A Very Hypothetical Look at JT Miller's Production in the future

[HKSR]

So very hypothetical here, so don't blast me too badly... but...

 

JT Miller is in his prime now for probably 3 seasons coming up (30, 31, 32yo), then production will likely begin to decline assuming he's no Pavelski.

 

I know this is arbitrary, but assuming he becomes a 0.50 PPG player by year 6 of his contract, let's say his decline in production begins with a 5% reduction in Year 2 of the new contract... then a 7.5% decline in Year 3, 12.5% decline in Year 4, etc. 

 

Here is what it would look like:

 

Year 1 of new contract (31yo):  1.0 PPG = 82 points

Year 2 of new contract (32yo):  0.95 PPG (-5%) = 78 points

Year 3 of new contract (33yo):  0.879 PPG (-7.5%) = 72 points

Year 4 of new contract (34yo):  0.769 PPG (-12.5%) = 63 points

Year 5 of new contract (35yo):  0.615 PPG (-20%) = 50 points

Year 6 of new contract (36yo):  0.5 PPG = 41 points

Year 7 of new contract (37yo):  0.5 PPG = 41 points

Year 8 of new contract (38yo):  0.5 PPG = 41 points

 

So with that being said, We would likely get 1C/2C production until Year 5.  Not until 36, 37, and 38yo would he drop into a 3C type of role. 

 

So from 2021-22 until 2027-28, we would have quite solid production out of him.  At that point, Petey will be 30, Hughes 29, Boeser 31, Horvat 33, and the key here is Demko 33.  Once Demko declines, the window is done. 

 

All I'm getting at is that Miller likely still has 6 solid years of hockey in front of him.  Maybe not at elite 1C level, but surely at 1C/2C level.  Assuming $8M to $8.5M AAV, I still think it's worth it. 

 

Besides, the upper cap limit by 2026-27 will probably be $90M anyways.  The cap is not staying flat for another 6 to 8 years.

 

EDIT:  I'll throw this in there for discussion too...

 

Year 1: $9M in salary

Year 2: $9M in salary

Year 3: $9M in salary

Year 4: $8M in salary

Year 5: $8M in salary

Year 6: $7M in salary

Year 7: $7M in salary

Year 8: $7M in salary

 

Total of $64M over 8 years.  That's an $8M AAV. 

 

Edited February 3, 2022 by HKSR

[hammertime]

Miller is a late bloomer. Many late bloomers continue to produce at a high rate into their mid 30's and beyond. Marchand, Bergeron, Pavelski, St Louis, Kadri's having a career year, Marleau broke out at 26 probably the best Miller comparable. 

 

Also you don't sign a 30 year old for 8 years that's just not wize.  

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, hammertime said:

Miller is a late bloomer. Many late bloomers continue to produce at a high rate into their mid 30's and beyond. Marchand, Bergeron, Pavelski, St Louis, Kadri's having a career year, Marleau broke out at 26 probably the best Miller comparable. 

 

Also you don't sign a 30 year old for 8 years that's just not wize.  

If that's the case, Miller would theoretically put up 60 to 70pts until he's 36 or 37.  As I recall going through the exercise with a couple other CDCers on here, a 65pt centre that does all the other things well (ie. faceoffs, PK, leadership, etc) is a solid 1C, so what's the issue with signing Miller long term then if he's a 1C until 36 or 37 years old?

[Bure_Pavel]

2 minutes ago, hammertime said:

Miller is a late bloomer. Many late bloomers continue to produce at a high rate into their mid 30's and beyond. Marchand, Bergeron, Pavelski, St Louis, Kadri's having a career year, Marleau broke out at 26 probably the best Miller comparable. 

 

Also you don't sign a 30 year old for 8 years that's just not wize.  

I think Marleau was a tier above Miller, Pavelski is a better comparable, but for every Joe there is a Jamie Benn or Okposo who drop off in their early thirties. One bad injury can speed things along too. Is the risk worth the reward if we can get a kings ransom for miller and address multiple other issues with the team?  

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Bure_Pavel said:

I think Marleau was a tier above Miller, Pavelski is a better comparable, but for every Joe there is a Jamie Benn or Okposo who drop off in their early thirties. One bad injury can speed things along too. Is the risk worth the reward if we can get a kings ransom for miller and address multiple other issues with the team?  

Benn and Okposo you say?  I raise you a Wheeler and a Giroux lol

[hammertime]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

Benn and Okposo you say?  I raise you a Wheeler and a Giroux lol

Ovechkin or no deal.

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, hammertime said:

Ovechkin or no deal.

SOLD

[Bure_Pavel]

Just now, HKSR said:

Benn and Okposo you say?  I raise you a Wheeler and a Giroux lol

Haha Im all in with this guy:

 

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Haha Im all in with this guy:

 

Too extreme... you gotta play within the rules, otherwise I throw this card out there:

 

[hammertime]

9 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

I think Marleau was a tier above Miller, Pavelski is a better comparable, but for every Joe there is a Jamie Benn or Okposo who drop off in their early thirties. One bad injury can speed things along too. Is the risk worth the reward if we can get a kings ransom for miller and address multiple other issues with the team?  

Less risk imo than signing Boeser at 7m. 

 

Miller is going to continue to produce well into our teams prime years by the time he starts to decline Pete will be pushing 30. Ridiculous to deal him for anything less than an absolute overpayment. 

[Bure_Pavel]

2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Too extreme... you gotta play within the rules, otherwise I throw this card out there:

 

Fair, I think I crossed the line.

[Bure_Pavel]

7 minutes ago, hammertime said:

Less risk imo than signing Boeser at 7m. 

 

Miller is going to continue to produce well into our teams prime years by the time he starts to decline Pete will be pushing 30. Ridiculous to deal him for anything less than an absolute overpayment. 

Not really, even at 8 years you have Boeser locked up from age 24-32ish (entire prime) and is probably good for around 30 goals per season in that time, maybe 20 goals in off years. I still believe his best hockey is infront of him with the aid of Brucey B, and probably new development staff.  

 

We are talking about the 2018 NHL Allstar MVP...

Edited February 3, 2022 by Bure_Pavel

[Rabbit]

It is not necessary to sign him to extend 8 years,

also the calculation formula might not be same for all players.

However, I still prefer to trade him out due to cap issue and the cores of Canucks.

[Makaramel MacKhiato]

I love Miller but the only right move is to trade him. His value is higher than ever, and you won't get the same payment for him next year as you would right now. 

[rychicken]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

So very hypothetical here, so don't blast me too badly... but...

 

JT Miller is in his prime now for probably 3 seasons coming up (30, 31, 32yo), then production will likely begin to decline assuming he's no Pavelski.

 

I know this is arbitrary, but assuming he becomes a 0.50 PPG player by year 6 of his contract, let's say his decline in production begins with a 5% reduction in Year 2 of the new contract... then a 7.5% decline in Year 3, 12.5% decline in Year 4, etc. 

 

Here is what it would look like:

 

Year 1 of new contract (31yo):  1.0 PPG = 82 points

Year 2 of new contract (32yo):  0.95 PPG (-5%) = 78 points

Year 3 of new contract (33yo):  0.879 PPG (-7.5%) = 72 points

Year 4 of new contract (34yo):  0.769 PPG (-12.5%) = 63 points

Year 5 of new contract (35yo):  0.615 PPG (-20%) = 50 points

Year 6 of new contract (36yo):  0.5 PPG = 41 points

Year 7 of new contract (37yo):  0.5 PPG = 41 points

Year 8 of new contract (38yo):  0.5 PPG = 41 points

 

So with that being said, We would likely get 1C/2C production until Year 5.  Not until 36, 37, and 38yo would he drop into a 3C type of role. 

 

So from 2021-22 until 2027-28, we would have quite solid production out of him.  At that point, Petey will be 30, Hughes 29, Boeser 31, Horvat 33, and the key here is Demko 33.  Once Demko declines, the window is done. 

 

All I'm getting at is that Miller likely still has 6 solid years of hockey in front of him.  Maybe not at elite 1C level, but surely at 1C/2C level.  Assuming $8M to $8.5M AAV, I still think it's worth it. 

 

Besides, the upper cap limit by 2026-27 will probably be $90M anyways.  The cap is not staying flat for another 6 to 8 years.

hypothetically, here is his output

 

Year 1 of new contract - 4 points in 2 games (2.0PPG)- retires

 

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, rychicken said:

hypothetically, here is his output

 

Year 1 of new contract - 4 points in 2 games (2.0PPG)- retires

 

Looks realistic to me!

[Biff Tannen]

Personally I'd lean towards trading Miller beacuse his value is high, he makes a lot of dumb mistakes, it kinda feels like he doesn't want to be here anymore, and there need to be changes. That said he's still one of the best players on the team and if there aren't any good enough offers then I'd keep him even if it means losing him for nothing at the end next season. I definitely wouldn't want to sign him 8x8 if that was what was needed to extend him.

 

I think I need a couple of dozen more Miller threads before deciding which side of the fence to fall.

[aGENT]

Than anyone thinks $8m+ on a mid 30's ~50 point (and dropping!) player is a good use of cap in the meat of our core's prime is... 

[JM_]

15 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Than anyone thinks $8m+ on a mid 30's ~50 point (and dropping!) player is a good use of cap in the meat of our core's prime is... 

hopefully there's a cup run in there tho 

[PetterssonOrPeterson]

As much as I've enjoyed the production Miller contribute to our team since the trade, I don't think his value will be any more than what it is right now.

He's statistically our best player, still has a year left on his bargain contract after this season, is at a ppg and 28 (turning 29 this year) in his prime.

 

There really hasn't been a better trade asset we've had in a while all things considered.

 

I just hope we really take advantage of this situation with our new management. Anxious to see what pans out.

 

 

Edited February 3, 2022 by PetterssonOrPeterson