Jump to content
The Official Site of the Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Community

With the Leafs loss to the Habs, guys like Rick Dhaliwal,Thomas Drance, JD Burke, 650 Sportsnet, and HF Canucks have received VERY huge blows

Rate this topic


Recommended Posts

Leafs have fallen into the same trap that Edmonton did, which is to have an abnormal amount of cap tied up in a small amount of top players. 

 

This means the rest of the team dividing the remainder is quite simply not very good, and this model relies on said top players to produce. Otherwise, you lose.

 

In addition to this construction issue, the Havs had far superior goaltending and were by far the more physical team - even *with* Dubas having tried to fix the lack of grit.

 

All things considered, if I was a hockey journalist or a betting man, I would have believed that Toronto would win easily as well. But when you have average goaltending and your two top guys not scoring, strange things happen.

  • Hydration 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Alain Vigneault said:

The plan is fine, it's the execution that has not been good.

 

As I already identified, many other teams like Tampa Bay, Colorado, Carolina employ an analytics-based approach like Toronto does.  Seems to be working thus far for them.

Hope this helps.

And then there are teams like Arizona who exclusively used analytics to build their team that have utterly failed.

 

Hardly a glowing testament to analyticz.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kloubek said:

Leafs have fallen into the same trap that Edmonton did, which is to have an abnormal amount of cap tied up in a small amount of top players. 

 

This means the rest of the team dividing the remainder is quite simply not very good, and this model relies on said top players to produce. Otherwise, you lose.

 

In addition to this construction issue, the Havs had far superior goaltending and were by far the more physical team - even *with* Dubas having tried to fix the lack of grit.

 

All things considered, if I was a hockey journalist or a betting man, I would have believed that Toronto would win easily as well. But when you have average goaltending and your two top guys not scoring, strange things happen.

I disagree. I think most hockey fans, including some jaded Leaf fans, could've predicted (or at least hoped) for a collapse. And then it happened. Again. This in turn reinforces the bias that people had over the Leafs. Meanwhile, the media will continue to spin this story as a development period, even though this is a continual issue for many years. Edmonton popularly called their retool plan as an 'oil change'. And they've been changing the oil many times. Many times. I think it's also annoying that the media has continually propped Toronto as the model team to look at when building a team, despite the lack of postseason success.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Provost said:

I am happy the Leafs lost.

 

At the same time, I think it is a huge logical mistake to somehow suggest that because they lost, we are somehow better?  That seems to be the idea here.  Those things aren’t connected at all.

 

Our team is worse than the Leafs right now.

 

I would rather have our team going forward than theirs.  Folks defend Benning by saying the pandemic and flat cap completely destroyed all his plans.

 

There probably isn’t a team worse off due to an ongoing flat cap for an expected several more years than Toronto is.  They signed their big players to huge contracts assuming that cap inflation would make them better deals down the road.  That isn’t just a Toronto thing, all teams do it... but Toronto just happened to do it more and at the wrong time.  Those contracts instead of getting better over time are going to stay overpaid and badly effect how they can build out the rest of their roster.  They aren’t always going to have a bunch of veterans come in and rescue them by playing for low dollars.

 

In our situation, our top guys are coming up for contracts during the worst economic conditions the NHL is likely to be in.  Everyone expects there will be an effectively flat cap for the next 3-5 years.  Presumably we will be able to negotiate extensions under those new realities.  Instead of paying $10 million and $8 million respectively for Petterson and Hughes, we are probably going to be more like $7-7.5 and $6-6.5 (hopefully for longer than a 3 year bridge term). The flexibility that will give us moving forward will be immense IF those two players continue to develop.

Agreed.   But don't think we are that far away from them either and for sure enjoy the fact we actually won a playoff series against the leagues best the year before.   TO isn't really that good.   We've  seen it haven't we this regular season?  They won one game against us where we badly outplayed them.   Then came in after Covid and beat them twice in a row.    When Mathews says this is a game of inches - have to agree on that.   We aren't that much worse then they are, even with 12 million sitting on the bench.    Sure our cap will shed and at the same time be re-distrusted.    

 

Also like you and like me and everyone else on this site,  nobody really can predict the future.    JB never does what anyone thinks he's going to do.  Autistic genuis maybe.   Or just a fool.   I don't know.   But as long as he keeps driving them out of the park at the draft that's good enough for me.   This league has only a few great teams at the moment.  And the worst teams really aren't that bad either.   Cap world.  

  • Hydration 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Provost said:

I am happy the Leafs lost.

 

At the same time, I think it is a huge logical mistake to somehow suggest that because they lost, we are somehow better?  That seems to be the idea here.  Those things aren’t connected at all.

 

Our team is worse than the Leafs right now.

 

I would rather have our team going forward than theirs.  Folks defend Benning by saying the pandemic and flat cap completely destroyed all his plans.

 

There probably isn’t a team worse off due to an ongoing flat cap for an expected several more years than Toronto is.  They signed their big players to huge contracts assuming that cap inflation would make them better deals down the road.  That isn’t just a Toronto thing, all teams do it... but Toronto just happened to do it more and at the wrong time.  Those contracts instead of getting better over time are going to stay overpaid and badly effect how they can build out the rest of their roster.  They aren’t always going to have a bunch of veterans come in and rescue them by playing for low dollars.

 

In our situation, our top guys are coming up for contracts during the worst economic conditions the NHL is likely to be in.  Everyone expects there will be an effectively flat cap for the next 3-5 years.  Presumably we will be able to negotiate extensions under those new realities.  Instead of paying $10 million and $8 million respectively for Petterson and Hughes, we are probably going to be more like $7-7.5 and $6-6.5 (hopefully for longer than a 3 year bridge term). The flexibility that will give us moving forward will be immense IF those two players continue to develop.

We are better than the media has indicated. The media has largely reinforced the pessimistic attitudes of Canuck fans, while exaggerating the successes of the Leafs. Sure, they had a great season. But the real story is how often they've had success in the playoffs?

 

Now, we can pay attention to how the media will spin this 'loss'. Ultimately there will be scapegoats, but the narrative will be to downplay the trends of other teams, while re-telling the story of the Leafs' imminent rise. This story they will tell is repeated every year.

 

Our team is not 'worse' than the leafs right now, especially with what you have said. Their bad contracts WILL (as you have said) catch up to them. Leafs also do not have a 1st round pick for this year.

Edited by Dazzle
  • Hydration 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, gurn said:

If you would rather have our team than theirs, does that not mean we are better?:unsure:

No... I think it means we have a decent chance of being better down the road.

 

There is a thing called “tense” in language that is pretty important to understand.

 

Anyone who says our team is better now is enjoying too many of those fancy cigarettes that made Tryamkin so uncomfortable.  You can measure how good teams are by pretty obvious metrics called wins and losses.

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Provost said:

No... I think it means we have a decent chance of being better down the road.

 

There is a thing called “tense” in language that is pretty important to understand.

 

Anyone who says our team is better now is enjoying too many of those fancy cigarettes that made Tryamkin so uncomfortable.  You can measure how good teams are by pretty obvious metrics called wins and losses.

So are the Habs better than the Leafs?  

  • Hydration 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

I fail to see how Toronto can still be a dangerous playoff contender. They've had numerous chances to prove this and have come up short every time. They need to trade one of their big ticket players for a legit number one defenseman to have any chance of advancing. Matthews and Marner have to actually have the cajones to show up and lead by example instead of clearing the puck over the glass every time. I think of how Bo took it to the Blues last during that playoff series. If either Matthews or Marner showed half that fire, they might very well be in a different position. If Marner stood up to hits the way Pettersson has (especially those sweet reverse hits), they'd be better off. 

I agree happily that our core players have a game that translates well in the playoffs and think we will out perform the leafs.  There have been a lot of skilled players that have taken years to adapt to the playoffs.  I’m not saying the leafs stars can’t or won’t even if I hope they don’t.

  • Hydration 2
  • Vintage 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, flat land fish said:

I agree happily that our core players have a game that translates well in the playoffs and think we will out perform the leafs.  There have been a lot of skilled players that have taken years to adapt to the playoffs.  I’m not saying the leafs stars can’t or won’t even if I hope they don’t.

One never truly knows, but I guess, from my perspective, I would have thought that Matthews and Marner would have had enough cumulative experience, especially the sting of failing to clear the first round, that they would have been able to adjust by now. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

One never truly knows, but I guess, from my perspective, I would have thought that Matthews and Marner would have had enough cumulative experience, especially the sting of failing to clear the first round, that they would have been able to adjust by now. 

The weird thing is that I think the real marshmellow of the trio Nylander, was the guy that kind of showed up.

  • Hydration 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

The weird thing is that I think the real marshmellow of the trio Nylander, was the guy that kind of showed up.

Clearly he decided that he'd had enough of being a flaky player and stepped up. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I recall how impressed I was with Marner(4,5 yrs back?) when watching their upstarts in that Washington series. TO honestly could have pulled that upset.

 

So, then they got PAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIDDDDDDDDD, & we see what happens.

 

"We can & we will" ???..Nah ahh..they DIDN'T! Incredibly poor construction of a roster. Made to pile pts in the early part of their annually, favourable sched. First few wks of this 56 gamer, we faced the Habs, Leafs or another, on bloody bxb's out our ears.

 

The league WANTED these two markets in the final-4(North). They're angling for every extra $ they can get their hands on, nowadays. NHLPA will play along, just to limit escrow-mayhem.

 

Better for us to pocket a high pick(s), & move on, planning ahead.

 

& for the Laffs & their Hogtown-faithful? Only 1 word:

 

 

 

Crestfallen

  • Hydration 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Alflives said:

So are the Habs better than the Leafs?  

Over one 7 game series they were... I certainly wouldn’t take them winning over a larger sample size.  Over a short sample size there are too many other variables at play to say who is better.... injuries, cold streaks, hot goaltenders, random puck luck, etc 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, internationalhippy said:

Since 04  Flames, Oilers, Senators, Canucks have made the finals and rebuilt again.  senators and jets and canadiens made conference finals as well before rebuilding again.  And Considering Winnipeg wasn't even there until 11, I'd consider that successful as well.  Just the laffs can't put it together with their 8 figure salaries

Great points and I think this is something that bears worth mentioning:

 

The aforementioned “pundits” have all talked about Benning’s supposed “lack of direction” and how we are still in rebuild mode SEVEN (7!) years into his regime.  As mentioned, the biggest problem that I have with those comments is that......

 

1) They assume that other teams have rebuilt much faster than us.  Show me an example?   Who?    Calgary pretty much started rebuilding in 2009.  Oilers in 2007.  Leafs in 2008.  Winnipeg/Atlanta since what?  2008? Even all/most of the elite teams that we are seeing today, whether that’s Carolina, NYI, Colorado, Florida, etc., etc, all took YEARS to rebuild, and their progression was NOT linear. Tampa Bay from 2005 onwards is also an example of how an organization can “move forward” over a large period of time even Id there are some ‘dips’ at times.   
 

2) The “pundits” still don’t understand our long term cap structure very well, and how the Canucks will be in a GOLDEN position to make some major noise starting on October 1st 2022.

 

-Horvat, Miller, Schmidt, and Demko will still be making less than 6 million AAV.

-Boeser will still be a cost controlled asset

-Hoglander, Rathbone, Dipietro, and Podkolzin will be on ELC’s.

-Juolevi will be on a bridge.

-Pettersson and Hughes will likely be on shorter term cap friendly deals as well.  
-Our 2021 1st rounder from this coming draft *MIGHT* factor into the equation in 22-23.

 

-Myers will be our only “overpriced” contract at a 6 million dollar cap hit which isn’t that terrible.  All of our “transitional” contracts such as Beagle, Eriksson, Sutter, Roussel, Baertschi, Luongo’s penalty, spooner, etc., will be gonzo.     The Canucks will have a MASSIVE opportunity to be a major player in the Summer of 2022 UFA market.   
 

Some pundits often point to the fact that Toronto has overpriced superstars while the Canucks have overpriced 4th liners and non roster players, but fail to acknowledge the fact that Toronto is in their window RIGHT NOW while the Canucks won’t be entering their window until July 1st 2022 (due to what I mentioned above).  @wallstreetamigo.

 

Toronto looks like they will be headed for both short term and long term cap complications while the Canucks will be “in the black” in 22-23.   Heck, maybe they start this process as early as this summer.


Although it likely isn’t feasible, I would use a 2nd and a 3rd or a 2nd + middle prospect as a sweetener to move Eriksson.   That freed up money should allow us to sign a solid defenseman like Adam Larsson or David Savard.

  • Like 1
  • Hydration 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

So the Canucks beat Toronto twice after missing a month of hockey with COVID. Toronto blew leads, which seems to be a theme for them this season.

Are they really that much better?

Yes they are.  You even know it is silly to take two games and extrapolate from that.

 

We were 0-2 against them last year and had a losing record against them this year.  More importantly, they have been near the top of the standings over the last few years while the Canucks have been near the bottom.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Patel Bure said:

Great points and I think this is something that bears worth mentioning:

 

The aforementioned “pundits” have all talked about Benning’s supposed “lack of direction” and how we are still in rebuild mode SEVEN (7!) years into his regime.  As mentioned, the biggest problem that I have with those comments is that......

 

1) They assume that other teams have rebuilt much faster than us.  Show me an example?   Who?    Calgary pretty much started rebuilding in 2009.  Oilers in 2007.  Leafs in 2008.  Winnipeg/Atlanta since what?  2008? Even all/most of the elite teams that we are seeing today, whether that’s Carolina, NYI, Colorado, Florida, etc., etc, all took YEARS to rebuild, and their progression was NOT linear. Tampa Bay from 2005 onwards is also an example of how an organization can “move forward” over a large period of time even Id there are some ‘dips’ at times.   
 

2) The “pundits” still don’t understand our long term cap structure very well, and how the Canucks will be in a GOLDEN position to make some major noise starting on October 1st 2022.

 

-Horvat, Miller, Schmidt, and Demko will still be making less than 6 million AAV.

-Boeser will still be a cost controlled asset

-Hoglander, Rathbone, Dipietro, and Podkolzin will be on ELC’s.

-Juolevi will be on a bridge.

-Pettersson and Hughes will likely be on shorter term cap friendly deals as well.  
-Our 2021 1st rounder from this coming draft *MIGHT* factor into the equation in 22-23.

 

-Myers will be our only “overpriced” contract at a 6 million dollar cap hit which isn’t that terrible.  All of our “transitional” contracts such as Beagle, Eriksson, Sutter, Roussel, Baertschi, Luongo’s penalty, spooner, etc., will be gonzo.     The Canucks will have a MASSIVE opportunity to be a major player in the Summer of 2022 UFA market.   
 

Some pundits often point to the fact that Toronto has overpriced superstars while the Canucks have overpriced 4th liners and non roster players, but fail to acknowledge the fact that Toronto is in their window RIGHT NOW while the Canucks won’t be entering their window until July 1st 2022 (due to what I mentioned above).  @wallstreetamigo.

 

Toronto looks like they will be headed for both short term and long term cap complications while the Canucks will be “in the black” in 22-23.   Heck, maybe they start this process as early as this summer.


Although it likely isn’t feasible, I would use a 2nd and a 3rd or a 2nd + middle prospect as a sweetener to move Eriksson.   That freed up money should allow us to sign a solid defenseman like Adam Larsson or David Savard.

Colton Parayko is a UFA come 2022. Don't waste cap space on Larsson.

  • Hydration 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Patel Bure changed the title to With the Leafs loss to the Habs, guys like Rick Dhaliwal,Thomas Drance, JD Burke, 650 Sportsnet, and HF Canucks have received VERY huge blows

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...