With the Leafs loss to the Habs, guys like Rick Dhaliwal,Thomas Drance, JD Burke, 650 Sportsnet, and HF Canucks have received VERY huge blows

[Patel Bure]

With the Leafs loss to the Habs, guys like Rick Dhaliwal, Thomas Drance, JD Burke, 650 Sportsnet, and HF Canucks have received VERY huge blows

 

It wasn’t supposed to be this way.  
 

“We” were told by “the pundits” that the Leafs, under “Shanaplan” were rebuilding the correct way and that the Canucks way was absurd.

 

”We” were told by “the pundits” that the Leafs model was a model of excellence and that it would only be a matter of time before the Leafs took the torch from the Pens, Hawks, and Kings.

 

”We” were told by “the pundits” that the Leafs signing Tavares was a move that would place them closer to the cup, and that signing Tavares to an 11 million dollar cap hit wouldn’t have unforeseen negative circumstances......because the cap always goes up!  Just like real estate and the stock market!  “How is signing an elite franchise center a bad move, lol, omg” was the response.  Although a small portion of Canuck fans tried to warn “the pundits” that signing high ticket superstar  UFA’s to premium contracts BEFORE re-upping your RFA core to cap friendly bridge deals would discourage long term “buy in” (ie taking less money to serve the greater good), and instead, would foster a “he got paid and so I want to get paid too!” mindset, “the pundits” laughed and instead, pointed to the fact that the Canucks had terrible contracts of their own (Sutter, Eriksson, Baertschi, Ferland, Roussel, Beagle, etc.).   Were the pundits right?........yes, but only half right.   The other half of the equation, is that

 

1) Despite the “horridity” of these contracts, the highest paid player on our team is still 6 million dollars.....meaning that an internal cap and/or “buy in” (ie taking less money and term short term to “serve the greater good”) was still a possibility.

 

2) Almost all of our bad/transitional contracts that aided us through the rebuild, would be off the books before the start of the 22-23 season......which would be the exact time when our window of elitehood would begin, with our core players and supporting players at very good cap hits (Boeser still a cost controlled asset + Horvat/Miller/Schmidt/Demko all making less than 6 million + Podz/Hog on ELC’s, etc.).

 

“We” were laughed at by ”The pundits when they claimed that burning a year off of Hughes and Boeser’s ELC’s for such a small amount of games made absolutely no sense, because according to them, “all cup winning teams have their best players on ELC’s” (in actuality, Pittsburgh 2009 was really the last team to do this......all other cups winning teams since then had their top players on relatively cap friendly deals and/or low AAV% relative to the teams’ salary cap + a stronger investment in depth players).

 

”We” were told by “the pundits” that the Leafs actually had built their team correctly and that the only reason why they didn’t have Better results, was because they were playing in the toughest division in the league.   Safe to say that this wasn’t the case this year eh?
 

“We” were told by “the pundits” that the Canucks haven’t had a plan since 2014, and that we are now into year 7 of our rebuild.  “The pundits” neglected to mention that the Canucks made the playoffs during Benning’s first year (thanks to bringing in Ryan Miller, Vrbata, and Bonino), missed the playoffs for 4 seasons after that, and then made the 2nd round in 2020, and have now positioned themselves for a very BIG 2022-2023.    
 

It really does make you wonder though eh?  If the Canucks are supposedly into year 7 of their rebuild “without a plan,” then what does that make Toronto?  Year 17?   Because the aforementioned “pundits” can brag all they want about Toronto’s deep team, but they still haven’t won a round since 2004!   Meanwhile, teams like Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver have all made the 2nd round Atleast once.  
 

While Edmonton and Calgary have yet to build on their 2nd round appearances, the jury is still out on Vancouver.  Despite this however, the important point I want to illuminate here is that “the pundits” shouldn’t be celebrating the fact that the Canucks missed the playoffs this year, but rather, recognize the simple truth that progression is almost never  a linear thing.   How did Philadelphia and Dallas do this year by the way?    
 

Remember a few years back when Jason Botchford (RIP) and Trevor Linden praised “The Winnipeg model?”  Winnipeg also serves as proof that progression isn’t linear.  After making the 3rd round in 2018, they lost in the first round a year later and then technically missed the playoffs last season.  
 

So the main points I’m making is this:

 

1) Anyone who praised “Shanaplan” should take this time to apologize for the error of their ways (We forgive you).

 

2) Given all of the other elite teams in the league, and how their progression hasn’t always been linear, fans and pundits should realize that Benning’s rebuild since 2014 is on par with most of the other teams that had to rebuild.  While progression hasn’t always been linear, the moving average has trended upwards.  All rebuilding teams have to eat turds for approximately 6-9 years and the Canucks are of no exception.

 

Sincerely.

 

Patel Bure.

Edited July 28, 2021 by Patel Bure

[Nuxfanabroad]

At this pt, they may's well tell Pajamas to stay home & pocket an LTIR cheque.

 

'Okay Save The Laffs Please'  Go have a gander at this thread(general hockey disc) that I started 2 yrs back. Many of us stated warnings back then, that you have highlighted did indeed play out.

 

A billion $ empire & they flushed it down the loo. Plenty of CDC posters would've done a better job than Kale Dubious. It's ludicrous.

[Bertuzzipunch]

Sincerely who? You never added your name at the end. Tak tsk (wags finger)

[Patel Bure]

24 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

At this pt, they may's well tell Pajamas to stay home & pocket an LTIR cheque.

 

'Okay Save The Laffs Please'  Go have a gander at this thread(general hockey disc) that I started 2 yrs back. Many of us stated warnings back then, that you have highlighted did indeed play out.

 

A billion $ empire & they flushed it down the loo. Plenty of CDC posters would've done a better job than Kale Dubious. It's ludicrous.

The funny thing about the Leafs is that they probably would have been better off avoiding Tavares altogether.   
 

Committing to depth players like JVR, Bozak, and Kadri, would not only have given the team more depth but also wouldn’t have blown the lid off the internal cap.  Guys like Nylander, Marner, Matthews, etc., would have been far more likely to take friendlier cap deals in order to “build a winner and serve the greater good” (a la LA, Chicago, Boston, etc.)

 

Cost controlled elite talent + depth = championships has been the model since 2010 Chicago.

Edited June 1, 2021 by Patel Bure

[Patel Bure]

4 minutes ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

Sincerely who? You never added your name at the end. Tak tsk (wags finger)

Fixed!  :-p

[Slegr]

I’m hoping this hilarious Leaf disaster helps convince Petey and Hughes to take a bit of a cut on contracts, recognizing that to win, you need a balance throughout the line up.

[Tom Sestito]

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-2021-around-the-league-thread-playoff-edition-iii.2825507/page-40

 

everyone in there is loling @ the leafs as well but good try

[Patel Bure]

1 minute ago, Tom Sestito said:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-2021-around-the-league-thread-playoff-edition-iii.2825507/page-40

 

everyone in there is loling @ the leafs as well but good try

There’s a difference between disliking the Leafs (as the “pundits” in my subject heading do) and being a fan of the “Shanaplan” model (as “the pundits” in my subject heading are/were).

[ilduce39]

Thanks to the loser point and a slog of a (usually) 82 game schedule... Playoff hockey is almost a different sport than regular season hockey. 
 

That’s a big hole in analytics - who love the big sample size - and base everything off of the regular season.  
 

There’s still a lot of room for upsets given different levels of effort, physicality and even refereeing we see in a playoff series.  
 

 

IMO I don’t have an issue with “analytics” - I like to check them out for the nhl and I use levels of “analytics” to inform my practice when coaching down to 11 year old basketball. It’s more the fans who pop off like they’re smarter than everyone else waving around a JFresh graph to “prove” their take is gospel.  More often than not, the graph just reiterates what we can see from more mundane stats or the eye test - and as a negative it just shuts down the discussion that a player or team may be having an off year for various circumstances (injuries, coaching, deployment, etc) and ignores the idea of improvement from year to year.

[Ghostsof1915]

I notice Dumb Nuck is not on here talking how great Toronto is, and how it's an example of a "proper" rebuild. 

[Nuxfanabroad]

2 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

I notice Dumb Nuck is not on here talking how great Toronto is, and how it's an example of a "proper" rebuild. 

That by design or just dumb luck?

 

edit: Oooh my personal stats both end in '67..lovely

Edited June 1, 2021 by Nuxfanabroad

[VegasCanuck]

It doesn’t “Really” matter to me if it’s Montreal or Toronto moving forward to the next round. That said, I can’t stop laughing for some reason tonight… 

[Tom Sestito]

8 minutes ago, Patel Bure said:

There’s a difference between disliking the Leafs (as the “pundits” in my subject heading do) and being a fan of the “Shanaplan” model (as “the pundits” in my subject heading are/were).

A plan can be good in theory but poor in execution. 

 

Matthews contract is poor in term because he can bolt early in his eligibility & Marner is overpaid.

 

They made a lot of poor pro scouting decisions on the back end and in the bottom six (Zaitsev and Barrie among the most notable ones defensively). 

 

They rode out babcock for too long and the players hated him. Keefe OTOH was a rookie coach coming into a win-now situation which was a poor hire to make. I don't have an issue with a rookie coach growing with a group of players, but you can't bring one into a win-now situation.

 

So yes, lots of poor decisions. 

 

One thing to be careful with is that the Leafs failed because they've set a higher bar. Make no mistake, they've absolutely failed. The first two years, they weren't expected to win. The 3rd year was a 50/50 series and the last two should have been sweeps considering the roster differences. Underperforming stars - it happens. 

 

But, it's also a mistake to just simply look at a failing organization and be like "yeah we're better than them." For me, I want to be at the level of a team like Colorado, Tampa, Carolina etc.. Not the LOL Leafs. That doesn't take away that I think their plan in theory was better than the retool on the fly plan from this management group.

[bigbadcanucks]

7 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

Thanks to the loser point and a slog of a (usually) 82 game schedule... Playoff hockey is almost a different sport than regular season hockey. 
 

That’s a big hole in analytics - who love the big sample size - and base everything off of the regular season.  
 

There’s still a lot of room for upsets given different levels of effort, physicality and even refereeing we see in a playoff series.  
 

IMO I don’t have an issue with “analytics” - I like to check them out for the nhl and I use levels of “analytics” to inform my practice when coaching down to 11 year old basketball. It’s more the fans who pop off like they’re smarter than everyone else waving around a JFresh graph to “prove” their take is gospel.  More often than not, the graph just reiterates what we can see from more mundane stats or the eye test - and as a negative it just shuts down the discussion that a player or team may be having an off year for various circumstances (injuries, coaching, deployment, etc) and ignores the idea of improvement from year to year.

Agreed^^^^. 

 

I'm not a big fan of hockey analytics and fancy stats...aside from points you've raised in your post, great goaltending can foil the greatest set of books.  Recent examples: Demko vs. Knights (Canucks were so badly outplayed, but almost won), Canucks of 2019-20 behind Marky's goaltending, and now Price vs. the Leafs.

 

Sorry @oldnews...I know how much you love your in depth analysis and enjoy reading your interpretation of the analytics, but hockey is just too fluid of a game with too many uncontrolled variables that I think it's hard to apply quantitative data with any precision.

 

I sure am happy the Leafs got knocked out.  Felt a little bad for Marner, but I got over that real quick.  Feel really bad for Campbell (sincerely).

[the grinder]

what another one line team lost say it ain't so     the laffs choke again   haha 

[Fred65]

TO's defence + goalie was worse then Mtl D + goalie I don't think it's rocket science. Really the TO Defence is likely on par with Vcr defence and their goaltending worse.

 

Isle beat Boston and Scott Mayfield looking good

Edited June 1, 2021 by Fred65

[hammertime]

Not a fan but this song seems so fitting for the leafs.

 

[VegasCanuck]

Awesome post by the way @Patel Bure

[Patel Bure]

1 minute ago, VegasCanuck said:

Awesome post by the way @Patel Bure

Thanks!! 

[AV.]

What a cringe thread lmfao.