[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

[Provost]

21 minutes ago, FijianCanuck said:

Yes! Once Ottawa did that they suddenly improved.

That is a good point.

 

I mentioned earlier in the thread, if your roster is playing really poorly... are you even that much worse off in your playoff chances by getting rid of the expiring vets for assets and bringing up some kids?

 

I mean, it seems fairly obvious that it is more likely for a bad roster to keep playing badly than it is for them to completely turn things around.

 

Maybe with some kids you hit lightning in a bottle and suddenly have an energized room. 

[JM_]

Just now, Provost said:

That is a good point.

 

I mentioned earlier in the thread, if your roster is playing really poorly... are you even that much worse off in your playoff chances by getting rid of the expiring vets for assets and bringing up some kids?

 

I mean, it seems fairly obvious that it is more likely for a bad roster to keep playing badly than it is for them to completely turn things around.

 

Maybe with some kids you hit lightning in a bottle and suddenly have an energized room. 

 

its a good idea in theory - but how do this years rules actually work, are we free to bring in and send down players in any way we want to or is there something limiting this? e.g., there was a lot of complaining about Juolevi not playing but apparently that had to do with the cap. 

 

[Provost]

28 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

 

its a good idea in theory - but how do this years rules actually work, are we free to bring in and send down players in any way we want to or is there something limiting this? e.g., there was a lot of complaining about Juolevi not playing but apparently that had to do with the cap. 

 

That was caused by NOT moving out the rentals.  If in Mid March we had have moved out Pearson, Sutter, and Benn which was what the thread was suggesting... we would have not only been able to audition the waiver wire pick ups, but also get good looks at some of our higher end farm players and taxi squad.

It is really just a conversation about the point where you shift gears to playing for next year instead of this year.  Some folks wants to drag it out until the bitter end, I am on the other side of the equation where I think if the odds are heavily stacked against us we should start aiming to improve ourselves longer term rather than just thinking about futile playoff runs.

I think to prepare yourself with the best information possible to fashion next year's roster we need to know where some players are at, and the only way to do that is to get a good look of 10-20 games.  What if Gadjovich's success isn't just the fact the AHL is much lower competition this year due to taxi squads taking their best players?  Maybe he isn't really any better, but what if he came up and absolutely knocked Virtanen out of the lineup by being an effective 3rd line winger?  What if Rathbone is really ready... do you re-sign Edler still?  Do you think about trading one of Myers or Schmidt?  Couldn't DiPietro get a few games so we didn't lose an entire year's worth of development?  Can Juolevi be counted on as a 2nd pairing guy for next season?  Could Lind be a centre pencilled into the lineup next year or do we have to make finding a 3C our biggest priority?

I don't know any of these things, and neither does Canucks management now.  In my mind, answering those questions would have been a bigger benefit than chasing remote odds of making the playoffs.

[mll]

20 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

 

its a good idea in theory - but how do this years rules actually work, are we free to bring in and send down players in any way we want to or is there something limiting this? e.g., there was a lot of complaining about Juolevi not playing but apparently that had to do with the cap. 

 

 

There are only 4 regular recalls past the TDL.  They’ve used 2 so far: Juolevi and Lind. 

 

The cap excuse was true for about a week in March.  Between the date they called up Eriksson on emergency basis the 13th and Pettersson going on LTIR the 19th.  His scratch looks to be more a coaching decision - they used his roster spot to recall Michaelis so they could scratch MacEwen + the top-6 Ds were healthy and it also saves ownership money as he earns over 10x less on the taxi squad.  

 

If they were able to recall Eriksson on the 13th they had the cap to recall Juolevi before that.  It’s pretty much the same cap hit given how the LTIR bonus pools functions.  Juolevi’s own demotion created a bonus pool equal to his bonuses - when recalled his bonus would just be covered by that bonus pool his own demotion created.  

 

He was already being a healthy scratch while on the roster.   They only demoted him on 4th March when his last game was 23 February. 

 

[FijianCanuck]

53 minutes ago, Provost said:

That is a good point.

 

I mentioned earlier in the thread, if your roster is playing really poorly... are you even that much worse off in your playoff chances by getting rid of the expiring vets for assets and bringing up some kids?

 

I mean, it seems fairly obvious that it is more likely for a bad roster to keep playing badly than it is for them to completely turn things around.

 

Maybe with some kids you hit lightning in a bottle and suddenly have an energized room. 

Ottawa dumped the dead weight and just went with kids. Suddenly their goaltending improved and they're winning most nights. 

[JM_]

35 minutes ago, mll said:

 

There are only 4 regular recalls past the TDL.  They’ve used 2 so far: Juolevi and Lind. 

 

The cap excuse was true for about a week in March.  Between the date they called up Eriksson on emergency basis the 13th and Pettersson going on LTIR the 19th.  His scratch looks to be more a coaching decision - they used his roster spot to recall Michaelis so they could scratch MacEwen + the top-6 Ds were healthy and it also saves ownership money as he earns over 10x less on the taxi squad.  

 

If they were able to recall Eriksson on the 13th they had the cap to recall Juolevi before that.  It’s pretty much the same cap hit given how the LTIR bonus pools functions.  Juolevi’s own demotion created a bonus pool equal to his bonuses - when recalled his bonus would just be covered by that bonus pool his own demotion created.  

 

He was already being a healthy scratch while on the roster.   They only demoted him on 4th March when his last game was 23 February. 

 

thanks thats good info, as usual. 

[CanucksJay]

So I see a lot of ppl asking for youth to be played at this point of the season.

Players are gassed and we need energy.

 

Which vets do we need to sit?

 

Roussel and Beagle are injured

Pearson is actually playing well.

 

Is it just Sutter? Who plays centre and PKs then?

 

As far as I know, most of the other fill ins are young?  Vesey is even getting scratched.

 

 

[JM_]

47 minutes ago, Provost said:

That was caused by NOT moving out the rentals.  If in Mid March we had have moved out Pearson, Sutter, and Benn which was what the thread was suggesting... we would have not only been able to audition the waiver wire pick ups, but also get good looks at some of our higher end farm players and taxi squad.

It is really just a conversation about the point where you shift gears to playing for next year instead of this year.  Some folks wants to drag it out until the bitter end, I am on the other side of the equation where I think if the odds are heavily stacked against us we should start aiming to improve ourselves longer term rather than just thinking about futile playoff runs.

I think to prepare yourself with the best information possible to fashion next year's roster we need to know where some players are at, and the only way to do that is to get a good look of 10-20 games.  What if Gadjovich's success isn't just the fact the AHL is much lower competition this year due to taxi squads taking their best players?  Maybe he isn't really any better, but what if he came up and absolutely knocked Virtanen out of the lineup by being an effective 3rd line winger?  What if Rathbone is really ready... do you re-sign Edler still?  Do you think about trading one of Myers or Schmidt?  Couldn't DiPietro get a few games so we didn't lose an entire year's worth of development?  Can Juolevi be counted on as a 2nd pairing guy for next season?  Could Lind be a centre pencilled into the lineup next year or do we have to make finding a 3C our biggest priority?

I don't know any of these things, and neither does Canucks management now.  In my mind, answering those questions would have been a bigger benefit than chasing remote odds of making the playoffs.

not playing Lind vs Ottawa seems like a gaffe to me. I'd really like to get a look at Rathbone and Rafferty more than anyone else. I understand wanting to see Gad's but he'll be able to compete for a roster spot next camp. Our decision on defence are more important I think. Send Chatfield  and Michaelis back down to the taxi squad and lets see what we have for right side d depth.

 

 

[JM_]

1 minute ago, CanucksJay said:

So I see a lot of ppl asking for youth to be played at this point of the season.

Players are gassed and we need energy.

 

Which vets do we need to sit?

 

Roussel and Beagle are injured

Pearson is actually playing well.

 

Is it just Sutter? Who plays centre and PKs then?

 

As far as I know, most of the other fill ins are young?  Vesey is even getting scratched.

 

 

I'd sit Hawyrluk for a couple of games to see what Lind can do, no harm in that. 

[CanucksJay]

Just now, Jimmy McGill said:

I'd sit Hawyrluk for a couple of games to see what Lind can do, no harm in that. 

Yeah no harm but I like what Jayce brought to the team...

 

Is it just Lind we want to get in or are there other prospects as well?

For example Rathbone platooning with Chatfield or Juolevi

Gadj?

 

Funny thing is, I doubt amy of the new bodies would be much of an improvement over existing ppl until they are further developed...

 

[JM_]

1 minute ago, CanucksJay said:

Yeah no harm but I like what Jayce brought to the team...

 

Is it just Lind we want to get in or are there other prospects as well?

For example Rathbone platooning with Chatfield or Juolevi

Gadj?

 

Funny thing is, I doubt amy of the new bodies would be much of an improvement over existing ppl until they are further developed...

 

for sure, its not a knock on JH, I hope he's back next year. More just to see what else we have on the shelf. 

 

For me its more to see their speed, awareness, how they read the game, etc. I don't really expect it to change the score, I just want to see if they look ready. 

[CanucksJay]

Man...hindsight is 20/20

 

We got rid of AG,

Roussel and Beagle are injured

 

Our top 6 are 

Boeser, Miler, Horvat, Hogs, Pearson, Petterson. Pearson should really be a tweener between 2nd and 3rd line.

 

It really should have been Toffoli in the top 6 and JV gone and Pearson moving down to 3rd line.

 

The solid bottom 6 players on this team is pretty much only Motte

Should have been Motte and Pearson as the locks on bottom 6 with 4 spots available between Sutter, MacEwan, Hawryluck, Vesey, Highmore, Beagle, Roussel, Lind, Gadj.

Most of the guys I mentioned are serviceable players on a mediocre team.  

We have Pod coming that would only leave 3 more spots in the bottom 6.

 

One key gaffe (losing toffoli for JV) really screwed us up this year.

 

 

[Provost]

4 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

Man...hindsight is 20/20

 

We got rid of AG,

Roussel and Beagle are injured

 

Our top 6 are 

Boeser, Miler, Horvat, Hogs, Pearson, Petterson. Pearson should really be a tweener between 2nd and 3rd line.

 

It really should have been Toffoli in the top 6 and JV gone and Pearson moving down to 3rd line.

 

The solid bottom 6 players on this team is pretty much only Motte

Should have been Motte and Pearson as the locks on bottom 6 with 4 spots available between Sutter, MacEwan, Hawryluck, Vesey, Highmore, Beagle, Roussel, Lind, Gadj.

Most of the guys I mentioned are serviceable players on a mediocre team.  

We have Pod coming that would only leave 3 more spots in the bottom 6.

 

One key gaffe (losing toffoli for JV) really screwed us up this year.

 

 

It would be hindsight if it wasn't for the fact that you could find at least half the posters here suggesting the exact same thing last offseason before all the signings happened

[Provost]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/canucks-kole-lind-make-nhl-debut-vs-maple-leafs/

[CanucksJay]

33 minutes ago, Provost said:

It would be hindsight if it wasn't for the fact that you could find at least half the posters here suggesting the exact same thing last offseason before all the signings happened

True

 

I really didnt want to give up on JV. ...he has steaily improved yearly and went from 20 pts 3 years ago  to 25pts next year to 36 pts last year. That is like a 30% increase. Logic would be that things are starting to click for him and it wouldnt have been out of left field if he followed up with a 45 -50 pt season this year.

If Jake could be a 50pt player and bang bodies, he would be a very coveted player and things were starting to trend that way.  

 

That being said, we knew TT was a solid top 6 player so if we knew JV could never be one and best hope was for him to be a staple on 3rd line, then maybe that was the wrong move.

 

Here's a question, scrapping this year aside

 

If we know JV was going to turn into a 45-50 pt player on the 3rd line that bangs bodies and plays with speed at a 3m cap hit, is he more valuable than a top 6 winger who gets paid 4.25m or higher and produces 65 pts a season? (What TT is projecting curretnly playing his absolute best)

 

My dismay is more that JV is having an off year while TT is playing great (even so, he is on pace for 65 pts and is a -1 playing top 6 minutes while Jake is a -3 playing on bottom 6 with less ice time).

If JV can pick it up next year, I would feel much better about lettign TT go.

 

Also, not sure why I turned this into JV vs Toffoli

 

I would have let Roussel, Sutter, any of these other contracts go before lettign Toffoli walk

Edited April 29, 2021 by CanucksJay

[DSVII]

27 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

 

Also, not sure why I turned this into JV vs Toffoli

 

I would have let Roussel, Sutter, any of these other contracts go before lettign Toffoli walk

Because you understand opportunity cost. 

 

Quote

If we know JV was going to turn into a 45-50 pt player on the 3rd line that bangs bodies and plays with speed at a 3m cap hit, is he more valuable than a top 6 winger who gets paid 4.25m or higher and produces 65 pts a season? (What TT is projecting curretnly playing his absolute best)

I take the top 6 winger. In general, it's easier to develop and find or cheaper to pay for 3rd line wingers.

 

Quote

Man...hindsight is 20/20

Eventually, the setbacks will have to be attributed to a lack of foresight from this group.

 

Here's some 'hindsight' future predictions. Because we promised to protect Pearson (which IMO was partly a reaction to the sunk cost of losing Toffoli), and we chose to sign him now before the expansion draft, we are potentially vulnerable to losing one of Motte, Lind, or Gadjovich. 

Edited April 29, 2021 by DSVII

[Josepho]

2 hours ago, FijianCanuck said:

Ottawa dumped the dead weight and just went with kids. Suddenly their goaltending improved and they're winning most nights. 

It's almost as if terrible and expensive veterans cited for their leadership/grit/intangibles/etc. don't actually help the team win. 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Josepho

[Provost]

11 minutes ago, DSVII said:

Because you understand opportunity cost. 

 

I take the top 6 winger. In general, it's easier to develop and find or cheaper to pay for 3rd line wingers.

 

Eventually, the setbacks will have to be attributed to a lack of foresight from this group.

 

Here's some 'hindsight' future predictions. Because we promised to protect Pearson (which IMO was partly a reaction to the sunk cost of losing Toffoli), and we chose to sign him now before the expansion draft, we are potentially vulnerable to losing one of Motte, Lind, or Gadjovich. 

This recent one in particular drives me a little crazy.  There was literally no reason to do it.  Sometimes if you really want a player, you leverage the trade deadline to get an under market deal by basically threatening to trade them unless they signed a team friendly extension.  That happens.  

Except we didn't sign him to a team friendly extension.  Basically all the folks outside the market say we paid at best full UFA market rate, or at worst we overpaid for him.  That was even reported as what several agents said.

So really there was no deadline or need to sign him before the expansion draft.  If we can have a gentleman's agreement not to expose him... we can't have a gentleman's agreement that we will sign him to that contract price and term but won't pull the trigger until the day after expansion in order to preserve an expansion slot?  There is no jeopardy for Pearson, Seattle isn't likely to take him as a UFA and if they did take him, he can just choose not sign with them... and sign with us on July 1st if that was his desire.

Nothing Benning and company has done seem to indicate they consider anything except if they like and want the player.  They identify free agents they want, and then pay whatever price it takes to get them and don't seem to have a "walk away" number like other teams do.  They decide they want Pearson, so just sign him without thinking about opportunity cost and other implications.  They sign Virtanen because they think he still has upside, even though that ends up costing them Toffoli who has already realized more upside than even the most optimistic Jake lover could hope for.

It is the reverse of the Gillis/Gilman era where they maybe tried to be too clever with managing things and got slapped by the NHL for it.  This regime just seems reactionary and plodding.

 

[mll]

Below the Canucks’ ranking so far this season in different categories using Spotlogiq’s tracking techology.

 

Ahead of tonight’s game the site Logiqbets produced this side by side comparison.  Didn’t want to reformat the whole thing so kept Toronto + it’s a comparison point.

 

VANCOUVER CANUCKS	TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
VAN is the league’s worst team at rush chances which is a major disadvantage against TOR’s defending VAN is the league’s worst team at controlled entries which is a major disadvantage against TOR’s defending VAN is the league’s worst team at getting grade A chances which is a major disadvantage against TOR’s defending VAN ranks in the bottom 5 in expected goals which is a major disadvantage against TOR’s defending VAN ranks in the bottom 5 for penalties taken which is a major disadvantage against TOR’s power play, and an area where VAN saw a fall in head-to-head games this season. VAN is a below average team at scoring goals which is a disadvantage against TOR’s defense VAN is a below average team for slot shots which is a disadvantage against TOR’s defending VAN is a below average team at drawing penalties which is a disadvantage against TOR’s penalty kill	TOR is the NHL’s best in expected goals which is a major advantage against VAN’s defending TOR is the NHL’s best for slot shots which is a major advantage against VAN’s defending TOR is the NHL’s best for slot passes which is a major advantage against VAN’s defending, and an area where TOR saw a jump in head-to-head games this season. TOR is the NHL’s best at getting grade A chances which is a major advantage against VAN’s defending TOR ranks top 5 at cycle chances which is a major advantage against VAN’s defending, and an area where TOR saw a jump in head-to-head games this season. TOR ranks top 5 in OZ possession time which is a major advantage against VAN’s defending TOR ranks top 5 at rush chances which is a major advantage against VAN’s defending TOR ranks top 5 at forecheck chances which is a major advantage against VAN’s defending

 

VAN	RECORDS & STREAKS	TOR
19 – 21 – 3	Record	31 – 13 – 5
41 (28)	Points (NHL Rank)	67 (6)
.477 (21)	Points %	.684 (6)
4 – 5 – 1	Last 10	5 – 3 – 2
L – L – W – L – W	Last 5 results (most recent first)	W – W – W – L – OTL
2L, 3 out of 4	Streak	3W
7 – 11 – 1	Away/Home	14 – 7 – 3
4 – 3 – 0	Head-to-head	3 – 3 – 1
0	Days of rest	0
1 – 4 – 1	Record with 0 day(s) rest	4 – 2 – 1
VAN	OFFENCE BIG ADVANTAGE: TOR	TOR
2.65 (24)	Goals for	3.31 (7)
2.36 (29)	Expected Goals	3.49 (1)
57.6 (18)	Shot attempts	59.6 (12)
29.7 (16)	Shots on net	32.5 (5)
12.5 (23)	Slot shots	17.0 (1)
15.7 (6)	Slot pass completions	17.5 (1)
4.6 (31)	Rush chances	7.3 (4)
11.4 (3)	Cycle chances	11.7 (2)
2.8 (22)	Forecheck chances	3.5 (3)
1.7 (20)	Rebound chances	2.4 (2)
VAN	DEFENCE BIG ADVANTAGE: TOR	TOR
3.19 (24)	Goals against	2.67 (10)
3.41 (31)	xG against	2.51 (6)
63.5 (30)	Shot attempts against	56.1 (6)
33.4 (30)	Shots on net against	28.9 (9)
16.2 (31)	Slot shots against	12.4 (6)
17.6 (31)	Slot pass comp. against	12.4 (4)
7.5 (31)	Rush ch. against	5.7 (8)
11.3 (30)	Cycle ch. against	8.7 (10)
3.5 (30)	Forecheck ch. against	2.9 (16)
2.0 (24)	Rebound ch. against	1.8 (10)
VAN	TRANSITION BIG ADVANTAGE: TOR	TOR
13.9 (4)	Stretch passes	12.8 (9)
70.4 (20)	Controlled exits	79.8 (1)
34.4 (31)	Controlled entries	42.3 (7)
VAN	SPECIAL TEAMS BIG ADVANTAGE: TOR	TOR
3.5 (28)	Penalties taken	2.7 (4)
78.8% (19)	PK %	77.0% (26)
2.8 (23)	Penalties drawn	2.8 (21)
19.2% (19)	PP %	21.7% (11)
VAN	PROJECTED GOALIES BIG ADVANTAGE: TOR	TOR
Braden Holtby	rankings out of 65 qualified goalies	David Rittich
16 (0)	Games	3 (0)
3.24 (55)	Goals Against Avg.	(0)
-0.16 (36)	Goals Saved Above Exp.	(0)
.905 (45)	Save %	(0)
.820 (47)	Slot save %	(0)
.783 (30)	Inner slot save %	(0)

 

 

[DefCon1]

2 hours ago, CanucksJay said:

Yeah no harm but I like what Jayce brought to the team...

 

Is it just Lind we want to get in or are there other prospects as well?

For example Rathbone platooning with Chatfield or Juolevi

Gadj?

 

Funny thing is, I doubt amy of the new bodies would be much of an improvement over existing ppl until they are further developed...

 

Jayce is a dime a dozen player which are readily available in free agency market and can be gotten cheap in FA or waiver wire. We need actual scorers like Lind in the lineup to add to our scoring depth. We also have so many players in the mould of Jayce like Roussel, Motte, Boyd, Highmore etc. etc.

Edited April 29, 2021 by DefCon1