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Elias Pettersson | Quinn Hughes - Contract Discussion Thread

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29 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Benning needed to find a way to lock up Petey in the 7-8 year range for around 9.5 mil and sign Hughes to a 3 year bridge for about 6.5 mil. He did not get it done.

I'm sure that was his first option but I fully believe EP would not consider anything over 3 year and that was his priority rather than the final dollars.

 

Of course it would be nice to seal EP Long term, but gotta respect a player who accepts nothing less than winning and demands that standard for the entire franchise.

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1 minute ago, J-P said:

I'm sure that was his first option but I fully believe EP would not consider anything over 3 year and that was his priority rather than the final dollars.

 

Of course it would be nice to seal EP Long term, but gotta respect a player who accepts nothing less than winning and demands that standard for the entire franchise.

Exactly like Point did in TBay.  We have a great team, and (with Petey and Quinn now on board) will win a Cup in those three years.  

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On 8/31/2021 at 3:25 PM, The_Rocket said:

here are my Petey estimates:

 

8 years @ 9.6 million

7 years @ 9.3 million 

6 years @ 8.9 million

5 years @ 8.4 million

4 years @ 7.6 million

3 years @ 7.25 million

 

i think the most likely scenario is either 3 or 6 years, based on Petey’s confidence in the team, the uncertainty of how the cap will increase over time, and how much petey thinks he will improve 

explanation:

 

I made a contract estimator on excel and ran different scenarios for what Pettersson’s contract might look like on different terms. Here are my assumptions:

A 3 year deal is 7.25 million AAV based on Barzal comparable + a little bit more due to Pettersson’s status and reputation. 

UFA years (years 5-8 of any contract he signs) are worth $11.5 million per year in future dollars. That’s around ~$10.5 million in today’s dollars. I used players like draisaitl, point, Tavares, toews, courtourier, kopitar, and eichel to derive this number. His UFA years could be more expensive depending on inflation and how close to those players he and the Canucks believes he will be when he is 26 years old. 

To estimate salary cap increase, I used 2 calculations. One assumes a 3% increase per year, the other assumes a flat $1 million increase per year. I estimate out 4 years (to
Pettersson’s first UFA year) to adjust his future dollars into real terms. Then I took the average of the two calculations for my model. 

I assumed that Petey’s final RFA year (the 4th season from now) is worth his Qualifying Offer on a 3 year bridge at 7.25 million. The QO would be 120% of the AAV of the bridge deal (assuming backloaded), or $8.4 million. I weighted this value into all calculations of 4 years or more. 

Finally, right before posting this, I Ran kaprizov’s rumoured $9x5 contract through the model using all the same assumptions. The only thing I changed was the number of RFA years (kaprizov only has 3 left, compared to Patterson’s 4). If we assume kaprizov is a comparable, then I found his new contract perfectly fits my model when adjusting for RFA years remaining. 

So I plugged in all the different term options and here are my results. 

Please note that my assumptions are based on a known value of a 3 year deal, so I’m not able to use the model to calculate 1 or 2 year deals.

Following up on my estimates from a month ago, I had originally assumed petey would sign 7.25 on a 3 year. If it is 7.7, then that would increase his AAV on a long term. 
 

min top of that, I have adjusted my model to better reflect the value of ages 26-29 compared to ages 30-34. 
 

based on his AAV on his bridge deal, I am guessing an 8 year Pettersson contract would come in at 10.5-11 million per season, very similar what Eichel signed for (when you account for inflation) 

 

I think it’s safe to say the Canucks are getting 2.5-3 million dollars in surplus value out of Pettersson for the next 3 years, assuming he does not get better or worse than he was the past 3 seasons

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54 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

Extra lap for every million you signed for. 

Pfffft  ... would be just like scratching an itch for Petey.   Remember that skinny kid at his rookie training camp who lapped Stecher and Virtanen?

 

Hughes?  Hmmm -  anyone who can consistently handle 2 1/2 minute shifts shouldn't be troubled by a bag skate

 

 

 

Edited by Googlie
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36 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

The signings a little meh for me, the bridge sets up Petey to get paid in the 11 million range in three years and the Hughes contract brings him to UFA at the age of 27 where he might potentially leave to play with his other two brothers. 

 

Benning needed to find a way to lock up Petey in the 7-8 year range for around 9.5 mil and sign Hughes to a 3 year bridge for about 6.5 mil. He did not get it done. Our cup window is likely set at 6 years from today, hopefully we can get the job done in that time.    

The NHL is no longer a league where teams keep star players for their entire careers. Players like the Sedin twins would be considered to be a total anomaly in today's NHL. 6 years for Hughes is a long time and Petey clearly wants to see where things go after the three years, and as a rising star in the league, why wouldn't he? He wants to leverage his talents as best he can for the benefit of his career. 

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2 minutes ago, KoreanHockeyFan said:

The NHL is no longer a league where teams keep star players for their entire careers. Players like the Sedin twins would be considered to be a total anomaly in today's NHL. 6 years for Hughes is a long time and Petey clearly wants to see where things go after the three years, and as a rising star in the league, why wouldn't he? He wants to leverage his talents as best he can for the benefit of his career. 

Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Getzlaf, Stamkos, Bergeron, Kane, Toews et al say "Hi"

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4 minutes ago, Googlie said:

Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Getzlaf, Stamkos, Bergeron, Kane, Toews et al say "Hi"

I consider those players to be in a different generation. The culture of young players being the forefront of NHL teams has only been a recent thing, but it's come to the forefront quick. 

 

EDIT: you can thank Dubas for that.

Edited by KoreanHockeyFan
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6 minutes ago, Googlie said:

Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Getzlaf, Stamkos, Bergeron, Kane, Toews et al say "Hi"

Every single player mentioned has won Stanley Cup(s) Big difference in my opinion, that is the end goal for the players I would hope, but $$$ makes them greedy too I suppose

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55 minutes ago, derr12 said:

I only disagree with the joulevi dollar figure. Unless he turns it around he’s a replacement level player. He should be paid as one. 
 

rathbone looks like he may project to a top4 D, might command a little more.

I agree with you. I'm speculating on Juolevi on a salary projection. If he doesn't develop to that level, just insert someone else's name in on that number.

 

Rathbone, also agree with you, but I'm hoping that the fact that he's a RFA after this season, that we will be able to bridge him in that dollar range.

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12 minutes ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

It doesn't appear it's quite done yet.

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if the team wanted to get them both in Vancouver and tested so no quarantine before making the official announcement. That way they can both be present and take questions for the press conference.

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