Provost Posted April 21, 2021 Author Share Posted April 21, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, bbllpp said: That’s an overly simplistic view, as I stated above, based on quality of competition and current state of the Habs I would challenge 62 points being their most probable finish. Not overly simplistic at all. Your response has nothing to do with my post at all. I was responding to a post where a guy called me a liar and then proceeded to lie and make up numbers. The guy said that “based on points percentage”, the projected cut for us to make the playoffs was 59-61 points. That isn’t true. Based on points percentage it would be 62 points (61.2 for Montreal and us needing to beat that to pass them). He accused me of lying in a post I made in mid February when I posted that the expected cutoff was 63 points and that I was artificially inflating it. He lied by making stuff up in his post. None of that has anything to do with what the actual cutoff might be in the end and how teams are playing right now. It was an estimate more than 2 months ago of 63 points and it will still almost certainly be that +/- a couple points. Edited April 21, 2021 by Provost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbllpp Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Provost said: The guy said that “based on points percentage”, the projected cut for us to make the playoffs was 59-61 points. Missed that and yes saw he was grinding your gears I agree that 62 points would be a relatively high confidence cut off at this point As I presented previously, in my opinion with today’s understanding the 50% confidence finish for the Habs is less than that with a window of unlikely to finish more than 63 points and unlikely to finish less than 55 points. Using similar relative margins on the simple model I presented the Canucks fall within 52-62 points which is a significant overlap and I’d shift to 52-64 points given the nature of our schedule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted April 21, 2021 Author Share Posted April 21, 2021 (edited) 27 minutes ago, bbllpp said: Missed that and yes saw he was grinding your gears I agree that 62 points would be a relatively high confidence cut off at this point As I presented previously, in my opinion with today’s understanding the 50% confidence finish for the Habs is less than that with a window of unlikely to finish more than 63 points and unlikely to finish less than 55 points. Using similar relative margins on the simple model I presented the Canucks fall within 52-62 points which is a significant overlap and I’d shift to 52-64 points given the nature of our schedule I genuinely have no idea how it will turn out in the end. There are too few games for any predictive model to be very accurate as there isn’t enough runway for any unusual variation to even out. One team winning 5 games in a row or one team losing 5 games in a row is entirely possible. The road is still steeply uphill for us because we are well behind. Montreal and Vancouver have 7 more games combined against Calgary. We need Calgary to be good enough to win against Montreal but bad enough lose against us.... that is the path that has opened for us that wasn’t there beforehand. There ie overlap between the bell curve of possible end of season points predictions for us and Montreal... but most of their bell curve gives them an end of season that beats us. I am not actually fussed about it at this point. The OP was that we were far enough behind that it would have been smarter to try to move some assets out. Being proactive was the idea and playing the odds. Knowing that everything has pretty much fallen out way since, I would still do the same. The great thing is if you play the odds, you win more often than not. Now that point has passed so there are no real decisions to be made that can improve the team longer term... and nothing left aside from cheering for us to win. I think the new young bottom six gives us a better chance of of winning, and I would like to see how they fare and who we should keep going forward. I was in the stands the last time we played Toronto in the playoffs and there when we eliminated them. Just imagine our fan base and the sad Toronto Sports Network pundits if our pretty terrible roster that includes some of their cast offs gave Toronto another 1st round exit. Edited April 21, 2021 by Provost 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 11 hours ago, qwijibo said: Montreal is leaving the door open. If they continue to flounder and Vancouver gets the last spot the Canucks deserve to go on a fairytale run to the cup Yes. In my dream world the Canucks make the playoffs, win a round, then Petey returns, Podkolzin comes over, and they run with it all the way to the finals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbllpp Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Provost said: I genuinely have no idea how it will turn out in the end. There are too few games for any predictive model to be very accurate as there isn’t enough runway for any unusual variation to even out. One team winning 5 games in a row or one team losing 5 games in a row is entirely possible. The road is still steeply uphill for us because we are well behind. Montreal and Vancouver have 7 more games combined against Calgary. We need Calgary to be good enough to win against Montreal but bad enough lose against us.... that is the path that has opened for us that wasn’t there beforehand. There ie overlap between the bell curve of possible end of season points predictions for us and Montreal... but most of their bell curve gives them an end of season that beats us. I am not actually fussed about it at this point. The OP was that we were far enough behind that it would have been smarter to try to move some assets out. Being proactive was the idea and playing the odds. Knowing that everything has pretty much fallen out way since, I would still do the same. The great thing is if you play the odds, you win more often than not. Now that point has passed so there are no real decisions to be made that can improve the team longer term... and nothing left aside from cheering for us to win. I think the new young bottom six gives us a better chance of of winning, and I would like to see how they fare and who we should keep going forward. I was in the stands the last time we played Toronto in the playoffs and there when we eliminated them. Just imagine our fan base and the sad Toronto Sports Network pundits if our pretty terrible roster that includes some of their cast offs gave Toronto another 1st round exit. As you say the projections change daily with every win and loss on both sides Given how we played TOR there is hope. The will and desire to win is clearly there. I said in the GDT that we have 3 six game series which included last nights game. the warm up: OTT(4) and TOR(2) the make or break: TOR(1), EDM(4) and WPG(1) the gate to the promised land: WPG (1), EDM (1) and CGY (4) Treat them like playoff rounds where they need 4 wins in each. The writing will be on the wall by the end of the second series with MTL being done while we have 5 games left. Bizarre year turning into one of the most interesting finishes I’ve witnessed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 On 2/22/2021 at 4:55 AM, DefCon1 said: I would not re-up Sutter, no thanks. Bringing the same crew for next season will not make us improve the team at all. They should trade Sutter, Roussell, Gaudette and Virtanen. Demote Pearson to 3rd line and put Podkolzin on 2nd line. Bring in 4 new players to change our boat anchor of bottom 6. I also would not re-up Edler either, he is just too slow with the puck and we already have one in Myers. Benning shpuld target a 2 way #1 D man and a top 6 forward on top of signing Tryamkin, Podkolzin and giving Rathbone a chance. Podz is a RW. Why Pearson was signed . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devron Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 How are we all doing guys? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junkyard Dog Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Devron44 said: How are we all doing guys? For the first time in my life I am cheering for the Oilers. So just about as you could expect. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanfor42 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 (edited) As of tonight Canucks 6th in the north. 4 points out of 5th with 6 games in hand over Calgary. 8 points out of fourth with 5 games in hand on Mtl. Edited April 25, 2021 by fanfor42 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goal:thecup Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 On 4/21/2021 at 9:31 AM, Provost said: I genuinely have no idea how it will turn out in the end. - if you had opened this topic with that, you wouldn't have had to deal with so much push-back; just sayin'. One team winning 5 games in a row or one team losing 5 games in a row is entirely possible. - as it was when you opened with your ridiculous statement that the playoffs were already out of reach, "'Twas always thus" to quote Bettman. We need Calgary to be good enough to win against Montreal but bad enough lose against us.... that is the path that has opened for us that wasn’t there beforehand. - it is axiomatic that all paths that still exist have not yet been extinguished, and therefore have always been open; it is this failure to see all the possible outcomes that undermines your erroneous and fixed position. There ie overlap between the bell curve of possible end of season points predictions for us and Montreal... but most of their bell curve gives them an end of season that beats us. - sounds pseudointellectual and unlikely to get you through Stats 101. I am not actually fussed about it at this point. The OP was that we were far enough behind that it would have been smarter to try to move some assets out. Being proactive was the idea and playing the odds. Knowing that everything has pretty much fallen out way since, I would still do the same. The great thing is if you play the odds, you win more often than not. - sounds good; of course, you'd have to know how to properly calculate the odds, and in sports betting in particular, it is recommended that one remembers that the payout is only received when you are correct, there is no return whatsoever for the wrong bet no matter how great the odds received before the bet was placed. That's the thing about absolutes: you have to be absolutely correct. I hope you truly are not actually fussed about it at this point. You just ruffled the feathers of a couple old math nerds and we had a bit of fun with it. At least I did. Cheers Provost! All the best. And Go Canucks Go! PS Now that point has passed so there are no real decisions to be made that can improve the team longer term. - please don't pass on this conclusion to Canucks management, they still have a lot of work to do, like the ED, the entry draft, getting Tryamkin over here, sorting the wheat from the prospect chaff, etc, all stuff we just love to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU SERIOUS Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 On 4/21/2021 at 3:30 PM, Devron44 said: How are we all doing guys? After tonight's win against Ottawa the bookies have us at 11.5% of making the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mackcanuck Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mackcanuck Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, Mackcanuck said: 13 games remain 4 of those against CGY Those 2 back to back home and home games at the end of the season against CGY could be huge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
204CanucksFan Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Thought I'd drop this little nugget here from The Athletic's recap of last night: Combined with the Calgary Flames’ regulation victory over the Montreal Canadiens, who seem intent on leaving the door open for the chase pack on Saturday night, and Vancouver’s win shot its playoff odds up to 19 percent, per The Athletic’s in-house model. The margins are still incredibly fine; the club will likely need 20 points from its remaining 15 games, but 19 percent is within the realm of comprehensible possibility. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 It looks like we have a chance but we are playing an awful lot of games. I think every remaining game is either every other night or back to back. Players may hit the wall at one point. Hope they prove me wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dazzle Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 (edited) On 4/21/2021 at 9:31 AM, Provost said: I genuinely have no idea how it will turn out in the end. There are too few games for any predictive model to be very accurate as there isn’t enough runway for any unusual variation to even out. One team winning 5 games in a row or one team losing 5 games in a row is entirely possible. The road is still steeply uphill for us because we are well behind. Montreal and Vancouver have 7 more games combined against Calgary. We need Calgary to be good enough to win against Montreal but bad enough lose against us.... that is the path that has opened for us that wasn’t there beforehand. There ie overlap between the bell curve of possible end of season points predictions for us and Montreal... but most of their bell curve gives them an end of season that beats us. I am not actually fussed about it at this point. The OP was that we were far enough behind that it would have been smarter to try to move some assets out. Being proactive was the idea and playing the odds. Knowing that everything has pretty much fallen out way since, I would still do the same. The great thing is if you play the odds, you win more often than not. Now that point has passed so there are no real decisions to be made that can improve the team longer term... and nothing left aside from cheering for us to win. I think the new young bottom six gives us a better chance of of winning, and I would like to see how they fare and who we should keep going forward. I was in the stands the last time we played Toronto in the playoffs and there when we eliminated them. Just imagine our fan base and the sad Toronto Sports Network pundits if our pretty terrible roster that includes some of their cast offs gave Toronto another 1st round exit. People have been trying to tell you that there were lots of games to be played, so your thread was flawed and premature. This whole thread, not just you, illustrates how emotional and irrational this fanbase is. As for your other point, the possibility was always there because the season was far from 'over'. You just assumed - not correctly - that it was over. There were some classic nuggets that didn't age very well at the start by Buzzsaw, who thought the Canucks handed Calgary the cup at about 10 percent of the season. At least you're willing to reflect on a thread you made. Some people like Buzzsaw will continue to think that the Canucks handed the cup to Calgary long after we've made the playoffs... There are some other posters that won't even dare to reappear because they KNOW they were wrong. It's annoying for people to make 'bold' statements, but be unable to take responsibility for them. Edited April 25, 2021 by Dazzle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dazzle Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 10 hours ago, Goal:thecup said: Agreed with your points that are embedded in the other post. It's clear that a good portion of this fanbase doesn't actually know what they're talking about because they've let emotion take over their rational parts of the brain. I thought making a thread like this was pretty damn premature. If we go back later and see some of the posts made, we can just laugh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devron Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Why is the thread called Playoffs are outta reach? Just curious. Seemed like it was easy to edit it then why so hard to edit it now? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dazzle Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Just now, Devron44 said: Why is the thread called Playoffs are outta reach? Just curious. Seemed like it was easy to edit it then why so hard to edit it now? Yeah, the playoffs were never out of reach, but this thread does serve as a time capsule to see which posters made silly posts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devron Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dazzle said: Yeah, the playoffs were never out of reach, but this thread does serve as a time capsule to see which posters made silly posts. The thread was always premature but it picked up some steam there for awhile. Playoffs are never outta reach until you’re out unless it something completely ridiculous. They’ve battled this year after that rough start. We are in for a beauty finish here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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