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[Trade] Canucks trade Jay Beagle, Loui Eriksson, Antoine Roussel, 2021 1st-round pick, 2022 2nd-round pick, 2023 7th-round pick to Coyotes for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland


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3 hours ago, King Heffy said:

The problem is most of those articles are relying on analytics instead of actually watching him play.  He had AHLers for partners and a coach who made Green look like a Jack Adams candidate.

Actually many of the articles used a very fair mix of statistical comparisons between OEL and himself in prior years. It showed a clear pattern of quality scoring chances spiking when he was out there in recent years. It also showed a significant drop in his ability to defend.

 

It also showed clearly that the problem wasn’t his partners it was him. He was among the worst partner to have on their entire defense and other guys stats were worse with him than with anyone else. The common factor in that was him being their partner so how does he not get any responsibility in that?

 

He himself said his play had declined the last several years. He didn’t blame his teammates or coach. So why would he say that if it wasn’t true?

 

He was overtaken by Chychrun for the harder minutes and yet was a drain on his team defensively with easier minutes. Not sure how that gets explained away as nothing to do with him.

 

I watched him a lot the last 5 years and the eye test certainly supported the many statistical examples of his defensive game deteriorating.

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9 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Actually many of the articles used a very fair mix of statistical comparisons between OEL and himself in prior years. It showed a clear pattern of quality scoring chances spiking when he was out there in recent years. It also showed a significant drop in his ability to defend.

 

It also showed clearly that the problem wasn’t his partners it was him. He was among the worst partner to have on their entire defense and other guys stats were worse with him than with anyone else. The common factor in that was him being their partner so how does he not get any responsibility in that?

 

He himself said his play had declined the last several years. He didn’t blame his teammates or coach. So why would he say that if it wasn’t true?

 

He was overtaken by Chychrun for the harder minutes and yet was a drain on his team defensively with easier minutes. Not sure how that gets explained away as nothing to do with him.

 

I watched him a lot the last 5 years and the eye test certainly supported the many statistical examples of his defensive game deteriorating.

So Arizona is doing much worse without OEL in the lineup. If it was him that was the problem, surely the team would be improving by subtracting him, right?

 

Moreover, Chychrun is doing not so good this year. Surely if he was the one who could rise above the mediocrity, it would be him. After all, OEL was purportedly dragging the team down, as argued by 'analytic' people.:rolleyes:

 

The anti-OEL analysis is seemingly missing a lot of analytical points in their crusade to support a confirmation bias

 

It's funny how OEL miraculously improves in the offseason, to the point that he's somehow not this plug in Arizona :lol: I thought he was aging and in decline???

 

What I see now is that those same people are now shifting the goal posts to talk about "well maybe he is gonna do fine here; it's his contract" lol. This just illustrates how disingenuous the discussion was. This was about nitpicking. I remember reading the media's comments about Poolman, and seeing how they think the signing was garbage. Lol... They don't actually know what they're talking about, and that's why one should watch the player instead of using numbers to judge a player.

 

Moreover, if you believe the comments, the way he reflects.on himself is a sign of professionalism. He has a lot of things to proud of, but he was also in an environment that he didn't really like.

 

This is the problem about analytics; there are things like motivation that just don't get seen by the numbers. Using analytics (lol) to talk about Poolman is a joke.

 

 

 

Edited by Dazzle
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3 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

So Arizona is doing much worse without OEL in the lineup. If it was him that was the problem, surely the team would be improving by subtracting him, right?

 

Moreover, Chychrun is doing not so good this year. Surely if he was the one who could rise above the mediocrity, it would be him. After all, OEL was purportedly dragging the team down, as argued by 'analytic' people.

 

The anti-OEL analysis is seemingly missing a lot of analytical points in their crusade to support a confirmation bbias

 

It's funny how OEL miraculously improves in the offseason, to the point that he's somehow not this plug in Arizona :lol:

 

 

You do realize that hockey players are human beings, right? There could be all kinds of reasons OEL played poorly the last few years.

 

Their team is clearly much worse this year than even last year. It’s so obvious they are tanking it’s not even funny. 
 

Nowhere in my comments did I look down on OEL for his decline in play the last few years. I simply acknowledged the reality that most here won’t. I imagine it would be challenging to stay motivated in that tire fire of an organization.

 

OEL has been good so far in Van. Maybe the change of scenery was needed and his happiness to be out of their has energized him. 
 

That doesn’t change his last few years in Arizona though. To be honest, I am not sure why people need to change the perception of it anyway. It happened. He declined. The Canucks - at least a handful of games in - seem to have benefitted from his value plummeting. So let’s enjoy that win while it lasts rather than try to pretend he wasn’t pretty bad defensively the last few years in Arizona.

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20 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

As usual, people ignore the literally dozens upon dozens of articles over the past year that show in detail exactly how he had declined the past 3 or 4 years. And expect everyone to just believe them with no actual evidence that all that other evidence is wrong.

 

And as usual, people just can’t be objective about a player once he puts on a Canucks jersey.

I didn’t ignore the articles, I have read them and I also referenced them; I just disagree with the storyline and the stats that have been cherry picked by the media in those articles. They don’t show the full picture.
 

And despite what you say I HAVE shown quite a few times on this forum, with clear evidence backing it up, that OEL was not declining in the last few years. That was all done before OEL pulled on a Canucks jersey and hit the ice with our team. Shame you didn’t bother to interact about the facts I presented, nor present any of your own thoughts or facts.

 

But now I really don’t care about your opinion and clearly it isn’t worth much consideration anyway, since you were “willing to bet good money” on something you just made up about someone you don’t even know. Tells me all I need to know about you.

 

One day you might grow up enough to think for yourself and have an adult discussion without resorting to personal insults.

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5 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

I didn’t ignore the articles, I have read them and I also referenced them; I just disagree with the storyline and the stats that have been cherry picked by the media in those articles. They don’t show the full picture.
 

And despite what you say I HAVE shown quite a few times on this forum, with clear evidence backing it up, that OEL was not declining in the last few years. That was all done before OEL pulled on a Canucks jersey and hit the ice with our team. Shame you didn’t bother to interact about the facts I presented, nor present any of your own thoughts or facts.

 

But now I really don’t care about your opinion and clearly it isn’t worth much consideration anyway, since you were “willing to bet good money” on something you just made up about someone you don’t even know. Tells me all I need to know about you.

 

One day you might grow up enough to think for yourself and have an adult discussion without resorting to personal insults.

What personal insult did I make?

 

It’s not hard to see if OEL declined. I mean, look at how effective he was about 4 or 5 years ago then look how effective he was last year.

 

Now go look up the definition of “decline”.

 

People on here are so whiny when anyone points out reality that doesn’t fit with their make believe.

 

How do the wide variety of stats presented in those articles not tell the whole story? Because you don’t believe what they clearly show you?

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Obviously it’s still early, but...
 

Oliver-Ekman Larsson after 6 games is on pace for 27 points. Last season Edler got 8 points. The year before that Edler got 33 points.

 

Conor Garland after 6 games is on pace for 109 points. There really isn’t a comparable player for him.

 

Cost:

 

2021 1st round pick aka Dylan Guenther

2022 2nd round pick TBD

2023 7th round pick TBD

 

Bonus: Shed $12m of dead weight cap space

 

Extra bonus: AZ retains 12% of OEL’s cap hit

 

Forget highway robbery, GM Jim Benning committed multi-freeway robbery.

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On 10/24/2021 at 6:57 AM, StanleyCupOneDay said:

Obviously it’s still early, but...
 

Oliver-Ekman Larsson after 6 games is on pace for 27 points. Last season Edler got 8 points. The year before that Edler got 33 points.

 

Conor Garland after 6 games is on pace for 109 points. There really isn’t a comparable player for him.

 

Cost:

 

2021 1st round pick aka Dylan Guenther

2022 2nd round pick TBD

2023 7th round pick TBD

 

Bonus: Shed $12m of dead weight cap space

 

Extra bonus: AZ retains 12% of OEL’s cap hit

 

Forget highway robbery, GM Jim Benning committed multi-freeway robbery.

Stealing Music Video GIF by Train

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9 minutes ago, Toyotasfan said:

Ericksson has 1 assist and -2

Beagle has 0 points and -5

Roussel has 0 points and -5

 average ice time 8.5 minutes 

Arizona is last in the league.

Well that clinches it then. LE is the best of the three. I knew it!

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I think people are forgetting that this deal was a win for Arizona as well. They get a ton of money freed up next year and a very high pick in this upcoming draft, plus what they got from us with 9th OA and a 2nd. 


This was a really good hockey trade from both sides. 

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23 hours ago, Toyotasfan said:

Ericksson has 1 assist and -2

Beagle has 0 points and -5

Roussel has 0 points and -5

 average ice time 8.5 minutes 

Arizona is last in the league.

But I thought that Loui was a great player that was only being held back by Travis Green and Jim Benning :lol:

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On 10/24/2021 at 9:57 AM, StanleyCupOneDay said:

Obviously it’s still early, but...
 

Oliver-Ekman Larsson after 6 games is on pace for 27 points. Last season Edler got 8 points. The year before that Edler got 33 points.

 

Conor Garland after 6 games is on pace for 109 points. There really isn’t a comparable player for him.

 

Cost:

 

2021 1st round pick aka Dylan Guenther

2022 2nd round pick TBD

2023 7th round pick TBD

 

Bonus: Shed $12m of dead weight cap space

 

Extra bonus: AZ retains 12% of OEL’s cap hit

 

Forget highway robbery, GM Jim Benning committed multi-freeway robbery.

The way I look at the trade:

1st, 2nd, 7th for Conor Garland
$12M in dead cap for OEL's contract of $7.26 x 6 years

 

First Part: I think this is fair value. Garland is a top line winger who is well rounded, still fairly young and on a cost controlled contract. A 9th overall can still be a crapshoot, so for a team looking to win now I like getting a guy like Garland over an older, more expensive player with a higher pedigree with only one or two years left which would cost around the same amount to acquire. I'd take Garland over the majority of 9th overall picks. 

 

Second Part: $12M in dead cap / 6 = $2 million per year over OEL's contract. So in simple terms thinking of it as us signing OEL for a 6 x 5 million (rounded down as the upfront cap savings is going to be worth more, albeit the value would be even higher if we were a contender this year). There are actually not too many comparable free agent signings. Tyler Myers is actually probably the closest. 

 

Myers was coming off of 31 points averaging 20:21 in ice time and OEL was on pace for 48 (adjusted for the same number of games) averaging 20:58. OEL's contract 1 year longer and he is 2 years older. Not sure what to think - comparatively OEL looks alright but I wasn't a big fan of the Myers signing. 

 

 

 



 

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Think it's worth bumping this thread one last time (not really likely, eh?) to show OEL:s impact on the D overall. I realize ARI has long term gains with this trade, but for us to pick up Garland AND a top D that on his own elevates the entire D (allows QH and Myers to play to their strengths etc.) for the price we paid is just a fantastic trade.

 

https://forum.canucks.com/topic/397849-oliver-ekman-larsson-23-d/?do=findComment&comment=16045169

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3rd

On 10/23/2021 at 10:06 AM, Dazzle said:

So Arizona is doing much worse without OEL in the lineup. If it was him that was the problem, surely the team would be improving by subtracting him, right?

 

Moreover, Chychrun is doing not so good this year. Surely if he was the one who could rise above the mediocrity, it would be him. After all, OEL was purportedly dragging the team down, as argued by 'analytic' people.:rolleyes:

 

The anti-OEL analysis is seemingly missing a lot of analytical points in their crusade to support a confirmation bias

 

It's funny how OEL miraculously improves in the offseason, to the point that he's somehow not this plug in Arizona :lol: I thought he was aging and in decline???

 

What I see now is that those same people are now shifting the goal posts to talk about "well maybe he is gonna do fine here; it's his contract" lol. This just illustrates how disingenuous the discussion was. This was about nitpicking. I remember reading the media's comments about Poolman, and seeing how they think the signing was garbage. Lol... They don't actually know what they're talking about, and that's why one should watch the player instead of using numbers to judge a player.

 

Moreover, if you believe the comments, the way he reflects.on himself is a sign of professionalism. He has a lot of things to proud of, but he was also in an environment that he didn't really like.

 

This is the problem about analytics; there are things like motivation that just don't get seen by the numbers. Using analytics (lol) to talk about Poolman is a joke.

 

 

 

People who use analytics as a be all end all in hockey remind me of people who think they can learn to swim by watching a YouTube video thinking theory can transfer to application then abruptly drown or get eaten by a shark lol.

Analytics might work for baseball but until they can quantify chance, chaos etc the data will always be subjective. 

 

There is a thread on HF praising Quinn for his excellent play and a bunch of haters who look only at analytics say he's still horrible 5on5, when in reality the numbers are skewed because our forwards have been poor for the most part offensively. the reality is he's been on the ice for 3 GA 5on5 while being on the ice for 8 of our 14 goals 5on5.

All one has to do is watch to see the truth.

Analytics are garbage and the fact that somebody decides what's considered a high danger shot or all the rest of them that show you something without factoring in the randomness and the million little things that can't be crunched into a number or % is why they can only be taken with a grain of salt.

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