[Trade] Canucks trade Jay Beagle, Loui Eriksson, Antoine Roussel, 2021 1st-round pick, 2022 2nd-round pick, 2023 7th-round pick to Coyotes for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland

[BigTramFan]

1 hour ago, UnkNuk said:

And a further question:

 

I notice OEL's +/- last season was -17 which ranked him 265/270 in defensemen.  Do you chalk this up to his being on a poor team?

 

Also, while your stats show his offensive play is holding steady, are there any comparable stats that show how his defensive skills are doing?

 

Apologies if this has already been discussed in this rather long thread.

+/- is not a great stat, especially for an offensive Dman. But I don't see any trend in his +/- stats over time (i.e. they're all over the place and not good, unsurprising for an offensive Dman on a bad team). Obviously 2015-16 was a standout year for him with 55 pts and a +/- of only -6.

[UnkNuk]

1 hour ago, BigTramFan said:

+/- is not a great stat, especially for an offensive Dman. But I don't see any trend in his +/- stats over time (i.e. they're all over the place and not good, unsurprising for an offensive Dman on a bad team). Obviously 2015-16 was a standout year for him with 55 pts and a +/- of only -6.

 

What stats are most useful, in your opinion, to rank a defenceman?

 

(And a correction to my previous post:   last year OEL at -17 ranked 265/274 in defensemen.  Also, I note that Quinn Hughes at -24 was 272/274 in defensemen.  I hope you're right that +/- isn't a great stat for offensive Dmen!)

[73 Percent]

Just now, UnkNuk said:

What stats are most useful, in your opinion, to rank a defenceman?

 

(And a correction to my previous post:   last year OEL at -17 ranked 265/274 in defensemen.  Also, I note that Quinn Hughes at -24 was 272/274 in defensemen.  I hope you're right that +/- isn't a great stat for offensive Dmen!)

It's great stat that no one cares about. Until it supports your opinion. 

[73 Percent]

2 minutes ago, UnkNuk said:

What stats are most useful, in your opinion, to rank a defenceman?

 

(And a correction to my previous post:   last year OEL at -17 ranked 265/274 in defensemen.  Also, I note that Quinn Hughes at -24 was 272/274 in defensemen.  I hope you're right that +/- isn't a great stat for offensive Dmen!)

Care to take a look at the other defensman at the bottom of the +/- barrel?

 

Dahlin 

Savard

Hughes

Sanhiem 

Colin miller

Seth jones

Heronik 

Erik karlsson 

Ristolainen 

OEL

Subban 

De haan 

Chariot 

Doubty 

Burns 

 

Some big names on that list. Like some of the best Dman in the league actually. One on our wish list of players to acquire this offseason.

 

 

[Dixon Ward]

On 7/29/2021 at 10:21 AM, The.Burrowers said:

https://youtu.be/Tk4mMg7Nvzw

 

Im a fan of the trade but this video certainly puts his struggles into perspective.  Hopefully he can get some of his confidence back next year because we will face McDavid a lot and if he is going to be our number 1 Dman he will need to contain him.

 

 

 

 

Connor McDavid is the fastest, best player in the world.  The fact that you get beat by him a few times is not a sign of your struggles.   It's a sign that he is really f ing fast and really f ing good.

[UnkNuk]

1 hour ago, 73 Percent said:

It's great stat that no one cares about. Until it supports your opinion. 

So +/- is a useful stat?

 

1 hour ago, 73 Percent said:

Care to take a look at the other defensman at the bottom of the +/- barrel?

 

Dahlin 

Savard

Hughes

Sanhiem 

Colin miller

Seth jones

Heronik 

Erik karlsson 

Ristolainen 

OEL

Subban 

De haan 

Chariot 

Doubty 

Burns 

 

Some big names on that list. Like some of the best Dman in the league actually. One on our wish list of players to acquire this offseason.

 

 

So +/- isn't a useful stat?

 

I may be misunderstanding your two posts but they seem to contradict one another.

 

Should we be concerned, in your opinion, about OEL's low ranking in +/- stats?

 

Thanks.

[wallstreetamigo]

+/- is best used as a supporting stat in a basket of several especially in evaluating the defensive play of any individual player. It is flawed in the sense it is very much a team stat.

 

As an example, a player can jump off the bench 5 seconds before a goal is scored at either end, thus having no actual impact either way on the result, yet still ends up with a + or - out of the deal. And the player he replaced, who could have coughed up the puck or made a good defensive play to break the puck out for an offensive chancegets no credit or blame in the stat.

 

Regarding OEL, the eye test and basket of statistical analysis shows that he has regressed on the defensive side fairly significantly over the last few years. There should be concern based on that but not panic. We dont know yet how he will respond to different coaching and a different structure defensively.

 

 

Edited August 2, 2021 by wallstreetamigo

[73 Percent]

2 hours ago, UnkNuk said:

So +/- is a useful stat?

 

So +/- isn't a useful stat?

 

I may be misunderstanding your two posts but they seem to contradict one another.

 

Should we be concerned, in your opinion, about OEL's low ranking in +/- stats?

 

Thanks.

Its  useless &^@#ing stat

[Gnarcore]

3 hours ago, Dixon Ward said:

Connor McDavid is the fastest, best player in the world.  The fact that you get beat by him a few times is not a sign of your struggles.   It's a sign that he is really f ing fast and really f ing good.

*best offensive player during the regular season. 

 

I'll take several players over him come playoffs. 

 

 

[UnkNuk]

2 hours ago, 73 Percent said:

Its  useless &^@#ing stat

Well, I guess that answers that.

 

Thanks!             

[Dixon Ward]

2 hours ago, Gnarcore said:

*best offensive player during the regular season. 

 

I'll take several players over him come playoffs. 

 

 

Not the point.

[FaninMex]

18 hours ago, Dixon Ward said:

Connor McDavid is the fastest, best player in the world.  The fact that you get beat by him a few times is not a sign of your struggles.   It's a sign that he is really f ing fast and really f ing good.

It is also a sign that he is being relied upon to play against the top players in the league every night. 

[iceman64]

On 8/1/2021 at 3:45 PM, 73 Percent said:

Care to take a look at the other defensman at the bottom of the +/- barrel?

 

Dahlin 

Savard

Hughes

Sanhiem 

Colin miller

Seth jones

Heronik 

Erik karlsson 

Ristolainen 

OEL

Subban 

De haan 

Chariot 

Doubty 

Burns 

 

Some big names on that list. Like some of the best Dman in the league actually. One on our wish list of players to acquire this offseason.

 

 

Stop using logic.. people will just get mad, most knee jerk reactions without using brains starting with the media rule here on the CDC.. get with the program! lol I surely hope you don't, it gets old fast and you stop laughing and just shake your head...

[BigTramFan]

On 8/2/2021 at 10:38 AM, UnkNuk said:

What stats are most useful, in your opinion, to rank a defenceman?

 

(And a correction to my previous post:   last year OEL at -17 ranked 265/274 in defensemen.  Also, I note that Quinn Hughes at -24 was 272/274 in defensemen.  I hope you're right that +/- isn't a great stat for offensive Dmen!)

I'm really not an expert on stats, so many others could probably answer better.

 

Firstly, ranking defensemen is quite fraught because stats won't tell the whole story. Context is everything. In terms of quality of opposition, quality of their own team, who they are paired with, minutes played/fatigue, whether the player is chasing the game because their team is trailing. These things all come into it.

 

For example, Hughes was -24 right? He spent 49% of his even strength ice time paired with Hamonic, together as a pair they were only -1. When paired with Myers (18% of EV time) they were -14. When paired with Benn (17%) they were +2. This shows that Hughes wasn't actually that bad, except when paired with Myers and they were terrible. But why were they terrible? I would say it was because they were paired together as our best offensive Dmen when chasing a game, taking chances and getting scored on. So context matters. On a better team that is leading more often, those two don't get paired together and they don't need to take chances to score late in the game and their +/- is consequently much better. This is why an offensive Dman on a bad team will generally have a poor +/-. It doesn't always mean they are terrible defensively.

 

Anyway, with regard to OEL and his defensive trends. I would tend to look at even strength goals against (i.e. how many goals were scored against his team), per 60 mins that he was on the ice. This takes out the variable of TOI but it still matters who he played with and who he played against and the state of the game at those times. Anyway here's how it looks:

 

OEL's Even Strength On Ice GA/60:

2010-11    2.4

2011-12    2.3

2012-13    2.6

2013-14    2.3

2014-15    3.1

2015-16    2.9

2016-17    3.0

2017-18    3.3

2018-19    2.8

2019-20    2.5

2020-21    3.2

 

The first 4 years of his career (averaging around 2.5 ga/60) look much better than the last 7 years (around 3.0 ga/60). But I don't see a major downward trend over the last few years. I would say that his defense looks similar from 2014-2021. I would also add that giving away 3 goals per game on average is not good. However, that also comes down to the team and context. Nothing to me on the offensive and defensive sides says that OEL has had some major regression of late.

 

However, let's all temper our expectations. OEL is joining a new team, will take time to gel and will likely regress as a player over the next 6 years as he gets older.

[J-P]

10 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

I'm really not an expert on stats, so many others could probably answer better.

 

Firstly, ranking defensemen is quite fraught because stats won't tell the whole story. Context is everything. In terms of quality of opposition, quality of their own team, who they are paired with, minutes played/fatigue, whether the player is chasing the game because their team is trailing. These things all come into it.

 

For example, Hughes was -24 right? He spent 49% of his even strength ice time paired with Hamonic, together as a pair they were only -1. When paired with Myers (18% of EV time) they were -14. When paired with Benn (17%) they were +2. This shows that Hughes wasn't actually that bad, except when paired with Myers and they were terrible. But why were they terrible? I would say it was because they were paired together as our best offensive Dmen when chasing a game, taking chances and getting scored on. So context matters. On a better team that is leading more often, those two don't get paired together and they don't need to take chances to score late in the game and their +/- is consequently much better. This is why an offensive Dman on a bad team will generally have a poor +/-. It doesn't always mean they are terrible defensively.

 

Anyway, with regard to OEL and his defensive trends. I would tend to look at even strength goals against (i.e. how many goals were scored against his team), per 60 mins that he was on the ice. This takes out the variable of TOI but it still matters who he played with and who he played against and the state of the game at those times. Anyway here's how it looks:

 

OEL's Even Strength On Ice GA/60:

2010-11    2.4

2011-12    2.3

2012-13    2.6

2013-14    2.3

2014-15    3.1

2015-16    2.9

2016-17    3.0

2017-18    3.3

2018-19    2.8

2019-20    2.5

2020-21    3.2

 

The first 4 years of his career (averaging around 2.5 ga/60) look much better than the last 7 years (around 3.0 ga/60). But I don't see a major downward trend over the last few years. I would say that his defense looks similar from 2014-2021. I would also add that giving away 3 goals per game on average is not good. However, that also comes down to the team and context. Nothing to me on the offensive and defensive sides says that OEL has had some major regression of late.

 

However, let's all temper our expectations. OEL is joining a new team, will take time to gel and will likely regress as a player over the next 6 years as he gets older.

Brilliant insight on +- for offensive players, much needed. Of course, not every bad +- is caused by chasing the game, being out late in games with an open net etc but as you perfectly described, context matters.

[iceman64]

11 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

I'm really not an expert on stats, so many others could probably answer better.

 

Firstly, ranking defensemen is quite fraught because stats won't tell the whole story. Context is everything. In terms of quality of opposition, quality of their own team, who they are paired with, minutes played/fatigue, whether the player is chasing the game because their team is trailing. These things all come into it.

 

For example, Hughes was -24 right? He spent 49% of his even strength ice time paired with Hamonic, together as a pair they were only -1. When paired with Myers (18% of EV time) they were -14. When paired with Benn (17%) they were +2. This shows that Hughes wasn't actually that bad, except when paired with Myers and they were terrible. But why were they terrible? I would say it was because they were paired together as our best offensive Dmen when chasing a game, taking chances and getting scored on. So context matters. On a better team that is leading more often, those two don't get paired together and they don't need to take chances to score late in the game and their +/- is consequently much better. This is why an offensive Dman on a bad team will generally have a poor +/-. It doesn't always mean they are terrible defensively.

 

Anyway, with regard to OEL and his defensive trends. I would tend to look at even strength goals against (i.e. how many goals were scored against his team), per 60 mins that he was on the ice. This takes out the variable of TOI but it still matters who he played with and who he played against and the state of the game at those times. Anyway here's how it looks:

 

OEL's Even Strength On Ice GA/60:

2010-11    2.4

2011-12    2.3

2012-13    2.6

2013-14    2.3

2014-15    3.1

2015-16    2.9

2016-17    3.0

2017-18    3.3

2018-19    2.8

2019-20    2.5

2020-21    3.2

 

The first 4 years of his career (averaging around 2.5 ga/60) look much better than the last 7 years (around 3.0 ga/60). But I don't see a major downward trend over the last few years. I would say that his defense looks similar from 2014-2021. I would also add that giving away 3 goals per game on average is not good. However, that also comes down to the team and context. Nothing to me on the offensive and defensive sides says that OEL has had some major regression of late.

 

However, let's all temper our expectations. OEL is joining a new team, will take time to gel and will likely regress as a player over the next 6 years as he gets older.

Indeed there is more than stats that come into play but trust me when I say that most don't look at more than that, for one, when we do hit the playoffs and we all have seen it in the past, when we have had our typical smaller, quick, skilled teams.. we get SMASHED! Other teams take liberties and our boys have gone down to injury or went invisible because we had no pushback.. fast forward to today, people are still whining about Myers yet we need more than his playing stats from him especially in the playoffs, we need him to be 6'8, yet most people forget that and want him traded. how stupid can you be? unless we have someone north of 6 feet tall and 200 pounds at least, to take his place then we're down a notch and we know what happens without players like him, ask the Sedins about that and then ask how they felt when they had Anson Carter on their line vs another player, they'd say "safer" and they were Carter threw more than a few punches when he had to.

 Notice we haven't had our players run like we used to have happen almost ALL the time? So yes stats can be and are important but they don't show everything...

[-Vintage Canuck-]

Some quotes from Antoine Roussel:

 

“It’s always sad leaving a good group of guys. It’s always sad leaving a good place where you had fun and leaving a place where you had some success,” Roussel told Postmedia last week as he was heading home to Quebec after a quick house-hunting trip to Arizona.

 

“Good for them, they’re going to have a good club. I think they see the potential of the division,” he added about the trade, which saw the Canucks make a big bet on the highly-paid Ekman-Larsson rediscovering some of the form that made him one of the league’s best defencemen, along with Garland, an in-his-prime offensive dynamo.

 

“The first year (2019-20) when I came back, I wasn’t quite ready. I know I’ve said that before but I really I meant that,” Roussel said. “Points-wise I had a decent season (seven goals, six assists in 41 games). But I felt like I was awful.”

 

“Last season my skating was there and my role was better but the puck wasn’t there. I wasn’t producing enough for my salary. But I have no regrets at all with my commitment. My commitment, I felt, was really good even if I wasn’t getting points,” he said.

 

“Fans in Vancouver know their hockey. They love their team and want the team to do well. When I meet a fan it’s special. If I was a fan, like having a casual conversation with one of the players, I put myself in those peoples’ shoes,” he said of his consistent good nature.

 

“We had a couple guys like that, Jay Beagle was like that too. When you meet people, you just want them to feel welcome. I love the fans there. I’d also like to thank the organization for giving me a chance. Also for the players, Kathy and Bobby was exceptional for us. They’ll know who they are.”

 

While sad to leave Vancouver, Roussel said he was excited that a good friend like Beagle was going with him to Arizona.

 

“It makes things more fun, I think Jay coming with me, we bonded really well at the start but even better at the end. Our families got to know each other really well,” he said.

 

https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/antoine-roussel-heads-to-arizona-with-his-head-held-high

[PhillipBlunt]

3 minutes ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

Some quotes from Antoine Roussel:

 

“It’s always sad leaving a good group of guys. It’s always sad leaving a good place where you had fun and leaving a place where you had some success,” Roussel told Postmedia last week as he was heading home to Quebec after a quick house-hunting trip to Arizona.

 

“Good for them, they’re going to have a good club. I think they see the potential of the division,” he added about the trade, which saw the Canucks make a big bet on the highly-paid Ekman-Larsson rediscovering some of the form that made him one of the league’s best defencemen, along with Garland, an in-his-prime offensive dynamo.

 

“The first year (2019-20) when I came back, I wasn’t quite ready. I know I’ve said that before but I really I meant that,” Roussel said. “Points-wise I had a decent season (seven goals, six assists in 41 games). But I felt like I was awful.”

 

“Last season my skating was there and my role was better but the puck wasn’t there. I wasn’t producing enough for my salary. But I have no regrets at all with my commitment. My commitment, I felt, was really good even if I wasn’t getting points,” he said.

 

“Fans in Vancouver know their hockey. They love their team and want the team to do well. When I meet a fan it’s special. If I was a fan, like having a casual conversation with one of the players, I put myself in those peoples’ shoes,” he said of his consistent good nature.

 

“We had a couple guys like that, Jay Beagle was like that too. When you meet people, you just want them to feel welcome. I love the fans there. I’d also like to thank the organization for giving me a chance. Also for the players, Kathy and Bobby was exceptional for us. They’ll know who they are.”

 

While sad to leave Vancouver, Roussel said he was excited that a good friend like Beagle was going with him to Arizona.

 

“It makes things more fun, I think Jay coming with me, we bonded really well at the start but even better at the end. Our families got to know each other really well,” he said.

 

https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/antoine-roussel-heads-to-arizona-with-his-head-held-high

I wish them both well. Good human beings. Weird that Roussel didn't mention that Loui was joining them in Arizona. Maybe he didn't hit it off as well as he did with Beagle. 

[UnkNuk]

Thank you @BigTramFan!  Much appreciated!

 

One technical question:  You write:

 

"For example, Hughes was -24 right? He spent 49% of his even strength ice time paired with Hamonic, together as a pair they were only -1. When paired with Myers (18% of EV time) they were -14. When paired with Benn (17%) they were +2."

 

Those three pairings combined constitute 84% of his even strength ice time.  Each pairing is considerably over the overall -24 that Hughes registered.  Any idea what on earth happened in the remaining 16% of his ice time?   Whatever pairing(s) he had must have been atrocious to drag his overall rating down to -24.  Or am I misunderstanding the math?

 

Thanks.

 

Also, you wote:

 

"However, let's all temper our expectations. OEL is joining a new team, will take time to gel and will likely regress as a player over the next 6 years as he gets older."

 

I agree!  If we can get three of four years out of OEL as a good first line defenceman the trade will have been a success.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by UnkNuk

[PhillipBlunt]

1 minute ago, UnkNuk said:

Thank you @BigTramFan!  Much appreciated!

 

One technical question:  You write:

 

"For example, Hughes was -24 right? He spent 49% of his even strength ice time paired with Hamonic, together as a pair they were only -1. When paired with Myers (18% of EV time) they were -14. When paired with Benn (17%) they were +2."

 

Those three pairings combined constitute 84% of his even strength ice time.  Each pairing is considerable under the overall -24 that Hughes registered.  Any idea what on earth happened in the remaining 16% of his ice time?   Whatever pairing(s) he had must have been atrocious to drag his overall rating down to -24.  Or am I misunderstanding the math?

 

Thanks.

 

Also, you wote:

 

"However, let's all temper our expectations. OEL is joining a new team, will take time to gel and will likely regress as a player over the next 6 years as he gets older."

 

I agree!  If we can get three of four years out of OEL as a good first line defenceman the trade will have been a success.

 

 

 

 

Exactly. Looking forward to see what he brings to the Canucks.