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[Edited] The Playoffs are Now out of Reach

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2 hours ago, Provost said:

I think that is true, fair or not.

Green had the team playing above their talent level and worked hard every night last year.  Most players on the team had career years.  Opposing coaches and the knowledgeable pundits remarked on how well the team was coached... and how any team coming into town knew they were going to have a hard time matching the effort output.

Did he forget how to be a coach because of a Covid break?  Was it just a fluke all along?  Was the team equally bad, but just had a Vezina level goaltender hiding it all? (easy to be aggressive and push forward hard every shift when you don't need to worry about backchecking and coverage since your goalie is going to save the day every time).

Honestly, I think most of the difference is in the horses Green has to work with this year and maybe he hasn't adjusted properly to those losses.  Aside from Markstrom... Tanev AND Stecher were our best defensive D in terms of shot suppression and match ups.  That is a lot to lose in a short period of time when that was already a weakness on the team.

I don't see how Benning comes out of this year (barring a miraculous turnaround that has us at least sniffing at the playoffs), so the coach is a decision for after that.  You don't saddle a new GM with a coach that was just picked and signed long term.

Probably the order is:
Hire a President
Fire Benning and Weisbrod (or just keep them under supervision for the new President to assess)
Put in an interim GM (if you fire Benning)
Fire some of the coaching staff
Put in an interim guy like Smyl for the last hunk of the season who isn't in the plans for a permanent replacement
Wait to see who is available in the offseason for both coach and GM

One would "think" our job is an attractive one, there are pieces in place and most would bet we are on the upswing.  It makes a GM look like a genius taking a team from perennial lottery team to playoffs in a short period... even if it was really just mostly timing.  A lot better than taking a job with an aging core like Pittsburgh where it will be hard to look good, even with all the right moves.

These are all good points.   Still half a season left - i'm personally with Aquaman on this one, let the tire fire keep going or put itself out - re-evaluate along the way and adapt depending on the outcome.    Agree there is little hope left for TG coaching and that JB time is also in question.   Don't throw out the baby in the bath water etc - this is a weird year.   The off season would be the time to take stock and make moves. 

Edited by IBatch
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2 minutes ago, IBatch said:

These are all good points.   Still half a season left - i'm personally with Aquaman on this one, let the tire fire keep going or put itself out - re-evaluate along the way and adapt depending on the outcome.    Agree there is little hope left for TG coaching and that JB time is also in question.   Don't throw out the baby in the bath water etc - this is a weird year.   The off season would be the time to take stock and make moves. 

Aquaman should do fire benning before he spends any money after bad contracts expire. I dont trust Benning at all with cap space and contract negotiations. Maybe demote Benning as a head scout or fire him. I rather have Jim Rutherford than Benning at this point, and Gallant or Julien as head coach. We need cup experience for both positions. Benning was never a cup winning GM, so he was just riding another GM in Boston for their cup run.

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2 hours ago, gurn said:

Agree, to much term for Tanev and Markstrom.

Roussel has not been, and probably never will be, the same since his knee injury. So the extra year looks extra bad.

I think Tanev at 4 years at say 12 mil would have been manageable, but he didn't ever get the offer. But I do like Schmidt at lot, particularly now that he's settling down and he is an upgrade on CT. Hard to replace the locker room presence this year tho. 

 

We'll see if Jim can move Rooster, maybe a 1/2 retained deal for a team looking for expansion fodder? not sure. 

 

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On 2/18/2021 at 12:38 PM, Junkyard Dog said:

Trade Deadline isn’t till mid-April so I think we will wait till mid-March to evaluate our chances and decide what to do from there. 

Agree.  In all honesty, I don't/didn't expect the Canucks to make a push for another 2-3 years because they have to clear the old contracts/players off the books.   After this season we have $20M+ to do something with and I'm praying (and even little a candle at church) for JB to NOT Re-sign the over 30 old-timers (Edler/Sutter) and if possible wipe Loui off the books too with a buyout.   Plus next year another $20M+ comes off too.  By then the entire bottom 6 can be purged and replaced and we should easily be able to resign our stars Quinn and EP40 to solid contracts.   

 

So things will get better soon but in the meantime lets enjoy calling out the bounty of "less than stellar" D's and bottom 6 players we are stuck with - like Lazy Jake and Roussel (to name a few) because they wont be here much longer and in 2-3 years we might only have 1 or 2 hopeless players left on the bench to laugh at - unless JB screws that up !

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3 hours ago, DefCon1 said:

Aquaman should do fire benning before he spends any money after bad contracts expire. I dont trust Benning at all with cap space and contract negotiations. Maybe demote Benning as a head scout or fire him. I rather have Jim Rutherford than Benning at this point, and Gallant or Julien as head coach. We need cup experience for both positions. Benning was never a cup winning GM, so he was just riding another GM in Boston for their cup run.

Every GM and coach aren't cup winning ones until they actually win a cup.   Yzerman hasn't yet either.  Same with Sakic.   As far as coaches go Quin went to two finals (six and seven games) and also set a record that now is impossible to break 35 games without a loss.   But no cup.   AV took two teams to the final so far too.   Now with 32 teams ... i'm sure it's equal parts luck and talent no matter the guy.   Julien ... 66 years old ...hmmm...well i guess maybe - but how'ed he do with the Habs anyways?   Not great not bad - just like his lineups. 

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Just a thought:

 

With the way Montreal has been slipping lately, 4th place might not be entirely out of reach IF Toronto, Edmonton, and Winnipeg run away with the top three spots.  
 

Ottawa is very beatable while Calgary and Montreal are experiencing a lot of turmoil.   Canucks might be down but it might not be impossible to climb back in.  Journey of a 1000 miles begins with a single step.

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3 minutes ago, DarkIndianRises said:

Just a thought:

 

With the way Montreal has been slipping lately, 4th place might not be entirely out of reach IF Toronto, Edmonton, and Winnipeg run away with the top three spots.  
 

Ottawa is very beatable while Calgary and Montreal are experiencing a lot of turmoil.   Canucks might be down but it might not be impossible to climb back in.  Journey of a 1000 miles begins with a single step.

All those teams are playing better than us, evening “slipping”.

 

2% chance.  Not impossible, but pretty close to it.

 

I get being hopeful... but it is just not realistic now.

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1 minute ago, DarkIndianRises said:

Just a thought:

 

With the way Montreal has been slipping lately, 4th place might not be entirely out of reach IF Toronto, Edmonton, and Winnipeg run away with the top three spots.  
 

Ottawa is very beatable while Calgary and Montreal are experiencing a lot of turmoil.   Canucks might be down but it might not be impossible to climb back in.  Journey of a 1000 miles begins with a single step.

Their struggles are not as dire as ours. Both the Habs and the Flames are .500 or above while we are 6 games under .500 and have lost twice as much as we've won (OT+regulation). We have to win games

 

Then there's the fact that the Habs have our number and Marky has the potential to steal games vs us. Sens have been playing better too so IDK if it will be free wins vs them anymore.

 

Unless we go on like a 10+ game with streak we're hooped.

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50 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

Their struggles are not as dire as ours. Both the Habs and the Flames are .500 or above while we are 6 games under .500 

Unless we go on like a 10+ game with streak we're hooped.

Even the 10 game win streak probably doesn’t do it at this point.  The teams we are chasing all play each other too.... so we need to win 10 and somehow have ALL the other teams ahead of us play well under .500 for that stretch... which is tough to do when all the games they play against each other will have one winner.

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1 minute ago, Provost said:

Even the 10 game win streak probably doesn’t do it at this point.  The teams we are chasing all play each other too.... so we need to win 10 and somehow have ALL the other teams ahead of us play well under .500 for that stretch... which is tough to do when all the games they play against each other will have one winner.

We'd need the Leafs and the Jets to stand out as the top 2 teams, destroying our competition in the process and the Sens to keep playing good behind us.

 

Pipe dream at this point. Habs/Flames have a lot more leeway to figure themselves out.

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28 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

We'd need the Leafs and the Jets to stand out as the top 2 teams, destroying our competition in the process and the Sens to keep playing good behind us.

 

Pipe dream at this point. Habs/Flames have a lot more leeway to figure themselves out.

Yep pretty much.  Toronto and Winnipeg would have to win against everyone (but not us).

The Ottawa stealing points to help us path has mostly closed.  They are just two points behind us once you factor in games played.  If they steal points now, it is to pass us.

 

I guess if you assume we win 10

gamew in a row, it would be fine if Ottawa also won 10 games in a row and stole points from the teams ahead of us... by stayed two points behind us.

 

The scenarios are getting pretty far fetched...

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11 hours ago, oldnews said:

it's ok to be a Leafs fan. 

but don't expect the center-of-the-earth-delusion to be received kindly here.:P

Yo hmu with oilers knights I’ll Drink that $&!# in all day for round 3

 

you can go back to pretending hockey doesn’t exist once the Canucks are eliminiated tho :bigblush:

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32 games left, a maximum of 64 points to be had.

Nux have 18 points now, 47 more gets them 65 points...an often cited divisional playoff cut-off.

47/64 = .734 points % in next 32 games? After going .375 in the first 28!

There are currently only 3 teams in the league (TOR, TBL, VGK) that have a points % higher than .734

The Canucks would basically have to play better than the entire league to maybe make the playoffs.

Put a fork in 'er...done.:sadno:

 

 

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One thing is this PROVOST guy obviously hasn't been involved in as many heated 6-9 team leagues like I have been. One could tell this guy ... it ain't over till the fat lady sings in events like this. Only quitters quit, and losers lose, and that's why you don't give up at the 40% mark, or go out of your way to bring others down with you.

 

Over a 56 game schedule you'd have to be a complete loser to give up knowing you're in the race until the very end as long as you don't give up during the journey, but I digress ... let the people sing.

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1 hour ago, Gawdzukes said:

One thing is this PROVOST guy obviously hasn't been involved in as many heated 6-9 team leagues like I have been. One could tell this guy ... it ain't over till the fat lady sings in events like this. Only quitters quit, and losers lose, and that's why you don't give up at the 40% mark, or go out of your way to bring others down with you.

 

Over a 56 game schedule you'd have to be a complete loser to give up knowing you're in the race until the very end as long as you don't give up during the journey, but I digress ... let the people sing.

That fat guy already got fired for being a Covid denier... stop flogging that dead horse.

So glad your beer league participation has furnished you with the experience to lead an NHL franchise! 

Nobody has suggested that the players give up trying to win.  The organization, however, needs to be about winning in the long term, and setting up to actually win a Stanley Cup and not trying to eke out an extra 2-3 extra wins this season when the playoffs are a pipe dream.  It is a pipedream just to MAKE the playoffs and no team in the history of the game has come back from such long odds, at least according to a couple articles in the Athletic who referenced various proprietary stats sites.  Don't forget the goal isn't just to make the playoffs, but actually to win the Cup...and this roster is far from that calibre right now.

I think your perspective of ignoring the overall health of the franchise is actually a terrible one.  Players and coaches have the job about worrying winning day to day.  GMs and owners have to worry about winning month to month and year to year... your failure to recognize that difference would harm our team irreparably and have us continually sacrificing the future for immediate, short term wins.

Doing our best to set ourselves up for winning next season and beyond is not "quitting"... it is doing your best to win, but having a longer horizon in mind.  That is the GM's job.

Moving out cap now and creating space for opportunities in expansion and the offseason would be smart and increase our chances of winning.

Go ahead and cheer, and hope, and pray for a miracle...that is totally OK as a fan... but also hope that the people in charge are not doing that and are instead planning for the future and trying to offload rentals for picks and bad cap hits at a time when actual contending teams are thinking of how to increase their chances and may make decision which will help them in the very short term even if it effects them negatively in the long run.

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19 hours ago, CupIsComing said:

32 games left, a maximum of 64 points to be had.

Nux have 18 points now, 47 more gets them 65 points...an often cited divisional playoff cut-off.

47/64 = .734 points % in next 32 games? After going .375 in the first 28!

There are currently only 3 teams in the league (TOR, TBL, VGK) that have a points % higher than .734

The Canucks would basically have to play better than the entire league to maybe make the playoffs.

Put a fork in 'er...done.:sadno:

 

 

Yeah looks like 22-8-1 is what will be required if we look at current standings... 

Mtl is trending to 64 pts and Oilers are 65 pts. 

Canucks margin for error is 8 games...

However this season is so short and the condensed schedule with only divisional games allows for wider swings. 

Mtl was running away with the division at one point and now last 10 games are 2-5-3 and they are now a bubble team. 

If the trend continues 0.7 pts/game for the remaining 36 games, they finish the season with 48 points. 

 

I'm saying in this season any winning stretch or losing stretch is greatly magnified. Canucks went through a losing stretch but have looked a lot better in their last 10 games. 

All it takes is a streak and wins against the right opponents to be back in it. 

 

 

 

 

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