Canucks vs the League. Where do we fit?

[knucklehead91]

17 hours ago, DSVII said:

Haha wow, I take a few days off to work and I come back to a lot of text hehe. I did say I'll leave the last word for you in here so just a few comments and I'll proceed to the next thread.

 

Yeah that was the nub of it. Management was serving two masters here (rebuild + 'compete for playoff spot') and it's been mixed results here. 

Haha sorry, I've been really bored without the Canucks on TV and take more of an interest in talking about the Canucks than I do watching other teams.. Not saying that I'm not watching every single game though haha. 

 

Well I'd like to say that the two headed dragon has been slain and the choices and moves are more so without influence or pressure. However there is still quite a bit of pressure from the fan base.... Flying banners etc and protesting outside the arena. It's gotta be a real tough position to be in for JB and any GM of a Canadian team. I'm sure there are decisions that are impulsive because of the outside pressure to win and there being very little patience from fans.

 

17 hours ago, DSVII said:

I gave TG a pass in his first few seasons here, but the continuing trend of his teams being at the bottom of the league for being outshot and out-chanced is coloring me a bit more skeptical here. How much worse would our teams have looked if Markstrom and Demko did not provide vezina quality goaltending each night?

I agree and feel the same way about giving Green a pass the first few years. The first year was the end of the Sedin era and was a pretty tough year to watch... Very little youth to support the team and not enough players from the previous regime's drafting as quality prospects ready to step in. So that's an easy pass for Green for sure. 

His second season was the start of the dark times.. No Sedins.... No idea what the hell that team was going to look like without those 2 after 17 years with the team and a large portion of their time with the team being the go-to guys. So yea, his second season is obviously a pass as well, we are at the start of a rebuild. And with a rebuilding team, being outshot and outchanced is to be expected. His 3rd year behind the bench was a fun and exciting year and we put ourselves in a spot to make a playoff appearance. Not something you typically see from a rebuilding team. Look at how miserable it was to be Edmonton and still is to be Buffalo. I'd say TG got as much out of his roster as possible, won 2 rounds and took VGK to a game 7. Sure the VGK series was quite tilted, but regardless he did win 2 rounds. We just weren't ready to compete with a team like VGK. Nonetheless had Marky not been injured and Demko played lights out, we may have found ourselves in a bit of a conundrum with Marky's extension and another goaltender controversy yet again. 

You gotta remind yourself, this team was in the beginning stages of a rebuild. A rebuild aint supposed to be pretty. 

Then we have this year to add to Greeners resumé. 

 

Greens first 3 years

102-103-28  .498

Greens full 4 years

125-132-32 .488

Green through the rebuild (2018-19 to current)

94-92-21 .510

FIrst 2 years of the rebuild not including this season

71-63-17 .526

I'd like to see what he can do on the other side of a rebuild.

This upcoming season is fair game to evaluate Green, by the final year of his 2 year extension the verdict will be out. At that point, either he has proved himself or he is out the door. After that JB is under the microscope.

 

18 hours ago, DSVII said:Haha wow, I take a few days off to work and I come back to a lot of text hehe. I did say I'll leave the last word for you in here so just a few comments and I'll proceed to the next thread.

I think this remains to be seen. We've yet to see what future contracts he's going to hand out in preparation for the competitive phase of this core (next 1-2 yrs). Is next year supposed to be competitive or not? that's another thing lost in the messaging here.

Totally agree that from here on out contracts handed out will be fair to criticize, we are in a different time than the past. We aren't retooling and we no longer need place holders. It also comes down to timing of contract extensions or player acquisitions. 

I can say with a pretty strong feeling, next season we WILL be competitive. Especially when you look at the division we are in. There are some weak teams and we should be one of the top 4 teams in the division and ultimately a playoff team. I dont see LAK, ANA, SJS as a threat. We have no idea how the Kraken will be, CGY and EDM are 2 teams we can fight with for sure. VGK is most likely going to be the top team in the division, unless the Kraken pull a Vegas and stomp there way around the league. Regardless I believe next season will have lots to look forward to.

19 hours ago, DSVII said:

I like to rag on Roussel, Beagle, Gagner, Vanek a lot, but at the time they were signed and at the amount and term we paid them, management was clearly expecting them to be more than just placeholders. 

 

If you traded away your 1st and 2nd to load up on players like Miller and Toffoli, making a splash in playoffs should be an expectation, not a surprise.

 

That is not how I would describe Toffoli though. Watching the 2014 run, he drove the play and offense more than Pearson on that 70's line, and he's still playing his best hockey. His type of game doesn't age as badly as say a Roussel, or Ferland.

 

Benning delivered a quality top 6 player right into the hands of a divisional rival, And a top six player that wanted to stay here. I don't think you're strengthening JB's case here by saying letting him walk is all part of the plan.

 

Again, the goal was to keep any combination of Toffoli, Tanev or Markstrom. Not all of them. You win cups with guys like Toffoli. Otherwise why did JB decide to commit to another middle aged vet like Pearson?

 

Roussel and Beagle were meant to be placeholders. 3-4 year deals in a rebuild are enough time to let prospects develop in a safe environment, rather than being thrown into the show and expected to do it all. They can develop overseas, in the minors or be mentored and sheltered in the NHL. Sorta like Beagle and Sutter with Gaudette. 

Vrbata, Vanek and Gagner were still part of those hailmary attempts during the Sedins final years. They had great success the first year with Vrbata, but it went south after that. Thank god it was a 2 year deal, next up was Vanek to slot in with the Sedins on a 1 year 2mil deal. Spooner was a post-sedin era signing that was meant to be a placeholder. Paying a little extra for guys that aren't in the future plans is alright when you aren't competing. We shockingly turned the ship around pretty quick after the Sedins and now these meant-to-be placeholders are looking like poor signings. The future doesn't look so dark and grim like it was in Edmonton and Buffalo for sooo long. Or even FLA, CAR, COL, TOR they all had some pretty dark times and for much longer periods of time than we have since the rebuild officially began.

 

From '05-'16 the Maple leafs made the Playoffs once in that 11 year span.

Since Edmonton lost in the Finals, they have made the playoffs 3 times in 15 years. 10 straight years of missing the post-season after losing in the cup finals.

Buffalo has missed the post season 10 straight years and been a lottery team averaging 27 wins a season with no hope in sight

In 27 years FLA has made the post season 7 times.... Since the '00-'01 season they have made the playoffs... 4 times.. 3 times in the last 9 years. 

Colorado had a 7 year stretch where they made the playoffs once. 

 

Every time you have a chance to make the playoffs, you make a move at the deadline. That move is either enough to put you over the top or not. Regardless you HAVE to make a move, if you don't the teams around you improve while you stay stagnant. We were having a good season last year and Benning saw that playoffs were becoming a reality, he made a move to get Toffoli just like every team does that is heading to the playoffs, they pay the price to try and win. Toffoli was unfortunately not enough to give us a hope in hell to beat VGK. Flat cap, Pearson already under contract, Petey, Hughes, Demko extensions still to be worked out, Toffoli, Tanev and Marky are last priority. JB didn't hand over Toffoli, he walked and chose to sign with MTL quite quickly into Free Agency. That's why Pearson is here and Toffoli isnt. Had Pearson AND Toffoli been UFA's at the same time, it would be the other way around. Or if Pearson was a UFA and Toffoli was under contract, they are letting Pearson go. Besides, we aren't in ready to win it all, that is when we should sign/extend our "Toffoli"

 

As for Toffoli driving the play, he has looked more like a finisher than a driver. He has lost a step in his speed and he isn't quite blowing by guys like he did in the '70's line era of LAK. His goals are in tight and off the set up. He still has a wicked shot, but his speed is what made him so good, its just not quite the same. 

 

Toffoli reaped the rewards of some nice set up plays, many lucky deflections and bad give aways and goalie's letting in some weak ones. Thats not to discredit his ability to finish, but he had some very lucky breaks this season. His speed was hardly a factor in any of his goals.

 

Kudos to Tofu for burying his chances though.

21 hours ago, DSVII said:

Yep that's fine. Although blocking IS limiting a scoring chance, it is inversely correlated to possession though no? You mention the West has a lot of teams weaker than us, but they have the most blocks. So they play a tighter defense than the North?

 

I don't disagree that our depth sucks more than Tampas (despite paying a lot for them...) but again, proportionally, Petey and Miller make up the same % of the pie in our offensive points as Kucherov and Stammer did. (23%). That means the rest of the team was still scoring for the other 77% (Bo, Boeser, Edler, etc...) I think there's a case that it is comparable.

 

 

My optimism for next season is very dependent on how we structure the team this offseason rather than how we performed in the a division format that will never exist again. Big offseason where we have to reshape the defense and set the tone for this core in its competitive window.

 

You aren't wrong that shot blocking is a sign of poor possession. Which is why I included shots for and shots against to show that Canucks were on par with the rest of the division for SF and all teams in the Canadian division were within a couple hundred shots, SAT and blocks. Thru% was lower than other divisions as well.

Other divisions there was a massive gap between SF SAT Thru% and BLKs I think there was like a 600 SAT between Florida and CBJ or something like that. It was substantial. 

Higher volume of shots = higher volume of blocks

 

In terms of offence VAN doesn't have nearly as much scoring potential as TBL

 

Now what is bigger. % or portion?

50% of a cup cake or 23% of a cake. 

Without Kucherov all season and Stammer for 19 games, they still racked up 180 goals. We missed Miller for 3 games and Petey for 30 and we came up 32 goals shorter. 

Despite the % being the same, the portions aren't. They can go without Kucherov as they proved in the regular season and still win. We went .500 without Pettersson. 

Say its a regular 82game season, TBL scores 300 goals. 23% of that is Kucherov and Stamkos

VAN scored 200 goals 23% Miller and Petey. 

23% of 200 is 46 goals. Leaving the team to score 154. 1.88GF

23% of 300 is 69 goals. Leaving the team to score 231. 2.82GF

 

Stamkos and Kucherov increase their chance to win exponentially. But they can manage just fine without them.

Petey and Miller help us keep up with the score of the game. Even with the same % its not the same serving. 

 

Not many teams in the league are going to win a lot of games scoring less than 2 goals. But a fair chunk of teams can win games scoring 2-3.

 

I completely agree that this off-season is going to be crucial for fans faith in management and the outlook of the future. All I can say is next year's division should see the Vancouver Canucks in a playoff spot. I just hope there aren't a bunch of knee-jerk reaction trades/signings this off-season to make up for how poorly this season went.

 

22 hours ago, DSVII said:

 

Haha for sure! In fact, look forward to a post i'm working on right now. I'm going through the last decade or so of drafts to see how JB stacks up against the league in terms of drafting. Some very interesting insights there too!

 

 I actually did a bunch of research on JB's drafting and compared it to previous regime's drafting. Which showed JB is one of the best GMs we've ever had when it comes to drafting. I did a small comparison of JB's drafting to a few other teams, but not to the rest of the league.

 

I'm looking very forward to what you will have to show!

 

Cheers!