Oliver Ekman-Larsson | #23 | D

[vancan2233]

 

What do you guy make of this list? where does OEL rate (1-17) base on talent and age to money made. 

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2022/caphit/all/defense?limits=age-28-37,caphit-6750000-20000000

Edited August 2, 2021 by vancan2233

[48MPHSlapShot]

On 7/30/2021 at 11:54 AM, Smashian Kassian said:

 

I wouldn't even split up the original 1sr unit like that.

 

Boeser Horvat Miller

Hughes Pettersson

 

Garland Dickinson/Sutter Hoglander

OEL Rathbone

 

The thing here is both 'defense' pairs have the #1 QB type, then also the big shot.

 

Not sure who the better 2C option is but you mainly want them to win the draw & play net-front anyways. So the perceived skill level shouldn't matter as much. (So long as they can tip pucks)

 

It's shaping up to be a nice 1A/1B situation, with plenty of versatility. If one unit isn't going we won't have the drop off we've seen before.

 

I don't think I'm too comfortable with Sutter or Dickinson on a power play. I imagine the way you have it written up is more likely, but I feel it does take some talent and hand eye to be that net front guy. Horvat is quite good at it. I'd also like to have OEL on the first unit. He has a deceptively good shot.

 

What I might actually do is move Garland up to the first unit and Brock down to the second. Despite his size, Garland seems to be pretty good in front of the net. A lot of his goals are of the garbageman variety. And having both Boes and Petey on the first unit might be a bit redundant, as they're both triggermen.

 

Miller Petey Garland

OEL Hughes

 

Hoglander Horvat Boeser

Rathbone Myers

 

I think with a setup like this we would essentially have two first units, each one with a mix of players filling the role of playmaker, net presence and trigger man.

 

Regardless of how it shakes down, it's  nice to have options.

 

[vancan2233]

10 hours ago, Maddogy said:

The concern with OEL is the foot speed he lost. His hands are still great. We will see where his skating is in training camp. He should also play more physical.

Never seen or heard anything about concern about his foot speed add a source.

[wildcam]

I know #92 Podkolzin 6'2, 210 will add so much to Horvat line..Full 200 foot game and his size...

1. Petey 2. Horvat 3. Miller 4. Boeser 5. Garland 6.Podkolzin 7. Hoglander 8. Dickinson 9. Motte 10 Pearson 11. Sutter 12. MacEwen 13. Highmore

[J-P]

4 hours ago, vancan2233 said:

 

What do you guy make of this list? where does OEL rate (1-17) base on talent and age to money made. 

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2022/caphit/all/defense?limits=age-28-37,caphit-6750000-20000000

Nice post!

 

Looking at that list OEL is a bit down, for sure. Doesn't mean he's not still a very good player though.

 

If you update the search to only include players with a cap hit up to 7 250 000 (our cap hit for OEL) things definitely look a lot better.

 

Of course, all this depends on which level OEL plays on once here. If he returns to his best he'll be a steal at that cap hit, and if he plays poorly... Ah, let's hope we never have to dwell upon that. 

[Fred65]

7 hours ago, J-P said:

Nice post!

 

Looking at that list OEL is a bit down, for sure. Doesn't mean he's not still a very good player though.

 

If you update the search to only include players with a cap hit up to 7 250 000 (our cap hit for OEL) things definitely look a lot better.

 

Of course, all this depends on which level OEL plays on once here. If he returns to his best he'll be a steal at that cap hit, and if he plays poorly... Ah, let's hope we never have to dwell upon that. 

That IMO is a huge gamble, which impacts the club for a further 6 year. There is no logic to assume OEL will return to his level of play 3 years ago. His fall has been a number of seasons and a straight line graph. While some feel he's capable of picking it up ( and lets hope he does ) the alternative is Ericksson Mk2

[Fred65]

 

Quote

Of course, all this depends on which level OEL plays on once here. If he returns to his best he'll be a steal at that cap hit, and if he plays poorly... Ah, let's hope we never have to dwell upon that. 

I'd love to see how an actuary would quantify the risk, I wonder if the Canucks ever employ an actuary

  

[lmm]

On 7/31/2021 at 7:23 PM, 4petesake said:

By his own admission three bad seasons? His point totals going back from last year, adjusting for 82 games - 43, 37, 44, 42, 39, 55, 43, 44, 24, 32, and 11. The guy is so regular he must be eating Colon Blow cereal for breakfast every morning.

 

But back to your question…Patrick Roy had three “down” years of GAA of 2.95, 2.97, & 2.50. After being traded at 31 he “bounced back” with 2.68, 2.32 & 2.39.

 

What’d I win?!!

 

 

you win my undying respect for being a civil poster, and a Gold Star for reading and comprehension *

If I'd known this question required prizes I'd have stopped at the dollar store and got you a real fancy gold star

maybe next time

[Maddogy]

On 8/2/2021 at 12:14 AM, vancan2233 said:

Never seen or heard anything about concern about his foot speed add a source.

There was a radio interview with a journalist in Arizona last week. Can't find the link on Sportsnet 650 anymore. He said that OEL had trouble defending against rushes and they tried to adjust his pivot and skating to cope but he kept returning to his old habits. 

 

Again, we have to wait till training camp to see where his skating is. Alex Edler got slow and he adjusted his game by being more physical. I hope OEL plays a more physical game as well. 

[knucklehead91]

So there has been a mixed opinion/view of OEL and how he has been in recent years and how some people say he has been “trending downward” for quite a few years… Now I’m not exactly sure what people’s view of “quite a few years” is that 3 years? 5 years?…Lets look at the last 3 seasons, for arguments sake. Looking at anything beyond 3 years is going back to his certainly better years. We are supposed to be looking at his “declining” years, so I feel the last 3 seasons should be far enough back to paint a picture of OEL

 

So from you are saying  @wallstreetamigo that OEL lost his job to Chychrun Im going to show you how I evaluate a player and then compare the two. From my formula you can look at players and see wether you and other people here agree or disagree.

I do not look at 1 particular stat and say “oh well he really sucks, his CORSI is el terrible as the spaniards would say” I cross reference my advanced stats to give a much better picture of what is actually going on while someone is on the ice. I look at several different stats to determine wether or not this is a trend, bad luck or an overall bad team.

 

 

Zone deployment vs CORSI vs oiSV% vs PDO

plus minus vs expected plus minus 

CF% relief - CF% on ice vs off ice

DPS - Defensive point shares - points created from Defence

 

I just want to state this in an easy to read spot, I understand that +/- is flawed in many ways, however it does tell some truth to what is going on, especially if its a high plus or very bad minus.  I look at it briefly and then compare it to expected +/- to see if it changes for the better or for the worst. depending on how it changes, I can get a bit of a sense of what is happening on the ice.

 

A player who has a high DZS is a guy who is primarily relied upon in defensive situations, i.e. trusted. DZS is an indication of where this player is going to be utilized during games and in critical moments. I personally weigh their OZS to compare with CORSI, because I feel its a bit easier to measure and understand the players effectiveness on ice. ie CORSI being below their OZS = player is losing possession. I then look at their oiSV% and PDO. A player with a higher than 55% DZS is primarily a “shutdown” role. A player with a higher DZS will come at a lower CORSI/oiSV% and PDO as they are starting the shift in their own zone. So a player with a high OZS should have high CORSI, oiSV% and PDO, because they aren’t in their zone as much as the guy with a higher DZS. Naturally a high DZS will come with a lower CORSI 46-49 range…Pucks don’t always make it out, forwards fail to get the puck out or turn it over on the breakout and it leads to opposition with zone control and CORSI being effected. I then look at the oiSV% as it is an indication of wether or not their goalie is seeing the shot, making the save and the rebound is either scooped up or moved to safety. If it is a low oiSV% I then refer to their +/- and their e +/-     if they have a high minus (-40 for example), it gives me an idea that their is a consistent issue on the ice. Then I will look at their e +/- to determine wether it is the goalie or the player(s). If the e +/- is better by a large margin, then I know it is a goaltending issue. If it is the same or worse or the same…. We know it is the player. E+/- is a stat tracked based on shots from a location from around the league and what the result is from a league wide basis. I also look at their DPS which indicates what they are doing on the ice and what it results in from their own end. Does their play lead to a goal for or a goal against? You really need to see the whole picture to understand the player, CORSI alone is not enough, each and every single advanced stat has its blinders on to the stats around it. Onto of it all, you have to really take into consideration, where this player is playing and how much the team is achieving/underachieving. Stats are directly related to environment, its

If you put these stats together you get a much better understanding of the player on the ice.

 

I personally use OZS to compare with CORSI, because I feel its a bit easier to measure and understand the players effectiveness on ice. ie CORSI being below their OZS = player is losing possession.

 

A player with low OZS (<50) but mid CORSI (47+) is a responsible player

A player with high OZS(55+) and mid to low CORSI (<51) has some sort of relation to the on ice loss of possession 

 

For example Tyson Barrie, throughout his career he has had exceptionally high OZS, but his CORSI drops quite considerably when you compare CORSI to OZS. Then you look at someone like Duncan Keith, throughout his career he has had high and low OZS, but his CORSI remains true to his zone starts and it even surpasses his seasons with a low OZS or remains fairly close to it. That is a player who is exceptional. 

 

Here is Duncan Keith for example

NHL Possession Metrics

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
Career			NHL	1029	25870.7	25009	23212	51.9	-0.2	18612	17696	51.3	-0.6	1383	9.9	1261	90.6	100.4	51.3	48.7
2007-08	24	CHI	NHL	82	2072.9	1493	1790	45.5	-10.3	1179	1374	46.2	-10.3	95	10.3	98	90.8	101.1	42.5	57.5
2008-09	25	CHI	NHL	77	1967.1	1759	1612	52.2	-5.2	1382	1264	52.2	-5.1	109	10.1	88	91.0	101.1	42.8	57.2
2009-10	26	CHI	NHL	82	2178.8	2237	1756	56.0	-3.5	1706	1282	57.1	-4.1	128	10.2	102	89.2	99.4	50.1	49.9
2010-11	27	CHI	NHL	82	2204.6	2257	1898	54.3	2.5	1680	1438	53.9	0.1	121	9.8	107	90.0	99.9	53.1	46.9
2011-12	28	CHI	NHL	74	1990.2	1969	1780	52.5	-0.8	1473	1361	52.0	-0.5	114	10.7	99	90.1	100.8	51.8	48.2
2012-13	29	CHI	NHL	47	1133.1	1046	935	52.8	-3.5	772	691	52.8	-5.4	65	10.9	43	91.9	102.8	55.2	44.8
2013-14	30	CHI	NHL	79	1947.3	2134	1618	56.9	0.5	1572	1231	56.1	-0.9	126	10.7	86	90.7	101.4	58.6	41.4
2014-15	31	CHI	NHL	80	2043.8	2269	1728	56.8	4.7	1642	1347	54.9	3.5	105	8.6	83	91.8	100.4	55.7	44.3
2015-16	32	CHI	NHL	67	1690.8	1592	1526	51.1	1.7	1179	1146	50.7	1.9	94	11.0	75	91.2	102.2	45.5	54.5
2016-17	33	CHI	NHL	80	2049.3	1958	1905	50.7	1.1	1426	1415	50.2	1.2	112	10.3	92	91.4	101.7	53.2	46.8
2017-18	34	CHI	NHL	82	1953.9	2109	1961	51.8	-1.0	1491	1497	49.9	-1.4	74	6.7	117	89.6	96.3	55.5	44.5
2018-19	35	CHI	NHL	82	1887.4	1774	1916	48.1	-2.2	1326	1499	46.9	-2.2	105	10.2	114	89.8	99.9	53.2	46.8
2019-20	36	CHI	NHL	61	1487.5	1383	1532	47.4	-2.7	1016	1167	46.5	-3.3	73	9.4	74	91.9	101.3	49.1	50.9
2020-21	37	CHI	NHL	54	1264.1	1029	1255	45.1	-3.3	768	984	43.8	-4.0	62	9.9	83	89.0	98.9	48.6	51.4

 

Duncan Keith's career OZS is lower than his career CORSI 51.9>51.3 meaning no matter where he is on the ice has a higher possession number than where he started. This is a perfect example of how CORSI cannot be looked at all on its own, you need to factor in where the player started etc. Look at Keith's years from 2007-16. Only 2 seasons where his OZS was higher than his CORSI.

 

 

 

Now look at Tyson Barrie

NHL Possession Metrics

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
8 yrs		COL	NHL	484	10539.6	10737	9240	53.7	10.4	7984	6998	53.3	9.4	583	10.0	478	90.6	100.6	63.9	36.1
Career			NHL	610	13269.2	13843	11541	54.5	10.5	10313	8820	53.9	9.3	769	10.2	606	90.6	100.8	64.3	35.7
2011-12	20	COL	NHL	10	176.5	200	146	57.8	9.4	157	104	60.2	11.3	7	5.6	7	91.4	97.0	76.3	23.7
2012-13	21	COL	NHL	32	690.6	656	627	51.1	4.2	495	482	50.7	2.7	24	7.0	31	91.1	98.1	54.6	45.4
2013-14	22	COL	NHL	64	1186.7	1212	998	54.8	9.1	907	757	54.5	8.4	78	11.8	41	92.5	104.3	63.8	36.2
2014-15	23	COL	NHL	80	1709.9	1646	1548	51.5	11.3	1213	1117	52.1	11.0	104	11.4	75	90.5	101.9	58.5	41.5
2015-16	24	COL	NHL	78	1809.0	1742	1704	50.6	9.0	1296	1306	49.8	6.1	96	10.1	88	90.6	100.7	58.4	41.6
2016-17	25	COL	NHL	74	1724.6	1689	1421	54.3	9.3	1265	1133	52.8	8.5	64	7.1	87	89.9	97.0	63.3	36.7
2017-18	26	COL	NHL	68	1543.4	1623	1411	53.5	10.4	1180	1073	52.4	9.4	100	11.8	78	90.0	101.8	69.5	30.5
2018-19	27	COL	NHL	78	1698.9	1969	1385	58.7	14.0	1471	1026	58.9	13.6	110	10.1	71	90.7	100.7	71.7	28.3
2019-20	28	TOR	NHL	70	1531.4	1750	1315	57.1	8.8	1296	1043	55.4	7.0	92	9.9	75	90.1	100.0	64.0	36.0
2020-21	29	EDM	NHL	56	1198.2	1356	986	57.9	14.2	1033	779	57.0	12.4	94	12.3	53	90.8	103.0	68.0	32.0

 

 

Tyson Barrie has an average of 64.3 OZS with a CORSI of 54.5...... That is ringing the alarm bells for me when it comes to possession. Barrie is kept well away from his own end and when he gets into his own end.... its not a pretty sight.

 

 

 

NHL Possession Metrics

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

 

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
7 yrs		ARI	NHL	511	12204.1	12123	10898	52.7	7.8	8999	8525	51.4	6.5	591	9.2	604	90.0	99.2	54.0	46.0
4 yrs		PHX	NHL	258	5810.2	5433	4986	52.1	1.8	4013	3837	51.1	1.0	257	9.1	231	91.5	100.6	50.5	49.5
Career			NHL	769	18014.3	17556	15884	52.5	6.5	13012	12362	51.3	5.3	848	9.1	835	90.5	99.6	52.9	47.1
2010-11	19	PHX	NHL	48	721.7	706	604	53.9	3.2	523	483	52.0	2.8	32	8.8	29	91.6	100.3	50.9	49.1
2011-12	20	PHX	NHL	82	1813.0	1675	1548	52.0	2.6	1230	1220	50.2	1.2	73	8.6	71	91.8	100.4	49.5	50.5
2012-13	21	PHX	NHL	48	1204.6	1123	1067	51.3	0.5	828	804	50.7	-1.5	54	9.2	52	90.9	100.1	47.7	52.3
2013-14	22	PHX	NHL	80	2070.9	1929	1767	52.2	1.4	1432	1330	51.8	0.9	98	9.5	79	91.7	101.1	52.6	47.4
2014-15	23	ARI	NHL	82	2067.5	2082	1879	52.6	8.0	1523	1430	51.6	7.2	90	8.3	106	89.9	98.1	50.8	49.2
2015-16	24	ARI	NHL	75	1853.6	2008	1459	57.9	17.2	1474	1136	56.5	16.4	118	11.1	90	88.6	99.7	60.5	39.5
2016-17	25	ARI	NHL	79	1944.6	1797	1875	48.9	6.3	1364	1458	48.3	6.2	87	9.1	98	90.3	99.5	49.5	50.5
2017-18	26	ARI	NHL	82	1940.0	2051	1709	54.5	9.4	1490	1343	52.6	8.4	92	8.7	106	88.6	97.2	51.9	48.1
2018-19	27	ARI	NHL	81	1915.1	2008	1628	55.2	9.6	1480	1269	53.8	6.7	86	8.3	88	90.3	98.6	62.1	37.9
2019-20	28	ARI	NHL	66	1518.6	1391	1503	48.1	-0.5	1077	1212	47.1	-1.8	73	9.0	64	92.7	101.7	50.5	49.5
2020-21	29	ARI	NHL	46	964.8	786	845	48.2	0.3	591	677	46.6	-1.9	45	10.5	52	89.5	100.0	50.1	49.9

 

So first off I will walk you through how I personally assess this player for the 2020-21 Season.

1) OZS - 50.1 - So far he's utilized in both ends of the ice equally in all situations - thats a good sign. Is looked upon for offence and relied upon for defence evenly.

2) CORSI - 48.2 - So far he's nearly matching his OZS with possession, so far it looks okay, its a minor dip from his OZS... So far im not too concerned

3) oiSV% - .895oiSV% - ookay so now I begin to wonder wether or not he is good in his own zone, I feel slight concerns at this point

4) PDO - 100.0 (PDO is oiSV% + oiSH%) - at this point in 2020-21 OEL is struggling in his own zone, but offensively he is making up for that with a 10.5 shooting %

still I am uncertain about his defensive zone play, however I have a neutral feeling towards the player, seeing that he CAN contribute offensively at least.

5) +/- (-17) At this point I can see that OEL is consistently on the ice for quite a few goals, regardless of how +/- works out, there is a fairly telling sign when a player is that deep in the dashes. Something is going on. 

6) e+/- (-10.9) At this point I see that not all goals on the ice are attributed to OEL's play, his "+/-" should have been better. At this point I see him trending upwards once again in my analysis. 

7) DPS - 1.1 - his DPS was 9th on the team and one of the lower on D - he is definitely on a down year when contributing from his own zone and the play resulting in a point. However this is just 1 season and its a COVID riddled Season.

8) oiGF to oiGA - 45oiGF to 52oiGA. At this point he seems to be just a little below even when it comes to offensive contributions and defensive zone letdowns. 

 

- After I have looked at all these stats of this one single player, I then look to the rest of the guys on the back end to see who was the biggest detriment on the ice.

Now it has been made public knowledge that OEL has been going through some personal issues with the health of a family member the past few seasons, so I try to keep that in mind when I am investigating a player.

 

 

NHL Possession Metrics

Jakob Chychrun

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
Career			NHL	290	5941.9	5675	5499	50.8	4.4	4250	4086	51.0	5.3	273	9.0	255	91.0	100.1	55.6	44.4
2016-17	18	ARI	NHL	68	1133.3	946	1203	44.0	-1.5	714	925	43.6	-1.6	39	7.8	57	90.9	98.7	44.8	55.2
2017-18	19	ARI	NHL	50	1012.0	1011	965	51.2	3.5	731	727	50.1	4.3	44	8.7	35	92.9	101.7	60.4	39.6
2018-19	20	ARI	NHL	53	1073.5	1145	949	54.7	8.4	869	680	56.1	9.7	46	7.5	40	91.4	98.8	61.4	38.6
2019-20	21	ARI	NHL	63	1413.4	1345	1286	51.1	4.1	1020	944	51.9	5.5	71	9.5	60	91.0	100.5	50.9	49.1
2020-21	22	ARI	NHL	56	1309.7	1228	1096	52.8	7.3	916	810	53.1	8.1	73	11.3	63	89.4	100.6	61.0	39.0

 

 

So in 2020-21 Chychrun had a 61% OZS, 52.8 CF%, .894oiSV%, 100.6 PDO, his +/- was -6 and his e+/- was -8.9, DPS 2.9 his oiGF and oiGA were 73oiGF to 63oiGA

OEL and Chychrun did not have the same amount of GP, however their oiGA is nearly identical when you average it out. OEL is on the ice for 1.13GA/G and Chychrun is on the ice for 1.125

 

With zone starts far away from his own end, Chychrun is on the ice for the same amount of goals as OEL who starts 50/50.  Not saying that Chychrun sucks or anything, but OEL is more responsible from my point of view and how the stats break down. 

 

Thats just last year in a crapshoot of a season.

 

2019-20

Player	GP	OZS	CORSI	oiSV%	PDO	plus minus	E+/-	DPS	oiGF	oiGA
OEL	66	50.5	48.1	0.927	101.7	-3	-6.2	3.6	73	64
Chychrun	63	50.9	51.1	0.91	100.5	4	1.7	3.8	71	60

Nearly identical stats between the two players in 2019-20 So far I wouldnt say that OEL has "lost his job" to Chychrun.

 

 

2018-19

Player	GP	OZS	CORSI	oiSV%	PDO	plus minus	E+/-	DPS	oiGF	oiGA
OEL	81	62.1	55.2	0.903	98.6	-16	-5	4.2	86	88
Chychrun	53	61.4	54.7	0.914	98.8	-12	3.3	2.1	46	40

 

 

 

Thats 3 seasons where OEL is "declining" and Chychrun is on the ascending, yet their overall stats are pretty damn close top to bottom. I wouldnt go as far as saying OEL "lost his job" to Chychrun, its moreso that they found a replacement. 

 

Oh I forgot to mention that OEL finished 11th in Norris voting in 2018-19 and he's been nominated 5 times throughout his career. I wouldn't go as far as saying he has been declining for "years" he might have had a down season on a garbage team, but the guy is 30 and still has quite a few good years left in him.

 

 

And just for sh*ts and giggles..... using my formula, Look at Myers and Edler....

 

NHL Possession Metrics

 Tyler Myers

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
6 yrs		BUF	NHL	365	8324.3	7020	8147	46.3	-0.8	5341	6220	46.2	-1.0	360	9.1	399	91.1	100.2	46.6	53.4
2 yrs		VAN	NHL	123	2676.9	2301	2705	46.0	-3.0	1731	2059	45.7	-3.8	114	9.0	141	90.7	99.6	46.1	53.9
5 yrs		WPG	NHL	270	5852.0	5326	5663	48.5	-2.3	3942	4311	47.8	-3.2	282	9.8	270	91.4	101.1	49.2	50.8
Career			NHL	758	16853.2	14647	16515	47.0	-2.2	11014	12590	46.7	-2.8	756	9.3	810	91.1	100.4	47.4	52.6
2009-10	19	BUF	NHL	82	1924.0	1692	1820	48.2	-4.5	1313	1426	47.9	-4.2	101	10.4	87	91.6	102.0	48.1	51.9
2010-11	20	BUF	NHL	80	1796.6	1742	1580	52.4	3.9	1312	1236	51.5	1.5	96	9.8	92	89.3	99.1	51.1	48.9
2011-12	21	BUF	NHL	55	1237.0	1098	1233	47.1	-7.0	813	952	46.1	-8.2	55	9.5	51	92.7	102.2	51.7	48.3
2012-13	22	BUF	NHL	39	831.2	661	820	44.6	-3.8	507	615	45.2	-1.7	27	7.0	47	89.5	96.4	49.6	50.4
2013-14	23	BUF	NHL	62	1357.7	1065	1347	44.2	0.1	800	1045	43.4	-0.7	42	7.2	67	91.3	98.4	42.3	57.7
2014-15	24	TOT	NHL	71	1749.4	1260	1828	40.8	-1.9	968	1304	42.6	0.2	73	10.2	78	91.4	101.6	42.0	58.0
2014-15	24	BUF	NHL	47	1177.8	762	1347	36.1	-1.9	596	946	38.7	0.6	39	8.8	55	91.6	100.4	36.4	63.6
2014-15	24	WPG	NHL	24	571.6	498	481	50.9	-1.6	372	358	51.0	-0.7	34	12.3	23	90.9	103.2	54.0	46.0
2015-16	25	WPG	NHL	73	1650.4	1513	1447	51.1	0.2	1115	1109	50.1	-0.7	65	7.9	72	91.1	99.1	50.9	49.1
2016-17	26	WPG	NHL	11	244.3	195	245	44.3	-6.1	142	184	43.6	-5.2	11	11.0	7	94.4	105.4	41.7	58.3
2017-18	27	WPG	NHL	82	1757.0	1648	1780	48.1	-2.8	1216	1343	47.5	-4.1	88	9.8	80	91.7	101.6	45.9	54.1
2018-19	28	WPG	NHL	80	1628.8	1472	1710	46.3	-4.0	1097	1317	45.4	-5.1	84	10.5	88	90.9	101.4	50.4	49.6
2019-20	29	VAN	NHL	68	1462.5	1364	1463	48.2	-0.7	1029	1088	48.6	-1.1	65	8.6	75	90.7	99.3	52.5	47.5
2020-21	30	VAN	NHL	55	1214.4	937	1242	43.0	-6.0	702	971	42.0	-7.4	49	9.5	66	90.6	100.1	38.4	61.6

 

 

NHL Possession Metrics

 Alex Edler

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
Career			NHL	903	20925.6	19914	18920	51.3	1.7	14983	14065	51.6	2.5	1001	9.3	977	90.5	99.8	50.9	49.1
2007-08	21	VAN	NHL	75	1598.2	1425	1241	53.5	4.0	1125	954	54.1	3.8	72	8.8	57	91.7	100.6	55.4	44.6
2008-09	22	VAN	NHL	80	1674.0	1566	1378	53.2	4.0	1173	1061	52.5	3.3	93	11.0	64	91.4	102.5	57.9	42.1
2009-10	23	VAN	NHL	76	1721.3	1729	1489	53.7	2.3	1318	1123	54.0	2.5	90	9.6	76	90.8	100.4	55.9	44.1
2010-11	24	VAN	NHL	51	1238.9	1408	1080	56.6	6.2	1068	822	56.5	7.4	81	10.9	48	92.0	103.0	62.5	37.5
2011-12	25	VAN	NHL	82	1956.9	2073	1625	56.1	3.1	1510	1238	54.9	2.9	103	9.7	80	91.7	101.3	60.6	39.4
2012-13	26	VAN	NHL	45	1073.2	1039	844	55.2	2.9	773	648	54.4	4.1	46	8.5	44	91.2	99.7	59.9	40.1
2013-14	27	VAN	NHL	63	1467.1	1578	1301	54.8	0.8	1131	953	54.3	0.7	39	5.0	75	89.0	94.0	55.4	44.6
2014-15	28	VAN	NHL	74	1774.5	1665	1517	52.3	4.8	1252	1080	53.7	5.6	92	10.2	67	91.3	101.5	48.8	51.2
2015-16	29	VAN	NHL	52	1271.5	1122	1135	49.7	3.0	863	821	51.2	5.1	57	9.0	66	89.0	98.0	45.5	54.5
2016-17	30	VAN	NHL	68	1653.3	1460	1601	47.7	-1.6	1076	1243	46.4	-1.8	56	7.1	91	90.2	97.3	46.8	53.2
2017-18	31	VAN	NHL	70	1699.4	1599	1718	48.2	0.7	1197	1254	48.8	1.9	81	9.3	99	88.9	98.2	47.4	52.6
2018-19	32	VAN	NHL	56	1375.9	1246	1307	48.8	2.1	949	907	51.1	5.2	74	11.0	61	90.5	101.5	44.1	55.9
2019-20	33	VAN	NHL	59	1334.4	1226	1498	45.0	-6.7	923	1079	46.1	-5.9	76	11.1	78	90.4	101.5	39.1	60.9
2020-21	34	VAN	NHL	52	1087.1	778	1186	39.6	-10.9	625	882	41.5	-7.8	41	8.6	71	88.7	97.3	26.0	74.0

 

 

Luckily OEL can fill Eddie's shoes, but Myers is pretty under appreciated by a lot of fans.

 

 

 

 

[Dazzle]

23 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

 

So there has been a mixed opinion/view of OEL and how he has been in recent years and how some people say he has been “trending downward” for quite a few years… Now I’m not exactly sure what people’s view of “quite a few years” is that 3 years? 5 years?…Lets look at the last 3 seasons, for arguments sake. Looking at anything beyond 3 years is going back to his certainly better years. We are supposed to be looking at his “declining” years, so I feel the last 3 seasons should be far enough back to paint a picture of OEL

 

So from you are saying  @wallstreetamigo that OEL lost his job to Chychrun Im going to show you how I evaluate a player and then compare the two. From my formula you can look at players and see wether you and other people here agree or disagree.

I do not look at 1 particular stat and say “oh well he really sucks, his CORSI is el terrible as the spaniards would say” I cross reference my advanced stats to give a much better picture of what is actually going on while someone is on the ice. I look at several different stats to determine wether or not this is a trend, bad luck or an overall bad team.

 

 

Zone deployment vs CORSI vs oiSV% vs PDO

plus minus vs expected plus minus 

CF% relief - CF% on ice vs off ice

DPS - Defensive point shares - points created from Defence

 

I just want to state this in an easy to read spot, I understand that +/- is flawed in many ways, however it does tell some truth to what is going on, especially if its a high plus or very bad minus.  I look at it briefly and then compare it to expected +/- to see if it changes for the better or for the worst. depending on how it changes, I can get a bit of a sense of what is happening on the ice.

 

A player who has a high DZS is a guy who is primarily relied upon in defensive situations, i.e. trusted. DZS is an indication of where this player is going to be utilized during games and in critical moments. I personally weigh their OZS to compare with CORSI, because I feel its a bit easier to measure and understand the players effectiveness on ice. ie CORSI being below their OZS = player is losing possession. I then look at their oiSV% and PDO. A player with a higher than 55% DZS is primarily a “shutdown” role. A player with a higher DZS will come at a lower CORSI/oiSV% and PDO as they are starting the shift in their own zone. So a player with a high OZS should have high CORSI, oiSV% and PDO, because they aren’t in their zone as much as the guy with a higher DZS. Naturally a high DZS will come with a lower CORSI 46-49 range…Pucks don’t always make it out, forwards fail to get the puck out or turn it over on the breakout and it leads to opposition with zone control and CORSI being effected. I then look at the oiSV% as it is an indication of wether or not their goalie is seeing the shot, making the save and the rebound is either scooped up or moved to safety. If it is a low oiSV% I then refer to their +/- and their e +/-     if they have a high minus (-40 for example), it gives me an idea that their is a consistent issue on the ice. Then I will look at their e +/- to determine wether it is the goalie or the player(s). If the e +/- is better by a large margin, then I know it is a goaltending issue. If it is the same or worse or the same…. We know it is the player. E+/- is a stat tracked based on shots from a location from around the league and what the result is from a league wide basis. I also look at their DPS which indicates what they are doing on the ice and what it results in from their own end. Does their play lead to a goal for or a goal against? You really need to see the whole picture to understand the player, CORSI alone is not enough, each and every single advanced stat has its blinders on to the stats around it. Onto of it all, you have to really take into consideration, where this player is playing and how much the team is achieving/underachieving. Stats are directly related to environment, its

If you put these stats together you get a much better understanding of the player on the ice.

 

I personally use OZS to compare with CORSI, because I feel its a bit easier to measure and understand the players effectiveness on ice. ie CORSI being below their OZS = player is losing possession.

 

A player with low OZS (<50) but mid CORSI (47+) is a responsible player

A player with high OZS(55+) and mid to low CORSI (<51) has some sort of relation to the on ice loss of possession 

 

For example Tyson Barrie, throughout his career he has had exceptionally high OZS, but his CORSI drops quite considerably when you compare CORSI to OZS. Then you look at someone like Duncan Keith, throughout his career he has had high and low OZS, but his CORSI remains true to his zone starts and it even surpasses his seasons with a low OZS or remains fairly close to it. That is a player who is exceptional. 

 

Here is Duncan Keith for example

NHL Possession Metrics

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
Career			NHL	1029	25870.7	25009	23212	51.9	-0.2	18612	17696	51.3	-0.6	1383	9.9	1261	90.6	100.4	51.3	48.7
2007-08	24	CHI	NHL	82	2072.9	1493	1790	45.5	-10.3	1179	1374	46.2	-10.3	95	10.3	98	90.8	101.1	42.5	57.5
2008-09	25	CHI	NHL	77	1967.1	1759	1612	52.2	-5.2	1382	1264	52.2	-5.1	109	10.1	88	91.0	101.1	42.8	57.2
2009-10	26	CHI	NHL	82	2178.8	2237	1756	56.0	-3.5	1706	1282	57.1	-4.1	128	10.2	102	89.2	99.4	50.1	49.9
2010-11	27	CHI	NHL	82	2204.6	2257	1898	54.3	2.5	1680	1438	53.9	0.1	121	9.8	107	90.0	99.9	53.1	46.9
2011-12	28	CHI	NHL	74	1990.2	1969	1780	52.5	-0.8	1473	1361	52.0	-0.5	114	10.7	99	90.1	100.8	51.8	48.2
2012-13	29	CHI	NHL	47	1133.1	1046	935	52.8	-3.5	772	691	52.8	-5.4	65	10.9	43	91.9	102.8	55.2	44.8
2013-14	30	CHI	NHL	79	1947.3	2134	1618	56.9	0.5	1572	1231	56.1	-0.9	126	10.7	86	90.7	101.4	58.6	41.4
2014-15	31	CHI	NHL	80	2043.8	2269	1728	56.8	4.7	1642	1347	54.9	3.5	105	8.6	83	91.8	100.4	55.7	44.3
2015-16	32	CHI	NHL	67	1690.8	1592	1526	51.1	1.7	1179	1146	50.7	1.9	94	11.0	75	91.2	102.2	45.5	54.5
2016-17	33	CHI	NHL	80	2049.3	1958	1905	50.7	1.1	1426	1415	50.2	1.2	112	10.3	92	91.4	101.7	53.2	46.8
2017-18	34	CHI	NHL	82	1953.9	2109	1961	51.8	-1.0	1491	1497	49.9	-1.4	74	6.7	117	89.6	96.3	55.5	44.5
2018-19	35	CHI	NHL	82	1887.4	1774	1916	48.1	-2.2	1326	1499	46.9	-2.2	105	10.2	114	89.8	99.9	53.2	46.8
2019-20	36	CHI	NHL	61	1487.5	1383	1532	47.4	-2.7	1016	1167	46.5	-3.3	73	9.4	74	91.9	101.3	49.1	50.9
2020-21	37	CHI	NHL	54	1264.1	1029	1255	45.1	-3.3	768	984	43.8	-4.0	62	9.9	83	89.0	98.9	48.6	51.4

 

Duncan Keith's career OZS is lower than his career CORSI 51.9>51.3 meaning no matter where he is on the ice has a higher possession number than where he started. This is a perfect example of how CORSI cannot be looked at all on its own, you need to factor in where the player started etc. Look at Keith's years from 2007-16. Only 2 seasons where his OZS was higher than his CORSI.

 

 

 

Now look at Tyson Barrie

NHL Possession Metrics

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
8 yrs		COL	NHL	484	10539.6	10737	9240	53.7	10.4	7984	6998	53.3	9.4	583	10.0	478	90.6	100.6	63.9	36.1
Career			NHL	610	13269.2	13843	11541	54.5	10.5	10313	8820	53.9	9.3	769	10.2	606	90.6	100.8	64.3	35.7
2011-12	20	COL	NHL	10	176.5	200	146	57.8	9.4	157	104	60.2	11.3	7	5.6	7	91.4	97.0	76.3	23.7
2012-13	21	COL	NHL	32	690.6	656	627	51.1	4.2	495	482	50.7	2.7	24	7.0	31	91.1	98.1	54.6	45.4
2013-14	22	COL	NHL	64	1186.7	1212	998	54.8	9.1	907	757	54.5	8.4	78	11.8	41	92.5	104.3	63.8	36.2
2014-15	23	COL	NHL	80	1709.9	1646	1548	51.5	11.3	1213	1117	52.1	11.0	104	11.4	75	90.5	101.9	58.5	41.5
2015-16	24	COL	NHL	78	1809.0	1742	1704	50.6	9.0	1296	1306	49.8	6.1	96	10.1	88	90.6	100.7	58.4	41.6
2016-17	25	COL	NHL	74	1724.6	1689	1421	54.3	9.3	1265	1133	52.8	8.5	64	7.1	87	89.9	97.0	63.3	36.7
2017-18	26	COL	NHL	68	1543.4	1623	1411	53.5	10.4	1180	1073	52.4	9.4	100	11.8	78	90.0	101.8	69.5	30.5
2018-19	27	COL	NHL	78	1698.9	1969	1385	58.7	14.0	1471	1026	58.9	13.6	110	10.1	71	90.7	100.7	71.7	28.3
2019-20	28	TOR	NHL	70	1531.4	1750	1315	57.1	8.8	1296	1043	55.4	7.0	92	9.9	75	90.1	100.0	64.0	36.0
2020-21	29	EDM	NHL	56	1198.2	1356	986	57.9	14.2	1033	779	57.0	12.4	94	12.3	53	90.8	103.0	68.0	32.0

 

 

Tyson Barrie has an average of 64.3 OZS with a CORSI of 54.5...... That is ringing the alarm bells for me when it comes to possession. Barrie is kept well away from his own end and when he gets into his own end.... its not a pretty sight.

 

 

 

 

NHL Possession Metrics

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

 

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
7 yrs		ARI	NHL	511	12204.1	12123	10898	52.7	7.8	8999	8525	51.4	6.5	591	9.2	604	90.0	99.2	54.0	46.0
4 yrs		PHX	NHL	258	5810.2	5433	4986	52.1	1.8	4013	3837	51.1	1.0	257	9.1	231	91.5	100.6	50.5	49.5
Career			NHL	769	18014.3	17556	15884	52.5	6.5	13012	12362	51.3	5.3	848	9.1	835	90.5	99.6	52.9	47.1
2010-11	19	PHX	NHL	48	721.7	706	604	53.9	3.2	523	483	52.0	2.8	32	8.8	29	91.6	100.3	50.9	49.1
2011-12	20	PHX	NHL	82	1813.0	1675	1548	52.0	2.6	1230	1220	50.2	1.2	73	8.6	71	91.8	100.4	49.5	50.5
2012-13	21	PHX	NHL	48	1204.6	1123	1067	51.3	0.5	828	804	50.7	-1.5	54	9.2	52	90.9	100.1	47.7	52.3
2013-14	22	PHX	NHL	80	2070.9	1929	1767	52.2	1.4	1432	1330	51.8	0.9	98	9.5	79	91.7	101.1	52.6	47.4
2014-15	23	ARI	NHL	82	2067.5	2082	1879	52.6	8.0	1523	1430	51.6	7.2	90	8.3	106	89.9	98.1	50.8	49.2
2015-16	24	ARI	NHL	75	1853.6	2008	1459	57.9	17.2	1474	1136	56.5	16.4	118	11.1	90	88.6	99.7	60.5	39.5
2016-17	25	ARI	NHL	79	1944.6	1797	1875	48.9	6.3	1364	1458	48.3	6.2	87	9.1	98	90.3	99.5	49.5	50.5
2017-18	26	ARI	NHL	82	1940.0	2051	1709	54.5	9.4	1490	1343	52.6	8.4	92	8.7	106	88.6	97.2	51.9	48.1
2018-19	27	ARI	NHL	81	1915.1	2008	1628	55.2	9.6	1480	1269	53.8	6.7	86	8.3	88	90.3	98.6	62.1	37.9
2019-20	28	ARI	NHL	66	1518.6	1391	1503	48.1	-0.5	1077	1212	47.1	-1.8	73	9.0	64	92.7	101.7	50.5	49.5
2020-21	29	ARI	NHL	46	964.8	786	845	48.2	0.3	591	677	46.6	-1.9	45	10.5	52	89.5	100.0	50.1	49.9

 

So first off I will walk you through how I personally assess this player for the 2020-21 Season.

1) OZS - 50.1 - So far he's utilized in both ends of the ice equally in all situations - thats a good sign. Is looked upon for offence and relied upon for defence evenly.

2) CORSI - 48.2 - So far he's nearly matching his OZS with possession, so far it looks okay, its a minor dip from his OZS... So far im not too concerned

3) oiSV% - .895oiSV% - ookay so now I begin to wonder wether or not he is good in his own zone, I feel slight concerns at this point

4) PDO - 100.0 (PDO is oiSV% + oiSH%) - at this point in 2020-21 OEL is struggling in his own zone, but offensively he is making up for that with a 10.5 shooting %

still I am uncertain about his defensive zone play, however I have a neutral feeling towards the player, seeing that he CAN contribute offensively at least.

5) +/- (-17) At this point I can see that OEL is consistently on the ice for quite a few goals, regardless of how +/- works out, there is a fairly telling sign when a player is that deep in the dashes. Something is going on. 

6) e+/- (-10.9) At this point I see that not all goals on the ice are attributed to OEL's play, his "+/-" should have been better. At this point I see him trending upwards once again in my analysis. 

7) DPS - 1.1 - his DPS was 9th on the team and one of the lower on D - he is definitely on a down year when contributing from his own zone and the play resulting in a point. However this is just 1 season and its a COVID riddled Season.

8) oiGF to oiGA - 45oiGF to 52oiGA. At this point he seems to be just a little below even when it comes to offensive contributions and defensive zone letdowns. 

 

- After I have looked at all these stats of this one single player, I then look to the rest of the guys on the back end to see who was the biggest detriment on the ice.

Now it has been made public knowledge that OEL has been going through some personal issues with the health of a family member the past few seasons, so I try to keep that in mind when I am investigating a player.

 

 

NHL Possession Metrics

Jakob Chychrun

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
Career			NHL	290	5941.9	5675	5499	50.8	4.4	4250	4086	51.0	5.3	273	9.0	255	91.0	100.1	55.6	44.4
2016-17	18	ARI	NHL	68	1133.3	946	1203	44.0	-1.5	714	925	43.6	-1.6	39	7.8	57	90.9	98.7	44.8	55.2
2017-18	19	ARI	NHL	50	1012.0	1011	965	51.2	3.5	731	727	50.1	4.3	44	8.7	35	92.9	101.7	60.4	39.6
2018-19	20	ARI	NHL	53	1073.5	1145	949	54.7	8.4	869	680	56.1	9.7	46	7.5	40	91.4	98.8	61.4	38.6
2019-20	21	ARI	NHL	63	1413.4	1345	1286	51.1	4.1	1020	944	51.9	5.5	71	9.5	60	91.0	100.5	50.9	49.1
2020-21	22	ARI	NHL	56	1309.7	1228	1096	52.8	7.3	916	810	53.1	8.1	73	11.3	63	89.4	100.6	61.0	39.0

 

 

So in 2020-21 Chychrun had a 61% OZS, 52.8 CF%, .894oiSV%, 100.6 PDO, his +/- was -6 and his e+/- was -8.9, DPS 2.9 his oiGF and oiGA were 73oiGF to 63oiGA

OEL and Chychrun did not have the same amount of GP, however their oiGA is nearly identical when you average it out. OEL is on the ice for 1.13GA/G and Chychrun is on the ice for 1.125

 

With zone starts far away from his own end, Chychrun is on the ice for the same amount of goals as OEL who starts 50/50.  Not saying that Chychrun sucks or anything, but OEL is more responsible from my point of view and how the stats break down. 

 

Thats just last year in a crapshoot of a season.

 

2019-20

 

Player	GP	OZS	CORSI	oiSV%	PDO	plus minus	E+/-	DPS	oiGF	oiGA
OEL	66	50.5	48.1	0.927	101.7	-3	-6.2	3.6	73	64
Chychrun	63	50.9	51.1	0.91	100.5	4	1.7	3.8	71	60

Nearly identical stats between the two players in 2019-20 So far I wouldnt say that OEL has "lost his job" to Chychrun.

 

 

2018-19

 

 

Player	GP	OZS	CORSI	oiSV%	PDO	plus minus	E+/-	DPS	oiGF	oiGA
OEL	81	62.1	55.2	0.903	98.6	-16	-5	4.2	86	88
Chychrun	53	61.4	54.7	0.914	98.8	-12	3.3	2.1	46	40

 

 

 

Thats 3 seasons where OEL is "declining" and Chychrun is on the ascending, yet their overall stats are pretty damn close top to bottom. I wouldnt go as far as saying OEL "lost his job" to Chychrun, its moreso that they found a replacement. 

 

Oh I forgot to mention that OEL finished 11th in Norris voting in 2018-19 and he's been nominated 5 times throughout his career. I wouldn't go as far as saying he has been declining for "years" he might have had a down season on a garbage team, but the guy is 30 and still has quite a few good years left in him.

 

 

And just for sh*ts and giggles..... using my formula, Look at Myers and Edler....

 

NHL Possession Metrics

 Tyler Myers

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
6 yrs		BUF	NHL	365	8324.3	7020	8147	46.3	-0.8	5341	6220	46.2	-1.0	360	9.1	399	91.1	100.2	46.6	53.4
2 yrs		VAN	NHL	123	2676.9	2301	2705	46.0	-3.0	1731	2059	45.7	-3.8	114	9.0	141	90.7	99.6	46.1	53.9
5 yrs		WPG	NHL	270	5852.0	5326	5663	48.5	-2.3	3942	4311	47.8	-3.2	282	9.8	270	91.4	101.1	49.2	50.8
Career			NHL	758	16853.2	14647	16515	47.0	-2.2	11014	12590	46.7	-2.8	756	9.3	810	91.1	100.4	47.4	52.6
2009-10	19	BUF	NHL	82	1924.0	1692	1820	48.2	-4.5	1313	1426	47.9	-4.2	101	10.4	87	91.6	102.0	48.1	51.9
2010-11	20	BUF	NHL	80	1796.6	1742	1580	52.4	3.9	1312	1236	51.5	1.5	96	9.8	92	89.3	99.1	51.1	48.9
2011-12	21	BUF	NHL	55	1237.0	1098	1233	47.1	-7.0	813	952	46.1	-8.2	55	9.5	51	92.7	102.2	51.7	48.3
2012-13	22	BUF	NHL	39	831.2	661	820	44.6	-3.8	507	615	45.2	-1.7	27	7.0	47	89.5	96.4	49.6	50.4
2013-14	23	BUF	NHL	62	1357.7	1065	1347	44.2	0.1	800	1045	43.4	-0.7	42	7.2	67	91.3	98.4	42.3	57.7
2014-15	24	TOT	NHL	71	1749.4	1260	1828	40.8	-1.9	968	1304	42.6	0.2	73	10.2	78	91.4	101.6	42.0	58.0
2014-15	24	BUF	NHL	47	1177.8	762	1347	36.1	-1.9	596	946	38.7	0.6	39	8.8	55	91.6	100.4	36.4	63.6
2014-15	24	WPG	NHL	24	571.6	498	481	50.9	-1.6	372	358	51.0	-0.7	34	12.3	23	90.9	103.2	54.0	46.0
2015-16	25	WPG	NHL	73	1650.4	1513	1447	51.1	0.2	1115	1109	50.1	-0.7	65	7.9	72	91.1	99.1	50.9	49.1
2016-17	26	WPG	NHL	11	244.3	195	245	44.3	-6.1	142	184	43.6	-5.2	11	11.0	7	94.4	105.4	41.7	58.3
2017-18	27	WPG	NHL	82	1757.0	1648	1780	48.1	-2.8	1216	1343	47.5	-4.1	88	9.8	80	91.7	101.6	45.9	54.1
2018-19	28	WPG	NHL	80	1628.8	1472	1710	46.3	-4.0	1097	1317	45.4	-5.1	84	10.5	88	90.9	101.4	50.4	49.6
2019-20	29	VAN	NHL	68	1462.5	1364	1463	48.2	-0.7	1029	1088	48.6	-1.1	65	8.6	75	90.7	99.3	52.5	47.5
2020-21	30	VAN	NHL	55	1214.4	937	1242	43.0	-6.0	702	971	42.0	-7.4	49	9.5	66	90.6	100.1	38.4	61.6

 

 

NHL Possession Metrics

 Alex Edler

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
Career			NHL	903	20925.6	19914	18920	51.3	1.7	14983	14065	51.6	2.5	1001	9.3	977	90.5	99.8	50.9	49.1
2007-08	21	VAN	NHL	75	1598.2	1425	1241	53.5	4.0	1125	954	54.1	3.8	72	8.8	57	91.7	100.6	55.4	44.6
2008-09	22	VAN	NHL	80	1674.0	1566	1378	53.2	4.0	1173	1061	52.5	3.3	93	11.0	64	91.4	102.5	57.9	42.1
2009-10	23	VAN	NHL	76	1721.3	1729	1489	53.7	2.3	1318	1123	54.0	2.5	90	9.6	76	90.8	100.4	55.9	44.1
2010-11	24	VAN	NHL	51	1238.9	1408	1080	56.6	6.2	1068	822	56.5	7.4	81	10.9	48	92.0	103.0	62.5	37.5
2011-12	25	VAN	NHL	82	1956.9	2073	1625	56.1	3.1	1510	1238	54.9	2.9	103	9.7	80	91.7	101.3	60.6	39.4
2012-13	26	VAN	NHL	45	1073.2	1039	844	55.2	2.9	773	648	54.4	4.1	46	8.5	44	91.2	99.7	59.9	40.1
2013-14	27	VAN	NHL	63	1467.1	1578	1301	54.8	0.8	1131	953	54.3	0.7	39	5.0	75	89.0	94.0	55.4	44.6
2014-15	28	VAN	NHL	74	1774.5	1665	1517	52.3	4.8	1252	1080	53.7	5.6	92	10.2	67	91.3	101.5	48.8	51.2
2015-16	29	VAN	NHL	52	1271.5	1122	1135	49.7	3.0	863	821	51.2	5.1	57	9.0	66	89.0	98.0	45.5	54.5
2016-17	30	VAN	NHL	68	1653.3	1460	1601	47.7	-1.6	1076	1243	46.4	-1.8	56	7.1	91	90.2	97.3	46.8	53.2
2017-18	31	VAN	NHL	70	1699.4	1599	1718	48.2	0.7	1197	1254	48.8	1.9	81	9.3	99	88.9	98.2	47.4	52.6
2018-19	32	VAN	NHL	56	1375.9	1246	1307	48.8	2.1	949	907	51.1	5.2	74	11.0	61	90.5	101.5	44.1	55.9
2019-20	33	VAN	NHL	59	1334.4	1226	1498	45.0	-6.7	923	1079	46.1	-5.9	76	11.1	78	90.4	101.5	39.1	60.9
2020-21	34	VAN	NHL	52	1087.1	778	1186	39.6	-10.9	625	882	41.5	-7.8	41	8.6	71	88.7	97.3	26.0	74.0

 

 

Luckily OEL can fill Eddie's shoes, but Myers is pretty under appreciated by a lot of fans.

 

 

 

 

 

Another thing that wallstreetamigo et. al conveniently ignores: Arizona is rebuilding. Although OEL's contract was signed long term, things change; the team has had financial issues for years, but tried to retain fan favourite OEL, who was still a top player for them. So now that they had been expressed a stronger stance to rebuild, OEL simply did not fit anymore. Chychrun is their future.

 

Nothing more, nothing less.

[Fred65]

I have to say I'm impressed with the numbers thrown out in post but long enough and enough volume make me any better at understanding them. However I assume the Pro scouts do and have. A couple of points some seem to lean on the fact that Arizona was a bad team, well they were better than Vcr was last season. My favourite is +/-  it's simple and last season OEL had the same +/- as Kessel, so we're comparing two on the same team, same stats keepers etc. Kessels is not IMO a strong candidate for the Selke. OEL has been a poor +/- for the last 8 years. That aside how will he project on to the Vcr roster, well he's expensive and he's signed long term. I doubt if he's movable and he's getting long in the tooth, especially after his initial couple of seasons in Vcr. He may.... may.. fill an immediate need but IMO will be a drag on the teams future. In a couple of years I think many fans will be questioning "why did we do that?"

[Eddie]

10 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

 

So there has been a mixed opinion/view of OEL and how he has been in recent years and how some people say he has been “trending downward” for quite a few years… Now I’m not exactly sure what people’s view of “quite a few years” is that 3 years? 5 years?…Lets look at the last 3 seasons, for arguments sake. Looking at anything beyond 3 years is going back to his certainly better years. We are supposed to be looking at his “declining” years, so I feel the last 3 seasons should be far enough back to paint a picture of OEL....

 

 

 

 

Thanks for this post !! This was the exact analytical deep dive I was looking for on OEL's recent performance and makes me feel that bit better about the signing for sure. 

JB's press conferences have worried since he never has been able to articulate why he took the 'gamble' on this signing for me.  It was all just 'Wellllll .... he's a good player blah' but, he couldn't really articulate why he felt the slide in form could be turned around and why it had happened in the first place, despite being directly asked by several members of the press.  

Really hope OEL can turn it around for us. Would love to get his jersey and add it to the collection of other great Swedish players I have over the years

Sadly Loui never made that cut. For those making that comp tho, i think its worth to remember that he was coming off a career year in Boston, not on the decline when we signed him.  I also think his play style was ultimately a bad fit offensively for the team when he first arrived - Not a great fit with the twins, and below that he really thrived in a high shot generating team, We just didn't really have that fire power for him to thrive on for the first few years of his career - then he had visibly given up and slowed down by the time the new guard arrived. 

OEL can play whatever role needed on the blue line and i think he will be much more defensively responsible than Nate last year - at least i hope sooo. 

 

[Dazzle]

1 hour ago, Fred65 said:

I have to say I'm impressed with the numbers thrown out in post but long enough and enough volume make me any better at understanding them. However I assume the Pro scouts do and have. A couple of points some seem to lean on the fact that Arizona was a bad team, well they were better than Vcr was last season. My favourite is +/-  it's simple and last season OEL had the same +/- as Kessel, so we're comparing two on the same team, same stats keepers etc. Kessels is not IMO a strong candidate for the Selke. OEL has been a poor +/- for the last 8 years. That aside how will he project on to the Vcr roster, well he's expensive and he's signed long term. I doubt if he's movable and he's getting long in the tooth, especially after his initial couple of seasons in Vcr. He may.... may.. fill an immediate need but IMO will be a drag on the teams future. In a couple of years I think many fans will be questioning "why did we do that?"

Simply re-stating what you and others have said about OEL, especially the inclusion of +/- just makes your angle look weak.

 

Lots of doubters have thought there's no reason for him to change, and they always fail to see things in a different way other than their own - the fact that OEL wants to be here. After all, Vancouver/Boston were the two teams that he would waive for - and we weren't really that good.

[knucklehead91]

24 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Sadly Loui never made that cut. For those making that comp tho, i think its worth to remember that he was coming off a career year in Boston, not on the decline when we signed him.  I also think his play style was ultimately a bad fit offensively for the team when he first arrived - Not a great fit with the twins, and below that he really thrived in a high shot generating team, We just didn't really have that fire power for him to thrive on for the first few years of his career - then he had visibly given up and slowed down by the time the new guard arrived. 
 

Totally agree about Loui, its not that he was a poorly thought out signing and a bad choice, its just that it didnt pan out. I believe the Sedins were even approached about the signing and they liked LE, they had chemistry on international levels, it just didnt pan out in Vancouver. Loui had 2 injuries in his first 2 seasons and missed considerable time and then his linemates retired..

 

Im working on a little project that breaks down the big trades and signings over the course of Bennings tenure and the timing of each move and how it relates to what the state of the team was at those times. It should shed light on how Benning has made calculated moves and the change of how the business was run pre-sedin retirement to post-retirement. The Canucks went from an Ownership run organization to a Management run team 

[JM_]

12 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

 

So there has been a mixed opinion/view of OEL and how he has been in recent years and how some people say he has been “trending downward” for quite a few years… Now I’m not exactly sure what people’s view of “quite a few years” is that 3 years? 5 years?…Lets look at the last 3 seasons, for arguments sake. Looking at anything beyond 3 years is going back to his certainly better years. We are supposed to be looking at his “declining” years, so I feel the last 3 seasons should be far enough back to paint a picture of OEL

 

So from you are saying  @wallstreetamigo that OEL lost his job to Chychrun Im going to show you how I evaluate a player and then compare the two. From my formula you can look at players and see wether you and other people here agree or disagree.

I do not look at 1 particular stat and say “oh well he really sucks, his CORSI is el terrible as the spaniards would say” I cross reference my advanced stats to give a much better picture of what is actually going on while someone is on the ice. I look at several different stats to determine wether or not this is a trend, bad luck or an overall bad team.

 

 

Zone deployment vs CORSI vs oiSV% vs PDO

plus minus vs expected plus minus 

CF% relief - CF% on ice vs off ice

DPS - Defensive point shares - points created from Defence

 

I just want to state this in an easy to read spot, I understand that +/- is flawed in many ways, however it does tell some truth to what is going on, especially if its a high plus or very bad minus.  I look at it briefly and then compare it to expected +/- to see if it changes for the better or for the worst. depending on how it changes, I can get a bit of a sense of what is happening on the ice.

 

A player who has a high DZS is a guy who is primarily relied upon in defensive situations, i.e. trusted. DZS is an indication of where this player is going to be utilized during games and in critical moments. I personally weigh their OZS to compare with CORSI, because I feel its a bit easier to measure and understand the players effectiveness on ice. ie CORSI being below their OZS = player is losing possession. I then look at their oiSV% and PDO. A player with a higher than 55% DZS is primarily a “shutdown” role. A player with a higher DZS will come at a lower CORSI/oiSV% and PDO as they are starting the shift in their own zone. So a player with a high OZS should have high CORSI, oiSV% and PDO, because they aren’t in their zone as much as the guy with a higher DZS. Naturally a high DZS will come with a lower CORSI 46-49 range…Pucks don’t always make it out, forwards fail to get the puck out or turn it over on the breakout and it leads to opposition with zone control and CORSI being effected. I then look at the oiSV% as it is an indication of wether or not their goalie is seeing the shot, making the save and the rebound is either scooped up or moved to safety. If it is a low oiSV% I then refer to their +/- and their e +/-     if they have a high minus (-40 for example), it gives me an idea that their is a consistent issue on the ice. Then I will look at their e +/- to determine wether it is the goalie or the player(s). If the e +/- is better by a large margin, then I know it is a goaltending issue. If it is the same or worse or the same…. We know it is the player. E+/- is a stat tracked based on shots from a location from around the league and what the result is from a league wide basis. I also look at their DPS which indicates what they are doing on the ice and what it results in from their own end. Does their play lead to a goal for or a goal against? You really need to see the whole picture to understand the player, CORSI alone is not enough, each and every single advanced stat has its blinders on to the stats around it. Onto of it all, you have to really take into consideration, where this player is playing and how much the team is achieving/underachieving. Stats are directly related to environment, its

If you put these stats together you get a much better understanding of the player on the ice.

 

I personally use OZS to compare with CORSI, because I feel its a bit easier to measure and understand the players effectiveness on ice. ie CORSI being below their OZS = player is losing possession.

 

A player with low OZS (<50) but mid CORSI (47+) is a responsible player

A player with high OZS(55+) and mid to low CORSI (<51) has some sort of relation to the on ice loss of possession 

 

For example Tyson Barrie, throughout his career he has had exceptionally high OZS, but his CORSI drops quite considerably when you compare CORSI to OZS. Then you look at someone like Duncan Keith, throughout his career he has had high and low OZS, but his CORSI remains true to his zone starts and it even surpasses his seasons with a low OZS or remains fairly close to it. That is a player who is exceptional. 

 

Here is Duncan Keith for example

NHL Possession Metrics

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
Career			NHL	1029	25870.7	25009	23212	51.9	-0.2	18612	17696	51.3	-0.6	1383	9.9	1261	90.6	100.4	51.3	48.7
2007-08	24	CHI	NHL	82	2072.9	1493	1790	45.5	-10.3	1179	1374	46.2	-10.3	95	10.3	98	90.8	101.1	42.5	57.5
2008-09	25	CHI	NHL	77	1967.1	1759	1612	52.2	-5.2	1382	1264	52.2	-5.1	109	10.1	88	91.0	101.1	42.8	57.2
2009-10	26	CHI	NHL	82	2178.8	2237	1756	56.0	-3.5	1706	1282	57.1	-4.1	128	10.2	102	89.2	99.4	50.1	49.9
2010-11	27	CHI	NHL	82	2204.6	2257	1898	54.3	2.5	1680	1438	53.9	0.1	121	9.8	107	90.0	99.9	53.1	46.9
2011-12	28	CHI	NHL	74	1990.2	1969	1780	52.5	-0.8	1473	1361	52.0	-0.5	114	10.7	99	90.1	100.8	51.8	48.2
2012-13	29	CHI	NHL	47	1133.1	1046	935	52.8	-3.5	772	691	52.8	-5.4	65	10.9	43	91.9	102.8	55.2	44.8
2013-14	30	CHI	NHL	79	1947.3	2134	1618	56.9	0.5	1572	1231	56.1	-0.9	126	10.7	86	90.7	101.4	58.6	41.4
2014-15	31	CHI	NHL	80	2043.8	2269	1728	56.8	4.7	1642	1347	54.9	3.5	105	8.6	83	91.8	100.4	55.7	44.3
2015-16	32	CHI	NHL	67	1690.8	1592	1526	51.1	1.7	1179	1146	50.7	1.9	94	11.0	75	91.2	102.2	45.5	54.5
2016-17	33	CHI	NHL	80	2049.3	1958	1905	50.7	1.1	1426	1415	50.2	1.2	112	10.3	92	91.4	101.7	53.2	46.8
2017-18	34	CHI	NHL	82	1953.9	2109	1961	51.8	-1.0	1491	1497	49.9	-1.4	74	6.7	117	89.6	96.3	55.5	44.5
2018-19	35	CHI	NHL	82	1887.4	1774	1916	48.1	-2.2	1326	1499	46.9	-2.2	105	10.2	114	89.8	99.9	53.2	46.8
2019-20	36	CHI	NHL	61	1487.5	1383	1532	47.4	-2.7	1016	1167	46.5	-3.3	73	9.4	74	91.9	101.3	49.1	50.9
2020-21	37	CHI	NHL	54	1264.1	1029	1255	45.1	-3.3	768	984	43.8	-4.0	62	9.9	83	89.0	98.9	48.6	51.4

 

Duncan Keith's career OZS is lower than his career CORSI 51.9>51.3 meaning no matter where he is on the ice has a higher possession number than where he started. This is a perfect example of how CORSI cannot be looked at all on its own, you need to factor in where the player started etc. Look at Keith's years from 2007-16. Only 2 seasons where his OZS was higher than his CORSI.

 

 

 

Now look at Tyson Barrie

NHL Possession Metrics

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
8 yrs		COL	NHL	484	10539.6	10737	9240	53.7	10.4	7984	6998	53.3	9.4	583	10.0	478	90.6	100.6	63.9	36.1
Career			NHL	610	13269.2	13843	11541	54.5	10.5	10313	8820	53.9	9.3	769	10.2	606	90.6	100.8	64.3	35.7
2011-12	20	COL	NHL	10	176.5	200	146	57.8	9.4	157	104	60.2	11.3	7	5.6	7	91.4	97.0	76.3	23.7
2012-13	21	COL	NHL	32	690.6	656	627	51.1	4.2	495	482	50.7	2.7	24	7.0	31	91.1	98.1	54.6	45.4
2013-14	22	COL	NHL	64	1186.7	1212	998	54.8	9.1	907	757	54.5	8.4	78	11.8	41	92.5	104.3	63.8	36.2
2014-15	23	COL	NHL	80	1709.9	1646	1548	51.5	11.3	1213	1117	52.1	11.0	104	11.4	75	90.5	101.9	58.5	41.5
2015-16	24	COL	NHL	78	1809.0	1742	1704	50.6	9.0	1296	1306	49.8	6.1	96	10.1	88	90.6	100.7	58.4	41.6
2016-17	25	COL	NHL	74	1724.6	1689	1421	54.3	9.3	1265	1133	52.8	8.5	64	7.1	87	89.9	97.0	63.3	36.7
2017-18	26	COL	NHL	68	1543.4	1623	1411	53.5	10.4	1180	1073	52.4	9.4	100	11.8	78	90.0	101.8	69.5	30.5
2018-19	27	COL	NHL	78	1698.9	1969	1385	58.7	14.0	1471	1026	58.9	13.6	110	10.1	71	90.7	100.7	71.7	28.3
2019-20	28	TOR	NHL	70	1531.4	1750	1315	57.1	8.8	1296	1043	55.4	7.0	92	9.9	75	90.1	100.0	64.0	36.0
2020-21	29	EDM	NHL	56	1198.2	1356	986	57.9	14.2	1033	779	57.0	12.4	94	12.3	53	90.8	103.0	68.0	32.0

 

 

Tyson Barrie has an average of 64.3 OZS with a CORSI of 54.5...... That is ringing the alarm bells for me when it comes to possession. Barrie is kept well away from his own end and when he gets into his own end.... its not a pretty sight.

 

 

 

 

NHL Possession Metrics

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

 

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
7 yrs		ARI	NHL	511	12204.1	12123	10898	52.7	7.8	8999	8525	51.4	6.5	591	9.2	604	90.0	99.2	54.0	46.0
4 yrs		PHX	NHL	258	5810.2	5433	4986	52.1	1.8	4013	3837	51.1	1.0	257	9.1	231	91.5	100.6	50.5	49.5
Career			NHL	769	18014.3	17556	15884	52.5	6.5	13012	12362	51.3	5.3	848	9.1	835	90.5	99.6	52.9	47.1
2010-11	19	PHX	NHL	48	721.7	706	604	53.9	3.2	523	483	52.0	2.8	32	8.8	29	91.6	100.3	50.9	49.1
2011-12	20	PHX	NHL	82	1813.0	1675	1548	52.0	2.6	1230	1220	50.2	1.2	73	8.6	71	91.8	100.4	49.5	50.5
2012-13	21	PHX	NHL	48	1204.6	1123	1067	51.3	0.5	828	804	50.7	-1.5	54	9.2	52	90.9	100.1	47.7	52.3
2013-14	22	PHX	NHL	80	2070.9	1929	1767	52.2	1.4	1432	1330	51.8	0.9	98	9.5	79	91.7	101.1	52.6	47.4
2014-15	23	ARI	NHL	82	2067.5	2082	1879	52.6	8.0	1523	1430	51.6	7.2	90	8.3	106	89.9	98.1	50.8	49.2
2015-16	24	ARI	NHL	75	1853.6	2008	1459	57.9	17.2	1474	1136	56.5	16.4	118	11.1	90	88.6	99.7	60.5	39.5
2016-17	25	ARI	NHL	79	1944.6	1797	1875	48.9	6.3	1364	1458	48.3	6.2	87	9.1	98	90.3	99.5	49.5	50.5
2017-18	26	ARI	NHL	82	1940.0	2051	1709	54.5	9.4	1490	1343	52.6	8.4	92	8.7	106	88.6	97.2	51.9	48.1
2018-19	27	ARI	NHL	81	1915.1	2008	1628	55.2	9.6	1480	1269	53.8	6.7	86	8.3	88	90.3	98.6	62.1	37.9
2019-20	28	ARI	NHL	66	1518.6	1391	1503	48.1	-0.5	1077	1212	47.1	-1.8	73	9.0	64	92.7	101.7	50.5	49.5
2020-21	29	ARI	NHL	46	964.8	786	845	48.2	0.3	591	677	46.6	-1.9	45	10.5	52	89.5	100.0	50.1	49.9

 

So first off I will walk you through how I personally assess this player for the 2020-21 Season.

1) OZS - 50.1 - So far he's utilized in both ends of the ice equally in all situations - thats a good sign. Is looked upon for offence and relied upon for defence evenly.

2) CORSI - 48.2 - So far he's nearly matching his OZS with possession, so far it looks okay, its a minor dip from his OZS... So far im not too concerned

3) oiSV% - .895oiSV% - ookay so now I begin to wonder wether or not he is good in his own zone, I feel slight concerns at this point

4) PDO - 100.0 (PDO is oiSV% + oiSH%) - at this point in 2020-21 OEL is struggling in his own zone, but offensively he is making up for that with a 10.5 shooting %

still I am uncertain about his defensive zone play, however I have a neutral feeling towards the player, seeing that he CAN contribute offensively at least.

5) +/- (-17) At this point I can see that OEL is consistently on the ice for quite a few goals, regardless of how +/- works out, there is a fairly telling sign when a player is that deep in the dashes. Something is going on. 

6) e+/- (-10.9) At this point I see that not all goals on the ice are attributed to OEL's play, his "+/-" should have been better. At this point I see him trending upwards once again in my analysis. 

7) DPS - 1.1 - his DPS was 9th on the team and one of the lower on D - he is definitely on a down year when contributing from his own zone and the play resulting in a point. However this is just 1 season and its a COVID riddled Season.

8) oiGF to oiGA - 45oiGF to 52oiGA. At this point he seems to be just a little below even when it comes to offensive contributions and defensive zone letdowns. 

 

- After I have looked at all these stats of this one single player, I then look to the rest of the guys on the back end to see who was the biggest detriment on the ice.

Now it has been made public knowledge that OEL has been going through some personal issues with the health of a family member the past few seasons, so I try to keep that in mind when I am investigating a player.

 

 

NHL Possession Metrics

Jakob Chychrun

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
Career			NHL	290	5941.9	5675	5499	50.8	4.4	4250	4086	51.0	5.3	273	9.0	255	91.0	100.1	55.6	44.4
2016-17	18	ARI	NHL	68	1133.3	946	1203	44.0	-1.5	714	925	43.6	-1.6	39	7.8	57	90.9	98.7	44.8	55.2
2017-18	19	ARI	NHL	50	1012.0	1011	965	51.2	3.5	731	727	50.1	4.3	44	8.7	35	92.9	101.7	60.4	39.6
2018-19	20	ARI	NHL	53	1073.5	1145	949	54.7	8.4	869	680	56.1	9.7	46	7.5	40	91.4	98.8	61.4	38.6
2019-20	21	ARI	NHL	63	1413.4	1345	1286	51.1	4.1	1020	944	51.9	5.5	71	9.5	60	91.0	100.5	50.9	49.1
2020-21	22	ARI	NHL	56	1309.7	1228	1096	52.8	7.3	916	810	53.1	8.1	73	11.3	63	89.4	100.6	61.0	39.0

 

 

So in 2020-21 Chychrun had a 61% OZS, 52.8 CF%, .894oiSV%, 100.6 PDO, his +/- was -6 and his e+/- was -8.9, DPS 2.9 his oiGF and oiGA were 73oiGF to 63oiGA

OEL and Chychrun did not have the same amount of GP, however their oiGA is nearly identical when you average it out. OEL is on the ice for 1.13GA/G and Chychrun is on the ice for 1.125

 

With zone starts far away from his own end, Chychrun is on the ice for the same amount of goals as OEL who starts 50/50.  Not saying that Chychrun sucks or anything, but OEL is more responsible from my point of view and how the stats break down. 

 

Thats just last year in a crapshoot of a season.

 

2019-20

 

Player	GP	OZS	CORSI	oiSV%	PDO	plus minus	E+/-	DPS	oiGF	oiGA
OEL	66	50.5	48.1	0.927	101.7	-3	-6.2	3.6	73	64
Chychrun	63	50.9	51.1	0.91	100.5	4	1.7	3.8	71	60

Nearly identical stats between the two players in 2019-20 So far I wouldnt say that OEL has "lost his job" to Chychrun.

 

 

2018-19

 

 

Player	GP	OZS	CORSI	oiSV%	PDO	plus minus	E+/-	DPS	oiGF	oiGA
OEL	81	62.1	55.2	0.903	98.6	-16	-5	4.2	86	88
Chychrun	53	61.4	54.7	0.914	98.8	-12	3.3	2.1	46	40

 

 

 

Thats 3 seasons where OEL is "declining" and Chychrun is on the ascending, yet their overall stats are pretty damn close top to bottom. I wouldnt go as far as saying OEL "lost his job" to Chychrun, its moreso that they found a replacement. 

 

Oh I forgot to mention that OEL finished 11th in Norris voting in 2018-19 and he's been nominated 5 times throughout his career. I wouldn't go as far as saying he has been declining for "years" he might have had a down season on a garbage team, but the guy is 30 and still has quite a few good years left in him.

 

 

And just for sh*ts and giggles..... using my formula, Look at Myers and Edler....

 

NHL Possession Metrics

 Tyler Myers

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
6 yrs		BUF	NHL	365	8324.3	7020	8147	46.3	-0.8	5341	6220	46.2	-1.0	360	9.1	399	91.1	100.2	46.6	53.4
2 yrs		VAN	NHL	123	2676.9	2301	2705	46.0	-3.0	1731	2059	45.7	-3.8	114	9.0	141	90.7	99.6	46.1	53.9
5 yrs		WPG	NHL	270	5852.0	5326	5663	48.5	-2.3	3942	4311	47.8	-3.2	282	9.8	270	91.4	101.1	49.2	50.8
Career			NHL	758	16853.2	14647	16515	47.0	-2.2	11014	12590	46.7	-2.8	756	9.3	810	91.1	100.4	47.4	52.6
2009-10	19	BUF	NHL	82	1924.0	1692	1820	48.2	-4.5	1313	1426	47.9	-4.2	101	10.4	87	91.6	102.0	48.1	51.9
2010-11	20	BUF	NHL	80	1796.6	1742	1580	52.4	3.9	1312	1236	51.5	1.5	96	9.8	92	89.3	99.1	51.1	48.9
2011-12	21	BUF	NHL	55	1237.0	1098	1233	47.1	-7.0	813	952	46.1	-8.2	55	9.5	51	92.7	102.2	51.7	48.3
2012-13	22	BUF	NHL	39	831.2	661	820	44.6	-3.8	507	615	45.2	-1.7	27	7.0	47	89.5	96.4	49.6	50.4
2013-14	23	BUF	NHL	62	1357.7	1065	1347	44.2	0.1	800	1045	43.4	-0.7	42	7.2	67	91.3	98.4	42.3	57.7
2014-15	24	TOT	NHL	71	1749.4	1260	1828	40.8	-1.9	968	1304	42.6	0.2	73	10.2	78	91.4	101.6	42.0	58.0
2014-15	24	BUF	NHL	47	1177.8	762	1347	36.1	-1.9	596	946	38.7	0.6	39	8.8	55	91.6	100.4	36.4	63.6
2014-15	24	WPG	NHL	24	571.6	498	481	50.9	-1.6	372	358	51.0	-0.7	34	12.3	23	90.9	103.2	54.0	46.0
2015-16	25	WPG	NHL	73	1650.4	1513	1447	51.1	0.2	1115	1109	50.1	-0.7	65	7.9	72	91.1	99.1	50.9	49.1
2016-17	26	WPG	NHL	11	244.3	195	245	44.3	-6.1	142	184	43.6	-5.2	11	11.0	7	94.4	105.4	41.7	58.3
2017-18	27	WPG	NHL	82	1757.0	1648	1780	48.1	-2.8	1216	1343	47.5	-4.1	88	9.8	80	91.7	101.6	45.9	54.1
2018-19	28	WPG	NHL	80	1628.8	1472	1710	46.3	-4.0	1097	1317	45.4	-5.1	84	10.5	88	90.9	101.4	50.4	49.6
2019-20	29	VAN	NHL	68	1462.5	1364	1463	48.2	-0.7	1029	1088	48.6	-1.1	65	8.6	75	90.7	99.3	52.5	47.5
2020-21	30	VAN	NHL	55	1214.4	937	1242	43.0	-6.0	702	971	42.0	-7.4	49	9.5	66	90.6	100.1	38.4	61.6

 

 

NHL Possession Metrics

 Alex Edler

						Corsi (All)				Fenwick (All)				PDO (All)					Zone Starts (All)
Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	CF% rel	FF	FA	FF%	FF% rel	oiGF	oiSH%	oiGA	oiSV%	PDO	oZS%	dZS%
Career			NHL	903	20925.6	19914	18920	51.3	1.7	14983	14065	51.6	2.5	1001	9.3	977	90.5	99.8	50.9	49.1
2007-08	21	VAN	NHL	75	1598.2	1425	1241	53.5	4.0	1125	954	54.1	3.8	72	8.8	57	91.7	100.6	55.4	44.6
2008-09	22	VAN	NHL	80	1674.0	1566	1378	53.2	4.0	1173	1061	52.5	3.3	93	11.0	64	91.4	102.5	57.9	42.1
2009-10	23	VAN	NHL	76	1721.3	1729	1489	53.7	2.3	1318	1123	54.0	2.5	90	9.6	76	90.8	100.4	55.9	44.1
2010-11	24	VAN	NHL	51	1238.9	1408	1080	56.6	6.2	1068	822	56.5	7.4	81	10.9	48	92.0	103.0	62.5	37.5
2011-12	25	VAN	NHL	82	1956.9	2073	1625	56.1	3.1	1510	1238	54.9	2.9	103	9.7	80	91.7	101.3	60.6	39.4
2012-13	26	VAN	NHL	45	1073.2	1039	844	55.2	2.9	773	648	54.4	4.1	46	8.5	44	91.2	99.7	59.9	40.1
2013-14	27	VAN	NHL	63	1467.1	1578	1301	54.8	0.8	1131	953	54.3	0.7	39	5.0	75	89.0	94.0	55.4	44.6
2014-15	28	VAN	NHL	74	1774.5	1665	1517	52.3	4.8	1252	1080	53.7	5.6	92	10.2	67	91.3	101.5	48.8	51.2
2015-16	29	VAN	NHL	52	1271.5	1122	1135	49.7	3.0	863	821	51.2	5.1	57	9.0	66	89.0	98.0	45.5	54.5
2016-17	30	VAN	NHL	68	1653.3	1460	1601	47.7	-1.6	1076	1243	46.4	-1.8	56	7.1	91	90.2	97.3	46.8	53.2
2017-18	31	VAN	NHL	70	1699.4	1599	1718	48.2	0.7	1197	1254	48.8	1.9	81	9.3	99	88.9	98.2	47.4	52.6
2018-19	32	VAN	NHL	56	1375.9	1246	1307	48.8	2.1	949	907	51.1	5.2	74	11.0	61	90.5	101.5	44.1	55.9
2019-20	33	VAN	NHL	59	1334.4	1226	1498	45.0	-6.7	923	1079	46.1	-5.9	76	11.1	78	90.4	101.5	39.1	60.9
2020-21	34	VAN	NHL	52	1087.1	778	1186	39.6	-10.9	625	882	41.5	-7.8	41	8.6	71	88.7	97.3	26.0	74.0

 

 

Luckily OEL can fill Eddie's shoes, but Myers is pretty under appreciated by a lot of fans.

 

 

 

 

 

 

nice work. 

 

I think all of this shows there's been a lot of throw away one liner commentary on OEL that doesn't add up. I'm curious to see how Chychrun does on his own this year without OEL in the lineup. 

 

Edited August 8, 2021 by Jimmy McGill

[Fred65]

1 hour ago, Dazzle said:

Simply re-stating what you and others have said about OEL, especially the inclusion of +/- just makes your angle look weak.

 

Lots of doubters have thought there's no reason for him to change, and they always fail to see things in a different way other than their own - the fact that OEL wants to be here. After all, Vancouver/Boston were the two teams that he would waive for - and we weren't really that good.

I'm betting Dazzle you were all in for Lou Ericksson too. We all understand the idiosyncrasy some of them well founded and yet the +/- is still used constantly my nhl insiders ie "he's a plus player" it doesn't detract from it having value. To throw it out the window is wrong, plus of course his stats are repeated year after year, and frankly for a number of years. You can't keep simply denying that it might well point some thing not so good. It's good  to be a cheerleader as long as it's understood it's all about hope rather than fact. I hope he does well but the facts tell me different. What do you have against facts

[Dazzle]

8 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

I'm betting Dazzle you were all in for Lou Ericksson too. We all understand the idiosyncrasy some of them well founded and yet the +/- is still used constantly my nhl insiders ie "he's a plus player" it doesn't detract from it having value. To throw it out the window is wrong, plus of course his stats are repeated year after year, and frankly for a number of years. You can't keep simply denying that it might well point some thing not so good. It's good  to be a cheerleader as long as it's understood it's all about hope rather than fact. I hope he does well but the facts tell me different. What do you have against facts

I was for Eriksson, and there wasn't much reason to say otherwise. If we're talking about "facts"
 

 

Eriksson was worth 6 million dollars before coming here. Anyone who said otherwise during the signing is just being dishonest. The term wasn't the greatest, but the thought was that he would SURELY (proven wrong now) produce.

 

+/- is not a good stat to use without further context. Look at this example: +13. What does this mean? Does it mean he's a positive contributor to the team? It's such a limiting stat.

 

Are we still talking about "facts" here? or are we talking about 'facts' that are cherrypicked after the fact?

These stats above don't lie. Eriksson was an established scorer on two different teams. His signing was better than Lucic/Neal's at the time. And yet Eriksson sucked hard here. But did anyone really know this would happen?

A lot of GMs that year sucked with their UFAs, so this was hardly a Vancouver mistake.

[Fred65]

Quote

A lot of GMs that year sucked with their UFAs, so this was hardly a Vancouver mistake.

That's not good, why should our problems be confused with other teams, it' s  the old " if he jumps from the bridge will you do the same" logic or lack there of. I always thought Ericksson and Schmidt were players dragged along by their team mates. George McPhee i have a lot of respect for, Boston is a good organisation and yet didnt want to resign Ericksson. Both teams are IMO better managed than Vcr. I have no idea about Garland he might well be the saving grace for JB. I can't recall seeing him play but all indications are he's a difference maker, neither LE or Schmidt were IMO difference makers

[Dazzle]

6 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

That's not good, why should our problems be confused with other teams, it' s  the old " if he jumps from the bridge will you do the same" logic or lack there of. I always thought Ericksson and Schmidt were players dragged along by their team mates. George McPhee i have a lot of respect for, Boston is a good organisation and yet didnt want to resign Ericksson. Both teams are IMO better managed than Vcr. I have no idea about Garland he might well be the saving grace for JB. I can't recall seeing him play but all indications are he's a difference maker, neither LE or Schmidt were IMO difference makers

Your analysis is so cherrypicked.

 

I don't know what world you live in that a 30 goal scorer, or a 30 point defenseman wouldn't be considered a "difference maker".

 

Boston walked away from Eriksson, sure, but from another point of view, they let a 30 goal scorer go for free - why didn't they sell him off at the deadline? Hindsight is always 20/20, and that's my point. 

 

If everyone would be making the right decisions all the time, we wouldn't have teams flopping on their first round picks, like you know, Boston?