Miller is a core player

[shiznak]

17 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Not sure if you saw my earlier post, but we can afford them while only having to move Pearson.

 

And like I said, finding a trading partner is easier said than done, behind a computer screen.

I don’t see teams willing to take on his contract at 32, especially a Cup contender, unless we are willing to part ways with a good prospect or a first round pick attached to the deal. 
 

You also likely want to upgrade the bottom six and bottom two pairings, in that lineup. If we want to contend in a few years.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by shiznak

[alt kilgore]

I hope this new management team can figure out a way to keep together, re-sign:

Demko

Bo

Miller

Petey

Boeser

Hughes

Hogs

Podz

 

I'd love to see how a real GM manages to find creative ways to keep all these players together for the next 6 or 7 years.

 

But,....if that is impossible because of the cap not going up, or some other issue, why is it between Miller and Boeser? As most seem to be proposing.   If its one of them, and its preferably one of the ones on the older end of the scale, is it sacrilege to suggest it be Bo?  The way he has been playing of late, his value is probably quite high as well. I'd hate to lose him, and I'd prefer we keep all of those above. But on a true contender, Bo would probably be invaluable as one of the final pieces, especially that he doesn't have to be "the guy".  If it were between Miller and Bo, I'd sadly trade Bo, and then give the Captain C to Miller.

 

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

You didn't answer my question.

 

And yes, As you'll note, JT is +/- 5 years older than most of those players and you also left out Hughes (22) Podkolzin (20) and Hoglander (20). They're just entering their primes, he's leaving his. 

 

 

I fully expect us to move Garland when his current (bargain) deal expires as well. Smae reasons.

I think he would sign a deal in the 7 to 8 year range for $8M AAV. 

 

Honestly, I don't see him that much different than a Joe Pavelski.  If JT Miller can put up 0.6PPG at 35yo, then he's definitely worth the $8M AAV since inflation will likely ease that burden considerable 6 to 8 years from now.

 

There's WAY, WAY too much to lose by losing JT Miller from the lineup -- his offensive output, centre depth, leadership, grit, PK, PP, ... what on Earth do you do to make up for all of that from one single player?

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, shiznak said:

And like I said, finding a trading partner is easier said than done, behind a computer screen.

I don’t see teams willing to take on his contract at 32, especially a Cup contender, unless we are willing to part ways with a good prospect or a first round pick attached to the deal. 
 

You also likely want to upgrade the bottom six and bottom two pairings, in that lineup. If we want to contend in a few years.

 

 

I don't think I'd want to try and replace what JT Miller brings.  I'd sure as heck would be willing to give up a bit more to get rid of Pearson and Dickinson if we keep Miller.  As I posted above... his offensive output, centre depth, leadership, grit, PK, PP, faceoffs, etc... all from a single player.  I'd argue you would need 2, maybe 3 players to make up for all that.

 

And like I also mentioned above, the salary cap is not gonna be flat 6 to 8 years from now.  The likelihood is we will see $1M increases for 2022-23 and 2023-24, then maybe a $3M to $5M increase in 2024-25, and another $3M+ in 2025-26.  That's $8M to $10M increase in cap in the next 5 or 6 years. 

This NEEDS to be taken into consideration.  $8M AAV now is not gonna be that big of an issue 6 to 8 years from now.

Edited December 17, 2021 by HKSR

[aGENT]

4 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I think he would sign a deal in the 7 to 8 year range for $8M AAV. 

 

Honestly, I don't see him that much different than a Joe Pavelski.  If JT Miller can put up 0.6PPG at 35yo, then he's definitely worth the $8M AAV since inflation will likely ease that burden considerable 6 to 8 years from now.

 

There's WAY, WAY too much to lose by losing JT Miller from the lineup -- his offensive output, centre depth, leadership, grit, PK, PP, ... what on Earth do you do to make up for all of that from one single player?

Pavelski is an outlier. I find it highly unlikely Rutherford will gamble on Miller being one as well.

 

He's already laid out the game plan, he wants to continue building towards being a consistent, contending team in a few years when our young core reaches it's prime. That's likely without Miller and certainly not with Miller at $8m x 7 or 8 years.

[IBatch]

10 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

So, trying to pay league average for all 3 categories, looks something like this............................................................

 

Forwards...................50 Million

 

Defense.....................25 Million

 

Goalies.......................6.5 Million 

                                   ========

Total                          81.5 million

 

So, If we pay Miller, Horvat, Boeser and Pettersson all 7.5 million per x 7 years, we have 20 million to pay the next 9 forwards

Currently we are paying the other 9 forwards 16, million = 47 million

 

Currently we are paying  21 million for Hughes, OEL, and Myers

The other 3 are paid 6.3 for Hamonic, Poolman, and Schenn = 27.3 million

 

Goalies are costing us 6.5 million

 

Total..............................80.8 Million (sure the cap will go up 1 million a year, but only 1 million a year)

 

 

 

So how do we fill in a much needed RHD, get a defensive center, and what happens when in 2 years Hoglander, and Podkolzin come off their ELC's?

 

Again, the budget does not fit the players, and we are being held up by Demko to some extent, and the same CDCers, do not have the pertinence to build the team properly.

 

Yes, I love Miller as a player, but he will be 29 before next season, and he does not fit our core, and his next contract is too expensive for a 30 year old

 

Sell high and reap the rewards............sorry people.............nice player, but something has to give!

 

I am not saying what............you tell me!

Ugh cap reality.   Best case we win the cup this year.    Or if we don't trade him because we actually make the playoffs, at least rent him next year ... or win four cups and retire his number after i guess is the best case. 

[Rindiculous]

42 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Both Pearson and to a lesser extent Dickinson have negative value. I don’t expect teams lining up asking for their services, unless we attach a first round pick in the deal.

lol there's no way pearson and dickinson have negative value.  They have very little value, but Pearson is clearly valuable to the Miller line, he's very, very good along the boards, he just has no finish.  Same as Dickinson which is why he wasn't good at centre and looked much better on the wing.  Somebody would pick either of these guys up for a 7th round pick, probably more.

[HKSR]

Just now, aGENT said:

Pavelski is an outlier. I find it highly unlikely Rutherford will gamble on Miller being one as well.

 

He's already laid out the game plan, he wants to continue building towards being a consistent, contending team in a few years when our young core reaches it's prime. That's likely without Miller and certainly not with Miller at $8m x 7 or 8 years.

Why is he an outlier?  That's kind of a convenient way to just ignore the fact that JT Miller is a very similar player to him.

 

I guess Wheeler, Carter, Getzlaf, Perry, Stastny... all PPG type players in their prime and now putting up 0.5 to 0.6PPG are outliers too. 

 

I'll reiterate that 6 to 8 years from now, the cap will likely be $95M+.

[rychicken]

9 minutes ago, kilgore said:

I hope this new management team can figure out a way to keep together, re-sign:

Demko

Bo

Miller

Petey

Boeser

Hughes

Hogs

Podz

 

I'd love to see how a real GM manages to find creative ways to keep all these players together for the next 6 or 7 years.

 

But,....if that is impossible because of the cap not going up, or some other issue, why is it between Miller and Boeser? As most seem to be proposing.   If its one of them, and its preferably one of the ones on the older end of the scale, is it sacrilege to suggest it be Bo?  The way he has been playing of late, his value is probably quite high as well. I'd hate to lose him, and I'd prefer we keep all of those above. But on a true contender, Bo would probably be invaluable as one of the final pieces, especially that he doesn't have to be "the guy".  If it were between Miller and Bo, I'd sadly trade Bo, and then give the Captain C to Miller.

 

many times, when a team is mid-tier or lower, that team (and it's fan base) view their players as having higher market value than they actually viewed by high echelon teams

I agree that it could be Bo that would get traded in your scenario, but I do struggle on what fair market value is for him? 

 

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Pavelski is an outlier. I find it highly unlikely Rutherford will gamble on Miller being one as well.

 

He's already laid out the game plan, he wants to continue building towards being a consistent, contending team in a few years when our young core reaches it's prime. That's likely without Miller and certainly not with Miller at $8m x 7 or 8 years.

Didn't I CLEARLY outline how pretty much the entire forward core will be in their prime when Miller turns 30?  Demko will also be smack in the middle of his prime too. 

[IBatch]

13 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I don't think I'd want to try and replace what JT Miller brings.  I'd sure as heck would be willing to give up a bit more to get rid of Pearson and Dickinson if we keep Miller.  As I posted above... his offensive output, centre depth, leadership, grit, PK, PP, faceoffs, etc... all from a single player.  I'd argue you would need 2, maybe 3 players to make up for all that.

 

And like I also mentioned above, the salary cap is not gonna be flat 6 to 8 years from now.  The likelihood is we will see $1M increases for 2022-23 and 2023-24, then maybe a $3M to $5M increase in 2024-25, and another $3M+ in 2025-26.  That's $8M to $10M increase in cap in the next 5 or 6 years. 

This NEEDS to be taken into consideration.  $8M AAV now is not gonna be that big of an issue 6 to 8 years from now.

Wow that's optimistic.   Already shut downs occurring, MTL completely and TO/OTT down to 50% (not a big deal for revenue in OTT, but two of the top earners it sure is).    This year is heading for a bubble...maybe or a hybrid bubble unless we all get our boosters really.    Bettman already said that there won't be any significant raises until after this CBA is over ...2025-2026.     Miller will be like Stastny was in Vegas, playing the 3rd or fourth line role, making 8.5-9 million by then on his deal.   Still very useful, but not worth the cap hit in other words.    We have others to consider.    Miller to me is going to be this generations Greg Adams.   Guy that was around for awhile and really helped his team.    And we will all love him for it as we already do.    I'd say Cliff Ronning,  but we let him go to pave the way for Wayne Gretzky,    And Cliff had many years left in him in NSH after he left.   Adams maybe isn't accurate, but him and Courtnall come to mind.   

Edited December 17, 2021 by IBatch

[Jester13]

18 minutes ago, shiznak said:

And like I said, finding a trading partner is easier said than done, behind a computer screen.

I don’t see teams willing to take on his contract at 32, especially a Cup contender, unless we are willing to part ways with a good prospect or a first round pick attached to the deal. 
 

You also likely want to upgrade the bottom six and bottom two pairings, in that lineup. If we want to contend in a few years.

 

 

I think you're underrating Pearson and his value. He's still a very good and serviceable player who is also a SC champion. 

 

4 minutes ago, Rindiculous said:

lol there's no way pearson and dickinson have negative value.  They have very little value, but Pearson is clearly valuable to the Miller line, he's very, very good along the boards, he just has no finish.  Same as Dickinson which is why he wasn't good at centre and looked much better on the wing.  Somebody would pick either of these guys up for a 7th round pick, probably more.

Both Pearson and Dickie are worth a 3rd. They're not liabilities in any part of the ice, have size, and don't cost much. 

[IBatch]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Didn't I CLEARLY outline how pretty much the entire forward core will be in their prime when Miller turns 30?  Demko will also be smack in the middle of his prime too. 

And that's the crux.   Why pay 8.5-9 for a guy who's already done his best work when we will need that money to keep other guys?    You can 100% bet, that Miller is at the tippy top of guys to trade given our cycle.   

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, IBatch said:

Wow that's optimistic.   Already shut downs occurring, MTL completely and TO/OTT down to 50% (not a big deal for revenue in OTT, but two of the top earners it sure is).    This year is heading for a bubble...maybe or a hybrid bubble unless we all get our boosters really.    Bettman already said that there won't be any significant raises until after this CBA is over ...2025-2026.     Miller will be like Stastny was in Vegas, playing the 3rd or fourth line role, making 8.5-9 million by then on his deal.   Still very useful, but not worth the cap hit in other words.    We have others to consider.    Miller to me is going to be this generations Greg Adams.   Guy that was around for awhile and really helped his team.    And we will all love him for it as we already do.  

Yeah I am being optimistic based on the only knowledge we have of a global pandemic (Spanish flu).  The Spanish flu was allowed to run rampant and therefore herd immunity kicked in after 2 years.  We are a few months away from 2 years, but reduced the ability for covid to spread as quickly due to vaccination and cleaning protocols.  I suspect we will go through 1 more year of this and we will see the backside of the virus.  Herd immunity WILL happen eventually. 

 

The plan is for players to pay escrow back to owners by 2023-24.  That's why 2024-25 should see a big bump in the cap.

[shiznak]

7 minutes ago, Rindiculous said:

lol there's no way pearson and dickinson have negative value.  They have very little value, but Pearson is clearly valuable to the Miller line, he's very, very good along the boards, he just has no finish.  Same as Dickinson which is why he wasn't good at centre and looked much better on the wing.  Somebody would pick either of these guys up for a 7th round pick, probably more.

Anything below a 4th/5th round pick is basically negative value.

 

 

[HKSR]

Just now, IBatch said:

And that's the crux.   Why pay 8.5-9 for a guy who's already done his best work when we will need that money to keep other guys?    You can 100% bet, that Miller is at the tippy top of guys to trade given our cycle.   

Because of the overall impact he has on the team. 

 

Can you imagine if the Lightning looked at Stamkos and Palat and said, wow, I know they are still amazing players, but they're gonna be 30+ and we want to keep our playoff window open, so time to move them when guys like Point, Kucherov, and Vasilevsky are in or entering their prime. 

 

 

[HKSR]

Just now, shiznak said:

Anything below a 4th/5th round pick is basically negative value.

 

 

Not if it means clearing $5.9M in cap space to keep a guy like Miller.

[IBatch]

Just now, HKSR said:

Yeah I am being optimistic based on the only knowledge we have of a global pandemic (Spanish flu).  The Spanish flu was allowed to run rampant and therefore herd immunity kicked in after 2 years.  We are a few months away from 2 years, but reduced the ability for covid to spread as quickly due to vaccination and cleaning protocols.  I suspect we will go through 1 more year of this and we will see the backside of the virus.  Herd immunity WILL happen eventually. 

 

The plan is for players to pay escrow back to owners by 2023-24.  That's why 2024-25 should see a big bump in the cap.

Not what Bettman said.   He said that there wouldn't be a significant increase in cap until the next CBA.   I believe him after looking at the arithmetic.  Just announced the first one million increase this week.   And now the leagues already getting into the same stuff they did in 2020.   Herd immunity back then occurred a lot quicker then it will now.  You know, first world war and all of that.   Lockdowns etc, waiting for vaccines, anti-vaxxers etc.    It pretty much ran its course.   It absolutely hasn't done that yet today.    And won't for awhile yet. 

[shiznak]

12 minutes ago, Jester13 said:

I think you're underrating Pearson and his value. He's still a very good and serviceable player who is also a SC champion. 

 

Both Pearson and Dickie are worth a 3rd. They're not liabilities in any part of the ice, have size, and don't cost much. 

I’m not undervaluing the player. It’s his contract, (while not that outrageous), that teams will shy away from.

 

7 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Not if it means clearing $5.9M in cap space to keep a guy like Miller.

Again, find a team that will need his service, willing to take on his contract.

 

Philadelphia basically begged Arizona to take on Ghost’s contract, while receiving nothing in return.

Edited December 17, 2021 by shiznak

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Not what Bettman said.   He said that there wouldn't be a significant increase in cap until the next CBA.   I believe him after looking at the arithmetic.  Just announced the first one million increase this week.   And now the leagues already getting into the same stuff they did in 2020.   Herd immunity back then occurred a lot quicker then it will now.  You know, first world war and all of that.   Lockdowns etc, waiting for vaccines, anti-vaxxers etc.    It pretty much ran its course.   It absolutely hasn't done that yet today.    And won't for awhile yet.