knucklehead91 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said: But you're not thinking of it at all from Tampa's point of view. Solid players on good contracts are worth more than their weight in gold to them. We saw what they were willing to give up in assets for Barclay Goodrow and Blake Colman. They only have one more year of Cernak on his current darling of a contract, and moving him now does practically nothing to relieve their cap woes. You just couldn't be more far off on your interpretation of the situation. And be realistic, nobody really cares about sticking it to Tampa Bay. Go ahead and try, some other team is going to be more than happy to work with them for both team's mutual benefit. Might be your division rival. Oh sorry, actually the Arizona trade I didn't mind so much, it was the Reinhart deal that was more ridiculous. He's still RFA next summer, and you're giving up literally nothing of significant value. And on Jones, if he's signed Columbus will do better than that, if not it's way too much risk. But You aren't thinking about it from the rest of the league's POV. Tampa is more than likely going to win their 2nd cup. They have a cap crisis and contract renewal problems in the next couple years. No one is going to step in and over pay for anything. What favours have they done for anyone else in the league the last 6-7 years? Moving Cernak now for 0 cap in return and exposing a 5mil player to the ED gets them nearly 3mil under the cap. Tampa's POV is they have to figure out how to get cap creative and keep all the great young players while parting with the junk that they dont see as part of the future. Problem is...... They cant afford to keep everyone and they are going to lose a lot of those "Goodrows" and "Colemans" to free agency. No one will take a bad contract for them to continue winning. Other teams want their turn to win a cup or 2 in a row. Cernak has 2 years at 2.95 not one. Brayden Point is up for new ink next season, he'll be getting a 2 mil raise easily for his play. Now you have one guy getting a raise next season while your 3 RFAs are locked up, next season after that is the overlap of Points extension with Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachevs new contracts. Now how do you juggle that RFA situation AGAIN in the flat cap? They just played musical chairs in the off-season to get those 3 locked up on short term deals to go for a cup run. Teams are going to look at them and say "nope, not again Tampa, we aren't doing that for you again Brisebois, you've won 2 cups you can get lost" Tampa will probably have to part with a very good player and it will come down to the highest bidder which will be the lowest underseller. Why overpay for a guy they need to move in a short time because their cap will be FUBAR. They paid a bunch for Coleman and Goodrow and now they are UFAs and TBL is 5mil over the cap and cant even re-sign them. Doesn't really matter because they won a cup, they aren't going to sacrifice anything to try and keep the UFA's they are letting them walk. The league's POV is F U Tampa you won back to back cups and fooled around with the LTIR and Kucherov was 100% ready to play the moment he stepped on the ice, he clearly hasn't missed a step or had that hard of a time adjusting. What team is going to benefit from taking TBL's scraps. "Here's a 29-32 year old 5mil+ guy locked up for the next few years, you can take him off our hands for nearly free." How is Tampa going to keep these contracts that are worth more than their weight in gold? Like they have to make moves and no one is going to want to take something they dont want or dont see in their own teams future plans. Why take Johnson, Palat, Gourde etc are all 29 turning 30-32 when you want Cernak or Cirelli, Kucherov or Hedman. Teams arent going to be entirely interested in the other 3. They want someone that is going to make an impact AND have a few more good years of hockey left in the tank, not the 5mil 30 year old guy whos ski's are straightening out as their career begins the downward trend Palat has 1 year left at 5.3mil - turned 30 this year Johnson 3 more at 5mil - turning 31 this month Gourde 4 years at 5.166mil - turns 30 this year Look at Tampa's cap as it stands right now and their cap situations in the next few years TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING PROJECTED CAP HIT : $86,566,666 PROJECTED LTIR USED : $5,066,666 PROJECTED CAP SPACE : $0 ($0 ) CURRENT CAP SPACE : $0 TODAYS CAP HIT : $86,566,666 ROSTER SIZE: 19 CONTRACTS: 33/50 RESERVE LIST: 49/90 FORWARDS (12 - $52,591,666) TERMS POS STATUS ACQUIRED AGE CAP% 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Kucherov, Nikita NMC RW NHL Draft 28 11.7 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 Stamkos, Steven "C" NMC C, RW NHL Draft 31 10.4 $8,500,000 $8,500,000 $8,500,000 Point, Brayden C, RW NHL Draft 25 8.3 $6,750,000 RFA Palat, Ondrej M-NTC RW, LW NHL Draft 30 6.5 $5,300,000 UFA Gourde, Yanni NTC C, LW, RW NHL Signed 29 6.3 $5,166,666 $5,166,666 $5,166,666 $5,166,666 UFA Johnson, Tyler M-NTC RW, C NHL Signed 30 6.1 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 UFA Cirelli, Anthony C NHL Draft 23 5.9 $4,800,000 $4,800,000 RFA Killorn, Alex M-NTC LW NHL Draft 31 5.5 $4,450,000 $4,450,000 UFA Maroon, Patrick M-NTC LW, RW NHL Signed 33 1.1 $900,000 UFA Walcott, Daniel LW, LD NHL Trade 27 0.9 $750,000 $750,000 UFA Stephens, Mitchell C NHL Draft 24 0.9 $737,500 RFA Joseph, Mathieu C, LW, RW NHL Draft 24 0.9 $737,500 RFA Smith, Gemel C NHL Signed 27 UFA Goodrow, Barclay LW NHL Trade 28 UFA Coleman, Blake LW, RW NHL Trade 29 UFA Raddysh, Taylor RW NHL Draft 23 RFA Katchouk, Boris LW NHL Draft 23 RFA Colton, Ross C NHL Draft 24 RFA Barré-Boulet, Alex C NHL Signed 24 RFA TOTAL 27.0 64.5 $52,591,666 $38,166,666 $28,166,666 $14,666,666 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 DEFENSE (5 - $23,675,000) TERMS POS STATUS ACQUIRED AGE CAP% 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Hedman, Victor "A" NMC LD NHL Draft 30 9.7 $7,875,000 $7,875,000 $7,875,000 $7,875,000 UFA McDonagh, Ryan "A" NTC LD NHL Trade 32 8.3 $6,750,000 $6,750,000 $6,750,000 $6,750,000 $6,750,000 UFA Sergachev, Mikhail LD/RD NHL Trade 23 5.9 $4,800,000 $4,800,000 RFA Cernak, Erik RD NHL Trade 24 3.6 $2,950,000 $2,950,000 RFA Rutta, Jan RD NHL Signed 30 1.6 $1,300,000 UFA Claesson, Fredrik LD NHL Trade 28 UFA Savard, David RD NHL Trade 30 UFA Schenn, Luke RD NHL Signed 31 UFA Thomas, Ben RD NHL Draft 25 UFA G6 Foote, Cal RD NHL Draft 22 RFA Borgman, Andreas LD NHL Signed 26 UFA G6 TOTAL 27.4 29.0 $23,675,000 $22,375,000 $14,625,000 $14,625,000 $6,750,000 GOALIES (2 - $10,300,000) TERMS POS STATUS ACQUIRED AGE CAP% 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Vasilevskiy, Andrei NMC G NHL Draft 26 11.7 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 Martin, Spencer G NHL Signed 26 1.0 $800,000 UFA Gibson, Christopher G NHL Signed 28 UFA McElhinney, Curtis G NHL Signed 38 UFA TOTAL 29.5 12.6 $10,300,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 They are 5 mil over the cap, have 19 players signed and need to shed cap like crazy to prepare for the upcoming RFA deals in a flat cap world. They are not in a position of power, they used up that power to win a cup and are on the way to their 2nd in back to back years. Look at Pittsburgh after their 2 cup wins in back to back years. They gave up a lot to get Phil Kessel and then gave him away shortly after for next to nothing. Galchenyuk sucked and got moved quickly after that exchange. TRADE DETAILS Jun 29, 2019 Arizona Coyotes Acquire: Phil Kessel · $6,800,000 Dane Birks · $0 (AHL/JR) 2021 4th round pick (PIT - #122) Sum: $6,800,000 Change: +$1,900,000 Pittsburgh Penguins Acquire: Alex Galchenyuk · $4,900,000 Pierre-Olivier Joseph · $0 (AHL/JR) Sum: $4,900,000 Change: -$1,900,000 Jul 1, 2015 Pittsburgh Penguins Acquire: Phil Kessel ($1,200,000 retained - 15%) · $6,800,000 Tim Erixon · $600,000 Tyler Biggs · $0 (AHL/JR) 2016 conditional 2nd round pick* (PIT - #61 - Kasper Björkqvist) *Conditions: If Pittsburgh misses the 2016 playoffs, then Pittsburgh shall receive Toronto's 2017 2nd round pick. If Pittsburgh misses both the 2016 & 2017 playoffs, then Pittsburgh does not receive any pick from Toronto Result: Pittsburgh clinched 2016 playoff birth. Pittsburgh will receive Toronto's 2nd round pick (PIT) from Toronto. Sum: $7,400,000 Change: +$3,716,666 Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire: Scott Harrington · $589,167 Nick Spaling · $2,200,000 Kasperi Kapanen · $894,167 2016 conditional 1st round pick* (PIT - #30 - Sam Steel) 2016 3rd round pick (NJD - #72 - James Greenway) *Conditions: If Pittsburgh misses the 2016 playoffs, then Toronto will receive Pittsburgh's 2017 1st round pick. If Pittsburgh misses both the 2016 & 2017 playoffs, then the 2017 1st round pick to Toronto becomes a 2017 2nd round pick Result: Pittsburgh clinched 2016 playoff birth. Toronto will receive Pittsburgh's 2016 1st round pick Sum: $3,683,334 Change: -$3,716,666 Why trade away Kessel after a 92 and 82 point season, over 300 points in a 4 year span for Alex Galchenyuk and some other dud. 2015-16 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 82 26 33 59 18 9 24 10 12 22 4 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 82 23 47 70 20 3 25 8 15 23 2 2017-18 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 82 34 58 92 36 -4 12 1 8 9 2 2018-19 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 82 27 55 82 28 -19 4 1 1 2 2 2019-20 Arizona Coyotes NHL 70 14 24 38 22 -21 9 1 3 4 4 2020-21 Arizona Coyotes NHL 56 20 23 43 12 -17 Because they were not in a position of power, Kessel was rumoured to have attitude issues and no one was willing do them a solid favour after winning 2 cups, because every other team out there wants to win a cup. Thats a pretty lopsided trade. Where theres smoke, there's fire and no one is going to pay full price for players with attitude issues, players that want out of a city or a team that is running into cap/contract issues. Why would anyone want to take on 5mil in cap in the flat cap, especially if there is term to go with the flat cap for the next few years. Seth Jones wants out and its known, so I'd like to see another team pitch a couple 1st round picks one being a top 10 pick to acquire him along with a high end prospect to go with it. If Vancouver was to acquire him and be a competitive team next season, I don't see why Jones wouldn't want to re-sign with the core that we have coming up. We will begin to attract players, guys will be willing to waive their NMC's to come to an up and coming team. Anyways, it was all a fun alcohol inspired proposal. I dont think the value is too far off on some of the proposals. Looking back at the Reinhart proposal, it is a pretty lopsided deal, but if Juolevi can live up to his potential and Virtanen, with a fresh start in a new town with no distractions, can begin to get back on track, it could work out to be a really good deal for Buffalo. Of course this is all a bunch of what ifs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 3 hours ago, knucklehead91 said: Lets be real, no one is taking a 30+ player on a 5mil+ deal for any amount of term for TBL after they win a 2nd cup. I just dont see it happening, maybe I'm crazy, but something in Tampa has to give and its going to have to be something good. What do you think? I don't have a problem with what TBL did in the regular season. Their active roster of players was under $81.5m cap hit, like every other team. What p%$$ed me off was when they brought back Kucherov from LTIR magically in time for game 1 of the playoffs when cap doesn't matter. This is when they really screwed everyone. Suddenly they had a roster with almost $100m cap hit. It was all legit but it was also total BS. Having said that I would be quite happy to screw them while "helping them" to become cap compliant for next season. If Seattle selects a player such as Palat (which is predicted to be the most likely selection), then TBL still have to clear another one of their ~$5m contracts. I would offer them this deal: To VAN: Johnson + Foote + 2022 1st round pick To TBL: Highmore + 2023 3rd round pick They can take it or leave it. Remember Johnson has to submit a 20-team trade list. You can bet there are no teams with a ton of cap space like NJD, BUF, CBJ on that list. he wants to go somewhere good. This is going to drastically reduce the trade options for TBL and yet they HAVE to get rid of his contract. They can buy him out but that will mean having to clear another contract just to clear enough space to fill the roster. We need to make our offer the best of a bunch of bad options. If you are worried about Johnson - remember he is only 30, has three years left at $5m, scores at a 1.8 pts/60 rate, FO% of 55%, plays PP and PK very well and plays a physical game for a smaller player (5'8" but 185 lb, so quite solid). Those that have suggested we need to sign say Granlund as our 3C - you are going to get a 29 year old guy, 5'10" but also 185 lb, less physical, scoring 1.6 pts/60, FO% of 52% and you will have to offer him close to $4.5m x 4 years. I think Johnson is a comparable option to Granlund, but you also get the upside of the other assets from TBL. To round out the roster I would sign UFAs Oleksiak ($3.5m), Goodrow ($2.5m), Paquette ($1.2m). We could move Eriksson after his signing bonus is paid for a 2nd round pick (his destination team can buy him out for the cost of just $1m/year over 2 years) and buy out Virtanen. Miller Pettersson Boeser Pearson Horvat Hoglander Goodrow Johnson Podkolzin Roussel Paquette Motte (Graovac) Oleksiak Schmidt Hughes Foote Rathbone Myers (Juolevi) Demko (Holtby) Plus two 1st round picks next year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighOnHockey Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, knucklehead91 said: But You aren't thinking about it from the rest of the league's POV. Tampa is more than likely going to win their 2nd cup. They have a cap crisis and contract renewal problems in the next couple years. No one is going to step in and over pay for anything. What favours have they done for anyone else in the league the last 6-7 years? Moving Cernak now for 0 cap in return and exposing a 5mil player to the ED gets them nearly 3mil under the cap. Tampa's POV is they have to figure out how to get cap creative and keep all the great young players while parting with the junk that they dont see as part of the future. Problem is...... They cant afford to keep everyone and they are going to lose a lot of those "Goodrows" and "Colemans" to free agency. No one will take a bad contract for them to continue winning. Other teams want their turn to win a cup or 2 in a row. Cernak has 2 years at 2.95 not one. Brayden Point is up for new ink next season, he'll be getting a 2 mil raise easily for his play. Now you have one guy getting a raise next season while your 3 RFAs are locked up, next season after that is the overlap of Points extension with Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachevs new contracts. Now how do you juggle that RFA situation AGAIN in the flat cap? They just played musical chairs in the off-season to get those 3 locked up on short term deals to go for a cup run. Teams are going to look at them and say "nope, not again Tampa, we aren't doing that for you again Brisebois, you've won 2 cups you can get lost" Tampa will probably have to part with a very good player and it will come down to the highest bidder which will be the lowest underseller. Why overpay for a guy they need to move in a short time because their cap will be FUBAR. They paid a bunch for Coleman and Goodrow and now they are UFAs and TBL is 5mil over the cap and cant even re-sign them. Doesn't really matter because they won a cup, they aren't going to sacrifice anything to try and keep the UFA's they are letting them walk. The league's POV is F U Tampa you won back to back cups and fooled around with the LTIR and Kucherov was 100% ready to play the moment he stepped on the ice, he clearly hasn't missed a step or had that hard of a time adjusting. What team is going to benefit from taking TBL's scraps. "Here's a 29-32 year old 5mil+ guy locked up for the next few years, you can take him off our hands for nearly free." How is Tampa going to keep these contracts that are worth more than their weight in gold? Like they have to make moves and no one is going to want to take something they dont want or dont see in their own teams future plans. Why take Johnson, Palat, Gourde etc are all 29 turning 30-32 when you want Cernak or Cirelli, Kucherov or Hedman. Teams arent going to be entirely interested in the other 3. They want someone that is going to make an impact AND have a few more good years of hockey left in the tank, not the 5mil 30 year old guy whos ski's are straightening out as their career begins the downward trend Palat has 1 year left at 5.3mil - turned 30 this year Johnson 3 more at 5mil - turning 31 this month Gourde 4 years at 5.166mil - turns 30 this year Look at Tampa's cap as it stands right now and their cap situations in the next few years TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING PROJECTED CAP HIT : $86,566,666 PROJECTED LTIR USED : $5,066,666 PROJECTED CAP SPACE : $0 ($0 ) CURRENT CAP SPACE : $0 TODAYS CAP HIT : $86,566,666 ROSTER SIZE: 19 CONTRACTS: 33/50 RESERVE LIST: 49/90 FORWARDS (12 - $52,591,666) TERMS POS STATUS ACQUIRED AGE CAP% 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Kucherov, Nikita NMC RW NHL Draft 28 11.7 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 Stamkos, Steven "C" NMC C, RW NHL Draft 31 10.4 $8,500,000 $8,500,000 $8,500,000 Point, Brayden C, RW NHL Draft 25 8.3 $6,750,000 RFA Palat, Ondrej M-NTC RW, LW NHL Draft 30 6.5 $5,300,000 UFA Gourde, Yanni NTC C, LW, RW NHL Signed 29 6.3 $5,166,666 $5,166,666 $5,166,666 $5,166,666 UFA Johnson, Tyler M-NTC RW, C NHL Signed 30 6.1 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 UFA Cirelli, Anthony C NHL Draft 23 5.9 $4,800,000 $4,800,000 RFA Killorn, Alex M-NTC LW NHL Draft 31 5.5 $4,450,000 $4,450,000 UFA Maroon, Patrick M-NTC LW, RW NHL Signed 33 1.1 $900,000 UFA Walcott, Daniel LW, LD NHL Trade 27 0.9 $750,000 $750,000 UFA Stephens, Mitchell C NHL Draft 24 0.9 $737,500 RFA Joseph, Mathieu C, LW, RW NHL Draft 24 0.9 $737,500 RFA Smith, Gemel C NHL Signed 27 UFA Goodrow, Barclay LW NHL Trade 28 UFA Coleman, Blake LW, RW NHL Trade 29 UFA Raddysh, Taylor RW NHL Draft 23 RFA Katchouk, Boris LW NHL Draft 23 RFA Colton, Ross C NHL Draft 24 RFA Barré-Boulet, Alex C NHL Signed 24 RFA TOTAL 27.0 64.5 $52,591,666 $38,166,666 $28,166,666 $14,666,666 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 DEFENSE (5 - $23,675,000) TERMS POS STATUS ACQUIRED AGE CAP% 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Hedman, Victor "A" NMC LD NHL Draft 30 9.7 $7,875,000 $7,875,000 $7,875,000 $7,875,000 UFA McDonagh, Ryan "A" NTC LD NHL Trade 32 8.3 $6,750,000 $6,750,000 $6,750,000 $6,750,000 $6,750,000 UFA Sergachev, Mikhail LD/RD NHL Trade 23 5.9 $4,800,000 $4,800,000 RFA Cernak, Erik RD NHL Trade 24 3.6 $2,950,000 $2,950,000 RFA Rutta, Jan RD NHL Signed 30 1.6 $1,300,000 UFA Claesson, Fredrik LD NHL Trade 28 UFA Savard, David RD NHL Trade 30 UFA Schenn, Luke RD NHL Signed 31 UFA Thomas, Ben RD NHL Draft 25 UFA G6 Foote, Cal RD NHL Draft 22 RFA Borgman, Andreas LD NHL Signed 26 UFA G6 TOTAL 27.4 29.0 $23,675,000 $22,375,000 $14,625,000 $14,625,000 $6,750,000 GOALIES (2 - $10,300,000) TERMS POS STATUS ACQUIRED AGE CAP% 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Vasilevskiy, Andrei NMC G NHL Draft 26 11.7 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 Martin, Spencer G NHL Signed 26 1.0 $800,000 UFA Gibson, Christopher G NHL Signed 28 UFA McElhinney, Curtis G NHL Signed 38 UFA TOTAL 29.5 12.6 $10,300,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 They are 5 mil over the cap, have 19 players signed and need to shed cap like crazy to prepare for the upcoming RFA deals in a flat cap world. They are not in a position of power, they used up that power to win a cup and are on the way to their 2nd in back to back years. Look at Pittsburgh after their 2 cup wins in back to back years. They gave up a lot to get Phil Kessel and then gave him away shortly after for next to nothing. Galchenyuk sucked and got moved quickly after that exchange. TRADE DETAILS Jun 29, 2019 Arizona Coyotes Acquire: Phil Kessel · $6,800,000 Dane Birks · $0 (AHL/JR) 2021 4th round pick (PIT - #122) Sum: $6,800,000 Change: +$1,900,000 Pittsburgh Penguins Acquire: Alex Galchenyuk · $4,900,000 Pierre-Olivier Joseph · $0 (AHL/JR) Sum: $4,900,000 Change: -$1,900,000 Jul 1, 2015 Pittsburgh Penguins Acquire: Phil Kessel ($1,200,000 retained - 15%) · $6,800,000 Tim Erixon · $600,000 Tyler Biggs · $0 (AHL/JR) 2016 conditional 2nd round pick* (PIT - #61 - Kasper Björkqvist) *Conditions: If Pittsburgh misses the 2016 playoffs, then Pittsburgh shall receive Toronto's 2017 2nd round pick. If Pittsburgh misses both the 2016 & 2017 playoffs, then Pittsburgh does not receive any pick from Toronto Result: Pittsburgh clinched 2016 playoff birth. Pittsburgh will receive Toronto's 2nd round pick (PIT) from Toronto. Sum: $7,400,000 Change: +$3,716,666 Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire: Scott Harrington · $589,167 Nick Spaling · $2,200,000 Kasperi Kapanen · $894,167 2016 conditional 1st round pick* (PIT - #30 - Sam Steel) 2016 3rd round pick (NJD - #72 - James Greenway) *Conditions: If Pittsburgh misses the 2016 playoffs, then Toronto will receive Pittsburgh's 2017 1st round pick. If Pittsburgh misses both the 2016 & 2017 playoffs, then the 2017 1st round pick to Toronto becomes a 2017 2nd round pick Result: Pittsburgh clinched 2016 playoff birth. Toronto will receive Pittsburgh's 2016 1st round pick Sum: $3,683,334 Change: -$3,716,666 Why trade away Kessel after a 92 and 82 point season, over 300 points in a 4 year span for Alex Galchenyuk and some other dud. 2015-16 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 82 26 33 59 18 9 24 10 12 22 4 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 82 23 47 70 20 3 25 8 15 23 2 2017-18 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 82 34 58 92 36 -4 12 1 8 9 2 2018-19 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 82 27 55 82 28 -19 4 1 1 2 2 2019-20 Arizona Coyotes NHL 70 14 24 38 22 -21 9 1 3 4 4 2020-21 Arizona Coyotes NHL 56 20 23 43 12 -17 Because they were not in a position of power, Kessel was rumoured to have attitude issues and no one was willing do them a solid favour after winning 2 cups, because every other team out there wants to win a cup. Thats a pretty lopsided trade. Where theres smoke, there's fire and no one is going to pay full price for players with attitude issues, players that want out of a city or a team that is running into cap/contract issues. Why would anyone want to take on 5mil in cap in the flat cap, especially if there is term to go with the flat cap for the next few years. Seth Jones wants out and its known, so I'd like to see another team pitch a couple 1st round picks one being a top 10 pick to acquire him along with a high end prospect to go with it. If Vancouver was to acquire him and be a competitive team next season, I don't see why Jones wouldn't want to re-sign with the core that we have coming up. We will begin to attract players, guys will be willing to waive their NMC's to come to an up and coming team. Anyways, it was all a fun alcohol inspired proposal. I dont think the value is too far off on some of the proposals. Looking back at the Reinhart proposal, it is a pretty lopsided deal, but if Juolevi can live up to his potential and Virtanen, with a fresh start in a new town with no distractions, can begin to get back on track, it could work out to be a really good deal for Buffalo. Of course this is all a bunch of what ifs... My dude. Come on. I appreciate that you've clearly put some thought and effort into this, but your arguments are razor thin at every turn. It is a very clear instance of a person making some claims and then refusing to let go and trying to grasp for any argument to explain their position. The worst of it is this idea that teams are going to spite Tampa Bay out of envy or revenge or some such nonsense. This is great in theory, but it doesn't work in real life. If every other country banded together to put sanctions against China, that would be great, but if only certain countries do it, China will just trade with the countries that don't and those countries will reap the rewards. Any NHL teams that refuse to play ball with an organization as asset-rich and cap-crucnhed as Tampa is just missing out. Almost as bad, and along the same lines, is this idea that teams won't want Palat, Killorn, Johnson or Gourde because Tampa has other players and those aren't the best options. Have you see Django Unchained? "We don't want the players you wanna trade, we want the players you don't wanna trade." Well if you've seen the movie you'd know that it was only Doctor Schultz' "ridiculous offer" that made Candy even consider selling the slave he don't wanna sell. OK, yes, this situation is different because Tampa needs to sell something. But do you really think no NHL team has any interest in Palat, Killorn, Johnson or Gourde whatsoever? Your explanation only makes sense when there are only two parties to the negotiation, but if you're the buyer, and you say "sorry Tampa, we only want Cernak, not Palat, Killorn, Johnson or Gourde." Whoops! Sorry, you just missed out. 30 other teams out there to negotiate with. And the fact that I was mistaken about the length of Cernak's contract, well, two years just makes Cernak even more valuable to them. This organization is still in position to win multiple Cups if they can play everything just right. If I'm Tampa and Vancouver offers the 9th overall pick for Cernak, I still wouldn't do it. Edited July 2, 2021 by HighOnHockey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knucklehead91 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 hour ago, BigTramFan said: I don't have a problem with what TBL did in the regular season. Their active roster of players was under $81.5m cap hit, like every other team. What p%$$ed me off was when they brought back Kucherov from LTIR magically in time for game 1 of the playoffs when cap doesn't matter. This is when they really screwed everyone. Suddenly they had a roster with almost $100m cap hit. It was all legit but it was also total BS. Having said that I would be quite happy to screw them while "helping them" to become cap compliant for next season. If Seattle selects a player such as Palat (which is predicted to be the most likely selection), then TBL still have to clear another one of their ~$5m contracts. I would offer them this deal: To VAN: Johnson + Foote + 2022 1st round pick To TBL: Highmore + 2023 3rd round pick They can take it or leave it. Remember Johnson has to submit a 20-team trade list. You can bet there are no teams with a ton of cap space like NJD, BUF, CBJ on that list. he wants to go somewhere good. This is going to drastically reduce the trade options for TBL and yet they HAVE to get rid of his contract. They can buy him out but that will mean having to clear another contract just to clear enough space to fill the roster. We need to make our offer the best of a bunch of bad options. If you are worried about Johnson - remember he is only 30, has three years left at $5m, scores at a 1.8 pts/60 rate, FO% of 55%, plays PP and PK very well and plays a physical game for a smaller player (5'8" but 185 lb, so quite solid). Those that have suggested we need to sign say Granlund as our 3C - you are going to get a 29 year old guy, 5'10" but also 185 lb, less physical, scoring 1.6 pts/60, FO% of 52% and you will have to offer him close to $4.5m x 4 years. I think Johnson is a comparable option to Granlund, but you also get the upside of the other assets from TBL. To round out the roster I would sign UFAs Oleksiak ($3.5m), Goodrow ($2.5m), Paquette ($1.2m). We could move Eriksson after his signing bonus is paid for a 2nd round pick (his destination team can buy him out for the cost of just $1m/year over 2 years) and buy out Virtanen. Miller Pettersson Boeser Pearson Horvat Hoglander Goodrow Johnson Podkolzin Roussel Paquette Motte (Graovac) Oleksiak Schmidt Hughes Foote Rathbone Myers (Juolevi) Demko (Holtby) Plus two 1st round picks next year Well thats exactly it, thats a huge slap in the face to the league and how the cap can be circumvented in a technically legit way, but at the same time illegitimate way. Kucherov was ready to play before the playoffs. They just made sure the paper work and reports and all that crap kept him out until the playoffs because they would have been absolutely screwed if the NHL made Kucherov come back early if they found out he coulda been good to go 5-6 weeks ago. Im sure everyone in the league is giving kudos to Brisebois for how he pulled everything off. But they’re also pi$$ed off that Kucherov came back without missing a beat and they are now enroute to go back to back. My issue with Johnson is, how does he look outside of Tampa, on a middle of the league team? Is he as bright of a shining star, or does he fizzle out when he is higher up in the lineup. Personally I wouldnt want a 3 year 5 mil anchor, we are just about to rid ourselves of LE, I’d hate to add another. If I was going to take a 5 mil player off their hands to help them out, I’d be going for the one with the least term. But ya I like your take on going after Foote and getting a 1st. Thats a pretty slick pick up. And probably a little more logical. The more I think about the Cernak deal I proposed the worse it looks. Idk wtf I was thinking and clearly I shoulda put the beers away before hammering away a bunch of ridiculous ideas. I think you’re proposal is a good one, but I’d maybe go for one of the other 5 million dollar men with shorter term so If its not going too well, it can possibly be moved or it wont take long to wait it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 49 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said: Well thats exactly it, thats a huge slap in the face to the league and how the cap can be circumvented in a technically legit way, but at the same time illegitimate way. Kucherov was ready to play before the playoffs. They just made sure the paper work and reports and all that crap kept him out until the playoffs because they would have been absolutely screwed if the NHL made Kucherov come back early if they found out he coulda been good to go 5-6 weeks ago. Im sure everyone in the league is giving kudos to Brisebois for how he pulled everything off. But they’re also pi$$ed off that Kucherov came back without missing a beat and they are now enroute to go back to back. My issue with Johnson is, how does he look outside of Tampa, on a middle of the league team? Is he as bright of a shining star, or does he fizzle out when he is higher up in the lineup. Personally I wouldnt want a 3 year 5 mil anchor, we are just about to rid ourselves of LE, I’d hate to add another. If I was going to take a 5 mil player off their hands to help them out, I’d be going for the one with the least term. But ya I like your take on going after Foote and getting a 1st. Thats a pretty slick pick up. And probably a little more logical. The more I think about the Cernak deal I proposed the worse it looks. Idk wtf I was thinking and clearly I shoulda put the beers away before hammering away a bunch of ridiculous ideas. I think you’re proposal is a good one, but I’d maybe go for one of the other 5 million dollar men with shorter term so If its not going too well, it can possibly be moved or it wont take long to wait it out. My guess is that TBL will sweeten the deal most for Seattle to take Johnson, but they will also sweeten the deal (less) to take either McDonagh, Killlorn or Palat. I'm gonna guess Seattle will take one of the shorter contracts in Palat or Killorn, but it will depend a lot on what is being offered and who else Seattle are drafting. If Seattle takes Johnson, then I think Killorn and Palat will be on the table for other teams (both have modified NTCs) after the expansion draft. But I don't see that you would get Foote + 1st for taking either of those two guys, because they are better players than Johnson and their contracts are shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knucklehead91 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, HighOnHockey said: My dude. Come on. I appreciate that you've clearly put some thought and effort into this, but your arguments are razor thin at every turn. It is a very clear instance of a person making some claims and then refusing to let go and trying to grasp for any argument to explain their position. The worst of it is this idea that teams are going to spite Tampa Bay out of envy or revenge or some such nonsense. This is great in theory, but it doesn't work in real life. If every other country banded together to put sanctions against China, that would be great, but if only certain countries do it, China will just trade with the countries that don't and those countries will reap the rewards. Any NHL teams that refuse to play ball with an organization as asset-rich and cap-crucnhed as Tampa is just missing out. Almost as bad, and along the same lines, is this idea that teams won't want Palat, Killorn, Johnson or Gourde because Tampa has other players and those aren't the best options. Have you see Django Unchained? "We don't want the players you wanna trade, we want the players you don't wanna trade." Well if you've seen the movie you'd know that it was only Doctor Schultz' "ridiculous offer" that made Candy even consider selling the slave he don't wanna sell. OK, yes, this situation is different because Tampa needs to sell something. But do you really think no NHL team has any interest in Palat, Killorn, Johnson or Gourde whatsoever? Your explanation only makes sense when there are only two parties to the negotiation, but if you're the buyer, and you say "sorry Tampa, we only want Cernak, not Palat, Killorn, Johnson or Gourde." Whoops! Sorry, you just missed out. 30 other teams out there to negotiate with. And the fact that I was mistaken about the length of Cernak's contract, well, two years just makes Cernak even more valuable to them. This organization is still in position to win multiple Cups if they can play everything just right. If I'm Tampa and Vancouver offers the 9th overall pick for Cernak, I still wouldn't do it. Okay the more I’ve thought about the Cernak offer, I’ll admit the worse it looks and Idk wtf was goin through my beer buzzed brain. Definitely not a good deal for Tampa and despite the fact I dont believe teams are going to do them any favours I can agree that I dont see him going for that cheap. Tampa at some point this year or next year are going to have to decide on which RFA to move. Point needs a new deal in 2021, Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli need new deals in 2022 Tampa has 59,041,666 invested in Kucherov, Stamkos, Gourde, Johnson, Hedman, McDonagh, Vasilevskiy and Point all under contract for atleast the next 3 years. That doesnt include Points raise next season or Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak as of right now. They are nearly at 60mil without adding in their 3 big RFAs and in 2, seasons when they have all those big contracts locked up and Point gets his payday, they will have 3 more big paydays to hand out in a flat cap world with 60-63mil tied up in 8 guys. Something tells me Cernak, Sergachev and Cirelli’s will bring TBL close to 80 mil after those guys get their final RFA deals. 6-7.5mil per player. Why would any GM want to take on a less valuable player and help the rich get richer? Yes Brisebois I’ll take a 31 year old Johnson off your hands for 5 mil for the next 3 years. We’ll gladly take a player heading into the decline and was placed on waivers several times in hopes someone would take him for free, we’ll pay you instead!! Cap and contract issues are like blood in the water. A shark can smell blood from a million miles away. When teams sense that Tampa is in a crunch, they’ll come runnin with a smile, not their hands out for spare change. You always strive to get a higher value in a trade than what you are giving away. Especially when a team is in a predicament. They are not in a position of power to hold all the cards in their hand. They’ll settle on the trade that gives them closest to fair value. Its not a stupid idea to believe that teams wont be willing to take any issues away from Tampa for cheap. They’ve won a cup and probably going to win a 2nd. Helping them is going to give them a chance to go for a 3rd in a row while most teams havent won a cup in the last 20 years. Every Team wants a cup, they wont keep holding their hats out for the spare change of a winning organization that plans to continue winning without expecting to lose a big piece once in awhile in order to keep the dream alive. Tampa cant have their cake and eat it too, its foolish of you to think that teams are going to run to their aid after winning year in and year out.. Oh Tampa tell us what you need us to do so you can win again! What can we do to help you??? Guess what just like there are plenty of teams that you say will help tampa, there are plenty of teams that will be willing to help teams like Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Vegas, teams that are close to winning and willing and able to pay a much better price than Tampa to help those teams. Tampa is not in a position of power, the teams around them are and the teams willing to do a deal with them set the price, Tampa either complies or finds them with a sh*ttier deal down the road. “Shucks we shoulda taken that first offer, now we had to move a good player out for a bag of pucks, because they moved on and took a deal from our divisional rivals.” edit: Teams arent “missing” out on sh*t if such an asset rich team like Tampa isnt willing to part with a player that is going to be part of their future. If anything, Tampa is going to be the one missing out on getting the best deal possible if they want to hold out on the good. Carolina and Florida will be very motivated to be better than Tampa after losing to them. You could hear it in Dougie Hamiltons speech, people are pi$$ed about the way Tampa got around the cap and had Kucherov for game 1 and is leading the playoffs in scoring. Those teams are bitter and will pay any team who wants to help them add to their roster a ransom. Whos got the better deal to give?? Tampa whos cap crunched or Carolina/Colorado/Florida who have their draft picks, other prospects and decent players and are willing to pay more than they have to in order to win the cup. Tampa’s done it twice, they arent going to pay a ton to try and do it again and they cant afford to pay their way with picks and prospects. They need cap space and teams know it, they arent going to take the cap they dont want, they are going to pressure them to move something of actual value out. Edited July 2, 2021 by knucklehead91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said: Okay the more I’ve thought about the Cernak offer, I’ll admit the worse it looks and Idk wtf was goin through my beer buzzed brain. Definitely not a good deal for Tampa and despite the fact I dont believe teams are going to do them any favours I can agree that I dont see him going for that cheap. Tampa at some point this year or next year are going to have to decide on which RFA to move. Point needs a new deal in 2021, Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli need new deals in 2022 Tampa has 59,041,666 invested in Kucherov, Stamkos, Gourde, Johnson, Hedman, McDonagh, Vasilevskiy and Point all under contract for atleast the next 3 years. That doesnt include Points raise next season or Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak as of right now. They are nearly at 60mil without adding in their 3 big RFAs and in 2, seasons when they have all those big contracts locked up and Point gets his payday, they will have 3 more big paydays to hand out in a flat cap world with 60-63mil tied up in 8 guys. Something tells me Cernak, Sergachev and Cirelli’s will bring TBL close to 80 mil after those guys get their final RFA deals. 6-7.5mil per player. Why would any GM want to take on a less valuable player and help the rich get richer? Yes Brisebois I’ll take a 31 year old Johnson off your hands for 5 mil for the next 3 years. We’ll gladly take a player heading into the decline and was placed on waivers several times in hopes someone would take him for free, we’ll pay you instead!! Cap and contract issues are like blood in the water. A shark can smell blood from a million miles away. When teams sense that Tampa is in a crunch, they’ll come runnin with a smile, not their hands out for spare change. You always strive to get a higher value in a trade than what you are giving away. Especially when a team is in a predicament. They are not in a position of power to hold all the cards in their hand. They’ll settle on the trade that gives them closest to fair value. Its not a stupid idea to believe that teams wont be willing to take any issues away from Tampa for cheap. They’ve won a cup and probably going to win a 2nd. Helping them is going to give them a chance to go for a 3rd in a row while most teams havent won a cup in the last 20 years. Every Team wants a cup, they wont keep holding their hats out for the spare change of a winning organization that plans to continue winning without expecting to lose a big piece once in awhile in order to keep the dream alive. Tampa cant have their cake and eat it too, its foolish of you to think that teams are going to run to their aid after winning year in and year out.. Oh Tampa tell us what you need us to do so you can win again! What can we do to help you??? Guess what just like there are plenty of teams that you say will help tampa, there are plenty of teams that will be willing to help teams like Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Vegas, teams that are close to winning and willing and able to pay a much better price than Tampa to help those teams. Tampa is not in a position of power, the teams around them are and the teams willing to do a deal with them set the price, Tampa either complies or finds them with a sh*ttier deal down the road. “Shucks we shoulda taken that first offer, now we had to move a good player out for a bag of pucks, because they moved on and took a deal from our divisional rivals.” There are so many moves TBL could make over the next 1-2 years, it will be a challenge but not be that hard to stay compliant. They will certainly be moving out lots of useful assets. You are right that they will have to make some tough decisions in 2023 when Cirelli, Serg and Cernak need new deals. For example, if they still have Hedman and McDonagh at LD, then they could trade Serg for a big haul and get a cheap 3LD to fill his spot, or they could convince McDonagh to waive his NTC, too many options to list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighOnHockey Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 33 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said: Okay the more I’ve thought about the Cernak offer, I’ll admit the worse it looks and Idk wtf was goin through my beer buzzed brain. Definitely not a good deal for Tampa and despite the fact I dont believe teams are going to do them any favours I can agree that I dont see him going for that cheap. Tampa at some point this year or next year are going to have to decide on which RFA to move. Point needs a new deal in 2021, Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli need new deals in 2022 Tampa has 59,041,666 invested in Kucherov, Stamkos, Gourde, Johnson, Hedman, McDonagh, Vasilevskiy and Point all under contract for atleast the next 3 years. That doesnt include Points raise next season or Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak as of right now. They are nearly at 60mil without adding in their 3 big RFAs and in 2, seasons when they have all those big contracts locked up and Point gets his payday, they will have 3 more big paydays to hand out in a flat cap world with 60-63mil tied up in 8 guys. Something tells me Cernak, Sergachev and Cirelli’s will bring TBL close to 80 mil after those guys get their final RFA deals. 6-7.5mil per player. Why would any GM want to take on a less valuable player and help the rich get richer? Yes Brisebois I’ll take a 31 year old Johnson off your hands for 5 mil for the next 3 years. We’ll gladly take a player heading into the decline and was placed on waivers several times in hopes someone would take him for free, we’ll pay you instead!! Cap and contract issues are like blood in the water. A shark can smell blood from a million miles away. When teams sense that Tampa is in a crunch, they’ll come runnin with a smile, not their hands out for spare change. You always strive to get a higher value in a trade than what you are giving away. Especially when a team is in a predicament. They are not in a position of power to hold all the cards in their hand. They’ll settle on the trade that gives them closest to fair value. Its not a stupid idea to believe that teams wont be willing to take any issues away from Tampa for cheap. They’ve won a cup and probably going to win a 2nd. Helping them is going to give them a chance to go for a 3rd in a row while most teams havent won a cup in the last 20 years. Every Team wants a cup, they wont keep holding their hats out for the spare change of a winning organization that plans to continue winning without expecting to lose a big piece once in awhile in order to keep the dream alive. Tampa cant have their cake and eat it too, its foolish of you to think that teams are going to run to their aid after winning year in and year out.. Oh Tampa tell us what you need us to do so you can win again! What can we do to help you??? Guess what just like there are plenty of teams that you say will help tampa, there are plenty of teams that will be willing to help teams like Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Vegas, teams that are close to winning and willing and able to pay a much better price than Tampa to help those teams. Tampa is not in a position of power, the teams around them are and the teams willing to do a deal with them set the price, Tampa either complies or finds them with a sh*ttier deal down the road. “Shucks we shoulda taken that first offer, now we had to move a good player out for a bag of pucks, because they moved on and took a deal from our divisional rivals.” edit: Teams arent “missing” out on sh*t if such an asset rich team like Tampa isnt willing to part with a player that is going to be part of their future. If anything, Tampa is going to be the one missing out on getting the best deal possible if they want to hold out on the good. Carolina and Florida will be very motivated to be better than Tampa after losing to them. You could hear it in Dougie Hamiltons speech, people are pi$$ed about the way Tampa got around the cap and had Kucherov for game 1 and is leading the playoffs in scoring. Those teams are bitter and will pay any team who wants to help them add to their roster a ransom. Whos got the better deal to give?? Tampa whos cap crunched or Carolina/Colorado/Florida who have their draft picks, other prospects and decent players and are willing to pay more than they have to in order to win the cup. Tampa’s done it twice, they arent going to pay a ton to try and do it again and they cant afford to pay their way with picks and prospects. They need cap space and teams know it, they arent going to take the cap they dont want, they are going to pressure them to move something of actual value out. Oh boy. I barely know where to begin. I don't know where on earth you get this idea that teams are helping Tampa out. Quite the opposite, Tampa paid a king's ransom for Goodrow and Colman. You think any other team would give up a return like that for those players? Just as it works for acquiring players, it works the other way for moving out players: teams understand the situation Tampa is in. They are rich in assets but poor in cap. So you can "help" them with their cap situation in exchange for taking back excess asset value. One argument you make is particularly abysmal: teams won't take anything away from Tampa cheap, therefor Tampa has to trade one of their more valuable assets. Such a weak inference. Why couldn't they just trade away some of those less valuable players at beneath market value? This is exactly the reason Tampa is such a desirable trading partner. They have to give away good players for low value in return. Again, look at Colman and Goodrow and we're just talking about the other direction. When a team has a surplus of valuable assets, and a deficit of available cap, salary becomes the most valuable commodity to them. But probably the craziest thing you said of all is that Tampa already won (or is about to have won) two Cups, therefor they aren't going to pay a ton to try to do it again. Are you completely insane? I'm not even going to justify this with a response. I can't believe I would have to argue the importance of winning Stanley Cups to NHL teams... They're very probably not going to trade away any of their young core pieces Cirelli, Sergachev, Point, Cernak, etc. right now. Although if someone blew them away with an offer I guess you never know. Far, far more likely is they'll trade a couple of Palat, Johnson, Killorn, Gourde. If they were really desperate to move Johnson's contract, they could always package him with picks or prospects. But you seem to be forgetting they also have Gourde, Killorn, Palat. All still pretty darn valuable players with not unreasonable contracts (go look at comparables before you reply). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knucklehead91 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said: Oh boy. I barely know where to begin. I don't know where on earth you get this idea that teams are helping Tampa out. Quite the opposite, Tampa paid a king's ransom for Goodrow and Colman. You think any other team would give up a return like that for those players? Just as it works for acquiring players, it works the other way for moving out players: teams understand the situation Tampa is in. They are rich in assets but poor in cap. So you can "help" them with their cap situation in exchange for taking back excess asset value. One argument you make is particularly abysmal: teams won't take anything away from Tampa cheap, therefor Tampa has to trade one of their more valuable assets. Such a weak inference. Why couldn't they just trade away some of those less valuable players at beneath market value? This is exactly the reason Tampa is such a desirable trading partner. They have to give away good players for low value in return. Again, look at Colman and Goodrow and we're just talking about the other direction. When a team has a surplus of valuable assets, and a deficit of available cap, salary becomes the most valuable commodity to them. But probably the craziest thing you said of all is that Tampa already won (or is about to have won) two Cups, therefor they aren't going to pay a ton to try to do it again. Are you completely insane? I'm not even going to justify this with a response. I can't believe I would have to argue the importance of winning Stanley Cups to NHL teams... They're very probably not going to trade away any of their young core pieces Cirelli, Sergachev, Point, Cernak, etc. right now. Although if someone blew them away with an offer I guess you never know. Far, far more likely is they'll trade a couple of Palat, Johnson, Killorn, Gourde. If they were really desperate to move Johnson's contract, they could always package him with picks or prospects. But you seem to be forgetting they also have Gourde, Killorn, Palat. All still pretty darn valuable players with not unreasonable contracts (go look at comparables before you reply). Bro…. Tampa has divisional rivals that will make better deals. Carolina and Florida dont have their backs up against the cap. Tampa is BEYOND the cap. They are in a weaker position. They ACTUALLY need help, they ACTUALLY NEED to make a deal. They actually HAVE to make a deal, not just one but multiple. Teams will see that as a weakness and Tampa will have their rubber arm twisted. Carolina is under the cap. Carolina doesnt HAVE to do anything, its harder to take advantage of them in a trade. Tampa’s tits are easy to milk. They actually HAVE to do something. Why pay a premium to a team that doesnt have much choice in the matter, they need to be cap compliant. Carolina, Vegas, Colorado, Florida all have a better cap situation and are teams that want to win and can afford to pay the price. And move as valuable of players for the same price and add in picks or prospects to make sure teams take their deals over Tampa’s Tampa has no 1st or 2nd round pick this year, they have no 4th as well. Next draft they dont have a 2nd. Tampa cant afford to pay a ton to keep the dream alive WITHOUT paying the price of at least 1 of their valuable RFAs thats how they are going to make deals. Not everyone is going to take their 30 year old 5 mil players off their hands. Tampa needs to move about 15 mil in order to ice a bloody team next season. They need over 5 mil to be cap compliant and then they need to somehow sign Cal Foote this year who is an RFA, they have countless UFAs that are walking they have to somehow find a way to add some depth players to replace Coleman and Goodrow, Savard etc…… WITHOUT ANY CAP SPACE. Zero, nil, zilch. They have no space!! They paid a ransom for Goodrow and Coleman and they cant even afford to resign them lol!!! But it doesnt really matter to Tampa, because they are more than likely going to win a cup, so who cares if they lose them. Next season however is up ahead and now they need a new plan to get under the cap, dont have many draft picks this year and are well above the cap with more RFAs to deal with. you dont understand trade leverage which is pretty sad. You’d pay full value or higher to a team that has no choice. once again… WHY would any team want to take on a 5 mil cap hit on an aging player in a flat cap. Especially when a team like Tampa is in a tough position. If they are going to make a deal to move Palat or Killorn or Johnson, they get a terrible return AND they are going to have to part ways with something of actual value to a team, either draft picks and or prospects. Tampa isnt moving out 5mil deals for peanuts and not adding anything in if they want help with their cap situation.. You dont pay more than you have to. Nobody has to pay Tampa anything extra. Tampa has to make multiple deals with a bunch of sweetners to get themselves under the cap and settled for the next few seasons if they want to keep allllll the good young core players. They WILL have to make sacrifices, its just the way the salary cap works. JUST like you said about teams that will help Tampa, whos going to have the better offer, Tampa, Carolina, Florida, NYI, Boston, Washington has rumours of Kuznetsov up for grabs. Kuznetsov>Palat, Killorn, Gourde, Johnson. Calgary has rumours of Tkachuk wanting out, Eichel is unhappy, Tarasenko is rumoured, The big 3 in Toronto are in question, another failed year, another no-show from Marner and Matthews, who knows they might try to shake things up. Theres Taylor hall thats available as a UFA… and you think teams will be listening to what 30 year old declining player Tampa has to offer?? Lol they’ll check with Tampa later, when the dust settles with the bigger fish out there. There are much better deals out there, Tampa will have to start paying the price to move cap out, if they wanna move there 5million dollar men, they are going to have to add and they arent going to get much in return and they actually cant afford to get anything in return, the fact that teams know they cant afford it, they will not be giving high picks or prospects away and they will demand one of the few good picks they have left in the next 2 years or they will demand a prospect. like how do you not see the position Tampa is in???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knucklehead91 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 hour ago, HighOnHockey said: Oh boy. I barely know where to begin. I don't know where on earth you get this idea that teams are helping Tampa out. Quite the opposite, Tampa paid a king's ransom for Goodrow and Colman. You think any other team would give up a return like that for those players? Just as it works for acquiring players, it works the other way for moving out players: teams understand the situation Tampa is in. They are rich in assets but poor in cap. So you can "help" them with their cap situation in exchange for taking back excess asset value. One argument you make is particularly abysmal: teams won't take anything away from Tampa cheap, therefor Tampa has to trade one of their more valuable assets. Such a weak inference. Why couldn't they just trade away some of those less valuable players at beneath market value? This is exactly the reason Tampa is such a desirable trading partner. They have to give away good players for low value in return. Again, look at Colman and Goodrow and we're just talking about the other direction. When a team has a surplus of valuable assets, and a deficit of available cap, salary becomes the most valuable commodity to them. But probably the craziest thing you said of all is that Tampa already won (or is about to have won) two Cups, therefor they aren't going to pay a ton to try to do it again. Are you completely insane? I'm not even going to justify this with a response. I can't believe I would have to argue the importance of winning Stanley Cups to NHL teams... They're very probably not going to trade away any of their young core pieces Cirelli, Sergachev, Point, Cernak, etc. right now. Although if someone blew them away with an offer I guess you never know. Far, far more likely is they'll trade a couple of Palat, Johnson, Killorn, Gourde. If they were really desperate to move Johnson's contract, they could always package him with picks or prospects. But you seem to be forgetting they also have Gourde, Killorn, Palat. All still pretty darn valuable players with not unreasonable contracts (go look at comparables before you reply). Just go look at the Chicago Blackhawks. Panarin got moved, Saad got Moved. Dont tell me RFAs cant and will not get moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wallstreetamigo Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 I think everyone underestimates just how good Tampa's management team is. They always manage to come out clean as a whistle. A few years back they needed to shed cap. Benning gave them a 1st and a 3rd for Miller. It was a good trade for both teams but it was also Tampa getting max value when they absolutely had to shed cap. The guys they will move will be the older guys on higher contracts. Who will very likely be 2 time cup winning players. Look at just how much Benning himself (let alone all the other GM's around the league) value players who have won championships. They will sweeten the deal for Seattle to take Johnson or McDonough most likely. Both still good players that can help Seattle. Guys like Gourd, Palat, etc. will need to be traded. And they will be but not as cap dumps. Tampa will get fair value at wirst for them because lots of GM's overvalue guys based on having won cups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighOnHockey Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, knucklehead91 said: Bro…. Tampa has divisional rivals that will make better deals. Carolina and Florida dont have their backs up against the cap. Tampa is BEYOND the cap. They are in a weaker position. They ACTUALLY need help, they ACTUALLY NEED to make a deal. They actually HAVE to make a deal, not just one but multiple. Teams will see that as a weakness and Tampa will have their rubber arm twisted. Carolina is under the cap. Carolina doesnt HAVE to do anything, its harder to take advantage of them in a trade. Tampa’s tits are easy to milk. They actually HAVE to do something. Why pay a premium to a team that doesnt have much choice in the matter, they need to be cap compliant. Carolina, Vegas, Colorado, Florida all have a better cap situation and are teams that want to win and can afford to pay the price. And move as valuable of players for the same price and add in picks or prospects to make sure teams take their deals over Tampa’s Tampa has no 1st or 2nd round pick this year, they have no 4th as well. Next draft they dont have a 2nd. Tampa cant afford to pay a ton to keep the dream alive WITHOUT paying the price of at least 1 of their valuable RFAs thats how they are going to make deals. Not everyone is going to take their 30 year old 5 mil players off their hands. Tampa needs to move about 15 mil in order to ice a bloody team next season. They need over 5 mil to be cap compliant and then they need to somehow sign Cal Foote this year who is an RFA, they have countless UFAs that are walking they have to somehow find a way to add some depth players to replace Coleman and Goodrow, Savard etc…… WITHOUT ANY CAP SPACE. Zero, nil, zilch. They have no space!! They paid a ransom for Goodrow and Coleman and they cant even afford to resign them lol!!! But it doesnt really matter to Tampa, because they are more than likely going to win a cup, so who cares if they lose them. Next season however is up ahead and now they need a new plan to get under the cap, dont have many draft picks this year and are well above the cap with more RFAs to deal with. you dont understand trade leverage which is pretty sad. You’d pay full value or higher to a team that has no choice. once again… WHY would any team want to take on a 5 mil cap hit on an aging player in a flat cap. Especially when a team like Tampa is in a tough position. If they are going to make a deal to move Palat or Killorn or Johnson, they get a terrible return AND they are going to have to part ways with something of actual value to a team, either draft picks and or prospects. Tampa isnt moving out 5mil deals for peanuts and not adding anything in if they want help with their cap situation.. You dont pay more than you have to. Nobody has to pay Tampa anything extra. Tampa has to make multiple deals with a bunch of sweetners to get themselves under the cap and settled for the next few seasons if they want to keep allllll the good young core players. They WILL have to make sacrifices, its just the way the salary cap works. JUST like you said about teams that will help Tampa, whos going to have the better offer, Tampa, Carolina, Florida, NYI, Boston, Washington has rumours of Kuznetsov up for grabs. Kuznetsov>Palat, Killorn, Gourde, Johnson. Calgary has rumours of Tkachuk wanting out, Eichel is unhappy, Tarasenko is rumoured, The big 3 in Toronto are in question, another failed year, another no-show from Marner and Matthews, who knows they might try to shake things up. Theres Taylor hall thats available as a UFA… and you think teams will be listening to what 30 year old declining player Tampa has to offer?? Lol they’ll check with Tampa later, when the dust settles with the bigger fish out there. There are much better deals out there, Tampa will have to start paying the price to move cap out, if they wanna move there 5million dollar men, they are going to have to add and they arent going to get much in return and they actually cant afford to get anything in return, the fact that teams know they cant afford it, they will not be giving high picks or prospects away and they will demand one of the few good picks they have left in the next 2 years or they will demand a prospect. like how do you not see the position Tampa is in???? Alright, well I can see now that you're not even bothering to read my posts so there's no point replying. Lets just wait and see who's right and who's wrong. Edited July 2, 2021 by HighOnHockey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knucklehead91 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 7 hours ago, HighOnHockey said: Alright, well I can see now that you're not even bothering to read my posts so there's no point replying. Lets just wait and see who's right and who's wrong. Even if they move Palat AND Johnson out this year, they are still very tight against the cap this year. Their RFAs contracts are all so tightly jammed together. If you read some of my other posts I even said, if its not this year then its next year or when all 3 of them are due for a new contract I put the salary in there, 60mil without including Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli, those 3 together are going to cost easily 18-20mil that puts Tampa, in the flat cap, against the cap Kucherov 9.5 Vasilevskiy 9.5 Stamkos 8.5 Point 6.75 (next year its going up) Hedman 7.875 McDonagh 6.75 Gourde 5.166 These guys are all locked up for 3+ years Thats 54 mil, thats with them moving Palat and Johnson. Who knows maybe they can Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli need new contracts in 2 years…. Currently they soak up 11.6mil on their current contracts. The cap is expected to remain flat, they are going to have to move a big piece. They’ll definitely get a better return than what my drunk as$ posted, but I would expect one of the RFAs to be gone within the next couple years. Either that or they will move on from one of the big UFAs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bertuzzipunch Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said: Even if they move Palat AND Johnson out this year, they are still very tight against the cap this year. Their RFAs contracts are all so tightly jammed together. If you read some of my other posts I even said, if its not this year then its next year or when all 3 of them are due for a new contract I put the salary in there, 60mil without including Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli, those 3 together are going to cost easily 18-20mil that puts Tampa, in the flat cap, against the cap Kucherov 9.5 Vasilevskiy 9.5 Stamkos 8.5 Point 6.75 (next year its going up) Hedman 7.875 McDonagh 6.75 Gourde 5.166 These guys are all locked up for 3+ years Thats 54 mil, thats with them moving Palat and Johnson. Who knows maybe they can Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli need new contracts in 2 years…. Currently they soak up 11.6mil on their current contracts. The cap is expected to remain flat, they are going to have to move a big piece. They’ll definitely get a better return than what my drunk as$ posted, but I would expect one of the RFAs to be gone within the next couple years. Either that or they will move on from one of the big UFAs They have no choice but to lose 1 or 2 of them. No way they can keep all 3 or even 2 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knucklehead91 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bertuzzipunch said: They have no choice but to lose 1 or 2 of them. No way they can keep all 3 or even 2 imo Yea its an inevitable loss for them and teams will smell blood and it will go to the lowest underseller. Why would any team waste resources to acquire a guy that a team HAS to give up. I dont see them getting full value in return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bertuzzipunch Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Just now, knucklehead91 said: Yea its an inevitable loss for them and teams will smell blood and it will go to the lowest underseller. Why would any team waste resources to acquire a guy that a team HAS to give up. I dont see them getting full value in return Plus they have to give point an extension soon. Thats gonna cost them at least 3 mill more than hes making atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knucklehead91 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Bertuzzipunch said: Plus they have to give point an extension soon. Thats gonna cost them at least 3 mill more than hes making atm. Yea and thats next season, then the big 3 the following season and it will be ridiculously difficult for them to keep everyone. Maybe they move McDonagh, but even then they still have so many players to sign this year and next, its going to be a losing battle of cap attrition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 (edited) On 7/2/2021 at 1:37 AM, knucklehead91 said: Ferlands LTIR+picks for Cernak = cap space. They are not taking on any additional cap space so it does free space for them, just not enough. They are well over the cap and still have a few players to sign. The ED should get them under the cap with 1 of their 5 mil contracts being exposed, you'd think. I dont see why any teams would want to do them any favours to help their cap situation, if anyone is to do them any favours its going to cost Tampa big time, no one is taking a cap dump for them without something substantial in return, thats if a team will even take a cap dump from them. Why would anyone take the crap they dont want so they can try and go for a 3rd cup. They dont have a 1st or 2nd this year or a 2nd or 3rd next year, even then TBLs 1st next year is likely to be in the bottom of the 1st round so its not even a great draft pick. I definitely had the wrong understanding of LTIR and how it works with the cap, but if TBL is in cap trouble and they cant afford to take on ANY cap in exchange for a player, ideally they would need an LTIR move to get bodies/cap out. Even if Ferland offered $1 or $10000000000 bazillion of LTIR, it doesnt matter, right? Because as you explained only the LTIR can exceed the cap, everything else must remain within the 81.5mil salary cap..... Am I getting that right? And the LTIR cap just gets tacked on top, correct? It looks like they spent 98mil but their actual roster is 81.5mil.....however because Kucherov is actually playing its more like a 91mil salary cap in the post-season as opposed to the 98mil from the additional LTIR of Gaborik and Nilsson who arent even part of the cup winning equation on ice. If I am understanding this right, LTIR for TBL would come at a premium, they are over the cap, need to sign players, need to exchange real cap for fictional cap or draft picks, won a cup and are on the way to their 2nd cup in back to back years, plus all the years of success prior being a top team in the league the last 3-5 years. Brisebois is going to have to suck it up at some point and get less for what he's giving away in order to keep the team intact and continue to try and prolong their period of contending. They can continue to add to their roster and extend the window through the draft, so if they move a valuable player out and lose another contract to the ED, they aren't completely dismantled, they free some cap and get some picks to hopefully draft a stud and insert that guy into the lineup on an ELC to extend the window. Lets be real, no one is taking a 30+ player on a 5mil+ deal for any amount of term for TBL after they win a 2nd cup. I just dont see it happening, maybe I'm crazy, but something in Tampa has to give and its going to have to be something good. What do you think? It would clear Cernak's contract - so they gain 2.95M in cap space but would need to replace him. Ferland wouldn't add to their cap space as he'd be on LTIR. If Cernak is on the block they'll get quite a haul - he's turned into a beast. Cooper says he's been a star for them. I don't see why they would burden themselves with an LTIR contract in return. Someone like Killorn only makes 200K more than Arvidsson. Killorn is nearly a ppg in the post-season. Arvidsson has struggled the past 2 seasons and been injured a lot but still brought back 40th overall and a 3rd round pick. Killorn will most likely have trade interest, so will Palat maybe even Gourde. Johnson will be much harder to move but they have other solid tradable assets without having to move a core player like Cernak. Teams like Pittsburgh, Washington and even St Louis have ageing cores and want a last run at the Cup before they need to go into a rebuild (- I realise their cap situation). Even Colorado is starting to get pressed to the cap and might not be able to retain Landeskog or Saad (Makar is a priority and they also need to be mindful of MacKinnon in 2 seasons). Killorn is 4.45M and his contract expires before they have to pay MacKinnon. They could also consider a buyout for Johnson - it would be a 1M cap hit and would push the issue into the seasons after. Just feels like they have options. Don't see other GMs passing on the opportunity to improve their own team. Tampa was cap strapped but Miller still got them a good return because he was a good player on a good contract. Edited July 3, 2021 by mll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gawdzukes Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 (edited) @mll You can quote the CBA all you want and make up English words and use jargon and say it's a detriment and it doesn't create cap space but you're wrong. The bolts are artificially raising their cap and winning the Cup because of it. Teams have been using LTIR to bring in better players and run at a higher cap during the regular season for a long time. It's funny watching you try to defend it it or pretend it doesn't happen, or it's not effective, or a thing. Edited July 3, 2021 by Gawdzukes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knucklehead91 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 3 hours ago, mll said: It would clear Cernak's contract - so they gain 2.95M in cap space but would need to replace him. Ferland wouldn't add to their cap space as he'd be on LTIR. If Cernak is on the block they'll get quite a haul - he's turned into a beast. Cooper says he's been a star for them. I don't see why they would burden themselves with an LTIR contract in return. Someone like Killorn only makes 200K more than Arvidsson. Killorn is nearly a ppg in the post-season. Arvidsson has struggled the past 2 seasons and been injured a lot but still brought back 40th overall and a 3rd round pick. Killorn will most likely have trade interest, so will Palat maybe even Gourde. Johnson will be much harder to move but they have other solid tradable assets without having to move a core player like Cernak. Teams like Pittsburgh, Washington and even St Louis have ageing cores and want a last run at the Cup before they need to go into a rebuild (- I realise their cap situation). Even Colorado is starting to get pressed to the cap and might not be able to retain Landeskog or Saad (Makar is a priority and they also need to be mindful of MacKinnon in 2 seasons). Killorn is 4.45M and his contract expires before they have to pay MacKinnon. They could also consider a buyout for Johnson - it would be a 1M cap hit and would push the issue into the seasons after. Just feels like they have options. Don't see other GMs passing on the opportunity to improve their own team. Tampa was cap strapped but Miller still got them a good return because he was a good player on a good contract. They may have options, but whos got the better deal. Carolina, Florida, Vegas, Colorado or Tampa? They need to compete with the teams that are ready to win and wanting to win who will do whatever it takes to get the players they need at whatever cost. Tampa is running out of assets to sweeten the deal. They gave up a lot the last couple years. They were tight to the cap last season, but werent over the cap. This season they are well over the cap and in the next couple years, one of the core pieces will have to go, maybe even 2. They have a lot of ink to put down on paper right now and they only have 19 players signed going into next season, with 5mil over the cap and Brayden Point needs a new contract next season and then the other 3 big RFAs the following season. They have almost zero bargaining power, they are beyond f***ed with their cap situation the next couple years. But its not really like they should be too upset, they are about to win back to back cups and if it costs them a player like Cernak or Cirelli or maybe one of the big UFAs who cares, They’ve achieved the ultimate goal in back to back years. Tampa has a very long road ahead getting their cap situation under control. There will be plenty of teams out there wanting to win who are able to give a better deal than Tampa I would think. Tampa has to shed cap like crazy and compete with the other potential deals out there as they attempt to dump 30+ Players on 5 mil deals around the league That Johnson 1mil cap hit in the following seasons will make it even more of a sticky situation when Point, Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachev all need new deals within 2 years and all their big UFAs are locked up for 3+ Even if they move Johnson, Gourde, Palat AAAND Killorn, between their big guys they take up 49mil. then you add in Points raise which will be around 2-3mil at least, brings them up to 52ish plus Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachev… thats going to be atleast 20mil bringing them up to 72mil at the minimum. If the cap is going to remain flat for the next 3-4 years like they predict, that leaves them 9.5mil… and only 10 guys signed… thats less than half of a 23man roster, they are in a bind and they are going to end up getting less than full value in return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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