[Discussion] If exposed would Seattle take Myers

[Patel Bure]

To Seattle:  9th OA + Holtby + Myers 

To Vancouver:  7th rounder

[Bertuzzipunch]

55 minutes ago, Patel Bure said:

To Seattle:  9th OA + Holtby + Myers 

To Vancouver:  7th rounder

Can we ask for a 6th rounder instead of a 7?

[Patel Bure]

3 hours ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

Can we ask for a 6th rounder instead of a 7?

Yes!

[deepbluefunk]

20 hours ago, Patel Bure said:

To Seattle:  9th OA + Holtby + Myers 

To Vancouver:  7th rounder

Sorry. Why are you going down this route? If you think Seattle will take Myers if exposed then you're basically offering them a 9th overall pick to get out from one year of a backup goalie's contract. I don't see the value in that.

 

 

Getting back to the original idea of exposing Myers, I'm definitely starting to warm to the idea. It's clear that we would be significantly worse next year though, but I can live with that. Next year is all about setting up for 2022-23, when all the dead cap space goes away and we can really support the core.

[billabong]

Seattle isn’t taking a 6m 4/5 Dman 

 

Right now we are poised to lose macewan, Lind or gadjovich so don’t get yours hopes up seattle will take on any money without assets attached 

[IBatch]

On 6/5/2021 at 7:22 PM, Canuckster86 said:

Pearson had a down year, yet we gave him a 3 year extension at barely a pay cut...piss poor GM decision imo. Guaranteed you can sign a UFA who will be better for less $$ and term. I hope Seattle takes Oscar Meyer or LE, give something up but clear 6m in cap space. Keep Holtby for 1 more year as it gives Dipietro 1 more full AHL year to keep improving. Can also trade Holtby at deadline to a contender with retention and finish the year with Dipietro as a back up if we are out of the playoff picture again next TDL

Please explain to the class, how a 3.25 x 3 deal for LW Pearson in his prime, is a piss poor deal?   Pretty decent contract for a middle six vet.    I wanted to trade him for over a year.   Didn't happen, but it's beyond reproach as far as actual dollars and term goes, thank you covid.   Didn't Pearson pick it up after the deal was signed too? For sure he left money on the table even in a flat cap world.    Who else does the team have on LW?  Podz is a RW.   Hogs can move over for sure.    If we ever want to play Miller as a 3C we are going to need both these guys on the left side and Ferland back.    

[Alflives]

7 hours ago, billabong said:

Seattle isn’t taking a 6m 4/5 Dman 

 

Right now we are poised to lose macewan, Lind or gadjovich so don’t get yours hopes up seattle will take on any money without assets attached 

If Seattle takes one of Lind, Big Mac, or Gads we’re okay with that.  No big loss.  Myers will be protected.  

[IBatch]

On 6/7/2021 at 9:24 AM, mll said:

 

Seattle's owner Leiweke says analytics is more than a department, it's a way of life.

 

The NHL is introducing puck and tracking technology.  They probably wouldn't invest that kind of money and effort if teams did not see value in it.  Teams are apparently looking to increase their analytics hire - Friedman tweeted just a couple of weeks ago: "As tracking data grows in NHL, you’re going to see a number of teams build out their analytics department".  Several analytics' websites have shut down over the years as they are being hired by NHL teams.

 

Teams across the league probably use some form of tracking technology for their analytics now - Sportlogiq, CSA and there are probably others out there.

 

Some of the best teams in the league are using analytics to identify fit and areas for improvement - Colorado, Tampa, Carolina and Vegas notably.  Barry Trotz talks of how analytics has helped him improve his coaching and win a Cup.   

 

Seattle went out and hired Alexandra Mandrycky who was co-founder of the website war-on-ice to head that department.  WAR is the acronym for win above replacement.  The site closed when they were hired by the Wild - Minnesota is still using the tools that was developed while with them.

 

When Seattle looked to hire their GM, they had their analytics department heavily involved.  They didn't only evaluate drafting record but also efficiency of contract signings and trades.  They insist that they want to be an organisation that knows how to evaluate players - players have a price tag range for what they bring and overpaying is not efficient.

 

Ron Francis in Carolina hired Eric Tulsky who was running an analytics website.  He is still with Carolina and has been promoted to AGM since.  Seattle's owner Leiweke calls Francis a visionary who understood early the competitive advantage to look into analytics and technology.

 

Given the quotes by ownership and their investment in the department and approach to date, it seems reasonable enough to think that Seattle will want to involve their analytics department in identifying their roster.

 

One of their analyst and SFU alumn actually spelled out his role in the expansion draft to CTV last August.  Extract:

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/sfu-alum-crunches-the-numbers-to-give-seattle-kraken-an-edge-1.5058508

 

You won't see Chu on the ice for the NHL expansion franchise, but the team's quantitative analyst will have an enormous influence on the players who do make the roster.

 

The Simon Fraser University alum uses sports analytics to assess hockey talent and appraise overlooked —or overblown —potential.

 

"On the pro-player evaluation, this helps us evaluate who we think is good defensively, who we think is good offensively and adding a numbers approach," said Chu, pointing out the stats can either back up what a scout sees or put it into doubt. 

 

“We're not just using the eye test but looking across multiple games and multiple seasons to see how a player produces over that time span,” he said.

[...]

With Seattle, Chu's analysis will help the Kraken make its picks during the NHL expansion draft next summer. And his data will help establish what a player is worth.

 

"We can look at things like passes and zone entries and zone exits and the successfulness of those events with different players on the ice for different teams in different situations," he said, describing what many hockey fans might know in the most simple terms as driving the net or clearing the puck.

This is all true but it's never going to be anything but something added to the toolbox.  Chakya and Dubas were analytic gurus - but they both can't even do simple math it takes when negotiating contracts (AM, Tavares, Nylander, Marner, Keller) .... WAR had Alex freaking Steen as their "best player in the NHL" using their "systems", over Crosby ... and let's say another 30 or so guys one year.    MIN enjoy the WAR help.   

 

Yes a lot of data is going to come in from what the puck tells us i guess.    Glad folks still have their eyeballs too.   Wonder who the next "best player in the NHL" will be given all this data.    Not holding my breath.    Just glad PIT ruined the analytic party movement over possession stats.    That to me at least was hilarious.    Yes important.   No not the be all end all like it was starting to be portrayed as.   Counter-attack, deliberately allowing teams to take low percentage shots to regain possession and catch their D flat footed almost single handedly buried a 7 year movement at the time.    Nobody cares as much about who had the puck for 55% instead of 50% of the time do they?      A lot of this stuff is fluff.   Guys creating jobs to get a team an edge i suppose.    But no teams driven by analytics has won a darn thing yet. 

[IBatch]

7 hours ago, billabong said:

Seattle isn’t taking a 6m 4/5 Dman 

 

Right now we are poised to lose macewan, Lind or gadjovich so don’t get yours hopes up seattle will take on any money without assets attached 

They have quite a few models taking Dumba but that's it.    Makes more sense then taking Myers in many ways too.  They do have Pavelski, Oshie and Palat eyed for their top line as well.   So they are willing to select some money (that's a heck of a lot more then our top line cost last year and more then it will be once EP is signed likely too).  

 

Where Seattle wins the most is cheap serviceable middle six and second pairing D's, and a ton of guys like Gads to choose from.    The most recent model i saw they had IMO, a better team on paper then Vegas got, and only spent 66.4 ..... they have plans to capatalize on covid big time.   Some models have them taking Holtby, some don't.   Think that is probably the best we can hope for.   And it's scary how good that team might be right off the hop.   Bright side is some of the fluff on this site will bail and go worship them instead i suppose.   Sure they will hang on to troll us because the CDC is the best and most used hockey forum in the NHL.    Battle of the Pacific Northwest is coming. 

[mll]

44 minutes ago, IBatch said:

This is all true but it's never going to be anything but something added to the toolbox.  Chakya and Dubas were analytic gurus - but they both can't even do simple math it takes when negotiating contracts (AM, Tavares, Nylander, Marner, Keller) .... WAR had Alex freaking Steen as their "best player in the NHL" using their "systems", over Crosby ... and let's say another 30 or so guys one year.    MIN enjoy the WAR help.   

 

Yes a lot of data is going to come in from what the puck tells us i guess.    Glad folks still have their eyeballs too.   Wonder who the next "best player in the NHL" will be given all this data.    Not holding my breath.    Just glad PIT ruined the analytic party movement over possession stats.    That to me at least was hilarious.    Yes important.   No not the be all end all like it was starting to be portrayed as.   Counter-attack, deliberately allowing teams to take low percentage shots to regain possession and catch their D flat footed almost single handedly buried a 7 year movement at the time.    Nobody cares as much about who had the puck for 55% instead of 50% of the time do they?      A lot of this stuff is fluff.   Guys creating jobs to get a team an edge i suppose.    But no teams driven by analytics has won a darn thing yet. 

 

Seattle are the ones making the decision and they believe in analytics.

 

Vegas, Colorado, Tampa and NYI are still standing.  McPhee even says he trust analytics more than the eye test. 

 

Edited June 10, 2021 by mll

[JM_]

51 minutes ago, Alflives said:

If Seattle takes one of Lind, Big Mac, or Gads we’re okay with that.  No big loss.  Myers will be protected.  

if all we give up over two expansion drafts is Sbisa and Gadjovich, we should be laughing. Or maybe crying because thats all we had. But still. 

[JM_]

6 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Seattle are the ones making the decision and they believe in analytics.

 

Vegas, Colorado, Tampa and NYI are still standing.  McPhee even says he trust analytics more than the eye test. 

 

I think we need to take these kinds of comments with a grain of salt. I'm sure he won't love Pietrangelo's fancy stats when he's 38. Even GMs that say they believe in analytics make "now" moves that won't line up with this philosophy later on. 

 

For Myers, maybe Seattle takes him because they believe they can flip him for more assets later. 

 

 

Edited June 10, 2021 by Jimmy McGill

[mll]

1 hour ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I think we need to take these kinds of comments with a grain of salt. I'm sure he won't love Pietrangelo's fancy stats when he's 38. Even GMs that say they believe in analytics make "now" moves that won't line up with this philosophy later on. 

 

For Myers, maybe Seattle takes him because they believe they can flip him for more assets later. 

 

 

 

McPhee's comment is provocative and obviously shouldn't be taken at full face value but there is benefit in using tracking technology and it's not just for fluff.  He says public stats are useless btw.

 

Seems unlikely in a flat cap environment.  Francis talks of only needing 23 players.  Doesn't sound like they will be targeting extra players to flip.  Vegas had some trouble unloading players.

 

I could see them picking someone on behalf of another team in a pre-arranged trade.  Other teams also have access to the lists and could arrange for Seattle to pick someone for them for an asset.  

 

Really not a lot of cap space around and teams have to be really mindful how they use it up.  There are also probably more and more teams using some form of tracking technology or analytics to evaluate players with the cap being flat and the more limited in-person scouting the past year.  They will likely want to cover all angles and make sure that they've uncovered all the weaknesses/strengths.

 

Edited June 10, 2021 by mll

[JM_]

1 hour ago, mll said:

 

McPhee's comment is provocative and obviously shouldn't be taken at full face value but there is benefit in using tracking technology and it's not just for fluff.  He says public stats are useless btw.

 

Seems unlikely in a flat cap environment.  Francis talks of only needing 23 players.  Doesn't sound like they will be targeting extra players to flip.  Vegas had some trouble unloading players.

 

I could see them picking someone on behalf of another team in a pre-arranged trade.  Other teams also have access to the lists and could arrange for Seattle to pick someone for them for an asset.  

 

Really not a lot of cap space around and teams have to be really mindful how they use it up.  There are also probably more and more teams using some form of tracking technology or analytics to evaluate players with the cap being flat and the more limited in-person scouting the past year.  They will likely want to cover all angles and make sure that they've uncovered all the weaknesses/strengths.

 

A prearranged deal is the kind of thing i could see happening if Jim exposed Myers.

[aGENT]

4 hours ago, mll said:

 

Seattle are the ones making the decision and they believe in analytics.

 

Vegas, Colorado, Tampa and NYI are still standing.  McPhee even says he trust analytics more than the eye test. 

 

Analytics aren't a 'belief' system. They're a modeling, evaluation tool. 

 

Are there even any teams not using analytics these days?  SEA isn't alone on some bleeding edge island here.

 

[mll]

13 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Analytics aren't a 'belief' system. They're a modeling, evaluation tool. 

 

Are there even any teams not using analytics these days?  SEA isn't alone on some bleeding edge island here.

 

Didn't say otherwise.  Was responding to a post doubting analytics when it's now widely used.  

 

Edited June 10, 2021 by mll

[aGENT]

6 minutes ago, mll said:

Didn't say otherwise.  Was responding to a post doubting analytics when it's now widely used.  

 

As for the OP and relation to analytics, I still think that, mediocre analytics or not, SEA takes a legit NHL, top 4 D over an unproven AHL'er with a history of below average skating.

 

That isn't about 'doubting' analytics.

[Dats hockey]

On 6/9/2021 at 12:56 AM, Patel Bure said:

To Seattle:  9th OA + Holtby + Myers 

To Vancouver:  7th rounder

What is this. I wouldn’t do Holtby for a 7th or myers or our 9th ao. You need to retire from thinking about trades

[goblix]

11 hours ago, aGENT said:

As for the OP and relation to analytics, I still think that, mediocre analytics or not, SEA takes a legit NHL, top 4 D over an unproven AHL'er with a history of below average skating.

 

That isn't about 'doubting' analytics.

I concur with this.

 

Besides I said this before... Depending on the way Seattle wants to handle the cap it is quite plausible that the retain 50% to regain assets because hey 3m x 2-3 years for a 3-4 defender that has some unique traits and has PP ability could return a decent pick

[Patel Bure]

19 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

A prearranged deal is the kind of thing i could see happening if Jim exposed Myers.

Hence, my (unpopular) idea of using our 1st to entice Seattle in taking both Myers and Roussel from us.   Ideally, we’d use Eriksson instead of Myers here, or just Eriksson by himself, but I can’t see Seattle or any team taking on Eriksson’s contract.  Would be very pleasantly surprised if wrong however.

 

Get Myers and Roussel off the books, and then go hard after Hamilton or Danault + one other minor piece.   Since Hamilton looks like he wants to re-sign with Carolina, I’d go really hard after Danault and secure him as a long term piece to set up our top 9 for years.  
 

My line of thinking is that IF the Canucks were to use their 2021 1st as a sweetener, then....

 

1) 9 million minimum should be the expectation with regards to clearing salary

2) A mass majority of this freed up money NEEDS to go towards ONE of Danault or Hamilton (Hamilton would likely take 9, while Danault would take 6).