[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

[The Lock]

Arrogance is for the weak-minded. That's all I'm going to say.

[Junkyard Dog]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

I haven’t had this many people disagree with me (mostly the same ones) since I suggested in the middle of last season that Virtanen was likely having a statistical “blip” in performance and would regress back to his norm.  All of the same type of wording on the  responses back then about how I was insane and he had turned a corner in development and was finally a star player.

 

This is familiar territory from quite a number of times I posted something unpopular.

 

This will likely follow the same well worn pattern:

1.  Folks are shocked and angry, flaming me with all sorts of ad hominem attacks 

2.  History proves me to be right.

3.  Those people pretended they knew it all along or that no one could have predicted it.

4.  Rinse, Repeat.  
 

I hope we beat the odds and go on a tear, or Winnipeg takes off and steals all the points from both Edmonton and Calgary.  I just wouldn’t impact our future for those hopes.
 

 

I don’t disagree. I just think you’re calling it in too early. 
 

If by a month from now we are well out of it then you gave players the opportunity to fight for a spot and it wasn’t enough then you trade the assets you can(UFAs). 
 

Personally I think Canada is gonna trade within Canada too since waiting an extra week could prove costly when if another Canadian team trades within the division they’ll have that player a week earlier. 
 

US teams are likely gonna trade within each other as well. Just way easier. 
 

Teams are going through that process of deciding whether or not they need to trade and by a month from now they’ll be more injuries that would play a factor as well(like the Toffoli trade with the Boeser injury)

[freshhprince95]

I think this post is titled exactly how it is... "almost" out of reach. As much I want to remain optimistic about our playoff chances, the reality is that we're currently on pace to not do so. However, I think it's important you take into account that, yes, while it's only divisional games and a team will always be getting points, this also means that a team is not getting points\losing. If we just take these next few games for example, if the Canucks can go 4-0 this drastically changes the % of us making it to the playoffs. 

 

just looking at the schedule for each of the teams we're chasing: WPG, EDM & CGY --- look what a 4 game winning streak and a conservative prediction for the other teams' 4 games could do.

 

WPG: 2-2(2 losses against VAN) \ 23pts - 20gp (0.575P%) 

EDM: 2-2(2 losses against VAN\2 wins against CGY) \ 24pts - 22gp (0.545P%)

CGY: 2-2(2 losses against EDM\2 wins against TOR| \ 21pts - 20gp (0.525P%)

VAN: 4-0 \ 25pts - 24gp (0.521P%) 

 

just like that we're back in the race especially considering we realistically only have to beat out EDM & CGY for that 4th spot AND we play them each about 5 more times. I still think it's relatively early to completely count us out since the outlook could look completely different in a week due to divisional games, but hey, if we don't go 4-0 as I mentioned above it only becomes a steeper hill to climb. 

 

 

 

[BPA]

[Provost]

17 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

I don’t disagree. I just think you’re calling it in too early. 
 

If by a month from now we are well out of it then you gave players the opportunity to fight for a spot and it wasn’t enough then you trade the assets you can(UFAs). 
 

Personally I think Canada is gonna trade within Canada too since waiting an extra week could prove costly when if another Canadian team trades within the division they’ll have that player a week earlier. 
 

US teams are likely gonna trade within each other as well. Just way easier. 
 

Teams are going through that process of deciding whether or not they need to trade and by a month from now they’ll be more injuries that would play a factor as well(like the Toffoli trade with the Boeser injury)

I didn’t suggest that we trade players now at all, that would be a bad idea for a number of reasons.. mostly because you should be able to show them you gave them every chance.  Even use it to challenge them... “you guys need to put together a bunch of wins in the next two weeks... or we may have to start looking ahead to next year”

The picture will likely look more obvious to everyone by the end of the month, after the March 2nd game.  6 more games, all against Edmonton and Winnipeg.  That is the chance for a Hail Mary run to win most of those games and get us back in the hunt.

 

I also believe that the trades will mostly happen within Canada.  The US teams just have a lot more possible partners and sellers available to them so the prices are probably going to be lower for rentals.

On the other hand, if on March 3rd the brass takes a realistic look at their chances... and if they remain less than 30% or so... they should move into active seller mode.

We would likely be asking for picks in return instead of roster players, so the quarantine isn’t as big of an issue since we would be making those trades plenty early enough for those players to get onto the US rosters (the quarantine going down to the US is much shorter than coming up).

If we can trade a couple of the obvious rentals like Sutter and Benn early to US teams, it could dramatically increase the later rental market within Canada.  With only us and Ottawa as likely sellers (with only a few suitable rental players) and 4–5 buyers trying to load up... we could charge a lot for a guy like Pearson, or maybe even be able to move someone with term like Roussel or Beagle, which would be a dream going into expansion and another tight UFA season.

That is my thought anyways of how to leverage the market.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Provost

[Gawdzukes]

1 hour ago, ImConfused said:

Nah I'm not buying it

For the exact same reason it's hard to catch up it's almost impossible to pull away. Everything being equal we end up 0-8 points back with 10 games left, at worst.  

[Provost]

20 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

For the exact same reason it's hard to catch up it's almost impossible to pull away. Everything being equal we end up 0-8 points back with 10 games left, at worst.  

Which is why it is pretty startling how far back we already are once you factor in games in hand everyone else has on us.  If we all play at the same winning %, the spread gets 3x as much as it does now... but likely Toronto and Montreal can’t keep up quite the pace they are at.

 

... and being just 5 points back of two teams with 10 games left is a great example of how hard it will be to gain ground. If those two teams we are chasing play each other a few times in that last 10 games (likely)... then it is hard for both of them to play under .500 and let us catch up.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Provost

[BCNate]

3 hours ago, Provost said:

It is nice to live in hope, but the unique way the league is set up this year means that we are practically unlikely, even if we are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Since it is only in division games, points will be awarded to the teams we are chasing on any given night.  The normal path to gain ground in a playoff chase from other seasons is that a team falters and loses points to non division rivals, meaning that we can catch them just by playing better than they do.  That simply doesn't exist this year.

Since we have already fallen behind, we don't have to catch one team to make the playoffs, we have to surpass two of the three teams above us (Toronto and Montreal are already out of reach).

The three teams we are realistically chasing play around 20 more games against each other... meaning we have no chance at all of gaining ground on them those games, even if we won 100% of our games on the same night (which we obviously won't).  At least two points will be awarded to one of the teams we are chasing, and sometimes 3 points.  We only have a chance of matching or losing ground in a big chunk of the remaining games to be played by our rivals against each other.

That is a big chunk of the season remaining and opportunities to catch up.  Once you correct for games in hand and winning percentages, we are currently:
- about 4.2 points behind Calgary
- about 6.75 points behind Winnipeg
- about 5.2 points behind Edmonton

Assuming around 63 points to make the playoffs that means we would have to play .640 hockey the rest of the way out (23-13 record).  The teams we are chasing only need to crack .550 the rest of the way out to stay ahead of us and reach that 63 points plateau.  Specifically, only two of them need to hit that mark for us to not make the playoffs even if we went on a huge hot streak.  Refer back to the above point where they play each other a lot and at least one team is going to get points and it will be harder for them all to drop to lower than .500 since they are sharing so many guaranteed points between them.

So, unlike most seasons... we have only a few paths to the playoffs now and they are much more limited and unlikely than in normal years.

1.  Toronto and Montreal basically run the table when they play at least 2 of Calgary, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.. but Toronto and Montreal don't dominate us in similar fashion so we can make up points in those games.
2.  Ottawa steals a bunch of points from two of those three teams we are chasing (but not so much that Ottawa passes us as well), but doesn't steal points from us in similar fashion.
3.  We win around 3/4ths of our remaining games against two of the three teams we are chasing

All of those are possible, but not terribly likely.  Our current odds of making the playoffs sit at 15-17% according to sites like Moneypuck.

Our next 6 games are against those teams we are chasing.  We probably have to go 5-1 over that stretch to have made up any ground at all on at least two of the teams we need to pass (gaining ground on one team doesn't do us any good since they would be giving up points to one of the other teams we are also chasing at the same time).  Going 3-3 even probably puts the practical seal on our playoff chances since there would be far fewer games left at that point to make up the ground still needed... 
 

Of the Flames, Oilers, Jets, we've played the most road games, most games against Tor/Mtl, and the 2nd least games against Ottawa. The Jets for example play MTL or Toronto 18 of their next 40 games, and only against Ott 3 more times.  Less than half of those are at home. We play them and the Oilers 8 more times each, ultimately that will determine our outcome

 

 In a condensed division only season, that matters.  We've been really good in our last 5 games ever since we have had some time to practice.  If we continue to play that way, we will be fine, I think we are capable of getting on a bit of a role over the next two week.  I do agree that 4-2 or 5-1 has to be the goal.

[Gawdzukes]

46 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

I don’t disagree. I just think you’re calling it in too early. 
 

If by a month from now we are well out of it then you gave players the opportunity to fight for a spot and it wasn’t enough then you trade the assets you can(UFAs). 
 

Personally I think Canada is gonna trade within Canada too since waiting an extra week could prove costly when if another Canadian team trades within the division they’ll have that player a week earlier. 
 

US teams are likely gonna trade within each other as well. Just way easier. 
 

Teams are going through that process of deciding whether or not they need to trade and by a month from now they’ll be more injuries that would play a factor as well(like the Toffoli trade with the Boeser injury)

This is a good point, if we're deemed to be sellers that's going to be a good market place. 5 buyers 2 sellers

[nux_win]

There's no point in being too rational about it.  I mean we are supposedly fans after all.  As long as there is even a small chance then that's what we should be aiming for.  Both players and fans should be giving everything we have to make it happen, realistic or not.  Otherwise what's the point?  As far as I'm concerned giving up is never an option no matter how bad things look.  Go Canucks Go! 

[mll]

50 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

I don’t disagree. I just think you’re calling it in too early. 
 

If by a month from now we are well out of it then you gave players the opportunity to fight for a spot and it wasn’t enough then you trade the assets you can(UFAs). 
 

Personally I think Canada is gonna trade within Canada too since waiting an extra week could prove costly when if another Canadian team trades within the division they’ll have that player a week earlier. 
 

US teams are likely gonna trade within each other as well. Just way easier. 
 

Teams are going through that process of deciding whether or not they need to trade and by a month from now they’ll be more injuries that would play a factor as well(like the Toffoli trade with the Boeser injury)

They will probably try and time the trades for when teams play each other.  They can avoid quarantine that way as the player just goes from his former’s team “bubble” to his new team’s.

[Junkyard Dog]

40 minutes ago, Provost said:

I didn’t suggest that we trade players now at all, that would be a bad idea for a number of reasons.. mostly because you should be able to show them you gave them every chance.  Even use it to challenge them... “you guys need to put together a bunch of wins in the next two weeks... or we may have to start looking ahead to next year”

The picture will likely look more obvious to everyone by the end of the month, after the March 2nd game.  6 more games, all against Edmonton and Winnipeg.  That is the chance for a Hail Mary run to win most of those games and get us back in the hunt.

 

I also believe that the trades will mostly happen within Canada.  The US teams just have a lot more possible partners and sellers available to them so the prices are probably going to be lower for rentals.

On the other hand, if on March 3rd the brass takes a realistic look at their chances... and if they remain less than 30% or so... they should move into active seller mode.

We would likely be asking for picks in return instead of roster players, so the quarantine isn’t as big of an issue since we would be making those trades plenty early enough for those players to get onto the US rosters (the quarantine going down to the US is much shorter than coming up).

If we can trade a couple of the obvious rentals like Sutter and Benn early to US teams, it could dramatically increase the later rental market within Canada.  With only us and Ottawa as likely sellers (with only a few suitable rental players) and 4–5 buyers trying to load up... we could charge a lot for a guy like Pearson, or maybe even be able to move someone with term like Roussel or Beagle, which would be a dream going into expansion and another tight UFA season.

That is my thought anyways of how to leverage the market.

I see. My misunderstanding about some or what you’ve said. 

[Junkyard Dog]

1 minute ago, mll said:

They will probably try and time the trades for when teams play each other.  They can avoid quarantine that way as the player just goes from his former’s team “bubble” to his new team’s.

Interesting. Never knew that. That only applies to division to division in that sense. 

[xereau]

Mehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Gawdzukes]

16 minutes ago, Provost said:

Which is why it is pretty startling how far back we already are once you factor in games in hand everyone else has on us.  If we all play at the same winning %, the spread gets 3x as much as it does now... but likely Toronto and Montreal can’t keep up quite the pace they are at.

 

... and being just 5 points back of two teams with 10 games left is a great example of how hard it will be to gain ground. If those two teams we are chasing play each other a few times in that last 10 games (likely)... then it is hard for both of them to play under .500 and let us catch up.

Basically it just needs a reversal of the beginning on the year. We need one of those teams to go on a losing streak like we did and then voila, this situation needs to be completely re-evaluated at that point. Chances are if not us one of those teams runs into injury trouble, Covid, locker room riff, luck, you name it. If sports were linear I would be more inclined to agree. I see where you're  coming from but don't think it's as dire as you stated for the reasons I listed.

[Warhippy]

Every game is a 4 point game

Every game is against teams currently faster or more established then us in areas we evidently fall short at

When we put it together we're beasts

Toronto and Montreal have literally kicked us like a rented mule

Without the wins against Ottawa we're drafting top 5

 

IF there is ANY SINGLE ONE YEAR to have a step back, this is it.  I am not happy or sad about this year because it literally is the best possible year to have a soul searching team identity crisis after losing so many core pieces.

[Toyotasfan]

[Gawdzukes]

17 minutes ago, nux_win said:

There's no point in being too rational about it.  I mean we are supposedly fans after all.  As long as there is even a small chance then that's what we should be aiming for.  Both players and fans should be giving everything we have to make it happen, realistic or not.  Otherwise what's the point?  As far as I'm concerned giving up is never an option no matter how bad things look.  Go Canucks Go! 

The most important part of life is to know when you're beat and then give up immediately.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[King Heffy]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

And this post is exactly why this thread is necessary.  Too many people are buying into an illusion brought on by the fact we have played 20-30% more games than some teams ahead of us.

 

We are already 9 points behind Toronto this early and having played 4 games for every 3 games they have played.  Over a full season that means we would be far behind them in a playoff race even if they only got to play 13 games less.

 

We have gotten to play 4 games for every 3 Montreal has played... and they are well ahead of us.  That would be like them only getting to play 60 games in a season that we get to play 82... and still beating us.

 

It is actually hard to be this far behind so early with other teams having so many games in hand.  It is also why we have players showing up so well in that stats... they have played almost double the games of some other teams in the league... so are behind in PPG.

 

Games in hand only matter if you win them.  You think Edmonton will do well when Larsson and Nurse are gassed and they have no other NHLers on the blueline, not to mention the trash they have in their bottom 6?  You think Cahlgary will still win once Marky's gassed and they have to play a sieve like No Save Dave?  The scheduling issues that hit us are going to hit the other teams soon.

[Provost]

24 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Basically it just needs a reversal of the beginning on the year. We need one of those teams to go on a losing streak like we did and then voila, this situation needs to be completely re-evaluated at that point. Chances are if not us one of those teams runs into injury trouble, Covid, locker room riff, luck, you name it. If sports were linear I would be more inclined to agree. I see where you're  coming from but don't think it's as dire as you stated for the reasons I listed.

We need more than one of those teams to go on a losing streak is kind of the whole point.  We need 2 of 3 to go on big losing streaks which is hard to do when they are all playing each other half of the time... since one of them is always winning each of those games.  If we only had one team between us and a playoff spot, the path would be much wider.

A good example is between now and Sunday.  We play the Jets twice and Edmonton and Calgary play each other twice.  We can go 2-0 and the best we can do is not lose more ground in the race to get above the playoff bar.  Calgary and Edmonton are going to share a minimum of 4 points between them for these two games (and possibly up to 6 points) and we can only get 4 points.  Zero chance of gaining ground... literally impossible.  We might close ourselves in on Winnipeg, but still have 2 teams holding or gaining ground on us.. which is enough to keep us out of the playoff picture. 

If we split with Winnipeg, we are guaranteed to lose ground on the pack we are chasing since they have 4 points split between them and we need to gain on both... and we keep getting fewer opportunities to make up the existing gap each set of games that passes.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Provost