Why I think Miller will be traded and why Canuck fans will be somewhat disappointed with the return.

[JayDangles]

30 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Canucks don't need to trade Miller this season. He's still got a year left, so there isn't any pressure to move him. I think as long as playoffs are possible this season, they won't trade him.

 

Maybe they trade Garland and Boeser, just over $10 million, for picks, prospects and players.  

 

 

Disagree. The fans dont need to trade Miller, the players dont need to trade Miller, but the Canucks DO need to trade Miller. These are the tough moves that our front office havent made in the last 12 years which has kept us mediocre. The Canucks need to trade Miller and improve this team for the long haul

[khay]

2 hours ago, FaninMex said:

Why did you start a thread to say the exact same things a dozen others have said? It is also very hypothetical 

To give me and others more threads to repeat ourselves: "TRADE MILLERZZZ!!!"

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by khay

[nameci]

Fan in Mexico and VegasCanuck:  I am stuck in bed with terminal pancreatic cancer so my entertainment options are few.  I thought I had something to add to the forum so Iposted.  You both chose to take issue with my post which is certainly your right.  I was posting my informed opinion which you neither needed to read or respond to.  I don’t think your posts added anything to the conversation.  Perhaps you, like me, have too much time on your hands.  I am also a fan in Mexico.

[JM_]

17 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

There will be a market for a player like Miller, if its not NYR then trade him elsewhere. We cannot afford to let him walk for nothing, still major holes in this lineup. 

but sometimes you can let players go. For one thing, you get the cap space when they leave, which isn't nothing.

 

Low selling Miller to help another team does very little to help us. 

 

But if we keep him, who knows what changes Rutherford can pull off? maybe Miller decides to stay if he likes his chances and signs an extension. Panic low selling him is a bad idea. 

Edited February 1, 2022 by JM_

[eeeeergh]

1 hour ago, nameci said:

I think JR knows something for certain that most Canuck fans can only speculate on.  I don’t think that Vancouver will be JT Miller’s first choice when it comes time to sign his next contract.  My opinion is that he will probably prefer to sign with an American team.  So what do we do with JT in the meantime.  A number of Canuck fans feel that we are close to being a playoff team this year, so we will need all of the intangibles that JT brings to the team.  Next year, let’s assume that we will again be in the playoff hunt and our chances would be much improved with JT on the team, so we keep him.  When all is said and done, JT walks and doesn’t resign.  Now we are in the same position as we were when Tanev, Markstrom, Stetcher and Toffoli left for cap reasons and WE GOT NOTHING IN RETURN WHEN THEY LEFT.  So I think JR will choose to sell high and get the max return for JT while he is still in his prime and we still have some leverage.

i really doubt that Schneider, Carlo or Boldy are coming our way.  I get the sense that other teams are unwilling to part with prime young assets for JT’s services.  While Canuck fans are thinking Schneider, Chytl and a first is a fair return, I think the Rangers will be unwilling to part with Schneider or even Lundquist in a trade.
I think we will harvest a good supply of picks and prospects which will fill two of JR’s requirements, create cap space and restock our prospect pool.  This definitely means that no big contracts will be coming back in trade.

One fan’s opinion.

I tend to disagree, for a few reasons:
1. JT Miller is the most impactful player on the trade block right now, that can make a difference for a team wanting to win the cup
2. He's on a very discounted contract, not just for this year but for next year, making him more valuable than a rental player of his caliber
3. Teams acquiring for a playoff run have to pay an EXTREMELY steep premium, because they're bidding against other contenders for those impact players (Tampa had to pay a 1st round pick for Barclay Goodrow in 2020, and he's nowhere near JT Miller caliber). 

If Vancouver wants to get an even bigger haul back, they can retain some salary too. 

Vancouver paid a 1st round pick, 3rd round pick, and a prospect for JT Miller, and not at the deadline. His value has increased significantly since then based on his performance, and being a deadline trade adds even more value. 

Realistically fair market value for JT Miller is 3 1st round pick caliber assets and a roster player. 

[erkayloomeh]

1 hour ago, nameci said:

I think JR knows something for certain that most Canuck fans can only speculate on.  I don’t think that Vancouver will be JT Miller’s first choice when it comes time to sign his next contract.  My opinion is that he will probably prefer to sign with an American team.  So what do we do with JT in the meantime.  A number of Canuck fans feel that we are close to being a playoff team this year, so we will need all of the intangibles that JT brings to the team.  Next year, let’s assume that we will again be in the playoff hunt and our chances would be much improved with JT on the team, so we keep him.  When all is said and done, JT walks and doesn’t resign.  Now we are in the same position as we were when Tanev, Markstrom, Stetcher and Toffoli left for cap reasons and WE GOT NOTHING IN RETURN WHEN THEY LEFT.  So I think JR will choose to sell high and get the max return for JT while he is still in his prime and we still have some leverage.

i really doubt that Schneider, Carlo or Boldy are coming our way.  I get the sense that other teams are unwilling to part with prime young assets for JT’s services.  While Canuck fans are thinking Schneider, Chytl and a first is a fair return, I think the Rangers will be unwilling to part with Schneider or even Lundquist in a trade.
I think we will harvest a good supply of picks and prospects which will fill two of JR’s requirements, create cap space and restock our prospect pool.  This definitely means that no big contracts will be coming back in trade.

One fan’s opinion.

If I'm gm I'm already having discussions with miller's camp even tho I know we can't extend him yet. If miller really wants to be here they will likely discuss with our gm and can have some verbal arrangement. If his agent shuts him down or they are asking for an unfavorable contract you decide to move on.

Trading any player successfully requires alot of skill imo.   You need to be able to upsell all the attributes of that player believably. You need to subtly play the other gms that are interested against each other.  Especially if you are lucky enough to have two teams after Miller who are going to be playoff competitors.  Not only do teams want Miller,  but they don't want there competitors to have him. You need to properly assess the skill coming back.  You need to properly assess your own teams needs. 

Where are we at going forward? Do we want players in return for miller that are a risk (picks)or are going to take 3 or 4 years to develop?   The other option is if you get premier young players or picks is to later flip them for quality developed players from a team that needs cap.

I want Miller to stay but I'm leaning towards a trade prediction as well. 

 

[Nucker 67]

Listening to this guy from Daily Faceoff on Halford and Brough, and he thinks the Rangers may not want to part with Schneider or Lundqvist from their D for Miller, but suggested the Canucks might want to consider Zac Jones, a young, small LD. 

 

Who?  WTF?  Why would they settle for him?  Screw that

 

to NYR - Miller and Schenn

to VAN - Kakko, Schneider, 1st

 

If the Rangers want Miller and a Cup, it's going to cost them 

[spook007]

1 hour ago, ba;;isticsports said:

We gave up a high 1st and 3rd pick and a goalie and he is a more valuable player now on a contract, so i expect more than we paid in return than lower round picks of the same draft  rounds  minimum

He is older now, but agree... if he goes, it should bring a better return.

[spook007]

1 hour ago, JayDangles said:

Yes, but other teams will counter and say he only has 1.5 years left on his contract and will be due for a big raise. Arguing thats a strike against.

Let them argue all they want to... If we go to a team and take hold back salary on a player like Miller, even 1.5 years could mean a cup...

If they don't want to give anything keep him. Even if he goes on a free... should never accept pittance for good players...

[spook007]

50 minutes ago, nameci said:

Fan in Mexico and VegasCanuck:  I am stuck in bed with terminal pancreatic cancer so my entertainment options are few.  I thought I had something to add to the forum so Iposted.  You both chose to take issue with my post which is certainly your right.  I was posting my informed opinion which you neither needed to read or respond to.  I don’t think your posts added anything to the conversation.  Perhaps you, like me, have too much time on your hands.  I am also a fan in Mexico.

Thoughts and prayers are with you in Mexico.

[nameci]

Spook007,  Thank you.  I appreciate your good wishes.  Life won’t be as long as I anticipated, but it has been a great ride nonetheless.

[DefCon1]

2 hours ago, JayDangles said:

Yes, but other teams will counter and say he only has 1.5 years left on his contract and will be due for a big raise. Arguing thats a strike against.

I dont think that lowers his trade value that much, because it is still 1.5 years out with chance of re-signing him. Would you think McDavid would have a much lower trade value if he had only 1.5 years left? I dont think so

[DefCon1]

1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

Canucks don't need to trade Miller this season. He's still got a year left, so there isn't any pressure to move him. I think as long as playoffs are possible this season, they won't trade him.

 

Maybe they trade Garland and Boeser, just over $10 million, for picks, prospects and players.  

 

 

Garland is not going to be traded for picks and prospects. If he is traded, he will be traded for players like Carlo as an example. Garland is locked in a cheap contract for a long time and he is young with lots of potential. He needs to have a big return if traded, otherwise we keep him, simple as that. I think clearing 5 million can be done easily by getting rid of pearson and Hamonic instead of getting rid of a young player like Garland.

[Alflives]

Miller will be traded because it's highly unlikely he will re-sign with us.  So it's best to use him to get much needed young assets and picks. 

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Miller will be traded because it's highly unlikely he will re-sign with us.  So it's best to use him to get much needed young assets and picks. 

But what if he would consider an extension?

[Maniwaki Canuck]

It's a given that Miller may not want to re-sign, otherwise he would have said he's interested (like Toffoli did) and there wouldn't be this amount of smoke around him right now. 

As for the return, yes, it could be disappointing.  You hardly ever win trading away a franchise player.  But there will be a market for him, and that will ensure that we get at least 3 good pieces.  If the Rangers don't want to give up Schneider, they better come with something else that's enticing.  Because someone else will.

Unlike the majority here, I don't think an RD has to be part of the package.  We can more than get by for the next couple of years with Myers, Hamonic, Poolman, Schenn, Burroughs, Juulsen, Keeper and Woo.  A "succession plan" for Myers is a luxury with that kind of depth.  What we really need is scoring.  Not a better transition or possession game, but actual scoring.  So I'm hoping for some good young forward prospects.

[alt kilgore]

Its all a gamble. 

That gamble is based on projections by people who I assume know more than I do.

 

I'd at least wait until it got closer to the TDL.  And even if we were way out of playoff contention by then, it would still be a gamble to trade him away, Gambling that the return will pay off. Gambling that if that return is very young, that Petey, Bo, Boeser, will not ask for a trade too.

 

But IMO JR should be only looking to trade Miller, if he takes an offer he can't refuse,....either wakes up to a horse head in his bed, or the return is so good he HAS to take it. Where's Mike Millbury when you need him? 

 

JR is in the drivers seat this season and can ask for a lot.  So lets see what we can steal. But if not I agree with some here that say we should start asking already this Summer, and feel out if he is open to staying a Canuck for a reasonable contract number.  He may say he is, but then re-visit that  during the season and especially before the TDL next season. It may depend on where we are in the standings, and/or how he sees the team building going. 

 

Will the trade price be less for him next season because of the contract expiring?  Yes.  But by how much? I really think JR would still find a desperate GM, with a crazy owner nagging him, who will pay a ransom for even a JT rental.  I certainly have more faith in the negotiating skill of JR > JB.  A team would pay out plenty still next season if there was an understanding that he'd want to re-sign with his new team.  (I guess the ultimate result would be he joins another team as a rental and then flips back to Van for a sustainable contract in the Summer).

 

Bottom line......I don't have a hard preference.

 

I'd mostly prefer he find a way to keep Miller, but.....if he got a king's ransom for him, I wouldn't be against it.  My only caveat is that if its not a ransom coming back, then wait. He's got time. The difference between what we'd get for him this TDL compared to next TDL is less for sure, but not as significant as some make out. And you have to weigh that "loss" against what you may ultimately gain from Miller staying here.

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

Listening to this guy from Daily Faceoff on Halford and Brough, and he thinks the Rangers may not want to part with Schneider or Lundqvist from their D for Miller, but suggested the Canucks might want to consider Zac Jones, a young, small LD. 

 

Who?  WTF?  Why would they settle for him?  Screw that

 

to NYR - Miller and Schenn

to VAN - Kakko, Schneider, 1st

 

If the Rangers want Miller and a Cup, it's going to cost them 

 

Yeah, this is all part of the trade negotiation dance. Of course the Rangers don't WANT to trade Schneider, but either you pay up, or one of your competitors likely will.

[RU SERIOUS]

On the flip side, I wouldn't be surprised to see JR make Miller our Captain and trade BO - who got the job by default because there was absolutely no one else to give the job to when the Sedins retied.   ......and yes Bo is a great player and I love him but Miller is TRUE captain material!   

[Dekey Pete]

3 hours ago, JayDangles said:

Yes, but other teams will counter and say he only has 1.5 years left on his contract and will be due for a big raise. Arguing thats a strike against.

That 1.5 years left is potentially 2 playoff runs.  That's plenty of time for a team that is ready to win a cup.