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the Importance or lack there of faceoffs in NHL Hockey.

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47 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

I don't know if using Tampa Bay to support your thesis is all that strong of a position. They are the best team in a decade - the counter argument is that they have more than enough strength in all other areas of the game to compensate. Further, the difference between 9th or 6th may be a few tenth's of a percent. Not significant. But we all know how important a defensive zone faceoff is in the closing minutes of a game. We saw it with Manny Malhotra.

 

11 out of the top 15 faceoff teams (73%) made the playoffs this year. imo that's a pretty strong case that they play a large role in team success, most of the time. The teams in the bottom half were TB (16th), VGK (20), PIT (21), WAS (22), MTL (25). I think the argument can be easily made that those teams, minus MTL, all are strong enough in other areas to compensate for being weaker at faceoffs. The Canadiens are the outlier.

puck posession and 5vs5 scoring is a infinetly better metric to gauge success and those two stats are not correlated to faceoffs. 

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56 minutes ago, Petey_BOI said:

puck posession and 5vs5 scoring is a infinetly better metric to gauge success and those two stats are not correlated to faceoffs. 

You're right. Winning a faceoff has no correlation to puck possession. Nailed it.

 

Edit: And just so you can cool it on your analytics high, look at how predominantly focusing on analytics (as they seem to say) has worked out for Arizona and TO. But yes, please focus more on these articles that are based on analysis of stats without properly considering the context. It'll serve you well.

Edited by Psycho_Path
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1 minute ago, Psycho_Path said:

You're right. Winning a faceoff has no correlation to puck possession. Nailed it.

its true, just because you don't believe it doesn't mean its wrong. remember 80% of shifts are played on the fly.

 

https://www.hockeywilderness.com/2014/11/6/7155985/faceoffs-nhl-possession-correlation-do-faceoffs-matter

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1 hour ago, Petey_BOI said:

puck posession and 5vs5 scoring is a infinetly better metric to gauge success and those two stats are not correlated to faceoffs. 

Well duh. Obviously 5v5 scoring is a better metric lol. 85% of the game is played 5v5. You don't win without goals and you don't score without possession of the puck. No one is saying that faceoffs are more important than those two metrics. Your argument is that faceoffs aren't important to winning games. Yet, 73% of playoff teams are in the top half of the league in faceoff percentage. So success in the faceoff circle appears to correlate with a playoff birth.

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5 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

Well duh. Obviously 5v5 scoring is a better metric lol. 85% of the game is played 5v5. You don't win without goals and you don't score without possession of the puck. No one is saying that faceoffs are more important than those two metrics. Your argument is that faceoffs aren't important to winning games. Yet, 73% of playoff teams are in the top half of the league in faceoff percentage. So success in the faceoff circle appears to correlate with a playoff birth.

but it doesn't, it really doesn't. vancouver and philli were ranked 2nd and 5th. Faceoffs and winning perecentages vary wildly, extremely. you have to think outside the box, faceoffs are the fanciest of stats a neat little mini game.

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On 7/18/2021 at 12:34 AM, Elias Pettersson said:

Faceoffs are overrated.  At the end of the day it's all about puck possession.  I see teams that win the draw and then lose the puck one second later.  Also, alot of faceoffs aren't won cleanly so the numbers are very misleading.  I mean you can win a faceoff and pass the puck directly to the opposition, or win it and two players are scrambling for the puck and the opposition gets it, so again it's about puck possession.

 

How many faceoffs are won cleanly and the opposition has a clear shot at the net?  Like King said they are more important on special teams as you either have the extra man to gain possession or you are short handed and can immediately send the puck down the ice.  Faceoffs are less important 5 on 5.  And a lot of them are taken in the neutral zone where it's almost irrelevant who win the draw and the guy winning is just padding his stats.

This logical post deserves everyone upvoting.  It simply described the dynamics of faceoffs. Like Petey said the control of the puck is dependent upon the location of the draw.  If you are on the PK taking a draw in the defensive zone and win that draw, you gain enough control--time and possession-- to throw it down the ice and hopefully all the way.  This then benefits the way the PK D can set up with four across the line. It then allows them to clog things up and force more pucks back into the other zone.  Winning draws changes dynamics.  I think as a Texan living in Missouri and a lifetime Canucks fan, this post is better than eating fried pickles.  When it is done right, they are fantastic.

 

Edited by The Colt 45s
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22 hours ago, Rick Blight said:

I strongly disagree with these metrics being used to encompass the importance of faceoffs. Let me illustrate it another way. These numbers would suggest that finishing the season in the top half of faceoff % significantly improves your chances of making the playoffs.

 

2021 ..............11 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (68.7%)

                         5 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (33.3%)

 

2020.............. 10 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (62.5%)

                         6 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (40.0%)

 

2019............. 12 of the top 16 faceoff teams made the playoffs (75.0%)

                         4 of the bottom 15 faceoff teams made the playoffs (26.6%)

 

https://puckbase.com/stats/team-faceoffs?year=2020

@erkayloomeh

@Gollumpus

@Psycho_Path

@Elias Pettersson

@Jimmy McGill

 

 on the fly play generally  es makes up about 80% of the scoring and about 48.2 minutes

powerplay opportunities represent about 11.8 minutes of play or 20%

of those 60 minutes faceoffs represent about 5 minutes of posession or about 8% of the game. 92% of posession is played outside the faceoff circle.

 

92% of 5vs5 or ES play decides the game, with the occasional odd goal coming off faceoffs about 120 in a entire NHL season for all teams combined.

and as you can see the correlation between winning vs 5vs5 scoring and puck possesion is very much related. however faceoffs have very little to do with puck possessions. once you factor out 3vs3 scoring faceoffs are irrelevant to the standings

Team GP W L P score ES Scoring *.80 pk % *2 PP % *2 top 16 faceoffs top 16 possessio0
Colorado Avalanche 56 39 13 82 11.498 9.4 1.672 0.426 1 1
Vegas Golden Knights 56 40 14 82 10.326 8.2 1.792 0.334 0 1
Toronto Maple Leafs 56 35 14 77 9.722 7.8 1.612 0.31 1 1
Washington Capitals 56 36 15 77 8.296 6.2 1.704 0.392 0 1
Pittsburgh Penguins 56 37 16 77 8.048 6 1.626 0.422 0 1
Florida Panthers 56 37 14 79 8.01 6 1.642 0.368 1 1
Carolina Hurricanes 56 36 12 80 7.624 5.4 1.784 0.44 1 1
New York Islanders 56 32 17 71 6.91 4.8 1.734 0.376 1 1
Minnesota Wild 56 35 16 75 6.756 4.8 1.64 0.316 0 1
Boston Bruins 56 33 16 73 5.782 3.6 1.82 0.362 1 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 56 36 17 75 5.528 3.4 1.716 0.412 1 1
New York Rangers 56 27 23 60 5.108 3 1.74 0.368 0 0
Nashville Predators 56 31 23 64 4.91 3 1.582 0.328 1 1
Winnipeg Jets 56 30 23 63 4.674 2.6 1.652 0.422 1 0
Dallas Stars 56 23 19 60 4.442 2.4 1.622 0.42 1 1
Calgary Flames 56 26 27 55 3.714 1.8 1.628 0.286 0 1
Montréal Canadiens 56 24 21 59 3.232 1.2 1.674 0.358 0 1
Edmonton Oilers 56 35 19 72 2.582 0.4 1.676 0.506 1 0
St. Louis Blues 56 27 20 63 0.878 -1.2 1.626 0.452 1 0
Arizona Coyotes 56 24 26 54 0.01 -2 1.64 0.37 0 0
New Jersey Devils 56 19 30 45 -1.52 -3.2 1.46 0.22 0 0
Los Angeles Kings 56 21 28 49 -1.746 -3.8 1.71 0.344 1 0
Chicago Blackhawks 56 24 25 55 -2.07 -4 1.576 0.354 0 0
Anaheim Ducks 56 17 30 43 -2.28 -4 1.622 0.098 1 0
Ottawa Senators 56 23 28 51 -2.288 -4.2 1.66 0.252 0 0
Detroit Red Wings 56 19 27 48 -2.452 -4.2 1.574 0.174 0 0
Philadelphia Flyers 56 25 23 58 -2.814 -4.6 1.474 0.312 1 1
San Jose Sharks 56 21 28 49 -3.106 -5 1.664 0.23 0 0
Vancouver Canucks 56 23 29 50 -3.242 -5.2 1.662 0.296 1 0
Columbus Blue Jackets 56 18 26 48 -4.456 -6.4 1.67 0.274 0 0
Buffalo Sabres 56 15 34 37 -7.424 -9.4 1.626 0.35 0 0
Edited by Petey_BOI
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I'm not going to get too much into this but I think really the importance of faceoffs is going to fluctuate as the game evolves. Some decades the extra puck possession from faceoffs will be more important than other decades.

 

Just as a sort of related example, this is similar to how some defensemen after the 2005 lockout started finding themselves obsolete as their own position changed due to the faster pace of the game. We started seeing less and less "tough" defensemen and more speedy defensemen who could keep up with the forwards.

 

 

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12 hours ago, Petey_BOI said:

ok wording.

 

I do believe there are critical faceoffs, some mean much more than others like the opening faceoff or neutral zone draws vs PP

 

but here is another article showing that possesion and faceoffs don't correlate. why because 80% of the game is played on the fly.

 

https://www.hockeywilderness.com/2014/11/6/7155985/faceoffs-nhl-possession-correlation-do-faceoffs-matter

 

 

but strong 5vs5 play out side the mini game of faceoffs is what wins game, there is a measurement on this and its dangerous 5v5 shot attempts or basically slot shots. montreal lead the league in 5vs5 scoring this year and TBL lead the league last year. 5vs5 scoring or prevention of scoring will lead to playoff success and it has next to nothing to do with faceoffs. Faceoffs are a mini game, that have less relevance than shootout performance in the regular season.


 

I think what you're correctly showing is there are a number of important factors, face offs being one of them at certain times. 

 

 

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15 hours ago, Petey_BOI said:

crap on top of crap.

 

I have no reason to backup my stats because they hold true to what they are.

 

I'm not going to repeat myself for the third time.

 

enjoy living in a world where faceoffs matter.

Well, sorry for the delay in posting a response. I was doing important stuff like watching the SF Giants' Triple-A team (the Rivercats https://www.milb.com/sacramento) get blasted 14-0 for part of that time, listening to Band Maid (https://www.youtube.com/c/BANDMAID/videos) and I was enjoying the Sun and having a beer (or two) with a friend (or two). 

 

You should be able to provide some supporting data rather than just the results you get from your efforts. Are people just supposed to take your word for anything? Not saying you are a liar or any such thing, but some people like to see how you got to where you are. I see you have listed a number of numbers in later posts. 

 

 

Using the "45% of face offs won" as a starting point, you claim that teams/fans shouldn't be concerned with that number, that the difference it makes in goals and the like is not worth worrying about. @Elias Pettersson agrees with you: "Faceoffs are overrated.  At the end of the day it's all about puck possession." Well, what coach wouldn't want his team to start the play by winning a draw, taking possession of the puck and having a better chance of scoring, or getting the puck out of their own end? What team wouldn't want to be on the higher side of that winning the draw percentage and getting that edge in goals for or against, even if it is minimal?

 

What coach would be okay with his team losing a majority (even 55%, using the 45% number from above) of the face offs? And how would that face offs won/lost affect the length of his career? "It's about puck possession", so isn't starting play being in possession of the puck preferable to chasing the other guy who has the puck? Isn't it better to have the puck, which gives your team an edge in achieving a desired end?

 

Isn't there a physical advantage to be had in having the puck rather than chasing the puck. Sure, there will be lots of examples of teams winning a draw and then losing the puck quickly, but the other team still had to do the chasing. What about a mental edge? Is it preferable to have a team dreading a face off, or being confident that they have a better chance to win said face off?

 

I'm assuming (so there's no evidence to support my contention here) that a group of players would prefer to believe that they are better off winning a draw and starting play with the puck, rather than "knowing" that losing the draw doesn't really matter over the course of an entire season.

 

                                                           regards,  G.

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