Jim wants aggressive? OK lets talk Makar offer sheet.

[Devron]

Not a game you wanna play when you still have Hughes and Pettersson to sign 

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, Devron44 said:

Not a game you wanna play when you still have Hughes and Pettersson to sign 

yeah you'd have to get those done first for sure. 

[Drakrami]

Uhhh... looks like Colorado has way more cap flexibility than us. Should probably be more worried they offer sheet Pettersson. What a waste of post space = /

 

Makar is freaking amazing though. 

Edited June 2, 2021 by Drakrami

[J-P]

It's an interesting idea and a good topic/thread, but personally I don't want a 10 mil+ D right now regardless if it's Jones, Makar or someone else. I'd rather sign Adam Larsson or similar RD at around 5 mil and have the remaining money left for another D or top 9 F.

 

I see Hughes as a 1B D (not good enough defensively to be a true 1D) and want us to build by comittee around him. OJ, Rathbone, Myers, Larsson, Schmidt or replacement at similar level + one more will be a good D in 1-2 years imo.

[King Heffy]

25 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

OK. How does that prevent someone from offer sheeting Petey this year? 

It doesn't, but means we probably shouldn't be too aggressive with them since we will have trouble matching.

[NewbieCanuckFan]

2 hours ago, Fanuck said:

I disagree, the GM's still operate very much under the 'old boys club' rules.  If, as you say, they're so willing to throw each other under the bus then why aren't offer sheets happening regularly?  

 

At this point in time, knowing somewhat how JB works after watching him for 7 years - the most aggressive thing I could envision him doing would be to trade his 1st rounder this year for a young and upcoming asset who would be 2-3 years ahead of whomever we could target in the draft.  The problem with that is any asset like that would likely be coming off of their ELC and that wouldn't be good for our cap. 

Yeah I saw the fallout when Booby Clarke gave a nuisance offer sheet to Kesler.

Edited June 2, 2021 by NewbieCanuckFan

[smithers joe]

2 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

its in the rule book tho Joe, its a tool GMs have. 

still don't like it.

[Patel Bure]

2 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Just about the most aggressive thing a GM could do is an offer sheet. So who's the biggest offer sheet prize this year? Makar, by a mile.

 

It likely takes something massive like 11 x 7 but if you knew Makar would sign it, would you do it?

 

What are the pro's and con's if Jim tries a move like this?

 

And just to pre-empt one thing, all GMs would throw each other under a bus so goodwill amongst GMs isn't a good argument. 

 

I wouldn't do it for the following reasons:

 

1) We don't have the cap space right now.   I'm not opposed to offer sheets, but you have to treat these like a loaded gun (they rarely work + creating a bad reputation with other GM's around the league).

 

2) 11 x 7 to Makar in a flat cap world is too much.   Even in a non flat cap world, paying someone that much money has not proven to be a model of success.   If you look at all of the cup winners since 2010, they've all followed the "cost controlled elite talent + depth = championships" model.   Teams with an inappropriately high AAV% allocated to their top players tend to get bested by teams with a lower AAV% allocated towards it top players + heavier investment in depth.   

 

Offering 11x7 to Makar basically puts us in a similar position to Toronto, in that, none of the core players would be willing to "buy in" to take a more favourable term and money for the short term for the sake of the team.   Why?   Because - you've "blown your load" on an outsider.   "He got paid and so I want to get paid."  

 

Look at the AAV's of the top players of teams that won cups from 2010 onwards, and then analyze their AAV cap hit percentage%.    

 

Perhaps this will explain why Chicago and LA won multiple cups between 2015, and why Boston has continued to be relevant all of these years.   It may also explain why Chicago and LA fell off of a cliff after signing Toews, Kane, and Kopitar to 10 million dollar deals (as an aside, all superstars do have to get paid eventually), or why Pittsburgh and Washington played second fiddle to Chicago and LA from 2010-2015, but then 'took the torch' once those teams dropped + overall salary cap going up (which, in effect, lowered the AAV% of guys like Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, etc. to bargain contracts).   

 

In today's NHL, it's not about getting the best overall players.   It's about getting the best players at the best dollar value.     

 

For example - Nathan MacKinnon is 95-98% as good as Connor McDavid, but makes like 50-55% of what McDavid makes.   Which player would you rather have right now given this fact?    

 

Tl;dr = Makar at 11x7 million per year would have unforeseen negative consequences, much like what happened with Tavares in Toronto.  

[Chickenspear]

2 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

maybe. I'd guess that costs us this years 2nd, and I'd hate that because there are so many good potential RHDs between 30 and 60 this year. 

 

A healthy Roussel is an effective pest but he hasn't been the same since that knee rebuild. 

 

But if we could get Zadorov for a prospect swap (Lind?) and we can move Rous' salary to Seattle for a 2nd that would bring some size we really need. 

After kinda mucking around on Capfriendly, assuming Petey and Huggy take good deals maybe we could swing it similar to this:

 

Trades:

Spoiler

 

On the TBL trade... it's a bit tough to put a good value on this trade as Cernak is worth more than a 2nd imo (could be a lottery protected 2022 1st), but they also need to get rid of salary, and Johnson is their best option to ditch salary without hurting the team too much. With moving Schmidt, Roussel, and Buying out jake we can afford to take his full cap hit, while filling the 3C "scoring line" position (54.8% in the dot '20-'21). If he doesn't work out, his buyout is fairly palatable:

Spoiler

 

 

Line-up:

Spoiler

 

Long Term:

Spoiler

 

Edited June 2, 2021 by Chickenspear

[bigbadcanucks]

1 hour ago, Jimmy McGill said:

 

I like looking at end-points in discussions, so I was just thinking, what's the most aggressive thing Jim could try to do? 

 

If Jim thinks Makar is in that "generational" d category and thinks he can recover a 1st down the road (e.g., moving Boeser if Podkolin lights things up) I just wonder if he'd try something like this. 

 

It guts 3/4 of the next drafts for us in the 1st round in all likelihood. But what if those picks are in the 20's?

 

Under the current set of circumstances, I think the most aggressive thing JB can do is buy out the aging vets, even though it will create an overhang in 2022-2023...

 

Roussel: $1.734M cap hit in 2021-22 vs. $3.0M / $0.634M cap hit in 2022-23

Eriksson: $4.0M cap hit in 2021-22 vs. $6.0M / $1.0M cap hit in 2022-23

Virtanen: $0.050M cap hit in 2021-22 vs. $2.35M / $0.500M cap hit in 2022-23

Holtby: $0.500M cap hit in 2021-22 vs. $4.35M / $1.9M cap hit in 2022-23

Total Dead Cap for 2021-22: $9.32M including Luongo / 2022-23: $4.034M / 2023-24: Free and clear

 

This would give the Canucks the cap flexibility to sign Hughes and Pettersson at $7.0M, Sutter for 4C duties at $1.5M, Hamonic at $3.0M, leaving the Canucks $1.0M to sign a veteran back up (Brian Elliott, David Rittich, Mike Smith, etc.), and about $6.0M to sign a top six forward (Blake Coleman or Zach Hyman at $4.0M cap hit?).

 

It appears as if Cale Makar has leap frogged Quinn Hughes, but I think that Hughes still has all the potential to become the Brian Leetch/Phil Housley-type d-man that most of us thought last summer.  It was a tough season for Hughes, but I'm as bullish on him becoming a superstar as ever, so rolling out the red carpet for Makar doesn't make sense to me.

 

I am of the opinion that a bold move is actually staying the course (as this is counter to what fans and media are expecting).  There may be opportunities to be had with the Kraken expansion (perhaps Tanev can be had from the Flames?) and cap-crunched teams like T-Bay, but if the Canucks could add a top six forward and have Hughes, Juolevi, Rathbone emerge into roles they are expected to fulfill, I believe 2021-22 will be all but a bad fading memory.

 

My take is that the team is much better than as the results of 2021-22 indicated.  Canucks will be much better by simply having Pettersson back...goaltending is world-class...Hughes will most certainly be better and return to emerging superstar status...Juloevi and Rathbone will prove that they belong...add in veteran core of Miller, Horvat, Boeser, Myers, Schmidt and Hamonic...and the excitement that Podkolzin and Hoglander will bring, the Canucks will be much better than what we saw this season.

[Dats hockey]

3 hours ago, EternalCanuckFan said:

Makar is awesome, but 4 1sts is a supreme gamble (even on a player of Makar's caliber) at this stage of the Canucks' cycle, not to mention an $11M cap hit would probably hamstring the team.  Does the addition of Makar put the Canucks over the top?  It probably does get them closer, but it would probably also destroy their ability to fill out the rest of the roster with good depth.

If I was a team like Tampa and had 11m burning a hole in my pocket I would in a heart beat those 1st mean nothing to them

[Pears]

I think I would rather use that kind of money and draft capital to shore up the defense overall instead of just for Makar, regardless of how good he is. For example, a 1st+ for Jones and then sign someone like Larsson or Savard. 

[Nuxfanabroad]

Don't like these at all. OS's would be a non-starter, imo

[JM_]

2 hours ago, Patel Bure said:

I wouldn't do it for the following reasons:

 

1) We don't have the cap space right now.   I'm not opposed to offer sheets, but you have to treat these like a loaded gun (they rarely work + creating a bad reputation with other GM's around the league).

 

2) 11 x 7 to Makar in a flat cap world is too much.   Even in a non flat cap world, paying someone that much money has not proven to be a model of success.   If you look at all of the cup winners since 2010, they've all followed the "cost controlled elite talent + depth = championships" model.   Teams with an inappropriately high AAV% allocated to their top players tend to get bested by teams with a lower AAV% allocated towards it top players + heavier investment in depth.   

 

Offering 11x7 to Makar basically puts us in a similar position to Toronto, in that, none of the core players would be willing to "buy in" to take a more favourable term and money for the short term for the sake of the team.   Why?   Because - you've "blown your load" on an outsider.   "He got paid and so I want to get paid."  

 

Look at the AAV's of the top players of teams that won cups from 2010 onwards, and then analyze their AAV cap hit percentage%.    

 

Perhaps this will explain why Chicago and LA won multiple cups between 2015, and why Boston has continued to be relevant all of these years.   It may also explain why Chicago and LA fell off of a cliff after signing Toews, Kane, and Kopitar to 10 million dollar deals (as an aside, all superstars do have to get paid eventually), or why Pittsburgh and Washington played second fiddle to Chicago and LA from 2010-2015, but then 'took the torch' once those teams dropped + overall salary cap going up (which, in effect, lowered the AAV% of guys like Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, etc. to bargain contracts).   

 

In today's NHL, it's not about getting the best overall players.   It's about getting the best players at the best dollar value.     

 

For example - Nathan MacKinnon is 95-98% as good as Connor McDavid, but makes like 50-55% of what McDavid makes.   Which player would you rather have right now given this fact?    

 

Tl;dr = Makar at 11x7 million per year would have unforeseen negative consequences, much like what happened with Tavares in Toronto.  

very solid take on this. I'd take MacKinnon over McDavid all day. 

[JM_]

1 hour ago, bigbadcanucks said:

Under the current set of circumstances, I think the most aggressive thing JB can do is buy out the aging vets, even though it will create an overhang in 2022-2023...

 

Roussel: $1.734M cap hit in 2021-22 vs. $3.0M / $0.634M cap hit in 2022-23

Eriksson: $4.0M cap hit in 2021-22 vs. $6.0M / $1.0M cap hit in 2022-23

Virtanen: $0.050M cap hit in 2021-22 vs. $2.35M / $0.500M cap hit in 2022-23

Holtby: $0.500M cap hit in 2021-22 vs. $4.35M / $1.9M cap hit in 2022-23

Total Dead Cap for 2021-22: $9.32M including Luongo / 2022-23: $4.034M / 2023-24: Free and clear

 

This would give the Canucks the cap flexibility to sign Hughes and Pettersson at $7.0M, Sutter for 4C duties at $1.5M, Hamonic at $3.0M, leaving the Canucks $1.0M to sign a veteran back up (Brian Elliott, David Rittich, Mike Smith, etc.), and about $6.0M to sign a top six forward (Blake Coleman or Zach Hyman at $4.0M cap hit?).

 

It appears as if Cale Makar has leap frogged Quinn Hughes, but I think that Hughes still has all the potential to become the Brian Leetch/Phil Housley-type d-man that most of us thought last summer.  It was a tough season for Hughes, but I'm as bullish on him becoming a superstar as ever, so rolling out the red carpet for Makar doesn't make sense to me.

 

I am of the opinion that a bold move is actually staying the course (as this is counter to what fans and media are expecting).  There may be opportunities to be had with the Kraken expansion (perhaps Tanev can be had from the Flames?) and cap-crunched teams like T-Bay, but if the Canucks could add a top six forward and have Hughes, Juolevi, Rathbone emerge into roles they are expected to fulfill, I believe 2021-22 will be all but a bad fading memory.

 

My take is that the team is much better than as the results of 2021-22 indicated.  Canucks will be much better by simply having Pettersson back...goaltending is world-class...Hughes will most certainly be better and return to emerging superstar status...Juloevi and Rathbone will prove that they belong...add in veteran core of Miller, Horvat, Boeser, Myers, Schmidt and Hamonic...and the excitement that Podkolzin and Hoglander will bring, the Canucks will be much better than what we saw this season.

 

yeah this is another good option and way of looking at it. I don't know that I'd buy out Roussel, we save more by putting him in Abby but I'd fine just fine with the other 3.

 

[JM_]

Some really good ideas in here folks, thanks for a neat discussion. 

[Bertuzzipunch]

Just wish JB had the petey and Quinn signings done by now so we can see how much money we have left.

[komodo0921]

4 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Just about the most aggressive thing a GM could do is an offer sheet. So who's the biggest offer sheet prize this year? Makar, by a mile.

 

It likely takes something massive like 11 x 7 but if you knew Makar would sign it, would you do it?

 

What are the pro's and con's if Jim tries a move like this?

 

And just to pre-empt one thing, all GMs would throw each other under a bus so goodwill amongst GMs isn't a good argument. 

 

So aggression is the word of the day.

First, I'm never a fan of ten million dollars to any, single player. Expensive players like these take up too much of the cap and make it very difficult to fill out a roster with enough skill to win.

This is why I like the idea of a three scoring line strategy. Three lines that can score don't have to do it all themselves. Three scoring lines means the puck is in the offensive zone more. Three scoring lines means there can be players producing 50 points and be an effective contributor. Most of all, three scoring lines can stay affordable as no one player should stand out.

Another factor playing into an aggressive deal is JB stating that buyouts are going to be part of his offseason strategy.

 

Quinn Hughes for Seth Jones, Boone Jenner, and the Leafs 2021 1st round pick.

 

I think all can agree this is an aggressive deal.

The biggest reason I'm dealing QH is due to his lack of defensive game. Travis Green wants a team that plays all 200 ft of the game (ie. Las Vegas, Montreal, Tampa Bay). QH does not fit this strategy.

There are players in the Columbus organization, seemingly, wanting out. We know Jones wants out and I can see Jenner wanting a fresh start.

QH is a player that they'll have control over for years to come. He and Laine can be the start of a, highly offensive strategy there. He gives them a premiere piece to build around.

QH is going to be looking at a hefty raise, possibly, north of seven million. At this point, I'd be very hesitant to go there with him. Offensively, he's gifted but, defensively, he's a nightmare. The bottom line is, I don't trust him.

We get two older players who are more reliable, defensively. They are also two players who are needing new deals after next season.

However,  we'd have two players on good deals for next season at team friendly money for one season.

 

Jenner               Petey              Boeser

Pearson            Horvat             Hoglander

                         Miller               Podkolzin

Gadjovich         Beagle?          Macewen

 

Rathbone               Jones

Schmidt                  Myers

Juolevi                   Hamonic

 

Demko

Holtby

 

I think this is a lineup that can be afforded, given the right moves and buyouts.

Unfortunately, QH is a Benning pick so I hold no hope of anything like this happening.

 

 

 

 

[JM_]

5 minutes ago, komodo0921 said:

So aggression is the word of the day.

First, I'm never a fan of ten million dollars to any, single player. Expensive players like these take up too much of the cap and make it very difficult to fill out a roster with enough skill to win.

This is why I like the idea of a three scoring line strategy. Three lines that can score don't have to do it all themselves. Three scoring lines means the puck is in the offensive zone more. Three scoring lines means there can be players producing 50 points and be an effective contributor. Most of all, three scoring lines can stay affordable as no one player should stand out.

Another factor playing into an aggressive deal is JB stating that buyouts are going to be part of his offseason strategy.

 

Quinn Hughes for Seth Jones, Boone Jenner, and the Leafs 2021 1st round pick.

 

I think all can agree this is an aggressive deal.

The biggest reason I'm dealing QH is due to his lack of defensive game. Travis Green wants a team that plays all 200 ft of the game (ie. Las Vegas, Montreal, Tampa Bay). QH does not fit this strategy.

There are players in the Columbus organization, seemingly, wanting out. We know Jones wants out and I can see Jenner wanting a fresh start.

QH is a player that they'll have control over for years to come. He and Laine can be the start of a, highly offensive strategy there. He gives them a premiere piece to build around.

QH is going to be looking at a hefty raise, possibly, north of seven million. At this point, I'd be very hesitant to go there with him. Offensively, he's gifted but, defensively, he's a nightmare. The bottom line is, I don't trust him.

We get two older players who are more reliable, defensively. They are also two players who are needing new deals after next season.

However,  we'd have two players on good deals for next season at team friendly money for one season.

 

Jenner               Petey              Boeser

Pearson            Horvat             Hoglander

                         Miller               Podkolzin

Gadjovich         Beagle?          Macewen

 

Rathbone               Jones

Schmidt                  Myers

Juolevi                   Hamonic

 

Demko

Holtby

 

I think this is a lineup that can be afforded, given the right moves and buyouts.

Unfortunately, QH is a Benning pick so I hold no hope of anything like this happening.

 

 

 

 

I think almost anyone on here would take that deal. 

[Bertuzzipunch]

5 minutes ago, komodo0921 said:

So aggression is the word of the day.

First, I'm never a fan of ten million dollars to any, single player. Expensive players like these take up too much of the cap and make it very difficult to fill out a roster with enough skill to win.

This is why I like the idea of a three scoring line strategy. Three lines that can score don't have to do it all themselves. Three scoring lines means the puck is in the offensive zone more. Three scoring lines means there can be players producing 50 points and be an effective contributor. Most of all, three scoring lines can stay affordable as no one player should stand out.

Another factor playing into an aggressive deal is JB stating that buyouts are going to be part of his offseason strategy.

 

Quinn Hughes for Seth Jones, Boone Jenner, and the Leafs 2021 1st round pick.

 

I think all can agree this is an aggressive deal.

The biggest reason I'm dealing QH is due to his lack of defensive game. Travis Green wants a team that plays all 200 ft of the game (ie. Las Vegas, Montreal, Tampa Bay). QH does not fit this strategy.

There are players in the Columbus organization, seemingly, wanting out. We know Jones wants out and I can see Jenner wanting a fresh start.

QH is a player that they'll have control over for years to come. He and Laine can be the start of a, highly offensive strategy there. He gives them a premiere piece to build around.

QH is going to be looking at a hefty raise, possibly, north of seven million. At this point, I'd be very hesitant to go there with him. Offensively, he's gifted but, defensively, he's a nightmare. The bottom line is, I don't trust him.

We get two older players who are more reliable, defensively. They are also two players who are needing new deals after next season.

However,  we'd have two players on good deals for next season at team friendly money for one season.

 

Jenner               Petey              Boeser

Pearson            Horvat             Hoglander

                         Miller               Podkolzin

Gadjovich         Beagle?          Macewen

 

Rathbone               Jones

Schmidt                  Myers

Juolevi                   Hamonic

 

Demko

Holtby

 

I think this is a lineup that can be afforded, given the right moves and buyouts.

Unfortunately, QH is a Benning pick so I hold no hope of anything like this happening.

 

 

 

 

And the fact that 97% of canuck fans dont want QH traded.