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[Edited] The Playoffs are Now out of Reach

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IF Ottawa beats Montreal in regular  time tonight.

 

Ottawa     19 points 25 games played

Montreal  23 points 21 games played

 

If Vancouver beats Winnipeg in regular time tonight:

Winnipeg   27 points in 22 games

Vancouver 22 points in 26 games

 

So even the best outcomes from tonight leave the Canucks in serious trouble.

3 points up on Ottawa,        but they have 1 game in hand

Tied with Calgary,                 but they have 3 games in hand

1 point behind Montreal,     but they have 5 games in hand

5 points behind Winnipeg,  but they have 4 games in hand

6 points behind Edmonton, but they have 2 games in hand

14 points behind Toronto,   but they have 3 games in hand

 

 

Stick a fork in this season, it is done.

Trade what they can, play as many of the youngins as possible.

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Money puck gives us a 15.7% chance of even squeaking into the playoffs.   Not impossible but one hell of a stretch to get there?  Now who actually thinks we can make it across the line with 3 OR wins in over a month?

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The simple math says we are 9 points out of the playoffs right now, assuming the teams ahead of us get the same point % that they currently have in their games in hand.  Uphill, but not impossible.  We are well rested, healthy, and have played well the past few weeks (with little to show for it).  We need to go on a stretch where we win 6 of 8, or 4 in a row.  You do that and all of a sudden things tighten up.  We have to start winning right now though

 

 

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On 2/27/2021 at 5:33 PM, DarkIndianRises said:

Just a thought:

 

With the way Montreal has been slipping lately, 4th place might not be entirely out of reach IF Toronto, Edmonton, and Winnipeg run away with the top three spots.  
 

Ottawa is very beatable while Calgary and Montreal are experiencing a lot of turmoil.   Canucks might be down but it might not be impossible to climb back in.  Journey of a 1000 miles begins with a single step.

Does Montreal play Calgary? Guranteed 2 points. It's a steep hill.

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26 minutes ago, RU SERIOUS said:

Money puck gives us a 15.7% chance of even squeaking into the playoffs.   Not impossible but one hell of a stretch to get there?  Now who actually thinks we can make it across the line with 3 OR wins in over a month?

Money Puck has a VERY generous model that is way out of line with all the other ones.  MoneyPuck's methodology ignores the first 20 games of the season and uses their win predictor based on 2008-2014 years.  We aren't the same team and the (ignored) first 20 games of the season are a far better indicator of our chances.
http://moneypuck.com/about.htm

The other, more detailed odds makers show a dramatically less chance... between 3-7%.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgi
https://theathletic.com/2318775/2021/03/02/nhl-stanley-cup-playoffs-projected-standings/

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8 minutes ago, Provost said:

Money Puck has a VERY generous model that is way out of line with all the other ones.  MoneyPuck's methodology ignores the first 20 games of the season and uses their win predictor based on 2008-2014 years.  We aren't the same team and the (ignored) first 20 games of the season are a far better indicator of our chances.
http://moneypuck.com/about.htm

The other, more detailed odds makers show a dramatically less chance... between 3-7%.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgi
https://theathletic.com/2318775/2021/03/02/nhl-stanley-cup-playoffs-projected-standings/

I would say this your cited sources are a more accurate prognosis for this season.   Nonetheless, Canucks need to keep battling.   One game at a time.   I would argue that over the last 9-10 games or so, the Canucks have really only been outplayed twice (both games against the Oilers).  We deserved to have swept Calgary, probably should have taken all the games against Winnipeg, and probably deserved to beat Toronto in that last game that we played against them out East.  
 

Percentages are not on our side but a journey of a thousand miles always begins with a single step.    
 

If the Canucks win 6 in a row, I think we re-enter the conversation.

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15 minutes ago, Chris12345 said:

Does Montreal play Calgary? Guranteed 2 points. It's a steep hill.

They will likely play each other a number of times more.  The exact number however, I am not sure.  
 

We play Calgary four more times I believe, and Montreal 3-4 times.    If we can defeat those guys in the remainder of our games while having similar records against other teams in our remaining games, then we’re right there in the thick of things.   
 

One game at a time though.   That’s the mindset we need to adopt.

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1 hour ago, warrchief said:

Trade the expiring contracts of value and book it for the next season.

Absolutely !  None of the over 30 crowd should  be re-signed this year or next if we can get something for them.  the only exception might be Edler on a short term (Year to Year) contract.  Lazy Jake should also be unloaded ASAP - which I'm sure is already in the works.

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There is still a path to the playoffs through Ott (6), Cgy (4) and Mtl (4) (games left to play) that’s 14 must win 4 point games.  Cgy and Mtl are both in tailspins right now.

 

We would probably need to be around 500 with the 17 other games against Edm, Wpg and Tor with those 14 wins

 

But every loss against Mtl and Cgy the rest of the way would need to be made up against those 3 teams at a rate of 2 to 1

 

Weird year with every game being 4 points with some wins and losses worth more than others.  Our season series with Mtl is done by the 20th of March and we’ll have played Ottawa twice more by then as well.

 

The team has been playing well enough the last ten games to be 6-2-2 over that time rather than the 3-5-2 that we were.

 

I will wait to the 20th to put the final nail in this year

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16 minutes ago, ChuckNORRIS4Cup said:

Best Friends Lol GIF by Boomerang Official

At least we have two games against the lowly Leafs coming up so we can put those 4 points in the bank.

 

....

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4 hours ago, bbllpp said:

There is still a path to the playoffs through Ott (6), Cgy (4) and Mtl (4) (games left to play) that’s 14 must win 4 point games.  Cgy and Mtl are both in tailspins right now.

 

We would probably need to be around 500 with the 17 other games against Edm, Wpg and Tor with those 14 wins

That is a fancy way to say we need to be at least 23-7 the rest of the way... to be on the playoff bubble.

 

 

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No unbelievably epic 15+ game win streak no playoffs. Well actually we’d maybe still be fighting for a spot.
 

So essentially no playoffs. 
 

End of March we have a huge break. That would be a good time to move our assets and call up whoever we need to call up. 

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Oilers on a 10-2 run. If we do something similar we'd be in the playoffs.

 

It ain't over yet, but the problem is we've shown no signs of improvement. Yes, the 5 breakaways a game are gone, but our goalies are still leaking in goals against at bad times and our bottom 6 aren't scoring much.

 

Unless Demko gets hot and we just run with him, I don't see us putting together a big run. Edmonton managed it because they're finally playing better defensively, McDavid has always been scoring for them. Now we need to do the same and that change isn't going to come from Holtby.

 

A 10-2 run would put us 19-17-2 which would probably have us just in the playoff picture. Anything less won't cut it, looks like 0.550-0.600 hockey is the cut off in this division.

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12 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Oilers on a 10-2 run. If we do something similar we'd be in the playoffs.

 

It ain't over yet, but the problem is we've shown no signs of improvement. Yes, the 5 breakaways a game are gone, but our goalies are still leaking in goals against at bad times and our bottom 6 aren't scoring much.

 

Unless Demko gets hot and we just run with him, I don't see us putting together a big run. Edmonton managed it because they're finally playing better defensively, McDavid has always been scoring for them. Now we need to do the same and that change isn't going to come from Holtby.

 

A 10-2 run would put us 19-17-2 which would probably have us just in the playoff picture. Anything less won't cut it, looks like 0.550-0.600 hockey is the cut off in this division.

Thing is we'd only be 2 games over .500. Where would the Flames/Habs be at that point? I can't imagine that they both keep losing in that time.

 

Habs/Leafs have our number. Markstrom is coming back soon for the Flames. 

 

Flames and Habs have waaaaaaaaay more leeway to turn things around.

 

We've also struggled to find any sort of consistency. The only time we've had back to back wins was back in January vs the Sens(+1 game vs the Jets) in a 4 game win streak and we followed that 4 game winning streak with a 5 game losing streak.

 

Overall we'd need to go on an epic 15+ game win streak. Pipedream at this point.

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  AT 8:53 am on March 3/21     

   23 17 4 2 36 .783 15 17 81 55 +26 9-3-1 8-1-1 0-0 7-2-1 W3
2  Winnipeg 22 14 7 1 29 .659 10 14 74 59 +15 9-4-1 5-3-0 0-1 7-3-0 W1
3  Edmonton 24 14 10 0 28 .583 13 14 79 72 +7 6-7-0 8-3-0 0-0 7-3-0 L2
4  Montréal 21 10 6 5 25 .595 10 10 68 61 +7 4-5-0 6-1-5 0-2 3-4-3 W1
5  Calgary 23 10 11 2 22 .478 8 9 59 70 -11 4-4-0 6-7-2 1-0 3-6-1 L1
6  Vancouver 26 9 15 2 20 .385 8 8 74 90 -16 5-6-2 4-9-0 1-0 3-5-2 L1
7  Ottawa 25 8 16 1 17 .340 5 7 67 95 -28 5-6-1 3-10-0 1-0 6-4-0 L1
Edited by gurn
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my amusement at Calgary having a losing record matches my disappointment in another lost year.

 

But this year was always going to stink, with the inevitable cap problems coming home to roost, and the Canadian division is playing out just like I though it would, for the best tv revenue possible. 

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