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[Discussion] If exposed would Seattle take Myers


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On 6/5/2021 at 8:25 PM, mll said:

Probably not.  Seattle is very much into analytics and contract efficiency was part of their analysis in their GM search.

 

The advanced stat community seems to consider his contract a fail.  Sportlogiq’s tracking technology a year ahead of free agency also showed that he was inefficient in his own zone back in Winnipeg.  The Canucks have been one of the worse defensive team the past few seasons so not sure he has improved that part of his game.  Maurica was using him as a 3rd pairing D when everyone was healthy.  Seems to be also the case under Green where the toughest matchups go to Edler and then Hughes and he doesn’t play much with either.

lol at this whole comment, says the analytics nonsense guide. you have no clue what they will do and neither does anyone else.

 

 Sportlogiq’s lol settle down mll

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, BPA said:

Yep.

 

Getting rid of Meyers is like 2 steps back.  Who's gonna replace him?  Myers will be protected from the expansion draft by JB.

People not protecting Myers are out to lunch. I'd like to see a top 50 defenceman list, or I guess maybe 100 in the NHL. Point is people are being deluded, there are not a lot of great defenceman out there.

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20 hours ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

No team is going to trade a young right side D man for a non top 1st round pick unless that team has serious questions about that player (which would you make you wonder why we would want such a player).

True enough, I was merely speculating and your position is likely the correct one.  :)

 

This being said, if you take into consideration cap space, that TB already has a number of good, young, right side d-men atm, and they would be getting the chance to replace the d-man they are sending out with the prospect they could be choosing with the pick they are getting in the trade, I think there is a window there.

 

                                                            regards,  G.

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19 hours ago, BPA said:

Yep.

 

Getting rid of Meyers is like 2 steps back.  Who's gonna replace him?  Myers will be protected from the expansion draft by JB.

Hamonic for way cheaper, then go sign a rhd for 1 yr then look at the loaded 2022 FA D class and hope you can go after 1 or maybe even 2 guys depending how much salary we move out between now and then

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If Myers is exposed, Seattle takes him without question.  We would be absolutely F'd though.  Losing a 22 min RHD would be devastating for this lineup.  Our best answer is to find another solid RDH whop can bring Myers minutes into the 19-20 range, where I think he would thrive. 

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2 hours ago, Canuckster86 said:

Hamonic for way cheaper, then go sign a rhd for 1 yr then look at the loaded 2022 FA D class and hope you can go after 1 or maybe even 2 guys depending how much salary we move out between now and then

So Canucks re-sign Hamonic (which I expected them to do), lose Myers, and hope we can sign a RHD to fill in the minutes Meyers played?

 

So how does that improve the Canucks D next year?

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8 minutes ago, BPA said:

So Canucks re-sign Hamonic (which I expected them to do), lose Myers, and hope we can sign a RHD to fill in the minutes Meyers played?

 

So how does that improve the Canucks D next year?

exactly.  We are protecting Myers and Schmidt for sure.  We will sign Hamonic after the ED.  That's a very good right side to our D.  Then we have Hughes, Bone, and OJ on the left side.  The Kraken will get a guy like Lind or Gads from us.  They might take Holtby, but that's a stretch.  

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30 minutes ago, Alflives said:

exactly.  We are protecting Myers and Schmidt for sure.  We will sign Hamonic after the ED.  That's a very good right side to our D.  Then we have Hughes, Bone, and OJ on the left side.  The Kraken will get a guy like Lind or Gads from us.  They might take Holtby, but that's a stretch.  

I'm still going after a quality RD if that is what we have.  If Schmidt is playing a primarily defensive role, he needs to be on the left side.

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1 hour ago, BCNate said:

If Myers is exposed, Seattle takes him without question.  We would be absolutely F'd though.  Losing a 22 min RHD would be devastating for this lineup.  Our best answer is to find another solid RDH whop can bring Myers minutes into the 19-20 range, where I think he would thrive. 

our team was a tire fire on D before Meyers and with Meyers. Clearing 6m would be a huge win for this team, JB acquired Schmidt who has extensively played as a RHD in the NHL...maybe the coach needs to be "Told" to us him like that. We also can sign Hamonic for probably half of what Meyers makes so yes, moving Meyers would be a benefit. The team has said they prefer him on the 3rd pair anyway...we didn't keep Stecher for that role and he was way less than Meyers, with a flat cap there will be players who will sign cheaper deals and likely only on 1 or 2 year terms.

 

Hughes Hamonic

Edler Schmidt

Rathbone UFA/Pre expansion trade/or just trade at any point in the off season.

 

"Losing" Meyers to Seattle would be a win long term for the team. Gives us much needed cap flexibility. JB should be aggressive and bold this year and leaving Meyers exposed is that "Bold" type of move. Benning should then see what the cost would be for Seattle or another team with cap room Detroit/Ottawa etc to take the LE contract off our hands. Yes it will cost a decent pick and or prospect but clearing another 6m in cap space gives us plenty of room to be aggresive with trades pre expansion draft to take good player a team can't protect. Tampa is going to need to clear out some room, maybe if they do protect the 4F 4D route we can get Cal Foote from them if they resist completely to moving Cernak if a team took Johnson.

 

Imagine if we got Cernak for taking Johnson and his contract AFTER moving LE and Meyers gone in expansion.

 

EP Miller Boeser

Pearson Bo Hog

Motte Johnson Podkolzin

Highmore Beagle Mac/Bailey/Lind/Gadj/Lockwood/Roussel/Graovac

 

Virtanen- Contract terminated/bought out depending on outcome of police investigation. No team will touch Jake via trade or waivers imo regardless of the outcome of the police investigation. Might have to go to Europe for a year or maybe a team gives him a PTO, but that might not look good from a PR stand point.

 

Hughes Cernak

Edler Schmidt

Rathbone Hamonic

 

Demko

Holtby

 

The above line up looks quite a bit better than this years with some "Aggressive, Bold moves" That will cost us an asset or 2 to move LE and maybe something to get Seattle to take Meyers. But some here think if Meyers is left exposed he would be snapped up so that wouldn't be an issue.

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1 hour ago, BCNate said:

If Myers is exposed, Seattle takes him without question.  We would be absolutely F'd though.  Losing a 22 min RHD would be devastating for this lineup.  Our best answer is to find another solid RDH whop can bring Myers minutes into the 19-20 range, where I think he would thrive. 

 

Myers played a decent amount of minutes but looks to have played mostly against bottom of the lineup players and the least against the opponents top lines. 

 

With everyone healthy Myers was listed on the 3rd pairing.  It's Schmidt that played with Edler despite not being a natural RD and having to adjust to a new system and new team - they were mostly taking the toughest matchups.  Hamonic played with Hughes and when injured it was Benn that moved up.

 

With so few opponents it's actually easy to look up matchups and how many minutes players went up against each other, by using players as proxy for the different lines.  Only the first 30 games of the season before the Beagle injury and the Covid outbreak.  The lineup was mostly healthy till then with Hamonic missing time but Benn moving into his spot alongside Hughes.

 

Edmonton in 4 games             Edler        Hughes          Myers

McDavid                                42 min         22 min         16 min

Draisaitl                                 17 min          35 min         14 min

 

Winnipeg in 5 games

Scheifele                               44 min        25 min           24 min

Ehlers                                    27 min         31 min          21 min

 

Toronto in 5 games                

Matthews                             45 min          18 min          25 min

Tavares                                22 min           29 min          27 min

 

Calgary in 5 games

Lindholm                              29 min           30 min        24 min

Monahan                              32 min          35 min         23 min

 

Someone needs to play Edler's minutes if he isn't coming back - he probably also should play less as he is slowing down.  It's probably easier to redistribute Myers' minutes than Edler's as Myers has played more against non scoring lines while Edler has been playing mostly the opponents's biggest scoring threat.

 

The Canucks have been pretty bad defensively already last season and again this one.  Curious to see how they will re-define the pairings and roles next season and if an assistant coaching change will help them improve.

 

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5 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said:

our team was a tire fire on D before Meyers and with Meyers. Clearing 6m would be a huge win for this team, JB acquired Schmidt who has extensively played as a RHD in the NHL...maybe the coach needs to be "Told" to us him like that. We also can sign Hamonic for probably half of what Meyers makes so yes, moving Meyers would be a benefit. The team has said they prefer him on the 3rd pair anyway...we didn't keep Stecher for that role and he was way less than Meyers, with a flat cap there will be players who will sign cheaper deals and likely only on 1 or 2 year terms.

 

Hughes Hamonic

Edler Schmidt

Rathbone UFA/Pre expansion trade/or just trade at any point in the off season.

 

"Losing" Meyers to Seattle would be a win long term for the team. Gives us much needed cap flexibility. JB should be aggressive and bold this year and leaving Meyers exposed is that "Bold" type of move. Benning should then see what the cost would be for Seattle or another team with cap room Detroit/Ottawa etc to take the LE contract off our hands. Yes it will cost a decent pick and or prospect but clearing another 6m in cap space gives us plenty of room to be aggresive with trades pre expansion draft to take good player a team can't protect. Tampa is going to need to clear out some room, maybe if they do protect the 4F 4D route we can get Cal Foote from them if they resist completely to moving Cernak if a team took Johnson.

 

Imagine if we got Cernak for taking Johnson and his contract AFTER moving LE and Meyers gone in expansion.

 

EP Miller Boeser

Pearson Bo Hog

Motte Johnson Podkolzin

Highmore Beagle Mac/Bailey/Lind/Gadj/Lockwood/Roussel/Graovac

 

Virtanen- Contract terminated/bought out depending on outcome of police investigation. No team will touch Jake via trade or waivers imo regardless of the outcome of the police investigation. Might have to go to Europe for a year or maybe a team gives him a PTO, but that might not look good from a PR stand point.

 

Hughes Cernak

Edler Schmidt

Rathbone Hamonic

 

Demko

Holtby

 

The above line up looks quite a bit better than this years with some "Aggressive, Bold moves" That will cost us an asset or 2 to move LE and maybe something to get Seattle to take Meyers. But some here think if Meyers is left exposed he would be snapped up so that wouldn't be an issue.

 

Tampa only have 3 Ds to absolutely protect - Hedman, Sergachev and Cernak.  McDonagh turns 32 this month and has a 6.75M cap hit for another 5 seasons after this one.   They've been going some games with 7 Ds and Foote has yet to play in the post-season.  It's his first season though.  

 

If Tampa is making a deal with Seattle to move cap - most insiders believe they will, they don't have to move anyone before expansion.  

 

Will probably cost more than a 2nd round pick to move Eriksson.  It's a flat cap and 6M is a lot of cap space to lose.  Johnson is an ugly contract - not that they would move Cernak.  Might be better to simply keep that room to go after some of the upcoming UFA Ds this year or next.

 

Seattle is unlikely to be picking Myers with his numbers and that contract.  They are analytics driven and his numbers aren't great.  

 

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3 hours ago, mll said:

 

Tampa only have 3 Ds to absolutely protect - Hedman, Sergachev and Cernak.  McDonagh turns 32 this month and has a 6.75M cap hit for another 5 seasons after this one.   They've been going some games with 7 Ds and Foote has yet to play in the post-season.  It's his first season though.  

 

If Tampa is making a deal with Seattle to move cap - most insiders believe they will, they don't have to move anyone before expansion.  

 

Will probably cost more than a 2nd round pick to move Eriksson.  It's a flat cap and 6M is a lot of cap space to lose.  Johnson is an ugly contract - not that they would move Cernak.  Might be better to simply keep that room to go after some of the upcoming UFA Ds this year or next.

 

Seattle is unlikely to be picking Myers with his numbers and that contract.  They are analytics driven and his numbers aren't great.  

 

Yeah, Myer's analytically isn't great but in general a RHD with Myers size, strength and skating ability would be appealing for most teams in the league... Seattle could in theory pick him up with the intention of trading him at 50% retention for a decent kickback on assets.

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On 6/5/2021 at 2:49 PM, Bertuzzipunch said:

JB has a lot of work to do this offseason to fill those protected spots with real NHL players.
 

Motte, Pearson, Schmidt and Jouveli shouldnt be protected.

Not protecting Schmidt would be a terrible move imo.

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15 hours ago, mll said:

 

Seattle's owner Leiweke says analytics is more than a department, it's a way of life.

 

The NHL is introducing puck and tracking technology.  They probably wouldn't invest that kind of money and effort if teams did not see value in it.  Teams are apparently looking to increase their analytics hire - Friedman tweeted just a couple of weeks ago: "As tracking data grows in NHL, you’re going to see a number of teams build out their analytics department".  Several analytics' websites have shut down over the years as they are being hired by NHL teams.

 

Teams across the league probably use some form of tracking technology for their analytics now - Sportlogiq, CSA and there are probably others out there.

 

Some of the best teams in the league are using analytics to identify fit and areas for improvement - Colorado, Tampa, Carolina and Vegas notably.  Barry Trotz talks of how analytics has helped him improve his coaching and win a Cup.   

 

Seattle went out and hired Alexandra Mandrycky who was co-founder of the website war-on-ice to head that department.  WAR is the acronym for win above replacement.  The site closed when they were hired by the Wild - Minnesota is still using the tools that was developed while with them.

 

When Seattle looked to hire their GM, they had their analytics department heavily involved.  They didn't only evaluate drafting record but also efficiency of contract signings and trades.  They insist that they want to be an organisation that knows how to evaluate players - players have a price tag range for what they bring and overpaying is not efficient.

 

Ron Francis in Carolina hired Eric Tulsky who was running an analytics website.  He is still with Carolina and has been promoted to AGM since.  Seattle's owner Leiweke calls Francis a visionary who understood early the competitive advantage to look into analytics and technology.

 

Given the quotes by ownership and their investment in the department and approach to date, it seems reasonable enough to think that Seattle will want to involve their analytics department in identifying their roster.

 

One of their analyst and SFU alumn actually spelled out his role in the expansion draft to CTV last August.  Extract:

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/sfu-alum-crunches-the-numbers-to-give-seattle-kraken-an-edge-1.5058508

 

You won't see Chu on the ice for the NHL expansion franchise, but the team's quantitative analyst will have an enormous influence on the players who do make the roster.

 

The Simon Fraser University alum uses sports analytics to assess hockey talent and appraise overlooked —or overblown —potential.

 

"On the pro-player evaluation, this helps us evaluate who we think is good defensively, who we think is good offensively and adding a numbers approach," said Chu, pointing out the stats can either back up what a scout sees or put it into doubt. 

 

“We're not just using the eye test but looking across multiple games and multiple seasons to see how a player produces over that time span,” he said.

[...]

With Seattle, Chu's analysis will help the Kraken make its picks during the NHL expansion draft next summer. And his data will help establish what a player is worth.

 

"We can look at things like passes and zone entries and zone exits and the successfulness of those events with different players on the ice for different teams in different situations," he said, describing what many hockey fans might know in the most simple terms as driving the net or clearing the puck.

Good info but I don't see that as them not taking Myers over say Holtby, Lind, or Gadj. It says they pay attention to them, not that they're the be all end all, or that they preclude them from looking at a player.

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16 hours ago, mll said:

 

Seattle's owner Leiweke says analytics is more than a department, it's a way of life.

 

The NHL is introducing puck and tracking technology.  They probably wouldn't invest that kind of money and effort if teams did not see value in it.  Teams are apparently looking to increase their analytics hire - Friedman tweeted just a couple of weeks ago: "As tracking data grows in NHL, you’re going to see a number of teams build out their analytics department".  Several analytics' websites have shut down over the years as they are being hired by NHL teams.

 

Teams across the league probably use some form of tracking technology for their analytics now - Sportlogiq, CSA and there are probably others out there.

 

Some of the best teams in the league are using analytics to identify fit and areas for improvement - Colorado, Tampa, Carolina and Vegas notably.  Barry Trotz talks of how analytics has helped him improve his coaching and win a Cup.   

 

Seattle went out and hired Alexandra Mandrycky who was co-founder of the website war-on-ice to head that department.  WAR is the acronym for win above replacement.  The site closed when they were hired by the Wild - Minnesota is still using the tools that was developed while with them.

 

When Seattle looked to hire their GM, they had their analytics department heavily involved.  They didn't only evaluate drafting record but also efficiency of contract signings and trades.  They insist that they want to be an organisation that knows how to evaluate players - players have a price tag range for what they bring and overpaying is not efficient.

 

Ron Francis in Carolina hired Eric Tulsky who was running an analytics website.  He is still with Carolina and has been promoted to AGM since.  Seattle's owner Leiweke calls Francis a visionary who understood early the competitive advantage to look into analytics and technology.

 

Given the quotes by ownership and their investment in the department and approach to date, it seems reasonable enough to think that Seattle will want to involve their analytics department in identifying their roster.

 

One of their analyst and SFU alumn actually spelled out his role in the expansion draft to CTV last August.  Extract:

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/sfu-alum-crunches-the-numbers-to-give-seattle-kraken-an-edge-1.5058508

 

You won't see Chu on the ice for the NHL expansion franchise, but the team's quantitative analyst will have an enormous influence on the players who do make the roster.

 

The Simon Fraser University alum uses sports analytics to assess hockey talent and appraise overlooked —or overblown —potential.

 

"On the pro-player evaluation, this helps us evaluate who we think is good defensively, who we think is good offensively and adding a numbers approach," said Chu, pointing out the stats can either back up what a scout sees or put it into doubt. 

 

“We're not just using the eye test but looking across multiple games and multiple seasons to see how a player produces over that time span,” he said.

[...]

With Seattle, Chu's analysis will help the Kraken make its picks during the NHL expansion draft next summer. And his data will help establish what a player is worth.

 

"We can look at things like passes and zone entries and zone exits and the successfulness of those events with different players on the ice for different teams in different situations," he said, describing what many hockey fans might know in the most simple terms as driving the net or clearing the puck.

Good foundation - seems they had studied and learned from other teams.

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Posted (edited)

 

On 6/5/2021 at 2:44 PM, goblix said:

Expansion protected list:

Forwards: Boeser / Horvat / Miller / Pettersson / Motte / Pearson / ???

Defensemen: Schmidt / Juolevi / ???

Goalie: Demko

 

So this leaves us with exposed players of:

  1. Myers
  2. Roussel
  3. Virtanen
  4. MacEwen
  5. Lind
  6. Gadjovich
  7. Holtby

 

That's pretty much it really.. I'm not listing Beagle or Ferland because of medical reasons and I doubt they claim Virtanen given his legal issues at the moment but I still put him up there...

 

Given this list would there really be any choice for Seattle other than Myers here? I guess I could see them pick a prospect like Lind or Gadjovich but they are unknown quantities that really didn't take advantage of the chance they had this year.

That's only a fraction of the equaton, though.

 

What Seattle will do will depend on what is available league wide - they'll have to do an evaluation of all the exposed players relative to each other, not just realtive to their particular team-mates - so it's pretty difficult to say - Myers compared to all the other exposed D - with the added complication of how much other cap they will prioritize.

I think it's highly likely he'd wind up selected if he were exposed (I'll be surprised if that's the case)- I'm also skeptical that the team will add a defenseman prior to the expansion draft unless an irresistable opportunity presents itself to land a young partner for Hughes...

 

Remembering that these boards were full of people that thought Luca Sbisa was unmoveable - one of the worst, overpaid D in the NHL...and then Vegas took him (over a prospect like Gaunce) - and he wound up in their top 4, a team that had a choice between practically all the #4 D in the NHL at the time....Personally, I'm in no hurry to see Myers gone.

Remove him and a forward of choice from that exposed list and Seattle doesn't really have much on us.

.

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