[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

[DefCon1]

3 hours ago, lmm said:

Hey, credit where credit is due, Travis dressed Zack mGoo

Then there was a fight, and mGoo wins the first fight by a Canuck since Rick Rypien back in 2010.

then the announcer says, that will probably be the end of that....

 

then  the BeagleDog, mGoo, Virtyboy line have a good offensive shift

 

mGoo/ Virtyboy get fed 4 more minutes of ice time the rest of the way

 

Atta way Travis  you showed them

 

the Peg put 25 hits, did anyone count how many were on Hoglander? 10? 12?...

meanwhile good old Gaudy gets as many shifts as Virty and mGoo combined

that is good coaching

 

oh ya and they only have one PP unit!!!! woot

I dont want to see our PP coach next year. This guy keeps the same PP unit 1 intact with the same strategy even if the PP% goes to zero. Basically zero change or adjustments when they struggle the whole season. Why they dont try Pearson as a sceen or Hoglander on the PP1 unit is beyond me. Its the same perimeter play that all the teams in the NHL can counter against with a blindfold on. 

[RU SERIOUS]

As of tonight - following our loss to Winterpeg, our odds of making the playoffs according to Money puck are 22.8%.   In other words, the season is just about over for us "technically", thanks to JB and TG's Whiz-Bang Leadership ! 

 

So unless a miracle happens, I think it's safe to plan some golf games in May at this point!

 

Canucks management motto;

Edited February 22, 2021 by RU SERIOUS
typo

[Provost]

5 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said:

As of tonight - following our loss to Winterpeg, our odds of making the playoffs according to Money puck are 22.8%.   In other words, the season is just about over for us "technically", thanks to JB and TG's Whiz-Bang Leadership ! 

 

So unless a miracle happens, I think it's safe to plan some golf games in May at this point!

 

Canucks management motto;

Money puck for me says 18.5.... but it has always been way off from all the other sites, giving us at least double the odds everyone else.  I don’t think they have a very sophisticated model at all.  They use the games from 2007/08 to 2014/15 for their chance to win games and ignore the first 20 games of the year in their model.... so they are assuming we are a much better team than we are.

 

The rest mostly give around 4%. 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgi

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nhl/playoff-odds/

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/nhlpostseasonprob.html
 

[Provost]

On 2/18/2021 at 12:53 PM, oldnews said:

Meh.  People pull this stuff out every season - and it's overcooked.

There are always teams that buck this stuff - every single season.

It's premature - as always..

4% playoff odds...

 

 

[lmm]

6 hours ago, DefCon1 said:

I dont want to see our PP coach next year. This guy keeps the same PP unit 1 intact with the same strategy even if the PP% goes to zero. Basically zero change or adjustments when they struggle the whole season. Why they dont try Pearson as a sceen or Hoglander on the PP1 unit is beyond me. Its the same perimeter play that all the teams in the NHL can counter against with a blindfold on. 

you know the old saying about 'playing not to lose'?

now that the 1st (only) PP unit stays out for the full 2 minutes, I see them playing to conserve energy.

I really noticed this yesterday in the 3rd period, 1 minute into a penalty and all 5 guys are standing still.

its like they know they will be there for another minute, better not use up too much energy

Rather than going out and givin' er for 45 seconds, score or get off the ice for the other group, its a marathon,

45 seconds gone, better slow down my shift has still 75 seconds left

 

and John says to John, "they're staying out there"

 

where is Old News, 2 weeks ago he gave me a 'wat' for saying the pp unit was staying out for 2 minutes  

they played a 3:45 shift against Calgary

[drofssalg]

I figure 60 points (likely 62) will be needed to get the 4th spot to get into the playoffs. The Canucks need to win 21 of 34 remaining to get to 60 points. They need to go 500 against Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg and Edmonton, 3 of 4 against Calgary and all 6 against Ottawa to get 21 wins. Not impossible but doesn't feel like it will happen this year. Unfortunately 20 of the 34 games remaining are against Toronto, Edmonton and Winnipeg - slip there and there are not enough other games left to catch up.

 

Oddly enough, I think Toronto, Edmonton and Winnipeg are in. I see Montreal falling and that means the last playoff spot is between Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal. I think Calgary is done actually, their team is in disarray. So it comes down to whether or not Montreal can over achieve again to keep the last playoff spot.

 

The next 9 games will determine the Canucks fate.

[Nucker 67]

I thought they might actually turn it around after that win against CGY.  Then WPG comes into our barn and beats us both times. Now we play McDavid. Good luck with that Jordie Benn.   Geez, they need to upgrade there. Saw some good things in the game last night, but the Canucks let their 2-hgoal lead vanish. Playoffs? Bring on the Draft, we need another good young Dman for the future Championship team.

[Provost]

4 minutes ago, drofssalg said:

I figure 60 points (likely 62) will be needed to get the 4th spot to get into the playoffs. The Canucks need to win 21 of 34 remaining to get to 60 points. They need to go 500 against Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg and Edmonton, 3 of 4 against Calgary and all 6 against Ottawa to get 21 wins. Not impossible but doesn't feel like it will happen this year. Unfortunately 20 of the 34 games remaining are against Toronto, Edmonton and Winnipeg - slip there and there are not enough other games left to catch up.

 

Oddly enough, I think Toronto, Edmonton and Winnipeg are in. I see Montreal falling and that means the last playoff spot is between Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal. I think Calgary is done actually, their team is in disarray. So it comes down to whether or not Montreal can over achieve again to keep the last playoff spot.

 

The next 9 games will determine the Canucks fate.

I have always been going with 61-63 points for the playoff bar.... so pretty close.

 

Montreal, Winnipeg, and Edmonton are in a virtual tie once you factor in games played and winning %.

 

Edmonton is actually the lowest of the three and just look better in the standings because of games played.

 

We have to play .650 hockey for the rest of the season to even have a chance, and most of our wins need to come against the teams we are fighting for the last spots... otherwise the bar gets higher.

.650 hockey equates to a 106 point season over a regular 82 games.  When was the last time we played hockey at that level?

The especially bad news is that we have to root for Calgary to win a lot (less than us)... because we need them to take points away from Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Montreal.  If Calgary falls completely apart (they are still winning way more than us right now)... then it is even harder to make the playoffs because the cut off bar gets too high.  We need one of those teams currently in a playoff spot to go on a tear and take away points form the other teams we are chasing that are already in a playoff spot.

 

The summary is we are pooched, and we’re a couple of days ago when I made this thread.  

 

There was no mathematical way we were going to come out of the weekend with a better chance dr of making the playoffs than when it started actually zero, we were assured of having our odds go down even in the best possible outcome.  If we won both our games and Calgary/Edmonton split theirs... our odds still would have dropped as we wouldn’t have gained ground points-wise on a playoff spot... and would have less remaining opportunities to make up ground.

 

 

[Mackcanuck]

We are 3 points out of a playoff spot with 34 games remaining.

The playoffs are not out of reach

[Gurn]

6 minutes ago, Mackcanuck said:

We are 3 points out of a playoff spot with 34 games remaining.

The playoffs are not out of reach

Have you factored in the games in hand,?

The team that is 3 points in front of us has 5 games in hand, and they are currently winning .618 of their games. Means they are very likely to win 3 of those games in hand; making them 9 point in front with same games played.

[Gurn]

Toronto        19	14	3	2	30	.789	13	14	72	51	+21	8-2-1	6-1-1	0-0	7-1-2	W3
2  Edmonton	20	12	8	0	24	.600	11	12	72	62	+10	6-5-0	6-3-0	0-0	8-2-0	W3
3  Winnipeg	18	11	6	1	23	.639	8	11	61	49	+12	6-3-1	5-3-0	0-1	6-3-1	W2
4  Montréal	17	9	5	3	21	.618	9	9	57	47	+10	3-5-0	6-0-3	0-1	4-5-1	OT1
5  Vancouver	22	8	12	2	18	.409	7	7	65	78	-13	5-4-2	3-8-0	1-0	2-6-2	OT1
6  Calgary	18	8	9	1	17	.472	6	7	47	54	-7	4-4-0	4-5-1	1-0	4-6-0	L3
7  Ottawa	20	5	14	1	11	.275	3	5	47	80	-33	2-5-1	3-9-0	0-0	4-6-0	W1

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by gurn

[Mackcanuck]

11 minutes ago, gurn said:

Have you factored in the games in hand,?

The team that is 3 points in front of us has 5 games in hand, and they are currently winning .618 of their games. Means they are very likely to win 3 of those games in hand; making them 9 point in front with same games played.

So are you saying the playoffs are out of reach even tho we are 3 points out with 34 games remaining??

And yes I am well aware of the standings

 

Can we play better? Probably

 

Are we capable of playing better? Absolutely!

Edited February 22, 2021 by Mackcanuck

[drofssalg]

I enjoy watching hockey. I am a Canucks fan (and I am not young) so I certainly have not watched because they win. I am not a blind fan but I also don't find negativity is much fun either. So I try to avoid just dunking on the team. If my previous reply sounded non-committal that would be why.  

 

Do I think they make the playoffs this year? My heart tells me no. Is it still possible? Yes. But it will take the Canucks winning a minimum of 21 games in the final 34 (just under 62% win percentage - and the Canucks haven't been that good in a long time) and then the right combination of other teams winning and/or losing. So possible. But I don't think it happens. In a normal season with eastern conference games to help with points I would have more optimism. This year - every game is a 4 point game and it's tougher to move the needle. 

 

Is it all bad? I still look at the Avalanche and see some similarities. A down year in the middle is not a bad thing. 

[Gurn]

1 minute ago, Mackcanuck said:

So are you saying we are out of the playoffs even tho we are 3 points out with 34 games remaining??

Extremely unlikely to catch the other teams, we have 34 games remaining, every one else has more.

Have to beat 3 teams to make it to play offs.

Ottawa likely finishes last, who else do the Canucks beat?

Calgary is 1 point back, with 4 games in hand, so maybe we catch them. Who else?

Winnipeg 5 points up 4 games in hand

Edmonton 6 points up 2 games in hand

 

Forget about catching Toronto 12 point up 3 games in hand

 And Montreal  3 points up 5 games in hand 

 

[Mackcanuck]

13 minutes ago, gurn said:

Extremely unlikely to catch the other teams, we have 34 games remaining, every one else has more.

Have to beat 3 teams to make it to play offs.

Ottawa likely finishes last, who else do the Canucks beat?

Calgary is 1 point back, with 4 games in hand, so maybe we catch them. Who else?

Winnipeg 5 points up 4 games in hand

Edmonton 6 points up 2 games in hand

 

Forget about catching Toronto 12 point up 3 games in hand

 And Montreal  3 points up 5 games in hand 

 

I choose to remain hopeful things will improve

Obviously, I would prefer to remain positive.

[Gurn]

4 minutes ago, Mackcanuck said:

I choose to remain hopeful things will improve

Obviously, I would prefer to remain positive.

hopeful is nice, but plan for realistic out comes.

Imo, time for the team to begin selling off the assets that won't be here next season.

 

Sutter

Pearson

Benn

 

And then the ones that won't be terribly missed, if they do leave

 

Holtby- maybe get something worth trading him for, or not no big deal either way.

 

Virtanen- I like him as a mid six, but there is just so much noise about him, it would be quieter if he was moved

Baertschi -probably not tradeable, but try

Rousell, Beagle   maybe, but more likely the year after.

 

With covid/quarantine rules it would be best to start moving those they can, as soon as possible.

[Provost]

Just another example of how hard it will be to make up ground on so many teams ahead of us who are playing each other a bunch... and how many nights, even if we win, we can't actually gain anything in the standings, certainly not at a rate to gain enough ground by the end of the season.

Tonight:
Calgary and Toronto - We can't gain any ground in the playoff race even if Calgary loses because they aren't in the playoffs yet either.  We can only lose ground if Calgary wins because they move farther ahead of us.

Tuesday:
Canadiens vs. Senators
Canucks vs. Edmonton
Out of all the possible outcomes in regulation or OT... we need to win in regulation or OT, AND need Ottawa to win in regulation or OT.  Any other combination of us losing or Ottawa winning and we lose ground (even if we win and Montreal wins.. we lose ground because we have less remaining opportunities to pick up the required points before the season ends and have to play at a higher clip to make them up the few games that remain).

Wednesday:
Flames vs. Maple Leafs - We can't gain any ground as Calgary doesn't hold a playoff spot, we can only lose ground if Calgary wins as they move farther ahead of us.

Thursday:
Flames vs. Senators
Canadiens vs. Jets

Canucks vs. Edmonton
Even if we win in regulation, we can barely gain any ground as one of Montreal and Winnipeg will also get as many points as us... we can creep up a little on Edmonton in terms of removing one of their games in hand.  Any other combination of outcomes mean we lose ground

Friday:
No Games

Saturday:
Leafs vs. Oilers
Canadiens vs. Jets
We can only lose ground as at least one, if not all three teams we are chasing for a playoff spots gains points.

Sunday:
No Games

So... a week from now, even if everything goes perfectly and we win ALL our games and all the teams we need to lose, lose EVERY ONE of their games... we will barely be any closer to the playoffs because games in hand by teams above us are being played between those same teams and one of them will get points.

Almost all the combinations of possible outcomes result in us losing more ground for a playoff spot... even if we win both our games, which is a tall order in itself.

Edited February 22, 2021 by Provost

[DSVII]

The question is, if this team treads water to stay afloat but still out of a playoff position in a few weeks, will management even considering selling any rentals for assets? (pearson/sutter)

 

I doubt it. But let's see, what do you think? "GMJB is learning on the job" crowd?

[GritGrinder]

No sense contemplating all the possible scenarios of which team beats which on any given night. Frankly its just headache/anxiety inducing in terms of fandom. I like to keep it simple. All 4 teams currently in North playoff position are on pace for 65pts or higher and the pre-season consensus from most sites/insiders/prognosticators was that 65pts is what was needed for 4th in the North.

 

30-21-5 minimum is what the Canucks need.

So just watch and try to enjoy each game and countdown each regulation loss from the 9 that the Canucks can afford. Once they hit 21 regulation losses the playoffs literally hang in the balance.

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by GritGrinder

[DeNiro]

1 minute ago, DSVII said:

The question is, if this team treads water to stay afloat but still out of a playoff position in a few weeks, will management even considering selling any rentals for assets? (pearson/sutter)

 

I doubt it. But let's see, what do you think? "GMJB is learning on the job" crowd?

I wouldn’t be surprised to see those two re-signed.

 

We just don’t have the depth on wing or down the middle right now to replace them. You’re probably paying more in free agency to get worse players too.