steviewonder20 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 1 minute ago, JM_ said: So was Shinkaruk. If you look at the success rate of later picks its not great. "the success rate drops massively from pick 25 to pick 31, and then it stays at a similar level for the entire second round. "https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/ We can play the picks game all day. If we were rebuilding I'd say sure, get all the picks you can. But we aren't rebuilding. Yes, the probability drops off later in the draft. The point is that a potentially valuable player can be found in the first round and anything is better than letting Miller leave for free. Given the difficulty in gaining cap space for every team, and the primary needs of this team, I really don’t see us re-signing Miller at all, whether it’s for 5, 6, 7 or 8 years, we simply can’t afford him. JR may have bolstered the forwards with that in mind. I don’t like the risk of a TDL trade either. I would prefer to get this done before training camp and to have them start working on our new line-up asap. Whether Miller is our best, second best or third best player is moot. We can’t afford him, he’s not part of our core, he doesn’t fit with our timeline, and he may bring back valuable assets for our long-term goals, that few other players could provide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, stawns said: Gotcha...........that would be a lame "I told you so" as I think those of us advocatiing a miller deal are the ones who give him the highest value. Many in the "keep miller" crowd clearly don't think he's an elite player, or don't expect him to be paid like one hoping he'll sign something reasonable isn't the same thing as undervaluing him. I don't think anyone on the keep Miller train doesn't think he's a legit 1st line player. Very few players signing 9 mil + deals are worth it, even at the outset. Look how many bad 9 mil dman deals there are right now. Nurse and Jones aren't worth anything close to that. Is Eichel really worth 10? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, steviewonder20 said: Yes, the probability drops off later in the draft. The point is that a potentially valuable player can be found in the first round and anything is better than letting Miller leave for free. Given the difficulty in gaining cap space for every team, and the primary needs of this team, I really don’t see us re-signing Miller at all, whether it’s for 5, 6, 7 or 8 years, we simply can’t afford him. JR may have bolstered the forwards with that in mind. I don’t like the risk of a TDL trade either. I would prefer to get this done before training camp and to have them start working on our new line-up asap. Whether Miller is our best, second best or third best player is moot. We can’t afford him, he’s not part of our core, he doesn’t fit with our timeline, and he may bring back valuable assets for our long-term goals, that few other players could provide. I don't think its necessarily better than playoff experience. Its fine if we disagree on the value of that. You say we can't afford him, but we will have to pay someone if we want to compete. Who will it be? Edited August 7, 2022 by JM_ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: Why don't we look at the last 3 years when Miller was actually with the Canucks and a 1st line forward: Huberdeau - 1.24 10.5x8 Miller - 1.07 ?? Zibanejad - 1.06 8.5x8 Gaudreau - 1.06 9.75x7 Forsberg - 0.98 8.5x8 Hertl - 0.79 8.1x8 Nobody is saying Miller will get 10.5x8, however you can't just use one player to use as a comparable. The agent will use several players. Based on the 5 players above (not including what Kadri is getting which could change everything), Miller is looking at a deal in the $9 million range as a UFA (9x7) IF he were to get another 99 point season next year. That is why it is so important for both parties to get a deal done prior to the season starting... Age matters. Miller will be at least a year older than most of those players that signed those deals. That factors in too. Miller is not gonna have another 99 point season. We know it, him and his agent know it, and most importantly management knows it. That’s why they’re not gonna pay him like an elite forward. He only gets that 9 million dollar offer if he follows up this season with another 90+ point season. For every 10 points less than that his offers are going way down. That’s the risk that he takes going into the season without a contract. And that’s without even factoring in a major injury. If it’s down to a 500k gap in his contract ask he’d be wise to take the offer. That 50 million could start to disappear pretty quick if next season doesn’t go the way he planned. Edited August 7, 2022 by DeNiro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 40 minutes ago, grandmaster said: Demko was fantastic but Miller willed most of this team’s victories, both on and off the ice. Miller is the only lion on this team that was otherwise full of domestic cats. Miller could have put up 120 points last season but without Demko playing the way he did it wouldn't have mattered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandmaster Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, stawns said: no he didn't and from mid January on, he was probably the 5th best player after Demko, Petey, Horvat and Hughes You are wrong and you have memory issues. https://canucksarmy.com/2022/03/10/j-t-miller-wrestled-title-best-player-vancouver-canucks-indispensable-piece/ J.T. Miller has wrestled the title of best player on the Vancouver Canucks and become an indispensable piece while doing so MARCH 10, 2022, 10:37 AM | NOAH STRANG How J.T. Miller has earned himself the title of best player on the Canucks Heading into this season, you could make the argument for a few different players to be named the best on the Canucks. Quinn Hughes has one of the most unique skillsets in the league and is irreplaceable in terms of what he brings to the ice. When on his game, Elias Pettersson is one of the top two-way pivots in the league with a devastating shot. Goalie Thatcher Demko bails the team out on a nightly basis and deserves tons of credit for his consistency. Miller was also in this conversation, though a struggle with controlling emotions and a tendency for careless mistakes often left fans confused. It wasn’t rare to see Miller completely dominate a shift before throwing a blind pass that led to a turnover and a chance the other way. However, since Boudreau’s arrival, Miller has cleaned up his game a bit and the results are showing on the ice and on the box score. In the 31 games that Miller has played under Boudreau, he’s scored 44 points, a 116 point pace when extrapolated over 82 games. Not only that, but he has just eight secondary assists during that time, showing that he has been creating plenty of scoring opportunities. While Miller is on the ice at 5-on-5, the Canucks have scored 56.10% of the goals. Miller has clearly established himself as the best player on the team, as well as taken a larger leadership role that he hasn’t held in the past. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 12 hours ago, Coconuts said: They don't have to, they just gave to move what he gets in that direction, thus the shooting high Obviously they shoot high but there’s a lot more comparables that management will bring in that are closer to his production that says he’s in the 8-9 million dollar range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baratheon Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, JM_ said: hoping he'll sign something reasonable isn't the same thing as undervaluing him. I don't think anyone on the keep Miller train doesn't think he's a legit 1st line player. Very few players signing 9 mil + deals are worth it, even at the outset. Look how many bad 9 mil dman deals there are right now. Nurse and Jones aren't worth anything close to that. Is Eichel really worth 10? I think everyone would love it if we got Miller on a team friendly deal. JR has also said as much. I don’t think that’s going to happen though personally. For me it was a massive red flag when the agent said something like “we’ll have to see if the team values JT” or whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Baratheon said: I think everyone would love it if we got Miller on a team friendly deal. JR has also said as much. I don’t think that’s going to happen though personally. For me it was a massive red flag when the agent said something like “we’ll have to see if the team values JT” or whatever. yep its probably a long shot. So are late 1sts. This whole situation has risk no matter which way it rolls out. I would hope something in the range of 60ish over 8 years would get it done given all the risks to him waiting out another year but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BPA Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baratheon said: I think everyone would love it if we got Miller on a team friendly deal. JR has also said as much. I don’t think that’s going to happen though personally. For me it was a massive red flag when the agent said something like “we’ll have to see if the team values JT” or whatever. And that’s it in a nutshell. Canucks have price in mind. Miller has an idea of his worth in the current market. And the two are “far apart”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 18 minutes ago, JM_ said: hey what happened to your bottles predicting we're going to re-sign Miller? His bottles are made of rubber and also flip flop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, DeNiro said: Age matters. Miller will be at least a year older than most of those players that signed those deals. That factors in too. Miller is not gonna have another 99 point season. We know it, him and his agent know it, and most importantly management knows it. That’s why they’re not gonna pay him like an elite forward. He only gets that 9 million dollar offer if he follows up this season with another 90+ point season. For every 10 points less than that his offers are going way down. That’s the risk that he takes going into the season without a contract. And that’s without even factoring in a major injury. If it’s down to a 500k gap in his contract ask he’d be wise to take the offer. That 50 million could start to disappear pretty quick if next season doesn’t go the way he planned. we also have a year 8 to offer him. That can take our AAV down a bit than other teams offers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baratheon Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, JM_ said: yep its probably a long shot. So are late 1sts. This whole situation has risk no matter which way it rolls out. I would hope something in the range of 60ish over 8 years would get it done given all the risks to him waiting out another year but we'll see. I don’t want a late first as the main piece in a trade but I still like it better than nothing. Maybe getting a round or two of playoff experience would be worth it but I’m not convinced that JT is needed for that. We are suddenly fairly deep at forward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 Just now, Baratheon said: I don’t want a late first as the main piece in a trade but I still like it better than nothing. Maybe getting a round or two of playoff experience would be worth it but I’m not convinced that JT is needed for that. We are suddenly fairly deep at forward. I think it is certainly easier if we keep Miller. We all like to talk absolutes on this board, like you "never" let a UFA walk, etc. but it happens all the time. What kind of message does it send to the players like Bo if Miller gets dumped for a late 1st and it kills one of his few remaining cracks at the playoffs? there's a lot to consider more than just getting back whats essentially a 2nd round pick value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, JM_ said: yep its probably a long shot. So are late 1sts. This whole situation has risk no matter which way it rolls out. I would hope something in the range of 60ish over 8 years would get it done given all the risks to him waiting out another year but we'll see. Ahem. 1 hour ago, aGENT said: Why are you assuming that's the case? Looking at what similar guys have got as just rentals at TDL's, anyone could see that a late first is never the best piece. Feels like you're attempting to build a narrative there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, JM_ said: I think it is certainly easier if we keep Miller. We all like to talk absolutes on this board, like you "never" let a UFA walk, etc. but it happens all the time. What kind of message does it send to the players like Bo if Miller gets dumped for a late 1st and it kills one of his few remaining cracks at the playoffs? there's a lot to consider more than just getting back whats essentially a 2nd round pick value. Exactly. Unless a team gets desperate or the market significantly changes we’re not getting the top value we all dreamed of. If it comes down to trading him then at this point I would be happy with a young D like Schneider or Morrow. Forget about all the other high end pieces and just try and get that right shot D man. I still have a feeling they re-sign him right before the season similar to Zibanejad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, JM_ said: What kind of message does it send to the players like Bo if Miller gets dumped for a late 1st and it kills one of his few remaining cracks at the playoffs It sends the message that the team doesn't just care about a 'one and done' but rather wishes to build a team that competes every year. Ps- don't think people didn't see the bit you threw in about "second round value'. Ever moving goalposts. Edited August 7, 2022 by gurn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baratheon Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, JM_ said: I think it is certainly easier if we keep Miller. We all like to talk absolutes on this board, like you "never" let a UFA walk, etc. but it happens all the time. What kind of message does it send to the players like Bo if Miller gets dumped for a late 1st and it kills one of his few remaining cracks at the playoffs? there's a lot to consider more than just getting back whats essentially a 2nd round pick value. Again I agree but only conditionally. Overpaying JT would sabotage this team. Letting a UFA walk isn’t the end of the world but it’s definitely not good. Where would we be now if we had gotten something for even half the players we lost over the last decade? Maybe don’t think about it too deeply. It’s a truly frustrating experience lol! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70seven Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 When trade deadline approaches there will be contenders willing to pay the rental fee, especially since the cap will be easier to navigate at that stage of the season. Still expect similar return to Fiala deal, and I honestly don’t see Miller staying in Van. He’s going to test UFA imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, grandmaster said: You are wrong and you have memory issues. https://canucksarmy.com/2022/03/10/j-t-miller-wrestled-title-best-player-vancouver-canucks-indispensable-piece/ J.T. Miller has wrestled the title of best player on the Vancouver Canucks and become an indispensable piece while doing so MARCH 10, 2022, 10:37 AM | NOAH STRANG How J.T. Miller has earned himself the title of best player on the Canucks Heading into this season, you could make the argument for a few different players to be named the best on the Canucks. Quinn Hughes has one of the most unique skillsets in the league and is irreplaceable in terms of what he brings to the ice. When on his game, Elias Pettersson is one of the top two-way pivots in the league with a devastating shot. Goalie Thatcher Demko bails the team out on a nightly basis and deserves tons of credit for his consistency. Miller was also in this conversation, though a struggle with controlling emotions and a tendency for careless mistakes often left fans confused. It wasn’t rare to see Miller completely dominate a shift before throwing a blind pass that led to a turnover and a chance the other way. However, since Boudreau’s arrival, Miller has cleaned up his game a bit and the results are showing on the ice and on the box score. In the 31 games that Miller has played under Boudreau, he’s scored 44 points, a 116 point pace when extrapolated over 82 games. Not only that, but he has just eight secondary assists during that time, showing that he has been creating plenty of scoring opportunities. While Miller is on the ice at 5-on-5, the Canucks have scored 56.10% of the goals. Miller has clearly established himself as the best player on the team, as well as taken a larger leadership role that he hasn’t held in the past. so repudiation of one posters opinion is by using another posters opinion? C'mon. Miller was great all year, but Demko was, far and away, the best Canuck and after the new year Petey and Bo put the rest of the team on their backs right to the end. Petey was the best skater on the team from mid january on, imo, followed closely by Bo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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