shiznak Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 17 hours ago, KirkSave said: And let's see how they fare in the playoffs. The Post season is an entirely different beast. Remember how Vegas smothered Hughes and made his game obsolete in the Bubble? This is why you surround these “undersized” defensemen with a defensive partner that gel with their game (ie: a tougher stay-at-home defensemen). Besides, most teams around the league have 2-3 defensemen, who are under 6’0 and weight less than 200lbs, anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EternalCanuckFan Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 The Hockey Writers: Rangers' Disastrous 2018 Trade With Lightning Could Get Worse. https://thehockeywriters.com/rangers-lightning-2018-trade-lopsided/ Not sure if this has been posted already. Technically nothing new but I thought it was interesting. Might provide some insight into underlying reasons why the Rangers may not be keen to pay a very steep price for Miller. Not saying the reasoning holds up as I think it's based on a logical fallacy. The past decision is a sunk cost. Nothing they do now can change that if they really believe that the current JT Miller will help them move up a notch in competitiveness. Nonetheless I can understand the emotional/optical aspect of paying a steep price to reacquired Miller when the trade he was previously involved in already went very poorly for the Rangers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 7 hours ago, RakuRaku said: I get that... But trading him now means we have given up on the season... But I suppose we would have to if we don't get on another hot streak! Theres still a month until the deadline, things will be more clear in a couple of weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Attila Umbrus Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 15 hours ago, Alflives said: Technically the players are paid for regular season games. The "hold out" only begins if they miss those games. And cats are better with ketchup. You and John Garret must be good friends then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirkSave Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 15 hours ago, stawns said: That means nothing and, simply, isn't what the NHL is anymore. Well I certainly wouldn't want you as a teammate when the going gets tough if that is your perspective. Also, you're wrong. Perfect example is what the TB Lightning did after they got bounced by CLB in the first round a few years ago. They went out and acquired, tough, gritty, teammates that stick up for one another, because that is what you need for playoff success! (Bogosian, Schenn, Maroon, Coleman, Goodrow). The results were back to back cups and that style of play now defines their team. Mix of skill and grit and it has gotten the job done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, KirkSave said: Well I certainly wouldn't want you as a teammate when the going gets tough if that is your perspective. Also, you're wrong. Perfect example is what the TB Lightning did after they got bounced by CLB in the first round a few years ago. They went out and acquired, tough, gritty, teammates that stick up for one another, because that is what you need for playoff success! (Bogosian, Schenn, Maroon, Coleman, Goodrow). The results were back to back cups and that style of play now defines their team. Mix of skill and grit and it has gotten the job done. Again, that's the game I love, the game I played. I fought in close to 75% of the games I played in Jr.........I was the guy the coach tapped on the shoulder when a situation needed to be taken care of. That doesn't change the reality of the current NHL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirkSave Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 33 minutes ago, stawns said: Again, that's the game I love, the game I played. I fought in close to 75% of the games I played in Jr.........I was the guy the coach tapped on the shoulder when a situation needed to be taken care of. That doesn't change the reality of the current NHL. What is the reality of the current NHL then? From what I see, the best teams have skill and grit. (TB, FLA, CAL, COL, NYR, MIN, STL, NSH, BOS). All these teams play a hard, fast game and stick up for their teammates. It's more of a team attitude and wililngness more than anything, that I personally think the Canucks lack as a team, outside of a few players. By stick up I don't expect the gloves to be dropped every time but at least give a cross check, a face wash or get in a guy's face verbally, throw a clean hit, get involved & engaged in a scrum. Too often our Canucks skate away, not even willing to get nose to nose and talk trash even. The top teams all have that team mentality where they have each other's backs. This is why they are built for success come playoff hockey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, KirkSave said: What is the reality of the current NHL then? From what I see, the best teams have skill and grit. (TB, FLA, CAL, COL, NYR, MIN, STL, NSH, BOS). All these teams play a hard, fast game and stick up for their teammates. It's more of a team attitude and wililngness more than anything, that I personally think the Canucks lack as a team, outside of a few players. By stick up I don't expect the gloves to be dropped every time but at least give a cross check, a face wash or get in a guy's face verbally, throw a clean hit, get involved & engaged in a scrum. Too often our Canucks skate away, not even willing to get nose to nose and talk trash even. The top teams all have that team mentality where they have each other's backs. This is why they are built for success come playoff hockey. I honestly haven't seen much of this bullying you're talking about. You can't have a melee every time a player gets hit and they don't have a good enough pk to afford getting roughing, cross checking, instigator penalties. They've got bigger fish to fry than that kind of toughness, imo 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Attila Umbrus Posted February 19, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted February 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, stawns said: I honestly haven't seen much of this bullying you're talking about. You can't have a melee every time a player gets hit and they don't have a good enough pk to afford getting roughing, cross checking, instigator penalties. They've got bigger fish to fry than that kind of toughness, imo You bring up a good point. It drives me nuts that when you lay a good clean hit in todays game you gotta fight someone for it after. How dare you hit one of our guys too hard, now I’m gonna jump in and try to send you a message…to me it takes the good physicality out of the game when every time a good clean hit happens you gotta look over your back to make sure you’re not getting mugged. It slows the game down. Good hit, get on with it and keep playing. Ugh 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post CaptainLinden16 Posted February 19, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted February 19, 2022 (edited) 21 hours ago, Provost said: Except again... you are missing most of the entire point of my post. We don't have Miller after next season. The logic is just plain wrong to say "We won't likely get Miller back in the trade" so asset management is pretty meaningless. I pointed out the ton of other variables at play that are equally important. This will be my last attempt. There is an over emphasis on asset management in the dialogues on these forums. Inevitably more than one variable must be considered. Contract term and length are part of that. You have no idea whether or not Miller will be here after his contract expires( if it even gets to that point) neither do I. You assert opinions not facts. The logic is not plain wrong that we likely wont get Miller back in a trade. The odds are heavy against that. I get the sentiment well we should try our best to make it happen. Basic understanding of mathematics and statistics will make it plain that any trade for futures leads to a low probability of obtaining a player like Miller in the future. That doesn't mean its not possible. It is simply improbable. Again, I get the sentiment that something is better than nothing. I am not arguing that every players contract should be allowed to expire without receiving anything return. Its that it is better to make a hockey trade if possible. Not a trade for futures. It wouldn't be difficult to cherry pick draft picks from the last 10 years in the first round and construct a team of high quality NHL players. It also wouldn't be difficult, easier in fact, to construct a team of non-NHL players with 1st round draft picks in the last 10 years. There are 32 teams full of highly skilled professional scouting personnel spending all of their time assessing these players. They don't do it in-between their day jobs at Microsoft or the Subway. That's all they do. They get it wrong a lot. Like a lot a lot... Here comes the main point. When you have a top 50 player in the NHL, you don't trade them just to manage the cap or their contract length or whatever other asset management technique. They are essentially irreplaceable. The difficulty in obtaining another one is very high. I know that means potentially being a mediocre team as they win you enough games to maybe sneak into the playoffs but not enough to win the cup. That is frustrating. There is no sure fire fix for this. You can't stockpile 7th round picks by trading Matthew Highmore's and 3rd round picks by trading Luke Schenn's and tanking for a 1st overall and guarantee yourself a contender for the cup. You can't asset manage your way to the cup. You have to build a team. You have to get lucky by getting some truely exceptional players. There is no logical formula of getting a McDavid. You might get DiPietro or Diagle instead. Most importantly, everything is obvious in hindsight. I would argue that truely exceptional players (top 50 in the NHL), unless they are locker room cancers, make younger players better than good coaching makes them better. Nashville became a defensive factory for a long time Weber, Suter, Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, etc...precisely because the younger incoming players had someone to learn from and lookup to. The Sedin's learnt a lot from Naslund, Bertuzzi and Morrison. That experience is unquantifiable. This isn't a video game. They are human beings they have feelings and experience emotion. It's is exciting and intimidating to be on an NHL roster as a young man. You don't just achieve your potential just because the coaching is good. There are many factors that go into it. Winning games also has a significant impact on development. Sports is about confidence. If you are loosing all the time that means you have less of the puck. No matter how good you are, you are not going to play as well as you can under those circumstances. That has a cumulative affect on players. Bad games turn into slumps and slumps into demotions and then you find yourself in Europe...I would argue that there a lot of players that never made it to the NHL that could have great careers under different circumstances. We simply undervalue the human element here. This isn't the stock market, and they are not robots. Lastly, Miller doesn't need to be traded. I think Alvin is showing that realization as well. If its just a 1st round pick and two B level prospects then its sounds great asset management wise, but its not going to make the team meaningfully better in the future. Again it can, but it is improbable. I am not against a trade. I just don't want low quality. They have to get a significant young player back. Someone already in the NHL. Linden for Bertuzzi and McCabe comes to mind. Two young players with promise already playing the NHL. Yes it was a gamble, but it always had a higher probability of working out as both players were already playing pro-hockey successfully. There was no doubt that they were NHL players. I don't know if a trade like that is available for Miller. If it is then I would hope that they would consider it. Lafreniere and Schnieder comes to mind...Maybe you add something as Lafreniere is a former 1st overall, but its the type of trade that makes sense. Trading Miller just to manage the asset is nonsense. Keep him and let him help improve the young forwards this team already has. A year is forever in hockey. A lot could change. Boeser could get trade or go down with a career ending injury or whatever else. You never know what is going to happen between now and the end of next season. Heck Miller might score 100 points next season in Vancouver and lead them to a division title. Not likely, but it is possible. hahahahaha that's a joke in the same vain as the certainty of getting a Miller back for a random first round pick which is likely 20-30th overall as only a cup contender is going to want him. Edited February 19, 2022 by CaptainLinden16 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-P Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, CaptainLinden16 said: This will be my last attempt. There is an over emphasis on asset management in the dialogues on these forums. Inevitably more than one variable must be considered. Contract term and length are part of that. You have no idea whether or not Miller will be here after his contract expires( if it even gets to that point) neither do I. You assert opinions not facts. The logic is not plain wrong that we likely wont get Miller back in a trade. The odds are heavy against that. I get the sentiment well we should try our best to make it happen. Basic understanding of mathematics and statistics will make it plain that any trade for futures leads to a low probability of obtaining a player like Miller in the future. That doesn't mean its not possible. It is simply improbable. Again, I get the sentiment that something is better than nothing. I am not arguing that every players contract should be allowed to expire without receiving anything return. Its that it is better to make a hockey trade if possible. Not a trade for futures. It wouldn't be difficult to cherry pick draft picks from the last 10 years in the first round and construct a team of high quality NHL players. It also wouldn't be difficult, easier in fact, to construct a team of non-NHL players with 1st round draft picks in the last 10 years. There are 32 teams full of highly skilled professional scouting personnel spending all of their time assessing these players. They don't do it in-between their day jobs at Microsoft or the Subway. That's all they do. They get it wrong a lot. Like a lot a lot... Here comes the main point. When you have a top 50 player in the NHL, you don't trade them just to manage the cap or their contract length or whatever other asset management technique. They are essentially irreplaceable. The difficulty in obtaining another one is very high. I know that means potentially being a mediocre team as they win you enough games to maybe sneak into the playoffs but not enough to win the cup. That is frustrating. There is no sure fire fix for this. You can't stockpile 7th round picks by trading Matthew Highmore's and 3rd round picks by trading Luke Schenn's and tanking for a 1st overall and guarantee yourself a contender for the cup. You can't asset manage your way to the cup. You have to build a team. You have to get lucky by getting some truely exceptional players. There is no logical formula of getting a McDavid. You might get DiPietro or Diagle instead. Most importantly, everything is obvious in hindsight. I would argue that truely exceptional players (top 50 in the NHL), unless they are locker room cancers, make younger players better than good coaching makes them better. Nashville became a defensive factory for a long time Weber, Suter, Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, etc...precisely because the younger incoming players had someone to learn from and lookup to. The Sedin's learnt a lot from Naslund, Bertuzzi and Morrison. That experience is unquantifiable. This isn't a video game. They are human beings they have feelings and experience emotion. It's is exciting and intimidating to be on an NHL roster as a young man. You don't just achieve your potential just because the coaching is good. There are many factors that go into it. Winning games also has a significant impact on development. Sports is about confidence. If you are loosing all the time that means you have less of the puck. No matter how good you are, you are not going to play as well as you can under those circumstances. That has a cumulative affect on players. Bad games turn into slumps and slumps into demotions and then you find yourself in Europe...I would argue that there a lot of players that never made it to the NHL that could have great careers under different circumstances. We simply undervalue the human element here. This isn't the stock market, and they are not robots. Lastly, Miller doesn't need to be traded. I think Alvin is showing that realization as well. If its just a 1st round pick and two B level prospects then its sounds great asset management wise, but its not going to make the team meaningfully better in the future. Again it can, but it is improbable. I am not against a trade. I just don't want low quality. They have to get a significant young player back. Someone already in the NHL. Linden for Bertuzzi and McCabe comes to mind. Two young players with promise already playing the NHL. Yes it was a gamble, but it always had a higher probability of working out as both players were already playing pro-hockey successfully. There was no doubt that they were NHL players. I don't know if a trade like that is available for Miller. If it is then I would hope that they would consider it. Lafreniere and Schnieder comes to mind...Maybe you add something as Lafreniere is a former 1st overall, but its the type of trade that makes sense. Trading Miller just to manage the asset is nonsense. Keep him and let him help improve the young forwards this team already has. A year is forever in hockey. A lot could change. Boeser could get trade or go down with a career ending injury or whatever else. You never know what is going to happen between now and the end of next season. Heck Miller might score 100 points next season in Vancouver and lead them to a division title. Not likely, but it is possible. hahahahaha that's a joke in the same vain as the certainty of getting a Miller back for a random first round pick which is likely 20-30th overall as only a cup contender is going to want him. At the next deadline we should trade Miller from a pure asset management perspective if he won't be resigned, but this year you're right, asset management is not an issue. Either we get a deal too good to pass up on, like Laf and Schneider, or we just keep him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, CaptainLinden16 said: This will be my last attempt. There is an over emphasis on asset management in the dialogues on these forums. Inevitably more than one variable must be considered. Contract term and length are part of that. You have no idea whether or not Miller will be here after his contract expires( if it even gets to that point) neither do I. You assert opinions not facts. The logic is not plain wrong that we likely wont get Miller back in a trade. The odds are heavy against that. I get the sentiment well we should try our best to make it happen. Basic understanding of mathematics and statistics will make it plain that any trade for futures leads to a low probability of obtaining a player like Miller in the future. That doesn't mean its not possible. It is simply improbable. Again, I get the sentiment that something is better than nothing. I am not arguing that every players contract should be allowed to expire without receiving anything return. Its that it is better to make a hockey trade if possible. Not a trade for futures. It wouldn't be difficult to cherry pick draft picks from the last 10 years in the first round and construct a team of high quality NHL players. It also wouldn't be difficult, easier in fact, to construct a team of non-NHL players with 1st round draft picks in the last 10 years. There are 32 teams full of highly skilled professional scouting personnel spending all of their time assessing these players. They don't do it in-between their day jobs at Microsoft or the Subway. That's all they do. They get it wrong a lot. Like a lot a lot... Here comes the main point. When you have a top 50 player in the NHL, you don't trade them just to manage the cap or their contract length or whatever other asset management technique. They are essentially irreplaceable. The difficulty in obtaining another one is very high. I know that means potentially being a mediocre team as they win you enough games to maybe sneak into the playoffs but not enough to win the cup. That is frustrating. There is no sure fire fix for this. You can't stockpile 7th round picks by trading Matthew Highmore's and 3rd round picks by trading Luke Schenn's and tanking for a 1st overall and guarantee yourself a contender for the cup. You can't asset manage your way to the cup. You have to build a team. You have to get lucky by getting some truely exceptional players. There is no logical formula of getting a McDavid. You might get DiPietro or Diagle instead. Most importantly, everything is obvious in hindsight. I would argue that truely exceptional players (top 50 in the NHL), unless they are locker room cancers, make younger players better than good coaching makes them better. Nashville became a defensive factory for a long time Weber, Suter, Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, etc...precisely because the younger incoming players had someone to learn from and lookup to. The Sedin's learnt a lot from Naslund, Bertuzzi and Morrison. That experience is unquantifiable. This isn't a video game. They are human beings they have feelings and experience emotion. It's is exciting and intimidating to be on an NHL roster as a young man. You don't just achieve your potential just because the coaching is good. There are many factors that go into it. Winning games also has a significant impact on development. Sports is about confidence. If you are loosing all the time that means you have less of the puck. No matter how good you are, you are not going to play as well as you can under those circumstances. That has a cumulative affect on players. Bad games turn into slumps and slumps into demotions and then you find yourself in Europe...I would argue that there a lot of players that never made it to the NHL that could have great careers under different circumstances. We simply undervalue the human element here. This isn't the stock market, and they are not robots. Lastly, Miller doesn't need to be traded. I think Alvin is showing that realization as well. If its just a 1st round pick and two B level prospects then its sounds great asset management wise, but its not going to make the team meaningfully better in the future. Again it can, but it is improbable. I am not against a trade. I just don't want low quality. They have to get a significant young player back. Someone already in the NHL. Linden for Bertuzzi and McCabe comes to mind. Two young players with promise already playing the NHL. Yes it was a gamble, but it always had a higher probability of working out as both players were already playing pro-hockey successfully. There was no doubt that they were NHL players. I don't know if a trade like that is available for Miller. If it is then I would hope that they would consider it. Lafreniere and Schnieder comes to mind...Maybe you add something as Lafreniere is a former 1st overall, but its the type of trade that makes sense. Trading Miller just to manage the asset is nonsense. Keep him and let him help improve the young forwards this team already has. A year is forever in hockey. A lot could change. Boeser could get trade or go down with a career ending injury or whatever else. You never know what is going to happen between now and the end of next season. Heck Miller might score 100 points next season in Vancouver and lead them to a division title. Not likely, but it is possible. hahahahaha that's a joke in the same vain as the certainty of getting a Miller back for a random first round pick which is likely 20-30th overall as only a cup contender is going to want him. Great job articulating the point I've been trying to make for weeks now. Glad there's some fans that see this the same way I do. Now brace yourself for the onslaught of CDCers that think trading Miller MUST happen otherwise this team will suck forever and ever lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, HKSR said: Great job articulating the point I've been trying to make for weeks now. Glad there's some fans that see this the same way I do. Now brace yourself for the onslaught of CDCers that think trading Miller MUST happen otherwise this team will suck forever and ever lol yeah, no one is sayng dump Miller for a 1st and a cpl b prospects. No one 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, stawns said: yeah, no one is sayng dump Miller for a 1st and a cpl b prospects. No one Problem is the proposals here are unrealistic. What do you think we would get for Miller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentSam Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Happy to see Alvin say that Miller is our best player and his leadership qualities are something that can not be replaced. Having said that, imagine the Leadership Hole with this club if he is moved. We basically move back to Bo Brock and Hughes ? Lmao Leadership, like Millers is worth 1-2 m a season on top of a ppg as a player. If age is red flag for some , then raise a red flag once you get “younger” by trading in him and his leadership is gone, and we turn to hoping our draft picks turn into players. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleysteamersmyl Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 21 hours ago, KirkSave said: Canucks get pushed around a lot, with very few of our players able and willing to push back. Outside of Schenn, Miller and maybe Myers. Burroughs has some grit to his game. Hits lots and is willing to stick up for himself and his teammates. Ovi, even though he is a star and stud player, throws his weight around and doesn't shy away from that side of the game. I'm not saying everybody needs to drop the gloves or throw bone crushing hits but when someone takes liberties with a teammate, I want to see more team toughness and togetherness, sticking up for one another with meaning. Like last game when Motte got pushed around, Miller came to his defense in an engaged manner, whereas Bo, our C, was lackluster in his response. If we want to be tough as a team and have a culture where we sincerely stick up for one another, it starts with our C. He needs to lead by example. Jannick Hansen was on the radio the other day, saying the Nucks need a big tough guy on the 4th line. Who can response to the other tough guy tactics. He said the other players will feel 3 inches bigger taller and bigger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainLinden16 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 (edited) 47 minutes ago, stawns said: yeah, no one is sayng dump Miller for a 1st and a cpl b prospects. No one That is precisely what asset management is. That's precisely what the thought process is. Lets get something now while he has maximum value regardless of the actual outcome as he will eventually be worth zero. The secret is that everyone is eventually zero as no one is still playing NHL hockey indefinitely. The unquantifiable value (winning, development, etc...) of retaining the player is worth something. The value of Miller for 1.5 years is not equal to zero. I have no idea what the probability of him resigning is, but that also has some value. Asset management is all about keeping the balance sheet positive regardless of the team building aspect. This is the same approach as drafting best player available rather than positional need. JT Millers own draft year had 7 players (including himself) having equal or better career point totals than him. All of which were drafted in the top 8. 7/30 = 23%. You have a 23% chance of replacing Miller with a random 1st round pick in his own draft. You have a 0% chance with a pick 20-30 (0/10). So you could have traded Miller for 10 1st round picks from cup contending teams and came up with players of a significant lower quality than Miller. This is crucially important. The 2011 draft isn't even representative of the average draft. If we are talking about the 2012 draft, Flip Forsberg is the only player with higher point total than Miller. That's a 1/30 or 3% chance! A 3% chance! Someone could crunch the numbers but I would assume it's probably closer to 12-16%. That's not very good. Two 1st round picks would be considered a haul, by most, for Miller that's at best a 32% chance. Yikes! I am trying to draw the rarity of having a player of this high a quality. He isn't 35. We shouldn't be playing hot potato. One last thought, he is a bit of a late bloomer as his productivity curve is still arcing upwards which is not the case with all of the players ahead of him. This undoubtedly makes him a better player than even some who have more careers points which would lower the percentages further. Edited February 19, 2022 by CaptainLinden16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12345 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, stawns said: Again, that's the game I love, the game I played. I fought in close to 75% of the games I played in Jr.........I was the guy the coach tapped on the shoulder when a situation needed to be taken care of. That doesn't change the reality of the current NHL. Oh no way haha didn't think you'd be a scrapper awesome! Edited February 19, 2022 by Chris12345 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timråfan Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 55 minutes ago, CaptainLinden16 said: That is precisely what asset management is. That's precisely what the thought process is. Lets get something now while he has maximum value regardless of the actual outcome as he will eventually be worth zero. The secret is that everyone is eventually zero as no one is still playing NHL hockey indefinitely. The unquantifiable value (winning, development, etc...) of retaining the player is worth something. The value of Miller for 1.5 years is not equal to zero. I have no idea what the probability of him resigning is, but that also has some value. Asset management is all about keeping the balance sheet positive regardless of the team building aspect. This is the same approach as drafting best player available rather than positional need. JT Millers own draft year had 7 players (including himself) having equal or better career point totals than him. All of which were drafted in the top 8. 7/30 = 23%. You have a 23% chance of replacing Miller with a random 1st round pick in his own draft. You have a 0% chance with a pick 20-30 (0/10). So you could have traded Miller for 10 1st round picks from cup contending teams and came up with players of a significant lower quality than Miller. This is crucially important. The 2011 draft isn't even representative of the average draft. If we are talking about the 2012 draft, Flip Forsberg is the only player with higher point total than Miller. That's a 1/30 or 3% chance! A 3% chance! Someone could crunch the numbers but I would assume it's probably closer to 12-16%. That's not very good. Two 1st round picks would be considered a haul, by most, for Miller that's at best a 32% chance. Yikes! I am trying to draw the rarity of having a player of this high a quality. He isn't 35. We shouldn't be playing hot potato. One last thought, he is a bit of a late bloomer as his productivity curve is still arcing upwards which is not the case with all of the players ahead of him. This undoubtedly makes him a better player than even some who have more careers points which would lower the percentages further. Well, J Gaudreu was picked in the 4th round so we might go after ten 4th rounders instead… What almost all here say is that we trade Miller for a kings ransom. If we don’t get the perfect players/picks he stays. If we as fans have an unrealistic view of Millers value is one thing but he stays if we don’t get what we want. First is a talented RHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timråfan Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, HKSR said: Great job articulating the point I've been trying to make for weeks now. Glad there's some fans that see this the same way I do. Now brace yourself for the onslaught of CDCers that think trading Miller MUST happen otherwise this team will suck forever and ever lol Please, tell me who talks like that about the Millertrade? Partly some of us are damaged by Bennings bad record regarding communication and loosing out on players without anything coming back. But we’re not fools Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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