[GDT/PGT] Vancouver Canucks vs. Winnipeg Jets | March 24, 2021 | 7:30 p.m. PT | SNP

[canuck73_3]

1 minute ago, Devron44 said:

I know the odds but they can change quite drastically over the next 10 games like I said Montreal would have to lose a few and the Canucks win a few. I don’t pack it in. I watch to win but I respect the fact it’s a bit of a dream.

Stranger things have happened but I'll take actual on ice results over math done on paper. 

[garthsbutcher]

14 minutes ago, WHL rocks said:

Yeah Canucks have a 1.1% chance of making playoffs. MTL has 97.3% chance. 

 

We're not catching them. 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com

So you are saying there is a chance!!

[khay]

11 minutes ago, CptCanuck16 said:

I'm sure Benning tried moving anyone he could to keep Toffoli and in the end it didn't work out. Its really easy to play armchair GM with the clarity of hindsight on your side but in the real world things are a little more complex.

Absolutely. I'm sure nobody wants Roussel even if we offered Gaudette. 

 

But then there was that comment, "ran out of time."

 

Leaves you wondering, what if we had more time. Could something have been worked out?

 

 

[canuck73_3]

1 hour ago, kanucks25 said:

When did I say he's not being used in all situations? You're really good at makings up and just arguing with yourself lol.

 

He's not used as the shutdown guy vs the other team's top lines. Do you dispute this? Because if you watch the games you know Green sends out Edler - Schmidt vs top lines as much as possible.

 

You say this like I'm spinning something, when really it's really quite simple:

 

I see bad play + bad stats = bad player

 

You see good play + bad stats = good player

 

So we can agree to disagree on the eye-test, but let's not pretend like I'm throwing out a hot take by saying a player who has been bad statistically is bad.

 

I never said otherwise.

 

I already answered this:

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, oldnews said:

 

 

Part of the problem in this thread is that Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick calculate zone starts differently.

 

Neither is "correct" or "wrong".

 

What you refer to as zone starts - (I'm assuming you are referencing Natural Stat trick in your original response - you haven't sourced your numbers but it's pretty clear) - they are actually the divided metric that NST uses.

You left out one of their two defensive zone calculations

 

For Natural Stat Trick, 'zone starts' refer to shift starts.

 

Natural Stat Trick:

"Def. Zone Starts - Number of shifts for the player that started with an defensive zone faceoff.

Def. Zone Faceoffs - Number of faceoffs in the defensive zone for which the player was on the ice."

 

You refer to Myers as having 73 ozone starts on the season.

However, NST also reference Myers as having 191 defensive zone faceoffs.

 

Really - they should/could clean up their language - to reflect defensive zone shift starts - as opposed to 'zone starts' which can easily be considered to mean the larger metric.

 

HockeyReference - refers to "zone starts" as the larger metric - not simply "shift starts" - but zone stoppages/starts.

 

Let's look at HockeyReference for a moment.. who do not separate the 'starts' into shift starts/ and defensive zone faceoffs.   The separation can be useful (imo to a lesser extent) - but still a metric worth separating - however the language of 'analytics' gets muddied by the fact zone starts refer to what are actually different metrics in the end.

 

I'm not going to calculate every game this season, but I'm going to work back over the games this month / March - to illustrate.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/VAN/2021_games.html

The first numbers are all situations, the last is dzone starts at 5 on 5.

 

March 24 vs Jets = 10 ozone, 11 dzone / 47.6% ozone / 7 dzone at es/5 on 5.

March 22 vs Jets = 8 ozone, 6 dzone / 57.1% / 5 dzone at es

March 20 vs Habs = 3 ozone, 7 dzone / 30% / 7 dzone at es

March 19 vs Habs = 5 ozone, 11 dzone, 31.3% / 5 dzone at es

March 17 vs Sens = 1 ozone, 12 dzone, 7.7% / 7 dzone at es

March 15 vs Sens = 11 ozone, 10 dzone, 52.4% / 4 dzone at es

March 13 vs Oilers = 8 ozone, 5 dzone, 61.5% / 2 dzone at es.

March 10 vs Habes = 2 ozone, 15 dzone, 11.8% / 10 dzone at es

March 8 vs Habs = 4 ozone, 6 dzone, 40% / 4 dzone at es

March 6 vs Leafs = 7 ozone, 5 dzone, 58.3% / 4 dzone at es

March 4 vs Leafs = 0 ozone, 17 dzone, 0% / 9 dzone at es

March 2 vs Jets = 5 ozone, 14 dzone, 26.3% / 11 dzone starts at es

March 1 vs Jets = 5 ozone, 11 dzone, 31.3% / 6 dzone at es.

 

13 games = 81 defensive zone 'starts' at even strength / 5 on 5.   Obviously not limited to shift starts - but faceoffs overall - zone 'starts' after stoppages.

Which is more than 6 defensive zone faceoffs/'starts' per game.

130 all situations  = 10 defensive zone faceoffs after stoppages per game.  Quite significant actually, when a player might get 20 to 25 shifts a night.

 

So - there is not a 'right' or 'wrong' way of referring to zone starts - but there are different metrics - and it makes a significant difference which you are referring to

 

Using Natural Stat Tricks numbers.

159 ozone faceoffs where he was on the ice 5 on 5.

188 neutral zone

191 dzone.

538 starts after stoppages - in descending order from dzone, to neutral to ozone. 

 

On the fly shift starts = 460.  Obviously all 460 are shift starts

 

On the fly starts, however - can't be broken down more meaningfully into the offensive/defensive territorial implication of those shifts.  What the zone 'starts'/faceoffs actually give you - are the general intention of a coaches' deployment - what they do when they are able to 'control' deployment (ie it's entirely possible that a very similar 'deployment' intention emerges if the 'on the fly' starts were able to be broken down further).   And where 'possession'/shot differential metrics are concerned, defensive zone faceoffs - particularly when the gap between ozone and dzone increases, is conversely a more significant / valuable metric than you are suggesting - and impacts metrics like corsi to an 'expected' degree.  Not quite as limited in weight as suggested when relying on the NST shift start metric - and certainly not meaningless, whatsoever (not your claim, but others attempt to take it that far, and that is a negative value claim).   The reality is that a small percentage of the larger faceoffs/'starts' would follow an icing - ie a compulsory defensive zone start - one that the coach does not have a choice - where they are not making a deployment/matchup etc decision - otherwise both metrics allow a person to glean both a coaches' general intention, and the degree to which their 'expected' 'possession'/shot differential metrics would be effected (the more limited 'shift starts' arguably underplays the impact by a factor of about 3X).

 

Myers - whose deployment is relatively close to neutral - marginally weighted to the dzone - is arguably not as 'effected' as players like Beagle and Motte, etc would be.

Offensive zone faceoffs - perhaps that should be the OP's 'descriptor' as opposed to 'zone starts' to avoid the confusion - or folks like yourself who use NST might specify that you mean shift starts - the "starts" part is ambiguous - as opposed to 'zone starts' = easy to see how it would generate confusion/disagreement.

 

Myers ozone faceoffs is 45.43% via NST - whereas more strictly shutdown players like Beagle and Motte are at 25.31% and 27.59% respectively.  Myers - who gets 44.99% offensive zone 'starts' (by the Hockey Reference metric) - has, imo, a relatively 'expected' corsi of 45.6%  (not 'bad' outcomes) - fairly 'neutral' if 'adjusted'.

 

 

 

Way more in depth and accurate assessment of Myers 

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, WHL rocks said:

CAR is the best team in the league. Beat Tampa Bay today and own the best win % in the entire NHL now.

 

We are 8th worst in the entire NHL.

 

Who would have thought this before the season started. 

I wouldn't have guessed we'd be was bad as we have been (and I don't think our record is indicative of the actual quality of our roster) but CAR is a pretty damn good team. 

[4petesake]

I see Vintage already posted this (of course!) on the Hamonic thread but if you didn’t see it:

 

 

Dan Riccio

 

@danriccio_

·

2h

 

.

@FriedgeHNIC

reports on Headlines that Hamonic will not waive his NTC. #canucks

 

[FaninMex]

2 minutes ago, 4petesake said:

I see Vintage already posted this (of course!) on the Hamonic thread but if you didn’t see it:

 

 

Dan Riccio

 

@danriccio_

·

2h

 

.

@FriedgeHNIC

reports on Headlines that Hamonic will not waive his NTC. #canucks

 

Not really a surprise. He signed with us because of his family.

[4petesake]

2 minutes ago, FaninMex said:

Not really a surprise. He signed with us because of his family.

For sure. It doesn’t say if he was asked (I hope that he wasn’t) by the Canucks. At least it will stop any trade talk about him on here.

[FaninMex]

Just now, 4petesake said:

For sure. It doesn’t say if he was asked (I hope that he wasn’t) by the Canucks. At least it will stop any trade talk about him on here.

Are you new here?

No it won't.

It also will not stop people from saying IF or changing the whole narrative.

[canuck73_3]

1 minute ago, FaninMex said:

Are you new here?

No it won't.

It also will not stop people from saying IF or changing the whole narrative.

No different than all the clowns blaming JB for not trading the Sedin’s as if that was ever a legit option 

[FaninMex]

Just now, canuck73_3 said:

No different than all the clowns blaming JB for not trading the Sedin’s as if that was ever a legit option 

Always the same clowns.

[aGENT]

41 minutes ago, canuck73_3 said:

No different than all the clowns blaming JB for not trading the Sedin’s as if that was ever a legit option 

Ditto on Edler.

[WeneedLumme]

2 hours ago, WHL rocks said:

CAR is the best team in the league. Beat Tampa Bay today and own the best win % in the entire NHL now.

 

We are 8th worst in the entire NHL.

 

Who would have thought this before the season started. 

Anybody who checked out our schedule at the beginning of the season and was aware of the fact that the replacements for our number one goalie, our number one defensive Dman, a top six forward and another Dman had not even met their teammates yet, would not have been hugely surprised by our terrible start.

[Dumb Nuck]

Well I was hoping Aquaman would use the break to take care of business but sadly he’s a stubborn SOB but on the bright side Green is #1 for something.

 

 

[FaninMex]

12 minutes ago, Dumb Nuck said:

Well I was hoping Aquaman would use the break to take care of business but sadly he’s a stubborn SOB but on the bright side Green is #1 for something.

 

 

He was never going to get fired this season.

[Dumb Nuck]

43 minutes ago, FaninMex said:

He was never going to get fired this season.

One can still dream.

[FaninMex]

13 minutes ago, Dumb Nuck said:

One can still dream.

It often happens on here. Go right ahead.

[DS4quality]

1 hour ago, Dumb Nuck said:

Well I was hoping Aquaman would use the break to take care of business but sadly he’s a stubborn SOB but on the bright side Green is #1 for something.

 

 

If you made the bet you would have been wrong, Ralph Kruger won... Er lost, Er... I dunno 

[viking mama]

6 hours ago, viking mama said:

Frozen Four will be in Pittsburgh/Boston, April 8 thru 10th. 

If UND prevails, I expect Kawaguchi, an undrafted NCAA two-time first-team all-star, will get at least a few NHL teams re-kicking his tires.

Sadly, UND will not advance to the 2021 Frozen 4.

 

Falling behind after seeing goals scored on a deflection & then a break-away following an exploding stick, UND battled back valiantly to tie the game after pulling their goalie to score 2 late/quick 3rd period goals. Capt’n Clutch himself, Jordan Kawaguchi, potted the tying goal while pouncing upon a rebound.
 

The teams then endured 5 overtime periods, of the longest hockey game ever played in NCAA Championship tournament history, with multiple UND players hitting posts & cross bars with shots & missing with a flutter puck sent up over the Duluth goalie’s back - before Minnesota-Duluth scores that  golden goal. 
 

The coach of Duluth said his players were tired & cramping and this after receiving the gift of a bye, past their 1st round opponents due to Covid-protocols. The UND players also endured the same marathon, despite playing back to back games. Can you imagine their discomfort by comparison?
 

Without a fortunate bye to 1 team, the outcome of this match could have been quite different.

 

Total respect!!! 

Edited March 28, 2021 by viking mama

[viking mama]

11 hours ago, Toyotasfan said:

I think he has extremely high value, a top 10 winger in the league value. I don’t stand behind trading him , but he may be the most sought after player on the team. I was just kinda fishing the idea because I’m bored with the Canucks lay off.

Our centres, especially Bo, should be nearly untouchable as trade fodder. 
 

They are so hard to come by, just like RH shooting D-men, which are also rare. Yet, these are the very  commodities that Benning seems willing to toss aside easier than snot-flavoured jelly-beans. 
 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2021 by viking mama