Expansion draft: A golden opportunity for the Canucks

[Rudo]

The most important factor in a successful trade is to be able to take advantage of a desperate team and to be able to negotiate in a position of power.  We saw it last summer with Vegas when they were trying to sign Pietrangelo.  They desperately needed to shed some salary and as such, Canucks were able to swoop in and get Schmidt at a much lower value that his actual worth.  Now, obviously the trade didn't turn out to be a great one because Schmidt struggled this year but on paper, this was still a good trade because Canucks didn't pay much to get him and it had potential to be a steal.

 

A lot of teams will be in a desparate situation with the expansion draft this summer.  Especially when it comes to defensemen.  A lot of teams would ideally want to protect 4 or 5 d-men but they'll only be able to protect 3.  Obviously these teams don't want to lose a good defensemen for nothing. However, on the trade market, they can't exactly get fair value for them since all teams are in the same boat. They all need to protect their own defensemen so they can't exactly go and and trade for an extra one.  This is where the Canucks have a huge advantage over other teams.  They don't really have that many d-men to protect in the draft.  Hugues amd Rathbone don't need to be protected, Edler and Hamonic are UFAs so that leaves you with Myers, Schmidt and Juolevi as your 3 protected d-men.  You could easily go and get a better d-men than those 3 on the market and protect that d-men instead.  This is where the Canucks need to take advantage of this opportunity and retool their defense on the cheap by raiding teams who are desperate to get "something" in return instead of "nothing".

 

I've looked at every team in the league and who they could potentially protect in the draft and here are some defensemen that I believe might be left exposed.

 

Devon Toews : 4.1m
Ryan Graves: 3.16m
Vince Dunn: 1.875m
Erik Cernak: 2.95m
Ben Chiarot: 3.5m
Matt Dumba: 6m
Carson Soucy: 2.7m

 

There might be more cheaper options too like Travis Dermott, Jeremy Lauzon, Oliver Killington, Haydn Fleury, etc, but I can't list them all.

 

In my opinion, the players in the list above are players that I think Canucks could target.  The possibility of being able to get a left D like Graves and right D like Cernak would certainly help the Canucks quite a bit if Benning is able to get them cheap.  And honestly, who would you rather have on the team, a Ryan Graves or a Olli Juolevi.  I would protect Graves and leave Juolevi exposed any day of the week.  And actually Juolevi could end up being a part of a return in such a trade along with a draft pick. The other team might feel like Juolevi has a lot more chance to NOT get claimed if left exposed.  As such, instead of Colorado losing Graves for nothing, they at least get Juolevi and a draft pick for him and are possibly able to retain Juolevi since Seattle would most likely not pick him.

 

You could get a similar deal done for Cernak too.  Tampa are in deep cap trouble and they need to protect Hedman, McDonaugh and Sergachev.  As such, Cernak is a logical sacrificial lamb that Cannucks could obtain relatively cheap in a trade.

 

If Canucks think these players are too expensive, they can also go with a cheaper option like Vince Dunn.

 

After these trades, Canucks could then protect guys like Graves and Cernak and then chose one of Myers or Schmidt to protect.  If Seattle decides to pick one of them, Canucks get rid of a big contract and they can use that freed money to help sign Hughes, Pettersson or sign a good forward on free agency.  If Seattle ignores the big contracts, then you're left with the following defensive squad:

 

Hugues - Hamonic (signed for cheap since he wants to stay in Canada on the west coast)
Graves - Myers
Schmidt - Cernak
Rathbone

 

Not a bad defensemen corp at all.  And if you need to make some room on the cap space because you're missing money for Hugues and Petterson, you can easily trade a d-men to teams who have lost a d-men to Seattle in the expansion draft once the draft is done and the teams are free to go and trade for d-men again.

 

Another option I was thinking of but am not entirely sure about is the following trade:

 

Dumba VS Myers and a draft pick.

 

Dumba and Myers are both right defensemen who have identical cap value (6 million) and they also happen to have the exact same stats of 6 goals and 21 points last season. The season before that? 21 and 24 respectively. If the Wild leave Dumba exposed to the expansion draft they are almost assured of losing him and they would get "nothing" in return.  The advantage of the Myers trade for them is that they get a draft pick and they have a better chance of Myers not getting picked by Seattle who may instead go with a guy like Carson Soucy.

As for the Canucks, they get a chance to hopefully restart Dumba's career while he is in the prime age and not stuck behind Jared Spurgeon.  With the Canucks, Dumba would have more of a chance to shine since he would essentially be their no.1 right D.  It just might be worth the risk.

 

Obviously I've listed a lot of options here and I'm not saying Canucks should do ALL of them. These were just examples.  They might only make one move or 2, but in my opinion, this is an opportunity that Canucks need to take advantage of.

 

 What do you think of my various propositions? Which move would YOU make?  Who would you target?

 

[Elias Pettersson]

I don't think Tampa will protect McDonaugh over Cernak...

[aGENT]

This has been discussed for months. I agree that Cernak (or Foote because they likely protect Cernak) should be a primary target.

 

We already have both Hughes and Rathbone though. We have zero need for Dumba.

Edited May 24, 2021 by aGENT

[stawns]

25 minutes ago, Rudo said:

The most important factor in a successful trade is to be able to take advantage of a desperate team and to be able to negotiate in a position of power.  We saw it last summer with Vegas when they were trying to sign Pietrangelo.  They desperately needed to shed some salary and as such, Canucks were able to swoop in and get Schmidt at a much lower value that his actual worth.  Now, obviously the trade didn't turn out to be a great one because Schmidt struggled this year but on paper, this was still a good trade because Canucks didn't pay much to get him and it had potential to be a steal.

 

A lot of teams will be in a desparate situation with the expansion draft this summer.  Especially when it comes to defensemen.  A lot of teams would ideally want to protect 4 or 5 d-men but they'll only be able to protect 3.  Obviously these teams don't want to lose a good defensemen for nothing. However, on the trade market, they can't exactly get fair value for them since all teams are in the same boat. They all need to protect their own defensemen so they can't exactly go and and trade for an extra one.  This is where the Canucks have a huge advantage over other teams.  They don't really have that many d-men to protect in the draft.  Hugues amd Rathbone don't need to be protected, Edler and Hamonic are UFAs so that leaves you with Myers, Schmidt and Juolevi as your 3 protected d-men.  You could easily go and get a better d-men than those 3 on the market and protect that d-men instead.  This is where the Canucks need to take advantage of this opportunity and retool their defense on the cheap by raiding teams who are desperate to get "something" in return instead of "nothing".

 

I've looked at every team in the league and who they could potentially protect in the draft and here are some defensemen that I believe might be left exposed.

 

Devon Toews : 4.1m
Ryan Graves: 3.16m
Vince Dunn: 1.875m
Erik Cernak: 2.95m
Ben Chiarot: 3.5m
Matt Dumba: 6m
Carson Soucy: 2.7m

 

There might be more cheaper options too like Travis Dermott, Jeremy Lauzon, Oliver Killington, Haydn Fleury, etc, but I can't list them all.

 

In my opinion, the players in the list above are players that I think Canucks could target.  The possibility of being able to get a left D like Graves and right D like Cernak would certainly help the Canucks quite a bit if Benning is able to get them cheap.  And honestly, who would you rather have on the team, a Ryan Graves or a Olli Juolevi.  I would protect Graves and leave Juolevi exposed any day of the week.  And actually Juolevi could end up being a part of a return in such a trade along with a draft pick. The other team might feel like Juolevi has a lot more chance to NOT get claimed if left exposed.  As such, instead of Colorado losing Graves for nothing, they at least get Juolevi and a draft pick for him and are possibly able to retain Juolevi since Seattle would most likely not pick him.

 

You could get a similar deal done for Cernak too.  Tampa are in deep cap trouble and they need to protect Hedman, McDonaugh and Sergachev.  As such, Cernak is a logical sacrificial lamb that Cannucks could obtain relatively cheap in a trade.

 

If Canucks think these players are too expensive, they can also go with a cheaper option like Vince Dunn.

 

After these trades, Canucks could then protect guys like Graves and Cernak and then chose one of Myers or Schmidt to protect.  If Seattle decides to pick one of them, Canucks get rid of a big contract and they can use that freed money to help sign Hughes, Pettersson or sign a good forward on free agency.  If Seattle ignores the big contracts, then you're left with the following defensive squad:

 

Hugues - Hamonic (signed for cheap since he wants to stay in Canada on the west coast)
Graves - Myers
Schmidt - Cernak
Rathbone

 

Not a bad defensemen corp at all.  And if you need to make some room on the cap space because you're missing money for Hugues and Petterson, you can easily trade a d-men to teams who have lost a d-men to Seattle in the expansion draft once the draft is done and the teams are free to go and trade for d-men again.

 

Another option I was thinking of but am not entirely sure about is the following trade:

 

Dumba VS Myers and a draft pick.

 

Dumba and Myers are both right defensemen who have identical cap value (6 million) and they also happen to have the exact same stats of 6 goals and 21 points last season. The season before that? 21 and 24 respectively. If the Wild leave Dumba exposed to the expansion draft they are almost assured of losing him and they would get "nothing" in return.  The advantage of the Myers trade for them is that they get a draft pick and they have a better chance of Myers not getting picked by Seattle who may instead go with a guy like Carson Soucy.

As for the Canucks, they get a chance to hopefully restart Dumba's career while he is in the prime age and not stuck behind Jared Spurgeon.  With the Canucks, Dumba would have more of a chance to shine since he would essentially be their no.1 right D.  It just might be worth the risk.

 

Obviously I've listed a lot of options here and I'm not saying Canucks should do ALL of them. These were just examples.  They might only make one move or 2, but in my opinion, this is an opportunity that Canucks need to take advantage of.

 

 What do you think of my various propositions? Which move would YOU make?  Who would you target?

 

None of those guys are as good as Meyers

[NewbieCanuckFan]

12 minutes ago, stawns said:

None of those guys are as good as Meyers

Maybe Oscar Meyer.

[CoquitlamDave]

Yes a good GM will put out some feelers on all these options.  There are few teams looking to do this too (Sens, Ducks) so it wont be easy.  I would pass on Dumba unless we got some of those other tougher D man to compliment our new young group

 

[mll]

Every team is set to lose a player through expansion.  Why would they trade one on the cheap and then lose another.  It puts them down 2 Ds rather than just one. 

 

If the Wild trade say Soucy on the cheap and Seattle then picks Dumba, it puts them in a worse situation for next season than if they only lose one in expansion.   The Wild have been looking for a top-6 C in return for Dumba last off-season.  They would swap for that key piece but it’s not a cheap trade.   If it’s just to get a mid round pick or middling prospect doubt they make a move before expansion.

 

Colorado is apparently confident that Johnson will waive.  They have apparently not started extension discussions with Landeskog who is UFA.  They should be able to go 4 + 4.  Graves, Toews, Girard, Makar with Timmins and Byram exempt.  Up front MacKinnon and Rantanen with 2 more spots.  Their Ds look to be more worthy of protection than the Fs past those 2.

 

Tampa is expected by most insiders to make a deal with Seattle and agree who they should pick.  They have to shed cap space and Seattle is one of the few teams that have ample room.  Even if they don’t make a deal they can protect their core and hope Seattle picks up a large contract without them having to pay for it.  

 

They can protect Hedman, Cernak, Sergachev and even Foote + Stamkos, Kucherov, Cirelli and Point.  It leaves Palat, Johnson, Killorn and McDonagh exposed.  If Seattle takes one it helps their cap.  They will in any case have to shed at least 2 of those contracts in the off-season.  Making a deal with Seattle could be the most convenient.  Tampa’s window is now so picks and even prospects have less value to them - they’ve even been giving up high picks to get Goodrow, Coleman.

 

Last time around Mueller and Beaulieu were the only Ds traded ahead of expansion as they were no longer in their teams plans. 

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by mll

[BigTramFan]

19 minutes ago, mll said:

Every team is set to lose a player through expansion.  Why would they trade one on the cheap and then lose another.  It puts them down 2 Ds rather than just one. 

 

If the Wild trade say Soucy on the cheap and Seattle then picks Dumba, it puts them in a worse situation for next season then if they only lose one in expansion.   The Wild have been looking for a top-6 C in return for Dumba last off-season.  They would swap for that key piece but it’s not a cheap trade.   If it’s just to get a mid round pick or middling prospect doubt they make a move before expansion.

 

Colorado is apparently confident that Johnson will waive.  They have apparently not started extension discussions with Landeskog who is UFA.  They should be able to go 4 + 4.  Graves, Toews, Girard, Makar with Timmins and Byram exempt.  Up front MacKinnon and Rantanen with 2 more spots.  Their Ds look to be more worthy of protection than the Fs past those 2.

 

Tampa is expected by most insiders to make a deal with Seattle and agree who they should pick.  They have to shed cap space and Seattle is one of the few teams that have ample room.  Even if they don’t make a deal they can protect their core and hope Seattle picks up a large contract without them having to pay for it.  

 

They can protect Hedman, Cernak, Sergachev and even Foote + Stamkos, Kucherov, Cirelli and Point.  It leaves Palat, Johnson, Killorn and McDonagh exposed.  If Seattle takes one it helps their cap.  They will in any case have to shed at least 2 of those contracts in the off-season.  Making a deal with Seattle could be the most convenient.  Tampa’s window is now so picks and even prospects have less value to them - they’ve even been giving up high picks to get Goodrow, Coleman.

 

Last time around Mueller and Beaulieu were the only Ds traded ahead of expansion as they were no longer in their teams plans. 

 

Very good post. Clear explanations about why teams will not be trading players that they "otherwise will lose for nothing" to VAN. All posters that keep mentioning that JB should be looking to get Dmen for cheap via this route need to read this^

[Devron]

mll knows stuff. A lot of it. Anyone ever has a hockey question that’s the guy 

[CanucksJay]

1 hour ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Maybe Oscar Meyer.

That dude is a weiner

[AV's Coin]

35 minutes ago, mll said:

Every team is set to lose a player through expansion.  Why would they trade one on the cheap and then lose another.  It puts them down 2 Ds rather than just one. 

 

 

 

my thoughts exactly but you were able to communicate them better. I dont know how much opportunity really exists.

 

Also the other team has an option to make a deal with Seattle so they end up losing one lesser player and some picks rather than losing two players and gaining some picks/players but at some kind of discount. I guess it depends on what phase the team is in.

Edited May 24, 2021 by AV's Coin

[aGENT]

32 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

Very good post. Clear explanations about why teams will not be trading players that they "otherwise will lose for nothing" to VAN. All posters that keep mentioning that JB should be looking to get Dmen for cheap via this route need to read this^

It's something Benning should certainly be (and will be) kicking tires on. But no, it is not the 'guaranteed win' some people seem to think it is.

[highwayman3]

I think this is a nice concept in a vacuum.  Unfortunately we will up against the cap and I suspect any small openings (ie terminating Virtanen's contract) will be spent on more 29+ year old vets who are great in the room, family men, culture carriers, etc.  Sutter will most likely be re-signed (3.75 x 3 years) and consequently here is no room for the sort moneyball players and/or strategy you make a good argument for.  

[DefCon1]

6 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I don't think Tampa will protect McDonaugh over Cernak...

hoe about we sign McDonaugh thrn, instead of Edler?

[Nuxfanabroad]

We must reacquire Sbisa, & then EXPOSE him, eh? They claimed him before, right?!

 

Would actually be rather amusing if a team lost the same player in both ED's.

 

Not too worried on this one. Bettman & the tyrannical-BOG, prob insist GM's don't make these trades of efficiency. They don't want Seattle whining after wasting 650,000,000 $macker$ on a rigged-deck league slot.

[Elias Pettersson]

6 hours ago, mll said:

Every team is set to lose a player through expansion.  Why would they trade one on the cheap and then lose another.  It puts them down 2 Ds rather than just one. 

 

If the Wild trade say Soucy on the cheap and Seattle then picks Dumba, it puts them in a worse situation for next season than if they only lose one in expansion.   The Wild have been looking for a top-6 C in return for Dumba last off-season.  They would swap for that key piece but it’s not a cheap trade.   If it’s just to get a mid round pick or middling prospect doubt they make a move before expansion.

 

Colorado is apparently confident that Johnson will waive.  They have apparently not started extension discussions with Landeskog who is UFA.  They should be able to go 4 + 4.  Graves, Toews, Girard, Makar with Timmins and Byram exempt.  Up front MacKinnon and Rantanen with 2 more spots.  Their Ds look to be more worthy of protection than the Fs past those 2.

 

Tampa is expected by most insiders to make a deal with Seattle and agree who they should pick.  They have to shed cap space and Seattle is one of the few teams that have ample room.  Even if they don’t make a deal they can protect their core and hope Seattle picks up a large contract without them having to pay for it.  

 

They can protect Hedman, Cernak, Sergachev and even Foote + Stamkos, Kucherov, Cirelli and Point.  It leaves Palat, Johnson, Killorn and McDonagh exposed.  If Seattle takes one it helps their cap.  They will in any case have to shed at least 2 of those contracts in the off-season.  Making a deal with Seattle could be the most convenient.  Tampa’s window is now so picks and even prospects have less value to them - they’ve even been giving up high picks to get Goodrow, Coleman.

 

Last time around Mueller and Beaulieu were the only Ds traded ahead of expansion as they were no longer in their teams plans. 

 

Great post.  I think Tampa makes a deal with Seattle to take McDonaugh.  Add some draft picks or prospects.  If that happens they can just buy out Palat and their cap problems are solved.  They are not going to trade Cernak or Foote.  They will just trade futures for cap space and use their buyouts for 2021.  In 2020 they used LTIR space to keep the core together, in 2021 they will use the expansion draft and buyouts to keep the core together.  Smart moves all the way around that are totally legal.

[IBatch]

Francis had made it clear he will be leaving ample cap space.    The purpose of course is to weaponize some after, and they most likely will end up with an 2-3 extra D's for trade purposes.   

 

TB will likely be protecting 4 D's.   They have a laundry list of forwards they will expose and only stand to lose one, Palat is the player most feel they will take.   Cernak won't be available as others have stated.    

 

The extra cap space ... 66.4 is what one Kraken blogger team came up with and the team on paper, hate to say it, looks better then the one Vegas started out with.    30 other teams will be vying for those 2-3 D's and a dozen or so teams the cap space.    Given we are in their own division and the closest team to them does anyone really think JB or anyone is going to "take advantage " of the situation?    I doubt it.   JV was the consensus pick - not anymore.   Now it's Gads.    No cap relief coming for us there without giving something up, and seems unlikely they'd pick Vancouver as a team they'd bother doing that with. 

[smithers joe]

9 hours ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Maybe Oscar Meyer.

you weinie....

[yes we can nucks]

10 hours ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Maybe Oscar Meyer.

I hated when we lost Oscar Fantenberg cuz we didn't have the Oscar Myers pairing to roast anymore. 

[Rudo]

9 hours ago, mll said:

Every team is set to lose a player through expansion.  Why would they trade one on the cheap and then lose another.  It puts them down 2 Ds rather than just one. 

 

If the Wild trade say Soucy on the cheap and Seattle then picks Dumba, it puts them in a worse situation for next season than if they only lose one in expansion.   The Wild have been looking for a top-6 C in return for Dumba last off-season.  They would swap for that key piece but it’s not a cheap trade.   If it’s just to get a mid round pick or middling prospect doubt they make a move before expansion.

 

Colorado is apparently confident that Johnson will waive.  They have apparently not started extension discussions with Landeskog who is UFA.  They should be able to go 4 + 4.  Graves, Toews, Girard, Makar with Timmins and Byram exempt.  Up front MacKinnon and Rantanen with 2 more spots.  Their Ds look to be more worthy of protection than the Fs past those 2.

 

Tampa is expected by most insiders to make a deal with Seattle and agree who they should pick.  They have to shed cap space and Seattle is one of the few teams that have ample room.  Even if they don’t make a deal they can protect their core and hope Seattle picks up a large contract without them having to pay for it.  

 

They can protect Hedman, Cernak, Sergachev and even Foote + Stamkos, Kucherov, Cirelli and Point.  It leaves Palat, Johnson, Killorn and McDonagh exposed.  If Seattle takes one it helps their cap.  They will in any case have to shed at least 2 of those contracts in the off-season.  Making a deal with Seattle could be the most convenient.  Tampa’s window is now so picks and even prospects have less value to them - they’ve even been giving up high picks to get Goodrow, Coleman.

 

Last time around Mueller and Beaulieu were the only Ds traded ahead of expansion as they were no longer in their teams plans. 

 

Great post mll with a lot of good arguments.

 

I'd just like to point out a few things regarding some of the things I mentionned.  Obviously, I'm aware that some of the situations I mentioned are hypothetical and are nowhere near an easy thing to do. My point was simply to say that it's an avenue that in my opinion is worth exploring much more than the avenue of free agency where Benning is clearly not good at and always overpays.  It is true that the Canucks do have the ability to take on a d-men by trade because they have the space to protect them in the draft which isn't the case for most teams and I think it's possible that a team might want to make a deal.  Yeah, a few teams like Detroit and Ottawa have the same opportunity but most teams are already full of d-men to protect.

 

When you say "why would a team trade on a cheap and then lose another, it puts them down 2 Ds rather than just one."  I definitely agree with you there, but keep in mind that in 2 of the examples I gave, the other team was receiving a defensemen back in the trade.  As such, they'd still only be down 1D and not 2 and would be compensated by a draft pick on top of it.

 

I'll use the Dumba trade here just as an example.  But also keep in mind that I mentionned in my original post that I wasn't really sure about that trade and I was using it only as "an example" of the type of move you can explore, not necessarily that I want that EXACT trade.  But just for the sake of argument, I'll use it just to illustrate my point.

 

If the Wild don't make a deal, they end up losing Dumba and get nothing in return.  In the scenario I mentionned, the Wild do end up losing 2 Ds (Dumba and Soucy) but they get Myers and a draft pick in exchange so they don't exactly lose "2 Ds", they only lose 1 and they get a draft pick to compensate (which they wouldn't get if they lose Dumba in the draft).  I'm not saying it's a perfect situation and I'm not saying I'm advocating this move (I'm not even sure I would do that move if I'm the Canucks OR the Wild), my point is only to say that it's an "option" and that there are possibilities of trying to find ways to mitigate losses on the side of the team losing the dmen and an advantage to gain on the side of the team trading for that dmen (Canucks).

 

But yeah, I definitely agree with you about the situations in Colorado and Tampa.  You make a lot of valid points regarding their options to retain those players.  In my scenarios, I was going under the assumption that Johnson would not want to waive his NTC.  I know that Lucic mentioned that he would in order to help his team but since I hadn't heard anything of the sort regarding Johnson, I was going with the scenario where Colorado would have to protect him.  In my hypothetical situation, they would protect 4 dmen so that would leave either Graves or Toews exposed (and I'm assuming they'd protect Toews since Graves numbers have dipped this year compared to last year).  And with only 4 fowards protected, the chances are high that Seattle would pick a forward from them which would mean that they could retain Juolevi which they would have obtained as one of the piece in the trade.  As such, Colorado don't lose a D, they just lose in terms of quality on the back end and take a chance that Juolevi could develop better on their team than with the Canucks and they also probably get another piece in the trade (draft pick or something else).  Now obviously this entire scenario is completely worthless if Johnson waives his NTC, that I completely agree with you.  My argument only holds water if Colorado can't protect Graves.

 

But anyway, as mentioned there are other possible scenarios to explore for the Canucks other than the hypothetical ones I mentionned such as Vince Dunn which the Blues seem fine with losing given that they already have a pretty full defensemen lineup.  My argument is simply that Benning needs to explore all those options because he's in a better position to negotiate with this expansion draft scenario than with the UFA scenario (which he is pretty bad at).

 

So yeah, a lot of good arguments from some of you guys and an expecially strong case from you Mll. Good discussion!