Are the Canucks elite in terms of converting draft picks into long term roster players?

[Patel Bure]

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by Patel Bure
Showing that all/most successful teams go through a long stretch where they either miss the playoffs entirely, or are non-factors for a significant stretch of time. I posted Tampa, LA, Chicago, Boston, and Colorado here (I think?)

[Timråfan]

4 hours ago, Patel Bure said:

Even if we exclude Horvat, that’s still one long term full-time roster player per year on average.  7 players in the 7 seasons that I highlighted.  That still equals or surpasses Tampa and Colorado in terms of picks converting to legitimate roster players over the time spent rebuilding. 
 

Are the Canucks, as an organization, comparable to where Tampa and Colorado are right now?  Of course not.  However, it goes without saying that we began our rebuild much later than both of those teams....and so do course those teams are further along the path than we are.  All I’m saying is that from a drafting and developing standpoint, we appear to be on similar paths as them.  Time will tell if guys like Pettersson, Hughes, Boeser, Podkolzin, Demko, etc., become as good as Colorado and Tampa’s core.

You can’t include Rathbone that can turn into the next Pouliot when the pressure on his shouldrs mount and Horvat as been said.

 

What we can see is that Utica was a disaster.

Only goalies like Demko and Marky came out undamaged(I think).

The rest had probably any creativity washed away by the kill or be killed mentality it seems that Benning wanted there.

 

when I joined a lot of the discussion was that we had a lot of young players that would turn into NHL players and that Utica was very good for the players development.

Benning is the master drafter… 

 

So, how many players have gone the Utica-route to play for the Canucks?
Don’t count goalies because they don’t have the same conditions.

So the only way Benning made it out good is that he had the oppurtunity to draft early and had the guts to draft small guys.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by Timråfan

[Wanless]

3 hours ago, Patel Bure said:

 

Are the Canucks elite in terms of converting draft picks into long term roster players?

 

While it’s likely a valid criticism that the Vancouver Canucks have bled picks during Benning’s tenure, the question is, “to what extent has these bled picks actually hindered us?”  Based on my research, and in comparison to both Tampa Bay and Colorado (two teams that are generally highly regarded as having drafted and developed prospects at an elite level), I think the Canucks have actually done quite well.  They appear to have outperformed Colorado (who were more reliant on first rounders during their rebuild), and appear to be on par with Tampa Bay during their rebuilding years.

 

In terms of converting draft picks into current full-time NHL players, the Canucks seem to be superior to Colorado, and appear to be on par with Tampa Bay:

 

Canucks = 8 picks converted into roster players from 2013-2019.  7 seasons.

2013: Horvat
2014: Demko
2015: Boeser
2017: Pettersson + Rathbone
2018: Hughes
2019: Podkolzin + Hoglander

 

Tampa = 8 picks converted into current roster players from 2007-2015 (9 seasons)

 

2015:  Anthony Cirelli (3rd round)
2014: Brayden Point (3rd round)
2012: Andrei Vasilevsky 
2011:  Nikita Kucherov + Ondrej Palat
2009: Victor Hedman
2008: Steven Stamkos
2007: Alex Killorn

 

Avalanche = 8 picks converted into current roster players from 2011-2019.

 

2019:  Bowen Byram + Alex Newhook (possibly)

2017:  Cale Makar + Conor Timmins

2016:  Tyson Jost

2015:  Mikko Rantanen

2013:  Nathan Mackinnon

2011:  Gabriel Landeskog
 

Although Horvat wasn’t drafted by Benning, he was developed under this management regime.  Although it’s premature, I would also argue that Klimovich would *already* be selected in the first round in a 2021 redraft (and yes, I’m admitting that it’s *way* too early to do a redraft projection here.....but still).

 

Anyways, please let me know if you see anything missing from my analysis, or if you see any faux pas.

Youre a brave man

 

Unfortunately there are people in here that think every pick should be a roster player, and every player we trade away or waive are the next version of cam neely, or that he has to fix everything all at once. 

 

Benning has done well bringing in talent to the team for sure through the draft and trades

 

This season should see an improvement in offence and hopefully not a decline in defence 

 

next offseason i could see the team making a big hockey trade from one of the strengths shown this year to shore up the d group a bit better

 

Steps towards success each year, building piece by piece

[wallstreetamigo]

24 minutes ago, Patel Bure said:

Agreed that the Canucks made a mistake in initially rushing Virtanen.  In my opinion, ownership and management made an ill advised move to try and market both Virtanen and McCann to the fans due to the success that Horvat had a year prior (i.e. stepping in and having a terrific rookie year).  However, management smartened up quite quickly and sent Virtanen down almost immediately. I also do NOT agree with you that the Canucks ignored Virtanen's character problems.  They tried to make him pay his dues in the AHL, and made him earn his ice time while on the big club.  Virtanen was punished whenever appropriate, and saw very limited ice-time in the bubble due to showing up out of shape.  Ultimately, it's why "party boys" such as Hutton, Virtanen, and Gaudette are no longer here.  

 

Agreed with you that Gaudette was never a good 3rd line defensive center, but he apparently did not feel comfortable playing on the wing (although he might be more comfortable there now). Also - Gaudette's game was so bad defensively, that his presence on either of the top two lines would be able to be justified.  Gaudette needed more time to develop his defensive game so that he could take on those top 6 roles. Maybe we does better in Chicago who knows.  As far as Tryamkin goes, he was never told to "eff off" when he wanted to come back.  Where are you getting this from?  The truth is, that the term and money simply didn't work for both sides, and it's even likely that Tryamkin had no intention of returning to North America at all (and if he did, why wouldn't he just sign a one year deal in KHL?).  In all likelihood, Tryamkin was using the Canucks salary offer as a negotiating tool.    I agree with you that Tryamkin may have been mismanaged here (due to the coaching staff), but Gaudette and Virtanen were handled in the correct manner for the most part.

With Tryamkin, the money didn’t work for BENNING due to his many bad contracts for veterans. Tryamkin’s ask was pretty low according to his agent. And Benning agreed to it but only if Tryamkin would wait until he could dump some cap. Can’t really blame him for not wanting to wait. Benning had him do that the year before iirc and he ended up almost not getting a KHL deal. He signed a 2 year deal in the KHL as a result and for one reason. It would take him right to UFA status. Benning burned that bridge for no reason really and Tryamkin said ok if you don’t want me I am not going through this as an rfa next year. I may as well wait and sign somewhere else that actually values me.

 

With Gaudette, his offensive skill was more than enough to suggest a fit on a scoring line. Only Benning and Green think top 6 players have to be great defensively to play in the top 6. Guys like Patrick Kane would be working at McDonalds now if that was actually true. Trying to force a square peg into a round hole with Gaudette devalued him to the point all they could get was a healthy scratch player, who then immediately got played the rest of the year in the top 6 having not earned it or subsequently done anything with it. I never saw anything to suggest Gaudette said he didn’t like playing the wing. Maybe you have a quote?

[wallstreetamigo]

12 minutes ago, Wanless said:

Youre a brave man

 

Unfortunately there are people in here that think every pick should be a roster player, and every player we trade away or waive are the next version of cam neely, or that he has to fix everything all at once. 

 

Benning has done well bringing in talent to the team for sure through the draft and trades

 

This season should see an improvement in offence and hopefully not a decline in defence 

 

next offseason i could see the team making a big hockey trade from one of the strengths shown this year to shore up the d group a bit better

 

Steps towards success each year, building piece by piece

What in the team results makes you feel they have taken steps toward success every year? Benning just spent an off-season purging all the bad contracts he signed. 

[Patel Bure]

29 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

What in the team results makes you feel they have taken steps toward success every year? Benning just spent an off-season purging all the bad contracts he signed. 

1) Well for one, our moving average of points percentage has typically trended upwards since the 2014/2015 season.  Yes, we took a step back last season, but progression is never a linear process.  Again, study the history of NHL teams that are currently successful.   Look at the Canucks’ history as well.  Were the Canucks immediately “off to the races” after an unexpected peasant surprise in 2006/2007?  What happened a year later?  What about in 1989 after we unexpectedly made the playoffs and pushed the Flames to the brink?

 

2) Those bad contracts (Player Name, Beagle, Roussel, and a few bad contracts even before that) were needed at the time because we were still developing our core and those core players needed to be insulated.  I don’t know how else to explain this.  You either get it or you don’t.  During a rebuilding process, you can’t just throw kids out there into roles that they are too green for since you risk destroying their confidence.  Beagle and Roussel were signed because guys like Gaudette, etc., were quite ready to make the jump.  Player Name was signed because the belief at the time was that Burrows was washed up (truth), while Virtanen was not ready for that type of role (truth).  Ryan Miller was signed because Markstrom needed more games to develop in the farm, while Lack also needed some support.  And so forth.  
 

If you notice however, all/most our bad/transitional contracts were set to expire around the same time (Beagle, Roussel, Player Name, Sutter, Baertschi, etc.) and there was a reason for this:  It was around this time that our management had guesstimated that our core would be assembled and ready to compete.  
 

As far as the Coyotes trade goes, it was a great deal.  We got rid of our transitional contracts a year early, while also adding in a potential long term core player in Garland.  OEL should be an asset for us the first few years and will likely become a liability right around the time Myers leaves us. Meaning?  We will still have essentially one “bad” contract on the books.....which is ok.  Even most elite teams have Atleast one bad contract.  It’s a balancing act unfortunately, and it often comes at the cost of trying to field a competitive team.  The Avs have Erik Johnson.  Tampa had Tyler Johnson.  And so forth.
 

This current Canucks team has a solid foundation and is ready to compete. However, they still need to address their top two RD’s imo.  Everything else is set. Figure out the Top two RD pairings, and this team should become elite once again.  That is the challenge that awaits them now.

Edited October 11, 2021 by Patel Bure

[Viper007]

4 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Also, Tampa in terms of drafting and player development kicks the $&!# out of Benning. It’s not even close.

If you want to play this game, the current Tampa GM didn't draft any of those players.

[VancouverHabitant]

Canucks are above average at drafting players.  Not sure about the "converting" aspect of it.  

 

The only team that I would give the term "elite" to in terms of their drafting would be the Detroit Red Wings of the late 90s/early 2000s and Chicago Blackhawks a bit later.  

 

But that's just me...  I'm not impressed by Colorado having MacKinnon fall into their lap, or Tampa Bay getting Hedman and Stamkos with 1st and 2nd overall picks. Yes, they have made a lot of other great draft choices, but without MacKinnon and Hedman those two teams would be middle of the road playoff teams. 

[shiznak]

Tampa also has Mathieu Joseph and while Tampa didn’t draft Sergachev or Cernek, they did went through their developmental system. Same goes for those guys who went undrafted that played a pivot part for their organization (Johnson, Rutta, Gourde, Paquette).

[Timråfan]

56 minutes ago, Patel Bure said:

 Those bad contracts (Player Name, Beagle, Roussel, and a few bad contracts even before that) were needed at the time because we were still developing our core and those core players needed to be insulated.  I don’t know how else to explain this.  You either get it or you don’t.  During a rebuilding process, you can’t just throw kids out there into roles that they are too green for since you risk destroying their confidence.  Beagle and Roussel were signed because guys like Gaudette, etc., were quite ready to make the jump.  Player Name was signed because the belief at the time was that Burrows was washed up (truth), while Virtanen was not ready for that type of role (truth).  Ryan Miller was signed because Markstrom needed more games to develop in the farm, while Lack also needed some support.  And so forth.  
 

 

So, how many of the core is here from that period? What has the core learnt from the bad contracts? 

We only got those that came into the roster at once and competed at a high level.

All the players that has gone through Utica to ”learn” has either disappeared or struggle hard to be a part of the roster.

 

So if not Abbotsford gets better in developing talent the best way to develop the young players is to let them grow beside men in a real competition instead of the ”fake” in AHL.

Not shield them within the roster.

[wai_lai416]

6 hours ago, Patel Bure said:

 

Are the Canucks elite in terms of converting draft picks into long term roster players?

 

While it’s likely a valid criticism that the Vancouver Canucks have bled picks during Benning’s tenure, the question is, “to what extent has these bled picks actually hindered us?”  Based on my research, and in comparison to both Tampa Bay and Colorado (two teams that are generally highly regarded as having drafted and developed prospects at an elite level), I think the Canucks have actually done quite well.  They appear to have outperformed Colorado (who were more reliant on first rounders during their rebuild), and appear to be on par with Tampa Bay during their rebuilding years.

 

In terms of converting draft picks into current full-time NHL players, the Canucks seem to be superior to Colorado, and appear to be on par with Tampa Bay:

 

Canucks = 8 picks converted into roster players from 2013-2019.  7 seasons.

2013: Horvat
2014: Demko
2015: Boeser
2017: Pettersson + Rathbone
2018: Hughes
2019: Podkolzin + Hoglander

 

Tampa = 8 picks converted into current roster players from 2007-2015 (9 seasons)

 

2015:  Anthony Cirelli (3rd round)
2014: Brayden Point (3rd round)
2012: Andrei Vasilevsky 
2011:  Nikita Kucherov + Ondrej Palat
2009: Victor Hedman
2008: Steven Stamkos
2007: Alex Killorn

 

Avalanche = 8 picks converted into current roster players from 2011-2019.

 

2019:  Bowen Byram + Alex Newhook (possibly)

2017:  Cale Makar + Conor Timmins

2016:  Tyson Jost

2015:  Mikko Rantanen

2013:  Nathan Mackinnon

2011:  Gabriel Landeskog
 

Although Horvat wasn’t drafted by Benning, he was developed under this management regime.  Although it’s premature, I would also argue that Klimovich would *already* be selected in the first round in a 2021 redraft (and yes, I’m admitting that it’s *way* too early to do a redraft projection here.....but still).

 

Anyways, please let me know if you see anything missing from my analysis, or if you see any faux pas.

 

did u decided to skip drouin pacquette nemestikov palat and probably a whole bunch more just to make it look like Vancouver is anywhere even close?

[-AJ-]

Literally spent about 3 hours today researching our draft history under Benning and only got through 2014 and 2015. If I ever get through the rest I'll get back to you.

[Timråfan]

3 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

 Benning and Green think top 6 players have to be great defensively to play in the top 6. Guys like Patrick Kane would be working at McDonalds now if that was actually true. Trying to force a square peg into a round hole with Gaudette devalued him to the point all they could get was a healthy scratch player, who then immediately got played the rest of the year in the top 6 having not earned it or subsequently done anything with it. I never saw anything to suggest Gaudette said he didn’t like playing the wing. Maybe you have a quote?

They’re doing a good job gettin Petey injured and lose creativity forcing him into the round hole. 
 

[IBatch]

6 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

So Benning taking players where they should be taken after other GMs made these mistakes is somehow proof Benning is a mastermind?

 

Every home run pick Benning has made in the first round was largely a consensus pick when it was his turn to go to the podium. 

Not EP.   Not JV either, and not OJ...those guys were all over the place.    Where JB outdoes his peer groups is with guys like McAan, Demko, Hogs, Forsling, Gaudette, probably Gadjovich and debateably Tryamkin ... maybe i missed someone - Rathbone maybe, Madden maybe.  The fact those tweeners don't make it doesn't make them bad picks, 100 games is considered a success past the first round.   Not many 2nd play 100 games, and very few past it see any ice time.    He routinely gets a "hidden gem" that gets some looks, sometimes sticks, sometimes moves on and sticks somewhere else.    He's averaging around 2 players a draft once they are added into the mix ... that's better then average.   Can't really count the last two drafts yet when it comes to these guys either.    JV wasn't a bust really either ... on pace to pass the bust margin this season for a 6th overall.   Expectations around the draft and picks are largely overrated on this site.    Milford still owns the honours for best drafting GM in Canucks history,  JB will likely surpass Burke soon, some think he already has given how long it took the Sedins to develop into star players,  for sure he has in comparable years.     Also had a 2,3 and a 4th to work with.   

[RU SERIOUS]

8 hours ago, Patel Bure said:

 

 

 

Canucks = 8 5picks converted into roster players from 2013-2019.  7 seasons.

2013: Horvat (Not picked by Uncle jim)
2014: Demko
2015: Boeser
2017: Pettersson + Rathbone (Is not on the Roster)
2018: Hughes
2019: Podkolzin (Is not on the Roster)+ Hoglander

 

I count only 5 so No, Uncle Jim is certainly not "a Star" drafter! (actually below average)

[RU SERIOUS]

5 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Those high price, ineffective veterans actually blocked young players from roster spots.

 

Virtanen, Gaudette, and Tryamkin were all botched to varying degrees in their development by the Canucks.

 

They rushed Virtanen and as the years went by they did next to nothing to put him in a position that would minimize his weaknesses and maximize his strengths. He bears responsibility for a lot of it but he is in the KHL and has significantly reported character problems. The Canucks ignored that for a long time which didn’t help him.

 

Gaudette was never a good fit as a 3rd line defensive center but the Canucks tried to shoehorn him into that role rather than put him with offensive players to better suit his style and strengths. He was massively mismanaged by Canucks player development.

 

The Canucks punished Tryamkin, held him back, and tried to force him to be Pronger ffs. Then they basically told him to F off when he wanted to come back. He would sure look good now wouldn’t he?

 

The Canucks are among the worst teams in the NHL at developing anything other than sure thing players.

........always refreshing to see someone say things the way they are!   Couldn't agree more with your comments.  Bingo!

[RU SERIOUS]

4 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

What in the team results makes you feel they have taken steps toward success every year? Benning just spent an off-season purging all the bad contracts he signed. 

Your honesty will upset "The Choir".    Shhhhhhsh !

 

(Good post)

[tas]

4 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

With Tryamkin, the money didn’t work for BENNING due to his many bad contracts for veterans. Tryamkin’s ask was pretty low according to his agent. And Benning agreed to it but only if Tryamkin would wait until he could dump some cap. Can’t really blame him for not wanting to wait. Benning had him do that the year before iirc and he ended up almost not getting a KHL deal. He signed a 2 year deal in the KHL as a result and for one reason. It would take him right to UFA status. Benning burned that bridge for no reason really and Tryamkin said ok if you don’t want me I am not going through this as an rfa next year. I may as well wait and sign somewhere else that actually values me.

 

With Gaudette, his offensive skill was more than enough to suggest a fit on a scoring line. Only Benning and Green think top 6 players have to be great defensively to play in the top 6. Guys like Patrick Kane would be working at McDonalds now if that was actually true. Trying to force a square peg into a round hole with Gaudette devalued him to the point all they could get was a healthy scratch player, who then immediately got played the rest of the year in the top 6 having not earned it or subsequently done anything with it. I never saw anything to suggest Gaudette said he didn’t like playing the wing. Maybe you have a quote?

being $&!#ty at d is ok for offensive players when they put up 100 pts, but not when they're question marks to put up 30.

[IBatch]

4 hours ago, Wanless said:

Youre a brave man

 

Unfortunately there are people in here that think every pick should be a roster player, and every player we trade away or waive are the next version of cam neely, or that he has to fix everything all at once. 

 

Benning has done well bringing in talent to the team for sure through the draft and trades

 

This season should see an improvement in offence and hopefully not a decline in defence 

 

next offseason i could see the team making a big hockey trade from one of the strengths shown this year to shore up the d group a bit better

 

Steps towards success each year, building piece by piece

Jt Miller counts as an excellent draft pick.   Four years of Miller at his cap hit, is excellent value for a 22nd overall.   Curiously enough, 22 is the drop off in quality in the first round, the likelihood of a 22-32 overall making the NHL is equal to the ENTIRE second round.    This idea that late first rounder's and early second ones are better then say a 40-50 overall actually is false data.    The data is available if you look for it.   Several studies of the draft are available, ones from 1990-2010, and ones from 2000-2015 as well.   University level ones.  

 

Despite the size of staff ballooning massively compared to the early 90's to the 2010's and present, there is virtually no difference in quantity of picks making it percentage wise round to round.   There was a very slight uptick in the quality (we are talking less then 1% here though!), and that was contributed to better development.   Imagine an employer spending 10 times the money on his development staff, just to get 1% better quality out of its product ... hardly seems worth it, sounds more like government thing just adding jobs for the case of adding jobs.   

 

Back to Miller.   Solid trade, and he could even get his pick value back in the end which would be great. 

 

I've followed all teams drafts for 20 years myself, because it's important for my hockey pool and it's fun.   THN is a great source for this, GMs actually use their information at the draft (video of them flipping through the top 100 analysis etc, probably because it's so easy to see what ISS ranks them, as well as the aggregate of ten NHL scouts (that's THN ranking)... their future watch is great information too.   Once a year they compare all GMs to each other using a simple system - the only thing it doesn't take into account is how many draft picks a GM actually has, just a four year block of where they picked, and where they rank in comparison to where they drafted and their peer group.   JB started at dead last.   And moved up quickly, and faster then where his average draft position was.   Tampa Bay leads the pack overall during that time, drafting way better then where they actually picked.   Jim Benning is usually around 10.   That makes him one of the top third  best drafting GMs during his tenure - given we also drafted so high it was exactly what we needed when we needed it.   A top three pool for three years in a row is a solid predictive measure.   Means five years later you have a solid chance of having a top team.   Of the other teams to do it recently, TO was the last one, and WNP the one before it.   WNP really should be a contender right now, and would have been if they didn't lose their entire right side, and Laine didn't go from a rocket richard challenger to just ordinary.   Even losing their entire right side they still are a playoff team. 

 

TO well it's fun to make fun of them, but they are one of two teams in their history to break 100 points and seem to lose in the first round.   And have lost some of that talent to the cap (Kapanen/Hyman etc).  

 

Long story short anyone who thinks JB is an elite drafter is wrong, anyone who thinks he's an average or below average drafter is wrong.    Even without two first rounders, he's still in the top 10 ... if Miller was under 21 we'd be in the top five still, and he really should be considered when looking at his picks, as should any other team who used picks for roster players. 

Edited October 11, 2021 by IBatch

[IBatch]

29 minutes ago, RU SERIOUS said:

I count only 5 so No, Uncle Jim is certainly not "a Star" drafter! (actually below average)

Not a star - above average compared to his peers when drafting.    Don't forget Adam Gaudette, McAan, JV, and others that played 100-300 games...they count despite whatever else occurred with them at least as far as drafting goes.   Calling him below average either puts you in the bracket of people that really don't understand the draft and how many actually make it (not much more then one a year per team) to 100-200 games depending on which round (second and beyond, the first), what constitutes as a bust based on where they were drafted (how many games should be expected from a 6th overall?), or in the bracket that just hates JB.   Or both? 

 

Edit:  Since JB started, we went the very bottom of the league - not just the bottom but significantly below the bottom, with only Horvat and Hutton in the stable ... MG tenure was a black hole for us worse then it should have been given not many picks were used, one first rounder for Ballard .... and within two short years we're middle of the pack ... a year later 13th...that Demko draft was very good.    Talking about best 21 and under groups here.   We ended up top three for a period of three years despite never drafting above 5....that's impossible to say below average.   

 

We have three players ranking in the top 25 and unders...that's 8 drafts ... you do the math.   Each team should have .75 of one guy or so.   Of course drafting around 10 on average over that time ... well maybe we should have 1.5 guys?   But we don't.   That's above average.   Quality and quantity count when it comes to these things.    But your probably the same guy who will complain if EP doesn't score more then a PGP this year.    Yes we've busted on OJ and JV...Yakupov...Glass, Patrick - well a bevy of others have so far too based on where they were drafted to varying degrees too.   JV never learned how to be a pro off the ice too.   That can be added to JB failures i'm fine with that.   JB might be gone after this year who knows, but his legacy as far as drafting goes will remain, and has decent odds of becoming the second best we've ever had.    Despite where we drafted.   

Edited October 11, 2021 by IBatch