How Good Are the Canucks

[JamesB]

The Canucks are about to begin a tough Eastern swing after a long layoff following an impressive winning streak under Boudreau. This might be a good time to think about the how the good the Canucks really are. This tough road trip could bring things back down to earth or could show the Canucks to be a darkhorse threat to go deep in the playoffs. 

 

So how good are they? The turnaround under Boudreau probably ranks in the top 10 of all-time NHL turnarounds, and Boudreau of course tied the NHL record for most consecutive wins by a new coach. 

 

Can the Canucks really be that good?  After all, they looked terrible in the first part of the season, among the worst 3 or 4 teams in the league with far away the worst PK in the league, despite a good goaltender. 

 

And, while the winning streak has been great, the quality of competition was not that high, with only one top-10 opponent in the mix, and the Canucks were fortunate to get 3 OT/SO wins. They also had the best goaltending in the league over that period. Great goaltending often make the coach look like a genius but it has to regress toward the mean at some  point (even if Demko's mean is quite high).

 

But, on a player by player basis, the Canucks should be good. It starts with Demko, of course, but it should not be a surprise to see Miller, Hughes, Boeser, Horvat, and OEL playing great hockey, with Myers finally playing up to a level to more or less match his cap hit.  And Petey still seems to have upward movement ahead. And Garland, Podkolzin, Hoglander, and Pearson should all be good "middle 6" forwards. And we have seen Schenn  play well with Hughes before. 

 

So maybe the Canucks are for real.   Also, Boudreau likes to play his core players a lot,  so having a weak third D pairing and 4th line does not cost much as those guys do not play a lot.  And both PK and PP have improved a lot,  apparently due to different coaching.

 

Personally, I have always liked Boudreau and think he is a better coach than Green (although I don't think Green was that bad). But I think the Canucks had more than their share of back luck in the early part of the season and more than their share of good luck in the streak. I think the current version of the Canucks would be likely to make the playoffs given a fresh start and might make it anyway, although I think their chances are less than 50-50.

 

But I think they need progress in couple of areas before they have a good shot to become cup contenders.  

 

[buddhahoodlum]

No offense OP but I just don't get why or how so many people don't think Green was that bad. Every possible metric has shown Green to have been at best a mediocre coach and at worst kryptonite to our players.  Everything about our current win streak points to this- Green sucked!

[Coconuts]

I think they're a fringe playoff team this season. They could make it, it's possible, but if they get in I don't see em doing much. I think we've got pretty good odds making it next season if the roster is upgraded, but I think the hole we dug early in the season under Green will ultimately catch up with us this season. 

 

I don't view this current roster, as constructed, as a contenders. And by the sounds of it neither does Rutherford. The strengths of this roster are it's goaltending and it's top six, our defense and bottom six need work despite the team playing better defensively under Boudreau. I'm not even interested in discussing contention until this team shows me they can consistently make the playoffs again, full stop. People can hope all they want, and hype the boys up, but talk is cheap and I need to see more consistency first. I don't buy into this "anything can happen come playoff time" bit because LA pulled off a miracle once. We've made the playoffs twice in eight years, give me a better reason than a winning streak to not be skeptical. 

 

Could we be a contender? Sure, but JR's and co have some work to do between now and then imo. 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Coconuts

[Elias Pettersson]

If Boudreau had started the year as the coach and Petey was his old self we would be an easy playoff team capable of winning a round or two.  It also would have helped if Sutter was able to play and Hamonic joined us from the start.

 

It is what it is though, so nothing can be changed.  I think we will make the playoffs this year as there are several teams ahead of us that are slowly coming down to Earth like Edmonton, Anaheim and Calgary.  Should be fun and I think Petey gets back to his old self sooner than people think.

[-AJ-]

Before we started the season, I had a tough time seeing the roster finish too far outside the playoffs. I was predicting we'd either finish just out of the playoffs or barely in, and with what we've seen with Boudreau, I can say I stand by that now. Probably somewhere between 14-18 in NHL standings, though with our horrid start, who knows if we can get to that point or not. Currently our point percentage is 21st in the NHL.

[mordekai]

1 hour ago, JamesB said:

So maybe the Canucks are for real.   Also, Boudreau likes to play his core players a lot,  so having a weak third D pairing and 4th line does not cost much as those guys do not play a lot.  And both PK and PP have improved a lot,  apparently due to different coaching.

That's not the reason why our defense isn't as bad as before.

The reason is we don't give the opponent any time and space in our Offensive zone and neutral zone. We are not stuck in our defensive zone like Green era. 

amongst many other good things Boudreau instills. 

Edited January 11, 2022 by mordekai

[Rindiculous]

At the beginning of the year I was more bullish about our roster than I have in almost a decade.  I did not anticipate Pettersson or Boeser being MIA the first half of the year.  I thought the Canucks could win the division and be top 5-10 in the league.

 

I don’t think I’ve really changed opinions that much.  So many players were underperforming at the start of the year and have started playing much better now.  Also I did not expect our PK to be historically bad.  If Pettersson can get his form back like everyone else does I see us as a top 5 to 10 team in the NHL.  While Demko has been great under Boudreau, our shooting percentage has still been one of the worst in the NHL even under Boudreau.  Once we get that regression to the mean we’re gonna get a lot more goals.  According to expected goals we should have scored about 15-20 goals more than we have this season with average shooting.

 

So because we got such a bad start I probably only see us realistically getting 2nd or 3rd in our division.  However if we go into the playoffs as one of the best teams in the NHL in the last 55 games, we could go far in the playoffs.

[Pbhatti00]

Tough call for Rutherford to make. He wants to get younger, amd thinks this team is not a contender.

 

What does he do? Trade anyone over 26 years old on roster and bring back picks and prosepcts ?  Trade a few players over 26 years old and try to accomplish that or just go all in with the roster he has? 

 

In my opinion, he should trade as many players over age 26 now, get a good return and go all in a few years. 

 

[KirkSave]

This 5 game road trip is going to impact the rest of this season. Canucks will have stiff competition every night and I for one, am very excited to see how they fare against the 4 beasts from the east and the Preds, who are quietly having an outstanding season of their own.

[Toni Zamboni]

[GB5]

Legitimate Cup Contender!!!!!!!!

 

I say this at the beginning of every season. Make the playoffs, get a good run going and anything can happen.

[DownUndaCanuck]

Hard to tell right now, these last 9 games may have just been a positive boost of energy and the guys running on adrenaline whereas this road trip will really be a good measuring stick for how "good" the team really is deep down inside. We're up against strong teams like Florida and Tampa on their home turf who have hardly ever dropped points to the opposition and we're expected to be one of the few rarities of the season to win games there.

 

I think we should be happy if we make .500 on this road trip to be honest, that would be better than most teams do on a trip like this, and then recoup our losses for the rest of the season elsewhere and go on more amazing runs of wins against middle and even playoff-bound teams, not these juggernauts who have pretty much lost 8 games all season combined on home ice.

 

Regardless, I think we're playing like a playoff team right now, we're just not in a playoff position because of how deep a hole Green dug us.

[JamesB]

8 hours ago, buddhahoodlum said:

No offense OP but I just don't get why or how so many people don't think Green was that bad. Every possible metric has shown Green to have been at best a mediocre coach and at worst kryptonite to our players.  Everything about our current win streak points to this- Green sucked!

Thanks for the comment. Don't get me wrong, Boudreau is a much better coach, and a much better fit for the current composition of the team.. I was delighted when Boudreau  was hired. And maybe I am over-rating Green, but I thought he got the maximum possible from the team in 2019-20 and probably in 2018-19 as well. At the time the general consensus was that he was a good coach. 

 

And I admit that he seemed like a decent guy and I always liked him. So maybe that leads me to over-rate him. This year things were very bad but I think part of the problem was that the team got into a negative mind-set and it was hard for Green to pull them out. Sometimes the only solution is to make a coaching change.

 

7 hours ago, mordekai said:

That's not the reason why our defense isn't as bad as before.

The reason is we don't give the opponent any time and space in our Offensive zone and neutral zone. We are not stuck in our defensive zone like Green era. 

amongst many other good things Boudreau instills. 

This is not really my point. Yes, the Canucks are playing a better D system now. But part of the reason the system works is that Hughes gets so much ice time, as do OEL and Myers. 

 

4 hours ago, Pbhatti00 said:

Tough call for Rutherford to make. He wants to get younger, amd thinks this team is not a contender.

 

What does he do? Trade anyone over 26 years old on roster and bring back picks and prosepcts ?  Trade a few players over 26 years old and try to accomplish that or just go all in with the roster he has? 

 

In my opinion, he should trade as many players over age 26 now, get a good return and go all in a few years. 

 

Tough call to make for a team that looks like a playoff quality team, but probably on the right track if the objective is to build a legitimate Cup contender. 

 

One of my biggest problems with Benning is that he always seemed to be focused on trying to build a team just good enough to contend for the playoffs "this year" without any apparent plan to build a Cup contender, which requires getting the timing right so a group of good players peak at the same team and have affordable contracts. 

 

The cap is also an issue now.  Right now  the Canucks cannot even afford to qualify Boeser, for example. If Miller or Pearson were traded, the Canucks probably could re-sign Boeser. But Pearson would not yield much in return. He is probably "fair value" for his current contract but nothing more. Miller, on the other hand, is a great deal and could really help a team for this year's playoff run and for next year. He would yield an excellent return. It would not surprise me to see one of Boeser or Miller traded although it would hurt to see either one of those guys go. . 

 

 

[Me_]

8 hours ago, buddhahoodlum said:

No offense OP but I just don't get why or how so many people don't think Green was that bad. Every possible metric has shown Green to have been at best a mediocre coach and at worst kryptonite to our players.  Everything about our current win streak points to this- Green sucked!

This is getting. Harder and harder to argue against I must admit.

[iinatcc]

I think it will depend on this road trip. At this point this road trip will be sink or swim for the team.

Edited January 11, 2022 by iinatcc

[IBatch]

Nice topic OP.   The only thing i'd consider, is changing the playoff predictions.   I think we have decent to good odds making the playoff because there is a path to it.   Even if we go .500 over this tough part of the schedule we still won't be that far off.    Teams are falling down to earth ahead of us.   Which also isn't at all surprising.    With the exception of ANA but they've feasted on great goaltending all season too...and loser points/OT.    

 

Why i say that is this - i think we are absolutely a legitimate playoff contender (not cup) but once in, who knows ... we'd be a scary team to play against given our winning percentage under Bruce would be impressive.     We aren't a playoff lock...but if we make it winning a round or two is just as if not more likely then the other way around just by keeping it up (unless it's Vegas first then we'd be in tough...but still have a chance!).     This team isn't at all out of it now given the month we had in December.   I doubt the wheels are going to fall off again like they did with Green.    Thankfully Bruce doesn't try and put round pegs in square holes.    

 

Bruce is wise enough not to let the guys get ahead of themselves.    Personally nothing would make me happier, then winning a few rounds ... even one.    It's that sort of experience that helps the GM make finishing touches, and the players gain appreciation for what sort of long long haul it is to win a cup.   And prepare for the next time. 

Edited January 11, 2022 by IBatch

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, iinatcc said:

I think it will depend on this road trip. At this point this road trip will be sink or swim for the team.

Maybe.   But we could still get back into it even with .500 or one game below .500.   It will for sure be telling though.   Hope the guys just keep chipping away at a spot.    Think they have good odds of .500 given how they've played so far under Bruce. 

[Crabcakes]

Fighting for a Wild Card spot.  There's separation between the top teams in the west, the middle and the bottom feeders.  The Canucks are in the middle between 35 (Canucks) and 41 points (LA) which is where the Canucks would be anyways.  Had the Canucks not slumped in the beginning of the season, they would still be in this group, just a little higher up.  7 teams fighting for 2 playoff spots

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Crabcakes said:

Fighting for a Wild Card spot.  There's separation between the top teams in the west, the middle and the bottom feeders.  The Canucks are in the middle between 35 (Canucks) and 41 points (LA) which is where the Canucks would be anyways.  Had the Canucks not slumped in the beginning of the season, they would still be in this group, just a little higher up.  7 teams fighting for 2 playoff spots

Wild card yes.   However the last two spots in our own division are still also in play.   ANA only has one more RW then us, with four more games played.   If I was Gary Roberts, the next time i played them i'd run Gibson.   He's the main reason why they are where they are.   And i have serious doubts they will keep that spot.   It's a fluke season for them really.   Terry?  Who the heck is this guy anyways lol.     All we have to do is win half these games to stay in the run.   I don't think CAL is real and still don't.   EDM isn't a contender either.     There isn't two spots up for grabs, there are four still.   The season isn't even half way done yet.     

[IBatch]

6 hours ago, iinatcc said:

I think it will depend on this road trip. At this point this road trip will be sink or swim for the team.

That's a safe assumption.   A lot has been said about that already - but to me at least .500 still keeps us within range.  We've got ourselves closer.  I don't think it's quite as simple as sink or swim as far as playoffs go.   Too many games left ... only 34 played so far and where we are right now isn't so bad.