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Laying down on the Job. Myers reverting to his Buffalo +- days

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What do you do with a problem like Myeria?  

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5 hours ago, Josepho said:

 

 

He’s being deployed in “top pair” TOI by the Canucks, who we all remember, have a fully funded analytics department... but if you don’t buy this “hockey war” chart that clearly shows he’s 1% among the worst defencemen in the league you’re an old school dinosaur who’s capitulating to cognitive biases. 
 

Why wouldn’t I call into question the validity of this? Why do I care about his XGA% Especially when his ACTUAL GA/60 both for 5v5 and on the PK is middle of the pack for the team and he’s getting a normal save percentage.  
 

He’s also spent the year paired with Juolevi/Hughes/Benn - he’d likely look a lot better on a pairing next to Edler or Schmidt.  
 

Like, I get it that he isn’t great in his own end but if we replaced his minutes with an ACTUAL replacement like Chatfield or Rafferty we’d see a giant drop off.  Whatever variables are being adjusted to produce this are obviously not giving the whole picture.  Like, at all.

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1 hour ago, ilduce39 said:

He’s being deployed in “top pair” TOI by the Canucks, who we all remember, have a fully funded analytics department... but if you don’t buy this “hockey war” chart that clearly shows he’s 1% among the worst defencemen in the league you’re an old school dinosaur who’s capitulating to cognitive biases. 
 

Why wouldn’t I call into question the validity of this? Why do I care about his XGA% Especially when his ACTUAL GA/60 both for 5v5 and on the PK is middle of the pack for the team and he’s getting a normal save percentage.  
 

He’s also spent the year paired with Juolevi/Hughes/Benn - he’d likely look a lot better on a pairing next to Edler or Schmidt.  
 

Like, I get it that he isn’t great in his own end but if we replaced his minutes with an ACTUAL replacement like Chatfield or Rafferty we’d see a giant drop off.  Whatever variables are being adjusted to produce this are obviously not giving the whole picture.  Like, at all.

I don't think he's among the worst defencemen in the league, but when pretty much all analytics models hate the player (IneffectiveMath and EvolvingWild being two other examples), there very likely is some sort of issue with the player. 

 

xGA is a better actual predictor of future performance, and it's not like his GA is even great.

 

Agree that he'd look better next to Edler/Schmidt, but as a 6mil player you have to be able to carry your pairing to some degree. Obviously he's better than Chatfield/Rafferty but that's more of a reflection on this team's godawful depth than anything else. I fully admit that this is also probably not the best organizational fit for him.

 

I actually think most of your points are pretty reasonable here.

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3 hours ago, ilduce39 said:

He’s being deployed in “top pair” TOI by the Canucks, who we all remember, have a fully funded analytics department... but if you don’t buy this “hockey war” chart that clearly shows he’s 1% among the worst defencemen in the league you’re an old school dinosaur who’s capitulating to cognitive biases. 
 

Why wouldn’t I call into question the validity of this? Why do I care about his XGA% Especially when his ACTUAL GA/60 both for 5v5 and on the PK is middle of the pack for the team and he’s getting a normal save percentage.  
 

He’s also spent the year paired with Juolevi/Hughes/Benn - he’d likely look a lot better on a pairing next to Edler or Schmidt.  
 

Like, I get it that he isn’t great in his own end but if we replaced his minutes with an ACTUAL replacement like Chatfield or Rafferty we’d see a giant drop off.  Whatever variables are being adjusted to produce this are obviously not giving the whole picture.  Like, at all.

Honestly its hilarious to me that anyone would suggest Myers is in the worst 1%. How anyone could watch last nights game and tweet that out is a stunner.

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6 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Honestly its hilarious to me that anyone would suggest Myers is in the worst 1%. How anyone could watch last nights game and tweet that out is a stunner.

Because there's a thing called a "sample size" instead of basing your opinion on 60 minutes.

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I have preferred his play this season over last. His ability to lean on other guys is unmatched by any other defender we have. He's also a good guy and really buys into the team.

 

But Myers is Myers and you get whatever you get. He won't really wow you in any way, and isn't particularly talented.

 

My ideal scenario: Taken by Seattle in the ED. Bring in Tryamkin who adds far more effective hitting and intimidation at a third or less of the price.

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59 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Honestly its hilarious to me that anyone would suggest Myers is in the worst 1%. How anyone could watch last nights game and tweet that out is a stunner.

He’s at the bottom of the barrel with Hughes, Provorov, Rasmus Andersson, Josh Morrisey and Seth Myers.  
 

Pretty obvious the “model” penalizes guys who play big minutes.  It’s one thing to play around with trying to boil down players to an overall score and it’s another to slurp it up with a spoon.  You could have a pretty awesome defence going off the “worst war” charts.

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I’d love to see Myers cross check and punch an analytics expert.
 

I wonder if it would change their mind...

 

Theyd probably analyze that as well...

 

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2 hours ago, ilduce39 said:

He’s at the bottom of the barrel with Hughes, Provorov, Rasmus Andersson, Josh Morrisey and Seth Myers.  
 

Pretty obvious the “model” penalizes guys who play big minutes.  It’s one thing to play around with trying to boil down players to an overall score and it’s another to slurp it up with a spoon.  You could have a pretty awesome defence going off the “worst war” charts.

The problem with mathematical models is in their nature.  They are only that; models.  They are very prone to GIGO (garbage in, garbage out).

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27 minutes ago, Lil B From The Pack said:

That sounds awfully aggressive there mate.

Some people here are more concerned with getting upset with the people who disagree with him instead of trying to understand why they are being disagreed with.

 

And when you come at them with facts and logic, the only thing they have left is to resort to posting something similar to what you quoted there.

 

Humans hate discomfort.

Edited by kanucks25
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3 hours ago, Lil B From The Pack said:

That sounds awfully aggressive there mate.

Just illustrating, the incalculable components of the game; heart, will, and doing what you need to do go get it done.

 

Myers is a good example of that which cannot be fully calculated with analytics.

 

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10 hours ago, kanucks25 said:

@Nucksownyou Not sure whose multi you are but most of your posts revolve around strawman arguments:

 

 

 

 

Who said they did? Who said they should?

 

And how many "traditional hockey guys" off CDC have been hired to NHL teams? Of course not every analytics guy on twitter is going to be hired by an NHL team, how is that in any way realistic?

 

Just an absolute joke of a string of posts lol.

It's crazy reading your posts and seeing that you genuinely think you are clever when you are anything but. I guess you would know all about joke posts, since that is all you know how to post.

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5 hours ago, kanucks25 said:

Because there's a thing called a "sample size" instead of basing your opinion on 60 minutes.

Except it wasn't just one 60 minute game. There were plenty of games this season Myers played well. It is rather pathetic how you are in denial about that. No wonder you love idiots like JFresh so much.

Edited by Nucksownyou
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On a contender type team with a decent defence, he is a 3rd pair guy who could play some 2nd pair minutes in a pinch, but it would not be preferable

 

On our team, he is more than that 

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45 minutes ago, Nucksownyou said:

It's crazy reading your posts and seeing that you genuinely think you are clever when you are anything but. I guess you would know all about joke posts, since that is all you know how to post.

Yet you have no rebuttal to anything I said.

 

All you did was make up hyperbolic statements that nobody said and then argued against them.

 

Everyone here watches the games. All you did was get upset that someone posted statistical evidence that supports their argument.

 

Instead of calling everyone an idiot, why don't you provide some evidence that supports your case other than "my eye-test is better than yours".

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43 minutes ago, Nucksownyou said:

There were plenty of games this season Myers played well. It is rather pathetic how you are in denial about that. 

When did I deny that? Find a post. Link it. Otherwise this is just another strawman.

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42 minutes ago, kanucks25 said:

When did I deny that? Find a post. Link it. Otherwise this is just another strawman.

LOL, "strawman." The fact that you are getting bent out of shape because there are people who don't think Myers is garbage is all the proof I need. Nice try, though.

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2 minutes ago, Nucksownyou said:

LOL, "strawman." The fact that you are getting bent out of shape because there are people who don't think Myers is garbage is all the proof I need. Nice try, though.

How am I getting bent out of shape? :lol:

 

Just trying to have a discussion but you're too busy having an argument with yourself with how you just make up things that nobody said and explain why it's wrong (and not doing a very good job of it either, 'cause you still haven't provided any actual evidence to support your case).

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On 2/26/2021 at 12:25 PM, shayster007 said:

Yeah, I disagree. I actually have quite liked his game this year. He has had some rough games, some bad plays, but overall he has been good. Would love if he took a few less penalities, but I also like that he has some bite so wouldn't want him to change to much.

Bang on. He's been very good. I've never understood the dislike. I've never had any issue with him coming here , and to be honest , was stoked when we signed him. Never been on the bash Myers train. He has pretty much brought exactly what was expected of him when they signed him. 

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27 minutes ago, cuporbust said:

Bang on. He's been very good. I've never understood the dislike. I've never had any issue with him coming here , and to be honest , was stoked when we signed him. Never been on the bash Myers train. He has pretty much brought exactly what was expected of him when they signed him. 

Right? If you expected a rock steady defensive stud who could consistently shut down the opposing top players nightly, well that's on you for not knowing Myers game when we signed him, not on Myers. He has always been criticised for some bone headed plays and high value defensive blunders, but he has also always been a player who can handle himself well in the offensive end and lead the team with physical play when need be. You could argue he might have been slightly overpaid, but that's the price of doing business with a top 4 R handed D man in free agency. 

 

Myers has been exactly the player I thought he would be when we signed him, and I'm glad we did.

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