[Discussion] JT Miller to Rangers

[Doogie]

As much as I am hoping the Canucks will make the playoffs this year, if they do and I know anything can happen, I don't see them making a run for the cup. JR mentioned there are some holes in the lineup and I completely agree. So let's look ahead and discuss a potential trade of our biggest trade chip JT Miller and next years lineup. 

 

Hoglander - Pettersson - Podkolzin

Pearson - Horvat - Boeser

??? - ??? - Garland

Motte - ??? - Highmore

 

Hughes - ???

OEL - Myers

Rathbone - ???

 

Demko

???

 

This is how I see our lineup next year and as you can see there are glaring holes that need to be addressed. I've left Dickinson out of the lineup because I'm hoping a playoff team this year could see a need for Dickinson and he is traded. Now as for the holes that need to be addressed, Miller is our best trade chip and will command a lofty return helping fill these holes. There are reports in the media as the Rangers being "all over him" so the focus of this will be trading Miller to the Rangers. So, what would your ideal trade look like with the Rangers?

 

I would center the trade around Schneider who could be a long-term partner for Hughes and is our biggest need, a RHD. Our second biggest need is a defensive 3C who can chip in offensively when need be and this is where Chytil or Barron come in. Although both shoot left and we would be better off if either of them shot right this need can be filled with our 4C. The only other issue is some are projecting Chytil to move to the wing where he may be better suited and for this reason I would prefer Barron a big physical presence who plays to his size. Now this is where it gets a little interesting, Schneider and Barron are not enough of a return for Miller so what else could we squeeze out of the Rangers. I would prefer another roster player or prospect over a draft pick to help fill out the rest of our lineup but for the 3LW I see Klimovich getting a shot next year and we could easily find sign a UFA for the 4C position. Here I'm not only thinking next year I'm thinking 2-3 years down the road as we will need to find replacements for Pearson and Myers when their contracts are up. There were two names that stood out to me in a recent article I read and they were Hunter Skinner (RD) and Brennan Othmann (LW). However, I believe the LW position is a lot easier to fill than a RD but then we also have Woo who could jump in and fill that bottom RD position maybe as early as next year. But again, going back to how easily we could fill a LW spot over a RD I would prefer Skinner here. The return of Schneider, Barron, Skinner still seems a little underwhelming especially since we'd retain 50% of Millers salary so just for good measure I'd ask for a 2nd round pick.

 

To Rangers:

Miller at 50% retained

 

To Canucks:

Schneider

Barron

Skinner

2nd round pick 2022

 

Potential lineup next year

 

Hoglander - Pettersson - Podkolzin

Pearson - Horvat - Boeser

Kilmovich - Barron - Garland

Motte - UFA - Highmore

 

Hughes - Schneider

OEL - Myers

Rathbone - Woo/Skinner/Schenn

 

Demko

???

 

Do you agree with the return heading back our way, if not what would be your ideal return in a JT Miller trade to the Rangers? 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Doogie

[204CanucksFan]

I like the trade Stephan Roget proposes on CanucksArmy today after Seravalli said the Rangers are "all over JT Miller"

 

Van Trades:

Miller (50% retained)

 

NYR Trades:

Schneider

Barron

Othmann or 2022 1st round pick 

 

He breaks down his reasoning as well as other potential targets from NYR in his article here:

https://canucksarmy.com/2022/01/19/11-assets-new-york-rangers-offer-vancouver-canucks-trade-jt-miller/

[Coconuts]

I'm down with a Rangers trade, I see them as a great trading partner. But I think for me any trade would have to be built around Schneider and a 1st, I don't think a 2nd is enough. Yes, it'd be a mid range to low 1st, but there are good players to be had in that range and these next couple drafts are supposed to be good from what I've heard. Having a couple 1sts this year or next would go a long way towards bolstering a prospect pool that's looking a bit shallow now that our top prospects have graduated. Having young players on ELC's will be important going forward as Bo, Pettersson, and possibly Brock go on to larger and more lengthy deals. Podz and Hoglander won't be on ELC's forever either. Drafting in the top 32 gives you the best odds of grabbing an ELC player who'll stick sooner than later. 

 

Chytil would be fine, he's young enough that he could still progress. I don't know anything about Barron, but Chytil having the larger cap hit leads me to believe it's more likely he's included in a trade. If we retain 50% on Miller his and Chytil's cap hits are basically a wash over this season and next.

 

I think it's worth emphasizing that Chytil isn't a throw in, he was drafted 21st overall in 2017, so it's not as if he doesn't have pedigree. He turned 22 in September and has good size. As a rookie he had 23 points in 75 games, he followed that up with 23 points in 60 games, and then 22 points in 42 games last season. His point totals haven't jumped much, but his ppg had gone up til this season. He's at 11 points in 35 games this season. Maybe he does more with a larger role here? 

 

So Schneider, 1st, Chytil? I'm not sure if we could squeeze more out of them. I like Schenn, but maybe he'd be someone they'd be interested in too? 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Coconuts

[nux_win]

Nah, I think we should keep our leading scorer and most intense player whether or not we make the playoffs this year.  GCG!

[canucklehead44]

What is the point in trading him when he has a year left on his contract. New York writers are comparing him to players traded who were UFAs - if that is the case why not keep him and trade him at the next deadline if we are not competitive? Get another full year out of him. If the offer was stupid amazing then go for it but the names they are throwing around aren't that exciting. 

[Coconuts]

5 minutes ago, canucklehead44 said:

What is the point in trading him when he has a year left on his contract. New York writers are comparing him to players traded who were UFAs - if that is the case why not keep him and trade him at the next deadline if we are not competitive? Get another full year out of him. If the offer was stupid amazing then go for it but the names they are throwing around aren't that exciting. 

I'm assuming you're talking about Miller.

 

The point of trading him is that he's more valuable to another team with two seasons at 5.25M as opposed to one, that's great value for what Miller brings to a team. He's more valuable as a trade chip right now because any team that acquires him gets two seasons to chase the playoffs and potentially go deep instead of one. 

 

Wait til next year's deadline and you likely get less. 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Coconuts

[canucklehead44]

7 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I'm assuming you're talking about Miller.

 

The point of trading him is that he's more valuable to another team with two seasons at 5.25M as opposed to one, that's great value for what Miller brings to a team. He's more valuable as a trade chip right now because any team that acquires him gets two seasons to chase the playoffs and potentially go deep instead of one. 

 

Wait til next year's deadline and you likely get less. 

I guess my point is the offers being thrown around don't sound like much more than we would get at the deadline next year. 

Its like an 80/20 - if we keep him till next year vs this year's deadline we get 80% of the value remaining of his contract while losing maybe 20% of the trade value. Like I said if the offer is amazing we have to do it but a late first, a young bottom 6 player and a decent prospect isn't an exciting return. I have a hard time seeing us not get a late first and a young bottom 6 player or prospect at the deadline next year

[King Heffy]

25 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I'm down with a Rangers trade, I see them as a great trading partner. But I think for me any trade would have to be built around Schneider and a 1st, I don't think a 2nd is enough. Yes, it'd be a mid range to low 1st, but there are good players to be had in that range and these next couple drafts are supposed to be good from what I've heard. Having a couple 1sts this year or next would go a long way towards bolstering a prospect pool that's looking a bit shallow now that our top prospects have graduated. Having young players on ELC's will be important going forward as Bo, Pettersson, and possibly Brock go on to larger and more lengthy deals. Podz and Hoglander won't be on ELC's forever either. Drafting in the top 32 gives you the best odds of grabbing an ELC player who'll stick sooner than later. 

 

Chytil would be fine, he's young enough that he could still progress. I don't know anything about Barron, but Chytil having the larger cap hit leads me to believe it's more likely he's included in a trade. If we retain 50% on Miller his and Chytil's cap hits are basically a wash over this season and next.

 

I think it's worth emphasizing that Chytil isn't a throw in, he was drafted 21st overall in 2017, so it's not as if he doesn't have pedigree. He turned 22 in September and has good size. As a rookie he had 23 points in 75 games, he followed that up with 23 points in 60 games, and then 22 points in 42 games last season. His point totals haven't jumped much, but his ppg had gone up til this season. He's at 11 points in 35 games this season. Maybe he does more with a larger role here? 

 

So Schneider, 1st, Chytil? I'm not sure if we could squeeze more out of them. I like Schenn, but maybe he'd be someone they'd be interested in too? 

That's a pretty fair return, I'd do it.

[JM_]

why do we need to retain salary on Miller? that hurts us moving forward. 

[Coconuts]

8 minutes ago, canucklehead44 said:

I guess my point is the offers being thrown around don't sound like much more than we would get at the deadline next year. 

Its like an 80/20 - if we keep him till next year vs this year's deadline we get 80% of the value remaining of his contract while losing maybe 20% of the trade value. Like I said if the offer is amazing we have to do it but a late first, a young bottom 6 player and a decent prospect isn't an exciting return. I have a hard time seeing us not get a late first and a young bottom 6 player or prospect at the deadline next year

But that's just it's, there's no guarantee we'd even get 80% of what Miller's worth right now next deadline. Hockey's a fast game, Miller's season could end next game. There's no guarantee he'll be healthy all of next season, or even at the deadline. There's no guarantee he'd produce at the clip he has this season. Trading him is a gamble, but so is holding him. 

 

If Miller's healthy and producing leading up to this year's deadline and Rutherford isn't convinced we're actually in it this season or doesn't envision him as part of the team long-term it's absolutely worth considering a trade.

 

Value matters too, I'd rather have a shot at getting a high end RD prospect and a 1st+ than a 1st and a bottom six player. We desperately need to get younger on D, and we lack high end D prospects and young high end NHL ready D in general. Hughes is the only top 4D we have who's under 25, everyone else is pushing 30 or just past it. 

 

 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Coconuts

[Coconuts]

6 minutes ago, JM_ said:

why do we need to retain salary on Miller? that hurts us moving forward. 

Perhaps, but it's a short term pain for potential long term gain. By the time the deadline comes around you're only eating 50% for like 1.25 seasons. After eating Luongo's recapture for as long as we have it'd be nothing new. 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Coconuts

[King Heffy]

4 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Perhaps, but it's a short term pain for potential long term gain. By the time the deadline comes around you're only eating 50% for like 1.25 seasons. After eating Luongo's recapture for as long as we have it'd be nothing new. 

I'm not a fan at all of long-term retained salary, but it really depends on whether or not JR sees us as being able to contend next year.

[JM_]

7 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Perhaps, but it's a short term pain for potential long term gain. By the time the deadline comes around you're only eating 50% for like 1.25 seasons. After eating Luongo's recapture for as long as we have it'd be nothing new. 

I guess if we're going to do that, it had better be as part of one hell of a package back. Miller at 2.63 mil is the best top 6 deal in the league. Plus a team could turn around, retain again at the draft if they wanted to recoup some assets. 

[Coconuts]

5 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

I'm not a fan at all of long-term retained salary, but it really depends on whether or not JR sees us as being able to contend next year.

Me either, but realistically there's a good chance next year's a stepping stone season anyway. We'll already be eating a season's worth of dead cap thanks to Holtby, Virtanen, and possibly Halak. At that point what's a bit more? Especially if you're getting an actual roster player in Chytil out on the ice? 

 

If we've got roughly 3.9M in dead cap space next season already are we really going to be ready to contend? Halak will hit his bonus this year if he's not traded, so that's what we'd be looking at. That's 3.9M without a Miller trade. But as you said, it depends on what Rutherford sees. 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Coconuts

[Coconuts]

3 minutes ago, JM_ said:

I guess if we're going to do that, it had better be as part of one hell of a package back. Miller at 2.63 mil is the best top 6 deal in the league. Plus a team could turn around, retain again at the draft if they wanted to recoup some assets. 

Absolutely, but the reality is that if we're trading Miller we need to get good value no matter what. If retaining cap is what it takes to make the trade work, and gets you additional value, is that so bad? 

[khay]

If we are retaining half of JT's salary, I want their best RHD prospect, young NHL center, and a first round pick back in return.

 

Something like Schneider + Chytil + 1st. 

 

Chytil will fill in as 3C, the position vacated by Miller.

 

Schneider will improve our defence depth immediately.

 

IMO, that's a trade that can still help us contend for the playoffs while gearing up for the future.

[JM_]

3 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Absolutely, but the reality is that if we're trading Miller we need to get good value no matter what. If retaining cap is what it takes to make the trade work, and gets you additional value, is that so bad? 

ugh... yeah a little. But it depends on the return, if its roster guys on ELCs then we can probably deal with it. 

[Coconuts]

9 minutes ago, JM_ said:

ugh... yeah a little. But it depends on the return, if its roster guys on ELCs then we can probably deal with it. 

For sure, the return is the most important thing without a doubt

[higgyfan]

32 minutes ago, JM_ said:

why do we need to retain salary on Miller? that hurts us moving forward. 

Strome is an UFA at the end of the season, so I think the Rags trade him for picks/prospects; maybe even a player the Canucks would prefer.  With his $4.5M gone (and perhaps the Nucks pick up Chytil's $2.3M) they will be fine in taking on Miller's full cap hit.

 

 

[Maniwaki Canuck]

Sorry but the proposed return for Miller is terrible value.  If you're only getting a D who's been playing in the minors, a 3rd line winger and a pick, even if it's a low 1st, that doesn't begin to equal a top scorer and all around player in the league who plays a premium position and is on a great contract.  There just aren't many players in the league who can do what Miller does.  If you have one, you do everything you can to hang onto them.  If you have to deal them, you make damn sure you're getting back a player with good potential to reach the same level plus additional assets to cover the risk.  The proposed return isn't even close to clearing that bar.