Trading Elite Players in their Prime -- Are we expecting too much?

[HKSR]

20 minutes ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

 

 

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said:

What did JR just say?? And why he is the go to guy with GM Allvin hired...Sure hope its not just a puppet hire and we let him do what Allvin wants not let JR pull the  strings

See above... VC posted it in another thread...

 

"Everyone jumps to the conclusion we have to trade Miller or Boeser, it does not have to be a top player."

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by HKSR

[Toyotasfan]

If someone wants to give up an elite prospect like Lafrenier, of course, if a team like Toronto wants to give a package of 3 worthless Marlies , absolutely Not! Vegas is another team that has nothing in the cupboard, but continues to fleece teams for good players. Buffalo got fleeced for Eichel. Another player who if recovered will be in his prime.

[BPA]

Difference is what we want vs what will be offered.

 

I think NYR will only offer Lundqvist + 1st.  And if Canucks retains 50%, they’ll probably add Kratsov.

 

Prospects that are not with the big club yet.

[86Viking]

We don't know what a trade of a good player looks like...we always keep them past their best before date or let them walk away for nothing, let's hope the new GM sets this team up for success and doesn't stay status quo and keep re signing players over and over again...how about draft/scout and develop better!!

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Canuckster86 said:

We don't know what a trade of a good player looks like...we always keep them past their best before date or let them walk away for nothing, let's hope the new GM sets this team up for success and doesn't stay status quo and keep re signing players over and over again...how about draft/scout and develop better!!

I think this is the MOST important thing of all.  This is how your picks in later rounds turn into impact players.  Look at Pittsburgh as an example (ie. Guentzel and Rust).  I think there needs to be an overhaul in Abbotsford more than anything.

[spook007]

11 minutes ago, HKSR said:

See above... VC posted it in another thread...

 

"Everyone jumps to the conclusion we have to trade Miller or Boeser, it does not have to be a top player."

 

This was always going to be the case... the minute he says, we need to trade Miller or Boeser, their value drops like a rock...

The team wanting either player needs to know, they won't get them for free....

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, spook007 said:

This was always going to be the case... the minute he says, we need to trade Miller or Boeser, their value drops like a rock...

The team wanting either player needs to know, they won't get them for free....

He doesn't need to say anything, or as most GMs would most often say "We are looking at all our options." 

[spook007]

Just now, HKSR said:

He doesn't need to say anything, or as most GMs would most often say "We are looking at all our options." 

True, tbh that is kind of, what he is saying... But I think he is indirectly saying, if you want our good players its gonna cost you, otherwise don't waste our time...

Wither way he is not shutting down the option... 

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, spook007 said:

True, tbh that is kind of, what he is saying... But I think he is indirectly saying, if you want our good players its gonna cost you, otherwise don't waste our time...

Wither way he is not shutting down the option... 

No he's not shutting down the option, but the message is definitely softer than when he first arrived.  I think re-signing Miller is a definite possibility.

[Harold Drunken]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

So a bunch of you clearly want to trade Miller right now while he's just entering his prime. 

 

Out of curiosity, who else can you think of that was traded in their prime and was hugely beneficial for their team?

 

Ryan O'Reilly?  When he was traded from Colorado, he was 24 and yet to break out.  When he was traded from Buffalo, he landed Buffalo--  Sobotka, Berglund, Thompson and a 1st (Ryan Johnson)

 

Martin St Louis?  Nope, he was traded at the age of 38 years old (I was actually a bit surprised when I read this too lol).

 

Mark Stone?  For Lindberg, Brannstrom and a 2nd (Egor Sokolov) ... still a bit early, but man, that doesn't look good.

 

Matt Duchene at 26yo?  For Turris, Hammond, Bowers, Round 1 (Byram), Round 3 (Stienburg) ... if Byram doesn't get his concussion issues under control, this doesn't look good.

Matt Duchene at 28yo?  For Davidsson, Abramov, Round 1 (Lassi Thomson) ... yikes...

 

Max Pacioretty?  Tatar, Suzuki, 2nd (Fagemo) ... this looked a lot better a little while ago, but it's not looking so great anymore. 

 

Can you think of a player traded in their prime where the return actually benefited the team that much? 

 

Might be good to temper our expectations of a JT Miller trade.  I think we may be setup for disappointment. 

 

1 - Miller isn't "entering his prime", Miller turns 29 in a month - he's at the tail end of his prime. In the NHL when you're entering your thirties your prime is considered behind you. 

2 - Miller is a very good NHL player, using the term "elite" isn't accurate. McDavid, Mackinnon, Mathews, Ovechkin, Hedman, Kucherov etc. are "Elite" players. I love Miller but he's not elite, that term gets thrown around way too much. 

3 - Teams trade players in different stages of their career for different reasons. The fact that those teams above traded those players and whatever outcome it was is irrelevant because it all depends what the organizations direction and situation was. 

 

Your point is clear, if we trade Miller we're doomed and this team will be worse. In a short sighted approach maybe you're right. Long term, this team has to break the cycle of mediocrity and constant cap issues. Missing the playoffs 6 out of 7 years and having no cap room to improve the team isn't an acceptable situation to the new management team. When you have a player like Miller, who's on a good contact and playing the best hockey of his career, he's the most logical and beneficial piece to trade. If this team misses the playoffs again, what was the benefit of keeping him? Then he'll likely be traded next year and his value will be less as he's on the last year of his contract and due for a raise. Miller also has to "Want" to re-sign here which we don't know he does. That and there are already about 100 threads on trading Miller. 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Harold Drunken

[spook007]

Just now, HKSR said:

No he's not shutting down the option, but the message is definitely softer than when he first arrived.  I think re-signing Miller is a definite possibility.

Absolutely... They are unlikely to let him walk for free though, so the likelihood would probably small unless they know for sure he'll stay...

Pending on offer there is a possibility for it to happen now at t/d, in the summer or next t/d, so they are, regardless of their stance, in no hurry to ship Miller out... 

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Harold Drunken said:

1 - Miller isn't "entering his prime", Miller turns 29 in a month - he's at the tail end of his prime. In the NHL when you're entering your thirties your prime is considered behind you. 

2 - Miller is a very good NHL player, using the term "elite" isn't accurate. McDavid, Mackinnon, Mathews, Ovechkin, Hedman, Kucherov etc. are "Elite" players. I love Miller but he's not elite, that term gets thrown around way too much. 

3 - Teams trade players in different stages of their career for different reasons. The fact that those teams above traded those players and whatever outcome it was is irrelevant because it all depends what the organizations direction and situation was. 

 

Your point is clear, if we trade Miller we're doomed and this team will be worse. In a short sighted approach maybe you're right. Long term, this team has to break the cycle of mediocrity and constant cap issues. Missing the playoffs 6 out of 7 years and having no cap room to improve the team isn't an acceptable situation to the new management team. When you have a player like Miller, who's on a good contact and playing the best hockey of his career, he's the most logical and beneficial piece to trade. If this team misses the playoffs again, what was the benefit of keeping him? Then he'll likely be traded next year and his value will be less as he's on the last year of his contract and due for a raise. That and there are already about 100 threads on trading Miller. 

 

Wait... what?  If Miller isn't entering his prime, what years are prime years for a player?

 

Elite to me is a tier down from Franchise Players (ie. Mackinnon, Matthews, Hedman, Kucherov)... which is a tier down from Generational (McDavid, Crosby, Ovechkin).

 

So now it's irrelevant what happens if we trade Miller?  We just need to trade him because we need to trade him?

[khay]

17 minutes ago, BPA said:

Difference is what we want vs what will be offered.

 

I think NYR will only offer Lundqvist + 1st.  And if Canucks retains 50%, they’ll probably add Kratsov.

 

Prospects that are not with the big club yet.

I would look to see if we can upgrade Lundqvist to Schneider by offering Motte/other options? But if not, I would still go ahead and do that deal.

 

Lundqvist is a puck moving RD. Kravtsov is a skilled player. He could do well with our beloved Russian Podz. 

 

It looks like KHL season could end a bit early, which means Kravtsov could come over at the end of the KHL season and play some games here.

 

Schneider + Kravtsov + 1st is something I would be happy with. 

 

[Harold Drunken]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

Wait... what?  If Miller isn't entering his prime, what years are prime years for a player?

 

Elite to me is a tier down from Franchise Players (ie. Mackinnon, Matthews, Hedman, Kucherov)... which is a tier down from Generational (McDavid, Crosby, Ovechkin).

 

So now it's irrelevant what happens if we trade Miller?  We just need to trade him because we need to trade him?

Well, it sure isn't their thirties lol, and it sure isn't someone in their mid thirties on a long contract. 

 

Typically between 23-27 would be considered an NHL'ers prime, of course everybody is different and develops at different stages. This figure is arguable, but "coming into his prime" at 29 is odd since he's been in the league for 11 years  isn't exactly a spring chicken. I agree he's in his prime, but coming into it I would disagree, he's likely on the backside of it statistically.  

 

As for your last question, I think you're misunderstood what I said, you're assuming that if we trade Miller, this team will regret is and he'll go on to be a prolific player - correct? I said there's lots of reasons why teams trade certain players. And those trades you listed were different situations for different team and those examples because of that are irrelevant. 

[Kevin Biestra]

Paul Coffey

Dino Ciccarelli

Mike Gartner

Larry Murphy

Doug Gilmour

Joe Mullen

Pat LaFontaine

Bernie Nicholls

Pierre Turgeon

Chris Chelios

Patrick Roy

Dave Babych

Jimmy Carson

Phil Housley

Dale Hawerchuk

Trevor Linden

Kirk Muller

Stephane Richer

Tom Barrasso

Gary Suter

Roberto Luongo

Dave Andreychuk

Marcel Dionne

Denis Savard

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Kevin Biestra

[HKSR]

Just now, Harold Drunken said:

Well, it sure isn't their thirties lol, and it sure isn't someone in their mid thirties on a long contract. 

 

Typically between 23-27 would be considered an NHL'ers prime, of course everybody is different and develops at different stages. This figure is arguable, but "coming into his prime" at 29 is odd since he's been in the league for 11 years  isn't exactly a spring chicken. I agree he's in his prime, but coming into it I would disagree, he's likely on the backside of it statistically.  

 

As for your last question, I think you're misunderstood what I said, you're assuming that if we trade Miller, this team will regret is and he'll go on to be a prolific player - correct? I said there's lots of reasons why teams trade certain players. And those trades you listed were different situations for different team and those examples because of that are irrelevant. 

I've always viewed 28 to 32 as prime years...

 

If it's 23-27 as you say, why are we wasting Demko, Hughes, and Petey's prime years???

 

No, I'm saying if we trade Miller, don't necessarily expect that it will have a significant positive impact on the team.  In general, based on a historical view, it doesn't usually turn out that way.  In fact, most, if not all of the teams that traded away their elite prime player got worse, and are still struggling (Ottawa, Montreal, Buffalo, etc).

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

Paul Coffey

Dino Ciccarelli

Mike Gartner

Larry Murphy

Doug Gilmour

Joe Mullen

Pat LaFontaine

Bernie Nicholls

Pierre Turgeon

Chris Chelios

Patrick Roy

Dave Babych

Jimmy Carson

Phil Housley

Dale Hawerchuk

Trevor Linden

Kirk Muller

Stephane Richer

Tom Barrasso

Denis Savard

 

 

Cap era please lol...

[Harold Drunken]

23 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

Paul Coffey

Dino Ciccarelli

Mike Gartner

Larry Murphy

Doug Gilmour

Joe Mullen

Pat LaFontaine

Bernie Nicholls

Pierre Turgeon

Chris Chelios

Patrick Roy

Dave Babych

Jimmy Carson

Phil Housley

Dale Hawerchuk

Trevor Linden

Kirk Muller

Stephane Richer

Tom Barrasso

Denis Savard

 

 

Yeah, I mean those players haven't played in a long, long time. There are special players that played and played well late into their careers- I never said it didn't' happen...how many of those guys are hall of famers? That's obviously not the base line for careers....but the NHL has changed alot over the past 20 years and statistically the players under 30 are scoring more prolifically. Some of these guys retired 25+ years ago the NHL has changed alot. 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Harold Drunken

[Nucker 67]

41 minutes ago, HKSR said:

See above... VC posted it in another thread...

 

"Everyone jumps to the conclusion we have to trade Miller or Boeser, it does not have to be a top player."

 

That's true, Miller, Horvat and Schenn still have a year left after this one. Garland still has 4 more years left.  No rush to trade any of these guys.  Assuming Pettersson, Hughes and Demko are off the table. 

 

I think it could be: Pearson, Dickinson, Motte, Poolman and possibly Boeser, because he's going to be a bit expensive after this season, and JR wants to get faster.