Optimal 21-22 Season Composition for Success and Beyond

[nuckfanfromafrica]

I've always been an advocate of a team composition that has strength down the middle, skilled and balanced top 9, and aggressive style of play. Expressed this in another piece before the start of 20-21 season ("Optimal Team Analysis 20-21).

 

Glad that Benning & co focuse going into the offseason and season are: to continue to draft well,  constructing a skilled Top 9 that is aggressive, Organizational reviews  e.tc.

 

Below is my take on what could/should be done:

 

Coaching Philosophy/Change

 

It definitely has been a good start with the recent coaching additions/shuffle:

 

• Brad Shaw - adds veteran experience, a wealth of defensive knowledge, ability to develop players. Another often overlooked value of this addition, is that he adds a wealth of knowledge to our power play (having seen what works on PP's, after having to defend against them for years).

 

•  Jason King - had one of the better AHL power plays in 19-20 season. He believes in having a balanced effective 2 units that are equally adapt. Additionally, his PP features a lot of movement. A key element that our recent power play has been lacking thus making it easier to defend and ineffective. He has also shown ability to adjust in game.

 

• Kyle Gustafson - eye in the sky for in game adjustments. Great hockey mind.

 

DRAFT

 

Drafting today based on organizational need will be a mistake as needs constantly evolve. Organizationally we need Top end Right Dman and Center(s). This Draft unfortunately doesn't feature top end, franchise defining talent to fill our RHD need.

 

I know the popular option at 9 is to draft MacTavish. Big body already playing against men. His current size will not be an advantage in the NHL once he is ready as most NHL  forwards are already around his size. Our Prospect pool already has decent forwards with size Gadjovich, Kunz, Lind, e.t.c and fiesty forwards/Centers in Arvid Costmar, Dmitri Zlodeyev, Carson Focht, William Lockwood. We currently lack high end forward/center skill in prospect pool.

 

The best available forward at 9 is Kent Johnson. He is a potential steal of the draft. He possess the elite puck skill, hockey IQ and creativity in the mold of Patrick Kane, Ellias Pettersson, Barzel,  Zegras (the pick some wanted before Podkolzin. Almost feels like a redo/destiny when we missed out on Makar and ended up with Quinn as a consolidation prize the next year. i digress)

 

Creativity and smarts will always dwarf size. He is equally adapt in the center position and wing. Already has decent height at 6;1" . The knock on him is that he is slight at 165lbs (a similar knock on Pettersson in his draft year). Most prospect drafted this year are not going to be playing in the NHL right away and as such affords him time to add size. It is not unlikely that he will top 186 - 191 in 2-3 yrs.

 

 

EXPANSION DRAFT:

 

Protect 7 forwards, 3 d and Tender: Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat, J.T Miller, Elia Pettersson, Gadjovich, Tyler Motte, Pearson(Bold move would be to expose Pearson if you get an impact foward), Hughes, Olli, Myers, Demko.

 

RFA SIGNINGS:

 

• Resigning Pettersson and Quinn at approximately $7million average cap for 6 or 5yrs each
• Resigning Joulevi $1million average for 2 yrs
• Resigning Lind $925,000 average
• Add RFA depth for comet and call up

 

UFA SIGNINGS:

 

1. Add 2 physical RHD to complement skilled LHD along with depth

 

• David Savard (RHD) on a $3.2million average 3yr term (brad Shaw connection)
• Travis Harmonic (RHD) on a 1-2yr $2.1million average term.
• Resign Alex Edler (LHD) on a 1yr $2 million cap (to finish up career as a Canuck)
• additional depth in Alex Biega, Jard Tinordi at league minimum.
• Target Seth Jones (season after) as a long term RHD option (approx $7.5 million cap average for 6yr)

 

 

2. Add skilled multi positional forwards (Wing/Center) and cheap 4th line penalty killing forward

 

• Eric Haula (C/LW) on a 2yr $2.1million average cap hit. A speedy big body with skill and adapt at finishing in front of the crease (a Virtanen/Gadjovich hybrid).
• Mikael Granlund (C/RW) on a 3yr $4.5million average cap for 2-3yrs (skilled playmaker, drives the net and defensively strong and good penalty killer as well).
• Brandon Sutter (C/RW) on a 1yr $1million cap (Alternatively Nick Bonino).

 

 

 

BUYOUTS:

 

assuming Louie retires after not playing & collecting free money and Virtanen's contract is terminated (unfortunately needs a change of environment).

 

• Antoine Roussel: $1,733,334      

 

Recapture Fees

• Roberto Luongo: $3,035,212

 

DEPTH DOWN THE MIDDLE AND USE FORWARD PAIRS:

 

• Pettersson & Granlund: Centering a line by himself. He is more effective and most engaged when he is the play driver and not deferring to others. Complement him with a skilled playmaking forward (Granlund) and a high IQ big bodied forward that scores from the crease (Haula). Almost reminiscent of his first NHL season 10 games, when he was flanked by Loui (Haula) and Goldobin (Grandlund). Knock on him has been that his faceoff is not strong. You can have a strong faceoff man draw in (Horvat, Miller). However Granlund is equally good at faceoffs as a center playing on the wing.

 

• J.T. Miller & Podkolzin: Both driving play and crashing the net with a finisher on the Left wing trailing the play in Boeser (playing his offwing to better utilize his shot)

 

• Horvat & Pearson: flanked by Hoglander driving play from the wing.

 

• Motte & Highmore: speedy high pressure bottom forward to keep intensity high.

 

DUAL THREAT POWER PLAY UNITS WITH LOTS OF MOVEMENT:

 

PP1:

 

Movement between Boeser (Left wall & point), Horvat (bumper & grease), Hughes (Point)

Movement between Miller (right down low & grease) & Pettersson (Right wall & point) and Hughes

 

PP2:

 

Podkozin on the right wall with Hoglander on the left wall. Haula as crease presence and bumper, Myers as point shot complemented by Granlund as other rover play driver.

 

CALL UP DEPTH IN AHL:

 

• Jack Rathbone (LHD skill depth), Tinordi (LHD), Biega (RHD), Madison (RHD)
• Lockwood, Hawryluk, Michaelis, 

 

 

SUMMARY OF 2021- 2022 SEASON ROSTER, PP & PK

 

 

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$81,293,546	$0	$1,050,000	$206,454

Delete Signed Player

Buyout

Add to Trade

 

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Haula, Erik $2,100,000 C, LW   UFA	Pettersson, Elias $7,000,000 C   RFA	Granlund, Mikael $4,500,000 C, RW   UFA
Boeser, Brock $5,875,000 RW   RFA - 1	Miller, J.T. $5,250,000 LW, C   UFA - 2	Podkolzin, Vasily $925,000 RW   RFA - 3
Pearson, Tanner $3,250,000 LW NTC UFA - 3	Horvat, Bo $5,500,000 C   UFA - 2	Höglander, Nils $891,667 LW, RW   RFA - 2
Motte, Tyler $1,225,000 LW, RW   UFA - 1	Sutter, Brandon $1,000,000 RW, C   UFA	Highmore, Matthew $725,000 LW, RW   RFA - 1
Lind, Kole $975,000 RW   RFA	Gadjovich, Jonah $783,333 LW   RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Hughes, Quinn $7,000,000 LD   RFA	Savard, David $3,200,000 RD   UFA	Holtby, Braden $4,300,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Schmidt, Nate $5,950,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 4	Hamonic, Travis $2,100,000 RD UFA	Demko, Thatcher $5,000,000 G   UFA - 5
Juolevi, Olli $975,000 LD   RFA	Myers, Tyler $6,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3
Edler, Alexander $2,000,000 LD UFA

 

Special Teams (Optional)

Power Play 1
Boeser, B.		Horvat, B.		Miller, J.
	Hughes, Q.		Pettersson, E.

Power Play 2
Höglander, N.		Haula, E.		Podkolzin, V.
	Myers, T.		Granlund, M.

Penalty Kill 1
	Sutter, B.		Motte, T.
	Hamonic, T.		Savard, D.

Penalty Kill 2
	Horvat, B.		Podkolzin, V.
	Juolevi, O.		Myers, T.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[smithers joe]

lots of thought put into your plan. i would like to have seen rathbone and lockwood on your list. i like that you had cap hits on each player.

[DeNiro]

Very thorough breakdown.

 

I like a lot of those moves but I would be a little disappointed if we don’t uprgrade our top 6 or top 4 more than that.

 

I fully expect Benning to be making a trade leading up to the expansion draft. I think we address those needs there.

[J.I.A.H.N]

Great job! And a hell of a lot of work!

 

I do not agree with all of what you have said, but I think you have addressed some area's that need attention.

 

I am going to think about it some more before commenting further.

 

Again, great job!

[J.I.A.H.N]

One thing that comes to mind, is who ever we draft, sign or trade for, needs to be able to stand up for himself. This does not mean fight, it means being an aggressive SOB to play against. Yes, they still have to meet the criteria for that position, but not be downy soft.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 13, 2021 by janisahockeynut

[fanfor42]

Thanks for your work. Well thought out.  Couple things though.  I think nux have bonus overages against the cap for 21-22 of 649k to contemplate in your model.

 

Also not sure Haula is a fit on the top line with Petey? 

 

But good job. 

[-AJ-]

Nice work. I'm not entirely certain that Eriksson will actually retire and that we'll be able to terminate Virtanen's contract and I think the cap is probably the most difficult part of making your plan work. There are a few other contracts I'm not certain about, but overall, good work.

[MeanSeanBean]

Awesome post. I think overall it's a well thought out plan that would definitely address some of our glaring issues. Personally I would prefer we be more conservative this off season and save our money for a big ticket FA like Parayko, Jones, or Ristolainen. But JB seems keen on being aggressive this offseason, which I understand due to the train wreck we had last season.

 

If we picked up a legit top 4 RH defensemen next season in FA it would go a long way processing our club. But if we spend to much now I'm concerned we won't have the money to pull that off next year. Regardless I'm confident JB will pull something off and I'm excited to see the team next year.

[NewbieCanuckFan]

1 hour ago, -AJ- said:

Nice work. I'm not entirely certain that Eriksson will actually retire and that we'll be able to terminate Virtanen's contract and I think the cap is probably the most difficult part of making your plan work. There are a few other contracts I'm not certain about, but overall, good work.

With the AHL affiliate now in Abby, I’d say the chances of Eriksson retiring are pretty slim.  Pay me 3 million in cash, and I’ll move to Abby, buy a home with a chunk of that cash (even after taxes, it’ll be a free home) and sit on my ass watching TV on my couch for a year.  Value of that bought home might even be higher after a year.  

[-AJ-]

2 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

With the AHL affiliate now in Abby, I’d say the chances of Eriksson retiring are pretty slim.  Pay me 3 million in cash, and I’ll move to Abby, buy a home with a chunk of that cash (even after taxes, it’ll be a free home) and sit on my ass watching TV on my couch for a year.  Value of that bought home might even be higher after a year.  

I think a buyout is probably more likely than retirement.

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

With the AHL affiliate now in Abby, I’d say the chances of Eriksson retiring are pretty slim.  Pay me 3 million in cash, and I’ll move to Abby, buy a home with a chunk of that cash (even after taxes, it’ll be a free home) and sit on my ass watching TV on my couch for a year.  Value of that bought home might even be higher after a year.  

No escrow on guys in the minors too, so Loui gets the full amount.  

[Nuxfanabroad]

Nice work. Might include a pic of a shoehorn, next to the cap #s. Hopefully we can squeeze it all in to fit !

 

edit: Btw, Hughes doesn't require protection for the ED

Edited June 13, 2021 by Nuxfanabroad

[wildcam]

4 hours ago, nuckfanfromafrica said:

I've always been an advocate of a team composition that has strength down the middle, skilled and balanced top 9, and aggressive style of play. Expressed this in another piece before the start of 20-21 season ("Optimal Team Analysis 20-21).

 

Glad that Benning & co focuse going into the offseason and season are: to continue to draft well,  constructing a skilled Top 9 that is aggressive, Organizational reviews  e.tc.

 

Below is my take on what could/should be done:

 

Coaching Philosophy/Change

 

It definitely has been a good start with the recent coaching additions/shuffle:

 

• Brad Shaw - adds veteran experience, a wealth of defensive knowledge, ability to develop players. Another often overlooked value of this addition, is that he adds a wealth of knowledge to our power play (having seen what works on PP's, after having to defend against them for years).

 

•  Jason King - had one of the better AHL power plays in 19-20 season. He believes in having a balanced effective 2 units that are equally adapt. Additionally, his PP features a lot of movement. A key element that our recent power play has been lacking thus making it easier to defend and ineffective. He has also shown ability to adjust in game.

 

• Kyle Gustafson - eye in the sky for in game adjustments. Great hockey mind.

 

DRAFT

 

Drafting today based on organizational need will be a mistake as needs constantly evolve. Organizationally we need Top end Right Dman and Center(s). This Draft unfortunately doesn't feature top end, franchise defining talent to fill our RHD need.

 

I know the popular option at 9 is to draft MacTavish. Big body already playing against men. His current size will not be an advantage in the NHL once he is ready as most NHL  forwards are already around his size. Our Prospect pool already has decent forwards with size Gadjovich, Kunz, Lind, e.t.c and fiesty forwards/Centers in Arvid Costmar, Dmitri Zlodeyev, Carson Focht, William Lockwood. We currently lack high end forward/center skill in prospect pool.

 

The best available forward at 9 is Kent Johnson. He is a potential steal of the draft. He possess the elite puck skill, hockey IQ and creativity in the mold of Patrick Kane, Ellias Pettersson, Barzel,  Zegras (the pick some wanted before Podkolzin. Almost feels like a redo/destiny when we missed out on Makar and ended up with Quinn as a consolidation prize the next year. i digress)

 

Creativity and smarts will always dwarf size. He is equally adapt in the center position and wing. Already has decent height at 6;1" . The knock on him is that he is slight at 165lbs (a similar knock on Pettersson in his draft year). Most prospect drafted this year are not going to be playing in the NHL right away and as such affords him time to add size. It is not unlikely that he will top 186 - 191 in 2-3 yrs.

 

 

EXPANSION DRAFT:

 

Protect 7 forwards, 3 d and Tender: Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat, J.T Miller, Elia Pettersson, Gadjovich, Tyler Motte, Pearson(Bold move would be to expose Pearson if you get an impact foward), Hughes, Olli, Myers, Demko.

 

RFA SIGNINGS:

 

• Resigning Pettersson and Quinn at approximately $7million average cap for 6 or 5yrs each
• Resigning Joulevi $1million average for 2 yrs
• Resigning Lind $925,000 average
• Add RFA depth for comet and call up

 

UFA SIGNINGS:

 

1. Add 2 physical RHD to complement skilled LHD along with depth

 

• David Savard (RHD) on a $3.2million average 3yr term (brad Shaw connection)
• Travis Harmonic (RHD) on a 1-2yr $2.1million average term.
• Resign Alex Edler (LHD) on a 1yr $2 million cap (to finish up career as a Canuck)
• additional depth in Alex Biega, Jard Tinordi at league minimum.
• Target Seth Jones (season after) as a long term RHD option (approx $7.5 million cap average for 6yr)

 

 

2. Add skilled multi positional forwards (Wing/Center) and cheap 4th line penalty killing forward

 

• Eric Haula (C/LW) on a 2yr $2.1million average cap hit. A speedy big body with skill and adapt at finishing in front of the crease (a Virtanen/Gadjovich hybrid).
• Mikael Granlund (C/RW) on a 3yr $4.5million average cap for 2-3yrs (skilled playmaker, drives the net and defensively strong and good penalty killer as well).
• Brandon Sutter (C/RW) on a 1yr $1million cap (Alternatively Nick Bonino).

 

 

 

BUYOUTS:

 

assuming Louie retires after not playing & collecting free money and Virtanen's contract is terminated (unfortunately needs a change of environment).

 

• Antoine Roussel: $1,733,334      

 

Recapture Fees

• Roberto Luongo: $3,035,212

 

DEPTH DOWN THE MIDDLE AND USE FORWARD PAIRS:

 

• Pettersson & Granlund: Centering a line by himself. He is more effective and most engaged when he is the play driver and not deferring to others. Complement him with a skilled playmaking forward (Granlund) and a high IQ big bodied forward that scores from the crease (Haula). Almost reminiscent of his first NHL season 10 games, when he was flanked by Loui (Haula) and Goldobin (Grandlund). Knock on him has been that his faceoff is not strong. You can have a strong faceoff man draw in (Horvat, Miller). However Granlund is equally good at faceoffs as a center playing on the wing.

 

• J.T. Miller & Podkolzin: Both driving play and crashing the net with a finisher on the Left wing trailing the play in Boeser (playing his offwing to better utilize his shot)

 

• Horvat & Pearson: flanked by Hoglander driving play from the wing.

 

• Motte & Highmore: speedy high pressure bottom forward to keep intensity high.

 

DUAL THREAT POWER PLAY UNITS WITH LOTS OF MOVEMENT:

 

PP1:

 

Movement between Boeser (Left wall & point), Horvat (bumper & grease), Hughes (Point)

Movement between Miller (right down low & grease) & Pettersson (Right wall & point) and Hughes

 

PP2:

 

Podkozin on the right wall with Hoglander on the left wall. Haula as crease presence and bumper, Myers as point shot complemented by Granlund as other rover play driver.

 

CALL UP DEPTH IN AHL:

 

• Jack Rathbone (LHD skill depth), Tinordi (LHD), Biega (RHD), Madison (RHD)
• Lockwood, Hawryluk, Michaelis, 

 

 

SUMMARY OF 2021- 2022 SEASON ROSTER, PP & PK

 

 

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$81,293,546	$0	$1,050,000	$206,454

Delete Signed Player

Buyout

Add to Trade

 

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Haula, Erik $2,100,000 C, LW   UFA	Pettersson, Elias $7,000,000 C   RFA	Granlund, Mikael $4,500,000 C, RW   UFA
Boeser, Brock $5,875,000 RW   RFA - 1	Miller, J.T. $5,250,000 LW, C   UFA - 2	Podkolzin, Vasily $925,000 RW   RFA - 3
Pearson, Tanner $3,250,000 LW NTC UFA - 3	Horvat, Bo $5,500,000 C   UFA - 2	Höglander, Nils $891,667 LW, RW   RFA - 2
Motte, Tyler $1,225,000 LW, RW   UFA - 1	Sutter, Brandon $1,000,000 RW, C   UFA	Highmore, Matthew $725,000 LW, RW   RFA - 1
Lind, Kole $975,000 RW   RFA	Gadjovich, Jonah $783,333 LW   RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Hughes, Quinn $7,000,000 LD   RFA	Savard, David $3,200,000 RD   UFA	Holtby, Braden $4,300,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Schmidt, Nate $5,950,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 4	Hamonic, Travis $2,100,000 RD UFA	Demko, Thatcher $5,000,000 G   UFA - 5
Juolevi, Olli $975,000 LD   RFA	Myers, Tyler $6,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3
Edler, Alexander $2,000,000 LD UFA

 

Special Teams (Optional)

Power Play 1
Boeser, B.		Horvat, B.		Miller, J.
	Hughes, Q.		Pettersson, E.

Power Play 2
Höglander, N.		Haula, E.		Podkolzin, V.
	Myers, T.		Granlund, M.

Penalty Kill 1
	Sutter, B.		Motte, T.
	Hamonic, T.		Savard, D.

Penalty Kill 2
	Horvat, B.		Podkolzin, V.
	Juolevi, O.		Myers, T.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rathbone makes Canucks, talent and skill no quetions..

Sutter---Big no alway injured

Granlund -- No

Edler -- No  -  time to move on 

Hamonic - 2 X 2.1  Need him..

Appleton 6'2 - speed 25 points -56 GP  on 3rd line with Jets --    Lind

Graves 6'5 , 28 -- plays 20 min, tough..  2nd rounder 2022

Trade Scmidt for another # 3 D man... Scmidt needs to play more for his offensive game behind Hughes here..Rathbone will be ready for bigger role also..

[wildcam]

Just now, wildcam said:

Rathbone makes Canucks, talent and skill no quetions..

Sutter---Big no always injured

Granlund -- No

Edler -- No  -  time to move on 

Hamonic - 2 X 2.1  Need him..

Appleton 6'2 - speed 25 points -56 GP  on 3rd line with Jets --    Lind

Graves 6'5 , 28 -- plays 20 min, tough..  2nd rounder 2022

Trade Scmidt for another # 3 D man... Scmidt needs to play more for his offensive game behind Hughes here..Rathbone will be ready for bigger role also..

 

[Dixon Ward]

I would like to see the following:

 

Grigorenko 1.5 x 2

Big, good skater, Russian to help Podkolzin transition,  plays C or LW versatile only 27

Wennberg 3.5 x 3

Good skater, offensive upside and good all around player, versatile

 

Top 9

Miller EP Boes

Grigorenko Horvat Hogz

Pearson Wennberg Podz

 

Miller and Grigorenko both also play center and with Lind and Gadjovich knocking on the door, we could have a very solid and versatile top 9.

[Dumb Nuck]

That’s a heck of a post but success is really quite simple: Fire Green!

[IBatch]

This sure would be nice.   A ton of moving parts that require this to happen.   Can't think of a better outcome though.  

8 hours ago, Dumb Nuck said:

That’s a heck of a post but success is really quite simple: Fire Green!

Dumb Nuck he won't get fired.   Maybe we could fire the stick boy though, or Janice in accounting? 

[IBatch]

17 hours ago, wildcam said:

Rathbone makes Canucks, talent and skill no quetions..

Sutter---Big no alway injured

Granlund -- No

Edler -- No  -  time to move on 

Hamonic - 2 X 2.1  Need him..

Appleton 6'2 - speed 25 points -56 GP  on 3rd line with Jets --    Lind

Graves 6'5 , 28 -- plays 20 min, tough..  2nd rounder 2022

Trade Scmidt for another # 3 D man... Scmidt needs to play more for his offensive game behind Hughes here..Rathbone will be ready for bigger role also..

For me at least, OJ is a better option then Rathbone.   Guess we will find out. If Rathbone is that good - then QHs should be flipped for a RHD. 

[IBatch]

19 hours ago, -AJ- said:

I think a buyout is probably more likely than retirement.

Barely worth the trouble.   At this point, if i was the owner, id be burying him in Abbotsford.   Let him know he won't be getting any games.   No more NHL treatment.   Take it or leave it.  If he had one honourable bone in his body he'd retire.   He didn't come close to earning that deal, even though his career said that it was a fair one. 

[Alflives]

5 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Barely worth the trouble.   At this point, if i was the owner, id be burying him in Abbotsford.   Let him know he won't be getting any games.   No more NHL treatment.   Take it or leave it.  If he had one honourable bone in his body he'd retire.   He didn't come close to earning that deal, even though his career said that it was a fair one. 

I don't know what escrow is for the coming season (30%?) but I do know AHL guys don't pay it.  So Loui would get his full pay in the Abbotsford.  I think he would actually prefer that.