HKSR Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 So we are all speculating on JT Miller's price should he be extended with the Canucks. We've all speculated, and I've seen numbers everywhere from $7M upto $9M AAV. So what is his actual $ value? JT Miller is currently the 38th highest scoring forward in the league (based on points per game). The 38th highest cap hit in the entire NHL among forwards is $7.25M. So perhaps those $8M to $9M AAV numbers being thrown around might be a bit on the high side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Points, of course, are not the only aspects that have value. He plays wing, center, power play, and some penalty killing. Also a good face off winner. Need to factor in when those other contracts were signed, and if points are all those players bring, to the ice sheet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 (edited) Unfortunately that's a massively overly simplified way of gauging player cap hits. How many of those deals are cheaper ELC or bridge deals? How many are older contracts signed 4+ years ago? All of those things bring down your average there. If you look at recently signed comparables, he'll be looking at between $8-$9.5m depending on things like trade clauses, term, contender discount, lower/no tax state discount etc. Edited February 1, 2022 by aGENT 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'm thinking he may accept $7-$7.5 but he'll want term - 5 years at the least Miller will be 30 when his current contract expires. Do they really want to be paying him $7.5 at 33 when he's declined, and he still has 2 years left? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, aGENT said: Unfortunately that's a massively overly simplified way of gauging player cap hits. How many of those deals are cheaper ELC or bridge deals? How many are older contracts signed 4+ years ago? All of those things bring down your average there. If you look at recently signed comparables, he'll be looking at between $8-$9.5m depending on things like trade clauses, term, contender discount, lower/no tax discount etc. I don't disagree with you, but what doesn't change is the fact the 38th highest paid forward in the entire league only makes $7.25M. I guess if we think he's a top 25 forward in the entire league, then he'd be right around $8.25M If top 20, then $9M. If top 15, then $9.5M. Where does he fit? I'd say more in the top 25-30 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, NUCKER67 said: I'm thinking he may accept $7-$7.5 but he'll want term - 5 years at the least Miller will be 30 when his current contract expires. Do they really want to be paying him $7.5 at 33 when he's declined, and he still has 2 years left? We're not getting him for $7.5. we're not a contender, we're not in a low tax location. Even with trade clauses and a 6-8 year term, we'd probably need to be in the $8.5-$9m territory. Even a no/low tax team that's contending is likely going to be $8m+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Blake Wheeler signed a 5 year deal a couple years ago after back-to-back 91 point campaigns. It came out to $8.25M AAV. Does JT Miller command more than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, aGENT said: We're not getting him for $7.5. we're not a contender, we're not in a low tax location. Even with trade clauses and a 6-8 year term, we'd probably need to be in the $8.5-$9m territory. Even a no/low tax team that's contending is likely going to be $8m+. So based on that, you'd reckon he's ranked in the top 15 to 20 range in the entire NHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, HKSR said: I don't disagree with you, but what doesn't change is the fact the 38th highest paid forward in the entire league only makes $7.25M. Not if you're actually trying to make an honest assessment of value/cap hit of a current, UFA aged player. Just now, HKSR said: I guess if we think he's a top 25 forward in the entire league, then he'd be right around $8.25M If top 20, then $9M. If top 15, then $9.5M. Where does he fit? I'd say more in the top 25-30 range. IIRC, he's been a top 15 player in the league the last couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, aGENT said: Not if you're actually trying to make an honest assessment of value/cap hit of a current, UFA aged player. IIRC, he's been a top 15 player in the league the last couple years. Based on points per game, he's 28th over the past few years (since 2019-20). If based on points alone (not per game basis), he's 16th overall. EDIT: Looking at forwards only. He drops a bit if you include defencemen. Sorry, he's 28th in PPG, forgot to exclude those guys that played like 1 game lol Edited February 1, 2022 by HKSR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, HKSR said: Based on points per game, he's 38th over the past few years (since 2019-20). If based on points alone (not per game basis), he's 16th overall. Also over simplified. There's more to hockey than simple PPG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, aGENT said: Also over simplified. There's more to hockey than simple PPG. Again, I don't disagree. Just wondering if we think Miller is a top 15 to 20 forward in the entire NHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khay Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, aGENT said: Unfortunately that's a massively overly simplified way of gauging player cap hits. How many of those deals are cheaper ELC or bridge deals? How many are older contracts signed 4+ years ago? All of those things bring down your average there. If you look at recently signed comparables, he'll be looking at between $8-$9.5m depending on things like trade clauses, term, contender discount, lower/no tax state discount etc. This. An example of lower tax state benefit is Stamkos. He gets like 8.5 mil. It turned out that earning 8.5 mil in Tampa was like getting 11 mil in Toronto. 1. Miller is UFA. 2. Vancouver is not a contender. 3. Vancouver is not a tax favorable city to play in. 4. Miller has shown no indication of wanting to give discount to stay here. All of this equates to a fair deal being upwards of 8 mil. Miller's side wanting 8+ mil is well justified even using internal comparisons. 1. He is better than Petey. Twice the point production while handling more minutes. 2. Petey gets 7.35 mil as an RFA. 3. Miller is a UFA and UFA salary is usually more inflated than RFAs. Miller's demand starts at 9-9.5 mil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, HKSR said: Again, I don't disagree. Just wondering if we think Miller is a top 15 to 20 forward in the entire NHL. A partial list of better players Crosby McDavid Drisiatl McKinnon Marchand Mathews Eichel-maybe, maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, khay said: This. An example of lower tax state benefit is Stamkos. He gets like 8.5 mil. It turned out that earning 8.5 mil in Tampa was like getting 11 mil in Toronto. 1. Miller is UFA. 2. Vancouver is not a contender. 3. Vancouver is not a tax favorable city to play in. 4. Miller has shown no indication of wanting to give discount to stay here. All of this equates to a fair deal being upwards of 8 mil. Miller's side wanting 8+ mil is well justified even using internal comparisons. 1. He is better than Petey. Twice the point production while handling more minutes. 2. Petey gets 7.35 mil as an RFA. 3. Miller is a UFA and UFA salary is usually more inflated than RFAs. Miller's demand starts at 9-9.5 mil. So where does he slot in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khay Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, HKSR said: Again, I don't disagree. Just wondering if we think Miller is a top 15 to 20 forward in the entire NHL. My honest opinion: no. He is not even a top 2 forward on most contending teams. Florida: Huberdeau, Barkov. Tampa: Kucherov, Point, and Stamkos. Carolina: Aho. Maybe he is #2 here? NYR: Zibanejad, Panarin. Is he better than Kreider? I think they are good in their own ways. Boston: Pasta, Marchand, Bergeron. Toronto: Marner, Matthews, Tavares. Pittsburgh: Malkin, Crosby. Washington: Ovechkin. Backstrom when healthy is probably better and Kuznetsov is arguable. I'm not even going to do the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junkyard Dog Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, HKSR said: Based on points per game, he's 38th over the past few years (since 2019-20). If based on points alone (not per game basis), he's 16th overall. Then you consider the fact he can win faceoffs, PK, PP, plays physical, produces in the playoffs, carries his line and the team at times. Then I look guys like Seguin/Backstrom making 9M+ and I see Miller playing better than those two, even the year going into their 9M+ contracts. Then I see guys like Johanssen, Duchene making 8M and Miller's a lot better than both those players. Miller can easily get 8.5M-9.5M on the open market even with the flat cap. We've seen Jones and Hamilton get 9+ and I see Miller at the same level of value and importance, if not a bit more, than those guys. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bure_Pavel Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Most likely will be in the 8 years X 8 million range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khay Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, HKSR said: So where does he slot in here? I think his camp uses Mark Stone and his 9.5 mil as a comparable. Point production wise, Stone is around PPG and plays all situations. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, khay said: My honest opinion: no. He is not even a top 2 forward on most contending teams. Florida: Huberdeau, Barkov. Tampa: Kucherov, Point, and Stamkos. Carolina: Aho. Maybe he is #2 here? NYR: Zibanejad, Panarin. Is he better than Kreider? I think they are good in their own ways. Boston: Pasta, Marchand, Bergeron. Toronto: Marner, Matthews, Tavares. Pittsburgh: Malkin, Crosby. Washington: Ovechkin. Backstrom when healthy is probably better and Kuznetsov is arguable. I'm not even going to do the West. Right... so maybe... just maybe, we might be overstating his cost? I'd be honestly happy to lock him up for say 5 years at $8M AAV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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