Blight for Wright - Canucks already at less than 10% chance to make the playoffs

[Provost]

This came fast this season.  It is 20% of the season in and the team has fallen pretty far out of the playoff picture.

7+ points out of a playoff spot counting games in hand.  Super depressing and I mostly stopped watching games this week, just recording them and peeking at the score partway through to see if it was worth watching or if I should go slam the car door on my hand a few times to have a more fun time for the evening.

The different models have already shown how far of an uphill climb it will be.  Unlike last year with only divisional play, there are a few more "outs" where teams outside the division can take points away from our competition... but it is looking really grim when you consider the pace the team would have to finish out the season to hit the 95-96 point range for the historic playoff bar.  84 points in 66 games is a tall order, we are talking  .640 hockey or a 105 point pace over a whole season.  Is there any sign at all our team is capable of that kind of run?  We could have a miraculous 10-0 stretch coming up and still have to win almost 60% of our games for the rest of the season after that to be at the fringe playoff bar.

Our chances from the different sites:

Moneypuck 8.1%
Sportsclubstats 9.9%
Hockey Reference 9.7%
Power Rankings 13.2%
The Athletic 6%

Flame away, just like last year when I posted the same thing about odds partway into the season and folks decided to throw feces around because math makes them mad.  The thing about math is it doesn't care how you feel.  It isn't impossible, it is just extremely unlikely. 

The context of this is that hopefully we have a regime change where we can start trading away some of the pieces on the team when other teams are trying to load up for playoff runs before the Olympic break.  Not just tinkering around the edges, but trading away big pieces to rejig the roster substantially. 

If we see Benning stick around and keep trading away futures to make this season look more respectable and try to save his job... that will be disastrous as he would be chasing unicorns and likely fail.

Of course, if you decide to start throwing insults again I might quote some of the posts from last year's thread that will make you look pretty dumb because things turned out just like the odds said they would... defying the odds is a saying because it is an exception and not a likelihood.

We are capped out and have some of of best value contracts expiring soon in Hoglander, Miller, and Horvat.  Who knows what we do with Boeser and if his trade value is drastically reduced with the qualifying offer he needs to get and his uneven performance.

 

[DSVII]

I'm not putting it past Benning to trade our 1st away for the third year in a row to save his job just like he did in 2020. The 1st is written off in my head and will be a pleasant surprise if it's there by TDL

Edited November 16, 2021 by DSVII

[Rick Blight]

But I don't want to go..........I have a NMC!

[King Heffy]

There's still a chance if Green isn't allowed to coach another game.  If he stays through the homestand it will be too late.

[wallstreetamigo]

It’s just like every other year. Parity and loser points will convince the team they are still in it until the end when they will magically start winning games once eliminated to &^@# their draft odds.

 

Honestly, seen this movie too many times now. Fire Benning, Weisbrod, Green, and any assistants not named Shaw or Clark and put competent people in charge who can have an actual plan that isn’t this:

 

[BPA]

I read somewhere on the internet that Canucks would need to win about 40 games to make the playoffs. 

 

Highly unlikely unless they are the second coming of the St Louis Blues. 

[wallstreetamigo]

1 minute ago, BPA said:

I read somewhere on the internet that Canucks would need to win about 40 games to make the playoffs. 

 

Highly unlikely unless they are the second coming of the St Louis Blues. 

Who changed their coach iirc

[Provost]

Just now, DSVII said:

I'm not putting it past Benning to trade our 1st away for the third year in a row to save his job just like he did in 2020. The 1st is written off in my head and will be a pleasant surprise if it's there by TDL

... and not lottery protected of course just to give us more stress when the draft lottery is happening :D

I mean it is pretty Canucks like to finally win the lottery when we have traded away our pick.

I am not angry anymore, just getting apathetic like it felt during the Messier years when we had teams that looked decent on paper but just had no heart or identity to rally around.  I can take losing (I have been a fan since the 80's), but the way you lose matters>

 

[D-Money]

2 minutes ago, BPA said:

I read somewhere on the internet that Canucks would need to win about 40 games to make the playoffs. 

 

Highly unlikely unless they are the second coming of the St Louis Blues. 

Blues were being undone largely by goaltending. There was a magic bullet to fix that.

 

Our goaltending has been mostly excellent. Coaching is 90% of the problem, IMO. Whether it’s the direction itself, or the players tuning it out…doesn’t  really matter. But no established coach with a winning record is going to come here with Benning in charge, because if/when Jim gets canned then his job is up in the air too.

Edited November 16, 2021 by D-Money

[BPA]

1 minute ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Who changed their coach iirc

 

1 minute ago, D-Money said:

Blues were being undone largely by goaltending. There was a magic bullet to fix that.

 

Our goaltending has been mostly excellent. Coaching is 90% of the problem, IMO. 

Yup.

 

Blues changed their coach (got Berube) and went on a miracle run.

[King Heffy]

2 minutes ago, D-Money said:

Blues were being undone largely by goaltending. There was a magic bullet to fix that.

 

Our goaltending has been mostly excellent. Coaching is 90% of the problem, IMO. 

Fortunately, there is an easy solution to bad coaching.

[Provost]

2 hours ago, BPA said:

I read somewhere on the internet that Canucks would need to win about 40 games to make the playoffs. 

 

Highly unlikely unless they are the second coming of the St Louis Blues. 

40 of our remaining 66 only gets us to 92 points.... that is lower than the playoff bar generally is.  42 wins puts us right on the fringe.  I guess if you throw in some OTL games to get a loser point we could get in with 40 more wins.

That means only 14 regulation losses the rest of the season to make the playoffs.  We have 9 in our first 16 games.

 

(edit… sorry 24 losses)

Starting to feel apathetic yet?

Edited November 16, 2021 by Provost

[brownky]

5 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Who changed their coach iirc

As did Pittsburgh when they did their run too.

[BPA]

If Benning is not fired...

 

1) Fire Green and get a new coach.

2) DO NOT trade 1st 2022 and 2023 

 

 

If Benning is fired and replaced...

 

1)  See above.

2)  Trade players that is not part of the new vision. 

[CaptKirk888]

4 minutes ago, Provost said:

40 of our remaining 66 only gets us to 92 points.... that is lower than the playoff bar generally is.  42 wins puts us right on the fringe.  I guess if you throw in some OTL games to get a loser point we could get in with 40 more wins.

That means only 14 regulation losses the rest of the season to make the playoffs.  We have 9 in our first 16 games.

Starting to feel apathetic yet?

That does not make sense. Canucks are 5-9-2, there are 66 games left. We could go 40-24-2 to finish the year at 94 points

24 regulation losses.

[NUCKER67]

Lots of problems with this team, including:

 

- GM extended Travis, instead of finding a replacement, and has trade the last two years' 1st round picks for this

- Head Coach has a losing record and has lost the room

- Special Teams Coach doesn't know what he's doing

- Pettersson looks awful

- Horvat is a quiet Captain and the team has no identity

- Possible rift in the room (Bo and JT?)

 

I hate to say it, but I think Jim makes a big trade to shake things up.  It's a last resort before firing the GM or Coach. 

[24K PureCool]

Blow it up!

New GM and coach.

Trade Horvat, Petey, Boesser, Hughes, Miller, Garland, and Demko (mostly to give him the chance to win a cup).

 

If we are gonna suck and rebuild the rebuild might as well do it in these two upcoming strong draft.

[wallstreetamigo]

19 minutes ago, Provost said:

... and not lottery protected of course just to give us more stress when the draft lottery is happening :D

I mean it is pretty Canucks like to finally win the lottery when we have traded away our pick.

I am not angry anymore, just getting apathetic like it felt during the Messier years when we had teams that looked decent on paper but just had no heart or identity to rally around.  I can take losing (I have been a fan since the 80's), but the way you lose matters>

 

This

[Pears]

1 minute ago, 24K PureCool said:

Blow it up!

New GM and coach.

Trade Horvat, Petey, Boesser, Hughes, Miller, Garland, and Demko (mostly to give him the chance to win a cup).

 

If we are gonna suck and rebuild the rebuild might as well do it in these two upcoming strong draft.

This isn’t gm mode in NHL 22.

[King Heffy]

2 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Lots of problems with this team, including:

 

- GM extended Travis, instead of finding a replacement, and has trade the last two years' 1st round picks for this

- Head Coach has a losing record and has lost the room

- Special Teams Coach doesn't know what he's doing

- Pettersson looks awful

- Horvat is a quiet Captain and the team has no identity

- Possible rift in the room (Bo and JT?)

 

I hate to say it, but I think Jim makes a big trade to shake things up.  It's a last resort before firing the GM or Coach. 

Why wouldn't firing a clearly incompetent coach be the first step before a major trade?