Miller is a core player

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

Ok, here's my take on it with actual numbers.  Assuming a $1M bump in the cap each year.  Although we are hearing that the 2024-25 season may see a significant increase due to escrow being paid back to the owners.  In which case, we definitely can afford all of our forwards.

 

Boeser at $7.5M AAV

Bo at $7.5M AAV

Miller at $8M AAV

Petey at $8.5M AAV

 

Petey is the question mark.  Is he gonna be a Top 10 player in the league?  Or is the current Petey more of who he is at a steady PPG which means he's more of a Tier 2 level star (Tier 1 level being McDavid, Draisatl, Kucherov, Kaprizov, etc).  I used Sebastian Aho as a comparable who scored 66pts in 68gms before signing his big deal.

 

Hogs and Podz both get $4M AAV deals, likely bridge contracts.  Unless they REALLY start putting up big numbers, this is probably realistic. 

Motte extended at $2M AAV. 

 

Pearson needs to be traded in the last year of his deal.  Either that or Dickinson needs to go. 

Finally, when Myers' current deal is up, I doubt we see him making $6M AAV again.  I dropped his AAV by $1M down to $5M AAV.

Anyways, bottom line is that keeping all 4 of Petey, Miller, Bo, and Boeser is completely possible.  Unless you can trade JT Miller for a young impact centre, all we do is create a hole that needs to be filled again.  Who would replace him at either 2C or 3C?

IMO, we need to reallocate some of that F money to a top pair, RHD. Hence one of the reasons for trading one of Miller/Boeser.

 

As for 3C? Nick Paul is UFA this summer...

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

IMO, we need to reallocate some of that F money to a top pair, RHD. Hence one of the reasons for trading one of Miller/Boeser.

 

As for 3C? Nick Paul is UFA this summer...

It'd be nice, but what top pair RHD is worth a JT Miller?

 

Sorry, let me rephrase that... what top pair RHD that is available would be worth a JT Miller?

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by HKSR

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

IMO, we need to reallocate some of that F money to a top pair, RHD. Hence one of the reasons for trading one of Miller/Boeser.

 

As for 3C? Nick Paul is UFA this summer...

And also, Nick Paul is on pace for 18pts this year.  JT Miller is on pace for 85pts. 

 

How do we make up the 67pts that we lose?  I highly doubt a single addition of a RHD defenceman will make that much of a difference to the numbers of a goalie like Demko.

[aGENT]

Just now, HKSR said:

It'd be nice, but what top pair RHD is worth a JT Miller?

 

Sorry, let me rephrase that... what top pair RHD that is available would be worth a JT Miller?

 

I haven't got the ear of 31 other GM's, so I have no idea. I'll leave that for Rutherford and co to sort out.

 

And it might not be just Miller. Perhaps we package him with Rathbone (who, while certainly talented, really doesn't have a spot on this roster behind Hughes and OEL on the left)?

 

Not necessarily these specifically, but something like:

 

Maybe the NYI's didn't like how this season went and want to concentrate on Pulock and Mayfield as their top 2 RHD (Mayfield is due a raise in a year) and recognize they need more top 6 F help for Barzal? Dobson will also be requiring a an extension/raise this summer as well.

 

Something like Miller, Poolman and Rathbone for Dobson, Czikas and a pick +/-?

 

Pulock, Mayfield, Poolman is still a pretty damn good right side, they get a massive upgrade at F and a potentially very good, young puck moving LD. We get a young, top pair ceiling RHD and a solid, gritty 3C to maintain C depth and somewhat balance cap.

 

Or perhaps Severson has no plans to re-sign in NJD? Miller + Poolman for Severson + Bahl +/-.

 

Something along those lines. But again, that's up to management.

[aGENT]

11 minutes ago, HKSR said:

And also, Nick Paul is on pace for 18pts this year.  JT Miller is on pace for 85pts. 

 

How do we make up the 67pts that we lose?  I highly doubt a single addition of a RHD defenceman will make that much of a difference to the numbers of a goalie like Demko.

Nick Paul isn't replacing Miller or his offensive production. He's maintaining C depth and grit, ability to PK, win draws etc.

 

You don't replace Miller. Not easily/readily anyway. Perhaps eventually with a prospect, trade etc. Podkolzin likely fills a similar role eventually. But right now you simply don't. You sacrifice the right now for the 2 years from now with the team more fleshed out and guys like Petey, Hughes, Podkolzin, Hoglander etc are in their actual primes and complimented with cheaper younger pieces you get from trading Miller... instead of a 30+, expensive, wearing and slowing down Miller.

 

Do you want to be slightly better right now when we're not ready to contend, or better when we are? That's what it really comes down to.

[HKSR]

4 minutes ago, aGENT said:

I haven't got the ear of 31 other GM's, so I have no idea. I'll leave that for Rutherford and co to sort out.

 

And it might not be just Miller. Perhaps we package him with Rathbone (who, while certainly talented, really doesn't have a spot on this roster behind Hughes and OEL on the left)?

 

Not necessarily these specifically, but something like:

 

Maybe the NYI's didn't like how this season went and want to concentrate on Pulock and Mayfield as their top 2 RHD (Mayfield is due a raise in a year) and recognize they need more top 6 F help for Barzal? Dobson will also be requiring a an extension/raise this summer as well.

 

Something like Miller, Poolman and Rathbone for Dobson, Czikas and a pick +/-?

 

Pulock, Mayfield, Poolman is still a pretty damn good right side, they get a massive upgrade at F and a potentially very good, young puck moving LD. We get a young, top pair ceiling RHD and a solid, gritty 3C to maintain C depth and somewhat balance cap.

 

Or perhaps Severson has no plans to re-sign in NJD? Miller + Poolman for Severson + Bahl +/-.

 

Something along those lines. But again, that's up to management.

I just don't know if JT Miller (who is 12th overall in NHL scoring right now) would be wise to give away for a RHD defenceman that MIGHT live up to their expectation.  That could potentially throw off any hopes of a Cup run completely.

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

Nick Paul isn't replacing Miller or his offensive production. He's maintaining C depth and grit, ability to PK, win draws etc.

 

You don't replace Miller. Not easily/readily anyway. Perhaps eventually with a prospect, trade etc. Podkolzin likely fills a similar role eventually. But right now you simply don't. You sacrifice the right now for the 2 years from now with the team more fleshed out and guys like Petey, Hughes, Podkolzin, Hoglander etc are in their actual primes and complimented with cheaper younger pieces you get from trading Miller... instead of a 30+, expensive, wearing and slowing down Miller.

 

Do you want to be slightly better right now when we're not ready to contend, or better when we are? That's what it really comes down to.

I guess it all depends.  This current team is 6-0 under a legitimate coach, and that's with playing with a weakened D core, and possibly covid running through the team. 

 

What if this is legitimate?  What if this current team goes on a complete tear and plays 0.750 hockey the rest of the way? 

 

Surprisingly, when Hamonic returns, the RHD looks like:

 

Myers

Poolman

Hamonic

Schenn

Burroughs

 

I'm not 100% convinced we need to upgrade by selling off arguably the best forward on the team for a slight upgrade on Poolman.  Especially when the LHD has Hughes and OEL anchoring the Top 4.

[shiznak]

Miller would be a core player, if he was there years younger.

 

IMO, I don’t see him staying after his current contract is up nor do we have the cap space to retain him.

[BCNate]

I genuinely believe that had this group not improved after the coaching change, Miller would have been dealt to address our Right D.  The core as it was was not getting it done, and there for sure would have been changes to it.  

 

The way this group is playing, wins aside, proves what this team can do.  I expect that the core of this team will be together through the end of the year, up until the contract talks begin.  This summer Boeser will need to be re signed, and Miller and Horvat are likely signed or dealt.  I think all 3 will be signed for 6-7 years at 7-8 mil. That only adds about 4-5 mill to our cap, but will lead to some tough decisions down the road.

[HKSR]

4 minutes ago, BCNate said:

I genuinely believe that had this group not improved after the coaching change, Miller would have been dealt to address our Right D.  The core as it was was not getting it done, and there for sure would have been changes to it.  

 

The way this group is playing, wins aside, proves what this team can do.  I expect that the core of this team will be together through the end of the year, up until the contract talks begin.  This summer Boeser will need to be re signed, and Miller and Horvat are likely signed or dealt.  I think all 3 will be signed for 6-7 years at 7-8 mil. That only adds about 4-5 mill to our cap, but will lead to some tough decisions down the road.

As I've shown, moving on from Pearson is $3.25M of that 4-5M increase.  If need be, I'd move on from Dickinson as well. 

 

Pearson and Dickinson out is $5.9M. 

 

Motte can move up, and Lockwood can move in as well.  I'd rather have a problem trying to fill out the 4th line than trying to find another core player like Miller (12th in NHL scoring right now) or Boeser (potential 35-40 goal scorer).

[aGENT]

32 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I guess it all depends.  This current team is 6-0 under a legitimate coach, and that's with playing with a weakened D core, and possibly covid running through the team. 

 

What if this is legitimate?  What if this current team goes on a complete tear and plays 0.750 hockey the rest of the way? 

As I already said:

 

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

By all means, if the team gets back/stays in the playoff hunt under Bruce, we're not trading him at this TDL. But if we fall off ...? 

 

After that, it makes sense IMO to talk to his agent this summer about a potential extension. If it's not team friendly like above, or if we get a "intends to explore free agency" response... We best be trading him. This team CANNOT afford to let him walk for nothing.

If what you said happens, clearly we're not moving him this TDL.

 

You guys also need to recognize that (even without all the age etc concerns) him not wanting to stay/wanting to explore free agency is probably the most likely scenario. Are you ok with us letting him walk to FA without ANY trade return? Something tells me a lot of you would be the first to complain when/if that happens

 

32 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Surprisingly, when Hamonic returns, the RHD looks like:

 

Myers

Poolman

Hamonic

Schenn

Burroughs

 

I'm not 100% convinced we need to upgrade by selling off arguably the best forward on the team for a slight upgrade on Poolman.  Especially when the LHD has Hughes and OEL anchoring the Top 4.

 

I agree it's not bad. Half decent even (contrary to a lot of naysayers I've been arguing with ). But again, this isn't about RIGHT NOW. It's about building for the prime contention period of our core in 2-7 years +/- from now.

 

Hamonic is gone next year (I hope we trade him next TDL as well FWIW). Myers the year after that. We NEED a succession plan for our contention window. Guys like Woo, maybe Juulsen etc can likely fill in some bottom pair/spare spots in the next couple years but we need someone to play alongside Hughes and OEL in the top 4. I mean here's hoping a guy like Persson or Myernberg lotto tickets in to a 2nd pair capable guy or something but we still need at top 4 (preferably top 2), RHD, not matter how good Hughes and OEL are (and OEL likely starts to regress to a 2nd pair D in that time frame as well).

Edited December 17, 2021 by aGENT

[shiznak]

5 minutes ago, HKSR said:

As I've shown, moving on from Pearson is $3.25M of that 4-5M increase.  If need be, I'd move on from Dickinson as well. 

 

Pearson and Dickinson out is $5.9M. 

 

Motte can move up, and Lockwood can move in as well.  I'd rather have a problem trying to fill out the 4th line than trying to find another core player like Miller (12th in NHL scoring right now) or Boeser (potential 35-40 goal scorer).

Both Pearson and to a lesser extent Dickinson have negative value. I don’t expect teams lining up asking for their services, unless we attach a first round pick in the deal.

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, aGENT said:

As I already said:

 

If what you said happens, clearly we're not moving him this TDL.

 

You guys also need to recognize that (even without all the age etc concerns) him not wanting to stay/wanting to explore free agency is probably the most likely scenario. Are you ok with us letting him walk to FA without ANY trade return? Something tells me a lot of you would be the first to complain when/if that happens

 

 

I agree it's not bad. Half decent even (contrary to a lot of naysayers I've been arguing with ). But again, this isn't about RIGHT NOW. It's about building for the prime contention period of our core in 2-7 years +/- from now.

 

Hamonic is gone next year (I hope we trade him next TDL as well FWIW). Myers the year after that. We NEED a succession plan for our contention window. Guys like Woo, maybe Juulsen etc can likely fill in some bottom pair/spare spots in the next couple years but we need someone to play alongside Hughes and OEL in the top 4. I mean here's hoping a guy like Persson or Myernberg lotto tickets in to a 2nd pair capable guy or something but we still need at top 4 (preferably top 2), RHD, not matter how good Hughes and OEL are (and OEL likely starts to regress to a 2nd pair D in that time frame as well).

Miller is 28yo.  He's not 34yo.  I'd say he has 4 very solid years left in his game.  After that, he may regress, but seeing that he's basically a PPG player that can play in all situations and is a leader, he will still be highly effective in 5 to 6 years as a 3C.  Right now, he's our 1C (12th overall in NHL scoring affirms that). 

 

Like I mentioned above, I'd much rather lose Pearson and Dickinson for a savings of $5.9M to keep our core together.  We have Lockwood ready to step in, and Motte could easily move up the lineup.  Make the problem one about filling out our 4th line.

 

Move Rathbone and whatever else for that 2nd pairing RHD if need be... but don't move a player like Miller when he's still in his 20s.

[HKSR]

7 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Both Pearson and to a lesser extent Dickinson have negative value. I don’t expect teams lining up asking for their services, unless we attach a first round pick in the deal.

I disagree.  They're the kind of players that are highly useful in the playoffs.  A team picking them up on the last year of their contract at TDL means their effective cap hits are under $2M each.

 

Both of them are highly underrated around here.  No, they won't put up huge numbers, but as 3rd line or bottom tier 2nd line complimentary players, they're very effective.  Especially controlling the boards.

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by HKSR

[aGENT]

Just now, HKSR said:

Miller is 28yo.  He's not 34yo.  I'd say he has 4 very solid years left in his game.  After that, he may regress, but seeing that he's basically a PPG player that can play in all situations and is a leader, he will still be highly effective in 5 to 6 years as a 3C.  Right now, he's our 1C (12th overall in NHL scoring affirms that). 

 

Like I mentioned above, I'd much rather lose Pearson and Dickinson for a savings of $5.9M to keep our core together.  We have Lockwood ready to step in, and Motte could easily move up the lineup.  Make the problem one about filling out our 4th line.

 

Move Rathbone and whatever else for that 2nd pairing RHD if need be... but don't move a player like Miller when he's still in his 20s.

He'll be 29 shortly. He will be 30 when his current contract expires. Like I already said earlier, if we get to this summer and he's willing to sign a +/- 4 year deal at +/- $7m that mitigates risk to the Canucks from competing 2-7 years from now, I'm thrilled to retain him. Have at'er.

 

Honestly, how realistic do you think it is that he signs a deal like that here? 

[shiznak]

2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I disagree.  They're the kind of players that are highly useful in the playoffs.  A team picking them up on the last year of their contract at TDL means their effective cap hits are under $2M each.

 

They still have one more year left on their contract, when we need to extend both Miller and Horvat. So, the team acquiring them will need to take on their full caphit.

[higgyfan]

In the end, I think the decision will be made by Miller.  Most NHL players have 'winning a SC' as their main goal.  You can bet a passionate guy like JT is even more set on reaching that goal than most.  I don't see the Canucks winning a SC anytime soon, so I think Millsy will choose to go elsewhere (or ask for a ridiculous amount of $, NMC and term).  He would love to reach UFA, but the Canucks will trade him long before that happens.

 

JT will be traded to a hungry contender that is throwing everything on the line to win.  He will garner some very valuable assets; including picks/prospects and a good young player and it will be worth it for the contending team.

JT Miller is the kind of player that will win his team a SC.

 

I don't want to see him moved, but I can't see a way of keeping him in Van.  He will leave a huge gap on the team; both on and off the ice, and the team will suffer regardless of the return. 

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

He'll be 29 shortly. He will be 30 when his current contract expires. Like I already said earlier, if we get to this summer and he's willing to sign a +/- 4 year deal at +/- $7m that mitigates risk to the Canucks from competing 2-7 years from now, I'm thrilled to retain him. Have at'er.

 

Honestly, how realistic do you think it is that he signs a deal like that here? 

Assuming players are in their prime between 25 and 30, by your argument about Miller being 30:   Petey is 24 soon and will be 25 and entering his prime.  Boeser will be 25 soon and will be 26 (in his prime).  Horvat will be 27 soon and will be 28 (in his prime), Garland will be 26 soon and will be 27 (in his prime), and most importantly Demko will be 27 soon and will be 28 (in his prime). 

 

Is that then the time to move JT Miller?  When nearly all of the forward core is in their prime?  And the franchise Vezina calibre goaltender is right in his prime as well?

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, shiznak said:

They still have one more year left on their contract, when we need to extend both Miller and Horvat. So, the team acquiring them will need to take on their full caphit.

Not sure if you saw my earlier post, but we can afford them while only having to move Pearson.

 

[aGENT]

8 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Assuming players are in their prime between 25 and 30, by your argument about Miller being 30:   Petey is 24 soon and will be 25 and entering his prime.  Boeser will be 25 soon and will be 26 (in his prime).  Horvat will be 27 soon and will be 28 (in his prime), Garland will be 26 soon and will be 27 (in his prime), and most importantly Demko will be 27 soon and will be 28 (in his prime). 

 

Is that then the time to move JT Miller?  When nearly all of the forward core is in their prime?  And the franchise Vezina calibre goaltender is right in his prime as well?

You didn't answer my question.

 

And yes, As you'll note, JT is +/- 5 years older than most of those players and you also left out Hughes (22) Podkolzin (20) and Hoglander (20). They're just entering their primes, he's leaving his. 

 

 

I fully expect us to move Garland when his current (bargain) deal expires as well. Smae reasons.