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[Discussion] Seth Jones again...


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43 minutes ago, Fanuck said:

I think there exists a huge gap between the current 'market' value of a player like Seth Jones and the actual 'on-ice' value he presents.  Yes, CBJ was not great this year and yes, Torts systems probably didn't do him any favors, but even taking that into consideration there were some glaring inconsistencies to Jones' game this season (yes, I know it was an atypical season) which would put a huge 'red flag' beside this player if I were a GM - especially on a player coming off an inconsistent year who has one year left before UFA.  Jones will no doubt be looking for top 5 defenceman money (that's top 5 in the league, not on a team) and that puts him in the minimum $10, 000 000.00/yr range with clauses.  If you don't do your due diligence as a GM/franchise before considering this you could be potentially looking at a world of hurt cap-wise in the not too distant future. 

Great post.  You nailed it.  
 

For me, especially in this flat cap world, it’s not so much about “who is the best player,” but rather, who brings the best value for his money?   Beyond next season, Jones will cost you north of 9 million.

 

By contrast, maybe a guy like Hampus Lindholm will come between 6 and 6.5 million, or a guy like Adam Larsson or David Savard coming in at 4.5-5 million.  That net difference in salary could be used to get another player......like a 3rd line center for instance.  
 

Cost controlled elite talent + depth = championships.  That has been the model since Chicago 2010.   

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6 minutes ago, Patel Bure said:

Cost controlled elite talent + depth = championships. 

That, or have one of your players 'mysteriously' come down with a 'skin condition' or have your highest paid player 'injured' the entire regular season but miraculously be healthy right when the playoffs begin lol....

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3 hours ago, MrCanuck94 said:

I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Jones, but I also believe Schmidt underperformed last season due to circumstances. He was the top minute man for one of the best teams before coming here.

 

Let's give him another shot, maybe a different package could be had for Jones?

I agree - and I don't believe he underperformed - but I get what your point is - mine is just semantics.

 

It's true that the circumstances were very different.

 

In Vegas, needless to say, he was part of a deep, healthy, contending group.

He was versatile there as well - played various types of minutes - but the bottom line (which is usually production for most people) is that in Vegas he had 49.7% ozone starts (52.9% corsi) - and he played with a group that had a veteran top 6 - who handle the bulk of their hard minutes - and a bottom six more geared to secondary scoring....His workload wasn't as heavy, and his minutes were more conducive to production.

 

This year - he got 34.9% ozone starts - very low - typical shutdown type minutes/situations.

The group was rarely, if ever healthy.

He came into a new group - as did a few other players (including other D like Hamonic - who had a horrible start).

And if you look at the last umpteen games he had 2 pts (in about his last 14 games).  That is to be 'expected' imo - playing the kind of minutes he was - on a group that had literally about 10 or more replacement, waiver wire, AHL callup and/or prospects in the lineup on a regular basis.

 

Schmidt was actually very good at times this year - and generally solid imo.

His outcomes are highly misleading - 'expected' imo - but don't necessarily reflect upon what 'should be expected' in better circumstances - in a more prepared, healthier, non-covid set of circumstances (and who knows how badly he himself was hit during that outbreak).

 

He's a very important player for this team moving forward imo.  He sets a great tone - in terms of his 'timing' imo - he transitions the puck extremely quickly, something this group wants to establish as more a matter of habit imo.  He's versatily - he skates extremely well - he can play in all situations - and both sides - and he was a steal at a mere 3rd round pick.

 

As good as Jones is - I'm not keen on spending multiple principals to acquire him - and then re-upping him at a long term 28+ yr deal that would take him to his mid 30s.  Not sure that's the right fit for this group or it's timing....

 

I think I'd rather they see what is there at 9 - if that pick translates into the right RHD - or a powerforward/possible center - then great....if it's an irresistable BPA, then great...but if not - I think I'd rather they deal that pick for a young draft+ years RHD (ie Cal Foote) - one that can grow with this core - key being the right future partner for Hughes....I'd rather see a single asset spent on a young player - than multiples on a guy at Jones's stage.  I think if we're going in that age range, it should be on the FA market...as opposed to a king's ransome just as the team is reaching a critical mass of youth talent.

 

With the e.d. approaching, they have more of a vacancy in their forward protection spots.  The franchise may not 'need' another forward as much as a D - but that's the more opportune add given the e.d. structure imo. 

 

For me, I'd hold off on the Jones thing - and target players more in the range of Foote, Mayfield (etc, a list I've compiled elsewhere - Timmins) - Dobson is another interesting option -  a player like Bouchard may also be....but I'd prefer they stay away from the big, established tickets unless they have real leverage (which I don't necessarily think they would given the demand there will likely be for Jones despite circumstances).

 

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1 hour ago, Fanuck said:

I think there exists a huge gap between the current 'market' value of a player like Seth Jones and the actual 'on-ice' value he presents.  Yes, CBJ was not great this year and yes, Torts systems probably didn't do him any favors, but even taking that into consideration there were some glaring inconsistencies to Jones' game this season (yes, I know it was an atypical season) which would put a huge 'red flag' beside this player if I were a GM - especially on a player coming off an inconsistent year who has one year left before UFA.  Jones will no doubt be looking for top 5 defenceman money (that's top 5 in the league, not on a team) and that puts him in the minimum $10, 000 000.00/yr range with clauses.  If you don't do your due diligence as a GM/franchise before considering this you could be potentially looking at a world of hurt cap-wise in the not too distant future. 

thats way too much for Jones, if thats his ask stay clear. 

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7 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

thats way too much for Jones, if thats his ask stay clear. 

Yeah its not like hes a top 5 dman in the NHL. More towards 15-20. Giving him 10 mill is a no go imo

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1 minute ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

Yeah its not like hes a top 5 dman in the NHL. More towards 15-20. Giving him 10 mill is a no go imo

I just don't think we're a big enough stage for him. He'll want to be in a big US market.

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Realistically I don't think we have the cap space right now and even if we could squeeze out the $$ I think it would limit financially  what other moves we could make going forward. i'll stick with #9

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4 hours ago, VegasCanuck said:

From what I've heard, Jones wants to control where he goes. Unless he's willing to sign an extension here, its an irrelevant discussion.

Well i guess your not reading the same thing i am.  He's not happy there.   And doesn't have the luxury to go where he wants if they decide to trade him, he's not a UFA with any clauses.   So it's a very relevant conversation.    But your right - we shouldn't be considering this without a re-sign in place. 

 

We aren't contending.   Look what EK cost and divide that in maybe half for a rental, which he was, but include the first and that's fair. 

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No to trading for Jones.

Wait for him in free agency, if he wants to come here he will, and it won't cost anything but money.

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31 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Well i guess your not reading the same thing i am.  He's not happy there.   And doesn't have the luxury to go where he wants if they decide to trade him, he's not a UFA with any clauses.   So it's a very relevant conversation.    But your right - we shouldn't be considering this without a re-sign in place. 

 

We aren't contending.   Look what EK cost and divide that in maybe half for a rental, which he was, but include the first and that's fair. 

He can decide that he won't sign an extension with the team that he's traded to. That gives him leverage, unless you're happy trading significant assets for one year here.

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7 hours ago, HKSR said:

Probably sick of hearing about Seth Jones, but if this is what it took to get him in a Canucks uniform next year (and assuming the Canucks get to speak to him regarding a contract extension first)... would you do it?

 

To VAN:

Seth Jones

 

To CBJ:

9OA

Nate Schmidt

Kole Lind

Have to remember Scmidt had a down year last year..He is a solid # 2 guy great skater with offensive side..

Lead Vegas with TOI in last years playoffs...

I would want very good value back for Scmidt...

I also think Rathbone will start next season flying.. GP 8--- PTS 3  played under 12 min first few games, So much potential..

Rathbone #4 D man before 25 game mark next season....

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7 minutes ago, wildcam said:

Have to remember Scmidt had a down year last year..He is a solid # 2 guy great skater with offensive side..

Lead Vegas with TOI in last years playoffs...

I would want very good value back for Scmidt...

I also think Rathbone will start next season flying.. GP 8--- PTS 3  played under 12 min first few games, So much potential..

Rathbone #4 D man before 25 game mark next season....

 

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Next Season..

Hughes ---- Hamonic 6'2 --2 X 2.1 million 

Scmidt 6'0 --- Myers 6'7

Rathbone-- Bowey 6'2

 Trade ?

Scmidt  - Lind  -  Blues ---- Parayko, 28,  6'6,  great beside Hughes

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4 minutes ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

 

Scmidt is a better player then a #4 D man? He did fine in Vegas only been a year, very fast with skill...

Hansen is so wrong..

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1 minute ago, wildcam said:

Scmidt is a better player then a #4 D man? He did fine in Vegas only been a year, very fast with skill...

Hansen is so wrong..

Hes not completely wrong tho. Our entire defense as a group was very bad this season. 

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4 hours ago, Patel Bure said:

That’s a great deal for Vancouver but can you honestly see CBJ agreeing to that?   I can’t.

 

If we have any dreams whatsoever of getting Seth Jones, the conversation *starts* with Horvat or Boeser.  Or, the conversation *starts* with Schmidt+Podkolzin or Miller+Podkolzin, or maybe even Miller+Schmidt.

 

I personally don’t think it’s realistic for us to get Jones and have him agree to signing here long term.   Acquiring Jones would likely cost us too many young assets, and I’m not sure that we can afford to do that.

 

I would personally rather kick the tires on Hampus Lindholm instead, and see what the asking price on him (although like Seth Jones, I’m not really a fan of the Canucks giving up young assets).

 

I am of the following opinion:

 

1) Try and use a 2nd + 3rd as a sweetener to get rid of Eriksson.

2) Use the Eriksson money to go after both David Savard and Alex Wenneberg.

 

Savard is by no means a sexy option, but he’d be a good utilitarian “defensive” defenseman that could be the ying to the Yang of one of Hughes or Schmidt.......and he’d only cost money.

 

 

 

BIG MISTAKE, never make this trade...Jones 27 in October...Too many good assets..

No to trade with Podkolzin, 19,  6'2 , 215 a jem...

I would rather trade for Parayko 28, 6'6, ---21 TOI------ Scmidt-- Lind, sweeten draft pick to make it work

 

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1 hour ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

Hes not completely wrong tho. Our entire defense as a group was very bad this season. 

Players or personnel? I like our defencemen. I still think we need that no.1 right hander but our defence shouldn’t be as bad as it was last year imo. I think we would improve with the same guys next year, not a whole bunch but the familiarity is there now and I think they can build on that now. However we still need to add a guy like a Jones ideally I’m not going to argue that. 

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1 hour ago, wildcam said:

BIG MISTAKE, never make this trade...Jones 27 in October...Too many good assets..

No to trade with Podkolzin, 19,  6'2 , 215 a jem...

I would rather trade for Parayko 28, 6'6, ---21 TOI------ Scmidt-- Lind, sweeten draft pick to make it work

 

Agree we should not be taking 3 steps back so we can take one step forward. Jones may not be the answer. It just sounds nice 

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