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[Trade] Canucks trade Jay Beagle, Loui Eriksson, Antoine Roussel, 2021 1st-round pick, 2022 2nd-round pick, 2023 7th-round pick to Coyotes for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland


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5 hours ago, J-P said:

Brilliant insight on +- for offensive players, much needed. Of course, not every bad +- is caused by chasing the game, being out late in games with an open net etc but as you perfectly described, context matters.

Are goals scored on an open net included in a player's +/-?

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16 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

I'm really not an expert on stats, so many others could probably answer better.

 

Firstly, ranking defensemen is quite fraught because stats won't tell the whole story. Context is everything. In terms of quality of opposition, quality of their own team, who they are paired with, minutes played/fatigue, whether the player is chasing the game because their team is trailing. These things all come into it.

 

For example, Hughes was -24 right? He spent 49% of his even strength ice time paired with Hamonic, together as a pair they were only -1. When paired with Myers (18% of EV time) they were -14. When paired with Benn (17%) they were +2. This shows that Hughes wasn't actually that bad, except when paired with Myers and they were terrible. But why were they terrible? I would say it was because they were paired together as our best offensive Dmen when chasing a game, taking chances and getting scored on. So context matters. On a better team that is leading more often, those two don't get paired together and they don't need to take chances to score late in the game and their +/- is consequently much better. This is why an offensive Dman on a bad team will generally have a poor +/-. It doesn't always mean they are terrible defensively.

 

Anyway, with regard to OEL and his defensive trends. I would tend to look at even strength goals against (i.e. how many goals were scored against his team), per 60 mins that he was on the ice. This takes out the variable of TOI but it still matters who he played with and who he played against and the state of the game at those times. Anyway here's how it looks:

 

OEL's Even Strength On Ice GA/60:

2010-11    2.4

2011-12    2.3

2012-13    2.6

2013-14    2.3

2014-15    3.1

2015-16    2.9

2016-17    3.0

2017-18    3.3

2018-19    2.8

2019-20    2.5

2020-21    3.2

 

The first 4 years of his career (averaging around 2.5 ga/60) look much better than the last 7 years (around 3.0 ga/60). But I don't see a major downward trend over the last few years. I would say that his defense looks similar from 2014-2021. I would also add that giving away 3 goals per game on average is not good. However, that also comes down to the team and context. Nothing to me on the offensive and defensive sides says that OEL has had some major regression of late.

 

However, let's all temper our expectations. OEL is joining a new team, will take time to gel and will likely regress as a player over the next 6 years as he gets older.

I think your approach to statistical evidence makes a lot of sense. The most important aspect that a lot of analytics heavy types miss is, as you mentioned, context. As well, as you mentioned, and others have as well, analytics isn't as foolproof in hockey as it is in baseball, especially when applied to defense. 

 

Appreciate the post and your take. 

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On 8/1/2021 at 3:11 AM, Westcoastcanucks777 said:

Some dudes hate Garlund already?

It’s the “Benning stench”.  Anything he does “Bring out the ‘hounds, the bloodhounds!”  Just look at the JT Miller trade for verification of their nasal scenting capabilities.

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On 8/3/2021 at 4:11 PM, ba;;isticsports said:

My guess is that +/- only counts when even strength 5 vs 5

I think he means 6 on 6 (five skaters and a goalie) but when a team pulls their goalie for th3 sixth skater in hopes to tie a close game.  And yes, those goals scored into empty nets count as a minus.

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9 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I think he means 6 on 6 (five skaters and a goalie) but when a team pulls their goalie for th3 sixth skater in hopes to tie a close game.  And yes, those goals scored into empty nets count as a minus.

No Alfie that is not correct...

 

The Definition of the Plus/Minus Statistic in Hockey (liveabout.com)

 

When an even-strength or shorthanded goal is scored, every player on the ice for the team scoring the goal is credited with a "plus." Every player on the ice for the team scored against gets a "minus." The difference in these numbers by the end of the game makes up each individual player's plus/minus ranking. A high plus total is taken to mean that a guy is a good defensive player. 

To clarify, an even-strength goal means a goal that is scored when there are the same number of players on each team. A shorthanded goal is a goal scored by the team that has fewer players on the ice than the opposing team due to penalties. 

In calculating the plus/minus statistic, power play goals, penalty shot goals and empty net goals are not taken into account. Power play goals are scored by the team that has more players on the ice than the opposing team due to penalties. A penalty shot, which occurs when a team loses a clear scoring opportunity because of a foul, is a chance for a player to score a goal on the offending team without any opposition except the goaltender. Empty net goals are when a team scores a goal when there is no goaltender present at the net. 

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4 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

No Alfie that is not correct...

 

The Definition of the Plus/Minus Statistic in Hockey (liveabout.com)

 

When an even-strength or shorthanded goal is scored, every player on the ice for the team scoring the goal is credited with a "plus." Every player on the ice for the team scored against gets a "minus." The difference in these numbers by the end of the game makes up each individual player's plus/minus ranking. A high plus total is taken to mean that a guy is a good defensive player. 

To clarify, an even-strength goal means a goal that is scored when there are the same number of players on each team. A shorthanded goal is a goal scored by the team that has fewer players on the ice than the opposing team due to penalties. 

In calculating the plus/minus statistic, power play goals, penalty shot goals and empty net goals are not taken into account. Power play goals are scored by the team that has more players on the ice than the opposing team due to penalties. A penalty shot, which occurs when a team loses a clear scoring opportunity because of a foul, is a chance for a player to score a goal on the offending team without any opposition except the goaltender. Empty net goals are when a team scores a goal when there is no goaltender present at the net. 

If that is the case, then goals scored for the team that pulled the goalie should not count towards +/- either.  Maybe that is what they mean, but if not, it's not fair, since they are still 6 players per side.

 

Not that it matters all that much.

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13 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

No Alfie that is not correct...

 

The Definition of the Plus/Minus Statistic in Hockey (liveabout.com)

 

When an even-strength or shorthanded goal is scored, every player on the ice for the team scoring the goal is credited with a "plus." Every player on the ice for the team scored against gets a "minus." The difference in these numbers by the end of the game makes up each individual player's plus/minus ranking. A high plus total is taken to mean that a guy is a good defensive player. 

To clarify, an even-strength goal means a goal that is scored when there are the same number of players on each team. A shorthanded goal is a goal scored by the team that has fewer players on the ice than the opposing team due to penalties. 

In calculating the plus/minus statistic, power play goals, penalty shot goals and empty net goals are not taken into account. Power play goals are scored by the team that has more players on the ice than the opposing team due to penalties. A penalty shot, which occurs when a team loses a clear scoring opportunity because of a foul, is a chance for a player to score a goal on the offending team without any opposition except the goaltender. Empty net goals are when a team scores a goal when there is no goaltender present at the net. 

It’s still 6 on 6, which is what is actually written in the above.  “To clarify, an even-strength goal means a goal that is scored when there are the same number of players on each team.”. Same number of players.  It’s in this article:

http://a.espncdn.com/nhl/columns/hradek_ej/1474603.html

Offensive players get a minus when an empty-net goal is scored against their team. The defensive players, on the ice to protect a lead, get a plus.”

Has the way plus/minus is tabulated changed?  

 

Edited by Alflives
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22 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

No Alfie that is not correct...

 

The Definition of the Plus/Minus Statistic in Hockey (liveabout.com)

 

When an even-strength or shorthanded goal is scored, every player on the ice for the team scoring the goal is credited with a "plus." Every player on the ice for the team scored against gets a "minus." The difference in these numbers by the end of the game makes up each individual player's plus/minus ranking. A high plus total is taken to mean that a guy is a good defensive player. 

To clarify, an even-strength goal means a goal that is scored when there are the same number of players on each team. A shorthanded goal is a goal scored by the team that has fewer players on the ice than the opposing team due to penalties. 

In calculating the plus/minus statistic, power play goals, penalty shot goals and empty net goals are not taken into account. Power play goals are scored by the team that has more players on the ice than the opposing team due to penalties. A penalty shot, which occurs when a team loses a clear scoring opportunity because of a foul, is a chance for a player to score a goal on the offending team without any opposition except the goaltender. Empty net goals are when a team scores a goal when there is no goaltender present at the net. 

 

Empty net goals count towards +/-.

 

Sutter scored an empty net on 13 February against Calgary in a 3-1 victory.  He wasn't on the ice for another goal for or against.

 

Here the game summary with the list of players on the ice for each goal: 

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20202021/GS020237.HTM

 

Here the event summary where he is credited with a + for his empty net.  Leivo (#27) was on the ice for all 3 goals scored by Vancouver - he is a -3 on the night:

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20202021/ES020237.HTM

 

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2 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Empty net goals count towards +/-.

 

Sutter scored an empty net on 13 February against Calgary in a 3-1 victory.  He wasn't on the ice for another goal for or against.

 

Here the game summary with the list of players on the ice for each goal: 

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20202021/GS020237.HTM

 

Here the event summary where he is credited with a + for his empty net.  Leivo (#27) was on the ice for all 3 goals scored by Vancouver - he is a -3 on the night:

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20202021/ES020237.HTM

 

Feels like Quinn was -10 on empty net goals alone. I wonder how many he was actually on for trying to try to the game 

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57 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Empty net goals count towards +/-.

 

Sutter scored an empty net on 13 February against Calgary in a 3-1 victory.  He wasn't on the ice for another goal for or against.

 

Here the game summary with the list of players on the ice for each goal: 

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20202021/GS020237.HTM

 

Here the event summary where he is credited with a + for his empty net.  Leivo (#27) was on the ice for all 3 goals scored by Vancouver - he is a -3 on the night:

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20202021/ES020237.HTM

 

Thanks mll.  You should contact James Fitzpatrick to update his site...  -_-

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On 8/4/2021 at 11:02 AM, UnkNuk said:

Thank you @BigTramFan!  Much appreciated!

 

One technical question:  You write:

 

"For example, Hughes was -24 right? He spent 49% of his even strength ice time paired with Hamonic, together as a pair they were only -1. When paired with Myers (18% of EV time) they were -14. When paired with Benn (17%) they were +2."

 

Those three pairings combined constitute 84% of his even strength ice time.  Each pairing is considerably over the overall -24 that Hughes registered.  Any idea what on earth happened in the remaining 16% of his ice time?   Whatever pairing(s) he had must have been atrocious to drag his overall rating down to -24.  Or am I misunderstanding the math?

Yep your maths is correct. I don't have the numbers in front of me now for the remaining 16% of his even strength ice time, but there were other pairings that Hughes was on with negative +/- stats. I think Edler-Hughes was -2, Hughes-Chatfield was -3, Hughes by himself (presumably with 4 forwards, again chasing the game) was -2 (sorry if those are not correct I am going from memory). You can find it here: Home - Frozen Tools (dobbersports.com) just select the player and then click on 'Line Combinations'.

 

Also, as already noted by lots of people above this post, Hughes' +/- will be affected by shorthanded goals scored while he was on the PP, I think there were 2 of those last season.

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7 hours ago, Alflives said:

It’s still 6 on 6, which is what is actually written in the above.  “To clarify, an even-strength goal means a goal that is scored when there are the same number of players on each team.”. Same number of players.  It’s in this article:

http://a.espncdn.com/nhl/columns/hradek_ej/1474603.html

Offensive players get a minus when an empty-net goal is scored against their team. The defensive players, on the ice to protect a lead, get a plus.”

Has the way plus/minus is tabulated changed?  

 

I find that surprising.  

 

Seems to me that, when a team has five skaters (plus the goalie) to the other team's six skaters (and no goalie), the former team has the advantage.

 

Without any statistics whatsoever to back me up, it seems to me I've seen a lot more empty net goals scored than I've seen scored by the team with the extra skater.

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3 minutes ago, UnkNuk said:

I find that surprising.  

 

Seems to me that, when a team has five skaters (plus the goalie) to the other team's six skaters (and no goalie), the former team has the advantage.

 

Without any statistics whatsoever to back me up, it seems to me I've seen a lot more empty net goals scored than I've seen scored by the team with the extra skater.

Well of course that’s the case otherwise teams would never play with a goalie in net. It’s just that the odds of scoring a goal increases with 6 skaters vs 5 and a goalie so they do it out of desperation if they are down by one or two. 
 

On top of that if a coach doesn’t pull the goalie down a goal in a game he will take heat for not doing all he could to try to win the game.

 

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2 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

Yep your maths is correct. I don't have the numbers in front of me now for the remaining 16% of his even strength ice time, but there were other pairings that Hughes was on with negative +/- stats. I think Edler-Hughes was -2, Hughes-Chatfield was -3, Hughes by himself (presumably with 4 forwards, again chasing the game) was -2 (sorry if those are not correct I am going from memory). You can find it here: Home - Frozen Tools (dobbersports.com) just select the player and then click on 'Line Combinations'.

 

Also, as already noted by lots of people above this post, Hughes' +/- will be affected by shorthanded goals scored while he was on the PP, I think there were 2 of those last season.

Thanks for the link!

 

I can see how a hockey fan with some time on his hands could have fun with that site.

 

BTW: did you know that Hughes, at 53.57%, had the fourth highest consistency rating among Canuck players with more than 1 game played.

 

Whatever the heck 'consistency' means.             ::D

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2 minutes ago, Aladeen said:

Well of course that’s the case otherwise teams would never play with a goalie in net. It’s just that the odds of scoring a goal increases with 6 skaters vs 5 and a goalie so they do it out of desperation if they are down by one or two. 
 

On top of that if a coach doesn’t pull the goalie down a goal in a game he will take heat for not doing all he could to try to win the game.

 

Good point. ::D

 

 

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Having sat and thought about this after all the initial knee jerk reactions have calmed a bit, I do like this trade. While it may have traded short term pain for a potential longer term problem we got a great player back in Garland (which is the main piece in the trade) and even if OEL stinks it out, we probably could ship him out if we retained as OEL at 6m someone would probably bite on, especially with the going rate for D men

 

while I doubt we could have got Garland and Chychrun it would have been nice if instead of OEL we got Chychrun as while he has decent playmaking skills we already have QH and JR who excel there, but he is more sound defensively than OEL and age fits the core better.  But I’m guessing if we wanted Chychrun we wouldn’t have got Garland

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