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[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

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8 hours ago, khay said:

Montreal may go well below .500 the rest of the way, although us going over .700 is highly unlikely if not impossible. If Montreal slumps around .450 point percentage, that will take them to around 59-60 points and we go around .600, that will give us 57-58 points. W will still miss the playoffs by that calculation but that should make the remaining games more interesting and fun to watch.

 

Take MTL's record against us out and MTL is 12-13-6.

 

MTL is 3-2-2 against Ottawa, so 9-11-4 against the remaining 4 teams.

 

MTL also owned EDM like they owned us: 4-1-0.

 

That means, their record against TOR, WPG, CGY is 5-10-4 -- 14 out of 38 points = 0.370 point percentage.

 

Of the remaining 16 games, they play Ottawa 3 times and Edmonton 4 times, which is bad news for us.

 

We basically need Ottawa to keep Montreal to about .500 point percentage and hope that Edmonton will win 3 of 4 against MTL.

 

But I don't expect our players to be in top condition to be able to put up .600 or better record against the opponents who are in mid season forms.

 

Habs have owned the Oilers even better than us. Have kept the Oilers to 7 goals in those 5 games which is pretty remarkable. They've scored more than double that vs them too.

 

How they can do that and still have some trouble vs the Sens is kind of mind-boggling. Goals are even at 20 vs the Sens in 7 games.

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The fate of Canucks overtaking Mtl is in Mtl’s hands, the fate of the Canucks over taking Edmonton and Calgary are still in the Canucks’ hands.  Until the Canucks fate is completely out of their hands “Now out of Reach” is overly strong/defeatist in my mind.  Don’t disagree that it is a steep slope to climb but anything can happen and I will only become defeatist when their fate is out of their hands, I am not so optimistic that I need to wait for them to be mathematically out unless there is still a chance with two weeks left

 

I do agree with the sentiment that finishing 17th to 22nd would be a wasted season but Covid pretty much pulled the plug on the season for us so they can tank without looking like they are tanking now but personally I am not a fan of lack of try, that breeds dressing room cancer.

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Posted (edited)

The OP was about being proactive and leveraging the trade deadline to accrue assets and then seeing what we have in some younger players.

 

Now that trade opportunity has passed (with a tiny bit of action) and ironically we have to play the kids due to Covid.  
 

Is there any path to the playoffs?

 

Everything has fallen our way with both Montreal and Calgary playing really badly... but we are still really far out of it.

 

Even though the odds now are still about the same (a little better at around 18%) than weeks ago, there does seem to be a glimmer of hope.

 

Mainly, will a bunch of kids in the bottom six who are playing for NHL jobs be more able to scrabble out a few extra wins at a time late in the season when other teams start coasting and resting up for playoff runs?  It would have been better if our last games were against Toronto, Winnipeg, and Edmonton as their playoff position might be baked in at that point and would be resting key players for the final few games.  Now it will be pride games against Calgary to close things off.

 

Possible?  We have to win 5 in a row just to get anywhere near close to a 50% chance to win, and that is unlikely especially if Petterson and Demko are out over that period.

 

With the deadline having passed and no more opportunity to improve the team longer term, I hope they at least play the younger guys and see if there is anyone that is close to ready, or that should be re-signed.  We really need to see Rathbone and Juolevi as their readiness is going to have a lot to do with whether Edler coming back is realistic or a priority... or at least to give us leverage in negotiations.

 

 

Edited by Provost
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59 minutes ago, Provost said:
 

Is there any path to the playoffs?

Two now:

 

Win all our remaining games in regulation and we are guaranteed to finish ahead of Mtl and Edm as of Montreal’s loss last night

 

the Edmonton path has always been there, 5 if their last 12 games are against us and we get to tune up against TO and OTT before facing them.  Thank you NHL for pushing last weeks EDM games 

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Mtl has 13 games left

 

3 vs Cgy

2 vs OTT

4 vs TOR

1 vs WPG

3 vs EDM

 

they are 3-7 over the last 10.  I struggle seeing them go .500 with that schedule and how they are playing but if they do that’s 60 points. 57-58 seems more realistic.

 

we need 24 of 36 available points for 61 points.

 

This is very doable with 4 games vs OTT and another 4 vs CGY

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12 hours ago, Provost said:

The OP was about being proactive and leveraging the trade deadline to accrue assets and then seeing what we have in some younger players.

 

Now that trade opportunity has passed (with a tiny bit of action) and ironically we have to play the kids due to Covid.  
 

Is there any path to the playoffs?

 

Everything has fallen our way with both Montreal and Calgary playing really badly... but we are still really far out of it.

 

Even though the odds now are still about the same (a little better at around 18%) than weeks ago, there does seem to be a glimmer of hope.

 

Mainly, will a bunch of kids in the bottom six who are playing for NHL jobs be more able to scrabble out a few extra wins at a time late in the season when other teams start coasting and resting up for playoff runs?  It would have been better if our last games were against Toronto, Winnipeg, and Edmonton as their playoff position might be baked in at that point and would be resting key players for the final few games.  Now it will be pride games against Calgary to close things off.

 

Possible?  We have to win 5 in a row just to get anywhere near close to a 50% chance to win, and that is unlikely especially if Petterson and Demko are out over that period.

 

With the deadline having passed and no more opportunity to improve the team longer term, I hope they at least play the younger guys and see if there is anyone that is close to ready, or that should be re-signed.  We really need to see Rathbone and Juolevi as their readiness is going to have a lot to do with whether Edler coming back is realistic or a priority... or at least to give us leverage in negotiations.

 

 

There isn't just a glimmer of hope, They are making the playoffs period no doubt about it.

 

They can win with the kids in or out it doesn't matter what they do they are getting into the playoffs 

Edited by Arrow 1983
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On 2/18/2021 at 12:33 PM, Provost said:

It is nice to live in hope, but the unique way the league is set up this year means that we are practically unlikely, even if we are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Since it is only in division games, points will be awarded to the teams we are chasing on any given night.  The normal path to gain ground in a playoff chase from other seasons is that a team falters and loses points to non division rivals, meaning that we can catch them just by playing better than they do.  That simply doesn't exist this year.

Since we have already fallen behind, we don't have to catch one team to make the playoffs, we have to surpass two of the three teams above us (Toronto and Montreal are already out of reach).

The three teams we are realistically chasing play around 20 more games against each other... meaning we have no chance at all of gaining ground on them those games, even if we won 100% of our games on the same night (which we obviously won't).  At least two points will be awarded to one of the teams we are chasing, and sometimes 3 points.  We only have a chance of matching or losing ground in a big chunk of the remaining games to be played by our rivals against each other.

That is a big chunk of the season remaining and opportunities to catch up.  Once you correct for games in hand and winning percentages, we are currently:
- about 4.2 points behind Calgary
- about 6.75 points behind Winnipeg
- about 5.2 points behind Edmonton

Assuming around 63 points to make the playoffs that means we would have to play .640 hockey the rest of the way out (23-13 record).  The teams we are chasing only need to crack .550 the rest of the way out to stay ahead of us and reach that 63 points plateau.  Specifically, only two of them need to hit that mark for us to not make the playoffs even if we went on a huge hot streak.  Refer back to the above point where they play each other a lot and at least one team is going to get points and it will be harder for them all to drop to lower than .500 since they are sharing so many guaranteed points between them.

So, unlike most seasons... we have only a few paths to the playoffs now and they are much more limited and unlikely than in normal years.

1.  Toronto and Montreal basically run the table when they play at least 2 of Calgary, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.. but Toronto and Montreal don't dominate us in similar fashion so we can make up points in those games.
2.  Ottawa steals a bunch of points from two of those three teams we are chasing (but not so much that Ottawa passes us as well), but doesn't steal points from us in similar fashion.
3.  We win around 3/4ths of our remaining games against two of the three teams we are chasing

All of those are possible, but not terribly likely.  Our current odds of making the playoffs sit at 15-17% according to sites like Moneypuck.

Our next 6 games are against those teams we are chasing.  We probably have to go 5-1 over that stretch to have made up any ground at all on at least two of the teams we need to pass (gaining ground on one team doesn't do us any good since they would be giving up points to one of the other teams we are also chasing at the same time).  Going 3-3 even probably puts the practical seal on our playoff chances since there would be far fewer games left at that point to make up the ground still needed... 

 

Edit:  as of 26 February, the odds sit around 2.5%.  No team has ever come back from under 4%.  All the wailing and gnashing of teeth in the first few pages by folks can be moved on from by any reasonable person.  In reality though, we were always going to lose 3 games eventually and other teams we were chasing them would win some.  It just happened quickly.
 

Lier 

 

all lies 

 

The Canucks are making the playoffs 

 

The Bolded part is a lie did MTL get points in their last 2 games? 

 

Is MTL 3-7-0 In their last 10 games?

 

Does MTL suck?

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On 2/18/2021 at 12:33 PM, Provost said:

It is nice to live in hope, but the unique way the league is set up this year means that we are practically unlikely, even if we are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Since it is only in division games, points will be awarded to the teams we are chasing on any given night.  The normal path to gain ground in a playoff chase from other seasons is that a team falters and loses points to non division rivals, meaning that we can catch them just by playing better than they do.  That simply doesn't exist this year.

Since we have already fallen behind, we don't have to catch one team to make the playoffs, we have to surpass two of the three teams above us (Toronto and Montreal are already out of reach).

The three teams we are realistically chasing play around 20 more games against each other... meaning we have no chance at all of gaining ground on them those games, even if we won 100% of our games on the same night (which we obviously won't).  At least two points will be awarded to one of the teams we are chasing, and sometimes 3 points.  We only have a chance of matching or losing ground in a big chunk of the remaining games to be played by our rivals against each other.

That is a big chunk of the season remaining and opportunities to catch up.  Once you correct for games in hand and winning percentages, we are currently:
- about 4.2 points behind Calgary
- about 6.75 points behind Winnipeg
- about 5.2 points behind Edmonton

Assuming around 63 points to make the playoffs that means we would have to play .640 hockey the rest of the way out (23-13 record).  The teams we are chasing only need to crack .550 the rest of the way out to stay ahead of us and reach that 63 points plateau.  Specifically, only two of them need to hit that mark for us to not make the playoffs even if we went on a huge hot streak.  Refer back to the above point where they play each other a lot and at least one team is going to get points and it will be harder for them all to drop to lower than .500 since they are sharing so many guaranteed points between them.

So, unlike most seasons... we have only a few paths to the playoffs now and they are much more limited and unlikely than in normal years.

1.  Toronto and Montreal basically run the table when they play at least 2 of Calgary, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.. but Toronto and Montreal don't dominate us in similar fashion so we can make up points in those games.
2.  Ottawa steals a bunch of points from two of those three teams we are chasing (but not so much that Ottawa passes us as well), but doesn't steal points from us in similar fashion.
3.  We win around 3/4ths of our remaining games against two of the three teams we are chasing

All of those are possible, but not terribly likely.  Our current odds of making the playoffs sit at 15-17% according to sites like Moneypuck.

Our next 6 games are against those teams we are chasing.  We probably have to go 5-1 over that stretch to have made up any ground at all on at least two of the teams we need to pass (gaining ground on one team doesn't do us any good since they would be giving up points to one of the other teams we are also chasing at the same time).  Going 3-3 even probably puts the practical seal on our playoff chances since there would be far fewer games left at that point to make up the ground still needed... 

 

Edit:  as of 26 February, the odds sit around 2.5%.  No team has ever come back from under 4%.  All the wailing and gnashing of teeth in the first few pages by folks can be moved on from by any reasonable person.  In reality though, we were always going to lose 3 games eventually and other teams we were chasing them would win some.  It just happened quickly.
 

More lies in the Bold

 

MTL was 12 pts ahead of the Canucks prior to the 2 games against Tor now they are only 8pts behind 

 

Is that not a gain

Edited by Arrow 1983
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On 2/18/2021 at 12:33 PM, Provost said:

It is nice to live in hope, but the unique way the league is set up this year means that we are practically unlikely, even if we are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Since it is only in division games, points will be awarded to the teams we are chasing on any given night.  The normal path to gain ground in a playoff chase from other seasons is that a team falters and loses points to non division rivals, meaning that we can catch them just by playing better than they do.  That simply doesn't exist this year.

Since we have already fallen behind, we don't have to catch one team to make the playoffs, we have to surpass two of the three teams above us (Toronto and Montreal are already out of reach).

The three teams we are realistically chasing play around 20 more games against each other... meaning we have no chance at all of gaining ground on them those games, even if we won 100% of our games on the same night (which we obviously won't).  At least two points will be awarded to one of the teams we are chasing, and sometimes 3 points.  We only have a chance of matching or losing ground in a big chunk of the remaining games to be played by our rivals against each other.

That is a big chunk of the season remaining and opportunities to catch up.  Once you correct for games in hand and winning percentages, we are currently:
- about 4.2 points behind Calgary
- about 6.75 points behind Winnipeg
- about 5.2 points behind Edmonton

Assuming around 63 points to make the playoffs that means we would have to play .640 hockey the rest of the way out (23-13 record).  The teams we are chasing only need to crack .550 the rest of the way out to stay ahead of us and reach that 63 points plateau.  Specifically, only two of them need to hit that mark for us to not make the playoffs even if we went on a huge hot streak.  Refer back to the above point where they play each other a lot and at least one team is going to get points and it will be harder for them all to drop to lower than .500 since they are sharing so many guaranteed points between them.

So, unlike most seasons... we have only a few paths to the playoffs now and they are much more limited and unlikely than in normal years.

1.  Toronto and Montreal basically run the table when they play at least 2 of Calgary, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.. but Toronto and Montreal don't dominate us in similar fashion so we can make up points in those games.
2.  Ottawa steals a bunch of points from two of those three teams we are chasing (but not so much that Ottawa passes us as well), but doesn't steal points from us in similar fashion.
3.  We win around 3/4ths of our remaining games against two of the three teams we are chasing

All of those are possible, but not terribly likely.  Our current odds of making the playoffs sit at 15-17% according to sites like Moneypuck.

Our next 6 games are against those teams we are chasing.  We probably have to go 5-1 over that stretch to have made up any ground at all on at least two of the teams we need to pass (gaining ground on one team doesn't do us any good since they would be giving up points to one of the other teams we are also chasing at the same time).  Going 3-3 even probably puts the practical seal on our playoff chances since there would be far fewer games left at that point to make up the ground still needed... 

 

Edit:  as of 26 February, the odds sit around 2.5%.  No team has ever come back from under 4%.  All the wailing and gnashing of teeth in the first few pages by folks can be moved on from by any reasonable person.  In reality though, we were always going to lose 3 games eventually and other teams we were chasing them would win some.  It just happened quickly.
 

63 was an old estimate from the beginning of the season

 

It is now 59-61 based on current Pt % you inflated the Numbers to make it look harder 

 

More lies

Edited by Arrow 1983
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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

63 was an old estimate from the beginning of the season

 

It is now 59-61 based on current Pt % you inflated the Numbers to make it look harder 

 

More lies

You are really on full tilt aren’t you?

 

Maybe look at the dates of the posts you are quoting?  More than two months ago.

 

The things you are spouting off about being “lies” were simple statements of mathematical fact.

Edited by Provost
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5 minutes ago, Provost said:

You are really on full tilt aren’t you?

 

Maybe look at the dates of the posts you are quoting?  More than two months ago.

 

The things you are spouting off about being “lies” were simple statements of mathematical fact.

It is 4/20

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11 minutes ago, Provost said:

You are really on full tilt aren’t you?

 

Maybe look at the dates of the posts you are quoting?  More than two months ago.

 

The things you are spouting off about being “lies” were simple statements of mathematical fact.

Lies Stats are only as good as people that read them

 

Most people who die of hypothermia were wearing a coat. Should people not wear coats in the cold

 

Math isn't simple. Math can't predict how 20 players are going to play game to game never mind a full season

Edited by Arrow 1983
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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

Lies Stats are only as good as people that read them

 

Most people who die of hypothermia were wearing a coat. Should people not wear coats in the cold

 

Math isn't simple. Math can't predict how 20 players are going to play game to game never mind a full season

You not understanding what probabilities are doesn’t mean they aren’t real.  We are talking probabilities, not statistics... if you are conflating the two, you should look them up before posting.  It isn’t a good look that you don’t understand the difference when going on tirades about people being ignorant.

 

Aside, from not knowing what the words you are using mean, your statements show your compete lack of understanding.  It is hard to predict one game using probabilities, but the law of large numbers means it becomes increasingly easy to predict a full season as it progresses.  A team can go on a 5 game winning streak or a 5 game losing streak... but over an entire season their performance is much more predictable.  The opposite of what you posted.

 

Also, stop lying.  Based on points percentage it is currently sitting at 62 points for us to make the playoffs.... not 59.  We still have about the same chance of making the playoffs now as we did when I started the thread... about 1 in 5 or 1 in 6... depends on the model.  One has us as high as 1 in 4.

 

Go take a walk and calm yourself down. Now that there aren’t any other choices or decisions to make regarding trades and asset management, we can all sit back and hope for the best for the team.

Edited by Provost
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54 minutes ago, Provost said:

You not understanding what probabilities are doesn’t mean they aren’t real.  We are talking probabilities, not statistics... if you are conflating the two, you should look them up before posting.  It isn’t a good look that you don’t understand the difference when going on tirades about people being ignorant.

 

Aside, from not knowing what the words you are using mean, your statements show your compete lack of understanding.  It is hard to predict one game using probabilities, but the law of large numbers means it becomes increasingly easy to predict a full season as it progresses.  A team can go on a 5 game winning streak or a 5 game losing streak... but over an entire season their performance is much more predictable.  The opposite of what you posted.

 

Also, stop lying.  Based on points percentage it is currently sitting at 62 points for us to make the playoffs.... not 59.  We still have about the same chance of making the playoffs now as we did when I started the thread... about 1 in 5 or 1 in 6... depends on the model.  One has us as high as 1 in 4.

 

Go take a walk and calm yourself down. Now that there aren’t any other choices or decisions to make regarding trades and asset management, we can all sit back and hope for the best for the team.

The 2002 Oakland As won 103 game and broke the American League record 20 wins in a row

 

In Math probabilities or statistics or law of average or any other form of math existing can not predict what happen in 2002.

 

So why did it happen. Because it can and that is what is going to happen with the Canucks believe it don't believe it doesn't matter you are going to see it happen. It is not suppose to a make sense some might call it chemistry. But it will happen the Canucks will make the playoffs enough said.

 

Edited by Arrow 1983
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7 hours ago, Provost said:

Also, stop lying.  Based on points percentage it is currently sitting at 62 points for us to make the playoffs.... not 59.

That’s an overly simplistic view, as I stated above, based on quality of competition and current state of the Habs I would challenge 62 points being their most probable finish.

 

They are in a downward spiral and running out of runway.


If you just look how MTL has played against the rest of the field excluding VAN their win % is 47.1% ignoring their poor play lately that puts them at 59 points.  If you take it a step further and look how they’ve played their remaining competition it also puts them at 59 points 

 

Now if you do the same with the Canucks and the Flames they look like this as of the 12th of May after MTL is done

 

Simple model (bulk % ignoring MTL for VAN and VAN for CGY)

 

Canucks at 52 points with 5 games left (1 vs Edm)

 

CGY at 47 points with four games left all vs Van (mathematically out)

 

Competition specific model

 

Canucks at 54 points 

Flames at 48 points (still mathematically out)

 

I give the Canucks better than 20% odds under those conditions and 13-15 points out of the next 12 games with 4 against OTT seems very achievable to be on the 50-50 mark for me

 

There is a lot of context this season that just can’t be modelled and the error bands on these models are huge to start with


If you just take the simple model to the end of the year it gives you 57 points for VAN.  There is a wide overlap in where both Van and Mtl could potentially finish

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, qwijibo said:

Montreal is leaving the door open. If they continue to flounder and Vancouver gets the last spot the Canucks deserve to go on a fairytale run to the cup 

it seems so. I don't know if they can do it, but if they can take 3/4 from Ottawa then things get really interesting. It won't be easy, Ottawa is a lot better than they were, but its also not unrealistic the way Holtby is playing and hopefully Demko is in the same form. 

 

I also like the new look bottom 6, even just from an energy pov. I don't think we'll get much scoring there but I like the new mix of players from a defensive pov.

 

May not see MacEwan back much tho. 

Edited by Jimmy McGill
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