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Rebuild Starts now? (proposals) (Long read)


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Ok, the first thing that I need to be clear about, is this is a 21/2 year Rebuild and should put us in position to compete by the 2021-2022 Season, and be top 10 the following season. It will also put us in a good position to continue to stock from within. 

 

The 2nd thing you must believe is that Benning and crew are one of the better scouting departments in the NHL. The next thing you must believe is that there will be alot of misses at the 2020-2021 Draft. No, this is not a liquidate for draft picks, but rather a sell off of redundant assets.

 

And lastly, yes there is a shocker!

 

So, as Billabong has posted in his "Blow up thread", which I agree the Canucks should do. The following players should be moved at this years TDL..................

 

Pearson...............................to Toronto @ 50 % for a 2022 2nd

Sutter...................................to Edmonton @ 50 % for a 2021 2nd 

Edler....................................to Toronto @ 50 % for a 2021 2nd

Benn....................................to Montreal @ 50 % for a 2021 3rd

Hamonic..............................to Winnipeg @ 50 % for a 2022 3rd

 

Why so high of returns. I simply believe that most teams are un easy on this years draft, and that combined with retaining 50 % of each players salary, elevates each pick by a factor of 1. The 2022's returns, are also devalued, albeit not by as much, because normally if a team has to wait, the return improves. All in all, this is my belief. I would also say, that after reviewing trades from past TDL's, these are fair returns. In some cases, they are less than what was paid for a lesser player. One could easily argue that Pearson, Sutter and Edler are all equal to Coleman, who went to Tampa for a 1st at last years TDL

 

Barclay Goodrow for Tampa's 1st

Andreas Athanisiou for 2X Edmonton 2nd's

Marco Scandella for STL 2nd and 4th

Brenden Dillion for Col 2nd and Wsh 3rd

Dylan Demelo for Winn 3rd

Blake Coleman for Van's 1st

Jack Campbell and Kyle Clifford for 2X Toronto's 3rds 

 

Generally I left the high end trades, where the return was for more with a greater return. I might also add that none of the trades had retention that I noticed. So again, I think with retention, these are reasonable returns.

 

So entering the summer, we have approx. 17 million coming off the books............................................We will also be dropping in the standings, because of the substanual loss of veterans. This will improve our own pick positions. (Forecast: to be a top 5 pick)

 

At the Expansion draft, Vancouver will deal with Seattle to take goaltender Braden Holtby, by adding Jake Virtanen and Michael DiPietro

Also at this time, Vancouver will be announcing a trade with Ottawa Senators.......Loui Eriksson + Adam Gaudette and a 2023 1st for a 2021 2nd

 

This will also decrease the Vancouver Canucks Budget by an additional 14.8 Million

 

This will leave the Canucks with approx. 31.8 million Dollars..........................the Canucks are NOT finished! 

 

If by this point you have not stopped reading....................Remember, Dream Big! Or don't dream at all!

 

The Canucks will then announce the signings of Pettersson 8 years @ 7,500,000, Hughes 3 years @ 6,500,000, and Demko 6 years @ 6,000,000. This will make a collective payout for 3 core players of 20 Million dollars, and leave us with approx. 12 million left .

 

The Canucks will then enter free agency with approx. 12 million left + Ryan Spooner 1.0 + Sven Baertschi's (2.2 M) 3.3 Million, which equals approx. a Total of approx 15 million

 

The Canucks will then announce the signings of 6 players

 

UFA .Dougie Hamilton = 8,500,000

UFA .Adam Lowry = 4,250,000

UFA Scott Wedgewood = 1,500,000

RFA Nikita Tryamkin = 2,250,000

RFA Vasili Podkolzin = 925,000

RFA Kole Lind = 1,250,000

 

In the biggest move of the Summer, the Vancouver Canucks Trade Quinn Hughes to Arizona for Jacob Chychrun, Victor Soderstrom and a 2022 2nd.

 

The move will save Vancouver approx 2,000,000 per year and will be used to cover Vasili Podkolzin and Kole Lind salaries.

 

It should also be noted that "IF" a deal is offered for either 1 of Tyler Myers or Nate Schmidt, the Canucks will make that move, if the offer is solid. 

 

These moves will be made to increase the size and aggression of the Vancouver Canucks, as well as the overall talent, of the present and the future.

 

Next 2 years Draft picks will be as Follows:

 

2021.............Van 1st (5th OA), Ottawa 2nd 34th OA, Van 2nd 37th,OA, EDM 2nd, TOR 2nd, Van 3rd, Montreal 3rd, Van 4th, Van 5th, Van 6th, Van 7th (11 picks)

2022.............Van 1st (16th OA), Van 2nd 48th, Arizona 2nd, TOR 2nd, Winn 3rd, Van 4th, Van 5th, Van 6th, Van 7th (9 picks)

 

TDL 2022-2023 Out

Roussel (3 Million)

Summer Out

Beagle (3 Million)

Luongo Recapture Penalty (3 Million)

 

2021-2022 Roster

 

Miller          Pettersson      Boeser                                         Chychrun (22)       Hamilton (27)                                     Demko (25)

Hoglander     Horvat        Podkolzin                                       Juolevi (22)          Myers (31)                                          Wedgewood (26)

Motte             Lowry          McEwen                                        Rathbone (21)      Schmidt (29)

Roussel         Beagle           Lind                                                        Tryamkin (26)

 

Notable Prospects..............Soderstrom (20), Woo (20)

Possible Notables..............Gadjovich(22), Lockwood (22) Jasek(23), Silovs(20)

 

My Roster at Cap Friendly is $79,500,000, so pardon my math, but I am going with Cap Friendly numbers

 

 

Remember, this is next years roster, and I said playoffs next year, top 10 in 2 years...............Hey Remember! Dream big or go home!

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Are you hoping that all those players get traded or are those just your targets? I am under the impression that a team can only retain salaries on 3 players at a time.

Edited by Fen1010
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You can only retain on 3 contracts 


Every one of those players except Pearson has some sort of trade protection. 
 

Montreal won’t want Benn back. If they trade for a defenceman it’ll be for someone better than him 

Edited by qwijibo
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4 hours ago, Monkeyking said:

I would not trade Micheal dipietro just to get rid of JV, BH . Dipietro is too much of a gem and better off having him as a backup to demko 

Agree. And if clearing cap is the issue, just buy out Holtby and trade JV for a pick or prospect.

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Hi Jan. Looking at this in detail, its clear you have put in a lot of thought and work. I feel the crux of this massive proposal is really the proposed deal with Arizona (trading Hughes for two young Dmen) and doing deals with Seattle/Ottawa to take a bunch of our dead cap so that we can sign some high end UFAs.

 

The Arizona deal is contentious. I kind of like the thought there. It will never happen, but I see where you are coming from.

 

The deals with SEA/OTT, I wonder if it could be simpler by just doing a straight deal with Seattle to take Loui + Gaudette + 1st in the expansion draft. Then trade Virtanen for a pick and buy out Hotlby. Achieves pretty much the same outcome but doesn't rely on two different deals and we don't lose Dipietro.

 

Selling a bunch of expiring contracts is exactly what JB will be trying to do now, so not exactly a new idea, and how many can be sold for how much by the TDL will depend on the needs of the buyer, not the needs of the seller. We might be able to trade a couple of guys.

 

Buying a large group of UFAs next season is exactly what JB is trying to avoid. It is very expensive and often doesn't work out how you expect (players don't have chemistry etc) - look at Schmidt this season and times that by 4 key new players to the Canucks.

 

My final thought is that the D roster looks very offensive but I really do not see many guys that are good in their own end apart from Juolevi. I think our D corps needs more balance.

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I appreciate the effort you put in.  I wouldn't do the Hughes trade.  Our defense looks a lot better with Hughes in it.  That left side looks very thin.  If Juelovi cannot get into the lineup this year, we don't want him as our second pair guy.  I would try to move Meyers instead of Holtby.  We can do one more season of Holtby.  Make the trade with Seattle, but sub in Meyers instead of Holtby.  

 

 

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11 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Pearson...............................to Toronto @ 50 % for a 2022 2nd

Sutter...................................to Edmonton @ 50 % for a 2021 2nd 

Edler....................................to Toronto @ 50 % for a 2021 2nd

Benn....................................to Montreal @ 50 % for a 2021 3rd

Hamonic..............................to Winnipeg @ 50 % for a 2022 3rd

Hey Jan

 

So just going to look at this part, which I think is important to look at. And yes I'm gong to be a downer here.

 

This is maybe the hardest year in NHL history to move salary. So the 50% retention is likely a must. But thats only one part of these deals, there's the trade partners cap space and need. 

 

WPG - they don't really need Hamonic. 

 

MTL - they don't need Benn, they need offence.

 

TO - who are they going to send back to us to make those moves happen?  don't see anyone on an expiring deal who they could send to us.

 

EDM - Sutter to them makes a lot of sense, but they'd have to send us Chaisson, which I don't think they do. 

 

 

TBH I'd be surprised if we are able to make a single trade this TDL with any of these teams. Hope I'm wrong but it looks to me like theres just too many hurdles to overcome, unless one of these teams sustains an injury I just don't see how the math works. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Janisa has been busy.

Some of that is plausible, some is not.

I would not trade Hughes, nor do I think he is or ever will be a true top-pairing Dman. But he is a rare and valuable specialist. The Canucks have scarcely ever had a PP QB of his ability. In a league where skating ability is paramount, letting him go is a huge mistake. The problem with Hughes is that the Canucks are going to have to pay him as a top-pairing Dman to keep him here long-term. Jim (or his replacement) need to plan for that.

The other noteworthy part is Tryamkin. He's not going to leave Russia to come here for $2.25M/year. I don't think you'd get him for double that amount. 

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LA, NJ, OTT, DET all over 19 mil in cap space - they are going to hoover up expiring money deals for picks. Maybe once that smoke clears we can maybe see some deals happen but I think we'll have to wait for the giant money vacuum to occur before we can move anyone significant that isn't a salary swap.

 

 

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10 hours ago, qwijibo said:

You can only retain on 3 contracts 


Every one of those players except Pearson has some sort of trade protection. 
 

Montreal won’t want Benn back. If they trade for a defenceman it’ll be for someone better than him 

 

11 hours ago, Fen1010 said:

Are you hoping that all those players get traded or are those just your targets? I am under the impression that a team can only retain salaries on 3 players at a time.

I must have lost those brain cells on the "Retaining only 3" Good point guys.......I still think we could get the value with some of them without the retention

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5 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

Hi Jan. Looking at this in detail, its clear you have put in a lot of thought and work. I feel the crux of this massive proposal is really the proposed deal with Arizona (trading Hughes for two young Dmen) and doing deals with Seattle/Ottawa to take a bunch of our dead cap so that we can sign some high end UFAs.

 

The Arizona deal is contentious. I kind of like the thought there. It will never happen, but I see where you are coming from.

 

The deals with SEA/OTT, I wonder if it could be simpler by just doing a straight deal with Seattle to take Loui + Gaudette + 1st in the expansion draft. Then trade Virtanen for a pick and buy out Hotlby. Achieves pretty much the same outcome but doesn't rely on two different deals and we don't lose Dipietro.

 

Selling a bunch of expiring contracts is exactly what JB will be trying to do now, so not exactly a new idea, and how many can be sold for how much by the TDL will depend on the needs of the buyer, not the needs of the seller. We might be able to trade a couple of guys.

 

Buying a large group of UFAs next season is exactly what JB is trying to avoid. It is very expensive and often doesn't work out how you expect (players don't have chemistry etc) - look at Schmidt this season and times that by 4 key new players to the Canucks.

 

My final thought is that the D roster looks very offensive but I really do not see many guys that are good in their own end apart from Juolevi. I think our D corps needs more balance.

Thanks for playing along Big Tram

Thanks for the support!

I am not too wrapped up on who plays with who, only that these are my guys

IMO, we have such good size and offensive defensemen, that we should be able to guard our net

I do agree, that we could use some more Defense

But I looked at Tryamkin, Myers, Schmidt, Hamilton, Chychrun, and Rathbone all being able to play decent Defense

as I stated in my proposal, when you look at the entirety of the Defensive grouping, there is no doubt you may have to tweak it 

Certainly there is room to move things around and acquire another large Defensive defensemen for one of Schmidt or Myers

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1 hour ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Want surefire proof that this is a weak draft?

It will be the year the Canucks draft 1st overall. 

It probably will be the year, heh! lol

Canuck luck!

Personally, I think the weakness in the draft is in the forward group

What I can remember of the draft reports of this years draft is them talking about a strong group of Dmen

To me it is about lack of exposure for many, so I am thinking that it still is a decent draft

Just that there might be more chance of missing on your individual pick

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58 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Hey Jan

 

So just going to look at this part, which I think is important to look at. And yes I'm gong to be a downer here.

 

This is maybe the hardest year in NHL history to move salary. So the 50% retention is likely a must. But thats only one part of these deals, there's the trade partners cap space and need. 

 

WPG - they don't really need Hamonic. 

 

MTL - they don't need Benn, they need offence.

 

TO - who are they going to send back to us to make those moves happen?  don't see anyone on an expiring deal who they could send to us.

 

EDM - Sutter to them makes a lot of sense, but they'd have to send us Chaisson, which I don't think they do. 

 

 

TBH I'd be surprised if we are able to make a single trade this TDL with any of these teams. Hope I'm wrong but it looks to me like theres just too many hurdles to overcome, unless one of these teams sustains an injury I just don't see how the math works. 

 

 

Of course this is a dream Jimmy, and my intention was to illustrate the possibilities and that improvement is possible

 

I was way more focused on clearing cap and signing good UFA's

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1 minute ago, janisahockeynut said:

Of course this is a dream Jimmy, and my intention was to illustrate the possibilities and that improvement is possible

 

I was way more focused on clearing cap and signing good UFA's

sorry didn't mean to be a pooper. Your thread just reminded me of how hard its gong to be to make deals this season.

 

I'm still looking at next year as having some great changes tho, as I don't believe we'll see Pearson, Edler or Sutter back, bye bye to Bear and Spooner too. 

 

So I'd be looking at what that cap freedom nets us, which I think you've nailed with the additions of Lowry and Nik. 

 

If Benning can manage even one of the trades you proposed I'd be very happy tho. 

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1 hour ago, Jack Fig said:

Janisa has been busy.

Some of that is plausible, some is not.

I would not trade Hughes, nor do I think he is or ever will be a true top-pairing Dman. But he is a rare and valuable specialist. The Canucks have scarcely ever had a PP QB of his ability. In a league where skating ability is paramount, letting him go is a huge mistake. The problem with Hughes is that the Canucks are going to have to pay him as a top-pairing Dman to keep him here long-term. Jim (or his replacement) need to plan for that.

The other noteworthy part is Tryamkin. He's not going to leave Russia to come here for $2.25M/year. I don't think you'd get him for double that amount. 

Thanks for the input Jack

I think you are right on Hughes, but I think it a little different than you (Obviously)

IMO, with the proposed line up

Chychrun, Hamilton, and Rathbone (projected) will all be able to carry the offensive load

I have always said that Canuck fans are foolish to get themselves married to certain players

Hughes is special, but he does not give you a complete game

I picture Hughes in the Stanley Cup finals against another very strong team

and giving away goal after goal when on the ice

Resulting in us loosing yet another Stanley Cup

He is a gem, but I think the haul (what ever that might be) could set us up nicely

He still has alot of time to prove me wrong, though

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Others have chimed in on your proposal so I'm not really gonna retread what they've said, I'll simply state that I think moving Hughes out would be a mistake. We've rarely had his breed of D come through this franchise, I think he's an essential part of driving this team's offense going forward. 

 

His defensive game is questionable at the NHL level, but at only 21 years old there's lots of room for improvement. Defense can be taught, he's got the intelligence to learn and the skating ability to be effective in his own end. Players with his offensive abilities are rarer than players who can simply play solid defense, I think he's worth being patient with. 

 

I'm not keen on throwing money at Hamilton, nor do I think we're likely to really be on his radar unless JB wants to throw massive term at him. I expect he'll stay in Carolina tbh, they're further along their competitive curve than we are at this point. Semin's dead cap expiring gives them enough to give him the raise he'll likely be asking for. And while I like Rathbone as a prospect, he's proven nothing at the NHL level and is just a prospect with potential at this point. 

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4 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

sorry didn't mean to be a pooper. Your thread just reminded me of how hard its gong to be to make deals this season.

 

I'm still looking at next year as having some great changes tho, as I don't believe we'll see Pearson, Edler or Sutter back, bye bye to Bear and Spooner too. 

 

So I'd be looking at what that cap freedom nets us, which I think you've nailed with the additions of Lowry and Nik. 

 

If Benning can manage even one of the trades you proposed I'd be very happy tho. 

It is funny.......but every time I see Hughes or Pettersson get knocked down, or out muscled, I just see huge flaws in their games, in "BIG" games, like Stanley Cup finals

Now, you can't go around moving everybody out, but Hughes is the obvious one for me............his net plus/minus is never going to be good.

I just look at defenses around the league who have big men in front of their net, and ineffective we are at breaking through their boxing out of us

I want some of that ourselves, and also want players who can break that box down, down in tight, where most goals are scored from.

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