Which is the best development league

[Fred65]

I came across this article in Dobbers ( Cam Robison ) and I must say it aligns with my own thinking, the NCAA-SEL are better development leagues

 

Quote

A little over a week ago, a trusted member of the analytics community, CJ Turtoro, tweeted this regarding the AHL:

I used data from @TopDownHockey's prospect model to show that the average AHL season actually /harms/ the long term outlook for a prospect. In fact, it does so more than any other league.

The NHL, by comparison, improves outlook the most of any league. https://t.co/yxM3R9TW6k

— CJ Turtoro (@CJTDevil) October 8, 2021

Here's the full article, interesting IMO 

 

Prospect Ramblings: Which League Is Best for Developing Prospects? – DobberProspects

[Junkyard Dog]

1 minute ago, Fred65 said:

I came across this article in Dobbers ( Cam Robison ) and I must say it aligns with my own thinking, the NCAA-SEL are better development leagues

 

Here's the full article, interesting IMO 

 

Prospect Ramblings: Which League Is Best for Developing Prospects? – DobberProspects

It’s tough to say. Every league has its different pros and cons. 

[48MPHSlapShot]

It seems to me that the US college/university level and the top leagues in Sweden are the best leagues for players to develop right now. liiga also seems to be a pretty good developmental league. 

[Angry Goose]

16 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

It’s tough to say. Every league has its different pros and cons. 

I agree it’s too general and too much variability to say “best” that being said there are leagues you should definitely scout heavily. Buts let’s not forget guys like Klimovich (who Cam Robinson coincidentally did not prefer at the time of the pick) can come out of much more unknown leagues

Edited October 24, 2021 by Angry Goose

[Junkyard Dog]

3 minutes ago, Angry Goose said:

I agree it’s too general and too much variability to say “best” that being said there are leagues you should definitely scout heavily. Buts let’s not forget guys like Klimovich (who Cam Robinson coincidentally did not prefer at the time of the pick) can come out of much more unknown leagues

Every player is in a different circumstance, different talent/physical level and different stage of development as well. 

[HighOnHockey]

This is stupid. "The NHL is the best league for developing NHL players." Yeah, no $&!#. Wouldn't it be nice if teams could develop all their players in the NHL. This article seems to take it that player development is the only consideration. But if a player isn't good enough to play in the NHL then they don't get to play in the NHL, too bad for their development. And the reasoning behind the conclusion is nonsense. All he's really showing is that if a player exhibits that he isn't good enough to play in the NHL (and so has to play in the AHL), then his long-term likelyhood of playing in the NHL is lower. Uhhhh, yeah. Players that are good enough to make the NHL are probably gonna be more likely to be NHL players.

[Fred65]

25 minutes ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

It seems to me that the US college/university level and the top leagues in Sweden are the best leagues for players to develop right now. liiga also seems to be a pretty good developmental league. 

I'm guessing Vcr management has reached the same conclussion, we're heavy into the NCAA/EU

[PetterssonOrPeterson]

Major Junior is more fun to watch for me because of tournaments like the memorial cup and there are different league cups for the different regions.

It's much more similar to the structure of a professional sports league compared to the college system, for instance, city vs city instead of school vs school.

 

However as of recent, I'm going to say NCAA. Outside of McDavid, I'd say since 2015, the propects from the college route have been generally a bit more successful in transitioning to the NHL game.

 

Maybe because the players are competing against slightly older players than in Major Junior?

 

22 year olds in NCAA while there are 20 year olds (or is the cut off 19?) in Junior.

Not sure if there is too big a difference, but certainly could be a factor where players are competing against more physically mature players.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

5 hours ago, Fred65 said:

I came across this article in Dobbers ( Cam Robison ) and I must say it aligns with my own thinking, the NCAA-SEL are better development leagues

 

Here's the full article, interesting IMO 

 

Prospect Ramblings: Which League Is Best for Developing Prospects? – DobberProspects

IIRC the Swedish Ice Hockey Association commissioned a study a few years back that basically came to the same conclusion.

 

They found that Swedish players had better careers if they simply avoided stops in the AHL.

Development and career trajectory was found to be better if they stayed in Sweden, for the players were not able to make the NHL immediately.

 

Their research suggested that time spent in the AHL not only lowered player’s odds of finding eventual NHL success (compared to Swedish home grown players), but also the AHL eventually returned inferior players back to Europe, relative to the career trajectories of comparable players who never left their home country’s system.

 

Sorry, I can’t track down a link.

 

I do remember posting about this stuff a while back, however.

[Alflives]

5 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

IIRC the Swedish Ice Hockey Association commissioned a study a few years back that basically came to the same conclusion.

 

They found that Swedish players had better careers if they simply avoided stops in the AHL.

Development and career trajectory was found to be better if they stayed in Sweden, for the players were not able to make the NHL immediately.

 

Their research suggested that time spent in the AHL not only lowered player’s odds of finding eventual NHL success (compared to Swedish home grown players), but also the AHL eventually returned inferior players back to Europe, relative to the career trajectories of comparable players who never left their home country’s system.

 

Sorry, I can’t track down a link.

 

I do remember posting about this stuff a while back, however.

Isn’t that because the guys from the SHL, who go to the NHL, are the cream of the SHL crop’s youth, and (like almost all the young elite players from any developmental league) go straight into the NHL now?  

Edited October 25, 2021 by Alflives

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

39 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Isn’t that because the guys from the SHL, who go to the NHL, are the cream of the SHL crop’s youth, and (like almost all the young elite players from any developmental league) go straight into the NHL now?  

I think they also mean guys with development curves running into their 20’s. They found it was better for them to just stay and develop in Sweden, if they’re not going straight to the NHL.
 

And they found when their young guys go to AHL, it actually sets them back, instead of helping them truly reach their potential.

 

This has also been a focus of negotiations in the intentional agreements, as the Swedes in particular have fought for greater rights to hold onto and develop NHL drafted players that don’t graduate straight to the NHL as prospects. Rather than have them go the the AHL, the Swedes have pushed to have players returned back to their system to develop further.

 

The Swedes have never had an issue with their top young players going to the NHL (well, other than wanting to raise some of the fees on those transfers).

 

But it’s not about those elite young guys. Those prospects are too good for either the SHL or the AHL. It’s about the guys who need more time to develop, and their research suggests that development is more successful in the Swedish leagues versus the AHL.

Edited October 25, 2021 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I think they also mean guys with development curves running into their 20’s. They found it was better for them to just stay and develop in Sweden, if they’re not going straight to the NHL.
 

And they found when their young guys go to AHL, it actually sets them back, instead of helping them truly reach their potential.

 

This has also been a focus of negotiations in the intentional agreements, as the Swedes in particular have fought for greater rights to hold onto and develop NHL drafted players that don’t graduate straight to the NHL as prospects. Rather than have them go the the AHL, the Swedes have pushed to have players returned back to their system to develop further.

 

The Swedes have never had an issue with their top young players going to the NHL (well, other than wanting to raise some of the fees on those transfers).

 

But it’s not about those elite young guys. Those prospects are too good for either the SHL or the AHL. It’s about the guys who need more time to develop, and their research suggests that development is more successful in the Swedish leagues versus the AHL.

How many 23+ year contracts do guys g from the SHL to the NHL?  The odd one, right?  It doesn’t matter which league the top young players develop in.  They will go to the NHL from whichever league they are in.  The CHL guys, who aren’t NHL ready, will go to the AHL and then, if they get good enough, move to the NHL.  But 23+ guys in the SHL are very unlikeLy to go to the NHL.  

The best development league, outside of the elite guys, is the AHL.  

[Playoff Beered]

40 minutes ago, Alflives said:

How many 23+ year contracts do guys g from the SHL to the NHL?  The odd one, right?

Jonathan Dahlen seems to be doing alright going to the NHL from the Allsvenskan, almost point per game on the first line and first power play unit. He may be the odd one though.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Playoff Beered

[Fred65]

3 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

IIRC the Swedish Ice Hockey Association commissioned a study a few years back that basically came to the same conclusion.

 

They found that Swedish players had better careers if they simply avoided stops in the AHL.

Development and career trajectory was found to be better if they stayed in Sweden, for the players were not able to make the NHL immediately.

 

Their research suggested that time spent in the AHL not only lowered player’s odds of finding eventual NHL success (compared to Swedish home grown players), but also the AHL eventually returned inferior players back to Europe, relative to the career trajectories of comparable players who never left their home country’s system.

 

Sorry, I can’t track down a link.

 

I do remember posting about this stuff a while back, however.

I read that article by chance, but a couple of years back I had sort of reached the same conclusion, as usual the same posters give you heck. However all is not lost I think in junior hockey the CHL still puts the highest percentage of players into the NHL but mostly due to volume. I see Sweden has 10 million population and the Finns 5 million, with approx 73K and 71K registered players respectively Canada has 604K registered players. It makes a difference, The USA is 562K registered players. That aside I'm thinking USA made  big push decades ago** and it's paying dividends for sure. The NCAA what ever the sport is a great develpment system. Canada has the edge in hockey, just, but it's falling behind. Players in the NCAA play/practise 6 days a week and put as many hours in the gym as they have on the ice. I had the pleasure to visit a NCAA hockey program in St.L They shared it with the Blues, it was incredible. the facilities had every thing u could need and  coaches, including ex NHL players, most fly to games now. You walk in and all you can say is wow and then pick your jaw up off the floor. For the numbers the Sedes and Finns have they do a specacular job, Canada depends on volume too much. The AHL is a business first and fore most 

 

**To reach a better volume the USHL ( juniors) started slowly in 1980 and it grows continuously. They are accepted by the NCAA as amateur, while the CHL are excluded

Edited October 25, 2021 by Fred65

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

1 hour ago, Fred65 said:

I read that article by chance, but a couple of years back I had sort of reached the same conclusion, as usual the same posters give you heck. However all is not lost I think in junior hockey the CHL still puts the highest percentage of players into the NHL but mostly due to volume. I see Sweden has 10 million population and the Finns 5 million, with approx 73K and 71K registered players respectively Canada has 604K registered players. It makes a difference, The USA is 562K registered players. That aside I'm thinking USA made  big push decades ago** and it's paying dividends for sure. The NCAA what ever the sport is a great develpment system. Canada has the edge in hockey, just, but it's falling behind. Players in the NCAA play/practise 6 days a week and put as many hours in the gym as they have on the ice. I had the pleasure to visit a NCAA hockey program in St.L They shared it with the Blues, it was incredible. the facilities had every thing u could need and  coaches, including ex NHL players, most fly to games now. You walk in and all you can say is wow and then pick your jaw up off the floor. For the numbers the Sedes and Finns have they do a specacular job, Canada depends on volume too much. The AHL is a business first and fore most 

 

**To reach a better volume the USHL ( juniors) started slowly in 1980 and it grows continuously. They are accepted by the NCAA as amateur, while the CHL are excluded

Practice to game ratio is a big factor, when it comes to development, and one that favours many of the European leagues and systems (as well as the NCAA), where their seasons often run almost as long on the calendar as North American pro leagues, but they play 20-40 fewer games, leaving much more time for practice. 
 

Similarly, less time is lost to travel, as the distances are shorter in Europe (just compare the SHL’s geographical footprint to the NHL/AHL), and the transportation system is often better, compared to North America (AHL especially). And with less travel time comes less fatigue, and less need for rest days, versus hitting practice/training again quickly after playing games.

 

Then there’s the profit issue, where systems like Sweden’s SIF (Swedish hockey federation) only allow 49% private ownership of clubs, with the club members holding 51%. Profits are required to be reinvested in the team, and a lot goes back into their development systems. The entire focus of the Swedish system is much more on developing the best overall population of players, versus building the most competitive and profitable teams.

Also, in the Swedish system, the investment in players starts young and continues for many years. The timeframe is shorter in North America (as far as players remaining in a single club’s system), whether it’s Europeans going to the CHL or drafted and sent to the AHL, with much more of a “what have you done for me lately” approach. And a seemingly endless supply of young players to chew up and spit out.

Edited October 25, 2021 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

I still can’t find that SIF study from Sweden. Maybe it was internal and not publicly shared? I definitely recall it being discussed though.

 

Did track down this IIHF source, however, that digs into many of the issues we’re talking about:

 

https://webarchive.iihf.com/fileadmin/user_upload/PDF/The_IIHF/IceTimes_10_6.pdf

 

Good read for those with the time.

[Googlie]

For  Canucks prospects, the KHL has to be the best development league.   There players can get comfortable scoring a hilite reel goal then sitting the next 2 games

[Fred65]

14 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I still can’t find that SIF study from Sweden. Maybe it was internal and not publicly shared? I definitely recall it being discussed though.

 

Did track down this IIHF source, however, that digs into many of the issues we’re talking about:

 

https://webarchive.iihf.com/fileadmin/user_upload/PDF/The_IIHF/IceTimes_10_6.pdf

 

Good read for those with the time.

It's funny I used to tell kids in a game there are 3 lines with three players on each line and shifts are approx 1 minute. A game last at best 1 hour of playing time ( stoppages between periods ) the chnaces of actually playing the puck is very limited so make the most of your practise time LOL.

 

I take a jaundiced view of the IIHF. There's such a biased view IMO, it's really a European Federation, until they want money. However the success of EU dvelopment cannot be denied at the upper level. Canada in the meantime need to run a much larger program with kids of all levels, and lots of them. I like to think Canada does keep and eye on participation and fun for kids. Sweden and Finland have had a disporortional, to their population, success. There's a lot we can learn. I remember when Edler  came over to the WHL Sweden just about black balled him in international junior competition. As much as Sweden complains about poaching players it's also true Sweden tries to stop players advancing. I think for instance Persson has guts to choose to pla in Kamloops but he won't make the national team

Edited October 25, 2021 by Fred65

[Putgolzin]

9 hours ago, Googlie said:

For  Canucks prospects, the KHL has to be the best development league.   There players can get comfortable scoring a hilite reel goal then sitting the next 2 games

oooohhhh maybe we’ll see Jake back before too long?!

[Timråfan]

On 10/25/2021 at 4:42 AM, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I think they also mean guys with development curves running into their 20’s. They found it was better for them to just stay and develop in Sweden, if they’re not going straight to the NHL.
 

And they found when their young guys go to AHL, it actually sets them back, instead of helping them truly reach their potential.

 

This has also been a focus of negotiations in the intentional agreements, as the Swedes in particular have fought for greater rights to hold onto and develop NHL drafted players that don’t graduate straight to the NHL as prospects. Rather than have them go the the AHL, the Swedes have pushed to have players returned back to their system to develop further.

 

The Swedes have never had an issue with their top young players going to the NHL (well, other than wanting to raise some of the fees on those transfers).

 

But it’s not about those elite young guys. Those prospects are too good for either the SHL or the AHL. It’s about the guys who need more time to develop, and their research suggests that development is more successful in the Swedish leagues versus the AHL.

It is my opinion also after watched the Utica Comets a few years.