JT Miller's Next Contract - Is it gonna be that high?

[aGENT]

12 minutes ago, HKSR said:

You realize the sedins and luongo were 31 and 32 in 2011 right?  Meanwhile Kesler was 26 and Edler was 24.  Guess we should have dumped the twins and Luongo in 2008 or 2009.

I'm perfectly fine having a 31 year old Horvat and Demko in 5 years. Petey and Hughes will be 28/27 and at their peak and will be driving the bus.

 

You'll also note the Sedins being our key players, dropped off significantly within a couple years of that run, shutting the window. Precisely why we can't afford to hitch some of our biggest cap dollars to Miller, who will be 34/35 .

 

Edited February 2, 2022 by aGENT

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

I'm perfectly fine having a 31 year old Horvat and Demko in 5 years. Petey and Hughes will be 28/27 and at their peak and will be driving the bus.

 

You'll also note the Sedins being our key players, dropped off significantly within a couple years of that run, shutting the window. Precisely why we can't afford to hitch some of our biggest cap dollars to Miller, who will be 34/35 .

 

So had we followed your game plan in 2008 or 2009 and dumped the sedins, we would have been better off... got it.

[aGENT]

8 minutes ago, HKSR said:

So had we followed your game plan in 2008 or 2009 and dumped the sedins, we would have been better off... got it.

No, the situations aren't really parallels. They were obviously the key core pieces of that team but were almost a decade older than Petey and Hughes are now. Petey and Hughes aren't even in their primes for a couple more years. Hence when our contention window opens. Completely different situations.

 

But with hindsight, as hard as it would have been, it's pretty clear we could have kept our window open longer if we had moved them in 12-13 or 13-14 and not extended them. BECAUSE YOU DON'T ALLOCATE LARGE AMOUNTS OF CAP AND TERM TO DECLINING MID 30's PLAYERS WHILE TRYING TO COMPETE.

 

Miller will be a declining, mid 30s player when we're trying to complete.

[Gawdzukes]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

The closest we've gotten to a cup was 2011.  Literally the best canucks team statistically we have ever seen... what did the management group do to get there?  

So you basically think we should just go for it every single year then until we win it? That didn't work so well the last 10 years. In 2011 that was a strong team with great veteran players on it. Us not so much.

 

The thing is when was the last time we made a move from strength and increased the core value of our team? The Sedin's, Burrows, Hansen, Ehrhoff, Higgins, Edler, Tanev, Toffoli, Markstrom. We got nothing or next to nothing for all of these guys because we were 'going for it'. 

 

Usually I'm not one to kick the can down the road if there's a chance but just 3 months ago this team was in utter ruins. We fired the coaches, all the management and made a commitment to the future. I ripped off the emotional band-aid at the start of the season and re-upped that when new people came in. If there was ever a time to not go for it and make a non emotional move for the future it's now. Good teams do this.

 

If not now, when (in 10 more years when Miller's contract finally runs out)?

[aGENT]

6 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

So you basically think we should just go for it every single year then until we win it? That didn't work so well the last 10 years. In 2011 that was a strong team with great veteran players on it. Us not so much.

 

The thing is when was the last time we made a move from strength and increased the core value of our team? The Sedin's, Burrows, Hansen, Ehrhoff, Higgins, Edler, Tanev, Toffoli, Markstrom. We got nothing or next to nothing for all of these guys because we were 'going for it'. 

 

Usually I'm not one to kick the can down the road if there's a chance but just 3 months ago this team was in utter ruins. We fired the coaches, all the management and made a commitment to the future. I ripped off the emotional band-aid at the start of the season and re-upped that when new people came in. If there was ever a time to not go for it and make a non emotional move for the future it's now. Good teams do this.

 

If not now, when (in 10 more years when Miller's contract finally runs out)?

The parallel to that 2011 team would be that we keep poorly building for the next 8 or so years, and finally after getting Miller's anchor off the books, we get a couple good runs with Hughes and Petey at 30-32 years old and then re-up them as they're also declining. 

[HKSR]

11 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

So you basically think we should just go for it every single year then until we win it? That didn't work so well the last 10 years. In 2011 that was a strong team with great veteran players on it. Us not so much.

 

The thing is when was the last time we made a move from strength and increased the core value of our team? The Sedin's, Burrows, Hansen, Ehrhoff, Higgins, Edler, Tanev, Toffoli, Markstrom. We got nothing or next to nothing for all of these guys because we were 'going for it'. 

 

Usually I'm not one to kick the can down the road if there's a chance but just 3 months ago this team was in utter ruins. We fired the coaches, all the management and made a commitment to the future. I ripped off the emotional band-aid at the start of the season and re-upped that when new people came in. If there was ever a time to not go for it and make a non emotional move for the future it's now. Good teams do this.

 

If not now, when (in 10 more years when Miller's contract finally runs out)?

 

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

The parallel to that 2011 team would be that we keep poorly building for the next 8 or so years, and finally after getting Miller's anchor off the books, we get a couple good runs with Hughes and Petey at 30-32 years old and then re-up them as they're also declining. 

Carry on... this is why this franchise is without a cup for 52 years.  I'll see you guys in 4 to 5 years when this core has reached their prime and are still hovering in mediocrity because all you've done is replaced the current top guys like Miller with the next top guy ... always perpetually chasing the next core.  You better hope Petey and Boeser find their games cuz otherwise you've given up on a team playing .700 hockey.

[aGENT]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

 

Carry on... this is why this franchise is without a cup for 52 years.  I'll see you guys in 4 to 5 years when this core has reached their prime and are still hovering in mediocrity because all you've done is replaced the current top guys like Miller with the next top guy ... always perpetually chasing the next core.  You better hope Petey and Boeser find their games cuz otherwise you've given up on a team playing .700 hockey.

We're not chasing a core. The core is there and identified. Now you build to maximize it's window (which is roughly 2-7 years from now). It's not rocket dentistry.

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

We're not chasing a core. The core is there and identified. Now you build to maximize it's window (which is roughly 2-7 years from now). It's not rocket dentistry.

Look at the LA Kings... they won their first cup when Doughty was 22 and Kopitar 24. Why? Because the other guys were in their prime and their young guns (ie. Doughty and Kopitar) were able to match their play already.  4 years later when these core guys hit their so called prime and cost a fortune, LA was on their way downhill and booted in the 1st round cuz they were not able to bring in young guns of their caliber to complement them.

 

I can guarantee you that the Canucks will not be as much of a powerhouse as you think in 4 or 5 years when Petey and Hughes hit their prime.

[Gawdzukes]

4 minutes ago, HKSR said:

 

Carry on... this is why this franchise is without a cup for 52 years.  I'll see you guys in 4 to 5 years when this core has reached their prime and are still hovering in mediocrity because all you've done is replaced the current top guys like Miller with the next top guy ... always perpetually chasing the next core.  You better hope Petey and Boeser find their games cuz otherwise you've given up on a team playing .700 hockey.

Sorry I don't think you see the big picture at all. You are thinking this is a .700 hockey team next year after 20 games. That's a huge gamble I wouldn't be willing to take. It's not like we're the class of the league rolling over everyone. You also don't seem to be taking into account that we're going to lose a lot of (key) players due to cap restraints, including Miller when he re-signs somewhere else anyway. 

 

[wai_lai416]

lol you have let see

 

point at 9.5

zibanejid at 8.5 

backstrom at 9.2

seguin at 9.85

 

granted seguin was signed like 3 years ago.. 

 

miller point production wise in the regular season the last 2-3 season is on par if not better than some of those players listed above.. some have more upside granted like Point whos prolly a selke candidate.. we are just looking at comparables based on position and current production from the past few years..

 

they ain't going to care whether he's a top 15-20 25 30 player.. he's going to be looking at comparables to player in same position that were just signed recently.. 

 

he knows he's getting his 8.5+ in the open market so it's really up to the management to decide whether they want to go all in with miller or not with the current rendition of the team.. 

 

personal opinion is trade him this year for max return.. dont' really see the point of keeping him next year just to trade him at the TDL for a significantly less return.. if they decide to keep him and re-sign.. don't really see any scenario where this team will be good enough.. status quo? prolly not good enough.. trading boeser horvat or pettersson.. don't see how the return on those players will be good enough to improve the team right away to the point where they can compete for the cup during miller's prime year as they'll need to replace those players on top of still fixing the bottom 6 and defense.

[N4ZZY]

17 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

lol you have let see

 

point at 9.5

zibanejid at 8.5 

backstrom at 9.2

seguin at 9.85

 

granted seguin was signed like 3 years ago.. 

 

miller point production wise in the regular season the last 2-3 season is on par if not better than some of those players listed above.. some have more upside granted like Point whos prolly a selke candidate.. we are just looking at comparables based on position and current production from the past few years..

 

they ain't going to care whether he's a top 15-20 25 30 player.. he's going to be looking at comparables to player in same position that were just signed recently.. 

 

he knows he's getting his 8.5+ in the open market so it's really up to the management to decide whether they want to go all in with miller or not with the current rendition of the team.. 

 

personal opinion is trade him this year for max return.. dont' really see the point of keeping him next year just to trade him at the TDL for a significantly less return.. if they decide to keep him and re-sign.. don't really see any scenario where this team will be good enough.. status quo? prolly not good enough.. trading boeser horvat or pettersson.. don't see how the return on those players will be good enough to improve the team right away to the point where they can compete for the cup during miller's prime year as they'll need to replace those players on top of still fixing the bottom 6 and defense.

And perhaps Miller knows this to one degree or another. This team this year at least, is not a contender. Could the conversation be different if they didn’t have such a poor start? Of course, yet. But the reality is that the make up of this team isn’t nearly good enough to contend with the likes of Vegas, Tampa Bay, Florida, Carolina, Calgarys of the league. They’re just not there. Would Miller want to be a part of a semi-rebuild? Or does he want to contend and go to a contender right away? 

 

He’s a very valuable asset. I think where the team is at in its cycle, because of the inept management of Benning, this team isn’t even a playoff contender, let alone a Cup contender. And the Cup is what JT’s probably after. Well, we are nowhere near that. So, the smart decision has to be to move him for assets on defense and prospects that will help us move us there. 

 

[wai_lai416]

5 minutes ago, N4ZZY said:

And perhaps Miller knows this to one degree or another. This team this year at least, is not a contender. Could the conversation be different if they didn’t have such a poor start? Of course, yet. But the reality is that the make up of this team isn’t nearly good enough to contend with the likes of Vegas, Tampa Bay, Florida, Carolina, Calgarys of the league. They’re just not there. Would Miller want to be a part of a semi-rebuild? Or does he want to contend and go to a contender right away? 

 

He’s a very valuable asset. I think where the team is at in its cycle, because of the inept management of Benning, this team isn’t even a playoff contender, let alone a Cup contender. And the Cup is what JT’s probably after. Well, we are nowhere near that. So, the smart decision has to be to move him for assets on defense and prospects that will help us move us there. 

 

Moving Miller gives us a more flexible option than keeping Miller. If we move Miller this year there will be significant piece coming back that will set the team up for the future and bank on EP getting back to form.. and if he doesn't can strip it down even more for a bigger rebuild/retool and we still have the asset from the Miller trade.. if he does great the prospect which should be significant should be able to make an impact within the next couple season and we ready to compete.

 

If we keep Miller and say the plan backfires and we are not good enough..  then what? Full rebuild? So couple season of potentially being a fringe playoff team and then a full rebuild if it doesn't work? So another 4-5 years worth of rebuilding on top of the 3-4 years trying but not good enough? 

 

Keeping Miller is pushing ur chips all in with no alternate option and if it doesn't work it's gonna blow up spectacularly and we might not even reach cup contender status till closer to the end of the decade lol almost 20 years since the last cup contending team we had. Everything currently points to we aint a cup contender in the next 3-4 years

[N4ZZY]

16 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

Moving Miller gives us a more flexible option than keeping Miller. If we move Miller this year there will be significant piece coming back that will set the team up for the future and bank on EP getting back to form.. and if he doesn't can strip it down even more for a bigger rebuild/retool and we still have the asset from the Miller trade.. if he does great the prospect which should be significant should be able to make an impact within the next couple season and we ready to compete.

 

If we keep Miller and say the plan backfires and we are not good enough..  then what? Full rebuild? So couple season of potentially being a fringe playoff team and then a full rebuild if it doesn't work? So another 4-5 years worth of rebuilding on top of the 3-4 years trying but not good enough? 

 

Keeping Miller is pushing ur chips all in with no alternate option and if it doesn't work it's gonna blow up spectacularly and we might not even reach cup contender status till closer to the end of the decade lol almost 20 years since the last cup contending team we had. Everything currently points to we aint a cup contender in the next 3-4 years

I think you’re probably right in saying that moving Miller is probably the right decision. For me, Petey is the foundation of this team, assuming he gets back to his elite ways next season. if he doesn’t, then a trade is possible, but then you’d be selling low on Pettersson. I don’t think that’s a good deal. 

 

I think trade Miller, and bank on EP getting back to form, like you’ve said. If he doesn’t, then need to trade a few more players for younger NHL ready players, picks and more promising prospects. It would essentially be a rebuild at that point in time wouldn’t it? 

 

I agree that we aren’t a Cup contender. We’re barely a playoff contender. So that says that we ought to be sellers. Really hard to gauge what management is thinking. They’ve been pretty tight lip about what information comes out and what doesn’t. They already seem smarter in that they tend to attempt to control the narrative surrounding their players. 

 

Yea, I’m tired of our team being a fringe team. 8 years has gone by. Feels like that’s been a waste of almost a decade. The smart play here, at least in my opinion, is to trade Miller and get as large and quality of a package in return for him. If we can get a promising RHD for Miller in a package. How can you not do that? It’s been one of this franchise’s Achilles heels over the lifetime of this organization. JR and PA need to do the right thing for the organization. Trade Miller. End of story. 

 

 

[NewbieCanuckFan]

On 2/1/2022 at 8:43 PM, aGENT said:

I'm perfectly fine having a 31 year old Horvat and Demko in 5 years. Petey and Hughes will be 28/27 and at their peak and will be driving the bus.

 

You'll also note the Sedins being our key players, dropped off significantly within a couple years of that run, shutting the window. Precisely why we can't afford to hitch some of our biggest cap dollars to Miller, who will be 34/35 .

 

Both Sedins were in the top ten in points in the 2014/15 season (32 years old).  Then, their offense fell off a cliff.

[aGENT]

58 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Both Sedins were in the top ten in points in the 2014/15 season (32 years old).  Then, their offense fell off a cliff.

Exactly. Almost like +/- 32 and up is the age that almost every players production and ability to play up to large contracts declines...

[Nuxfanabroad]

Let's predict 8 mill-ish for Millsy

[Nuxfanabroad]

Scanning the first page of this early 2022-bump, gotta' feel good about Miller's deal.

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Scanning the first page of this early 2022-bump, gotta' feel good about Miller's deal.

And he did finish with 99 points...and is now considered a pretty darn good center. 

[iceman64]

5 hours ago, IBatch said:

And he did finish with 99 points...and is now considered a pretty darn good center. 

And a leader, not only scores a lot but scores well timed clutch goals that won us hockey games. 

 Talking about this without considered what players will cost ANYWHERE near his play even well after thirty years old and seasons 50-60-70 pts, and that should be after a minimum of 5 years and the price up to then will be a whole lot more by far than 8mil so in the long run we're breaking even if he declines like everyone expects but he won't lose that much step with that kind of skill and drive, but that's just my opinion, but regardless by the time his contract is over it will have balanced itself out. It was a good signing at that price, well done JR and AL!!

 Now to really piss people off (because not like I give a f___ ) 

Sweet signing in the first place by Jimbo, sure he was a new GM and made mistakes but if some think that's all he ever did, they could stand to go see a professional

 The good things he did were really good!  Not to mention Demko signed for peanuts but set up for a massive uptick and does he ever deserve it! 

 I disagree with JR saying it's JT being the best player on the team, i'd argue Demko, then Miller... Best scorer yes but Demko has all the drive Miller has BUT he never loses his cool.. just does his job and then some pretty much every night. 

 We can take any forward or d of the team and still win games but take away Demko.. whoa... That might have changed since Martin walked in but that still a question mark over the long haul. Sample size was pretty insane I admit, but if these two keep it going we could end up with one of the league's top Tandems. 

Edited September 15, 2022 by iceman64

[IBatch]

This thread didn't age well lol...Miller ends up on four different lines, not one played 200 minutes together, the worst line by far was the lotto line,  and scored at a 120 point pace the second half.   

 

For sure he's at least the same value as Zibenajad, which right now, better actually...and considered a top 12ish center.   Which is better then a top 12ish winger by a fair bit.    That puts him in the top 20ish valuable forward territory.   He's been paid like a top 40 player.   Same area as Skinner, Duchene, Brady T,  J Hughes etc.    Next season his contact starts.  And by then he's going to be paid like a top 45ish forward.   Guys like Thompson lol ... and well he's pretty close to guys like EP as well.   He's outperforming RFAs left right and centre at 5.25...which of course we have him at for one more season.   IF you add this year at 5.25 plus 7 at 8 .... he's even better value, and by the time his next contract starts likely will be paid like a top 50 or so player, averages out to 7.65 for eight years including this one.   

 

Within 3 years, we probably have at least a dozen or so guys making over ten (forwards only) and he gets pushed down the list even further (which of course, our team and every other NHL team needs)...maybe in the top 75 or so.     Good grief GMs just can't help themselves, and too many are paying their RFAs like they are UFAs.   
 

Cap percentage wise Miller is very very decent,  compared to the peak Sedin era or any cap contract the Canucks have had for a PPGish player.   Heck even the Sedins bridge they took around 8.35% each, and they had barely done a thing yet in this league.     Then their 5 year deal at 10.5ish% of course worked out really really well for us.   Miller actually did more, and is getting less then 10% his first year.  

 

Basically he's like Garland was for us last year, but more of a proven commodity.     Garland outperformed his contract as a winger.    Not many wingers scored as many EV points as he did, or drew as many penalties.    Miller absolutely left money on the table.   217 points over 202 games for us and counting.  

Edited September 15, 2022 by IBatch