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[proposal] Assessing the pros and cons of using Rathbone or a 1st as a sweetener to move Eriksson in the off season


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[proposal] Assessing the pros and cons of using Rathbone or a 1st as a sweetener to move Eriksson in the off season

 

Just for the record, I doubt that Benning will explore this option as he seems pretty committed to keeping his farm and prospect pool in tact (which is why I suspect he didn’t go this route this past summer and commit to Toffoli).  On the flip side, clearing Eriksson’s salary would allow the Canucks to not only comfortably re-sign Petey and Hughes, but would also give us the chance of going after another quality UFA.   
 

So, instead of waiting until the 2022-2023 season to be competitive, the Canucks could possibly open up their window a year earlier.   
 

While any five year old can tell you the dangers of moving 1st and/or prospects as sweeteners to get rid of bad contracts, the flip side of this is that there is also a danger in having your core miss the playoffs one too many times while keeping motivation levels high.  Horvat, Pettersson, and Hughes aren’t Boy Scouts, and the Canucks invested a lot of money in bringing in “now” players such as Miller, Myers, and Schmidt.   
 

So - is there a benefit in “biting the bullet” and using a significant sweetener to move Eriksson a year earlier? (If by doing so would allow us to re-sign Petey and Hughes while also bringing in a high quality UFA to help us make a push?)

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10 minutes ago, DarkIndianRises said:

[proposal] Assessing the pros and cons of using Rathbone or a 1st as a sweetener to move Eriksson in the off season

 

Just for the record, I doubt that Benning will explore this option as he seems pretty committed to keeping his farm and prospect pool in tact (which is why I suspect he didn’t go this route this past summer and commit to Toffoli).  On the flip side, clearing Eriksson’s salary would allow the Canucks to not only comfortably re-sign Petey and Hughes, but would also give us the chance of going after another quality UFA.   
 

So, instead of waiting until the 2022-2023 season to be competitive, the Canucks could possibly open up their window a year earlier.   
 

While any five year old can tell you the dangers of moving 1st and/or prospects as sweeteners to get rid of bad contracts, the flip side of this is that there is also a danger in having your core miss the playoffs one too many times while keeping motivation levels high.  Horvat, Pettersson, and Hughes aren’t Boy Scouts, and the Canucks invested a lot of money in bringing in “now” players such as Miller, Myers, and Schmidt.   
 

So - is there a benefit in “biting the bullet” and using a significant sweetener to move Eriksson a year earlier? (If by doing so would allow us to re-sign Petey and Hughes while also bringing in a high quality UFA to help us make a push?)

If the Canucks decide to go the route of buying cap space from another team, my guess is that they would be more willing to give up a pick than they are Rathbone, especially in this year's draft.  Rathbone is probably the most NHL ready of any of the Canucks' D prospects.  Any pick the Canucks make would probably be someone who is at least a couple years away (they're going to pick high this year but this year is also a total crapshoot since players have played so little).

 

I'm sure other teams would ask for someone like Rathbone as the cost of taking on Eriksson's salary, but that would be an exceptionally high ask.  I frankly don't think it would be worth it.  The most I think it would be worth for the Canucks to consider is if the cost is a 2021 2nd.

 

Buying out Eriksson will save $2M in cap this year and $5M next year.  Unless Eriksson retires (which would of course be amazing for the Canucks), I see that as the most likely scenario for him this offseason (unless pigs fly and the Kraken choose to take him in expansion).  Combined with Ferland most likely returning to LTIR and movement of some cap due to expansion (if it's Holtby, Virtanen or Roussel, then that's $2.55M to $4.3M in cap savings), I think the Canucks should be able to create the space to re-sign Pettersson and Hughes without needing to buy cap space at a high expense.  I would also much rather the Canucks not buy cap space and then use any additional cap space they have after signing Pettersson and Hughes to sign a FA to a bloated contract.

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IMO that would be a compounded mistake.  

 

We won't win the Stanley next year.  Why waste a good asset to get rid of Eriksson, for just one year.  Keep that money/space to sign someone in 2 years.  Also, if we are contenders in 2 years, you could use Rathbone and/or that 1st rounder to trade in the following offseason or deadline to add a Miller type player either at forward or on defense.

 

If someone wants Eriksson for a 2nd rounder or lower I'm good with that, but I wouldn't trade a 1st or a good prospect to get rid of him.  

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17 minutes ago, Curmudgeon said:

To begin with, Eriksson's agent publically acknowledged that Loui might well be bought out this summer. Problem solved with the liberal application of a large sum of money. So the question becomes, would you package Loui (whom the agent admitted that nobody wanted in a trade) and a young defenceman with offensive ability, size, fluid skating and apparent mature character just to get rid of a guy you could buy out? That would be a big, fat no.

There is no way that we buy LE out, it makes no sense.  We only save 2 million next year, but lose a million the year after.  If we bury him we save 1 mil next year, and have no cost the year after.  To me there is no upside in making that move---it ultimately only gets us 1 mill next year, but costs us the same the following year.

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Loui retires this summer. They're gonna tell Loui he's going to Utica and he'll face a choice... play out a year in Utica or call it a career after he cashes in his July 1st bonus. I think he'll mutually terminate his contract with the Canucks.

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43 minutes ago, DarkIndianRises said:

So, instead of waiting until the 2022-2023 season to be competitive, the Canucks could possibly open up their window a year earlier.   

I would rather wait and be patient, than rush it and screw it up.

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17 minutes ago, BCNate said:

There is no way that we buy LE out, it makes no sense.  We only save 2 million next year, but lose a million the year after.  If we bury him we save 1 mil next year, and have no cost the year after.  To me there is no upside in making that move---it ultimately only gets us 1 mill next year, but costs us the same the following year.

I hear you and you make a compelling argument about the dollar costs, but this isn't about getting rid of a player, it's about getting salary cap room. I could be wrong, but Loui's Cap hit will still be $6mil. If buried, the cap hit will still be at least $4.875mil even though he's only due to be paid a million. If I am wrong about this, I would be perfectly willing to be better informed, but moving Loui out would eliminate his salary from the cap, thereby giving Vancouver more room. As far as I can see, though, buying Loui out would cast $4mil against the 21-22 cap and $1mil in 22-23, as opposed to $6mil in 21-22 without a buyout. I believe Loui would still cost $4.875mil against the cap if he was buried in Utica.

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Maybe if Loui had 3-4 years left, but I'd rather keep Loui for the next season. Maybe they buy him out? Maybe he retires? Rathbone isn't going anywhere. I think there are a few untouchables on the team or in the system:

 

Pettersson

Hughes

Podkolzin

Demko

Rathbone

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We are in OK shape for cap next year in my mind.  We have 17 mil to sign 10 players, but also have up to 6.5 in LTIR $ (assuming the reports on Beagle are correct).  We also will lose some money in the expansion draft, I'm assuming Virtanen's 2.5.  That's 19.5, plus 6.5 LTIR for 11 guys now that Virtanen is gone.

-Lind, Podkolzin, Rathbone, Juolevi make the team taking up ~4.

-Hamonic and Eder are re signed for ~5

-I assume we bring back 2 of Boyd, Hawryluk, Vessey a ~2 mil total.

 

Miller-EP-Brick

Pearson-BO-Hoglander

Pods-XXX-XXX

Lind-XXX-Motte

Hawlyruk, Boyd, 

 

Schmidt-Edler

Hughes-Hamonic

Juolevi-Myers

Rathbone-Bowie

 

Demko

Holtby

 

8 Million to add 3 forwards and possibly upgrade your D is plenty, especially when you still have 6.5 in LTIR

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4 minutes ago, Curmudgeon said:

I hear you and you make a compelling argument about the dollar costs, but this isn't about getting rid of a player, it's about getting salary cap room. I could be wrong, but Loui's Cap hit will still be $6mil. If buried, the cap hit will still be at least $4.875mil even though he's only due to be paid a million. If I am wrong about this, I would be perfectly willing to be better informed, but moving Loui out would eliminate his salary from the cap, thereby giving Vancouver more room..

You are correct on the AH part, but not the buyout. By burying him, you save a little over a million, bit then you are clear of his deal.  If you buy him out, you save 2 million  next year--he still counts 4 against the cap, but wear 1 million in cap the following year as well.  I'd rather take the hit next year and be done.

 

Here is the link for this:

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/loui-eriksson#results

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2 minutes ago, BCNate said:

You are correct on the AH part, but not the buyout. By burying him, you save a little over a million, bit then you are clear of his deal.  If you buy him out, you save 2 million  next year--he still counts 4 against the cap, but wear 1 million in cap the following year as well.  I'd rather take the hit next year and be done.

 

Here is the link for this:

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/loui-eriksson#results

Thanks for the clarification. All very technical and confusing to be sure. But what happens to Loui's cap hit if he is not bought out and a) he is buried in Utica ($4.875mil?), or, b) he remains on the Vancouver roster ($6mil?)? Clarity would be welcomed.

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14 minutes ago, BCNate said:

We are in OK shape for cap next year in my mind.  We have 17 mil to sign 10 players, but also have up to 6.5 in LTIR $ (assuming the reports on Beagle are correct).  We also will lose some money in the expansion draft, I'm assuming Virtanen's 2.5.  That's 19.5, plus 6.5 LTIR for 11 guys now that Virtanen is gone.

-Lind, Podkolzin, Rathbone, Juolevi make the team taking up ~4.

-Hamonic and Eder are re signed for ~5

-I assume we bring back 2 of Boyd, Hawryluk, Vessey a ~2 mil total.

 

Miller-EP-Brick

Pearson-BO-Hoglander

Pods-XXX-XXX

Lind-XXX-Motte

Hawlyruk, Boyd, 

 

Schmidt-Edler

Hughes-Hamonic

Juolevi-Myers

Rathbone-Bowie

 

Demko

Holtby

 

8 Million to add 3 forwards and possibly upgrade your D is plenty, especially when you still have 6.5 in LTIR

Highmore probably slots in too for 750K. Definitely no need to bleed assets for cap space. 

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We're not playoff locks, let alone contenders, so we shouldn't be paying assets to dump cap to make contender moves. 

 

Just buy Loui out and ride out the residual cap hit for a little while. I think it's unlikely we'll draft as high as we should this season for a while, we should be better next season and the season after. Better off capitalizing on what'll probably be a high pick and grab a blue chip prospect. Retaining a cost controlled D with legit promise in Rathbone is a no brainer, we don't exactly have a bunch of high end D prospects in the pipeline right now. 

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20 minutes ago, Curmudgeon said:

Thanks for the clarification. All very technical and confusing to be sure. But what happens to Loui's cap hit if he is not bought out and a) he is buried in Utica ($4.875mil?), or, b) he remains on the Vancouver roster ($6mil?)? Clarity would be welcomed.

I don’t know the answer to that but buying him out does free up a contract slot which in itself has some value.

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9 minutes ago, Curmudgeon said:

Thanks for the clarification. All very technical and confusing to be sure. But what happens to Loui's cap hit if he is not bought out and a) he is buried in Utica ($4.875mil?), or, b) he remains on the Vancouver roster ($6mil?)? Clarity would be welcomed.

Correct.  Other options would be

-Buyout- Costs 4 mill next year, 1 the next

-Retire/mutual termination- 0 cost

-Trade him with or without some retention.  I feel this is the route we go Trade him and a pick (3rd or later) or B prospect for a more serviceable expiring bad deal.  Something like LE and a 4th to FLA for Stralman.  We save .5 mil in cap, get a RD, FLA loses a guy they waived, picks up a pick for .5 million in cap space and save 3.5 in real money as LE is only owed 1 mill vs Stralman's 4.5.

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