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[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

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13 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said:

We officially have a 5.6% chance of making the playoffs.  Sorry to burst your balloon.  Save your energy for the 21-22 season.

We're not out of the running yet.  Long shots, yes, but so were the Blues a couple of seasons back.  The fat lady is warming up her voice, but has not yet begun to sing.

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Flames play the Habs tonight. 
 

If Flames win they leapfrog us for 5th place and if the Habs win they extend the lead at 4th place. 
 

MTL keep getting points. They have more OT losses than regulation this year and have points in their last 8/10 games. 

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23 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

Flames play the Habs tonight. 
 

If Flames win they leapfrog us for 5th place and if the Habs win they extend the lead at 4th place. 
 

MTL keep getting points. They have more OT losses than regulation this year and have points in their last 8/10 games. 

It is clear from what you are saying that it comes down to our remaining series with Edm and Calgary . Tor,  Mtl and Wpg are uncatchable.

 

Canucks have 6 games remaining against Edm and 4 against Calgary.

 

If they go 5 - 1 vs Edm and 3 - 1 vs Cal they will be in a race for the 4th and final playoff spot until the end of the season.

 

However, that is no easy feat. Their start put them behind the eight ball - but there is still a path remaining.

 

Let's see what happens Saturday vs Edm. It is the first of 10 games vs Edm and Cal that will ultimately determine the Canucks playoff fortunes for this year.

 

People who are not math majors have made prognostications that are faulty.  This year with 9 and 10 games against each division rival it is not a year where winning percentages up to a point in time mean a whole lot.  It is the series against the teams battling for the 4th playoff spot that count. Those series have  not yet been settled.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A very long-shot to make the playoffs; for sure.  I feel they’re too inconsistent and lacking size and toughness to make it. Just look at the April schedule and several long road trips. 
 

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13 minutes ago, fanfor42 said:

People who are not math majors have made prognostications that are faulty.  This year with 9 and 10 games against each division rival it is not a year where winning percentages up to a point in time mean a whole lot.  It is the series against the teams battling for the 4th playoff spot that count. Those series have  not yet been settled.

While beating the right teams can make a big difference (in catching them), it's not the only factor.  In the end it comes down to how many games you win vs. how many games your opponents win, whether in the head to head matches or otherwise.  As much of a fan of Math as I am, it's really very simple.

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17 minutes ago, fanfor42 said:

It is clear from what you are saying that it comes down to our remaining series with Edm and Calgary . Tor,  Mtl and Wpg are uncatchable.

 

Canucks have 6 games remaining against Edm and 4 against Calgary.

 

If they go 5 - 1 vs Edm and 3 - 1 vs Cal they will be in a race for the 4th and final playoff spot until the end of the season.

 

However, that is no easy feat. Their start put them behind the eight ball - but there is still a path remaining.

 

Let's see what happens Saturday vs Edm. It is the first of 10 games vs Edm and Cal that will ultimately determine the Canucks playoff fortunes for this year.

 

People who are not math majors have made prognostications that are faulty.  This year with 9 and 10 games against each division rival it is not a year where winning percentages up to a point in time mean a whole lot.  It is the series against the teams battling for the 4th playoff spot that count. Those series have  not yet been settled.

 

 

 

 

 

 

There’s a lot more too it than just the matchup. Other teams could end up giving us trouble like they have while teams like the Flames and Oilers could grab points vs the other 5 teams in the division. 
 

Also IDK if we can really take the series that well vs McDavid/Draisaitl. Especially now that they’re heating up again. They’ve won 3 straight now and 7 of their last 10 games. 
 

Probably take another couple weeks to see how the Flames react to Sutter. They’re a complete unknown but Marky alone should help them be stay afloat if they are able to figure it out in front of him. 
 

We’re in rough and that’s being optimistic. 

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27 minutes ago, RogersTowell said:

While beating the right teams can make a big difference (in catching them), it's not the only factor.  In the end it comes down to how many games you win vs. how many games your opponents win, whether in the head to head matches or otherwise.  As much of a fan of Math as I am, it's really very simple.

Current records:

Edm  17 - 11 - 0

Cal    11 - 12 - 3

Vcr    12 - 16 - 2

 

Van plays Edm 6 more times and Cal 4 more times.  My point.  If Van goes 5 and 1 vs Edm and 3 and 1 vs Cal then ignoring all other games the team's records would be as follows:

Edm  18 - 16 -0

Cal    12 - 15 - 3

Vcr    20 - 18 - 2

 

All I have said is if the Canucks go 5 and 1 vs Edm and 3 and 1 vs Cal the rest of the way they will be in a playoff race with those two teams for the last playoff spot right down to the end of the season.  Is it likely?  Maybe not. Is it a path to the playoffs that has not yet closed?  Of course.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, fanfor42 said:

 

People who are not math majors have made prognostications that are faulty.  This year with 9 and 10 games against each division rival it is not a year where winning percentages up to a point in time mean a whole lot.  It is the series against the teams battling for the 4th playoff spot that count. Those series have  not yet been settled.

Except that people who keep talking about 4 point games and how that makes it easier to come back are forgetting the other side of that which exists.  All the teams we are chasing play each other more times combined than we play them.  That means each of those is a "4 point game" with guaranteed points to at least one team we need to catch up to.

It isn't a matter of chasing down a single team, it is chasing down a pack of 5 teams that are ahead of us.  Like tonight for example where 4 of the 5 teams ahead of us are playing each other.  Two of them AT LEAST will get points out of those games guaranteed.  Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Montreal are all clustered together in a fairly tight pack once you correct for games played... so none of them are particularly more "uncatchable" than the others.  Toronto is the only team with any separation from that pack.  Calgary is also well ahead of us when you account for their 4 games in hand.  If Calgary wins tonight they get further ahead of us, and if Montreal wins... that final playoff spots gets even more out of reach.... there is no 3rd option where we don't end up in a worse playoff position at the end of the night.

Our only chance IN ADDITION TO playing crazy lights out good against the 4 teams we are realistically chasing... we also need them not to split games or have games go to OT.   We could do everything right and play our brains out, but we also need two of those teams we are chasing to play well under .500

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22 hours ago, fanfor42 said:

Current records:

Edm  17 - 11 - 0

Cal    11 - 12 - 3

Vcr    12 - 16 - 2

 

Van plays Edm 6 more times and Cal 4 more times.  My point.  If Van goes 5 and 1 vs Edm and 3 and 1 vs Cal then ignoring all other games the team's records would be as follows:

Edm  18 - 16 -0

Cal    12 - 15 - 3

Vcr    20 - 18 - 2

 

All I have said is if the Canucks go 5 and 1 vs Edm and 3 and 1 vs Cal the rest of the way they will be in a playoff race with those two teams for the last playoff spot right down to the end of the season.  Is it likely?  Maybe not. Is it a path to the playoffs that has not yet closed?  Of course.

 

 

oh you just forgot to factor in edmonton have 6 games in hand based on ur standing lol if we go 5-1 and 3-1 highly unlikely more like we go 50/50 

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23 hours ago, fanfor42 said:

Current records:

Edm  17 - 11 - 0

Cal    11 - 12 - 3

Vcr    12 - 16 - 2

 

Van plays Edm 6 more times and Cal 4 more times.  My point.  If Van goes 5 and 1 vs Edm and 3 and 1 vs Cal then ignoring all other games the team's records would be as follows:

Edm  18 - 16 -0

Cal    12 - 15 - 3

Vcr    20 - 18 - 2

 

All I have said is if the Canucks go 5 and 1 vs Edm and 3 and 1 vs Cal the rest of the way they will be in a playoff race with those two teams for the last playoff spot right down to the end of the season.  Is it likely?  Maybe not. Is it a path to the playoffs that has not yet closed?  Of course.

 

 

My fantasy/dream is much more realistic than yours.

 

We miss playoffs win the draft lottery for the 1st overall and add another top tier young kid to our team. 

 

Making the playoffs is next to impossible now..

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  • Provost changed the title to [Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

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