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Draft edition: Benning vs the World

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9 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

First off, if you read the entire post, you’d see that I have already laid out a clear picture of how our Uncle Jim has done at the draft table compared to the entire league.

 

Secondly 1 NHL calibre player in each draft in different positions is so much more than almost every single NHL team in the league, and JB has covered all bases, wingers, centres, defence and goaltending where as almost every other organization is either stacked up front, or has a couple on the back end. 

I have also laid out, very early in my OP that our drafting the past 7 years has been better than any other GM we have had the past 20 years. Bennings success rate is the 3rd highest in the league.

 

Also just a little math for you a 2021 NHL draft pick cannot play in the 2020-21 season so counting the 2021 draft picks in your calculations of 5 NHL players out of 54 is inaccurate. Its actually 48 players so 5/48= 10.4% of draft picks will be an NHLer compared to Torontos 4/60 which is 6.7% or Edmontons 4/45 which is 8.8%

And I will just say this once again JB has drafted players who have become NHL players. Toronto and Edmontons 4 players are the only 4 players to turn into NHL players since 2014. Benning had drafted 9 players who have actually become NHL players

Forsling, Demko, McCann, Virtanen, Boeser, Gaudette, Pettersson, Hughes and Hoglander 9/48 is 18.75% without including Lind who is in Seattle, Rathbone who is getting a shot with Vancouver, Juolevi, Gadjovich, Podkolzin, Klimovich, Lockwood, DiPietro…. Thats 9 more players who have a legitimate shot to make the NHL, so if 20% of those picks become an NHLer next year thats 11 players in 7 years. 11/48=22.9% and if 1/5 of the 2020 and 2021 players become NHLers by the success rate that Benning is having he will have another 2 players become NHLers.
 

Podz, Juolevi, Lockwood, Gadjovich, Klimovich, Rathbone all have an opportunity to become an NHLer this upcoming season.  Soooo like no, JB should not be going anywhere anytime soon. He is drafting well above most of the league.

Also Jackson Kunz a 2020 draft pick had an exceptional year last year and isnt out of the realm of possibility to be an NHLer.

 

Go look at Detroit and Buffalo who have drafted higher than Vancouver for longer and have less to show. 


 

While I generally agree with your logic, calculations, stats and angle it still does not negate my statement of fact that only 5 players out of the entire 54 that Uncle Jim has drafted over the last eight years are on this teams regular roster.   That is simply the point I am making, so any woulda, shoulda, coulda, re-dicing and slicing of stats cannot change that TRUE FACT !  But with that said, i share your hope and optimism that more will make the team one day.

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9 hours ago, Patel Bure said:

Let’s look at this from another perspective:

 

Draft picks highlighted in black.

 

Miller-Pettersson-Boeser

Hoglander-Horvat-Garland

Pearson-Dickinson-Podkolzin

Motte-Sutter-Highmore

 

OEL-Hamonic
Hughes-Poolman

[RathboneORJuolevi]-Myers

 

Demko

Halak

 

So by my count,...

-8 draft picks have made the team

-5-6 1st rounders (depending on whether it’s Juolevi or Rathbone that makes the team)

-2-3 non-1sts

 

The Departed, but played on the Canucks for at least one full season:

-Gaudette

-Virtanen

-Tryamkin

 

The rest of our current roster:

-Miller acquired from a 1st

-Garland acquired from a 1st

-Pearson acquired from a 1st (McCann), 2nd, and a 4th in an indirect way

-Motte acquired for a 3rd

-Highmore acquired for a 5th in an indirect way (Gaudette)

 

Previous roster players acquired with picks that played at least one full season:

-Baertschi

-Granlund

 

So, either I’m not fully understanding your argument, or you seem to have some kind of misguided philosophy that teams need to be built exclusively through draft picks.  I am of the belief that eight picks on a team is a solid number.  Can you provide examples of successful teams that have more picks on their team?

 

 

You've just confirmed (above) exactly what I stated in my earlier post; that there are 5 good Uncle Jim Picks on our regular Roster.  Rat-Bone, and Pods are unproven rookies and Yo-levi has been a bust (so far), so I'm not sure what you're having trouble understanding.  I suspect you're over analyzing or trying to read more into what I stated or maybe you're just having trouble digesting this FACT, so there is nothing more to it than "5 good Uncle jim picks on the regular Roster thru 54 picks".  Plain & simple and not more complicated than that.   

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9 hours ago, Sean Monahan said:

Here’s a hint: literally nobody knows what will come of a single one of the prospects taken in this past draft. 

 

9 hours ago, Isam said:

I do, but i am from the year 3942 and i cannot tell you cuz it might disrupt the timeline.

....can you at least tell us if the Canucks are still waiting to win the cup in the year 3942?

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9 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

 

Benning ultimately has the final say as to who we are drafting. He came in and drafted on short notice higher in the draft in 2014, since that draft he has hit a homerun in almost every single draft. The OJ draft is a bit unfair to judge quite yet because OJ had sustained serious injuries after being drafted, but he is healthy now and Lockwood looks like he could be a guy who earns a spot. 
 

And a lot of fans only look at the negatives and dont see the positives or even try to understand each of Bennings moves and the timing of the moves during his timeline here, which, be prepared for it, im working on breaking down Bennings timeline, trades and signings.

.........................only 5 home runs out of 54 - at bats - in eight years !

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19 hours ago, Alflives said:

Okay, but it’s a Canuck’s fan board.  Why would we not look at things from our team’s view?  

What an intelligent question !

 

A: because if we all stayed silent and let the mediocre results continue without saying a peep - nothing would change and we'd be another Arizona team.   This is Canuck land and Canuck nation and we want and expect better and as paying fans for "the product", have every right to voice our opinions. Good or bad - and after several bottom of the pack finishes under uncle Jim's leadership many are growing impatient with his continuous  "we'll be better next year" promises.  He's had eight long years - eight - count em !!!

 

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12 minutes ago, spook007 said:

TBH I'm not sure... He did mention the organisation, but as I mentioned in the following post, Everything stands and falls with the GM on his watch.

I don't really think, he put any fuel on the fire. He's excited and pleased with Benning, which is actually a change from most of these thought of posts.


For now he has definitely done decently, in the way he has drafted, and as shown above average... The big question will be, how well he drafts, when he starts drafting in the lower regions, but he did fantastic with BB and fine with McCann too, so we shall see...

 

Anyway, if Benning achieves, what we all hope for and build a cup contending team, he deserves all the accolades, he gets, but if he doesn't his legacy will held in the esteem it deserves... 

 

Can I just say, I thought we were going to wait another year, and get all the 'bad' contracts go, before accelerating, but I am ecstatic with the offseason, he has had.

I am sick of losing, and can't wait for a team that actually looks certain for playoffs... Remains to be seen, but I, for one, am going into the next season full of hope and excitement...

This is definately the best offseason I’ve seen here. 

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12 hours ago, Timråfan said:

Look at me as an objective person. 
That can give some hints. If you look at me as biased you miss the point of my post.

 

It’s indifferent if it’s hockey, medicine, science… I want credit to be given to the right person, at least an organisation that gives credit to the right people.

When Benning gave credit to Delorme it was a strategic choice of him wich in my view is very wrong.

Benning should be honest and not pad ”his” people as Inge was on his way to retirement.

Benning know Inge very well.

This is my objective view in any similar situation.

This is not because I dislike Benning.

There is a lot of men padding each others backs instead of being honest.

You can say I have high demands on every man who is GM.

 

Regarding communication it’s mostly his communication with media but there were also some bad communiction when Benning tried to get OEL last year and lost an all accounts. Didn’t all three of Stecher, Tanev and Toffoli say that they had to sign because Benning didn’t speak to them? Here it’s just memory so I can be mistaken. 

 

The troll bit from OP is that he choose to put Benning on a pidestal instead of recognice the whole organisation and value each part of it.

It’s not like Benning hasn’t been a heated discussion topic before.

That means the OP made a choice using title and direction of his post.

 

 

Delmore pushed hard for EP which is why he was given public credit.   And some made assumptions that credit included "discovering EP" which of course he did with his contacts (and the organizations).   Delmore has been in the organization as a player and a staff member for how long now?   I also corrected some posters that it wasn't Delmore that discovered him, but rather took a phone call from an ex staff member to come take a look.   Which he did.  

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2 hours ago, Timråfan said:

This is definately the best offseason I’ve seen here. 

When JB arrived the fanbase and team was kind of in shambles and a heavy cloud of disappointment hovered over us.   Clauses up like an iron tank with little choices i get why they organization decided to re-tool.   What he never gets credit for, is going out and finding the best possible Luongo/Schnieder replacements right away in Miller and Lack.   We'd be doomed from the hop without it, tried hard to get the best forward too in Iginla, instead settled on Vrbata the second best.    Not that i felt we were going far but it's hockey and you never know.   We bounced back hard in 2014.   Of course it wasn't enough but that off season and that draft ... wowzers.     Probably the second best really under the metrics we were running at the time.  

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3 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said:

While I generally agree with your logic, calculations, stats and angle it still does not negate my statement of fact that only 5 players out of the entire 54 that Uncle Jim has drafted over the last eight years are on this teams regular roster.   That is simply the point I am making, so any woulda, shoulda, coulda, re-dicing and slicing of stats cannot change that TRUE FACT !  But with that said, i share your hope and optimism that more will make the team one day.

So...ten percent on the roster.  Add Pearson it's a FACT that McAan was drafted and Pearson is on the roster as a result.   That makes it over 10%.   Ignoring the quality of the guys who are on the roster, we've also had many guys get games.  Lind, Rathbone, OJ etc.   Podz is going to make it six, and JB already stated that OJ will be in the starting lineup if he gains his weight back he lost during Covid.   That's 8 players as fact.   Gadjs has a decent chance too.   Forsling is also playing in the NHL which is a FACT.   That's 9.   We traded him sure.   For what i don't even remember but is that connected to an actual roster player?   Also got Motte for Vanek.   That's 10.   Ok.  Instead look at it this way.   Aside from Horvat, it's a FACT that every single player on our roster, as of right now, is all JB.   When has this ever happened before in the history of our team?  

 

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10 hours ago, Solinar said:

 

Motte came in for Vrbata, Dickenson with a 3rd.  Pearson was for Gudbrandson.  Highmore was for Gaudette.  Miller and Garland were both gained with first round picks, the latter with the 9 oa.

 

But you have to look a little deeper.  Gudbranson and Sutter were both brought in with prospects/picks that could probably have garnered better players.  Forsling was traded for Clendening.  Vey was also the result of a 2nd.  So when I critique our pro scouting, it comes with an eye that the amateur scouting department has done a fabulous job establishing value and valuable players with the picks it has been allowed to use.  Whereas trading those picks has resulted in a bunch of meh players, most of which we usually have to walk away from in some form or another.  And we won't get into UFA signings that have handcuffed us and cost us in either cap space or assets to move.

  Our GM's major strength is his drafting, and he has a problem with trading his most valuable strength.  His major weaknesses is UFA and at the beginning of his tenure, trading for shortcuts in the teambuilding process.  All of these have been discussed ad nauseum.  And to ignore them on the basis of one thing is to not see the whole picture.  Our player pipeline is awesome, when you consider almost 50 years of futility to the point of Benning becoming GM.  So, yes, he's our best drafting GM in team history, but that's kind of sad considering how long it took to get someone to fix that.  And as we open a new window of competitiveness, we are constrained by the cap, once again, have to sign players to bridge contracts instead of locking them in long term, and still have questionable depth, which we could have had more of, if we had just ....drafted and stuck to the process.

  I hope we do well this year, but looking at the totality of the club, we've sacrificed the future once again, for the now, and although we have a bright now...it'll collapse if we don't keep drafting, and drafting well, and we can't afford to keep bleeding as many picks as we do, for what we do gain.

So far, i've never seen four of drafting as good as Milfords.   It's possible but unlikely, that we could take any four consecutive years of JB drafting in 20 years and say he did better.    Close though.   It's doubtful he will get more games then Milfords picks did - and he also traded a perrenial 50 goal scorer away he drafted in Rick Vaive so JB for sure isn't the only one who has made mistakes with some of his picks and nothing like that (yet thank god), but some fans might say we did just fine with that trade anyways given the fan favourite that came back.   Over 10,000 games from four years of drafting is pretty freaking unbelievable but it happened.   That's 2500 games PER draft lol.    Crazy actually.   Where JB MIGHT end up ahead is the quality of his picks, but even that might be tough compared to Burke.  Two Sedins, Kesler, Bieksa.    That's also a tough one to decide yet.    EP, QHs, BB, Demko might do it.  Might do it.     JB for sure made up for 9 years of crap drafting in a row in short order.    Even when you consider ADP or average draft position (of course a bad team should get good picks).   EP is already considered the best 5th picked from 2010-2020.   Horvat the best 9th (thank you MG!) , QHs an honourable mention but he's got Schieffle to pass at 7...  Hogs and Demko awesome picks.     All i can say, is we don't really have much more room as of right now in our lineup, our placeholders are almost gone (the guys like OEL, Myers, Hamonic not the same as Beagle/AR)  and this year needs to be the start of a run of playoffs that goes on for 8-9 years.   

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Back to the OP.  That was a lot of work and thanks.   JB tenure for sure is all about his picks more then anything so far.   Next year i expect Hogs, EP, Demko, Pearson (McAan), QHs, Podz, OJ/Rathbone and of course BB to all play key roles.   We've been a little spoiled (as we for sure should be) with three Calder finalists and one winner in a row, then Hogs plus OJ/Rathbone's tryouts.  I have high hopes for Gadj to make the team and of course Podz will.  Yet another year where we have one or two rookies making a difference.   Demko did.   QHs did.  EP did.  BB did. So did Hogs.  So did AG his second year at least..  This is coming to an end though.   Miller and OEL also should be added to this list same with Garland.  Same with Pearson (McAan).   We BEAT the odds when any of these guys play 200 games for us or at least meet them as far as firsts go.  

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, DSVII said:

image.thumb.png.52ae1c5ca77263163cddb60dbdda9211.pngYou beat me to the punch @knucklehead91;) good work, was going to do a similar post. I have nothing more to add on the drafting side under Benning, it's been the best the Canucks have experienced in a while and the data shows it. 

 

I'll add some data visualizations based off of the same hockey DB site you used to illustrate this point. This is taking all the data from 2003 to the 2020 drafts along with career points up to the 2021 season.

 

Link to the Dashboard

 

Note: For the purposes of this dashboard, roster players = 56 NHL games played, Elite/Impact players = 0.5 career PPG for Forwards, 0.4 career PPG for Defense, and 70+ Starts for goalies

 

This is purely drafting, not asset management. So players who have succeeded after being traded by JB will be credited to him (i.e Gustav Forsling) and players who have made the 56 game threshold are counted (i.e Tryamkin)

 

There has also been some issues with duplicate names (two Erik Karlssons.) so keep that in mind if you see anything off. 

 

Benning's Draft Profile

image.thumb.png.c651505ee691164c45097c4ef341db83.png


 

 

A quick visual representation of our draft classes from Nonis to JB

image.png.f856e4958d82bd23833558b5699999a5.png

 

 

Since 2014, trades aside, Benning has drafted the second most NHL ready players out of any GM (Whether he should have kept them vs trade them is a discussion for another thread). Notice who is at the top ironically haha (this includes his boston and edmonton tenures)

image.thumb.png.ddd1c10916ec4ddbc276e960ba79a4ae.png

To highlight how bad we've been historically, consider where we sit in terms of NHL players drafted since 2003

 

image.thumb.png.52ae1c5ca77263163cddb60dbdda9211.png

 

Now see how JB has closed that drafting gap since his tenure started (Ie. This is why team rebuild has been asking him to acquire more picks!)

 

image.thumb.png.77854cac178eca625fa68439c966bc91.png

 

 

And for fun, this is what Stevie Y's profile looks like

 

Stevie Y's profile in Tampa

image.thumb.png.72438686124ab703f5ddcd2d7c8cd7c7.png

 

 

There you are!! Haha i was wondering if you were still working on that post. Your presentation is way f***ing nicer. I need to take some courses on graphing and stuff.

damn thats some really nice work you’ve done

Edited by knucklehead91
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9 hours ago, lmm said:

actually I find Canuck fans obsession with the leafs a sign that we are a bunch of losers

If you wish to self identify as a loser, that is your prerogative; but don't include me as part of "we"

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8 hours ago, Timråfan said:

Do you really think it's better to put fuel to the fire?

Why not take a middle approach instead of instigate.

If he had chosen to be mature instead of a reaction, everyone had enjoyed his post. 

Everyone did enjoy the post. You are the only one that reacted immature with an attack on his post. Here you are immature again unable to accept you are wrong.  

Edited by vancan2233
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8 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said:

While I generally agree with your logic, calculations, stats and angle it still does not negate my statement of fact that only 5 players out of the entire 54 that Uncle Jim has drafted over the last eight years are on this teams regular roster.   That is simply the point I am making, so any woulda, shoulda, coulda, re-dicing and slicing of stats cannot change that TRUE FACT !  But with that said, i share your hope and optimism that more will make the team one day.

what is the point of your point? What are you trying to be logic about?  You trying to say all 54 was lost but 5 players? No return was gained? 

 

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