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Canucks vs the League. Where do we fit?

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1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Covering all the bases.  Don't really see what your getting at though.   OP has a very good point.  

not sure you read the post as intended.  In no way do I suggest he doesn't have a good point

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52 minutes ago, BCNate said:

Normal schedule and divisions next year?  I feel we are a playoff team.  People underestimate how big an impact the condensed start and end of the year impacted this team.  We were right about .500 after a ridiculous first 16 game schedule to start.  

 

I assume this had to be nearly the worst bottom 6 production the Canucks have ever seen.  That should be a reasonably easy fix. 

 

I think we need a big, physical stay at home D, preferably RHS.  This will be tougher, but still not unreasonable to expect we can fill that hole.  

 

One way or another we will have a better backup.  Whether it be Holtby pulling his head out of his ass, DiPietro or someone else, our backup will be better than a 3.7GAA and .890 SV%.

 

The Pacific next year might be historically bad, we will certainly benefit from that.  I'm willing to look at this season as a blip in what has been some positive progression over the past few years.  

The canadian division this year was pretty weak overall though and that didnt help the Canucks. Hard to say how bad their division will be next year and whether that helps the Canucks. Whether this season was a blip or not remains to be seen.

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Just now, wallstreetamigo said:

The canadian division this year was pretty weak overall though and that didnt help the Canucks. Hard to say how bad their division will be next year and whether that helps the Canucks. Whether this season was a blip or not remains to be seen.

We will be replacing Toronto, Winnipeg, Montreal and Ottawa with Vegas, Seattle, LA, SJ and Anaheim.  I'll take that swap any day of the week.

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4 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Asking someone where they got their stats isnt showing any intent. I didnt question anything about them when i asked. Just where they came from. I got called out for asking an honest question. How you justify that is irrelevant really. 

 

I dont care if you jump to conclusions about me or not. I didnt invalidate anything he posted.

 

To me, jumping on someone with that level of assumption is more negative than anything I have posted here.

 

You and deb both are the ones who invalidated me for a reasonable question with nothing but your bias against me as reasoning.

 

So both of you can &^@# off as far as I am concerned.

Ok.  Well no harm done.   One of us is actually acting like a fan of this club.  The other one is having a hissy fit for getting called out for a the vitriol the rest of us has had to put up with the last couple of months with your incessant whining.   We all get it.  You don't like JB, the schedule is his fault, the roster is his fault and like you've tried to illustrate too, Covid is also his fault.   Just be happy you can say that behind a keyboard and not out in public.   

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Posted (edited)

At the end of the day, in the salary cap era, you simply can't compete when ~20% of your cap is dead weight (Luongo at $3m, Spooner $1m, Baertschi $2m, Eriksson buried is $5m). For context, Crosby or Malkin or Ovechkin could be directly added to the team with the same cap that is sitting off the ice for the Canucks. As soon as the league applied the Luongo recapture penalty, there was no point even following the team until it came off the books. The league is set up for maximum parity though the cap, so even modest cap penalties place you way behind the league average in terms of performance. Add in the usual contract mistakes that every team has and the Canucks are severely crippled until after next season. This isn't even to mention the lingering effects of this will be, since we could easily have retained Toffoli with the cap that is killed by the Luongo penalty, but instead the team lost a valuable asset for nothing.

 

Ultimately, the league influences which teams are successful. Until the trend of disadvantaging the Canucks ends, they won't be successful. They've never won a "lottery", they routinely get the worst scheduling, cap penalties are applied with force while NJ gets a wrist tap for Kovalchuk's 15 year contract termination, suspensions are inflated for the Canucks while lessened for teams like the Kings (see Kerry Fraser's column where he stated he believes the league took the King's standing into account when not suspending Toffoli for his hit on Burrows a few years back), and then throw in the fact that local taxes mean players earn less money for the same cap hit here than in other locations (which is absolutely a factor for players when taxes here versus Texas can mean the difference of $1m for every $5m salary) and it's just a recipe for perpetual disappointment.

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On 5/26/2021 at 9:28 PM, knucklehead91 said:

I want to start off by saying that I have done a bunch of research on all teams in the league and want to talk about Canucks and COVID, how hard it hit us and where we sit as a threat in the league.

Was this season a result of where the Canucks actually are as a team, or was our poor record attributed to COVID? And just how hard did COVID hit the Canucks organization?

We have the fans who believe the Canucks have met reality this season and there are no excuses or reasons as to why this team underachieved and we have the other fans who believe in this team and believe we are better than what the standings showed at the end of the year. This is to the fans who believe the Canucks are what they are and don't believe that COVID or the scheduling was a valid reason as to why we fell so far from grace after an inspiring playoff run and are too blind or ignorant to see what is to come next season.

So first off, hats off to you OP for doing the season schedule analysis. It's pretty rare to see this kind of schedule analytics even in the sports media, so if you brute forced the data for the season schedule that's pretty damn impressive. I'm not sure why PP and PK are separate columns though, unless you were looking to see differential. A more interesting experiment would be to see how PP/PK changes throughout the season, because yes, I agree with your point that we took more penalties in the second half because we were too tired.

 

I have not met a single fan that didn't claim Covid and Scheduling didn't play a part in this. So perhaps this is not directed at me :p

 

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Yes all 31 teams started the season off without a proper training camp, limited practice time, no pre-season games to get teams up to speed and every team endured their fair share of back to back games and condensed scheduling, but every team also had a lighter portion in their schedule in the season, be it in the first half or the last half of the season where teams would finally get some r&r. There were a few teams that did endure some extended time off due to COVID protocol or a few players being affected by the virus and games were cancelled and moved to a later date. Dallas and a lot of the Sunshine state teams like Florida and Tampa stared their seasons late. Vancouver was one of the first teams to kick the season off and they were ultimately the last team along with Calgary to end the season. I'm fed up with the lack of support for this team and what they went through this season and how fingers are being pointed in each and every direction as to why this team was well out of playoff contention. 

Our schedule was loaded up heavily at the start and was supposed to get much lighter the later the season went. Prior to COVID shutting the Canucks down, we had played 37 games in 70 days. The original scheduling after March 24th had Vancouver finishing off the last 19 games in 45 days. This is where we were supposed to catch our breath, get more practice time and just recover from the gruelling start to the season. Unfortunately for Vancouver, we made it through the hardest part of our season, only to get decimated by COVID and then finish the season with 19 games in 30 days instead of 19 games in 45 days. With COVID players were sick, unable to practice and stay in game shape. We were put on ice for nearly a month.  This was not a break the team wanted or needed, this was the worst thing that happened all season outside of missing Pettersson. JT Miller made it very clear to the league that the team was not at all ready to return to action, they gave them a measly couple days extra to get back into midseason form. Roussel also voiced his opinion during the season when it came to the scheduling and how Montreal had 3 breaks that were 4+ days each along with Toronto who had a 5 day break and were rested and ready for us the first time around.

 

I have done some serious digging and comparing around the entire league for each and every single team and this is ultimately gives me the assurance that this team is better than where they finished and are going to be a much better team next season, even if there are no roster changes. I believe in this group and I can say with confidence that this season is not a season to judge success or failure. This was not a fair season, every team gets hit with injuries which is an obstacle that you expect each season. But to have injuries, COVID AND brutal scheduling DUE TO COVID, its not a great eye test.

 

Below is going to be each and every single teams schedule broken down up to the day the Canucks were shut down.

Use this legend to understand what  the headings at the top mean

GPF15 = Games played in the first 15 days of the season opener

GPF30 = Games played in the first 30 days of the season opener

D70GP = Day 70 games played when Canucks played their last game prior to shut down

B2B15 = Back to back games played in the first 15 days of the season opener

B2B30 = Back to back games played in the first 30 days of the season opener

B2B70 = Back to back games played 70 days into the season when the Canucks were shut down

R70(2-3) = 2-3 days of scheduled rest in the first 70 days When Canucks were shut down

R70(4+) = 4+ days of scheduled rest or short term COVID lock down up to the 70 day mark where the Canucks were shut down

B2B = Season total back to back games

PP = self explanatory

PK = self explanatory

Teams will be kept in their divisions to keep the scheduling comparisons fair and accurate to the teams they are lumped with. 

 

 

TEAM GPF15 B2B15 GPF30 B2B30 D70GP B2B70 R70(2-3) R70(4+) B2B PP PK
COL 8 1 11 2 33 5 0 3 10 207 177
VGK 7 0 12 0 30 4 1 3 9 174 144
MIN 8 0 11 1 31 4 0 1 11 165 161
STL 7 1 15 2 35 6 5 4 11 155 171
ARZ 8 1 14 2 33 5 2 2 9 178 167
LAK 8 1 13 1 32 4 3 3 9 169 159
SJS 8 0 13 1 31 4 1 3 10 156 184
ANA 8 0 15 2 34 4 5 1 9 149 155
                       
CAR 4 0 12 2 31 5 4 1 9 164 176
FLA 4 0 12 2 32 6 2 2 6 190 168
TBL 5 0 13 1 32 5 2 3 9 179 183
NSH 7 1 15 3 33 6 5 2 9 159 171
DAL 4 0 12 0 29 4 2 2 10 157 153
CHI 8 1 16 1 33 3 4 2 6 175 151
DET 8 1 16 2 33 4 5 1 9 149 155
CBJ 8 1 16 3 33 5 7 1 9 117 133
                       
PIT 8 0 12 0 33 4 4 2 9 152 155
WSH 8 1 12 1 31 5 4 2 10 153 162
BOS 7 0 14 1 28 3 4 4 8 160 178
NYI 7 0 13 1 35 5 4 1 8 144 135
NYR 7 0 13 0 34 2 4 3 7 179 169
PHI 8 1 13 2 31 6 6 1 12 167 167
NJD 7 0 9 1 30 5 2 1 10 155 148
BUF 8 2 10 3 31 8 2 2 13 143 139
                       
TOR 10 1 15 1 32 5 6 3 8 155 144
EDM 9 1 16 3 34 6 2 3 10 174 154
WPG 7 2 14 3 33 5 1 4 8 161 149
MTL 7 1 15 3 31 6 2 3 9 151 172
CGY 6 0 14 2 34 4 2 2 7 173 167
OTT 8 2 16 3 35 6 4 1 9 174 171
VAN 10 3 18 4 37 6 3 0 11 150 181

 

Vancouver was tied with Toronto with most games played in 15 days (10), which is a pretty heavy workload. 

We started our season, just as hard as we ended it, with a league leading 18 games in 30 days. (19games in our final 30 days)

The most back to back games in the first 15 days

The most back to back games in the first 30 days

Vancouver had the most games played by day 70 of the season, by anywhere from 2-9 games more than any other NHL team

Despite Minnesota having less 2+ day off breaks, Minnesota had less back to backs and far less games played by the time the Canucks were shut down. They had a much lighter schedule, which intensified later in the season. Unfortunately for Vancouver, it was extremely intense to start the season and then teetered off a tiny bit. Then COVID put is back at the bottom of the hill. Where we finished the season with a 19 games in 30 days.

We were originally scheduled to have 7 total back to back games. We ended up with 11 back to back games. 6 prior to COVID and then 5 more in the rapid end to the season.

A team without much practice time to gel, work on special teams and is playing almost every single night, is going to struggle.

We were the 3rd most penalized team, likely due to the exhaustion. Unable to keep up with the play and taking penalties because of it

We were 28th in PP opportunities with 150. Hard to draw a penalty if other teams are rested and skating laps around you.

There was no real rest for the Canucks and after a 100m sprint start, its easy to fall behind quick without proper preparation

We began to click and get on a roll a few weeks prior to COVID running rampant through the dressing room. We went 8-4-1 over a 13 game stretch leading up to the COVID outbreak. Had this not happened and with what was going to be a lighter schedule for the remainder of the season, I firmly believe this team would have been in the playoff picture.

 

Vancouver also started the season with 13 games in 21 days, in which we didnt have a practice. Thats nearly 25% of the season where the team has new faces that haven't had time to get used to the system or their partners/line mates. 

 

 

 

I think you'll be hard pressed to find anyone to disagree with this. Solid analysis and good take on just how the odds were stacked against the Nucks this year. 

 

It's no secret the schedule screwed us over in the first month. I was hoping that by the time the second half came with our bye week and less back to backs, the team can actually pick up some more wins at the expense of the teams that had an easier schedule to start with (Calgary for instance.) So yes, it was a ridiculous position the league put us in and is definitely an outlier that will most likely never happen again (the division alignment + covid)

 

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There are many positives to take from this season aside from another high first round pick and there are many good signs of things to come. This is the next section where I would like to give credit to the coaching staff and the team for what they had to go through this season and how games were much closer than you would think. 

So going back to your words from section 1:

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I believe in this group and I can say with confidence that this season is not a season to judge success or failure.  This was not a fair season, every team gets hit with injuries which is an obstacle that you expect each season. But to have injuries, COVID AND brutal scheduling DUE TO COVID, its not a great eye test.

I agree with your premise in the first section disqualifying 2021 as a 'normal' season, but the second half of your analysis/argument then goes on to using 2020/2021 season data to make inference to future seasonal trends and how we will stack up successfully against other teams in the league.

 

Right after you said 2020/21 season is not a valid measuring stick of this team. Therefore should the stats be invalidated? or recognized as outlier stats that may not be indicative of future behavior/patterns?

 

That is probably the crux of where I differentiate from your take in the second half. I'll still dive deep into your numbers here using the same hockey-references data.

 

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Despite Vancouver sporting a 23-29-4 record and finishing in the bottom of the league, you'll be surprised to see how Vancouver compares to some of the other teams around the league...Tampa Bay might be very shocking.......

 I've gone and looked at Advanced statistics for each and every team just to see how "out of place" we are. I'm going to throw a couple very shocking stats at the very end that might make you say "Woah, Tampa and Edmonton were near the bottom of the league for high danger chances!?"

Color me intrigued. :)

 

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In this unusual and incredibly tough season for Vancouver they ranked 6th in xGF. Which is quite impressive considering we were without Pettersson for 30 games and much higher than teams like TBL, PIT, NYI, BOS, EDM and we played 1/3 of our Season in back to backs and pretty much the whole season without rest and practice time. We were getting lots of chances, next season we will be burying our opportunities.  Sure Kucherov was missing for Tampa, but we didn't let the absence of Pettersson get in the way of us generating chances and getting into scoring positions. We just needed better execution, which will come.

 I agree it is impressive and surprising, the question is, Is it sustainable and can it be used as an indicator of future trend? I agree that better execution is needed with this team going forward, and I do hope the staff can help support this team to do that. I think you can have a whole other argument on whether xGF is a good indicator to gauge the health of an offense.

 

From hockey-references.com, using sample data since 2017 where Green started his tenure as coach vs the other teams you listed. So yes 2021 is an outlier, but not in the way we envisioned. (surprise, Oilers also suck). Again, I think it is equally valid to suggest that 2021 is such an outlier, we don't know if we will just fall back to our form during 'normal' times in a normal division with the same coaching staff. 

 

I invite you to entertain this thought, and flip your thesis on it's head. I believe the other teams are not as bad as their stats this year suggest and the ground we have to cover to catch up is larger than you think it is going by 2021 data alone. Again, i also believe the quality of the defenses and goaltenders in the divisions has a part to play in this too. 

image.png.b033f1461aca5480de899aa809d2f2e3.png

 

I think with TBL, it is also important to note they were also missing Stamkos for 18 games (so 18 without Kuch+Stam), and faced on average, better defenses in their division than ours for shot suppression. The North was dead last by a mile from Tampa's division (Central) in terms of scoring chances against (an average of 40 scoring chances per team on the season), so by virtue of this context, the Canucks have more chances to bump up their offensive xGF numbers on more offensively permitting defenses in the north.

 

I don't have full visibly on xGF calculation, but i'm operating under the assumption scoring chances = higher weighting on goals expected.

 

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We finished 20th in xGA which at first glance doesnt look great, but given this teams hurdles and intense workload this season, I don't see this trend continuing next season. I believe with a fair season for all teams and just the usual injury obstacles being the only thing to affect a season, I can see this team overcoming injury adversity. We showed we can win games and hang in there without Pettersson for 30 games as well as other injuries up and down the lineup that left holes in key roles such as PK and dZone duties. We were managing okay through the first 37 games with the tough scheduling and missing Pettersson and the other injuries, but COVID and the logjam of games to end the season was too much for us to overcome. I truly believe the overwhelming fatigue is what led to teams getting the amount of opportunities they did.

I actually have it at 19th in xGA. Again the historical trend on GA isn't that much brighter, especially considering we had MVP caliber goaltending from Marky with a solid D core, and 2021 is the outlier. Is this coaching or roster construction? Something is going on here with our team and it isn't just limited to this year. 

 

Could be the start of a pattern, but again, should 2021 be used as a barometer of success/failure for future seasons?

 

image.png.8bb27ac68d9d18b0beae34424f1f2e49.png

 

fwiw I'm open to believing this can get better, with the same coaching staff, but the front will need to have tangible proof of this going forward rather than hoping for the best. I think you can understand when Benning tells me as a fan 'anything can happen in playoffs, we took Vegas to 7 games', I am a bit skeptical considering even in that series the shot differential was lopsided and relied on historically insane goaltending from Demko to get to Game 7 (-104 shot differential, 0.985% sv hockey reference: source).

 

And Benning's plan is to repeat the same course of action and hope for the best? I know he won the cup on the back of Timmy Thomas but those performances are far and few between and are supplemented by a team that can show it can score with a positive goal and shot differential. 

 

Hope for the best is the luxury of us fans, it would help to inspire some more confidence if I didn't hear this from the front office tasked with roster construction and strategic moves. 

 

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Vancouver tied for 4th xDiff. Vancouver as much as they gave up opportunities, they had equal opportunities, we just could not convert our chances. Pettersson was leading the league in the first 10 games with 5+ posts and several broken sticks on the one-timer. This is an area that can be improved in both ways, which bodes well for the Canucks next season. With Pettersson and Podkolzin potentially in the line up next season, our offensive prowess should see an increase. Being more rested throughout the season alone, should help with our dzone. Add some practice time and getting the new faces familiarized with Baumer's systems should see Demko and Holtby's job getting easier. 

 

Yes we are tied for Bottom 4 , sharing company with teams that we like to make fun of. I think goal/GF differential is a key stat when predicting playoff teams. Historically speaking, teams that do well in the playoffs rank in the top 10 in goal differential.

 

image.png.ae7a3993a24817e2fbdfeb6060ad6739.png


Conversely on the top 10 side alot of the teams you singled out for our comparison vs Van, in terms of goal / axdiff, we are worlds apart there in comparison. Highlighted are the teams we were 'ahead' of in xGF. 

 

image.png.4a05b6ace5cbcab0cb6b9c468a39dcb1.png

 

The numbers speak for themselves, although I agree with you here in the sense that we were extremely (and most likely unsustainably) bad at converting (and stopping opponent's) chances and we really need to do a lot better here in the future. I expect this to improve next year because we aren't normally this bad. 2021 is a wacky year. 

 

image.png.908d4bb46293b9aad51f8239cc132ddd.png

 

I agree regarding Petey's post saga and broken sticks adding up. Historically speaking our team is just unlucky! This is where the numbers agree with your take. We need less Canuck Luck, more league average luck.

 

image.png.8bbee52e432e96bdf7d033ea2d556ff4.png

 

How we stack up against your sample teams. 

 

image.png.223ca792d2d7a7bf2424da81b26d65e5.png

 

image.png.2845dff8f2f2f34d8bc017118075df8c.png

 

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This IS the same coaching staff and systems that beat out Minnesota to EARN a playoff spot and then spanked St. Louis to then take Vegas to a game 7.

It is, and my feelings, like their results, are mixed on this. Refer back to the stats on the Vegas series on this one. 

 

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Vancouver ranked 15th in SCF we had 203 MORE SCF THAN EDMONTON, 170 more than Tampa and 162 more than Pittsburgh.

Vancouver is not too far off the top teams in the league for generating chances. 

I attribute this to the quality and style of the teams that make up the division and the self contained nature of each division. Tampa is in the Central and Pittsburgh is in the East. It is not indicative of how the team would perform in a regular 82 season schedule post covid, which is where we hope to become competitive in in the future. 

 

image.png.20c0ed0093df0e80890ac0cc8894e7e6.png

 

 

Here is the how much closer the divisions are if i take the current division make up, but run it with 2019 matchup data on an 82 game regular season. The spread is much closer and the in division effect is smaller (10% vs 4%).

 

image.png.86561c9e7201f04b0ac37d568f95f951.png

 

Because of the nature of this season, it's more accurate to say that the 2021 NHL season is really four 'mini' self contained leagues that will never exist again barring another pandemic (knock on wood) So are they really top 10 in terms of generating chances for the 'league'

 

Again, this is the issue raised when using 2021 data to extrapolate to future seasons. 

 

Also, I don't think I need stats to back this up and you can agree with me on this. Outside of McD and Drai, Edmonton just plain sucks at generating offense. similar to the takes here people have on bashing Gillis' drafting. Is being better than Edmonton in this category in this unique season any indicator we are performing well compared to the rest of the league when we do resume the normal schedule? I don't think it's a high bar personally.

 

image.png.a8ffc0437abc068caf2678503953fcf7.png

 

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Vancouver ranked 20th in SCA once again, I dont think this was a result of systems or personnel. I feel strongly that teams gained opportunities due to the fatigue throughout the Canucks roster. Injuries obviously had a hand in this as well, as it does with every team. But no other team had a schedule like ours, that is where I see that this team is better than what the standings showed. Next year WILL be a different story and a much better one.

WILL is a strong word, going by history, compared to the teams we've sampled for xGF. We are bringing back the same coaching staff. Yes 2021 we had an abnormal schedule, but our performance under a 'normal' schedule is still suspect. And yes while we were rebuilding, we were also paying premium for veterans to shelter our rookies and make sure this team isn't drowning under water....that should still translate to some results.

 

image.png.d6d76428a72d340c6ee399deab42adb8.png

 

I definitely open to seeing us do better, but if we are using stats, the principle is that the best indicator for future behavior holding things constant (mgmt, coaching, personnel) is past behavior/results.

 

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Vancouver ranked 12th in HDF This is a trend that WILL continue next season and WILL get better as well. We had 41 more HDF than Tampa F***ing BAY, 55 more than Pittsburgh,  51 more than Edmonton, 32 more than Boston... 

IF we could trade either Pettersson being injured for no COVID, or Pettersson in the lineup for COVID, This team would be a playoff team no questions asked. But both No Pettersson AND covid... is too much to a team.

Dallas is one team that had fairly similar adversity, they were missing Seguin for 53 games and their season started late and had a 9 day break part way into the season. They went from Stanley cup finals last season, to early tee times this season. They had strong xGF, xGA, SCF, SCA, HDF, HDA and missed the playoffs. 

Just a meta-commentary, but if I posted one historical stat from a one season sample size above showing us finishing bottom 10 in the league and then proclaim that we WILL continue that trend next season and we WILL continue to get worse. I'd be raked over the coals!  

 

Again, I just don't think you can compare performance within a division as indication of league wide performance in 2021. The nature of the schedule where teams only play each other pretty much makes any comparison vs the league kind of immaterial. Could the fact that HDF can be indicative of the quality of the defenses in the divisions? I think we can make an argument there.

 

Division Avg. HDF per team
West 179.3
North 170.6
East 158.0
Central

155.0

 

In terms of HDF for Edmonton, I think that a damning indictment against the quality of their depth. I wonder how many of those HDF were attributed to McD and Drai. 

 

I'm on the same page as you though on this one, I expect our offensive numbers to tick up. Especially when you consider our historically low PDO

 

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Vancouver tied for 19th in HDA with Tampa Bay. We gave up plenty of chances and hung our goalies out to dry at times, this trend will not continue next season 

I see nothing to indicate this yet. I say yet, because these next two years we have an opportunity to completely re-arrange the D core and the coaching staff can hopefully learn from their past on deployment. Going by historical trend, our tendency to give up HDA is actually staying constant. We weren't doing that much worse in giving up HDA, but just that this year the defense and goaltending completely collapsed due to Covid/chemistry/schedule reasons. We couldn't make the saves as much as we used to in prior years on those chances. 

 

Here's an ugly stat. when it came to 2021, Canucks were 31st in HDCO% (which is converted goals for opposing High Danger Chances %) so when we &^@# up we &^@# up the worst out of the league, 17% of the time, it resulted in a goal. For reference, the league average was around 12.4%

 

image.png.6f6d699176a3ef1aecfd8b52f32bd74a.png

 

Going back to our previous point on expected differential (axdiff) this is most likely one of the big contributors on why we cratered in that category. (actual differential minus expected differential). Teams were feasting on us when they had high danger chances and it tanked our actual differential. With our 38 goals against from high danger chances (HDGA) and a 17.7% conversion rate for our opponents against us for their HDC, a 5% shift to the league average of 12.4% represents a roughly 11 point shift in our goal differential alone!

 

image.png.908d4bb46293b9aad51f8239cc132ddd.png

(so we'd be at....-19 if our defense was league average at preventing goals on high danger chances)

 

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There is no argument for Tampa who had significantly less high danger chances, expected goals for, scoring chances to be down near the bottom of the league in a lot of the offensive categories. People can say "oh well they were missing Kucherov", ya??? well we were missing Pettersson, so what??? We still provided far more chances without our star player. Same with Edmonton, they have the two top scoring players in the league and the best player on the planet, why did they have such few chances as well??? Edmonton doesnt have a team to support McDavid and Draisaitl, outside of those  2 players no one else is helping create offence. We ARE getting contributions from all four lines. We have A TEAM going into next year. 

I think missing Kucherov for the entire regular season and Stamkos for 30% of the season can explain the decrease in their offense. It's like taking Petey and Miller out of our line up and expecting the team to produce at the same rate as Calgary. 

 

Again I think you are underselling the effect Kuch and Stammer have on Tampa's offence and generating chances. In 2019-2020, they accounted for roughly 23% of all their forwards regular season points. Guess who had a similar % portion of the offence on our end? Petey + Miller. 

 

I'm of the opinion that it is the opposite. The bottom 6 is weighing down the roster in terms of offensive production and is not contributing enough defensively for what they are being paid.

 

 

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Brief Explanation and Updated Explanation

 

Game Score is a linear weight model with the weights for each stat within it being derived according to the frequency of goals occurring from them and are as such:

Goals: 0.75
Primary Assists: 0.7
Secondary Assists: 0.55
Shots: 0.075
Blocks: 0.05
Penalty Differential: 0.15
Faceoff Differential: 0.01
5-on-5 Corsi Differential: 0.05
5-on-5 Goal Differential: 0.15

 

 

Quote

 

Right now Tampa Bay is being held together by unreal goaltending and their ability to convert on their chances, which appears to be not many. They leave their goalie out to dry on a nightly basis. They are lucky to have incredible goaltending, just as we are lucky to have Demko to hold down the fort, especially when we are ready to truly compete and contend. It took Tampa a loooong time to win a cup since they drafted Stamkos in 2008, Hedman in 2009, Kucherov in 2011 and Vasilevskiy in 2012

You just described our rope a dope playoff series against Vegas haha. and basically our team. 

 

I agree, but I think we should not neglect that they made the Stanley Cup Final in 2015 and made the conference finals in 2011. They rebounded quicker than we did after 2011 and retooled twice to win a cup. I don't think Tampa is a comparison that will make our situation look any more favorable. They are the class of the NHL along with the Avalanche. 

 

 

 

Quote

Please Canucks fans, ignore the standings this season and look deeper at what we have going on. I understand the frustration of losing and how people feel like they need to blame someone, be it the coaches or management, but it has only been 3 years since the actual rebuild began. I understand why people feel the need for change, but through the first 2 years of the rebuild we made the playoffs with the management team that assembled that roster, drafted those key players and it was the coaching staff that got the most out of them and helped take us to a game 7 with Vegas.  This season should have an asterisk next to it for everyone's resume. Next season is fair to start calling for heads and by the end of Green's 2 year extension, if we have not found success heads shall fall. This team is going to compete next year and in the coming years we shall go from competitive to contenders. 

I agree to an extent. I will lay out of my cards here.

 

If Benning shows restraint in not committing himself to ill advised aggressive long term signings (ala OEL, Barrie), inefficient buyouts,  and focuses instead on cheaper depth signings to ride out 2022 and the Loui Eriksson/Luongo cap to maximize our capspace for 2023. I will go a step further and say next year fans should not be too concerned about a losing record and should not be calling for anyone's head.

 

The focus here is to be patient for one more year and ride out the cap troubles. I would not expect, nor want, JB to pursue moves that will handicap this team long term or mortgage the future unnecessarily in the name of making the playoffs for a one and done like in 2020.

 

IF he makes moves congruent to that. I'm willing to give him a pass on the team's performance next year as the cap situation dictates that we just ignore next year and focus on 2022 and beyond. I would not be on the #firebenning train because he shows he's willing to think ahead past making playoffs at all costs.

 

likewise if Benning goes all in again for playoffs at all costs like he did in 2020, you bet I'll be holding him accountable for the season's results!

 

I'd just like to see management show some restraint and forethought here. It's the same patience I wish they practiced in 2016 and 2019. 

 

The frustration isn't with losing. It's just the continual repeating of avoidable, unforced errors in UFA, the cap management and player management that has handicapped the team and held it back from what it can truly accomplish. I fear we are wasting Bo's prime here. 

 

Quote

Sorry for the exceptionally long post, but I couldnt help the belief I have in this team from preventing me from shedding the positive light on the situation that was this season. Stay strong Canuck fans. 
 

edit: these stats are from hockey-reference.com for those who are interested and they are 5v5 stats 

Appreciate it. I love it when I get to geek out on stats! Again, there's nothing wrong with shedding a positive light on the team or believing. I cheer for the team. Just understand that some of us are frustrated by the moves done prior to this season and in past seasons. 


As the saying goes, Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. I don't think this team is beyond redemption or is doomed to fail, but the main concern is that it's not easy to buy that the same management group who has made mistakes in free agency with cap space and roster construction the last seven years is suddenly going to change his spots.

 

I don't expect you to agree with me, but at least I hope you can understand why I am concerned that the mgmt group that thought Eriksson was worth $6 mil in 2016, Gudbranson, Beagle, Roussel was worth a collective $10 mil in 2018, Myers and Ferland were worth a collective $9.5 mil in 2019, and Holtby and Jake were worth $7.8 mil in 2020, will now have $20 mil to work with the next two offseasons that will set the course of the team for the next decade. I really want this leopard to change his spots. 

 

Again, I would love for you to be right. Maybe Myers evolves into a 60pt defensemen next year who knows? At the end of the day, we can talk hope and potential till we are blue in the face.

 

It will need to translates into tangible results that will make all the aforementioned stats we just referenced look prettier. (Fwiw, I do agree with you that our offense will improve, just going by luck and conversion rates alone, but the bigger question is whether our defense can take the next step.)

 

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@DSVIIExcellent reply. I really appreciate it, I’ll hit you back later tonight. 
Also Im just starting to really get into advanced stats, just wondering where your favourite source for information is? Is Hockey-reference a fairly trustable and reliable source? Ive had some people questioning it

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

@DSVIIExcellent reply. I really appreciate it, I’ll hit you back later tonight. 
Also Im just starting to really get into advanced stats, just wondering where your favourite source for information is? Is Hockey-reference a fairly trustable and reliable source? Ive had some people questioning it

Sounds good @knucklehead91!

 

Personally, I would love to be smart enough to data scrape off the official game sheets. A lot of my information is downloaded and curated by myself on an excel spreadsheet from multiple sources. I had a pet project to show how historically bad our drafting is vs other teams, and the average time a drafted player on a cup winning team had to wait to win their first cup from 2011 to 2017 post draft (on avg, it was about 6 years after they were drafted)

 

i plan on updating it to show the effect of the Benning era, i expect it to be better.

 

My next pet project was mapping out our penalties for games officiated by Kelly Sutherland vs the rest of the league officials. Because I've had a vendetta against his horrendous bias against the Nucks since giving Daniel a 10 min major for being punched in the face by Marchand. 

 

As for your question. Yes I believe Hockey Reference is a good source for stats. I mean all these sites are making use of the same available NHL data to make their calculations. 

 

If I were to have any criticism, Hockey Reference is just not that good for extremely detailed analysis. 

 

For more detailed stats:

 

As for my fave spots for stats. I love natural stat trick as they provide game by game data advanced stats and the building blocks of the stats for you so you can carve it out however you want.

 

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/games.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20202021&stype=3&sit=5v5&loc=B&team=VAN&team2=All&rate=n

 

Money puck for individual player stats AND line stats  http://moneypuck.com/stats.htm

image.thumb.png.c08294a426c16efcc437005ffee942c1.png

 

And Kaggle for the most granular level of detail. Although these datasets are usually a year behind 

 

https://www.kaggle.com/martinellis/nhl-game-data

 

 

 

 

Question: Where did you get the scheduling stats for section 1? Did you manually curate this yourself? 

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47 minutes ago, DSVII said:

Sounds good @knucklehead91!

 

Personally, I would love to be smart enough to data scrape off the official game sheets. A lot of my information is downloaded and curated by myself on an excel spreadsheet from multiple sources. I had a pet project to show how historically bad our drafting is vs other teams, and the average time a drafted player on a cup winning team had to wait to win their first cup from 2011 to 2017 post draft (on avg, it was about 6 years after they were drafted)

 

i plan on updating it to show the effect of the Benning era, i expect it to be better.

 

My next pet project was mapping out our penalties for games officiated by Kelly Sutherland vs the rest of the league officials. Because I've had a vendetta against his horrendous bias against the Nucks since giving Daniel a 10 min major for being punched in the face by Marchand. 

 

As for your question. Yes I believe Hockey Reference is a good source for stats. I mean all these sites are making use of the same available NHL data to make their calculations. 

 

If I were to have any criticism, Hockey Reference is just not that good for extremely detailed analysis. 

 

For more detailed stats:

 

As for my fave spots for stats. I love natural stat trick as they provide game by game data advanced stats and the building blocks of the stats for you so you can carve it out however you want.

 

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/games.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20202021&stype=3&sit=5v5&loc=B&team=VAN&team2=All&rate=n

 

Money puck for individual player stats AND line stats  http://moneypuck.com/stats.htm

image.thumb.png.c08294a426c16efcc437005ffee942c1.png

 

And Kaggle for the most granular level of detail. Although these datasets are usually a year behind 

 

https://www.kaggle.com/martinellis/nhl-game-data

 

 

 

 

Question: Where did you get the scheduling stats for section 1? Did you manually curate this yourself

I manually did it myself. It was tedious, but I was determined to show how our first portion of the schedule was unlike any other teams and overall our entire schedule was unlike anyone else.

I will be sure to check out some of the links you have provided for my future posts, thanks a bunch and I will get back to you later tonight or tomorrow as your response was huge and I greatly appreciate you touching on each point.

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@DSVII

 

" if Benning goes all in again for playoffs at all costs like he did in 2020"

 

Since when is a 'B' prospect and a 2nd "going all in"?

 

"Maybe Myers evolves into a 60pt defensemen next year who knows? "

 

If Myers was scoring at that rate, he'd be worth over $8m per year on a likely closer to max term contract.

 

 

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2 hours ago, DSVII said:

Sounds good @knucklehead91!

 

Personally, I would love to be smart enough to data scrape off the official game sheets. A lot of my information is downloaded and curated by myself on an excel spreadsheet from multiple sources. I had a pet project to show how historically bad our drafting is vs other teams, and the average time a drafted player on a cup winning team had to wait to win their first cup from 2011 to 2017 post draft (on avg, it was about 6 years after they were drafted)

 

i plan on updating it to show the effect of the Benning era, i expect it to be better.

 

My next pet project was mapping out our penalties for games officiated by Kelly Sutherland vs the rest of the league officials. Because I've had a vendetta against his horrendous bias against the Nucks since giving Daniel a 10 min major for being punched in the face by Marchand. 

 

As for your question. Yes I believe Hockey Reference is a good source for stats. I mean all these sites are making use of the same available NHL data to make their calculations. 

 

If I were to have any criticism, Hockey Reference is just not that good for extremely detailed analysis. 

 

For more detailed stats:

 

As for my fave spots for stats. I love natural stat trick as they provide game by game data advanced stats and the building blocks of the stats for you so you can carve it out however you want.

 

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/games.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20202021&stype=3&sit=5v5&loc=B&team=VAN&team2=All&rate=n

 

Money puck for individual player stats AND line stats  http://moneypuck.com/stats.htm

image.thumb.png.c08294a426c16efcc437005ffee942c1.png

 

And Kaggle for the most granular level of detail. Although these datasets are usually a year behind 

 

https://www.kaggle.com/martinellis/nhl-game-data

 

 

 

 

Question: Where did you get the scheduling stats for section 1? Did you manually curate this yourself? 

If you are interested in doing this sort of analysis more often it’s probably worth learning the basics of python to do some web scraping from the team sheets and then load them into small database so you can then pull them with queries rather than manually or brute forcing it into excel 

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57 minutes ago, aGENT said:

@DSVII

 

" if Benning goes all in again for playoffs at all costs like he did in 2020"

 

Since when is a 'B' prospect and a 2nd "going all in"?

 

 

 

Is this really your only takeaway from my post? 

 

In any case, to the two points.

 

Madden was not a 'B' level prospect IMO (Ranked 5th by NHL, Ranked 5th by Athletic,  Ranked 3rd by Hockey Writers) If you were excited about Nils hoglander in 2019, the hockey Magazines had Madden ranked within one spot of where Nils sat in our prospect pool. His value would not have been that of a B prospect.

 

I would say trading your 1st, 2nd and a top 5 prospect in your pool constitutes going all in. If a competing team did this the narrative would be the same.

 

Quote

"Maybe Myers evolves into a 60pt defensemen next year who knows? "

 

If Myers was scoring at that rate, he'd be worth over $8m per year on a likely closer to max term contract.

I guess sarcasm didn't translate too well there. It was an exaggeration. Barring any meaningful changes this offseason Myers will seriously need to step up if we want to make up ground on that goal differential.

But is this also an indirect admission that the production of 21 pt Myers is perhaps not worth his $6 mil cap hit? :bigblush:

Going by your scale. 

$8 mil -> 60 pts

$4 mil -> 30 pts

Tyler Myers -> 20-25 pts

 

Haha I know this is simple yes, I'm just getting a kick out of this considering our interpretations of the value Myers' brings relative to his contract is a source of a lot of our disagreements. 

 

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20 minutes ago, UKNuck96 said:

If you are interested in doing this sort of analysis more often it’s probably worth learning the basics of python to do some web scraping from the team sheets and then load them into small database so you can then pull them with queries rather than manually or brute forcing it into excel 

Thanks! I've been doing python and sql on the side. I do want to get the web scraping down. Who knows, maybe I can do some fun analytics on here if i get the hang of it! 

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On 5/28/2021 at 10:53 AM, DSVII said:

Is this really your only takeaway from my post? 

Nope. Just the main two things I took issue with. I thought you'd be happy it was only two things :bigblush:

 

Quote

Madden was not a 'B' level prospect IMO (Ranked 5th by NHL, Ranked 5th by Athletic,  Ranked 3rd by Hockey Writers) If you were excited about Nils hoglander in 2019, the hockey Magazines had Madden ranked within one spot of where Nils sat in our prospect pool. His value would not have been that of a B prospect.

Yeah, he was. At best, B+

 

Quote

I would say trading your 1st, 2nd and a top 5 prospect in your pool constitutes going all in. If a competing team did this the narrative would be the same.

Maybe if that was for a single rental, sure. It was for two guys, one of whom is a guy in his prime, with term. The other, we were fully intending to extend until covid happened (heck, even after if we'd been able to get stars to align).

 

Quote

I guess sarcasm didn't translate too well there. It was an exaggeration. Barring any meaningful changes this offseason Myers will seriously need to step up if we want to make up ground on that goal differential.

But is this also an indirect admission that the production of 21 pt Myers is perhaps not worth his $6 mil cap hit? :bigblush:

Going by your scale. 

$8 mil -> 60 pts

$4 mil -> 30 pts

Tyler Myers -> 20-25 pts

 

Haha I know this is simple yes, I'm just getting a kick out of this considering our interpretations of the value Myers' brings relative to his contract is a source of a lot of our disagreements. 

Yeah... No. One, that's not how that works. Two, that '21 points' is not his /82 rate. Don't be that guy.

 

I also think you vastly misunderstand my interpretation of his 'value relative to his contract'. In no way do I think Tyler Myers, or his contract, is 'OMGDDZZZ AMAZING!'

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On 5/27/2021 at 2:24 PM, BCNate said:

We will be replacing Toronto, Winnipeg, Montreal and Ottawa with Vegas, Seattle, LA, SJ and Anaheim.  I'll take that swap any day of the week.

How many of those teams were actually worse than the Canucks though? Seattle will probably start out with a pretty good team.

 

LA and Anaheim could be a lot better too. Same type of chance as the Canucks being a lot better.

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those original stats look suspect.... suspect at source, not the OP's fault.

 

couldn't we get away from subjective, advanced stats and look at shots for/against?.... does not look pretty for Canucks. nor did it look that great when markstrom was here last year. goalies have stolen alot of games for us.

 

I love advanced stats in sports, but subjectivity is double-edged sword..... good as it's lots of work and gives u unique information. but these stats will vary greatly from site to site. whereas objective stats (and there are some advanced, objective stats) won't.

 

most teams had brutal schedules. many teams had huge covid issues........ Petey going down really hurt. but we lack depth.... and new players plus brutal early schedule was definitely tough. but other teams played tons of games of late and then have to jump right into playoff games....... so lots of teams had our problems. perhaps we had some unique negative moderate factors

 

I'm inclined to just forget this season... but I'd also discount our playoff success last year. 

 

this team needs to develop a winning culture and develop 3rd and 4th line talent in-house.

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does OP actually think we outplayed other teams alot of nights?

 

we had some big wins for sure....... but lots and lots of not very close loses. and demko stole some wins for us.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/28/2021 at 1:53 PM, DSVII said:

Is this really your only takeaway from my post? 

 

In any case, to the two points.

 

Madden was not a 'B' level prospect IMO (Ranked 5th by NHL, Ranked 5th by Athletic,  Ranked 3rd by Hockey Writers) If you were excited about Nils hoglander in 2019, the hockey Magazines had Madden ranked within one spot of where Nils sat in our prospect pool. His value would not have been that of a B prospect.

 

I would say trading your 1st, 2nd and a top 5 prospect in your pool constitutes going all in. If a competing team did this the narrative would be the same.

 

I guess sarcasm didn't translate too well there. It was an exaggeration. Barring any meaningful changes this offseason Myers will seriously need to step up if we want to make up ground on that goal differential.

But is this also an indirect admission that the production of 21 pt Myers is perhaps not worth his $6 mil cap hit? :bigblush:

Going by your scale. 

$8 mil -> 60 pts

$4 mil -> 30 pts

Tyler Myers -> 20-25 pts

 

Haha I know this is simple yes, I'm just getting a kick out of this considering our interpretations of the value Myers' brings relative to his contract is a source of a lot of our disagreements. 

 

Last fall, before the start of the season, the Hockey Writers top 100 list had Madden in the 80's, Hogander in the high 20's .... guess we traded the correct player.   More recently (Hogs graduated) the Hockey Writers had Madden at 83.   THN also had Hogs in the late 20's when we traded Madden - and Madden in the mid 50's...so not sure where your getting the idea the Hoglander and Madden were close when we traded them (Hoglander and Madden were anywhere from 25-50 spots apart 2020 final reviews pre-draft from these two sources).   I use THN as my baseline for prospects given it's the aggregate ranking of 10 NHL scouts.   Sure that you could find other sources.   Highest i've seen Madden was in the mid 50's... (best prospects in the world) that would be the highest i ever saw AG as well.   Top 25-30 is a totally different animal, most make it as it usually includes three or more drafts.   After last years draft Hogs was 24-27th that's a blue chipper compared to a miss or a possible bottom sixer the two are not the same prospect wise. 

 

Edit:  Just because Madden was close to Hogs in our pool doesn't mean he's close as a quality player. He does make some top 100 lists.  

 

Also OJ and Woo made the 80's as well before the season started the Hockey Writers.   Woo one spot ahead of OJ lol.   Now Woo isn't on their most recent list and OJ is still there.   Fluid.   At the time of the trade, Madden was and still is considered a top hundred prospect (for now) but a completely different level - more a possible then a likely like Hogs was and obviously actually is.   As an aside Rathbone is 77....still ahead of OJ. 

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Posted (edited)

 

 

On 5/27/2021 at 10:33 PM, DSVII said:

So first off, hats off to you OP for doing the season schedule analysis. It's pretty rare to see this kind of schedule analytics even in the sports media, so if you brute forced the data for the season schedule that's pretty damn impressive. I'm not sure why PP and PK are separate columns though, unless you were looking to see differential. A more interesting experiment would be to see how PP/PK changes throughout the season, because yes, I agree with your point that we took more penalties in the second half because we were too tired.


1. I have not met a single fan that didn't claim Covid and Scheduling didn't play a part in this. So perhaps this is not directed at me :p

 

I think you'll be hard pressed to find anyone to disagree with this. Solid analysis and good take on just how the odds were stacked against the Nucks this year. 

 

It's no secret the schedule screwed us over in the first month. I was hoping that by the time the second half came with our bye week and less back to backs, the team can actually pick up some more wins at the expense of the teams that had an easier schedule to start with (Calgary for instance.) So yes, it was a ridiculous position the league put us in and is definitely an outlier that will most likely never happen again (the division alignment + covid)

 

So going back to your words from section 1:

I agree with your premise in the first section disqualifying 2021 as a 'normal' season, but the second half of your analysis/argument then goes on to using 2020/2021 season data to make inference to future seasonal trends and how we will stack up successfully against other teams in the league.

 

2. Right after you said 2020/21 season is not a valid measuring stick of this team. Therefore should the stats be invalidated? or recognized as outlier stats that may not be indicative of future behavior/patterns?

 

That is probably the crux of where I differentiate from your take in the second half. I'll still dive deep into your numbers here using the same hockey-references data.

 

Color me intrigued. :)

 

 I agree it is impressive and surprising, the question is, Is it sustainable and can it be used as an indicator of future trend? I agree that better execution is needed with this team going forward, and I do hope the staff can help support this team to do that. I think you can have a whole other argument on whether xGF is a good indicator to gauge the health of an offense.

 

From hockey-references.com, using sample data since 2017 where Green started his tenure as coach vs the other teams you listed. So yes 2021 is an outlier, but not in the way we envisioned. (surprise, Oilers also suck). Again, I think it is equally valid to suggest that 2021 is such an outlier, we don't know if we will just fall back to our form during 'normal' times in a normal division with the same coaching staff. 

 

I invite you to entertain this thought, and flip your thesis on it's head. I believe the other teams are not as bad as their stats this year suggest and the ground we have to cover to catch up is larger than you think it is going by 2021 data alone. Again, i also believe the quality of the defenses and goaltenders in the divisions has a part to play in this too. 

image.png.b033f1461aca5480de899aa809d2f2e3.png

 

3. I think with TBL, it is also important to note they were also missing Stamkos for 18 games (so 18 without Kuch+Stam), and faced on average, better defenses in their division than ours for shot suppression. The North was dead last by a mile from Tampa's division (Central) in terms of scoring chances against (an average of 40 scoring chances per team on the season), so by virtue of this context, the Canucks have more chances to bump up their offensive xGF numbers on more offensively permitting defenses in the north.

 

I don't have full visibly on xGF calculation, but i'm operating under the assumption scoring chances = higher weighting on goals expected.

 

I actually have it at 19th in xGA. Again the historical trend on GA isn't that much brighter, especially considering we had MVP caliber goaltending from Marky with a solid D core, and 2021 is the outlier. Is this coaching or roster construction? Something is going on here with our team and it isn't just limited to this year. 

 

Could be the start of a pattern, but again, should 2021 be used as a barometer of success/failure for future seasons?

 

image.png.8bb27ac68d9d18b0beae34424f1f2e49.png

 

fwiw I'm open to believing this can get better, with the same coaching staff, but the front will need to have tangible proof of this going forward rather than hoping for the best. I think you can understand when Benning tells me as a fan 'anything can happen in playoffs, we took Vegas to 7 games', I am a bit skeptical considering even in that series the shot differential was lopsided and relied on historically insane goaltending from Demko to get to Game 7 (-104 shot differential, 0.985% sv hockey reference: source).

 

4. And Benning's plan is to repeat the same course of action and hope for the best? I know he won the cup on the back of Timmy Thomas but those performances are far and few between and are supplemented by a team that can show it can score with a positive goal and shot differential. 

 

Hope for the best is the luxury of us fans, it would help to inspire some more confidence if I didn't hear this from the front office tasked with roster construction and strategic moves. 

 

 

Yes we are tied for Bottom 4 , sharing company with teams that we like to make fun of. I think goal/GF differential is a key stat when predicting playoff teams. Historically speaking, teams that do well in the playoffs rank in the top 10 in goal differential.

 

image.png.ae7a3993a24817e2fbdfeb6060ad6739.png


Conversely on the top 10 side alot of the teams you singled out for our comparison vs Van, in terms of goal / axdiff, we are worlds apart there in comparison. Highlighted are the teams we were 'ahead' of in xGF. 

 

image.png.4a05b6ace5cbcab0cb6b9c468a39dcb1.png

 

The numbers speak for themselves, although I agree with you here in the sense that we were extremely (and most likely unsustainably) bad at converting (and stopping opponent's) chances and we really need to do a lot better here in the future. I expect this to improve next year because we aren't normally this bad. 2021 is a wacky year. 

 

image.png.908d4bb46293b9aad51f8239cc132ddd.png

 

I agree regarding Petey's post saga and broken sticks adding up. Historically speaking our team is just unlucky! This is where the numbers agree with your take. We need less Canuck Luck, more league average luck.

 

image.png.8bbee52e432e96bdf7d033ea2d556ff4.png

 

How we stack up against your sample teams. 

 

image.png.223ca792d2d7a7bf2424da81b26d65e5.png

 

image.png.2845dff8f2f2f34d8bc017118075df8c.png

 

It is, and my feelings, like their results, are mixed on this. Refer back to the stats on the Vegas series on this one. 

 

I attribute this to the quality and style of the teams that make up the division and the self contained nature of each division. Tampa is in the Central and Pittsburgh is in the East. It is not indicative of how the team would perform in a regular 82 season schedule post covid, which is where we hope to become competitive in in the future. 

 

image.png.20c0ed0093df0e80890ac0cc8894e7e6.png

 

 

Here is the how much closer the divisions are if i take the current division make up, but run it with 2019 matchup data on an 82 game regular season. The spread is much closer and the in division effect is smaller (10% vs 4%).

 

image.png.86561c9e7201f04b0ac37d568f95f951.png

 

Because of the nature of this season, it's more accurate to say that the 2021 NHL season is really four 'mini' self contained leagues that will never exist again barring another pandemic (knock on wood) So are they really top 10 in terms of generating chances for the 'league'

 

Again, this is the issue raised when using 2021 data to extrapolate to future seasons. 

 

5. Also, I don't think I need stats to back this up and you can agree with me on this. Outside of McD and Drai, Edmonton just plain sucks at generating offense. similar to the takes here people have on bashing Gillis' drafting. Is being better than Edmonton in this category in this unique season any indicator we are performing well compared to the rest of the league when we do resume the normal schedule? I don't think it's a high bar personally.

 

image.png.a8ffc0437abc068caf2678503953fcf7.png

 

WILL is a strong word, going by history, compared to the teams we've sampled for xGF. We are bringing back the same coaching staff. Yes 2021 we had an abnormal schedule, but our performance under a 'normal' schedule is still suspect. And yes while we were rebuilding, we were also paying premium for veterans to shelter our rookies and make sure this team isn't drowning under water....that should still translate to some results.

 

image.png.d6d76428a72d340c6ee399deab42adb8.png

 

I definitely open to seeing us do better, but if we are using stats, the principle is that the best indicator for future behavior holding things constant (mgmt, coaching, personnel) is past behavior/results.

 

Just a meta-commentary, but if I posted one historical stat from a one season sample size above showing us finishing bottom 10 in the league and then proclaim that we WILL continue that trend next season and we WILL continue to get worse. I'd be raked over the coals!  

 

Again, I just don't think you can compare performance within a division as indication of league wide performance in 2021. The nature of the schedule where teams only play each other pretty much makes any comparison vs the league kind of immaterial. Could the fact that HDF can be indicative of the quality of the defenses in the divisions? I think we can make an argument there.

 

Division Avg. HDF per team
West 179.3
North 170.6
East 158.0
Central

155.0

 

In terms of HDF for Edmonton, I think that a damning indictment against the quality of their depth. I wonder how many of those HDF were attributed to McD and Drai. 

 

I'm on the same page as you though on this one, I expect our offensive numbers to tick up. Especially when you consider our historically low PDO

 

7. I see nothing to indicate this yet. I say yet, because these next two years we have an opportunity to completely re-arrange the D core and the coaching staff can hopefully learn from their past on deployment. Going by historical trend, our tendency to give up HDA is actually staying constant. We weren't doing that much worse in giving up HDA, but just that this year the defense and goaltending completely collapsed due to Covid/chemistry/schedule reasons. We couldn't make the saves as much as we used to in prior years on those chances. 

 

Here's an ugly stat. when it came to 2021, Canucks were 31st in HDCO% (which is converted goals for opposing High Danger Chances %) so when we &^@# up we &^@# up the worst out of the league, 17% of the time, it resulted in a goal. For reference, the league average was around 12.4%

 

image.png.6f6d699176a3ef1aecfd8b52f32bd74a.png

 

Going back to our previous point on expected differential (axdiff) this is most likely one of the big contributors on why we cratered in that category. (actual differential minus expected differential). Teams were feasting on us when they had high danger chances and it tanked our actual differential. With our 38 goals against from high danger chances (HDGA) and a 17.7% conversion rate for our opponents against us for their HDC, a 5% shift to the league average of 12.4% represents a roughly 11 point shift in our goal differential alone!

 

image.png.908d4bb46293b9aad51f8239cc132ddd.png

(so we'd be at....-19 if our defense was league average at preventing goals on high danger chances)

 

I think missing Kucherov for the entire regular season and Stamkos for 30% of the season can explain the decrease in their offense. It's like taking Petey and Miller out of our line up and expecting the team to produce at the same rate as Calgary. 

 

8. Again I think you are underselling the effect Kuch and Stammer have on Tampa's offence and generating chances. In 2019-2020, they accounted for roughly 23% of all their forwards regular season points. Guess who had a similar % portion of the offence on our end? Petey + Miller. 

 

9. I'm of the opinion that it is the opposite. The bottom 6 is weighing down the roster in terms of offensive production and is not contributing enough defensively for what they are being paid.

 

 

image.png.bf516768b043170e9c1b0155912ee842.png

image.png.bb9646088d15a93ff694c1042b381491.png

 

Brief Explanation and Updated Explanation

 

Game Score is a linear weight model with the weights for each stat within it being derived according to the frequency of goals occurring from them and are as such:

Goals: 0.75
Primary Assists: 0.7
Secondary Assists: 0.55
Shots: 0.075
Blocks: 0.05
Penalty Differential: 0.15
Faceoff Differential: 0.01
5-on-5 Corsi Differential: 0.05
5-on-5 Goal Differential: 0.15

 

 

You just described our rope a dope playoff series against Vegas haha. and basically our team. 

 

I agree, but I think we should not neglect that they made the Stanley Cup Final in 2015 and made the conference finals in 2011. They rebounded quicker than we did after 2011 and retooled twice to win a cup. I don't think Tampa is a comparison that will make our situation look any more favorable. They are the class of the NHL along with the Avalanche. 

 

 

 

I agree to an extent. I will lay out of my cards here.

 

If Benning shows restraint in not committing himself to ill advised aggressive long term signings (ala OEL, Barrie), inefficient buyouts,  and focuses instead on cheaper depth signings to ride out 2022 and the Loui Eriksson/Luongo cap to maximize our capspace for 2023. I will go a step further and say next year fans should not be too concerned about a losing record and should not be calling for anyone's head.

 

The focus here is to be patient for one more year and ride out the cap troubles. I would not expect, nor want, JB to pursue moves that will handicap this team long term or mortgage the future unnecessarily in the name of making the playoffs for a one and done like in 2020.

 

IF he makes moves congruent to that. I'm willing to give him a pass on the team's performance next year as the cap situation dictates that we just ignore next year and focus on 2022 and beyond. I would not be on the #firebenning train because he shows he's willing to think ahead past making playoffs at all costs.

 

likewise if Benning goes all in again for playoffs at all costs like he did in 2020, you bet I'll be holding him accountable for the season's results!

 

I'd just like to see management show some restraint and forethought here. It's the same patience I wish they practiced in 2016 and 2019. 

 

The frustration isn't with losing. It's just the continual repeating of avoidable, unforced errors in UFA, the cap management and player management that has handicapped the team and held it back from what it can truly accomplish. I fear we are wasting Bo's prime here. 

 

Appreciate it. I love it when I get to geek out on stats! Again, there's nothing wrong with shedding a positive light on the team or believing. I cheer for the team. Just understand that some of us are frustrated by the moves done prior to this season and in past seasons. 


As the saying goes, Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. I don't think this team is beyond redemption or is doomed to fail, but the main concern is that it's not easy to buy that the same management group who has made mistakes in free agency with cap space and roster construction the last seven years is suddenly going to change his spots.

 

10. I don't expect you to agree with me, but at least I hope you can understand why I am concerned that the mgmt group that thought Eriksson was worth $6 mil in 2016, Gudbranson, Beagle, Roussel was worth a collective $10 mil in 2018, Myers and Ferland were worth a collective $9.5 mil in 2019, and Holtby and Jake were worth $7.8 mil in 2020, will now have $20 mil to work with the next two offseasons that will set the course of the team for the next decade. I really want this leopard to change his spots. 

 

Again, I would love for you to be right. Maybe Myers evolves into a 60pt defensemen next year who knows? At the end of the day, we can talk hope and potential till we are blue in the face.

 

It will need to translates into tangible results that will make all the aforementioned stats we just referenced look prettier. (Fwiw, I do agree with you that our offense will improve, just going by luck and conversion rates alone, but the bigger question is whether our defense can take the next step.)

 

Oooookay here we go!

So I'm going to put a bolded # next to each and every point that I am responding to in the quote and below, my responses will be bolded and numbered to match each response.

 

1. You haven't met @wallstreetamigo yet. He does not understand or believe how much COVID hurt us. 

 

2. When I spoke of this season not being a fair season to gauge success or failure, it was meant as in not judging based on standings. There are teams that probably shouldnt have made it in and teams that probably should have. The underlying stats shouldn't necessarily be 'invalidated' because despite the standings, they can tell a different story for next year. Vancouver's underlying stats based on naturalstattrick dont show to be very good, but I firmly believe that this team is much better than what that shows, based on the fact we went through absolute hell this season. Which is frustrating because we can't exactly compare our season or statistics to any team in the league on an even level. Like no one else came close to the crap schedule we went through or being forced back into action relatively soon after 'recovering' from the P1variant. So really, it all may look bad to the eye, but given the things we dealt with, you would have to assume it will improve. The question is, how much? We obviously won't get our answer until the end of next season. But for now I want to stay hopeful and optimistic.

 

I'll do a comparison between Dallas and Nashville a team with hurdles versus a team without the same issues. Dallas had similar hurdles as Vancouver, Dallas was missing Seguin and had a late start to the season and a 9 day pause midway. They did not get hit by COVID like Vancouver, but they were stopped for 9 days and missing a star player. 

Then I will do a comparison of teams that all had a fair season. Calgary vs Winnipeg vs Edmonton. The outcomes and the advanced stats that go against what SHOULD have happened.

 

Before I proceed to show my comparison, I want to say that I am not comparing Vancouver to Dallas, just the hurdles and the end results.

 

 

I am going to use naturalstattrick like you suggested to gather my information and present it. I am a little disappointed in how Hockey-references calculations gave somewhat misleading stats. In terms of where Vancouver appeared to be with some of the advanced stats, I just wish I knew how NST versus HR break their numbers down.

 

 

Team SF SA SF% xGF xGA xGF% SCF SCA SCF% HDCF HDCA HDCF% HDGF HDGA HDGF%
DAL 1355 1161 53.86 99.82 84.85 54.05 1186 994 54.4 478 382 55.58 66 51 56.41
  8th 2nd 5th 11th 3rd 3rd 9th 3rd 4th 7th 3rd 4th 11th 4/5split 6th
  NSH 1346 1400 49.02 96.36 98.12 49.55 1121 1103 50.4 452 441 50.62 57 51 52.78
  10th 25th 15th 21st 13th 13th 17th 13th 15th 14th 13th 13th 20th 4/5split 11th
                               
                               
                               
                               
CGY 1311 1227 51.65 99.5 85.42 53.81 1177 1027 53.4 454 389 53.86 55 59 48.25
  15TH 5TH 10TH 12TH 4TH 6TH 10TH 4TH 8TH 12TH 5TH 7TH 23RD T-12TH 20TH
WPG 1274 1332 48.89 95.16 109.55 46.48 1155 1254 47.95 420 521 44.63 68 59 53.54
  23RD 19TH 16TH 24TH 26TH 23RD 13TH 28TH 21ST 24TH 27TH 28TH 8TH T-12TH 10TH
EDM 1126 1229 48.52 100.5 101.89 49.66 1126 1229 47.81 455 459 49.78 53 59 47.32
  16th 24th 19th 9th 17th 19th 16th 24th 22nd 11th 17th 19th 25th T-12TH 21ST

 

As you can see Dallas was clearly a top team in the league when you break down the advanced stats. But regardless of how good they were in almost every category, a team who was middle of the league secured a playoff spot in the same division and Dallas was booking tee times. 

Yes Dallas had much much more impressive stats than Vancouver when you break it down. However we will not know until next season just how different this team would have been when all 32 teams have the same schedule and rest. In the final 19 games of Vancouver's season, they still played 4-9 more games than any other team. Our schedule and COVID situation really hampered our chances to be strong defensively, but the positive way I looked at it was that despite the scores, despite the standings and all that, Vancouver was pushing for chances FOR. My goal with my original post was to shed some positive light and bring hope to the fans that next season will be a much better season for the Canucks.

 

Now look at Calgary, they were mid to top tier team in a handful of advanced statistics. Calgary, Winnipeg and Edmonton had fairly equal seasons, yet a team who was ranking mid to top tier in advanced statistics AND had a players only meeting early on... Missed the post season and two teams who were towards the bottom in a lot of area's made the post season. 

Winnipeg was near the bottom with Vancouver in a lot of area's and we had a much rougher season..... Somehow they made it in and swept the Coilers.

 

IF We were somehow able to adjust the season for each and every single team in the league and simulate how their season would have went if they lost a star player for over half the season, had the absolute worst scheduling, the most amount of condensed games, least amount of rest and practice and be hit with the COVID variant, how many of those teams would replicate the same season with the same results/advanced statistics. The answer would be none of them would, they would all finish lower and some might miss the playoffs due to it.

 

 

3. It's not that I underestimate the loss of Stamkos and Kucherov and the combined overlap they were out for. We also lost a top player for a substantial amount of time and we managed to do okay up until COVID. DAL and TBL are in the same division that is better defensively, Dallas was also missing Seguin for 53 games and Radulov for 45 games. Radulov and Seguin are not the same level as Kucherov and Stamkos, however they are 2 top players in their lineup.

So before I extract information from NST in theory, a much less potent Dallas Stars, without their 2 stars, should be significantly lower than each team in the tight-knit division.

 

Within the Central division

Team   xGF   SCF   HDCF   SCSH%
CAR 1st 117.09 1st 1262 1st 547 8th 11.64
FLA 2nd 106.13 4th 1166 4th 449 6th 12.05
TBL 4th 98.57 2nd 1195 5th 448 4th 12.77
NSH 5th 96.36 5th 1121 3rd 452 3rd 12.36
DAL 3rd 99.82 3rd 1186 2nd 478 1st 13.34
CHI 7th 91.06 6th 1070 6th 409 2nd 12.95
DET 8th 85.44 8th 969 8th 390 5th 12.15
CBJ 6th 92.23 7th 1022 7th 392 7th 11.85

 

Now lets compare those numbers to the Canadian Division

 

Team   xGF   SCF   HDCF   SCSH%
TOR 1st 113.2 1st 1390 1st 553 6th 13.68
EDM 2nd 100.5 6th 1126 T-3rd 455 2nd 14.85
WPG 7th 95.16 5th 1155 5th 420 1st 15.51
MTL 3rd 100.16 2nd 1290 2nd 468 7th 12.87
CGY 4th 99.5 3rd 1177 3rd 454 5th 13.46
OTT 5th 97.16 4th 1157 T-3rd 455 4th 13.72
VAN 6th 96.61 7th 1083 4th 424 3rd 14.06

 

Now if you average out each divisions xGF SCF HDCF and SCSH% it looks like this

Division xGF SCF HDCF SCSH%
Central 98.3 1123.8 395.6 12.39%
Canadian 100.4 1196.8 461.2 14.02%

 

The Canadian division looks to be like a much more high flying defenceless division when you average out the division numbers. Problem is CBJ, DET and CHI all drastically effect the average of the division. As you can see they have some of the lowest scoring teams and some of the highest scoring teams in the league. 

So the crappy teams inflate the xGF and xGA as you have a feast or famine division. 

The thing about the Canadian division which is unlike any other division is you could arguably swap any team outside the playoffs with almost any team inside the playoffs. They are all very evenly matched, Ottawa became one of the toughest teams to beat down the stretch and they had decently impressive stats. Winnipeg and Edmonton were terrible on the advanced charts, but secured a playoff spot. 

You could not change CBJ, DET or CHI with any of the teams in the playoffs, MAYBE just MAYBE Nashville, but thats because Nashville also should have been golfing and Dallas probably should have been extending their season. 

In the Honda West Division you have LAK, SJS, ARZ, ANA that are all absolutely garbage and it is once again a feast or famine scenario. Top teams eat well, bottom teams starve.

in the MassMutual East Division its NJD, PHI and BUFF that are your catastrophies. However I will argue that PHI (based on advanced stats) are much better than where the finished their season, NFC what happened there.

 

I would say 5/7 Canadian teams could have been in a playoff spot. Vancouver had a very unlucky season, one which we will never repeat again (No mid season plague) Ottawa was not a playoff team, but they certainly improved and became a decent team in the end. 

 

In almost every other division you can look at the teams at the start of the year and say yea, those 4 are the ones going to the playoffs this year BASED on the divisional alignment/ 4 mini seasons.

 

Also when it comes to tighter defensive structures in the Central Division compared to the Canadian division

CANADIAN DIV Shot attempts Blocks Thru% Shots
VAN 2965 805 53.97% 1629
TOR 3124 708 48.10% 1751
EDM 3023 801 53.78% 1674
CGY 3144 677 52.77% 1689
OTT 3036 807 50.41% 1663
MTL 3261 684 50.71% 1746
WPG 2991 767 54.27% 1661
AVG 3039.14 749.9 52% 1687.6
CENTRAL DIV        
TBL 2973 645 56.27% 1692
FLA 3262 617 58.04% 1954
CAR 3316 658 54.00% 1794
NSH 3012 736 56.27% 1679
DAL 3122 721 54.52% 1699
DET 2655 720 57.32% 1528
CBJ 2785 789 58.46% 1625
CHI 2785 776 58.46% 1635
AVG 2988.75 707 56.67% 1700.8

 

I calculated this myself off of hockey-reference by adding the total SaTT from each and every player, each shot from each player and then took every players Thru% and divided it by the number of players on the roster to give the average. 

 

Carolina has 661 more shots than Detroit, the biggest shot spread in the Canadian division is 296. The Central division gets the average of 56.67% of their shots through and teams collectively blocked an average of 707.75 shots. 8 Central teams blocked a total of 413 more shots than 7 Canadian teams. Only the Western Division blocked more shots than our div. So I would have to give the tighter d-zone edge to the Canadian div compared to the Central div. When there are 3 exceptionally bad teams in a division of 4 exceptionally strong teams and one good team all stats are going to be either extremely inflated or deflated due to difference of competition level between the top teams and the bottom teams. 

 

6.  Part of the reason and intent behind my comparison of teams like Edmonton is they have a very questionable future ahead with 25% of the Salary cap being tied up in 2 players for quite a long time. Is their future going to benefit or will it be hindered? They already were one of the lowest SCF generating teams yet had the two best players in the league. Vancouver, is more of a team than a one or two man show. With tired legs, injuries and our conditioning being thrown out of whack mid-season, we still pushed for chances. Which to me despite the outcome of the season, the divisional alignments or not, shows that perhaps our systems are effective. With tired bodies and missing players we generated chances. This year is just a hard one to fully buy into the advanced stats and are moreso to be taken with a grain of salt. Strictly due to the fact one team was seriously effected by an illness. It hard to compare them. Im reading advanced for the Canucks with optimism and hope, because I know they are better than how the season went and they will not go through the same BS scheduling as this year.

 

7. Well if we go off history, we are looking at how many seasons? If its during the Benning tenure, sure it has been low. But to be fair to Benning the first 4 years were failed retool years and the last 3 have been rebuild years. So its not like we had GOOD teams the whole time and have just sucked. We had 4 years of old players in the twilight of their careers. The last 3 has been the aches and pains of a rebuild however our rebuild is on lightyears ahead of where most rebuilds are in the 3rd year. To think last year was our 2nd year of a rebuild and we had a 100.4 PDO which isnt too bad. Considering a contending team like VGK had a 99.0 PDO last season. Then in our 3rd season of the rebuild we have this f***ed up season <_<

 

8. Like I said in my OP if we were to have lost Petey and NOT get COVID, We likely would have had a good chance at playoffs. OR if we HAD Petey and GOT COVID we still probably would have had a good chance at making the playoffs. It's not like TBL are short on talent, they are extremely stacked so they SHOULD be able to overcome an injury to a star player or 2 and should at least win 50-60% of their games over the  Stammer/Kuch injury overlap. Especially when they have games against teams like DET, CHI, CBJ. Those are games they probably should win. Games against the rest of division they still have a decent chance to win. They had star players injured but still had a chance to feast from time to time on the lower seeded teams. For the most part, Vancouver faced rested teams who weren't battling injuries. 

Now where I see Vancouver compared to the league is closer to the middle of the league rather than the bottom. We are a top 6 and top 4 dman away from being a contender. 

 

9. I understand and agree our bottom 6 doesn't provide much threat to opponents. However is it really fair to compare TBLs 3rd and 4th lines to ours? or our 3/4 lines to most teams in the league? We have had a revolving door of players in the bottom 6. The bottom 6 has been unstable largely due to injuries.

The 6 players you picked for Vancouver combined for 199/336 GP compared to TBLs bottom 6 who played 310/336GP 92% of the season. With their injuries to Stamkos and Kucherov, the 3rd line will see more opportunities in the game that they likely wouldnt see if TBL was healthy in the top 6. But that is not to discredit how good their bottom 6 actually is. We definitely do need a little more help in the bottom 6 for sure, but we also just need to stay healthy for the love of god. 

 

Man games lost this season broken down for each team fwd/d/g and total.

TEAM MGL-F MGL-D MGL-G MGL TEAM MGL-F MGL-D MGL-G MGL
CAR 110 13 37 160 WSH 47 75 9 131
FLA 66 80 6 152 PIT 151 85 9 245
TBL 119 39 3 161 NYI 68 7 1 76
NSH 150 143 8 301 BOS 103 130 28 261
DAL 160 82 58 300 NYR 61 49 10 120
CHI 291 44 8 343 PHI 102 30 14 146
CBJ 120 23 5 148 NJD 84 43 14 141
DET 162 21 18 201 BUF 159 90 61 310
                   
COL 105 141 67 313 TOR 101 19 49 169
VGK 87 41 16 144 WPG 107 50 1 158
MIN 140 33 26 199 EDM 99 126 33 258
STL 176 99 0 275 MTL 62 32 19 113
ARZ 53 37 51 141 CGY 42 9 5 56
SJS 67 25 2 94 OTT 94 29 60 183
LAK 93 45 12 150 VAN 248 28 2 278
ANA 140 109 10 259          

 

I kept the divisions intact to show how each teams health was compared to the rest of their division. Vancouver struggled immensely to stay healthy upfront. It was a very tough season on us as well as other teams. Some teams were pretty banged up and made it into the playoffs, but they also have the luxury of having bottom feeding teams to help mitigate the loss of players. Could you imagine how bad our season could have been if our D was banged up?? God that is a terrible to think of just how much worse it could have gone.

 

10. I think we all have to agree that at the time of the 30g Eriksson signing, we all were excited at the potential of Eriksson and the Sedins re-uniting that international chemistry. In Eriksson's first 2 seasons he sustained 2 injuries and missed 17 games in his first season and 32 games the following season. Playing 70% of the total GP in his first 2 seasons. At the end of the 2017-18, 2/3 of Erikssons line retired and the rebuild began. Is it fair to hate on a guy who was injured a few times and a couple more ticks on father times clock went by and the top line is gone. I don't think management saw the Sedins retiring at the age of 37, I believe they were expecting 2-3 more years out of them. I wouldn't call it a 'bad' signing, it was more of a very unlucky signing. Eriksson DID just put up 30g, its not like he signed a player who was trending downward. He signed a player who was trending upward AND there was chemistry between LE and the Sedins. So mathematically it was a sensible signing that just soured unfortunately. It wasn't a case of JB going out and throwing money at anyone in particular, there was deep thought into it and I believe there may have even been conversations with the Sedins about their thoughts on bringing LE in.

Gudbranson was also at the time a very good targeted acquisition, I broke this down awhile back and defended the reason why he was signed and how the $ was fairly justifiable. Guddy had a good regular season with FLA and in the playoffs he became THEE guy in the playoffs for FLA. He was an absolute MONSTER for them in their playoff series. PLUS Gudbranson was still young. We needed to get young and have a dman that could grow with the organization.

The Sutter signing was also a well targeted signing at the time. Fresh off a 21g campaign, 26years of age and a strong C. We needed to get deeper down the middle.  The market is what sets the value, not the GM. Sutter has played 275/453 games for Vancouver since the day he signed. There was no prior injury history for Sutter and in his first season he suffered a major injury and played 20/82games. The following season he played 81 games put up 17g and 17a which was great to see that from your 2nd and 3rd line, sorta like how Gourde has put up those numbers on the 3rd line for TBL..... If only we had 2 legit top lines...

As for the Beagle, Roussel signings..... We signed these guys during a rebuild and, how else do you entice a player to come and waste a few years of their career at trying to win a cup. Fortunately Beagle had already won a cup, but for Roussel he's still chasing the dream. They were both very effective 4th liners in the league for quite some time. Neither have been able to stay healthy since they arrived. Roussel pleasantly surprised us in his first year with 9g 22a 31pts in 65 gp..... However he was injured like usual Canuck UFA signings in their debut year. He hasn't been able to stay healthy since he signed. However he has a .34ppg. Not bad on your 4th line. He was producing .42ppg in the first 2 seasons. 44pts in 106 games. 

 

We needed to sign vets to help stabilize foundational structure (Horvat, Boeser, Hughes, EP)

Benning has unfortunately been very unlucky with the health of his UFA signings... There is something in the water in Vancouver.

 

Fans are so used to Benning throwing contracts at vet after vet after vet and locking them up for 3-5 years in the past and how it hasn't ever made us a winner. However the leopard has changed his spots, if Benning continued his trend in past years, we would have signed 1 or 2 of Toffoli, Tanev and Markstrom, which would have helped make us better losers.... Instead of making us winners. Letting them walk is a sign of change in direction for this franchise, we are no longer looking for place holders or 30 year old vets on the inevitable downward swing. We are reserving our budget for the future. Bennings tendencies are not the same as they have been in the past. In our playoff run, we EARNED a playoff spot by winning the play-in round and then we beat the defending champs in 6 games where we met VGK who handled us like it was childsplay. If we were to resign Toffoli, we still have the same top 6 that was rather ineffective in that series. He cut his losses and moved on. It's time for us a fanbase to recognize there are signs of change in managements previous habits and that this team is heading in a better direction, most rebuilds take 5-7 years to compete. Ours was competing in 2 seasons, this season is a one-off. Deadmonton had been getting nowhere for the last 10 years, TBL took 11 years to win a cup since they drafted Stamkos, WSH took 12 years since Ovi... It's a long road, but we have pieces in place, we just need some more NHL experience for this roster and a couple key pieces at the right time. 

 

I hope that I am understanding these advanced statistics correctly and that the numbers I'm taking from the sites make sense. I primarily used NST. But some of the numbers between NST, HR and Moneypuck all seem to have different calculations and different numbers for stats. So I am a little unsure of which to trust. Anyways, I really appreciated your response and I hope that perhaps my perspective on things may help influence a positive sense of an improved year next year in all area's. I strongly believe this team is going to be out to prove everyone wrong next season. All we need is a bit of puck luck and a healthy top 6. I had a lot of fun reading your post and taking the information you supplied and checking out some of the other advanced statistics sites out there. 

Edited by knucklehead91
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