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the Importance or lack there of faceoffs in NHL Hockey.

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So I have argued for a while know why faceoffs are not very important to the outcome of a game. I will show why this is true and how the aquisition of a poor faceoff performer like Dickinson is not significant in any considerable amount to our success as a club.

 

in 2012 seingtheice presents some data . https://seeingtheice.wordpress.com/2012/02/07/the-importance-of-faceoffs/

 

1. A study shows that there is about 60 faceoffs per game

2. one faceoff is equal to about 5 seconds of possession time

 

Lets do the math. a team that wins 55% of the faceoffs would win 33/60 or about 30 seconds. An average team will take roughly 30 shots and control the puck for 1/2 of the game. so 30 minutes or 1800 seconds + 15 = 30/1815= or about 0.8% more possesion time. 15 seconds *101.08% = 1/4 a shot * 82 games = 20.7 shots

the average shot has 8.5% chance of going in * 20.7 shots = 1.75 goals over the course of a full year

 

when these extra 1.75 goals happen might not even be significant to the result of the game. end result =near zero significance

 

Sports illustrated came out with an article in 2015 regarding faceoff importance, there view was that there was no long term gains from being a good faceoff team

https://www.si.com/nhl/2017/03/03/illustrated-review-importance-nhl-faceoff

 

Here is a major argument they present.

 

Comparing two seasons they found that a team that wins 60% of the faceoffs wins 51.6% of those games.

 

82 games * 0.516 = they will win on average 0.3 more games due to faceoffs or about a little less than 1 point in the standings.

 

So when we analyze Dickinsons face off game he took about 300 faceoffs last year winning 46.23% or 22 faceoffs lost

22 faceoffs * 5 seconds of possession = 110 seconds or about 2 shots over the year. this equates to about 0.17 goals against per the total year.

 

 

Big math time= 300/5100 = 5.9% which is how many faceoffs dickinson took on the dallas team. even if he took 50% of the faceoffs and the other centers won 50%

it would only result in the team losing 5100*.484 losing 164 faceoffs over the year 

164*5 seconds= 820 seconds or 14 minutes or 14shots or 1 goal against over the entire year

 

so don't worry be happy.

 

further noted it has been shown that Faceoffs are not important to NHL hockey, but for amateur hockey the small bonus gained from possesion is magnified. So if you find that these results are misleading they mean very little towards amateur hockey where there is significant more scoring.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Petey_BOI
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Faceoffs are overrated.  At the end of the day it's all about puck possession.  I see teams that win the draw and then lose the puck one second later.  Also, alot of faceoffs aren't won cleanly so the numbers are very misleading.  I mean you can win a faceoff and pass the puck directly to the opposition, or win it and two players are scrambling for the puck and the opposition gets it, so again it's about puck possession.

 

How many faceoffs are won cleanly and the opposition has a clear shot at the net?  Like King said they are more important on special teams as you either have the extra man to gain possession or you are short handed and can immediately send the puck down the ice.  Faceoffs are less important 5 on 5.  And alot of them are taken in the neutral zone where it's almost irrelevant who win the draw and the guy winning is just padding his stats.

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1 hour ago, Petey_BOI said:

So I have argued for a while know why faceoffs are not very important to the outcome of a game. I will show why this is true and how the aquisition of a poor faceoff performer like Dickinson is not significant in any considerable amount to our success as a club.

 

in 2012 seingtheice presents some data . https://seeingtheice.wordpress.com/2012/02/07/the-importance-of-faceoffs/

 

1. A study shows that there is about 60 faceoffs per game

2. one faceoff is equal to about 5 seconds of possession time

 

Lets do the math. a team that wins 55% of the faceoffs would win 33/60 or about 30 seconds. An average team will take roughly 30 shots and control the puck for 1/2 of the game. so 30 minutes or 1800 seconds + 15 = 30/1815= or about 0.8% more possesion time. 15 seconds *101.08% = 1/4 a shot * 82 games = 20.7 shots

the average shot has 8.5% chance of going in * 20.7 shots = 1.75 goals over the course of a full year

 

when these extra 1.75 goals happen might not even be significant to the result of the game. end result =near zero significance

 

Sports illustrated came out with an article in 2015 regarding faceoff importance, there view was that there was no long term gains from being a good faceoff team

https://www.si.com/nhl/2017/03/03/illustrated-review-importance-nhl-faceoff

 

Here is a major argument they present.

 

Comparing two seasons they found that a team that wins 60% of the faceoffs wins 51.6% of those games.

 

82 games * 0.516 = they will win on average 0.3 more games due to faceoffs or about a little less than 1 point in the standings.

 

So when we analyze Dickinsons face off game he took about 300 faceoffs last year winning 46.23% or 22 faceoffs lost

22 faceoffs * 5 seconds of possession = 110 seconds or about 2 shots over the year. this equates to about 0.17 goals against per the total year.

 

 

Big math time= 300/5100 = 5.9% which is how many faceoffs dickinson took on the dallas team. even if he took 50% of the faceoffs and the other centers won 50%

it would only result in the team losing 5100*.484 losing 164 faceoffs over the year 

164*5 seconds= 820 seconds or 14 minutes or 14shots or 1 goal against over the entire year

 

so don't worry be happy.

 

further noted it has been shown that Faceoffs are not important to NHL hockey, but for amateur hockey the small bonus gained from possesion is magnified. So if you find that these results are misleading they mean very little towards amateur hockey where there is significant more scoring.

 

 

 

 

 

Dude I'm gonna let you in on this cuz I think youre a cool guy.

 

Pineapple on pizza!

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1 minute ago, hammertime said:

Dude I'm gonna let you in on this cuz I think youre a cool guy.

 

Pineapple on pizza!

Yeah but i want olives sausage, pepperoni, onion and green peppers too

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I'd hate to be a Debbie downer but I am seeing a pattern here 

 

Dickinson is not that good in Faceoffs - conclusion Faceoffs are not that important

 

Canucks pick Virtanen over Nylander or Ehlera - "it's not all about goal scoring" 

 

 

Edited by iinatcc
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Agreed, but offensive zone faceoffs with 10 seconds left, trailing by a goal with the goalie pulled are much more important to the game than a random neutral zone faceoff in a 6-0 game.

 

Basically, faceoffs are important when they matter, clutch faceoffs are huge in a game. I agree that on the whole we make too much fuss about them because they're a statstic we can see, whereas IMO neutral zone turnovers and forechecking are far more important to a game, but are not as easy to turn into a sexy statistic that we can judge players by (also this is more of a team effort rather than individual).

 

If you see a good team in the playoffs winning the possession over and over it's often via great forechecking, timely pinches and standing up or clogging the neutral zone effectively, and bad teams (like the Canucks for most of the season) forced into brutal giveaways all over the ice. This results in far more possession and also often better quality chances than a faceoff.

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43 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Cool stats.  Only pizza is all meat, extra meat and double cheese.  

I actually do not like meat on my Pizza since it over powers the flavors of the sauce tomatoes and pesto and cheese for me 

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I strongly disagree with these metrics being used to encompass the importance of faceoffs. Let me illustrate it another way. These numbers would suggest that finishing the season in the top half of faceoff % significantly improves your chances of making the playoffs.

 

2021 ..............11 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (68.7%)

                         5 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (33.3%)

 

2020.............. 10 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (62.5%)

                         6 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (40.0%)

 

2019............. 12 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (75.0%)

                         4 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (26.6%)

 

https://puckbase.com/stats/team-faceoffs?year=2020

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Maybe face-off winning isn't AS important but it does matter and is still a factor when choosing a player. So what about Manny Malhotra hype.  Sure, winning a faceoff only accounts for 5 seconds but that's only if the other team takes it off you.

I'm envisioning a pipe that drops down from above that drops the puck some time within 4 seconds and eliminates the linesman games and guys getting thrown out of the circle crap.

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2 hours ago, iinatcc said:

I actually do not like meat on my Pizza since it over powers the flavors of the sauce tomatoes and pesto and cheese for me 

I prefer my pizza with no sauce or bread.  Basically it’s just a plate with lots of meat and cheese.  :frantic:

My point is:  it’s like these faceoff stats - silly.  

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22 minutes ago, Rick Blight said:

I strongly disagree with these metrics being used to encompass the importance of faceoffs. Let me illustrate it another way. These numbers would suggest that finishing the season in the top half of faceoff % significantly improves your chances of making the playoffs.

 

2021 ..............11 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (68.7%)

                         5 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (33.3%)

 

2020.............. 10 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (62.5%)

                         6 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (40.0%)

 

2019............. 12 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (75.0%)

                         4 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (26.6%)

 

https://puckbase.com/stats/team-faceoffs?year=2020

Right on. 

But here's a thought. Prior to Bo's next contract let's promote the idea that face-off don't matter. 

Boy, those face-off guys sure fight hard for that puck(pointlessly)don't they? 

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53 minutes ago, Gollumpus said:

 

                                                                    regards,  G.

cool video, 

 

there were 120 goals last year that came within 10 seconds of a faceoff. of the 15000 goals made up on average almost 0.8% of the goals. which would most likey equate to 0.4-0.8%% of games won.

 

almost tells you about something faceoffs, Like that a team wins 60%of its faceoffs wins 51.6% of those games which equates to 1 point in the standings.

 

Best Regards, from the stats guy

 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Rick Blight said:

I strongly disagree with these metrics being used to encompass the importance of faceoffs. Let me illustrate it another way. These numbers would suggest that finishing the season in the top half of faceoff % significantly improves your chances of making the playoffs.

 

2021 ..............11 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (68.7%)

                         5 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (33.3%)

 

2020.............. 10 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (62.5%)

                         6 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (40.0%)

 

2019............. 12 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (75.0%)

                         4 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (26.6%)

 

https://puckbase.com/stats/team-faceoffs?year=2020

and your stats don't prove anything at all, I broke down my stats down to possesion time and shots on goal.

 

the fact that philli and vancouver ranked 2nd and 5th and TBL and MTL ranked 16th, 24th and BOS 1st And NYR last. and the fact that the #6 team won a total of 118 extra faceoffs over the entire season and the #24 team won 130 less.

 

there were around 104000 faceoffs last year. 120 goals within 10 seconds of a faceoff 120/31= about 4 goals per team due to faceoff wins

for boston 8*.55=4.4

for NYR 8*.44=3.5

the difference between the 2 is 0.9 goals or about 1 point in the standings

 

 

Edited by Petey_BOI
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25 minutes ago, Petey_BOI said:

cool video, 

 

there were 120 goals last year that came within 10 seconds of a faceoff. of the 15000 goals made up on average almost 0.8% of the goals. which would most likey equate to 0.4-0.8%% of games won.

 

almost tells you about something faceoffs, Like that a team wins 60%of its faceoffs wins 51.6% of those games which equates to 1 point in the standings.

 

Best Regards, from the stats guy

 

Cool stats.

 

As you're talking stats:

 

1.) how many teams have won 60% of the face offs during any given season? This seems a rather high mark to use for your thesis.

2.) why are you using 60% as your cut off point? How do the numbers change if they drop to 55%, or even 50%?

 

I suppose that since face off wins are rather irrelevant, statistically speaking, why should a team put any effort into winning them?

 

                                                               regards,  G.

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