[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

[JDLax16]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Hey everyone makes mistakes.   The guy who started the Burrows thread did too. lol ok that's a joke.  Kind of.   To me it was almost a certainty we wouldn't make it either.   But this  is hockey and you just never do know.   St. louis won a cup after years been a second tier contender and starting off really bad.   CHI won a cup and so did PIT with their young stars close enough to their ELCs running or just running out.   We aren't out yet.   Under normal circumstances we'd have gone one game away from the final last season.    So who the heck knows is what i'm trying to say.   Odds smodds.  If we do get in TO is in big trouble.   Don't think we'd get past the second round, but i didn't we would last year either.   This team has a special feel to it that's hard to pin down...but it's being noticed.  By quite a few hockey writers with no skin in it ( not canucks fans)... A little IT factor would suffice.   Nobody thought LA was special yet they repeated.  I still don't think they were all that special. 

Forgive my nitpick but chicago won a cup in between the kings’ victories 

[ChuckNORRIS4Cup]

If the Canucks can play tight close games push some to overtime so they don't get a regulation loss, just to get a point and get a win here and there they would probably make the playoffs and I'm shocked I'm even saying this after how poorly they played early in the season.

 

With the games in hand if the Canucks lost 5 in a row in overtime without playing Calgary or Montreal they would be ahead of Calgary and 3 points behind Montreal. It's definitely doable but it's up to the boys now.

[Dazzle]

3 hours ago, Provost said:

OK, I am tapping out because you can't be bothered to read the many times I literally linked the definition... or just choose to ignore it because it makes you look foolish.  You don't have any actual valid argument or anything to back up your smarmy rantings, so you are choosing to purposefully lie about a grammatical issue to try to obscure the fact you are (yet again) wrong.

I literally said "unlikely" in my OP and the title literally means "capable of being reached only with great difficulty"... you know.... unlikely... exactly like our chances of making the post-season.

So let me get this straight...

 

You haven't addressed how "out of reach" is understood the exact same way as you saying "unlikely". You've been questioned on that by me and by others... 

 

You haven't answered why you thought the playoffs was out of reach, despite the fact that two months worth of games had to be played first...

 

So your English is bad because you used the wrong phrase. Your math sucks because you were so certain that the Canucks were out of it.

 

But yeah, I didn't have a "valid" argument to you at all, according to you.

 

Keep your head buried in the sand there, Provost.

 

 

 

[Provost]

49 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

So let me get this straight...

 

You haven't addressed how "out of reach" is understood the exact same way as you saying "unlikely".

 

I literally copy and pasted the definition explaining that several times, as well as providing various links where it came from.  You are coming across as really sad and desperate by trying to ignore it repeatedly.

 

Words have more than one definition.  You are pretending that isn’t true and you are either wrong or lying.  Here is an elementary English lesson for you.

 

“Your posts are getting increasingly dumb.” 
 

Before you start jumping up and down and blathering about how I am wrong because you actually have the power of speech....

 

Your assignment is to go use Google and try to use context to figure out which definition I could possibly be using of the word “dumb”

 

You not understanding the math doesn’t make it not true.

 

Edited April 26, 2021 by Provost

[Dazzle]

24 minutes ago, Provost said:

I literally copy and pasted the definition explaining that several times, as well as providing various links where it came from.  You are coming across as really sad and desperate by trying to ignore it repeatedly.

 

Words have more than one definition.  You are pretending that isn’t true and you are either wrong or lying.  Here is an elementary English lesson for you.

 

“Your posts are getting increasingly dumb.” 
 

Before you start jumping up and down and blathering about how I am wrong because you actually have the power of speech....

 

Your assignment is to go use Google and try to use context to figure out which definition I could possibly be using of the word “dumb”

 

You not understanding the math doesn’t make it not true.

 

You're already invalidated.

[khay]

6 hours ago, Dazzle said:

SMH.

 

I am re-using something from March 29th, exactly one month after you claimed that the Canucks were "out of reach."

 

Below, here is where we stand as of RIGHT NOW.

 

Notice there's a difference. Montreal had 6 games in hand back then. Now we have 5 games in hand.

 

Also, in case you're clueless about the world around us, we have no idea what the effects of COVID are on players. This could have short and long term consequences, hence why I brought up COVID hurting us. So if there are any performance deficiencies (we have yet to see), this WILL hurt us. Most importantly, this threatens players' safety and health.

It was never out of reach then (one month ago), and it's not out of reach now. So that means your statement from TWO MONTHS AGO was wrong. Simply put, there were too many games left to play to make a DEFINITIVE statement that the odds were 'out of reach'. If you actually understood odds/probability, you'd realize that if you run something a thousand times, your chances for something happening (let's say a win for a lottery number) naturally INCREASE. Given that there were so many games left, how could you POSSIBLY say the Canucks were out of reach?

 

 

Look at this. 15 more games left to go. 8 points behind. Do the freaking math.

If it was out of reach before, how do you explain this situation now? Keep in mind, FIFTEEN GAMES TO PLAY. A MAXIMUM OF 30 points (very unlikely) to losing all FIFTEEN (also very unlikely). Also keeping in mind that the other teams are almost finished their games, thus our games in hand ARE difference makers. I am already taking into account that the other teams will be playing each other, thus making our ascent up the standing more difficult. WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE, and fairly reasonable one, thus this is a situation that isn't OUT OF REACH. The chance to make the playoffs isn't statistically irrelevant either.

 

Christ, Provost.

 

 

Good post.

 

But to be fair to the OP, he probably didn't think the Canucks would go on to post something like .650 point percentage in March/April and that Montreal would post sub .500 at the time of writing (.468 to be exact since Feb 18th -- http://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?reportType=game&dateFrom=2021-02-18&dateTo=2021-04-25&gameType=2&playerPlayedFor=franchise.1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,wins&page=0&pageSize=50).

 

I hope the Flames beat Montreal tomorrow in regulation, and that we keep on winning some games. That could make the last 4 games against the Flames like a mini play-in series.

 

 

 

[CanucksJay]

Ok @Dazzleand @Provost. I like both of you guys but this is a pissing match of semantics.

Provost obviously didn't see Montreal going 3-7 in their last 10 while Canucks go 6-3-1.

We wouldn't be arguing if Provost used the word "improbable". 

The odds were heavily stacked against our guys but we've managed to get some help and our guys have played really well for the last while. 

At this point, TDL moves have been made. Let's just cheer on our guys to finish strong and take the spot from Mtl. I think both Provost and Dazzle would agree on that front. 

[Dazzle]

42 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

Ok @Dazzleand @Provost. I like both of you guys but this is a pissing match of semantics.

Provost obviously didn't see Montreal going 3-7 in their last 10 while Canucks go 6-3-1.

We wouldn't be arguing if Provost used the word "improbable". 

The odds were heavily stacked against our guys but we've managed to get some help and our guys have played really well for the last while. 

At this point, TDL moves have been made. Let's just cheer on our guys to finish strong and take the spot from Mtl. I think both Provost and Dazzle would agree on that front. 

Yeah. I would love to see the Canucks claim a playoff spot against all odds. It would taste especially sweeter to see Provost try to weasel his way out of being wrong, like every other time he has.

[RU SERIOUS]

If they can manage to maintain 3 wins every 4 games like the past week we likely have a realistic chance to squeeze in - provided MTL &/or CGY don't go on a tear.   My fear is that once they get into playing almost every other night starting this week that they'll get worn out, especially in that they have are recovering from COVID.   

 

You never know and yes "it aint over till it's over" but it will be close to a miracle if they all the stars align and the get in.    Fingers crossed and I'll light a candle at church for them next Sunday!  Could be an interesting next few weeks........

[DownUndaCanuck]

Montreal is collapsing and Calgary is a very beat-able team. Our playoffs are once again in our own hands. We crapped the bed against Montreal when the race was extremely tight, but we can beat this Calgary team over and over again. 

 

We just about need to go 10-5-0 in the last 15 games to make the playoffs, assuming Montreal continue at this rate (with a <0.54 points percentage). 

 

We have:

2 games against Ottawa

2 games against Torronto

5 games against Edmonton

2 games against Winnipeg

4 games against Calgary

 

Sadly none of them are easy games. Ottawa have looked like a different team, they're proving they can compete and have beaten a lot of stronger teams lately including shutting us out.

Toronto will have big beef and it'll be almost impossible to win another 1 or 2 games against them after beating them so easily recently.

5 games against Edmonton could go either way.

Winnipeg have had their way with us all season

The final 4 games may decide the playoffs.

 

Realistically, I'm hoping we win the 2 against Ottawa, win 1 against Toronto, win 3 against Edmonton and hopefully win 1 against Winnipeg, leaving us at 7-4-0. That's still a massive job to be done against Calgary. 

 

That being said, Montreal have 1 game against Ottawa and the rest against Toronto or Edmonton so you never know, they may slip even further...

[DSVII]

What I'm getting the feeling of so far in this thread, are posters trying to convince a person who still has an 80%+ chance of being correct that he's wrong  a lot of our fates still depends on the performance Montreal and Calgary as much as it does us. If we do miss out then the prediction 2 months ago of being out of reach is still correct.

 

Reminds me of arguments I've had with posters about how they said our 1st round pick in 2016 was worthless and tanking wasn't worth it anyway because it dropped to 5th, but it doesn't change the fact the real value of having that pick before the lotto draw in the first place was the 13.5% chance of having 1st overall and the extra value of tanking was the additional 2% of odds that increased during the way before the draft occured. (in this case, before the games played out)

 

In any case it'll be an exciting race to a finish line. I wouldn't discount as well the three weeks covid has played in not just affecting our performance, but also the performance of our opponents who had to adjust their schedule for us. 

Edited April 26, 2021 by DSVII

[tas]

1 hour ago, DSVII said:

a lot of our fates still depends on the performance Montreal and Calgary as much as it does us.

I haven't been reading this thread, but this is empirically false. with their games in hand, the canucks control their own destiny. 

[CanucksJay]

23 minutes ago, tas said:

I haven't been reading this thread, but this is empirically false. with their games in hand, the canucks control their own destiny. 

Yes mathematically they do but they would have to win 4 out of 5 games in hand which is not impossible but very tough. A little more help on Mtl's remaining 10 games would make it easier for sure. 

[tas]

11 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

Yes mathematically they do but they would have to win 4 out of 5 games in hand which is not impossible but very tough. A little more help on Mtl's remaining 10 games would make it easier for sure. 

worry about the things you can control. 

[24K PureCool]

Let's just say it went from improbable to unlikely. 

 

Can't call something impossible until mathematically eliminated.

[spook007]

8 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Montreal is collapsing and Calgary is a very beat-able team. Our playoffs are once again in our own hands. We crapped the bed against Montreal when the race was extremely tight, but we can beat this Calgary team over and over again. 

 

We just about need to go 10-5-0 in the last 15 games to make the playoffs, assuming Montreal continue at this rate (with a <0.54 points percentage). 

 

We have:

2 games against Ottawa

2 games against Torronto

5 games against Edmonton

2 games against Winnipeg

4 games against Calgary

 

Sadly none of them are easy games. Ottawa have looked like a different team, they're proving they can compete and have beaten a lot of stronger teams lately including shutting us out.

Toronto will have big beef and it'll be almost impossible to win another 1 or 2 games against them after beating them so easily recently.

5 games against Edmonton could go either way.

Winnipeg have had their way with us all season

The final 4 games may decide the playoffs.

 

Realistically, I'm hoping we win the 2 against Ottawa, win 1 against Toronto, win 3 against Edmonton and hopefully win 1 against Winnipeg, leaving us at 7-4-0. That's still a massive job to be done against Calgary. 

 

That being said, Montreal have 1 game against Ottawa and the rest against Toronto or Edmonton so you never know, they may slip even further...

Not to be that guy, but last we all said that, we got our butts whipped by Lames in the 1st play off round... Lets not count our chicken until they are hatched  

In saying that you are absolutely right, we have an opportunity now, and it is not unrealistic anymore, as it is in our own hands. All we could really hope for after the lay off.

[DSVII]

1 hour ago, tas said:

I haven't been reading this thread, but this is empirically false. with their games in hand, the canucks control their own destiny. 

How is it empirically false? We haven't caught up to them in games played yet. We still have to win 4 out of our next 5 games to catch up to the Canadians and put us on equal footing and that hasn't happened. 

 

And if the Canadiens win any more games from now on we would be forced to maintain an even higher win percentage (>80%) starting today, just to overtake them . And this is from a team that has just reached 0.500, Is that not true?

 

I interpret controlling your own destiny as you are not heavily reliant on out of town scoreboards to make the playoffs, I don't think that is the case here especially in a year with intra divisional games only. The next three match ups between the Flames and the Habs are just as important as us winning our own games.

Perhaps the most accurate thing here is none of us three (flames, nucks, habs) control our destinies, they're all tied together 

 

[tas]

2 minutes ago, DSVII said:

How is it empirically false? We haven't caught up to them in games played yet. We still have to win 4 out of our next 5 games to catch up to the Canadians and put us on equal footing and that hasn't happened. 

 

And if the Canadiens win any more games from now on we would be forced to maintain an even higher win percentage (>80%) starting today, just to overtake them . And this is from a team that has just reached 0.500, Is that not true?

 

I interpret controlling your own destiny as you are not heavily reliant on out of town scoreboards to make the playoffs, I don't think that is the case here especially in a year with intra divisional games only. The next three match ups between the Flames and the Habs are just as important as us winning our own games.

Perhaps the most accurate thing here is none of us three (flames, nucks, habs) control our destinies, they're all tied together 

 

controlling your own destiny means that if you win your games, it doesn't matter what the other teams do because they can't catch you. doesn't matter how unlikely or statistically improbable. if you don't statistically require teams in front of you to lose games, you control your own destiny. 

Edited April 26, 2021 by tas

[DSVII]

8 minutes ago, tas said:

controlling your own destiny means that if you win your games, it doesn't matter what the other teams do because they can't catch you. doesn't matter how unlikely or statistically improbable. if you don't statistically require teams in front of you to lose games, you control your own destiny. 

I agree with you with a slight caveat.

 

You control your own destiny if it means you just need to win your games at the average rate you have been all season and it doesn't matter what the other teams do. So if you win 50% of your remaining games and make playoffs, you control it, barring a historic collapse. You have control of your destiny if you require a late game collapse to not make it.

 

If any team just wins 100% of their games then its true no matter what, they don't need to care about what other teams do. The concern here is that they need to be winning at an 80% clip starting today, which is unlikely for a team that's batting 0.500 so far (empirically speaking)

 

Anyways this is just semantics, of course i agree with you if we run the table then it doesn't matter what the other teams do.

 

Edited April 26, 2021 by DSVII

[tas]

2 minutes ago, DSVII said:

I agree with you with a slight caveat.

 

You control your own destiny if it means you just need to win your games at the average rate you have been all season and it doesn't matter what the other teams do. So if you win 50% of your remaining games and make playoffs, you control it, barring a historic collapse. You have control of your destiny if you require a late game collapse to not make it.

 

If any team just wins 100% of their games then its true no matter what, they don't need to care about what other teams do. The concern here is that they need to be winning at an 80% clip starting today, which is unlikely for a team that's batting 0.500 so far (empirically speaking)

 

Anyways this is just semantics, of course i agree with you if we run the table then it doesn't matter what the other teams do.

 

sorry, but it's not open to interpretation. and past results don't have any bearing on future results.