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A few thoughts on the Cap, EP, Hughes and how to make the Canucks a Cup contender and not just a playoff team.

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Arrow 1983

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With the Dickinson signing today the Cap situation has become much clearer. I see two roads that JB can still take. One leads them to a playoff spot and a possible first round victory but not much further another leads the Canucks to a true cup contending possibility.

 

The Cap situation Currently, 21 players signed with 16.364 mill in cap (Ferland on LTIR) to sign EP and Hughes according to Capfriendly numbers.

 

Miller _______  Boeser 

Hoglander Horvat Garland

Pearson Dickinson Pods

Motte Sutter Highmore

________  750,000 (league Min)

 

_______   Hamonic 

OEL Poolman

Rathbone Myers

Juolevi Schenn

 

Demko

Halak

 

If JB wants to be a Playoff team next year and nothing else he could just sign Hughes and EP to 8mill contracts each to how ever long they will sign for. Or any 2 combinations that add up to 16 mill i.e. 1 with longer term 1 with a shorter term. I believe this is not what he will do and there might be a different plan in play. Moreover, I believe there is good reason not to just sign Hughes and EP to Max contracts as possible. 

 

The first problem I see with maxing out the cap space this year on EP and Hughes is future cap Issues. Next year Boeser contract will be up and there will be no money remaining to sign him. If you look at the current roster next year the only true dollars that come off are Motte 1.225 mill and Sutter 1.125 mill. everyone else has league min contracts. If the Canucks replace Motte and Sutter with league min contracts the savings are roughly 0.85 mill. Boeser is making 5.875 mill this season and is due Minimum 7.5 mill next season as a qualifying offer or 1.625 mill raise. ( yes it is possible that he signs long term with a cap hit lower than 7.5mill however he will be 25 years old and on a 8 year contract it would expire when he is 32 years old most players would consider these their prime years). Other players coming up for contracts next year are Rathbone and Juolevi. One of these 2 are going to make the team as a top 6 d-man I would guess which ever one that is will have a good argument for a raise. The NHL has said that the cap could go up next season by 1 million dollars. That would leave the Canucks 1.85 million to Re-sign Boeser (to a raise) and Rathbone and OJ at the same time losing Sutter and Motte for League minimum players. (They also have to factor in 1.5mill for Halak bonuses that will carry over from this year and any performance bonuses from ELC contracts) So I have to ask would that be a better team next year. 

 

Problem Number 2. This deals with what the team expects. JB has already mention they want to be a playoff team. TG has said that is the goal. But is making the playoffs enough to 1) keep their jobs and 2) keep the fan base happy. I have looked at the current rosters of our division very deeply and I would argue I have looked at them fairly. My conclusion is that Vegas will most likely take first and Edm and Van will fight it out for 2nd. If I am correct it wont matter who takes 2nd because that would be the first round match up in the playoffs. So the Question I propose is can Van beat Edm. If so The Canucks move on to the Second round to play either Col or Vegas (most likely) which I would argue that it is a High probability of defeat. A second round lose to Vegas or Col might be acceptable. But what if they lose in the first round to Edm. What if they Don't finish 2nd or 3rd but take a wild card spot instead and have to play Vegas or Col in the first round. Is losing in the first round acceptable

 

The Second option.

 

I like many of you heard what EP had to say about winning and going far into the playoffs every year. Unlike a lot of people instead of jumping onto twitter and reacting quickly I thought about that comment and the timing of it. The first thing I thought is maybe he wants to see where the team is headed in term of a contract a shorter one would make sense. I looked at it as a player might look at it. If he signs a 3 year deal he is 1 year from UFA he could ask for a trade or just take the Qualifying offer which would then lead him to UFA. It could be a tactic to get the team to sign him long term for more money as they would be buying UFA years. But than I asked myself is this how EP would think is he trying to twist JBs arm. I don't believe that's EP. I think he and Hughes are going to take deals beneficial for the team aka leave money on the table. It is simple math, the less they take the better the team can be. 

 

First, if EP and Hughes sign for 7 mill each this year ( I am not saying this is what I think the final number will be) There will be 2 mill more to help sign Boeser OJ and Rathbone next season without having to get worse.

 

Second, signing for a mill less each this year also makes them better this year. That 2 mill becomes 2.75 mill or even 3.50 mill this year remaining in cap actually a little more. In the Beginning of this topic I showed you the current roster and cap remaining at 16.364. 16.364-14.00= 2.364+0.75(1 league min contract)=3.114 or 3.114+0.725 (Highmore contract)=3.839

 

So why does these 2 numbers matter 3.114 mill or 3.839 mill to me they represent players either on at $3 mill or 2 @ roughly $1.9 million each. 

 

I am predicting that JB is not done yet the UFA market still has some very decent players available if he is able to get EP and Hughes signed for less and they can see the value of it. JB might go after 1 or 2 more players still. 

 

My final roster prediction. Cap remaining $39,341

 

Miller EP (7.00 mil) Boeser 

Hoglander Horvat Garland

Pearson Dickinson Pods

Parise (1.9 mil) Bozak (1.9 mil) Sutter

Motte

 

Hughes (7.00mil) Hamonic 

OEL Poolman

Rathbone Myers

Juolevi Schenn

 

Demko

Halak

 

One last point I am not completely sold yet if Sutter will be on the opening night roster. His Contract amount $1.125 mil is the exact dollar value that a team can completely bury which also makes me believe that JB has insured him self some extra wiggle room if he wants to sign further players. Highmore could easily be the 13th forward at 0.725k saving the team a extra 400k and Motto could take the 12th position.

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5 minutes ago, MattJVD said:

We also have the Luongo recapture coming off the books: So our dead cap goes from 3.5 mil to 2.4 mil next offseason. That plus the rumoured 1 mil cap increase will take care of re-signing Boeser.

Halaks 1.5mill bonus will eat up half of that

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10 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

Halaks 1.5mill bonus will eat up half of that

We also have ~650k of bonus carry-over applied to the current season. So Halak's bonus will only be a net increase of ~850k. Depends entirely on what bonuses Podkolzin and Hoglander earn (and how much, if any, cap space can be accrued this year to cover that) but re-signing Boeser at 7.5 is doable.

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5 minutes ago, MattJVD said:

We also have ~650k of bonus carry-over applied to the current season. So Halak's bonus will only be a net increase of ~850k. Depends entirely on what bonuses Podkolzin and Hoglander earn (and how much, if any, cap space can be accrued this year to cover that) but re-signing Boeser at 7.5 is doable.

all of it cancels out Holtby Virtanen buy increases plus Halak bonuses = roughly Lou recapture penalty.

 

Performance bonus carry over from last year = roughly Performance bonus carry overs from this year

 

This is why I didn't get into it. What it means might be a 200k-300k difference I thought it was kind of generally known 

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36 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

With the Dickinson signing today the Cap situation has become much clearer. I see two roads that JB can still take. One leads them to a playoff spot and a possible first round victory but not much further another leads the Canucks to a true cup contending possibility.

 

The Cap situation Currently, 21 players signed with 16.364 mill in cap (Ferland on LTIR) to sign EP and Hughes according to Capfriendly numbers.

 

Miller _______  Boeser 

Hoglander Horvat Garland

Pearson Dickinson Pods

Motte Sutter Highmore

________  750,000 (league Min)

 

_______   Hamonic 

OEL Poolman

Rathbone Myers

Juolevi Schenn

 

Demko

Halak

 

If JB wants to be a Playoff team next year and nothing else he could just sign Hughes and EP to 8mill contracts each to how ever long they will sign for. Or any 2 combinations that add up to 16 mill i.e. 1 with longer term 1 with a shorter term. I believe this is not what he will do and there might be a different plan in play. Moreover, I believe there is good reason not to just sign Hughes and EP to Max contracts as possible. 

 

The first problem I see with maxing out the cap space this year on EP and Hughes is future cap Issues. Next year Boeser contract will be up and there will be no money remaining to sign him. If you look at the current roster next year the only true dollars that come off are Motte 1.225 mill and Sutter 1.125 mill. everyone else has league min contracts. If the Canucks replace Motte and Sutter with league min contracts the savings are roughly 0.85 mill. Boeser is making 5.875 mill this season and is due Minimum 7.5 mill next season as a qualifying offer or 1.625 mill raise. ( yes it is possible that he signs long term with a cap hit lower than 7.5mill however he will be 25 years old and on a 8 year contract it would expire when he is 32 years old most players would consider these their prime years). Other players coming up for contracts next year are Rathbone and Juolevi. One of these 2 are going to make the team as a top 6 d-man I would guess which ever one that is will have a good argument for a raise. The NHL has said that the cap could go up next season by 1 million dollars. That would leave the Canucks 1.85 million to Re-sign Boeser (to a raise) and Rathbone and OJ at the same time losing Sutter and Motte for League minimum players. (They also have to factor in 1.5mill for Halak bonuses that will carry over from this year and any performance bonuses from ELC contracts) So I have to ask would that be a better team next year. 

 

Problem Number 2. This deals with what the team expects. JB has already mention they want to be a playoff team. TG has said that is the goal. But is making the playoffs enough to 1) keep their jobs and 2) keep the fan base happy. I have looked at the current rosters of our division very deeply and I would argue I have looked at them fairly. My conclusion is that Vegas will most likely take first and Edm and Van will fight it out for 2nd. If I am correct it wont matter who takes 2nd because that would be the first round match up in the playoffs. So the Question I propose is can Van beat Edm. If so The Canucks move on to the Second round to play either Col or Vegas (most likely) which I would argue that it is a High probability of defeat. A second round lose to Vegas or Col might be acceptable. But what if they lose in the first round to Edm. What if they Don't finish 2nd or 3rd but take a wild card spot instead and have to play Vegas or Col in the first round. Is losing in the first round acceptable

 

The Second option.

 

I like many of you heard what EP had to say about winning and going far into the playoffs every year. Unlike a lot of people instead of jumping onto twitter and reacting quickly I thought about that comment and the timing of it. The first thing I thought is maybe he wants to see where the team is headed in term of a contract a shorter one would make sense. I looked at it as a player might look at it. If he signs a 3 year deal he is 1 year from UFA he could ask for a trade or just take the Qualifying offer which would then lead him to UFA. It could be a tactic to get the team to sign him long term for more money as they would be buying UFA years. But than I asked myself is this how EP would think is he trying to twist JBs arm. I don't believe that's EP. I think he and Hughes are going to take deals beneficial for the team aka leave money on the table. It is simple math, the less they take the better the team can be. 

 

First, if EP and Hughes sign for 7 mill each this year ( I am not saying this is what I think the final number will be) There will be 2 mill more to help sign Boeser OJ and Rathbone next season without having to get worse.

 

Second, signing for a mill less each this year also makes them better this year. That 2 mill becomes 2.75 mill or even 3.50 mill this year remaining in cap actually a little more. In the Beginning of this topic I showed you the current roster and cap remaining at 16.364. 16.364-14.00= 2.364+0.75(1 league min contract)=3.114 or 3.114+0.725 (Highmore contract)=3.839

 

So why does these 2 numbers matter 3.114 mill or 3.839 mill to me they represent players either on at $3 mill or 2 @ roughly $1.9 million each. 

 

I am predicting that JB is not done yet the UFA market still has some very decent players available if he is able to get EP and Hughes signed for less and they can see the value of it. JB might go after 1 or 2 more players still. 

 

My final roster prediction. Cap remaining $39,341

 

Miller EP (7.00 mil) Boeser 

Hoglander Horvat Garland

Pearson Dickinson Pods

Parise (1.9 mil) Bozak (1.9 mil) Sutter

Motte

 

Hughes (7.00mil) Hamonic 

OEL Poolman

Rathbone Myers

Juolevi Schenn

 

Demko

Halak

 

One last point I am not completely sold yet if Sutter will be on the opening night roster. His Contract amount $1.125 mil is the exact dollar value that a team can completely bury which also makes me believe that JB has insured him self some extra wiggle room if he wants to sign further players. Highmore could easily be the 13th forward at 0.725k saving the team a extra 400k and Motto could take the 12th position.

Solid post.

 

Will respond a bit more in depth when I have time but just one minor correction:

 

The Canucks will actually have closer to 16.6 million in cap space today sign Petey and Hughes.

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With the little cash we have left over we should go looking for a depth forward, even just a 13th forward or center who can play in case one of our top-4 guys get injured. We also still lack size in our bottom-6 compared to the heavy teams playing in the playoffs.

 

There's some cheap quick 1 year UFA guys out there, or JB could look into it a bit more seriously. This team really needs a Pat Maroon-type player. Ritchie was out there for a while and IMO would have been a good fit but just a bit too costly at the moment.

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11 minutes ago, Patel Bure said:

Solid post.

 

Will respond a bit more in depth when I have time but just one minor correction:

 

The Canucks will actually have closer to 16.6 million in cap space today sign Petey and Hughes.

wow lets argue about small numbers

 

You .236k 

 

@MattJVD 200k-300k

 

these are really petty arguments  

 

Plus I'm sticking with what cap friendly says 21 man roster 16,364,341 remaining Ferland on LTIR

 

Edited by Arrow 1983
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I have been on here for 16-plus years.  This page is filled with speculative stuff like what we will look like in two to three years.  Who cares?  We have to get through this coming season and that's it.  Can we compete with a full roster?  Has the team become more competitive on paper?  How about jump on the Canucks train and enjoy the ride!

Edited by The Colt 45s
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To make it short, you would like Pettersson and Hughes to take a team friendly contract so you can lowball Parise and Bozak and sign them. Not gonna happen after all those 9million contracts handed out around the league. Pettersson's comment basically confirms he won't be doing the team any favors. Basically he is going to take a short term contract to see where the team goes. Most of the time when people make these comments years ahead they are setting up for their eventual departure. (I hope not and he flourishes in Vancouver, we'll see)

 

I was hoping Benning lowballs Garland and Dickinson on their contracts. Didn't happen, so I really can't see how he can lowball Pettersson and Hughes, our presumably superstars. 

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When the likes of Darnel Nurse sign over 9x8 how the hell can JB negotiate with Quinn's agent? One of many defenseman overpayments this year. 

Quinn will match or exceed Makars contract, don't even to try and think they will settle for less. 

That leaves how much for EP? 

Pencils need to be sharped asap. 

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2 hours ago, Vancan2021 said:

When the likes of Darnel Nurse sign over 9x8 how the hell can JB negotiate with Quinn's agent? One of many defenseman overpayments this year. 

Quinn will match or exceed Makars contract, don't even to try and think they will settle for less. 

That leaves how much for EP? 

Pencils need to be sharped asap. 

I think if that’s the case, They’ll trade Hughes. There’s no way they’ll get EP40 under contract for 3-4/season. 
 

 We  have about 13,500,000 in cap right now. 

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53 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

 

Quinn will not get Makar money.  Last year's Calder winner and the recent season's finalist for Norris is a better player than Quinn.  He has more developing to do to play at Makar's level.

That’s why I believe he should only get 6.5-7.5 on maybe a 2yr deal. 

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Just wondering,

 

With 16.6 million in cap space that will be available (Ferland LTIR + few jabronie’s being dropped to Abbotsford), perhaps both players would agree to a 8.3 x 8 year deal?  Long term future secured + a good blend between getting paid big money while taking a slight long term hometown discount in order to help the Canucks build a winner).

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9 hours ago, The Colt 45s said:

I have been on here for 16-plus years.  This page is filled with speculative stuff like what we will look like in two to three years.  Who cares?  We have to get through this coming season and that's it.  Can we compete with a full roster?  Has the team become more competitive on paper?  How about jump on the Canucks train and enjoy the ride!

 

Future Schmuture.   Thank's Jim!

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9 hours ago, Vancan2021 said:

Quinn will match or exceed Makars contract, don't even to try and think they will settle for less. 

Why? Makar was better in every conceivable way than Hughes was last season. If Hughes signs for as much or more than Makar someone needs to be fired.

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10 hours ago, The Colt 45s said:

I have been on here for 16-plus years.  This page is filled with speculative stuff like what we will look like in two to three years.  Who cares?  We have to get through this coming season and that's it.  Can we compete with a full roster?  Has the team become more competitive on paper?  How about jump on the Canucks train and enjoy the ride!

Don't venture on the Canucks reddit.  

 

They like to forecast far into the future and worry about hypotheticals that take the worst case scenarios as a given.  

 

If we got McDavid gifted to us, they wouldn't be excited for next year but would instead choose to worry about having to resign him in four years. 

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