[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

[Provost]

5 minutes ago, RogersTowell said:

So just out of curiosity, what is the chances of making the playoffs now?  See how the world can change?

About 12.6%

[RogersTowell]

8 minutes ago, Provost said:

The reason why I would be the happiest if we made it is because I would understand (clearly more than you and most others) how historic a climb that would have been.  Based on most of the posts here, folks just think it is doable if a couple things fall our way.
There was an article in the Athletic that no team in the history of the league had come back to make the playoffs with under a 5% playoff odds. If we did that, it would be the first time it ever happened.  

The problem with that is that the Canucks have gone on a tear and the numbers have now changed.  We're no longer looking at a 5% chance.  The Athletic probably didn't do the same number crunching for the St Louis Blues the last time they won the cup.  They went from last place in the league to third in the Central and then won the cup.  Their probability of winning the cup in mid-January was close to zero using this methodology.

Edited March 20, 2021 by RogersTowell

[RogersTowell]

8 minutes ago, Provost said:

About 12.6%

So I assume you are using the estimates from here: https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgi

Which appears to be a slightly modified "if things go the way they've gone so far this season" with a bit of weighting towards recent performance.  It didn't predict the Blues cup run.  I'm not saying for sure that the Canucks make the playoffs but I think the odds are somewhat better right now than that.  If someone gives 8:1 odds against, it's probably worth taking that bet.

 

Edit to add: the hockey-reference predictions don't disclose their methodology, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.  My methodology?  Never underestimate a team with a hot young goalie.

Edited March 20, 2021 by RogersTowell

[Provost]

21 minutes ago, RogersTowell said:

So I assume you are using the estimates from here: https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgi

Which appears to be a slightly modified "if things go the way they've gone so far this season" with a bit of weighting towards recent performance.  It didn't predict the Blues cup run.  I'm not saying for sure that the Canucks make the playoffs but I think the odds are somewhat better right now than that.  If someone gives 8:1 odds against, it's probably worth taking that bet.

 

Edit to add: the hockey-reference predictions don't disclose their methodology, so I'd take it with a grain of salt.  My methodology?  Never underestimate a team with a hot young goalie.

That is the one I picked for that number.

 

There are ones that still have us much lower at 5%.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Money puck at 11.3%
http://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

Power rankings at 9.8%
http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/playoff-odds.php

 

All the bookies are giving us low chances of making the playoffs too.

They aren’t all dumb or mistaken.  The odds are the odds with some variation for how they weight things.  We can hope for things while still accepting reality.... that is OK.

Do I take an 8-1 odds for the Canucks making the playoffs too... probably, because I would be happy either way.  I would either win a ton of money or the Canucks would be in the playoffs.  I wouldn’t bet anything I couldn’t afford to lose though.  Those are really long odds, literally exactly what I hav said all along.

 

[JM_]

40 minutes ago, Provost said:

About 12.6%

numbers aside, at least the Canucks are putting themselves back in a position to benefit if one of MTL or Cowgary somehow self destruct. Not ideal, but at least they are playing for something. And your modelling goes out the window if Montreal drops 2 to Ottawa later this month. 

 

I like that the guys didn't fold like a cheap tent and give up. 

[Goal:thecup]

55 minutes ago, Provost said:

This long diatribe filled with anger, frustration and literally zero facts or evidence does nothing to help your argument that you aren’t sad and really need to go for a walk.

 

You can happily go look for “edited” posts, they put the date edited on them for your easy reference.  Please go find the posts I apparently made that suggest I want us to lose?

 

You can get someone to do the math for you if you need... but the odds are still the odds.  You call them uneducated, but haven’t included a single bit of evidence to provide any actual justification or citations to back that up? Just that it makes you sad and angry?

 

The reason why I would be the happiest if we made it is because I would understand (clearly more than you and most others) how historic a climb that would have been.  Based on most of the posts here, folks just think it is doable if a couple things fall our way.
There was an article in the Athletic that no team in the history of the league had come back to make the playoffs with under a 5% playoff odds. If we did that, it would be the first time it ever happened.  

Us doing that would make me ecstatic.

 

It is a little ironic, considering your user name, that I have to point out the goal is winning the Cup.  Those lot odds we face are just to squeak into the playoffs, not to win the Cup.  I expect our management to be focussing on the latter, not the former. If there are moves they can make which move the needle even a little towards improving our Cup chances in future years, I would like them to do that... even if it reduced our already remote chances of just making the playoffs this season.

Bull$&!#!

[Gurn]

1 hour ago, Goal:thecup said:

 

Back pedal like crazy; it's not going to help; it is all there for all to read. (But maybe you deleted and edited and changed things, eh?)

 

And I did read it all, not to put Paper Bags on your Fool Head, but to enjoy the show, like all the other popcorn-eaters in this thread; you got a problem with that?

 

[Memo to Mods:  Please bring back the Minus button.  Also, it would be handy to have a different emojis for laughing at the poster than for laughing with them.]

 

You made an ignorant (means uneducated, not stupid) post with an absolute claim that does not hold up to any reasonable analysis.

Then you added that stinky cherry on top of all your abusive and egotistical, let alone juvenile and uneducated posts, that you would be happier than everybody (to be proven wrong).

It was, and is, obvious to anyone with even a smattering of education in mathematics to determine that you were, and are, even despite your backpedaling, dead wrong.

Rather than admit it, you attack everyone personally.

 

So who is sad? 

The constant carper who erroneously thinks he knows everything and posts his ignorant conclusions on a Canuck forum?

Or all the others who come on here to read about our Canucks and have a good time?

 

I had a good time reading this thread; not because your input is correct, but because it was so ridiculous to pronounce your nonsense so early and with so much self-assumed authority that I was sure it was going to be a good time.

It has been great to read you backtracking and squirming around, changing this and that, and all the while still believing in yourself.

Well done, Blue Troll Ribbon for you.

 

You will be ecstatic if we make the playoffs?

What a joke!

You will still be 'proving' you were right all along.

But you are still encouraged to come along and enjoy the ride.

 

But, please refrain from calling me anything (let alone 'a pretty sad person'; another thing you are 100% wrong about: my nickname isn't "Smiley" because I mope around with dire predictions full of crap). 

It is delicious ironing that your sad self is lashing out in such a small-minded manner.

Sad in a way too, that you have to resort to this behavior to justify your place in this world.

Provost:  Runt of the Litter baying about no milk because the big dogs have all the teats.

 

Please refrain from telling me what to do.

If anyone needs to 'take a walk or something' it is you.

You go for a walk, chill out, get over yourself, and quit attacking everybody else!

It's not bad advice; just misdirected.

 

 

 

 

wow, Provost must have hit a nerve.

Not sure where he "told you what to do"?

He did say you need to go for a walk, he did not tell you to do so.

He said you are a sad person- so yah a jab there, your responses of "troll, Fool Head, runt of the litter, seem to respond in kind and at greater volume.So try not to get all hurt about"name calling" if you are going to do the same.

Edited March 20, 2021 by gurn

[Goal:thecup]

4 minutes ago, gurn said:

wow, Provost must have hit a nerve.

Not sure where he "told you what to do"?

He did say you need to go for a walk, he did not tell you to do so.

He said you are a sad person- so yah a jab there, your responses of "troll, Fool Head, runt of the litter, seem to respond in kind and at greater volume.So try not to get all hurt about"name calling" if you are going to do the same.

All on purpose in response to 34 pages of Provost attacking others.

Good for the gander etc.

 

[Gurn]

11 minutes ago, Goal:thecup said:

All on purpose in response to 34 pages of Provost attacking others.

Good for the gander etc.

 

As long as you are aware of the hypocrisy, fill your boots.

[Provost]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

 Hope it happens.  Van-TO...think the last time i've watched them play each other was 1994.   Easy win just take out Mathews. 

 

I was at the game where we won that series.

I was sitting two rows behind The Barenaked Ladies (the band, not actual naked ladies).  They were decked out in their Leafs gear and were being drunken obnoxious Leafs fans “kind of” in fun.  They took a serious razzing at the end of the game as they had to walk of shame out of there.

All the Canucks fans then marched in a parade down Hastings to downtown.

[Goal:thecup]

 

 

Hey Gurn, (unrelated),

Is that a Mars bomber in your pic?

 

And is it on Sproat Lake like this one is?

 

 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Goal:thecup
spelling

[Provost]

22 minutes ago, Goal:thecup said:

All on purpose in response to 34 pages of Provost attacking others.

Good for the gander etc.

 

Ok sparky... just like you aggressively going nuts now, it has been folks attacking me because they can’t attack the facts I presented.

 

I occasionally responded in kind.  I won’t bother responding in kind to you because you have provided zero substance to any of your posts other than you are angry and on full tilt.  
 

[Goal:thecup]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

Ok sparky... just like you aggressively going nuts now, it has been folks attacking me because they can’t attack the facts I presented.

 

I occasionally responded in kind.  I won’t bother responding in kind to you because you have provided zero substance to any of your posts other than you are angry and on full tilt.  
 

How generous of you.

How level-headed and kind you now are.

Thank you for growing up and behaving properly.

 

You can stop with the stupid, trolling, 'haven't provided this and that" crap.

I did not respond to the mountains of text you spewed because that was not the issue.

 

The issue was, you posted a statement as fact, that was actually mathematically unreasonable, and in fact ridiculous.

That much was, and still is, completely obvious; the Canucks were not out of the playoffs, and in fact, are still not out of the playoffs.

 

As the fact of the matter was thus settled, the rest is merely you trying to justify your ridiculous post and your passive-aggressive behavior and posturing.

There is nothing further to present as far as the facts go; there is merely more and more of you dancing around the real issue, that is, or has become, that you were wrong.

 

For me, it was amusing, but now that you're just lashing out and flopping around in your own circuitous delusions, I am bored.

I took you off 'Ignore' because I saw a couple of respected posters answering you but am happily returning you there.

 

Enjoy the game tonight.

I hope the Canucks win.

I believe we can still make the playoffs.

 

You can hope you learn to admit your mistakes, get over whatever prompts this behavior in the first place, and enjoy cheering for our team and hoping they have great success, rather than hoping you can "win" some imaginary battle where you can predict inanities and all will work out exactly as you predicted and all will bow to Provost The Great Prognosticator of 100% Guaranteed Doom and Gloom.  As ON succinctly put it, get over yourself.

 

You can hope, but 34 pages here and thousands of posts by you say otherwise, but hope, and try, and see if it isn't more fun being able to admit your mistakes, correct them and move on, engage in proper discourse, and cheer that good things happen for our Canucks, instead of cheering for the bad things that you have predicted.

 

Go Canucks Go!

 

[Me_]

42 minutes ago, Provost said:

I was at the game where we won that series.

I was sitting two rows behind The Barenaked Ladies (the band, not actual naked ladies).  They were decked out in their Leafs gear and were being drunken obnoxious Leafs fans “kind of” in fun.  They took a serious razzing at the end of the game as they had to walk of shame out of there.

All the Canucks fans then marched in a parade down Hastings to downtown.

...and then burned the town down.

 

Saw a guy with his eye ripped out from falling on a cement parking lot stopper after getting tear gassed...

 

...another one, drunk, climbed up the tram wires to retrieve a flying skate towel (), but the towel was on the other wire. ZAP. Falls. Cracks his head.

 

...as Granville bridge was closed down, we had to go by Hastings. I saw a car make a wrong turn and about 20 cops standing there while a female cop screamed at the poor lady driving, and proceeded to smash every window on the SUV as she was trying to get the hell out of there.

 

...the most fun of it all, was getting tear gassed on Denman, then having to run toward Davie street, only to get tear gassed again toward Granville. That was super fun. Blinded by burning. Who doesn’t like that!

 

To this day, I don’t remember any window smashing noise until the tear gas came.

 

Then the celebration began, Vancouver style.

 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Me_

[Gurn]

33 minutes ago, Goal:thecup said:

 

 

Hey Gurn, (unrelated),

Is that a Mars bomber in your pic?

 

And is it on Sproat Lake like this one is?

 

 

Yes, It is the Mars. Not sure where the pic was taken.

Second best flying boat of ww2 behind the Japanese H8K "Emily"- also called the flying porcupine.

Best water bomber ever.

Until you get beside the Mars, you really have no idea how absolutely MASSIVE it is.

[Me_]

4 minutes ago, gurn said:

Yes, It is the Mars. Not sure where the pic was taken.

Second best flying boat of ww2 behind the Japanese H8K "Emily"- also called the flying porcupine.

Best water bomber ever.

Until you get beside the Mars, you really have no idea how absolutely MASSIVE it is.

Well this gives it some perspective...

 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Me_

[Goal:thecup]

Just now, gurn said:

Yes, It is the Mars. Not sure where the pic was taken.

Second best flying boat of ww2 behind the Japanese H8K "Emily"- also called the flying porcupine.

Best water bomber ever.

Until you get beside the Mars, you really have no idea how absolutely MASSIVE it is.

Can confirm.

 

Know some of the principles involved in getting the Mars water bombers going, and pilots trained, etc.

Being on a lake when these beauties are working is something I don't think anyone would ever forget.

 

(Btw, that is one of the 9 meter dragon boats we introduced to Vancouver Island on the day that picture was taken).

 

And, I just had to go look up The Flying Porcupine!   Thanks.

[Gurn]

Love the Mars, but I alternate my avatar between the Mars, HMCS Algonquin and the Avro Arrow.

I've been thinking about adding this ship, HMCS Harry Dewolfe to the rotation though, it is absolutley beautiful.

[Provost]

41 minutes ago, Goal:thecup said:

How generous of you.

How level-headed and kind you now are.

Thank you for growing up and behaving properly.

 

You can stop with the stupid, trolling, 'haven't provided this and that" crap.

I did not respond to the mountains of text you spewed because that was not the issue.

 

The issue was, you posted a statement as fact, that was actually mathematically unreasonable, and in fact ridiculous.

That much was, and still is, completely obvious; the Canucks were not out of the playoffs, and in fact, are still not out of the playoffs.

 

As the fact of the matter was thus settled, the rest is merely you trying to justify your ridiculous post and your passive-aggressive behavior and posturing.

There is nothing further to present as far as the facts go; there is merely more and more of you dancing around the real issue, that is, or has become, that you were wrong.

 

For me, it was amusing, but now that you're just lashing out and flopping around in your own circuitous delusions, I am bored.

I took you off 'Ignore' because I saw a couple of respected posters answering you but am happily returning you there.

 

Enjoy the game tonight.

I hope the Canucks win.

I believe we can still make the playoffs.

 

You can hope you learn to admit your mistakes, get over whatever prompts this behavior in the first place, and enjoy cheering for our team and hoping they have great success, rather than hoping you can "win" some imaginary battle where you can predict inanities and all will work out exactly as you predicted and all will bow to Provost The Great Prognosticator of 100% Guaranteed Doom and Gloom.  As ON succinctly put it, get over yourself.

 

You can hope, but 34 pages here and thousands of posts by you say otherwise, but hope, and try, and see if it isn't more fun being able to admit your mistakes, correct them and move on, engage in proper discourse, and cheer that good things happen for our Canucks, instead of cheering for the bad things that you have predicted.

 

Go Canucks Go!

 

So those are a lot of words to say that you don’t actually have anything of substance to provide, just more diatribe.

 

What exactly was “ mathematically unreasonable” about my OP or ensuring posts?  Providing the actual math is unreasonable?  The playoffs weren’t likely out of reach?  The playoffs didn’t get even farther out of reach after the OP?  Those are objective facts.

 

Come on, I keep giving you opportunities to actually back up anything you are saying... you refuse to, presumably because you just enjoy going on tirades and don’t care about objective reality.

 

When I started this thread, the most generous models said between 10-17% chance to make the playoffs.  Those were bad odds, exactly what I said.  Since then (despite an 8-2 run that has suddenly got everyone hot and bothered again), our chances are even less at between 5-12.6%.  Many folks got onboard and acknowledged our extremely poor playoff odds were true, some folks are getting off again with a winning streak.  The truth is we were always going to win some games and lose some games, the net change in odds just had to be really big, and it hasn’t (as predicted by the math and me).

 

So ya, the playoffs were likely out of reach and are still out of reach.
 

Have a good day.

Edited March 20, 2021 by Provost

[RU SERIOUS]

3 hours ago, RogersTowell said:

So just out of curiosity, what is the chances of making the playoffs now?  See how the world can change?

11.9% now from 5.6% 10 days ago - according to MoneyPuck.    Still looks like Golfing to me in a few weeks - although I'd love to see them pull off a miracle!

Edited March 20, 2021 by RU SERIOUS