BigTramFan Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 I know this is a ‘what if’ but….how well should this team be performing? Offense: Based on the individual players ‘goals for per game’ from the previous 2 seasons the Canucks should be targeting approx. 276 goals for this regular season. But they are currently tracking towards only 209 goals for (about 67 goals less). Our forwards are the main contributors to the projected drop in ‘goals for’, on pace for 62 goals lower than they should be targeting. Especially Pettersson, Pearson, Boeser and Dickinson, who are well down on the pace of goals we expect them to score. Horvat is lagging a bit but can still catch up. Miller and Hoglander are doing better than expected. Garland and Chiasson are performing about as expected. As a rookie, Podkolzin is on track for 15 goals this season, so I have used that as his ‘past’ performance. Motte has been injured so has not put any goals up this season yet. He has time to contribute. For more detail see table below. Note we should expect about 35 goals from our defense corps over the season and we are on pace for 30 goals at this stage. Not too bad and tells the story that the forwards are the main reason for this slump in offense. Defense: Our team is doing well on 5v5. After 18 games we have given away 37 goals at even strength. The issue is the PK. Currently 23 PP goals against, whereas the league average is 10 PP goals against. If our PK could perform at ‘league average’ for the whole season, then the Canucks would be on track for a total of only 214 goals against. At this stage they are looking at closer to 273 goals against based on the current rate. Summary: If the individual players scored as they have the previous 2 seasons and our PK was just 'average', then we would looking at 276 goals for and 214 goals against, and could expect to easily make the playoffs. For the below table, 'Goals based on previous performance' is based on averaged goal production per game over the past 2 seasons multiplied by 82 games. For 'Projected goals based on performance this season' I have taken the pace of goals scored in the first 18 games multiplied by 82 games. Goals based on previous performance Projected goals based on performance this season Miller 28 32 Pettersson 32 14 Boeser 28 22 Pearson 21 9 Horvat 27 23 Hoglander 19 23 Garland 23 23 Dickinson 11 5 Podkolzin 15 15 Motte 15 0 Lammikko 7 0 Chiasson 15 13 Forwards TOTAL 241 179 OEL 8 9 Hughes 7 10 Myers 8 0 Hamonic 6 0 Poolman 3 5 Burroughs 3 6 Defense TOTAL 35 30 Team TOTAL 276 209 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ken kaniff Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 (edited) I was expecting them to be a bubble playoff team. Forward depth is still lacking but at least they aren’t making a lot of money. Defence is still unimpressive and overpriced for what it’s bringing. Some players should be doing worse this season than the previous 2 (ex.Pearson) some are underperforming (Pettersson) and maybe some are doing exactly as they can (Boeser). All that matters rn is Canucks are bad All together I wasn’t expecting them to be this bad but I didn’t expect them to be a contender either. Benning fanboys act like we should be a cup contender and it’s only Greens fault we’re not. Green has lost the room but the team on paper isn’t a contender anyways. 8 years and all this team should be is a bubble playoff team. Edited November 22, 2021 by ken kaniff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-AJ- Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Like @ken kaniff, I was expecting a team that would right on the edge of the playoffs, maybe just barely out, maybe just barely in. I figured we'd finish about 3rd or 4th in the Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 21 minutes ago, ken kaniff said: Benning fanboys act like we should be a cup contender and it’s only Greens fault we’re not. Green has lost the room but the team on paper isn’t a contender anyways. 8 years and all this team should be is a bubble playoff team. I think the data shows that we absolutely SHOULD be a playoff team. Not saying we are a contender, as once you get to the playoffs, its a totally different game. I'm not a JB fanboy but I do lay the blame squarely on Green for not getting anywhere near the potential out of this team. A decent coach would have us in the hunt for a playoff spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawkdrummer Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 They should be a playoff team. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ken kaniff Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just now, BigTramFan said: I think the data shows that we absolutely SHOULD be a playoff team. Not saying we are a contender, as once you get to the playoffs, its a totally different game. I'm not a JB fanboy but I do lay the blame squarely on Green for not getting anywhere near the potential out of this team. A decent coach would have us in the hunt for a playoff spot. Those are just projections based off the last couple years. Players have down years or perform well and skew the data. Players decline as they age. You can’t base projections off the last 2 years and expect them to meet that pace. Ballpark average maybe but saying we should have 276 goals is silly. Ballpark maybe within 20-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 We WILL BE winning the Cup in 2022. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, ken kaniff said: Those are just projections based off the last couple years. Players have down years or perform well and skew the data. Players decline as they age. You can’t base projections off the last 2 years and expect them to meet that pace. Ballpark average maybe but saying we should have 276 goals is silly. Ballpark maybe within 20-30 Correct they are just projections of what this team should be capable of. On average I would expect some ups and downs, not mostly downs. The players that have declined this season are Pettersson (age 23), Pearson (29), Dickinson (26), Boeser (24). It's not age related. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ken kaniff Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just now, BigTramFan said: Correct they are just projections of what this team should be capable of. On average I would expect some ups and downs, not mostly downs. The players that have declined this season are Pettersson (age 23), Pearson (29), Dickinson (26), Boeser (24). It's not age related. I think Pearson definitely is age related. He’s been on the decline for a while. Pettersson I think is just having a down year. Dickinson I have no idea. Never really watched him. Maybe adjusting to a new team? Aside from his rookie season and last season Boeser hasn’t looked too far off from his current pace. Maybe this is just all he is as a player? I can’t explain why this team is doing so bad. All I know is on paper they’re not that great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 (edited) 5 hours ago, BigTramFan said: I think the data shows that we absolutely SHOULD be a playoff team. Not saying we are a contender, as once you get to the playoffs, its a totally different game. I'm not a JB fanboy but I do lay the blame squarely on Green for not getting anywhere near the potential out of this team. A decent coach would have us in the hunt for a playoff spot. Most models had them outside the playoffs and they were projecting with Motte, Sutter and Hamonic in the lineup. They simulate the outcome of games several 100K times (some 1M) and it gives a distribution curve with the peak being the likeliest outcome. They shouldn't be that bad though. Edited November 22, 2021 by mll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westcoasting Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 I thought they would be right there for a bottom playoff spot... if we are going to be this bad why is the damn salary cap so high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patel Bure Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 I was expecting them to be a #4 seed in the division and #7/#8 overall in the conference, losing in the first round. I thought that their top two RD's would be their downfall. For the life of me, I did not expect Pettersson, Boeser, and Dickinson to be this bad. It's just mind boggling, and something that I did not expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patel Bure Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, mll said: Most models had them outside the playoffs and they were projecting with Motte, Sutter and Hamonic in the lineup. They simulate the outcome of games several 100K times (some 1M) and it gives a distribution curve with the peak being the likeliest outcome. They shouldn't be that bad though. Those models probably underrated the impact of a newly motivated OEL, along with a very underrated OEL-Myers pairing. Those models also probably underrated our 5 on 5 play. Had Petey, Brock, Dickinson, and our Power play held up their part of the bargain, we would have been a playoff team. Everyone knew that our PK was going to be bad but not this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Buzzsaw* Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 The team should be midpack... either squeaking into the playoffs or just missing them. They have more than enough top six offensive talent and goaltending, their bottom six and defense is weak. But the real problem is no one is playing up to their level because of poor coaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Patel Bure said: Those models probably underrated the impact of a newly motivated OEL, along with a very underrated OEL-Myers pairing. Those models also probably underrated our 5 on 5 play. Had Petey, Brock, Dickinson, and our Power play held up their part of the bargain, we would have been a playoff team. Everyone knew that our PK was going to be bad but not this bad. Don’t think OEL’s new found confidence would change the outcome of the projections much. There’s a range of outcome and one profile being slightly better shouldn’t swing things completely around from more likely missing the playoffs to playoff certainty. They had Sutter, Motte and Hamonic in the lineup too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 We keep playing like this and all bets are off. New management and a new coach...we might be the worst team in the NHL for another 2-3 years, because a total clean-up could be coming. As in goodbye Horvat, goodbye Miller, see you later EP and nice to know you BB. And do this rodeo all over again. And quite likely miss EP, BB, Horvat and Miller too. I have no idea anymore if we have the players to make this work. Every average fan knows we have issues. Most think a new coach will solve everything - i'm not one of those though. I think we either need to stick to what we have and wait for their peak primes, add after Myers is done etc or just pull the darn plug on the entire thing and start over. If the cup is the actual goal then pulling the plug is probably the better route. Something inbetween is likely what will happen. Two of BB, Miller, Horvat and EP get traded. At this point it's EP and BB as far as production goes and best return. Although Miller is right there with them. Trade Miller now for a RHD and a pick. Fire the coach. And see where that goes. JB isn't going to survive this without a ton of hope for next season so needs to do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erkayloomeh Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Firing green is the starting point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballisticsports. Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 How Good? We should be better than what we are ! But Canuck fans should be use to losing since joining the NHL Canucks are the third team from the ALL TIME NHL Team bottom of winning % Only Coyotes ..009% behind us and Kraken and yet we have never had a #1 overall pick I guess it is ok to only say At least we aren't the Coyotes or Kraken at this stage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxVerstappen33 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Good analysis. Shows well that we should have expected to be a playoff team. It just sucks that Green wasn't fired 3 weeks ago. I think its all on him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxVerstappen33 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, ba;;isticsports said: I guess it is ok to only say At least we aren't the Coyotes or Kraken at this stage The Yotes are trying to lose though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now