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Oliver Ekman-Larsson | #23 | D


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On 7/30/2021 at 11:54 AM, Smashian Kassian said:

 

I wouldn't even split up the original 1sr unit like that.

 

Boeser Horvat Miller

Hughes Pettersson

 

Garland Dickinson/Sutter Hoglander

OEL Rathbone

 

The thing here is both 'defense' pairs have the #1 QB type, then also the big shot.

 

Not sure who the better 2C option is but you mainly want them to win the draw & play net-front anyways. So the perceived skill level shouldn't matter as much. (So long as they can tip pucks)

 

It's shaping up to be a nice 1A/1B situation, with plenty of versatility. If one unit isn't going we won't have the drop off we've seen before.

 

I don't think I'm too comfortable with Sutter or Dickinson on a power play. I imagine the way you have it written up is more likely, but I feel it does take some talent and hand eye to be that net front guy. Horvat is quite good at it. I'd also like to have OEL on the first unit. He has a deceptively good shot.

 

What I might actually do is move Garland up to the first unit and Brock down to the second. Despite his size, Garland seems to be pretty good in front of the net. A lot of his goals are of the garbageman variety. And having both Boes and Petey on the first unit might be a bit redundant, as they're both triggermen.

 

Miller Petey Garland

OEL Hughes

 

Hoglander Horvat Boeser

Rathbone Myers

 

I think with a setup like this we would essentially have two first units, each one with a mix of players filling the role of playmaker, net presence and trigger man.

 

Regardless of how it shakes down, it's  nice to have options.

 

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10 hours ago, Maddogy said:

The concern with OEL is the foot speed he lost. His hands are still great. We will see where his skating is in training camp. He should also play more physical.

Never seen or heard anything about concern about his foot speed add a source.

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I know #92 Podkolzin 6'2, 210 will add so much to Horvat line..Full 200 foot game and his size...

1. Petey 2. Horvat 3. Miller 4. Boeser 5. Garland 6.Podkolzin 7. Hoglander 8. Dickinson 9. Motte 10 Pearson 11. Sutter 12. MacEwen 13. Highmore

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4 hours ago, vancan2233 said:

 

What do you guy make of this list? where does OEL rate (1-17) base on talent and age to money made. 

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2022/caphit/all/defense?limits=age-28-37,caphit-6750000-20000000

Nice post!

 

Looking at that list OEL is a bit down, for sure. Doesn't mean he's not still a very good player though.

 

If you update the search to only include players with a cap hit up to 7 250 000 (our cap hit for OEL) things definitely look a lot better.

 

Of course, all this depends on which level OEL plays on once here. If he returns to his best he'll be a steal at that cap hit, and if he plays poorly... Ah, let's hope we never have to dwell upon that. 

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7 hours ago, J-P said:

Nice post!

 

Looking at that list OEL is a bit down, for sure. Doesn't mean he's not still a very good player though.

 

If you update the search to only include players with a cap hit up to 7 250 000 (our cap hit for OEL) things definitely look a lot better.

 

Of course, all this depends on which level OEL plays on once here. If he returns to his best he'll be a steal at that cap hit, and if he plays poorly... Ah, let's hope we never have to dwell upon that. 

That IMO is a huge gamble, which impacts the club for a further 6 year. There is no logic to assume OEL will return to his level of play 3 years ago. His fall has been a number of seasons and a straight line graph. While some feel he's capable of picking it up ( and lets hope he does ) the alternative is Ericksson Mk2

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Quote

Of course, all this depends on which level OEL plays on once here. If he returns to his best he'll be a steal at that cap hit, and if he plays poorly... Ah, let's hope we never have to dwell upon that. 

I'd love to see how an actuary would quantify the risk, I wonder if the Canucks ever employ an actuary

  

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On 7/31/2021 at 7:23 PM, 4petesake said:


By his own admission three bad seasons? His point totals going back from last year, adjusting for 82 games - 43, 37, 44, 42, 39, 55, 43, 44, 24, 32, and 11. The guy is so regular he must be eating Colon Blow cereal for breakfast every morning.

 

But back to your question…Patrick Roy had three “down” years of GAA of 2.95, 2.97, & 2.50. After being traded at 31 he “bounced back” with 2.68, 2.32 & 2.39.

 

What’d I win?!!

 

 

5354D2EF-D9A8-43E4-AFF7-539B795FAF45.gif

you win my undying respect for being a civil poster, and a Gold Star for reading and comprehension *

If I'd known this question required prizes I'd have stopped at the dollar store and got you a real fancy gold star

maybe next time

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On 8/2/2021 at 12:14 AM, vancan2233 said:

Never seen or heard anything about concern about his foot speed add a source.

There was a radio interview with a journalist in Arizona last week. Can't find the link on Sportsnet 650 anymore. He said that OEL had trouble defending against rushes and they tried to adjust his pivot and skating to cope but he kept returning to his old habits. 

 

Again, we have to wait till training camp to see where his skating is. Alex Edler got slow and he adjusted his game by being more physical. I hope OEL plays a more physical game as well. 

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23 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

 

So there has been a mixed opinion/view of OEL and how he has been in recent years and how some people say he has been “trending downward” for quite a few years… Now I’m not exactly sure what people’s view of “quite a few years” is that 3 years? 5 years?…Lets look at the last 3 seasons, for arguments sake. Looking at anything beyond 3 years is going back to his certainly better years. We are supposed to be looking at his “declining” years, so I feel the last 3 seasons should be far enough back to paint a picture of OEL

 

So from you are saying  @wallstreetamigo that OEL lost his job to Chychrun Im going to show you how I evaluate a player and then compare the two. From my formula you can look at players and see wether you and other people here agree or disagree.

I do not look at 1 particular stat and say “oh well he really sucks, his CORSI is el terrible as the spaniards would say” I cross reference my advanced stats to give a much better picture of what is actually going on while someone is on the ice. I look at several different stats to determine wether or not this is a trend, bad luck or an overall bad team.

 

 

Zone deployment vs CORSI vs oiSV% vs PDO

plus minus vs expected plus minus 

CF% relief - CF% on ice vs off ice

DPS - Defensive point shares - points created from Defence

 

I just want to state this in an easy to read spot, I understand that +/- is flawed in many ways, however it does tell some truth to what is going on, especially if its a high plus or very bad minus.  I look at it briefly and then compare it to expected +/- to see if it changes for the better or for the worst. depending on how it changes, I can get a bit of a sense of what is happening on the ice.

 

A player who has a high DZS is a guy who is primarily relied upon in defensive situations, i.e. trusted. DZS is an indication of where this player is going to be utilized during games and in critical moments. I personally weigh their OZS to compare with CORSI, because I feel its a bit easier to measure and understand the players effectiveness on ice. ie CORSI being below their OZS = player is losing possession. I then look at their oiSV% and PDO. A player with a higher than 55% DZS is primarily a “shutdown” role. A player with a higher DZS will come at a lower CORSI/oiSV% and PDO as they are starting the shift in their own zone. So a player with a high OZS should have high CORSI, oiSV% and PDO, because they aren’t in their zone as much as the guy with a higher DZS. Naturally a high DZS will come with a lower CORSI 46-49 range…Pucks don’t always make it out, forwards fail to get the puck out or turn it over on the breakout and it leads to opposition with zone control and CORSI being effected. I then look at the oiSV% as it is an indication of wether or not their goalie is seeing the shot, making the save and the rebound is either scooped up or moved to safety. If it is a low oiSV% I then refer to their +/- and their e +/-     if they have a high minus (-40 for example), it gives me an idea that their is a consistent issue on the ice. Then I will look at their e +/- to determine wether it is the goalie or the player(s). If the e +/- is better by a large margin, then I know it is a goaltending issue. If it is the same or worse or the same…. We know it is the player. E+/- is a stat tracked based on shots from a location from around the league and what the result is from a league wide basis. I also look at their DPS which indicates what they are doing on the ice and what it results in from their own end. Does their play lead to a goal for or a goal against? You really need to see the whole picture to understand the player, CORSI alone is not enough, each and every single advanced stat has its blinders on to the stats around it. Onto of it all, you have to really take into consideration, where this player is playing and how much the team is achieving/underachieving. Stats are directly related to environment, its

If you put these stats together you get a much better understanding of the player on the ice.

 

I personally use OZS to compare with CORSI, because I feel its a bit easier to measure and understand the players effectiveness on ice. ie CORSI being below their OZS = player is losing possession.

 

A player with low OZS (<50) but mid CORSI (47+) is a responsible player

A player with high OZS(55+) and mid to low CORSI (<51) has some sort of relation to the on ice loss of possession 

 

For example Tyson Barrie, throughout his career he has had exceptionally high OZS, but his CORSI drops quite considerably when you compare CORSI to OZS. Then you look at someone like Duncan Keith, throughout his career he has had high and low OZS, but his CORSI remains true to his zone starts and it even surpasses his seasons with a low OZS or remains fairly close to it. That is a player who is exceptional. 

 

Here is Duncan Keith for example

NHL Possession Metrics

      Corsi (All) Fenwick (All) PDO (All) Zone Starts (All)
Season Age Team Lg GP TOI CF CA CF% CF% rel FF FA FF% FF% rel oiGF oiSH% oiGA oiSV% PDO oZS% dZS%
Career     NHL 1029 25870.7 25009 23212 51.9 -0.2 18612 17696 51.3 -0.6 1383 9.9 1261 90.6 100.4 51.3 48.7
2007-08 24 CHI NHL 82 2072.9 1493 1790 45.5 -10.3 1179 1374 46.2 -10.3 95 10.3 98 90.8 101.1 42.5 57.5
2008-09 25 CHI NHL 77 1967.1 1759 1612 52.2 -5.2 1382 1264 52.2 -5.1 109 10.1 88 91.0 101.1 42.8 57.2
2009-10 26 CHI NHL 82 2178.8 2237 1756 56.0 -3.5 1706 1282 57.1 -4.1 128 10.2 102 89.2 99.4 50.1 49.9
2010-11 27 CHI NHL 82 2204.6 2257 1898 54.3 2.5 1680 1438 53.9 0.1 121 9.8 107 90.0 99.9 53.1 46.9
2011-12 28 CHI NHL 74 1990.2 1969 1780 52.5 -0.8 1473 1361 52.0 -0.5 114 10.7 99 90.1 100.8 51.8 48.2
2012-13 29 CHI NHL 47 1133.1 1046 935 52.8 -3.5 772 691 52.8 -5.4 65 10.9 43 91.9